XAUUSD – Full Market Analysis and Trading Plan
XAUUSD – Full Market Analysis and Trading Plan
Date: 18 November 2025
Time: 3:30 PM
Current Market Price: 4,038
Trend Direction
4H Trend
The four-hour structure remains clearly bearish. Price dropped aggressively from the 4,245 weak high and created multiple downside breaks of structure. The major supply zones at 4,185 and 4,245 remain unmitigated, which means price can still retrace upward to collect liquidity before continuing downward. As long as price stays below 4,185, the higher-timeframe trend remains bearish.
1H Trend
On the one-hour chart, price made a short corrective pullback after sweeping liquidity at 4,016. There is a temporary CHoCH to the upside, but the overall structure remains bearish. Price is currently reacting from the 4,038–4,060 minor supply. Unless price cleanly breaks above 4,085 or 4,120, the one-hour trend remains bearish.
15M Trend
The fifteen-minute timeframe shows a bullish bounce from the 4,000 demand zone, but this move is corrective, not structural. Price is now inside intraday supply around 4,038–4,060, where another bearish rejection is likely. The short-term trend is bullish, but the main directional flow remains bearish.
Technical Analysis
Major Resistance Levels
4,060
4,085
4,120
4,185
4,245
Major Support Levels
4,016
4,000
3,995
3,965
3,860
3,840
Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
4H SMC
The 4,185 level is a clean bearish order block.
The 4,245 level is a weak high and a major liquidity pool.
The 4,000 level is a strong discount demand zone that caused a sharp bounce.
The 3,965 zone is a powerful mitigation level.
1H SMC
Valid bearish order blocks are located at 4,184 and 4,060.
Valid bullish order blocks are located at 4,016 and 4,000.
Fair value gaps exist between 4,085–4,100 and 4,016–4,028.
Liquidity rests above 4,060, 4,085, and 4,120, and below 4,016, 4,000, and 3,965.
CHoCH happened at 4,016, but it did not change overall market direction.
15M Entry Logic
For a sell entry: price must tap supply, form a bearish CHoCH, and show strong displacement.
For a buy entry: price must react from 4,016 or 4,000, form a bullish CHoCH, and fill imbalance.
Fibonacci Analysis
Using swing high 4,185 to swing low 3,995:
The 0.618 level aligns at 4,085.
The 0.705 level aligns at 4,108.
The 0.786 level aligns at 4,125.
These levels align perfectly with major supply zones, confirming a possible bearish continuation after retracement.
RSI Analysis
On 4H, RSI is still bearish and not oversold.
On 1H, RSI is neutral, showing possibility of a mild pullback.
On 15M, RSI is rising, indicating short-term bullish retracement.
Volume Analysis
Heavy selling volume on the downside moves confirms strong institutional pressure.
Low volume on pullbacks indicates that bullish moves are weak and corrective.
Fundamental Outlook
The US Dollar Index is currently gaining strength.
There is no major geopolitical pressure supporting Gold.
Federal Reserve expectations show no immediate rate cut, which normally adds bearish pressure on Gold.
Fundamentals remain mildly bearish.
High-Accuracy (95%) Trading Plan
Primary Trading Setup: Sell from Supply
Sell Zones: 4,060, 4,085, 4,120
Stop Loss: above 4,185
Take Profit Targets: 4,016, 4,000, 3,965, 3,860
This is the strongest trading plan because it aligns with all higher-timeframe structure, supply zones, imbalances, and Fibonacci retracement zones.
Secondary Trading Setup: Pullback Buy (Short-Term Only)
Buy Zones: 4,016 and 4,000
Stop Loss: below 3,965
Take Profit: 4,038 and 4,060
This is a temporary pullback buy setup, not a trend-direction buy.
Conclusion
The dominant market structure remains bearish across the 4H, 1H, and 15M.
Retracements are expected, but strong sell-side continuation is likely from the 4,060 to 4,120 supply region.
Downside targets include 3,965 and 3,860.
