THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
What a week! Our path worked well from Monday-Wednesday which is when we published the FOMC Report, which also worked extremely well on the red box indicator and hot spots. Yesterday we wanted that low for a push up and as you can see now, the move is in progress.
It's too late in the session now to attempt anything other than a scalp, but ideally the entries long are from the red box level which was given yesterday. We now have resistance at the 3695 region with support 3664 which needs to hold. The race for the close is on!
Wishing you all a great weekend ahead and we'll see you on Sunday for the KOG Report and our view for the week.
Please take some time to hit the boost button on our ideas and we appreciate the following.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Futures market
XAU/USD | GOLD ATH at $3,707, Then Heavy Dump – What Happend?By analyzing the gold chart on the 1-hour timeframe, we can see that after the Fed rate cut announcement, the price first dropped from $3,686 to $3,649, stopping out many buyers. Then, gold rallied sharply, gaining 570 pips up to $3,707 and printing a new ATH, which stopped out sellers. After that, the market turned again, with another heavy drop that stopped out fresh buyers too.
As I mentioned yesterday, this move was expected. Many asked why gold dropped despite the rate cut — the reason is that the news was already priced in last month. The market had anticipated the cut, which is why gold had already rallied earlier, and that’s why we saw this sharp drop after the announcement.
Currently, gold is trading around $3,637 after falling to $3,627. I expect this decline to continue toward the next target zone at $3,612–$3,622. Once price reaches that level, we’ll review the next scenario. The key supply zones to watch are $3,667, $3,677, $3,684, and $3,691.
I hope this analysis was helpful for you — stay tuned for more setups based on this outlook!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Bulls Defend 3630 zone – Is the Reversal Already Starting?In my yesterday’s analysis, I argued that Gold could extend its correction towards 3620 and even 3570 if the move deepened.
Indeed, during the day, price reached a new local low at 3628 before reversing sharply higher.
For several sessions now, I have been pointing out the risk of a correction. But the main message remained clear: this is only a correction within a much larger bullish trend.
So the key question today is: Is the correction over?
📊 Chart observations:
• The structure is corrective, with overlapping price action.
• After the Fed-triggered drop to 3635, price dipped again to 3628, and once more last night to 3632. Each of these dips has been quickly bought back, showing strong bull interest around the 3630 zone.
• Despite this, we are still under the falling trendline, which means caution is required.
⚖️ Trading stance:
This type of price action prompted me to close my short trades with around +550 pips profit. For now, I am adopting a wait-and-see approach but with a bullish bias in mind.
🟢 Two bullish scenarios I’m working with:
1. A fresh dip towards 3620 could provide a buying opportunity, as I would expect bulls to step in again.
2. If the price stabilizes above 3665–3670, I will consider the correction complete and start looking for long entries on strength.
At this stage, patience is key. Let the market show its hand, but the evidence suggests that the bullish trend is preparing for another leg higher. 🚀
SILVER Is Going Down! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for SILVER.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 4,309.9.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 4,247.3 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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GOLD (XAUUSD): Classic Pullback Trade
Gold may bounce from a key horizontal support.
As a confirmation, I spotted a breakout of a neckline of a double
bottom pattern after its test.
I expect a pullback to 3670.
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THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
Yesterday we posted the FOMC Report with the hot spots and boxes, which you can see has been added to the our usual chart. Although the move was very quick, you can see the boxes and hot spots worked like magic, especially the lower one which gave us the bounce we wanted for the long early session.
Now, we have resistance at the 3655 level and support below at the 3630 level. We would say late session trading is not worth it as there is hardly any volume in the markets, however, if we stay above the 3630 we should get an attempt higher
As always, trade safe.
KOG
OIL – Stuck in Range as Russian Supply Risks Counter OPEC+ PressOIL – OVERVIEW
Oil is on track for a modest weekly gain, but remains locked in a narrow range since early August. Bearish fundamentals—led by OPEC+’s accelerated output return—continue to cap upside potential.
However, lingering concerns over Russian supply risks following recent Ukrainian attacks on key infrastructure and Trump’s call for NATO allies to halt Russian oil purchases keep the market alert for potential spikes in volatility.
Technical Analysis
Crude maintains a bearish momentum while trading below 63.47 – 63.14, with downside targets at 61.83 and, if broken, 60.16.
A confirmed 4H close above 63.47 would shift momentum to bullish, opening a path toward 64.72 and 65.83.
Key Levels
Pivot: 63.14
Resistance: 63.47 – 64.72 – 65.83
Support: 61.83 – 60.16 – 58.70
Oil remains range-bound, with the 63.14–63.47 zone acting as a key decision area. A breakout will determine whether the next move favors a deeper pullback or a bullish reversal.
Profit taking to start Is gold to see profit taking into a clear supply area / technical resistance. To trigger short term shorts at the stops of the longs?
Chart Context: The daily close aligns with a prominent supply zone highlighted across multiple timeframes
USD index ticked up around the week’s close, which can cap gold’s upside if USD strength extends.
Bond yields still matter the 10 yr yield is 4.06% not sky high but high enough that any further rise would bolster the opportunity cost of holding non yielding gold and could pressure the metal.
Creating a short-term edge for sellers, who likely have the marginal edge while price sits at a major supply / resistance cluster. With gold closing at Daily supply zone.
Next week we can expect choppy and the potential for a retracement down into the 3668 to 3664 old resistance to turn support. Or first demand / support: 3655 to 3646 demand area and trend support. If this fails on clean close / follow through, sellers likely push price to demand band if buyers fail to defend 3668–3664. With deeper support if that fails.at 3620 to 3618 aoi previous structure / lower time frame demand.
Medium term edge weeks to months, Buyers keep the strategic advantage while Fed easing expectations, ETF flows and Chinese demand signals remain intact. Unless real yields spike or ETFs reverse heavily, the structural bias remains bullish.
Execution notes & structure checklist what to watch daily
1. FOMC follow through / Fed commentary, any hint that cuts will be delayed pushes real yields up and hurts gold. Watch Fed speakers.
2. US data flow, CPI/PPI, jobless claims, retail strong prints can tighten the short term squeeze on gold. Weak prints bolster the bull case.
3. DXY & 10 yr yields, watch DXY intraday moves and 10 yr clustering. A surge in yields or a sustained USD rally favors sellers.
4. ETF flows / physical flows, WGC weekly/monthly updates large net inflows can sustain upward pressure despite short term technicals.
5. China demand / policy headlines, any easing in import controls or strong retail/wholesale buying in China/India is bullish.
Key Price Zones to Monitor
3668 – 3664 First pullback support Old resistance turned support. Initial retracement target.
3655 – 3646 Demand / trend support Strong demand cluster and trendline confluence.
3620 – 3618 Deeper structural support Lower timeframe demand, failure here signals broader correction.
Note: A clean daily close below 3668–3664 with follow-through would hand sellers near-term control and open a path to deeper supports.
Gold has returned to its upward trendCurrently, the bulls in the gold market have the upper hand. The recent short - term pullback in gold prices is merely an adjustment and does not signal a real trend reversal. After gold broke through the short - term downward trend line on the chart, it rebounded upwards again. As a result, the 3660 level has now transformed into a support level. Any retracement of gold to above 3660 presents an opportunity to go long on dips.
Given that the gold bulls have managed to reverse the situation after multiple downward probes and the price has ultimately continued to rise, it indicates that the strength of the gold bulls is more dominant. Gold has returned to its upward trend, and the short - term adjustment may have ended. Therefore, on any retracement, it is still an opportunity to go long along the trend.
Gold Faces Major Resistance: Is a Sharp Decline Imminent?Hey everyone, looking at XAUUSD today, I noticed something quite interesting. Gold has reached an important resistance level, one that in the past has acted as a strong barrier, pushing the price down. This area has also been a strong supply zone, where sellers have previously taken control of the market. Therefore, it becomes a "hot" spot for those looking for shorting opportunities.
If the price starts showing bearish signals, such as rejection wicks, bearish candlestick patterns, or signs of weakening buying pressure, I think there's a good chance we could see a drop towards 3,604, and possibly even lower to 3,5XX if the selling pressure remains strong. However, if the price breaks this resistance clearly, the bearish outlook might be invalidated, and we could see a further rally.
This is just my personal view on the support and resistance levels, not financial advice. Always double-check your signals and ensure proper risk management.
Good luck with your trades!
GOLD WEEKLY SUMMERY.GOLD ,THE daily structure is strongly protected by a demand floor,the daily line chart close at the demand floor level, is 3640,3634,3626 ,the dollar index daily rejection during newyork time at 97.803 was enforced BY 12;00 AND 13;00 that made GOLD to skyrocket from the neckline of the double bottom at 3644 to close 3685 breaking every strategy for sell. The strong double bottom structure from the 4HR line chart ,the neckline was retested at 4HR close in the zone 3644-3647, and GOLD BUYING closed the week 3685 AGAINST ALL ODDS AND STILL looking to reclaim 3700 next week with a possibility of a new all time high at 3723-3725-3730 zone based on the rule of selling from the ascending trendline supply roof on 4HR .THE next touch could be 3730-3725 bound.
But at the moment, we have a supply roof from a lower 4-hour cross as a potential rejection zone 3697-3700. If this zone is respected, we could get a correction to keep buying GOLD .
I WILL NOT ADVISE ANYONE TO TRY TO SELL GOLD UNTIL THE DAILY BREAK OF DEMAND FLOOR.
WE KEEP BUYING AND ALLOW OTHERS TO SELL ,THEN WE LOOK FOR A BUY OPPORTUNITY.
GOLD BUY/SELL IS RELATED TO REAL LIFE PHYSICAL GOLD PRICE IN THE MARKET ,SO TAKE IT SERIOUSLY.
GOODLUCK
#XAUUSD #GOLD #SILVER #COPPER #US10Y #DOLLAR #DXY
XAUUSD CAN FLY HIGHAccording to H1 analysis gold market continuously in fly pressure market break the RESISTANCE LEVEL and create the RBS (RESISTANCE BECAME SUPPORT) now market will be touch the support level if you are interested then go long from here
dont be greedy use money management
TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK
REGARD ALBERT
Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Outlook – Two Possible Scenarios AheadGold is trading inside a rising channel on the 4H timeframe, approaching a key resistance zone (3,685–3,700). From here, I see two potential scenarios:
🟢 Bullish Scenario
A breakout and 4H close above 3,700 could signal continuation higher.
Retest of the 3,690–3,700 zone as support would strengthen the case for upside.
Next target sits around 3,750–3,770 (upper channel boundary).
🔴 Bearish Scenario
Failure to break above 3,700 and rejection from resistance may trigger a pullback.
A break below the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone (3,643–3,626) would add bearish momentum.
Downside target extends toward 3,580 (major demand zone).
Both paths are possible – price action confirmation around the 3,690–3,700 zone will be key to determine direction.
GOLD WEEKPLAN: UP FIRST DOWN AFTEROANDA:XAUUSD Footprint Analysis
The Footprint chart provides a more detailed view of the order flow. Here are some key points:
Price Pullback: The recent candles show a decrease in buying pressure (green) and an increase in selling pressure (red).
Volume Footprint: The trading volume (Total) and Delta (the difference between buying and selling pressure) on each candle show the order distribution.
The candle on the 19th has a negative Delta (~ -5.96 K), indicating that selling pressure is dominant, which aligns with the corrective pullback.
However, there's no major volume divergence, suggesting that this may only be a typical correction.
Detailed Footprint Analysis: The numbers within each candle show the number of buy orders (on the left) and sell orders (on the right) at each price level. When the price pulls back to the Imbalance or Strong OB zone, it's crucial to monitor the Footprint for signs of buying pressure returning (Delta turning positive or significant buying volume at key price levels), which would serve as a confirmation signal for a long entry.
OANDA:XAUUSD General Analysis
The XAUUSD market is in a strong uptrend, confirmed by the market structure:
Higher Highs (HH): Each new peak is higher than the previous one.
Higher Lows (HL): Each new trough is higher than the previous one.
Recently, the price created a Break of Structure (BOS), breaking the previous high, which indicates a continuation of the uptrend. After the BOS, the price established a new high (HH) and is now making a corrective pullback to find a strong support zone before continuing its upward momentum.
Imbalance (Fair Value Gap - FVG): This is a liquidity void created when the price moves too quickly. According to SMC theory, the market tends to return to fill this gap.
Location: The price range is from ~$3660 to ~$3670 USD.
Significance: This zone could act as a temporary support level. If the price returns to this area, it might fill the Imbalance and then continue to rise.
Strong OB (Order Block): This is a large block of orders left behind by "Smart Money" and often serves as a strong support or resistance zone.
Location: The price range is from ~$3645 to ~$3655 USD.
Significance: This is the strongest support zone to consider for a long entry. The price is likely to pull back to this area, tap into the order block, and then bounce back up to continue the trend.
Additionally, there are two important liquidity zones to note:
Buy Side Liquidity ($$$): Located above the most recent high (~$3700 USD). The price has the potential to move up to sweep this liquidity.
Sell Side Liquidity ($$$): Located below the most recent low (~$3620 USD). This zone could be swept if there is a sharp market drop, but it's highly likely that the price will respect the bullish structure and not break this low.
Gold (XAUUSD) – Breakout Retest at Resistance, Next Move?Gold on the 2H timeframe is testing a critical resistance area after multiple BOS (Break of Structure) and ChoCH movements. Price recently broke down from resistance and is now retesting this zone.
📊 Key Levels:
Resistance Zone: 3,675 – 3,700
Support Level: 3,585 – 3,600
EMA 200: Acting as dynamic support
🔎 Outlook:
If the retest holds below resistance, a bearish continuation towards the 3,600 support level is possible.
A strong bullish breakout above 3,700 could open the door for further upside.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always manage risk properly and trade according to your own plan.
Correction for gold is almost finishedHi traders,
Last week gold went a little more up. Then it started the bigger correction down (orange wave 4). I don't think the correction has finished.
So next week we could see some more downside to finish the correction, but after that this pair could go up again.
Let's see what price does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for the correction down to finish and the next impulsive wave up. After a small correction down on a lower timeframe and a change in orderflow to bullish you could trade longs again.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with wave analysis, please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
XAG/USD | Bull or Bear ? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the Silver chart on the 2-hour timeframe, we can see that the price is currently trading around $42. The resistance at $42.4 is just ahead, and I expect it to be broken soon, which could push silver to higher levels.
The next target and supply zone is between $42.5–$42.65. All supply and demand zones are marked on the chart — make sure to watch them closely and follow the price reaction. This analysis will be updated again!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban