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Projecting Interest Rates Beyond the Current Fed RegimeCBOT: 10-Year T-Notes Futures ( CBOT:ZN1! ) Since hitting an all-time high (ATH) of 48,431 on November 12th, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1,841 points, or -3.8%, to 46,590 on Monday. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite has lost over 1,300 points, or -5.5%, from its ATH of 24,020. The S&P 500 is down 250 points, or -3.6%, from 6,920. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P reached their ATH on October 29th. Cryptocurrencies have been harder hit than stocks. Today, Bitcoin prices dropped below $90,000, a whopping 29% drawdown since the King of Crypto hit ATH of $126,080. An entire year of gains has been erased. Two key market forces are driving the US stock market downtrend. Firstly, Wall Street grew worried about the AI bubble bursting. Earlier this month, “Big Short” investor Michael Burry grabbed headlines after his Scion Investment’s 13F filing showed bearish bets on Nvidia (NVDA) and Palantir (PLTR). Last week, Softbank offloaded all 32.1 million shares of NVDA it held. This is followed by Peter Thiel’s hedge fund, which sold off all 537,742 shares of NVDA on Monday. On my October 27th commentary, I discussed that heavy exposure in High Tech stocks (64%) made Nasdaq very venerable. The Dow could weather the downturn better with a lower weight (21%). The recent market trend resonates with my theory. Secondly, the Federal Reserve has turned hawkish on monetary policy. The Fed made the last rate cut on October 29th, without the aid of updated economic data due to US government shutdown. Fed officials have warned that further rate cuts are not a sure thing if new data does not support policy easing. On October 27th, the odds for a December cut were 98.5%, according to data from the CME FedWatch tool. Today, it went down sharply to just 57%. Not cutting has the same effect as raising expected interest rates, which tends to drive down stock valuation. www.cmegroup.com The Future is Less Uncertain than the Present In my view, the market obsession with what the Fed Chair says day by day is overblown. Anybody remember a quote from Alan Greenspan? While modeling short-term decisions into long-term trends, we risk overlooking the impact from changing of guards at the Fed. The current Fed Chair’s term will end in May 2026. Between now and then, there are four FOMC rate-setting meetings: December 9-10, 2025, January 27-28, March 17-18 and April 28-29 in 2026. What could possibly happen in four meetings: • If the Fed is hawkish and refuses to cut rates, the policy Fed Funds rate could stay at the current 375-400 bp range. • If the Fed turns dovish and cut 25bp every time, Fed Funds could be at 275-300 bp. In recent meetings, the Fed no longer had consensus in its policy votes. Each decision is like a toss-up. If we only focus on the short term, trading results could be very volatile. The next Fed Chair will be nominated by President Trump and confirmed by the Senate. We know for a fact that the President favors aggressive rate cuts to support the economy. Only someone who is 100% in agreement with the President could get nominated. Latest news indicates that five candidates have made it to the final list to be considered for a Fed Chair nomination. They are Michelle Bowman, Christopher Waller, Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett and Rick Rieder. If the Senate confirmation gets delayed, the President could pick a current Fed governor as Acting Chair. Whoever that may be, he or she will have to align with the President in terms of the direction of monetary policy. Gone with the independent central bank. Even though we have no idea what happens next month, we could still form a good estimate of what the Fed will do in the next 2-1/2 years, starting in June 2026. In my opinion, the expected policy rate will eventually go down to 1.0-1.5%, or even lower. This is not what the Fed currently