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Gold prices fluctuated on November 20th, awaiting the non-farm pOn the hourly chart, gold continues to oscillate between 4000 and 4100. The current short-term trend is slightly weak, but not particularly strong. Before today's non-farm payroll data release, a strategy of buying low and selling high is recommended. Consider a small long position at 4040, targeting the 4080-4100 area. Short positions can be considered at resistance levels. The European session is expected to be relatively quiet; therefore, a cautious, small-position trading strategy is advised. Avoid chasing the market down; the potential downside is limited.
TVC:GOLDLong
by AnalystDavid_
1
Gold’s Pullback Bias PersistsGold is showing a trend of oscillating decline at low levels today. From the 4-hour chart perspective, gold is expected to trade in a range during the Asian and European sessions. Multiple layers of resistance lie at 4,125 and 4,187 above, making a short-term breakout quite challenging. Below, focus on the short-term support around 4,040 - 4,045. Technically, the bias remains towards a correction and pullback, with the key psychological level of 4,000 coming under repeated pressure. Specifically, we will patiently await the non-farm payrolls data tonight and adjust our strategy based on the actual figures. However, we also need to anticipate the possibility of a pre-data breakdown driven by market expectations before the release. Refrain from trading aggressively around the middle range—avoid chasing orders and wait patiently for key levels to enter positions. Buy 4040 - 4045 SL 4030 TP 4090 - 4100 - 4110 Sell 4100 - 4110 SL 4120 TP 4050 - 4040 - 4030
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by KingArthur_
XAGUSD – SILVER MARKET OUTLOOK ( SELL )Silver has tapped directly into our key reaction zone and activated the sell-stop setup exactly as anticipated. The precision of the move confirms the bearish intent we were watching for, giving us a clean entry with solid structure behind it. Our base target remains 2R, but with layered TP levels mapped out along the downside imbalance and prior demand breaks, this move has potential to stretch toward 4R or more if sellers maintain control. From a technical standpoint, we’re seeing a decisive rejection out of the upper liquidity pocket, followed by a clear rotation in market structure. Momentum is fading on the bullish side, and the most recent candle sequence shows controlled but persistent selling pressure. The break-and-retest behavior across intraday timeframes further strengthens the bearish continuation narrative. Trade management is, of course, up to the individual—taking profits at 2R is completely valid—but the chart is offering a clean path for extended downside if the order flow keeps aligning. Overall, Silver is presenting a sharp, well-structured short opportunity backed by liquidity sweep, momentum shift, and technical confluence. A strong chart for those following the downside bias.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by TickTradeSignals
XAUUSD – SHORT TRADE ACTIVATED PERFECTLYGold has moved exactly into our marked zone and has perfectly tapped the level we were stalking. That reaction gave us the confirmation we needed, and our sell-stop entry has now been triggered. From here, we’re targeting a minimum of 2R, but with multiple take-profit levels aligned with structure, volume pockets, and liquidity pools, there’s room to extend this move toward 4R+ if momentum follows through. Technically, price action is showing a clean rejection wick from the supply zone, followed by a shift in market structure on the lower timeframes. We also have declining bullish momentum and evidence of sellers stepping in, with the impulsive leg now breaking through minor intraday supports. As always, how you manage the trade is personal—locking profits at 2R is completely valid—but the chart currently supports a deeper corrective leg if bearish order flow continues. Overall, it’s a strong setup with a clear narrative: exhaustion at the highs, liquidity grab, structure break, and continuation potential. A very clean look for traders following the trend shift.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TickTradeSignals
