Gold Technical Analysis and Trading StrategyGold Technical Analysis and Trading Strategy
🎯 Core Logic
Gold is currently maintaining an upward trend on the daily chart. The strategy is to follow this main trend and establish long positions based on key technical support areas. After reaching a new high, the price is undergoing a normal pullback and is currently testing the 4160-4165 range. This area represents a previous breakout platform and a short-term support/resistance level, forming initial support.
If the price retraces further, the 4140-4150 area will become the core defense line for the bulls. This range is supported by multiple technical indicators, including:
✨ Fibonacci 50% retracement level
📊 Daily moving averages
🌐 Bollinger Band middle line
When the price retraces to this level and shows signs of bottoming out, it is considered an ideal opportunity to add to positions!
💡 Trading Plan
🎪 Entry Area:
Initial long position with a small position size on the first pullback to 4160-4165.
Add to the long position on a pullback to the 4140-4150 range.
🛡️ Risk Management:
Stop-loss is set uniformly at 4136, located at the lower edge of the core support zone, effectively controlling risk.
🎯 Target Area:
Initial target is the previous high resistance level of 4200-4205.
Hold the position after a valid breakout, with further upside potential.
⚖️ Overall Assessment
This strategy is a trend-following trading plan. In an uptrend on the daily chart, positions are placed in batches at strong support levels, with clear risk boundaries and a reasonable risk-reward ratio. The effectiveness of the short-term bullish structure will be determined by whether the key support zone holds.
Futures market
Silver: Massive Cup & Handle Signals End of CorrectionXAGUSD is presenting a classic Cup and Handle continuation pattern that suggests the recent corrective phase may be over.
My previous outlook anticipated a deeper retracement down to at least the $44 level. However, the emergence of a clear Cup and Handle formation on the higher timeframes has shifted my bias considerably.
On the 4-hour chart, we have now secured a candle close above the "handle". I am currently waiting for the next candle to confirm this breakout before validating the next leg up.
If we successfully brake the neckline around $54, my projected target is $62.50.
USOIL – Quick Technical OutlookUSOIL has recovered from last week’s sell-off and is now attempting to hold above the $59.20–$59.40 zone. Price has reclaimed the short-term EMA, showing renewed bullish momentum after a period of consolidation.
To continue higher, buyers need a firm break above $59.60. Failure to hold the EMA could pull price back toward $58.80–$58.50 for a retest of demand.
Will gold prices fall after a surgeWhat will become ofthe marketGold Technical Analysis: Today, the gold market was paralyzed due to a data malfunction on the CME Group, leading to the closure of all gold trading. Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, trading was relatively quiet, and overall price fluctuations were not significant. However, the overall trend remains bullish. Looking at the intraday price action, fundamental uncertainties exacerbated market sentiment volatility, but the overall trading range remained within the expected range of 4220-4155. This indicates that with the US market closed today, market sentiment remains cautious, not blindly following sudden fundamental developments or completely deviating from technical expectations. However, this also reflects the current market's lack of direction and the risk of sudden price movements due to other factors.
Gold is still trading within an upward channel on the hourly chart. A pullback to the lower channel support suggests a continued bullish trend. During the US session, gold is expected to fall back to 4160, presenting an opportunity to buy on dips. The hourly chart also shows gold at the upper edge of a range-bound pattern, potentially forming a support/resistance level. Support lies around 4160, the starting point of the morning's rise, which could become a key level for determining future direction. Key resistance is around 4220; a break above this level could lead to a challenge of the previous high near 4245. The recent upward movement after the open may be due to pent-up energy from the past two days of consolidation. Currently, the market trend leans towards an upward consolidation, so our trading strategy should focus on the bullish direction.In summary, the recommended trading strategy for gold is to primarily buy on dips and secondarily sell on rallies. The key resistance level to watch in the short term is 4240-4250, while the key support level is 4170-4160. Please stay tuned for further updates.
Zhenzhou Rapeseed Oil OutlookZhengzhou rapeseed oil peaked in June 2022 like most other edible oil and appearing to make a 3-wave pattern which is currently heading towards wave b to the upside preceding wave c down.
The final leg of wave b exhibits a rising diagonal/wedge which implies imminent price decline potential.
The upside potential is suggested by the 2 blue bars as the market unfolds and would like to establish a confirmed top to estimate the next support level to the downside.
Gold Market Outlook – Personal View (Not Financial Advice)Price has been respecting a 4H upward trendline, but is currently sitting just below a 4H resistance zone. On the 1H timeframe, price is forming a series of higher highs, potentially aiming to sweep the liquidity sitting near the area of equal highs just below the 1H order block.
A mitigation of this 1H order block, followed by a lower-timeframe confirmation, could signal a move back down to retest the 4H trendline before continuing the overall bullish structure.
Alternatively, a clean break and retest of this resistance—turning it into new support—would indicate potential continuation of the uptrend on gold.
This analysis reflects my personal view of the market.
Last trading day, perfect profit-taking, strategy updated again
US stocks opened as usual today, but closed 3 hours early. Fridays are often prone to black swan events, and today, being the end of the month, the risk factors are even higher. In addition, the system was slightly unstable today; please operate with caution. Reviewing today's trades, the long positions established at the open rose strongly, bringing substantial profits. The short positions near 4190 were also timed precisely and successfully profited. Another long position established in batches at 4163 during the European trading session has also been successfully sold for profit. Today's trading was very successful; you can verify its accuracy through historical trading records. All the above trades were completed under your supervision.
US Stock Trading: Avoid blindly chasing highs. Pay close attention to the key resistance level in the 4200-05 area. If this psychological level holds, the market may challenge the previous high near 4230. Currently, the market trend leans towards increased volatility. We will continue to follow the trend, with support in the 4165-75 area and strong support at 4150.
I focus on short-term trading and clear market analysis. In short-term trading, there is no market that goes up or down forever, only the best entry point at each specific moment. Finding the rhythm and following the trend is the essence of trading. Currently, you must seize every opportunity to buy on pullbacks. If you are unable to execute trades precisely, try my method: first test the market with a small position, then add to your position on pullbacks. This way, you won't miss any opportunities. If you don't yet have a gold trading plan or strategy and are seeking stable and consistent returns, you can look for channel entry points. Let's work together to flexibly and steadily pursue higher profits in the ever-changing market!
Gold prices extended their monthly gains as the market focused oGold prices extended their monthly gains as the market focused on expectations of a Fed rate cut.
Market Recap: Spot gold prices rose further on Friday (November 28), poised for their fourth consecutive monthly gain. As of press time, gold was up 0.3% at $4170.34 per ounce, a new high since November 14, with a weekly gain expected to reach 3% and a cumulative monthly increase of 3.9%. The US dollar index weakened this week and is expected to record its worst weekly performance since the end of July, further supporting dollar-denominated gold.
Market Drivers: Strengthened Rate Cut Expectations
Investor optimism regarding a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve continued to rise, becoming the main driver of gold price increases. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders currently price in an 85% probability of a December rate cut, far higher than the 50% a week ago. Recent dovish comments from several Fed officials, including San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Governor Christopher Waller, have further strengthened market expectations for easing policies.
The Impact of the US Dollar and Liquidity
A weaker US dollar makes gold more attractive to holders of other currencies. Furthermore, a brief outage of the CME Group trading system, which suspended futures trading, exacerbated market volatility and amplified price movements due to the weak liquidity environment.
Structural Support
Continued demand for gold from global central banks, geopolitical risks, and concerns about the long-term stability of the US dollar collectively provide long-term support for gold. Multiple institutions predict that gold prices, after the recent correction, are likely to resume their upward trend and reach a new historical high next year.
Technical Analysis and Trading Strategy
Technical Outlook
Gold prices continued their upward trend this week, breaking through the $4110-$4130 range and gradually approaching the key psychological level of $4200. Although there is still room for short-term gains, the area above $4200 is considered a risk zone for bulls, and a pullback should be anticipated. With the monthly close approaching, significant market volatility is possible, and caution is advised regarding potential whipsaws.
Key Levels
Resistance: $4173-$4175, $4200
Support: $4150-$4155, $4110-$4100
Trading Recommendations
Short Strategy: Sell in batches in the $4180-$4185 range, with a stop loss of $8 and a target of $4165-$4150.
Long Strategy: Buy lightly in the $4150-$4155 range, with a stop loss of $8 and a target of $4170-$4185.
Note: The US market is closed early for Thanksgiving, and the market is expected to be range-bound. Investors should strictly control their position size, strictly adhere to stop-loss orders, and avoid chasing highs and lows.
Watch Japan's bond marketsThe recent selling in Japanese bonds caused all sorts of volatility in the prior couple of weeks with equities and the yen both dropping on mounting concerns about Japan’s fiscal position. That was before the relative calm this week, where the selling of JGBs paused and yields held steady. But this could be a temporary respite. Elevated inflation means the pressure is growing on the Bank of Japan to normalise its policy, while the government under the new Prime Minister Takaishi Sanae aims to spending a whopping 21.3 trillion yen in fiscal package, financed by yet more issuance of debt. This is worrying some investors who are concerns that increased spending by the government could strain Japan’s finances. Indeed, according Japan’s Ministry of Finance data, foreign investors sold Japanese bonds last week to the tune of 956.5 billion yen, their largest weekly net sale since October 25. Should the bond market rout continues, this will push up Japanese yields and borrowing costs for the government and raise serious concerns about Japanese assets, and potentially trigger a reverse carry trade that could hurt global markets.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
NQ1 - Bot Favourite Topping Pattern ?NQ1 Indices1
Notice the little descending line before the pop underway.
This is quite a bot favourite topping pattern with the textbook bullish pattern leading to a slightly higher high liquidity sweep - which here is into the higher liquidity zone above resistance.
So it is somewhat setting up for a pull back.
But until we see some upper wicks, I remain neutral 🧐.
GOLD - Bearish Channel But Retracement ExpectedGOLD (XAUUSD) Analysis
Welcome traders!
Here is my latest professional breakdown on GOLD (2H timeframe) based on market structure, trend channels, and price behavior.
📉 Current Market Structure
Gold is moving inside a clearly defined downward channel, respecting both the upper and lower trendlines. Price is currently trading near the lower boundary, showing signs of exhaustion after continuous bearish pressure.
📌 Key Observations
🔹 Strong descending trend with multiple touchpoints confirming a valid bearish channel
🔹 Price is consolidating near the lower trendline — indicating a potential temporary pullback
🔹 Expecting an upward correction toward the mid or upper channel before next move
🔹 Market may create higher-low rejections before continuing any bullish correction
📈 JT’s Expected Move
Based on current structure: [/b
Short-term: Possible bullish retracement inside the channel
Medium-term: Price might revisit the upper diagonal resistance
Watch for reaction zones and confirmation candles during pullbacks
This is not financial advice — just pure chart-reading based on technical structure and behavior.
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A cup in A cup - Bullish on Silver
I have trouble seeing silver tanking from here chart wise.
The monthly chart is showing two cup, maybe we get a handle but I wouldn't count on it much at this point.
On the 15-30 minutes, beautiful cup and the formation of the handle.
If you trust gold to make ATH in the near term, and you are generally bullish on commodity, Silver will be part of your portfolio right now.
If you want to be careful, Silver would be interesting after a confirmed closed candle breakout of 54.50$
The real downside potential here is a melt up of Stocks with commodity with cryptos. We are in high price territory. A correction is possible.
Silver trend continuation breakout supported at 5213 The Silver remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a corrective pullback within the broader uptrend.
Support Zone: 5213 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level.
A bullish rebound from 5213 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at:
5437 – initial resistance
5514 – psychological and structural level
5600 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed break and daily close below 5213 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward:
5155 – minor support
5100 – stronger support and potential demand zone
Outlook:
Bullish bias remains intact while the Silver holds above 5213. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Gold bullish breakout continuation supported at 4133The Gold remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a corrective pullback within the broader uptrend.
Support Zone: 4133 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level.
A bullish rebound from 4133 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at:
4218 – initial resistance
4268 – psychological and structural level
4315 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed break and daily close below 4133 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward:
4103 – minor support
4067 – stronger support and potential demand zone
Outlook:
Bullish bias remains intact while the Gold holds above 4133. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.






