says. Instead, I am forming an opinion based on a new Fed regime with a new Chair and multiple Fed governors supporting rate cuts. With that in mind, we can now discuss trade strategies going beyond the next Fed meeting. We don’t have to wait a long time for everything to move in places. Once a new Fed Chair candidate is announced, the market will start pricing a different interest rate trajectory. Latest news suggests that the President may be meeting with three candidates after the Thanksgiving holiday. Trading with 10 Year T-Notes Futures As I mentioned earlier, US stocks have the risk of AI bubble bursting. We could wait a while to see how things play out. My trade idea today is a pure play on interest rates. We know that Treasury prices are negatively correlated with interest rates. When rates go down, prices will likely go up. Our major chart illustrates this relationship. CBOT 10-Year Treasury Notes Futures have a face value of $100,000 at maturity. The March 2026 contract (ZNH6) is currently quoting 112'240, equivalent to $112.75. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $1,875. The 10Y futures are one of the most liquid futures contracts in the world. According to CME Group data, trade volume on November 17th was 1,779,688 contracts. Open Interest (OI) is 5,748,386 contracts at market close. OI is notional term is $574.8 billion. In the next three FOMC meeting cycles, the contract prices could go either way depending on how the Fed votes. However, as soon as the President nominate his Fed Chair candidate, Treasury prices would get a big boost as the market will price in the new and lowered expected interest rates. Hypothetically, if ZNH6 moves up 1% to $113.8775, the $1.1275 price gain would translate into $1,127.5 for a long futures position, given each dollar gain in price quotation equals $1,000 per contract. Using the initial margin of $1,875 as a cost base, the trade would produce a theoretical return of 60.1% (=1127.5/1875). The long futures position will lose money if the Fed puts rate cuts on hold, and the new Fed Chair candidate is not announced in the next three months. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
The Calm Before the Expansion — Gold Pre-Setup MapGold rejecting the Asian Range low and showing early signs of reversal. Missed the London setup after oversleeping, but tonight I’m watching for a retrace back into the H1 FVG + lower HVN. That pocket sits just under 50% of yesterday’s Asian range and lines up with weekly volume sitting just outside of value. If price pulls back into that zone and shows displacement, I’m looking for continuation to the upside and potential expansion toward the H4 FVG above. Premature breakouts tonight may be traps.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by DWoodz
NQ Daily Outlook | November 19, 20251H timeframe — using the 50 EMA (black) for trend + 5/10 EMAs (white) for momentum/BOS. Quick read: We’re still under the 50 EMA, and the whites are curled down. Structure is still making lower-highs and lower-lows, so momentum stays bearish for now. Bearish idea (favored) If we stay under the 5/10 EMAs and reject the 50 again, I’m looking for a BOS down and continuation into the lows. Bullish idea If we reclaim the whites, break a lower-high, and hold above the 50 EMA, then I’ll flip long and look for a clean BOS up. Bias: Bearish until price breaks structure to the upside and holds above the 50 EMA.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by icixbt
Nov 19, 2025 - XAUUSD GOLD Analysis and Potential Opportunity📊 Analysis: There are early signs of downside exhaustion on the higher timeframes. For now, I’ll use 4030 as the main bull–bear pivot: • Above 4030, the plan is to buy pullbacks into support. • Below 4030, the plan shifts to selling rallies into resistance. If price drops toward 3998–4000, watch this support zone closely — • If it holds, bulls still have a chance. • If it breaks, bearish momentum will strengthen significantly. 🔍 Key Levels to Watch: • 4096 – Resistance • 4089 – Resistance • 4082 – Resistance • 4075 – Resistance • 4065 – Support • 4055 – Support • 4030 – Bull–bear pivot • 3998–4000 – Psychological support zone 📈 Intraday Strategy: SELL: If price breaks below 4030 → target 4025, with further downside toward 4020, 4015, 4007 BUY: If price holds above 4075 → target 4078, with further upside toward 4082, 4089, 4095
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Ombabibi
4
BTC/GOLD Macro Structure — The Most ImportantThis analysis focuses on one of the most important charts in the entire market — the BTC/GOLD (Bitcoin/Gold) ratio, a macro indicator that reveals long-term trend strength, capital rotation, and where global money is flowing. Why this chart matters for higher timeframes: 🔸 It shows when Bitcoin is outperforming Gold or when capital shifts back into hard-asset safety. 🔸 It provides macro trend confirmation far earlier than traditional BTC/USD or XAU/USD charts. 🔸 It helps identify long-term reversals, accumulation phases, and massive future moves. 🔸 Institutions watch this ratio to understand risk-on vs risk-off global sentiment. In this chart: ✔ Strong weekly support structure ✔ Clean higher-low formation signaling potential macro reversal ✔ Imbalance zone + Dissection zone marked ✔ Unfilled weekly FVG above ✔ White channel as the key trend-reversal confirmation area ✔ Break into the white channel = Massive Gold momentum ✔ Strong up-trend confirmation = Massive Bitcoin upside risk This chart is a roadmap for understanding the next major move in both Bitcoin and Gold. If you enjoy deep macro structure, multi-asset confluence, and clear breakdowns, make sure to follow for more weekly insights and advanced intermarket analysis. Big respect and inspiration to many great analysts & creators across TradingView and the crypto/forex community — their insights help shape better high-timeframe perspectives for charts like BTC/GOLD: @CryptoRand @MagicPoopCannon @TradingShot @OlegKhrystenko @WyckoffMode @Moon333 @DukeSamuel @CryptoTicker @TheDevMasters @TraderXO @filbfilb @CryptoKirbyTrading @rektproof @KoroushAK @MunehisaHonma @opticalartdotcom @SmartContracter @CryptoCaptain @madsinger @AlanSantana @JacobMorganFX @WaveWarrior @ICT_Concepts @ForexSignalsTV @VladimirRibakov @A1Trading @ForexAnalytix @Loomdart @Pentoshi @TradingRage @NebraskanGooner @CredibleCrypto @traderstalent @CoinKid @CryptoWendyO @CryptoCred @RaynerTeo @PriceActionPTD @JustinBennettFX @CryptoYoddha @CryptoCrewUniversity @Sangwen @SupplyDemandPro @TrendFollowingFX @PriceActionWizard @CryptoMetrics @FXEvolution @TheChartGuys @CryptoChase I learn from all these amazing creators and appreciate the value they bring to the TradingView community. If you follow macro structure, smart money concepts, long-term trend rotation and multi-asset confluence, this BTC/GOLD chart is essential for understanding where high-timeframe momentum is truly heading.
TVC:BTCXAULong
by TradeWithMky
Precision Trend Breakout Strategy — Channel Reversal & Fakeout D Precision Trend Breakout Strategy — Channel Reversal & Fakeout Detection (Gold XAUUSD Welcome to my official TradingView page! In this idea, I break down a precision trend-channel breakout setup using dynamic regression channels, fakeout identification, and EMA confirmation. This chart highlights: 🔹 Breakout vs Fakeout separation 🔹 Trend-line confirmation zone 🔹 Key channel liquidity areas 🔹 Momentum shift after retesting the upper structure 🔹 My personal confluence method for XAUUSD intraday setups I’m constantly learning and inspired by some of the best creators on TradingView — massive respect to: @CryptoRand, @MagicPoopCannon, @TradingShot, @WyckoffMode, @TheDevMasters, @OlegKhrystenko — your analysis and educational content continue to level up the community. 🙌 If you like clean charts, breakout strategies, and no-nonsense analysis… 👉 Follow me for daily setups, full backtest breakdowns, and high-probability strategy updates. 👉 Drop your opinion in the comments — let’s learn together. Stay disciplined. Stay consistent. Trade the trend, not the noise. 📈🔥
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TradeWithMky
1
ElDoradoFx – XAUUSD ANALYSIS (19/11/2025, ASIA SESSION)1. Market Overview Gold begins Asia around $4,070–$4,073 after a strong US-session recovery from $4,056–$4,060, creating a higher low on H1. Price is currently reacting at a major confluence zone: H1 supply + descending trendline + EMA200 resistance. Momentum remains bullish but overextended short-term, suggesting a likely Asia pullback into support before London continuation. ⸻ 2. Technical Breakdown 🔹 Daily (D1) • Gold maintains broader bullish structure above $4,030. • Price rejected strongly from the daily bullish demand $3,940–$4,000. • RSI is climbing toward 50+, signaling recovery. • A daily close above $4,082–$4,095 confirms a return to upside continuation. 🔹 H1 • Clear HL structure from $3,998, with BOS into $4,072. • Price is now inside H1 supply $4,072–$4,085, aligned with trendline + EMA200 resistance. • First rejection appeared, indicating sellers active at the zone. 🔹 15M–5M • Short-term bullish trend, but RSI divergence forming at $4,072–$4,075. • Asia likely to retrace to the HL zones $4,067 / $4,064 / $4,060 before deciding direction. ⸻ 3. Fibonacci Analysis Latest swing: $4,056 → $4,073 • 38.2% = $4,067 • 50% = $4,064 • 61.8% = $4,060 🎯 Golden Zone: $4,067 – $4,060 Ideal for re-entry on bullish continuation. ⸻ 4. High-Probability Trade Scenarios 📈 BUY Scenario (Primary Bias) Buy Zone: $4,067 – $4,060 (Golden Zone) Targets: • TP1: $4,073 • TP2: $4,082 • TP3: $4,095 Stop-Loss: below $4,056 Confirmation: 5M–15M CHoCH or bullish engulfing. ⸻ 📈 BUY Breakout Setup Trigger: Break & 5M/15M close above $4,085 Retest: $4,078–$4,082 Targets: • $4,095 • $4,108 • $4,122 Stop-Loss: below $4,075 ⸻ 📉 SELL Scenario (Countertrend) Sell Zone: $4,082 – $4,085 (confluence of supply + trendline + EMAs) Targets: • $4,072 • $4,064 • $4,060 Stop-Loss: above $4,092 Confirmation: bearish rejection + RSI divergence. ⸻ 📉 SELL Breakout Setup Trigger: Break below $4,060 Retest: $4,062–$4,064 Targets: • $4,056 • $4,048 • $4,032 Stop-Loss: above $4,067 ⸻ 5. Fundamental Watch • Asia low volatility expected ahead of FOMC Minutes. • US Dollar stabilizing; no directional force yet. • Higher volatility expected into London. • Gold remains driven by rate expectations; dips continue to be bought. ⸻ 6. Key Technical Levels Resistance Levels • 4,082 • 4,085 • 4,095 • 4,108 Support Levels • 4,067 • 4,064 • 4,060 • 4,056 Core Zones • Golden Zone (Buy): 4,067 – 4,060 • Supply Zone (Sell): 4,082 – 4,085 Breakout Triggers • Buy: > 4,085 • Sell: < 4,060 ⸻ 7. Analyst Summary Gold is in a mid-trend retracement phase after forming a new H1 higher low at $3,998. The current zone $4,072–$4,085 is heavy with confluence sellers, suggesting Asia may retrace first. Main bias stays bullish above $4,060, with the Golden Zone offering the cleanest continuation setup. A clean break above $4,085 opens the path toward $4,108–$4,122. A break below $4,060 flips momentum intraday to bearish. ⸻ 8. Final Bias Summary BULLISH above $4,060 BEARISH below $4,060 ⸻ 🥇 ElDoradoFx PREMIUM 3.0 – PERFORMANCE 18/11/2025 🥇 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📊 XAU/USD RESULTS 🔻 SELL +60 PIPS 🟢 BUY +820 PIPS (Swing) 🔻 SELL +60 PIPS 🔻 SELL +20 PIPS 🔻 SELL +110 PIPS 🔻 SELL +40 PIPS 🟢 BUY +30 PIPS ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ▶️ TRADING SESSION RESULTS 🟢 BUY +240 PIPS 🟢 BUY +270 PIPS 🟢 BUY +190 PIPS 🔻 SELL +50 PIPS ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 💰 TOTAL PIPS GAIN: +1,890 PIPS 🎯 11 Signals → 11 Wins ⚡ 100% Accuracy ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔥 Clean setups, powerful swings, and flawless live execution. If you caught these trades, congratulations — massive profit day! 🚀💰 — ElDoradoFx PREMIUM 3.0 Team 🚀
VANTAGE:XAUUSDLong
by ELDORADOFX
Multiple supports: policy divergence + safe-haven bottom line BackingHawk - Dove Split in Fed Buffers Gold PricesMary Daly of the San Francisco Fed noted "uncertainty over a December rate cut" without ruling out easing. In contrast, Kevin Hassett pushed for sharp rate cuts. With Raphael Bostic stepping down as Atlanta Fed president, a potential dovish successor has added to policy ambiguity. These splits prevent the market from uniting on short positions, acting as a buffer for gold. Economic & Policy Uncertainties Cement Safe - Haven DemandThe US government shutdown has caused a shortage of key economic data, leaving the market adrift. Together with worries over the Fed’s independence, this has spurred safe - haven buying that props up gold temporarily. Despite remaining resilient, the labor market has slowed notably. As Daly pointed out, "labor demand may keep weakening", and the risk of economic decline lingers. Gold trading strategy buy：4055-4065 tp:4075-4085-4130 sl:4040
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Thorne-
XAUUSD (Gold): Bearish Model #1 & Kiss of Death (KOD)Timeframe: 15M | Model: Bearish Model #1 / Kiss of Death (KOD) Setup We are tracking a high-conviction short scenario on Gold, perfectly aligning with the Manipulation (Candle 2) setup that precedes a strong downward move. The market has revealed its intentions by hunting stops above a key high. The setup shows a powerful confluence of bearish clues: Liquidity Grab (CRTH + TS): The price aggressively ran above the CRTH (Candle Range Theory High) at 4,081.92, trapping buyers who chased the breakout. This is the classic Turtle Soup (TS), where stops are cleared to fuel the move in the opposite direction. Bearish Model #1 Entry: Following the liquidity grab, price has quickly reversed and is now poised to enter the Distribution (Candle 3) phase. The trigger is the close of a candle that reverses below the manipulative high, confirming the Bearish Model #1. FVG + SMT: Price dropped from the high, creating a Fair Value Gap (FVG), and then offered a small retracement (the SMT entry point shown) back into the range, giving a perfect, low-risk entry opportunity to short. The Short Trade Thesis: Entry: The retracement back into the range provides a clean entry point (as shown by the dashed arrow). Target 1 (SSL): The first target is the SSL (Sell Side Liquidity) below 4,040.45. This is a high-probability target designed to clear the stops below the last swing low. Target 2 (CRTL): The ultimate objective is the CRTL (Candle Range Theory Low) at 4,029.33, where a larger reversal is expected to form or the trend will be confirmed to continue lower. Risk Management: Your stop loss should be placed safely above the CRTH/TS point at 4,081.92. This trade aligns with the Kiss of Death (KOD) pattern (CRT Secrets, Episode 2), where the market executes one final trap before a massive move! Trade the Trap, Not the Breakout. Greetings, MrYounity
VANTAGE:XAUUSDShort
by MrYounity
4112 or 3982 ??By examining the gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, you can see that the price broke the range of 4046 according to the previous analysis and fell to 3998. Gold then faced buying pressure and rose to 4,081. Gold is currently trading in the range of 4071. If gold consolidates above the 4046 range in the last working hours of the day, it is expected to rise to 4112 and even 4161. با بررسی چارت طلا در تایم فریم 4 ساعته مشاهده میکنید که قیمت طبق تحلیل قبلی محدوده 4046 را شکست وتا 3998 ریزش داشت. طلا بعد اون با فشار خرید مواجه شد و تا 4081 ام رشد کرد . درحال حاضر طلا در محدوده 4071 درحال معامله میباشد. در صورت تثبیت طلا در اخرین ساعات کاری روز بالای محدوده 4046 انتظار میرود تا 4112 و حتی 4161 رشد کند . The second scenario is that if the market can reach the support of 4002 in the early working hours, we can expect a fall to 3982. Consider this, guys, and don't forget about risk-free. 2=سناریو دوم بچه ها اگه در اوایل ساعات کاری مارکت زیر حمایت 4002 بتونه برسه خودشو میتونیم انتظار ریزش تا 3982 رو داشته باشیم. اینم در نظر بگیرید بچه ها و ریسک فری فراموش نشه
TVC:GOLD
by Ashkan-Shademani