No New Dividend Payouts Are Latest Sign of Wall Street SluggishUnderstanding Dividends and Dividend Market Futures A dividend is the distribution of corporate earnings to eligible shareholders. Dividend payments and amounts are determined by a company's board of directors. Dividends must be approved by the shareholders by voting rights. Although cash dividends are common, dividends can also be issued as shares of stock. The dividend yield is the dividend per share, and expressed as a percentage of a company's share price. Many companies - constituents of S&P500 Index still DO NOT PAY dividends and instead retain earnings to be invested back into the company. The S&P500 Dividend Points Index (Annual) tracks the total dividends from the constituents of the S&P 500 Index. The index provides investors the opportunity to hedge or take a view on dividends for U.S. stocks, independent of price movement, as S&P500 Dividend Index Futures is a market expectation of how many points Dividends Index will collect by the end of year. Using the S&P500 Dividend Index as the underlying in financial products, investors can hedge or gain exposure to the dividend performance of the S&P500 Index. Understanding S&P500 Annual Dividend Index Futures The S&P500 Annual Dividend Index futures (main technical graph is for 2029 S&P500 Annual Dividend Index Futures) calculates the accumulation of all ordinary gross dividends paid on the S&P500 index constituent stocks that have gone ex-dividend over a 12-month period. The amounts are expressed as dividend index points. The underlying index for S&P500 Annual Dividend Index futures is the S&P500 Dividend Index. The methodology for the index can be found here at S&P Global website. Dividend index points specifically refer to the level of index points that are directly attributable to the dividends of index constituents. They typically only capture regular dividends and calculate this on the ex-date of the respective constituents within each index. In general, “special” or “extraordinary” dividends are not included as dividend points in the respective annual dividend indices. Futures contract Unit is $ 250 x S&P 500 Annual Dividends Index. Technical considerations on a Galaxy of S&P500 Annual Dividend Index Futures S&P500 Annual Dividend Index Futures. The year 2029. Flat 18-months resistance under 80 points has been detected. S&P500 Annual Dividend Index Futures. The year 2028. Flat 18-months resistance, also under 80 points has been detected. S&P500 Annual Dividend Index Futures. The year 2027. Flat 18-months resistance, also under 80 points has been detected. Conclusion The graphs above indicate on a strong flat 80-point resistance over the next 1 to 3 years time span. No new dividends distributions are latest sigh of Wall Street sluggish. -- Best wishes, @PandorraResearch Team
CME:SDAZ2029
by PandorraResearch
Report 20/11/25Report summary: Markets are trading on three intertwined tapes: (i) AI/capex financing (chip demand, data-center buildouts, and the credit plumbing behind them), (ii) policy/geo realignment (US–Saudi thaw, EU raw-materials and defense industrial policy, UK market-structure tweaks, ECB supervision stance), and (iii) macro visibility (US data delays, BOJ/JGB spillovers, and the dollar path). Into these, the near-term impulse is mixed-to-supportive for cyclicals and defense/AI infrastructure, constructive for EU banks on potential supervisory waivers, and two-way for duration and the dollar as investors “trade in the fog” of delayed US labor data and headline-sensitive AI prints. The cross-asset implication is a choppy but upward bias for the Dow (industrial, defense, energy tilt) and a more binary S&P/Nasdaq tape around mega-cap AI catalysts; USDJPY remains skewed higher with intervention risk; crude is range-bound with a geopolitical floor; and gold is a hedge bid that ebbs/flows with DXY swings and Middle-East optics. US data release slippage and the AI funding debate keep volatility elevated into year-end. Market context and immediate reactions US macro visibility deteriorated after the government shutdown forced BLS to delay key October labor detail (unemployment rate and labor-force stats) and reschedule the consolidated jobs release to mid-December. That reduced the data the Fed can lean on for the December meeting and helped curb market conviction on an additional cut. Equities chopped; the dollar firmed on the day of the announcement; and positioning clustered around a “binary” AI earnings tape (notably Nvidia). Parallel to the tape-driven swings, the financing burden for the AI buildout is now a core macro theme: with data-center capex needs measured in the trillions through 2028 and only about half covered by projected operating cash flow, credit markets and nontraditional sources (including retirees’ savings via asset owners) are being courted to fill the gap. That credit story is feeding through to spreads (e.g., Oracle CDS) as hyperscalers and suppliers term out funding for AI infrastructure. Policy and geopolitics what changed and why it matters US–Saudi thaw and deal corridor. Elon Musk’s attendance at the White House dinner for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman underscores a pragmatic thaw around capital, AI, semis and energy. Subsequent reporting framed a US ask for up to a $1 trillion Saudi investment package, with the Oval Office optics downplaying the Khashoggi issue, raising both deal momentum and reputational risk premia. Net market take: constructive for US defense primes, AI infrastructure suppliers, select chip names exposed to hyperscaler/sovereign orders, and US-Saudi critical-minerals tie-ups; headline risk remains. EU critical-minerals (CRM) stockpiling and a central buying “centre.” Brussels is preparing a coordinated purchase/stockpile mechanism, with price-floor options and fast-track supply treaties (e.g., Brazil, South Africa) to reduce China dependency across REEs, lithium and copper. This is structurally supportive for EU miners, selective western REE producers, and diversified CRM ETFs; tactically it puts a floor under tight CRM markets into 2026 while Brussels builds inventories and signing capacity. ECB supervision and trapped capital. The ECB’s top supervisor, Claudia Buch, signaled support for waivers that reduce national ring-fencing of capital/liquidity, a long-standing drag on pan-EU banking ROEs and cross-border M&A. If translated into policy, this lowers the cost of equity for consolidators, improves capital mobility, and lifts optionality for deals, supportive for the Euro Stoxx Banks beta. EU defense industrial push. The Commission is urging members to earmark more spend for “disruptive” dual-use tech (drones/AI/robotics) and is standing up a €1 bn fund-of-funds to scale defense startups, while streamlining procurement to favor European suppliers. Expect a persistent bid under EU primes and dual-use midcaps, and a livelier M&A pipeline between deep-tech startups and Tier-1/Tier-2 defense. UK market structure and sports financing. The FCA’s plan for a UK consolidated equities tape by 2027 (projected costs ~£93m and sizable longer-term benefits) should tighten spreads, lift liquidity discovery, and incrementally support London listings; it may also pressure legacy data-vendor monetization models. Separately, Wimbledon’s debentures look set for an exemption from a face-value resale cap, a relief for AELTC’s capex funding model (roofs, upgrades) via preserving secondary-market premia. US tech/antitrust and governance. Meta’s decisive court win against the FTC reduces breakup risk and lightens the regulatory overhang for mega-cap ad platforms, with read-across to multiples and capex confidence. In parallel, Larry Summers resigned from OpenAI’s board following the release of Epstein-related emails, primarily a governance optics event with limited operational impact, but it keeps AI-policy scrutiny in the headlines. Private-credit retail products under scrutiny. Blue Owl terminated a merger between two credit vehicles that would have crystallized a notional ~20% loss for certain investors due to a listed BDC discount, an emblematic case for the gating/valuation risks in semi-liquid private credit offered to individuals. Watch sentiment and flows around BDC discounts/premiums. Professional-services consolidation. BDO is accelerating multi-country mergers (e.g., a UK–Ireland cluster dubbed “Project Velvet”) toward a more unified global model, another signal that AI tooling and multinational client demands are forcing federated pro-service networks to centralize. Expect competitive pressure on mid-tier rivals and a stronger European deal cycle in audit/consulting adjacencies. Asia policy and JGBs. Japan’s supplementary-budget chatter ballooned (≈¥25 tn discussed), lifting the fiscal risk premium and pushing 10-year JGBs toward multi-decade highs and the yen beyond ¥155. Base case: higher USDJPY with elevated MoF intervention risk if volatility spikes; spillovers to global term premia are modest but non-zero when Tokyo syndicates longer-dated paper. Sovereign capital to frontier AI. Saudi-backed Humain is leading a $900 mn round in Luma AI (valuation >$4 bn) and building Project Halo data-centers; the package includes Arabic/regional models. The through-cycle read is sustained GPU and power-equipment demand and a widening sovereign-tech axis in AI video and “world-model” training. FX reserve managers and the dollar. Temasek’s CEO flagged that hedging costs on USD assets have risen enough to impair net returns, prompting a greater pursuit of “natural hedges.” Marginally, that argues for selective rotation into non-USD assets and supports EM Asia FX on the margin when risk is calm. Asset-by-asset: directional takeaways and levels to watch XAUUSD (Gold). Two-way. On one side, the US–Saudi deal corridor and EU defense/CRM policies keep a geopolitical hedge bid alive; on the other, a firming dollar into data-scarce Fed communication can cap upside in the very near term. Use dips toward support as optionality hedges into event-risk weeks; fade spikes if DXY strength persists and US real yields re-firm. S&P 500. Skewed to chop with upside bias if AI prints and funding optics remain orderly. Meta’s legal overhang eased, which is constructive for mega-cap ad/AI complexes; however, the AI-capex funding debate and data-center execution hiccups argue for selectivity beneath the index (own cash-generative “picks & shovels” and grid/power names alongside high-quality AI beneficiaries). Dow Jones. More resilient profile than the S&P into year-end as defense, industrial power equipment, and diversified financials benefit from policy tailwinds (US–Saudi defense/energy, EU defense, financing for AI infrastructure). Pullbacks on macro headlines remain buyable for balanced mandates. USDJPY. Upward bias (yen weaker) as JGB yields and fiscal supply concerns rise, but watch for MoF intervention thresholds and any BOJ signaling shifts. Tactical longs need hard stops and a plan for rapid reversals around headline-driven yen spikes. DXY. Range-to-firmer near term given US data delays/uncertainty and safe-haven demand during AI “binary” weeks; medium-term, watch reserve-manager hedging costs and any rotation toward natural hedges that could curb dollar rallies at the margin. Crude Oil. Supported by geopolitics and US–Saudi rapprochement optics, but capped by global growth moderation and high inventories in some hubs. Expect range-bound trading with a geopolitical floor; optionality structures (collars) suit producers and hedgers here. Strategic forecasts, fiscal/political implications, risks, opportunities Forecasts. Policy momentum in Europe (CRM stockpiles, defense tech, supervisory waivers) extends a multi-quarter reflation in EU industrials/defense and improves the medium-term ROE profile for cross-border banks. US–Saudi ties reopen capital and tech channels that anchor multi-year demand for defense platforms, nuclear/SMR components, GPUs, and power equipment. The US macro path is noisier until the consolidated jobs print in December; expect the Fed’s guidance to emphasize data dependence with lower conviction on the next cut. Fiscal/political. Japan’s larger-than-expected supplementary budget tilts fiscal-dominance narratives back into the JGB curve; Brussels’ CRM and defense initiatives formalize industrial policy at scale; London’s consolidated tape is a capital-markets competitiveness gambit ahead of EU implementation. US–Saudi deals draw Congressional and media scrutiny, but bipartisan support for defense/AI jobs tempers pushback. Risks. (1) AI-capex financing “accident” (credit-spread repricing, sudden capex deferrals); (2) policy execution risk in Brussels (delays dilute CRM/defense impact); (3) US–Saudi optics (sanctions or hearings) that slow deal pipelines; (4) BOJ/MoF shock (stealthy tightening or forceful yen intervention) that ripples through global rates/FX; (5) US data vacuums that amplify volatility and whipsaw Fed-cut odds. Opportunities. Favor barbelled exposure: high-quality AI “picks & shovels” (grid/power/turbines, select semis with backlog visibility), US defense primes and EU dual-use suppliers with backlog and pricing power, EU banks with cross-border optionality, miners and CRM processors aligned to EU stockpiles, and selective EM FX/equities as reserve managers diversify hedges. Use options to navigate AI-event gamma and yen-intervention risk.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Buranku
GOLD Trading Opportunity! BUY! My dear followers, I analysed this chart on GOLD and concluded the following: The market is trading on 4062.9 pivot level. Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation. Target - 4083.0 Safe Stop Loss - 4050.2 About Used Indicators: A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by AnabelSignals
1
Is gold poised for a decline? I. Technical Analysis Daily Chart Structure: Gold has recently shown a volatile pattern. Although it closed with positive candles in the last two trading sessions, the upward momentum was limited, failing to form a strong unilateral uptrend. The daily chart suggests a potential bearish continuation pattern, indicating the possibility of further downward adjustments. Key Support Level: 3998-4000 (Tuesday’s low). Key Resistance Level: 4110-4130 (Recent high). Hourly Chart Structure: During the Asian and European sessions, gold is expected to fluctuate within the 4000-4110 range. The upper boundary resistance is near 4110, while the lower boundary support lies around 4000-4020. Technical indicators suggest a higher probability of a corrective decline, with the 4100 level acting as a critical resistance. Weekly and Longer-Term Trends: The weekly chart repeatedly shows pullbacks after testing higher levels, indicating strong selling pressure. The Bollinger Bands are contracting, signaling a consolidation phase ahead of a potential breakout, which may be delayed until next week. The broader trend remains bearish, with a possibility of breaking below the 3887 support to open further downside space. Trading Approach: Short-term strategy: Focus on selling at highs and buying at lows as a secondary approach. Swing trading: Maintain a bearish bias. Key Range: 3970-4110. A breakout should be followed up accordingly. II. Fundamental Analysis Federal Reserve Policy Stance: The Fed’s recent hawkish tone has reinforced expectations of prolonged tightening, putting downward pressure on gold. A stronger U.S. dollar further limits gold’s upside potential. Economic Data and Events: Volatility is likely to intensify around data releases, with potential for sharp price swings driven by institutional activity. Market Sentiment and Capital Flows: Gold’s recent price action lacks continuity, and institutional players may amplify volatility during data-heavy periods. Exercise caution during Thursday and Friday’s data releases. Use light positions and strict stop-losses. III. Trading Strategy Recommendations Short (Sell) Strategy: Entry Zone: 4100-4110 (sell in batches). Stop-Loss: 4118-4120. Target: 4060-4040, extending to 4030 if breached. Long (Buy) Strategy: Entry Zone: 3970-3980 (buy in batches). Stop-Loss: 3960. Target: 4030-4050, extending to 4100 if breached. Risk Control Tips: Set strict stop-losses to avoid holding losing positions. Trade with light positions ahead of key data releases. Monitor range breakouts and follow the trend if confirmed. IV. Summary Gold is currently in a consolidation phase, awaiting a directional breakout. Technically, the bias is bearish, while fundamentals are influenced by the Fed’s hawkish stance and upcoming economic data. Trading Strategy: Prioritize selling on rallies, with buying on dips as a secondary approach. Focus on the 3970-4110 range for breakout signals. Exercise caution during high-impact data releases. Strictly manage position sizes and risk.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by The_Golden_Perspective
GOLD-Statistical Price Response ModelToday, we present the culmination of 2.5 years of intensive research, which has led to the development of an advanced statistical methodology for the precise identification of price levels (Supply and Demand). This study is founded upon a core premise: Price movement is not random, but rather a logical and measurable response to predefined areas that represent points of market equilibrium and oscillation. We relied on a Rigorous Quantitative Historical Analysis of each individual price level (Support or Resistance), processing a matrix of Statistical Variables to deduce the Probability of the price's interaction with these levels. 🧮 Axes of Systematic Statistical Analysis: The research focused on answering the following critical questions for every major level: 1- Breakout Event: Has the resistance or support level been confirmed as breached? ----*In Case of Breakout (Yes): --------*Time-to-Revisit ($T_R$): What is the time period ($t$) taken for the price to return to the breached level after moving away? --------*Post-Breakout Momentum ($M_{PB}$): What is the percentage change in price after the breakout and confirmed movement away? ----*In Case of Reversal (No): --------*Time-to-Revisit ($T_R$): What is the time period ($t$) taken for the price to return to the level after reversing from it? --------*Reversal Magnitude ($R_{Mag}$): What is the percentage magnitude of the reversal achieved after touching the level? This data was processed using Mathematical Models and Inferential Statistics, allowing us to construct a Price Map that is nearly a reflection of the Empirical Truth of market movement. 📈 The Call for Observation and the Proposed Trading Methodology: 🎯 Your Task: We invite you to engage in Systematic and Objective Observation only. Monitor the future performance of the price and its Interaction and Response to the levels shown on the attached chart. We ask only that you witness the power of this statistical model. 📐 Geometric Sequence Integration (Fibonacci): To enhance the Trading Appeal and provide an additional framework, Fibonacci Retracement levels have been integrated between every major price level. 📘 Systematic Decision Rule (Algorithmic Trading Rule): Adopt a simple yet effective rule to filter your trades: ----*Bearish Indicator: If the price is below the 50% Fibonacci level (the geometric center between the two levels), look for Short Positions, targeting the next lower level. ----*Bullish Indicator: If the price has broken the 50% Fibonacci level, look for Long Positions, targeting the next higher level. ⚠️ Crucial Validation: The Breakout Confirmation must be validated by a full Price Candle Close above or below the level. An instantaneous price spike is not considered a valid signal for applying the rule. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This methodology represents a qualitative leap in market analysis, transforming Supports and Resistances from mere lines into High-Probability Decision Zones backed by mathematical logic. YOU CAN CLICK TO SEE CHART : www.tradingview.com
CAPITALCOM:GOLD
by MANAGE-MY-TRADING
XAU/USD – Short-Term Pullback ExpectedXAU/USD – Short-Term Pullback Expected Before Testing Major Supply Zones Gold (XAU/USD) continues to trade within a corrective structure after rejecting lower liquidity near 4,040. The recent price behavior on the H1 timeframe suggests a potential bullish retracement leg before sellers attempt to regain control. The chart shows a sequence of impulsive bearish moves followed by corrective bullish legs, indicating that overall market sentiment is still dominated by the downside, but with room for recovery toward key supply areas. Key Technical Zones Resistance (Supply) 4,118 – 4,135: First corrective target; aligns with recent internal structure highs 4,200 – 4,225: Mid-term supply zone – high confluence from previous distribution 4,255 – 4,275: Major H1 supply block; strong bearish reaction previously originated here Support 4,040 – 4,050: Intraday support where buyers previously defended liquidity 3,995 – 4,010: Deeper correction zone if bearish momentum expands Technical Confluence Trendline structure: Market is shaping a corrective wave, suggesting a push toward 4,118–4,135 before selling pressure resumes. EMA20 & EMA50: Price remains below both EMAs, confirming bearish bias, but space for an upward correction remains. RSI: Neutral zone with slight bullish divergence – early signal of retracement potential. Fibonacci: 38.2% and 50% retracement of the recent selloff align near 4,130 and 4,165, strengthening resistance expectations. Trading Scenarios Scenario 1: Bullish Correction Toward 4,118–4,135 Entry: Buy on minor dips toward 4,050 – 4,060 Target: 4,118 (conservative) → 4,135 (extension) Stop Loss: Below 4,035 This strategy follows the projected upward correction path before the market meets heavy supply. Scenario 2: Sell From Key Resistance This is the higher-probability play, aligning with the broader bearish market structure. Entry: Look for bearish rejection around 4,118–4,135 Target: 4,060 → 4,045 Stop Loss: Above 4,150 A strong reaction in this zone may confirm continuation of the bearish leg. Scenario 3: Breakout Beyond 4,200 If price breaks and closes above 4,200, bullish recovery gains momentum. Reversal targets: 4,225 → 4,255 → 4,275 Market Outlook Gold remains in a broader bearish environment, but the corrective structure suggests that buyers may temporarily lift price toward the resistance band before continuation. The best opportunities appear to be fading rallies near the supply zones. If you find this analysis useful, save it and follow for more daily gold strategies and technical insights.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion