The core driving factors of the short-term reboundRelease of demand for oversold rebound
Gold plummeted rapidly from the 4211 high to around 4032, with a decline of over 3% in just 1-2 trading days, setting a record for the largest single-day decline in recent times. After the short-term selling pressure was concentratedly released, there is a technical recovery demand. The 1-hour RSI indicator quickly rebounded from the oversold zone, and the bearish momentum weakened. Short-term funds entered the market to buy bottomed out, promoting a phased recovery of the price, forming the first wave of rebound momentum.
The expectation of interest rate cuts has not been completely reversed
Although the signals released by Fed officials were hawkish, causing the probability of a December interest rate cut to drop from 62% to below 50%, the market's long-term expectation for the Fed's easing cycle has not changed - the US debt scale is high (over 36 trillion US dollars), the fiscal deficit continues to expand, and combined with core inflation approaching the 2% target, the long-term interest rate cut logic still exists. Some funds still adhere to the "policy easing" main line, and they buy low after the price correction, providing funds support for the rebound.
Central bank gold purchases form a bottom support
The long-term support of global central bank gold purchases remains unchanged. In the third quarter of 2025, global central banks' net gold purchases were 220 tons, an increase of 10% year-on-year. The People's Bank of China has continuously increased its holdings for 12 consecutive months, and the 4000-4100 US dollar range has become the core "buy low" area for the official purchase. Strong physical demand has limited the downward space of gold prices, providing a safety cushion for the short-term rebound and preventing the price from continuing to fall in a single direction.
Gold has shown a "first rebound followed by decline" oscillating pattern in the short term. The core issue lies in the "short-term technical recovery" versus "long-term negative factors intensifying". During the rebound phase, it is crucial to closely monitor the resistance signals at the 4150-4180 range, as this is the core window for setting short positions; during the decline phase, it is necessary to pay attention to the effectiveness of the 4080 key support level, and if it is broken, one can increase positions accordingly.
In the operation, one needs to closely follow the policy signals of the Federal Reserve, changes in trading volume, and the progress of geopolitical situations, and flexibly adjust the stop-loss and take-profit positions. The core principle is "not to short ahead of time, not to blindly chase long positions", only entering the market after a clear signal of the shift between bulls and bears, and responding to market fluctuations with strict risk control discipline to achieve short-term stable gains.
Gold trading strategy
buy：4075-4085
tp:4100-4120-4200
sl:4060
