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Gold 4H – Liquidity Plays Ahead of Fed Minutes & PMI Data🥇 XAUUSD – Weekly Smart Money Outlook | by Ryan_TitanTrader 📈 Market Context Gold continues to trade inside a controlled 4H consolidation as markets brace for a highly event-driven week: U.S. PMI releases, updated Fed guidance, and renewed debates over the timing of future rate cuts. Recent data has shown mixed momentum — softer employment trends but steady business activity — keeping the dollar volatile and gold reactive near mid-range liquidity. Institutional flows remain cautious, reducing aggressive positioning ahead of major macro catalysts. This environment typically leads to engineered sweeps on both sides of the range as Smart Money hunts liquidity before revealing direction. Expect short-term volatility spikes, especially around U.S. session opens and PMI releases. 🔎 Technical Analysis (4H / SMC View) • Price is navigating a minor bearish structure, forming lower highs while protecting deeper liquidity beneath 4020. • The recent 4H BOS + corrective pullback suggests the market may generate a liquidity grab toward the discount zone before any strong bullish leg develops. • A Premium Sell Zone at 4225–4227 sits above resting liquidity, making it an ideal region for stop hunts and short-term distribution. • The Discount Buy Zone at 4010–4008 aligns with structural reaction points, unmitigated demand, and a liquidity shelf — ideal for accumulation. • Mid-range liquidity around 4060–4080 may be swept before the market chooses a larger weekly direction. 🟢 Buy Zone: 4010–4008 SL: 4000 TP targets: 4085 → 4120 → 4175 → 4220 Rationale: • Deep discount zone beneath 4H liquidity • Confluence of demand + structural mitigation • High probability of engineered sweep before bullish expansion 🔴 Sell Zone: 4225–4227 SL: 4235 TP targets: 4175 → 4120 → 4060 → 4015 Rationale: • Premium supply above equal-high liquidity • Favors stop hunt + distribution before correction • Aligns with previous 4H rejection and imbalance fill ⚠️ Risk Management Notes • Wait for M15 ChoCH / BOS inside each zone before entering — avoid blind entries. • Expect spreads and liquidity manipulation around news: US PMI, Fed speeches, and data surprises. • Avoid trading 10–20 minutes before high-impact events. • Scale partial profits at each structural target to secure gains and let runners develop. ✅ Summary Gold remains trapped in a structured 4H range where Smart Money is likely to sweep one side before delivering a decisive expansion. Discounted buys at 4010–4008 and premium sells at 4225–4227 remain the highest-probability weekly setups. Stay patient, respect liquidity, and follow confirmation. 🔔 FOLLOW @Ryan_TitanTrader for more weekly SMC setups 🚀
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_TitanTrader
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF GOLD FOR SHORT OPPORTUNITY ​📈 Gold Technical Analysis (1h Chart) ​The chart shows a distinct price pattern and a potential trading setup following a significant rally. ​Key Observations ​Prior Movement: The price made a sharp upward move, peaking around $4,200 (on November 13th), followed by a clear downtrend. ​Correction/Pattern: Since the peak, the price action has formed a Descending Channel (or potential Bear Flag) indicated by the two parallel white trendlines. This suggests a corrective phase after the initial rally. ​Support Zone: There is a significant Horizontal Support Zone highlighted by the shaded brown rectangle, roughly between $3,950 and $4,000, which corresponds to a previous area of consolidation/resistance (around November 7th-9th) that was broken to the upside. The price has recently tested the upper boundary of this zone. ​Recent Action: The price is currently near the lower boundary of the descending channel and appears to be testing both the channel support and the upper boundary of the horizontal support zone. ​Trading Setup ​The chart features an active Short (Sell) setup, indicating a bearish bias: ​Entry Price: $4,060.701 (The price is currently $4,035.592, suggesting the entry was taken earlier or the current price is the market price). ​Stop Loss (Red Area): Set at $4,093.987. This is placed just above the recent swing high within the descending channel, protecting against a bullish breakout. ​Take Profit (Green/Teal Area): Set at $3,930.553. This target aims for a move that breaks below the horizontal support zone and potentially reaches the prior consolidation lows. ​Risk/Reward Ratio: The size of the red box (risk) versus the size of the teal box (reward) suggests a favorable risk/reward ratio for this trade. ​Conclusion ​The overall pattern suggests that Gold is undergoing a healthy correction within a descending channel. The active trade is betting on a breakout below the channel and the key horizontal support zone ($3,950 - $4,000) to confirm a deeper correction. If the price fails to break lower and instead breaks above the descending channel, the short position would be stopped out, potentially signaling a continuation of the prior uptrend. ​Would you like a summary of the next most likely price movements based on this pattern?
TVC:GOLDShort
by Expert_Travis
Emerging Market Impact in the Global Trade Market1. Transformation of Global Demand and Consumption One of the most significant impacts of emerging markets on global trade comes from their expanding consumer bases. Rising incomes, rapid urbanization, and demographic advantages—particularly in economies like India, Indonesia, and Nigeria—have created massive new markets for global goods and services. Growing Middle Class The global middle class has more than doubled since 2000, primarily driven by Asia. Emerging economies now account for over two-thirds of global consumption growth. This increasing consumption translates into greater demand for automobiles, electronics, pharmaceuticals, luxury goods, food products, and technology services. For multinational corporations, emerging markets are no longer optional but essential destinations for expansion and long-term growth. 2. Shift in Global Production Centers The global manufacturing landscape has undergone dramatic shifts, with emerging markets becoming the backbone of global production networks. China led the manufacturing revolution, but other economies—including Vietnam, Bangladesh, India, and Mexico—have followed suit. Low-Cost Labor Advantage Emerging markets often provide affordable labor and supportive tax policies, attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) from international firms seeking cost-efficient production hubs. Rise of New Manufacturing Titans Vietnam has become a global hub for electronics and textiles. India is emerging strongly in electronics, pharmaceuticals, and automotive parts. Mexico benefits significantly from nearshoring trends driven by U.S.-based companies. This shift has diversified the global supply chain, reducing dependency on single sources and making international trade more resilient and adaptive. 3. Backbone of Global Commodity Trade Emerging markets play a vital role in both the supply and demand sides of global commodities. Demand-Side Influence As developing economies industrialize, their need for: crude oil natural gas steel copper agricultural commodities increases dramatically. China alone has been a major driver of global commodity demand for the last two decades. Supply-Side Contribution Many emerging countries are rich in natural resources. Examples include: Brazil and Argentina in agriculture South Africa and Chile in metals and minerals Indonesia and Malaysia in palm oil Gulf and African countries in energy resources The pricing of many global commodities is now significantly influenced by the economic growth patterns of emerging markets. 4. Increasing Role in Global Trade Policies Emerging markets are becoming more influential in international economic institutions such as the World Trade Organization (WTO), IMF, G20, and regional trade blocs. Strategic Alliances and Trade Blocs BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) MERCOSUR in South America These groups advocate for more balanced trade policies and improved access to developed markets. Their collective bargaining power is reshaping global tariffs, trade agreements, and development frameworks. 5. Digital Transformation and Technology Services Emerging markets are not just manufacturing hubs; many have become leaders in digital trade and technology services. India’s IT Dominance India has become the world’s IT outsourcing leader, supplying software services, cloud solutions, and consulting to major global corporations. China’s Tech Ecosystem China’s evolution into a global powerhouse in: smartphones e-commerce artificial intelligence robotics has changed the competitive landscape. Start-Up Ecosystems Rising Several emerging economies now boast robust start-up ecosystems, including: Indonesia Brazil Nigeria Vietnam Their growing digital markets contribute significantly to global e-commerce and fintech trade. 6. Changing Global Supply Chain Dynamics The pandemic accelerated a realignment of supply chain strategies. Companies began diversifying production away from single-country dependence—a phenomenon known as China+1 strategy. Winners of Supply Chain Diversification Vietnam India Mexico Thailand Malaysia As multinational firms diversify, emerging markets gain new investments, technology transfers, and increased participation in global trade networks. This shift enhances their economic resilience and strengthens their influence in global trade decisions. 7. Growing Investment Destinations Emerging markets attract significant foreign direct investment (FDI) due to: large workforces improving ease of doing business competitive production costs rapid digitalization Investments in sectors like manufacturing, infrastructure, renewable energy, and technology have fueled growth. In return, these economies are increasingly investing abroad, particularly through: sovereign wealth funds multinational corporations development banks (e.g., China’s Belt & Road Initiative) This two-way investment flow deepens global trade linkages and accelerates economic integration. 8. Challenges and Vulnerabilities Despite their growth and influence, emerging markets face structural challenges that affect global trade. Economic Volatility These economies are more vulnerable to: currency fluctuations inflation cycles commodity price swings debt stress Global economic slowdowns disproportionately impact emerging markets. Infrastructure Gaps Inadequate infrastructure in ports, logistics, power supply, and digital connectivity can limit trade efficiency. Political and Policy Risks Trade policies, regulatory changes, and geopolitical tensions can create uncertainty for investors and trading partners. Yet despite these challenges, their overall trajectory continues upward. 9. Geopolitical Influence and Realignment Emerging markets now play major roles in global geopolitics, influencing trade corridors, energy routes, and investment flows. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), India’s Act East Policy, and regional trade blocs show a growing desire for strategic autonomy. These geopolitical realignments have reshaped: maritime trade routes infrastructure development cross-border connectivity As emerging markets grow stronger, their geopolitical strategies directly impact global trade patterns. 10. Future Outlook: The Next Phase of Global Trade In the coming decade, emerging markets are expected to contribute nearly 60–65% of global GDP growth. Their rise will further influence: Key Trends Expansion of digital trade and fintech Green energy transitions leading new commodity markets Growing influence in global governance institutions Greater regional trade integration Increased innovation and technological adoption Emerging markets are not just participants—they are becoming architects of the future global trade system. Conclusion Emerging markets have fundamentally reshaped the global trade landscape. From driving consumption growth and diversifying production hubs to influencing commodity markets and trade policies, these economies are now critical pillars of global economic architecture. While challenges remain, their increasing economic integration, expanding middle class, rapid digitalization, and strategic geopolitical influence position them as the key engines of global trade in the decades ahead.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
Understanding Forex Money Flow: Risk-on & Risk-offWhen it comes to Forex, most traders focus on technicals, chart patterns, or indicators. But “money flow” — the force that truly moves price — is often overlooked. If you want to read the market like a pro, you must understand Risk-on and Risk-off: the two sentiment states that drive global capital. Today, let’s break them down clearly, practically, and in a way you can apply immediately. 🔥 What Is Risk-on? “Risk-on” appears when the market is optimistic, investors seek risk, and money flows strongly into high-return assets. Signals of a Risk-on Environment: Strong stock market rallies Capital shifts into riskier assets Bond yields rise Positive economic news or geopolitical easing Assets That Benefit in Forex: AUD, NZD, CAD (commodity currencies) GBP, EUR (when the economy is stable) Bitcoin, oil, and equities also tend to rise Risk-on = “The market is excited → money flows into high-yield assets”. 💥 What Is Risk-off? “Risk-off” occurs when the market fears uncertainty, causing money to move toward safe-haven assets. Signals of a Risk-off Environment: Stock markets fall sharply Money exits risky assets Gold spikes USD and JPY strengthen Negative economic news, war, inflation, or political instability Assets That Benefit in Forex: USD, JPY, CHF Gold (XAUUSD) U.S. government bonds Risk-off = “The market is scared → money runs to safety”. ❓ Why Forex Traders MUST Understand Risk-on / Risk-off No matter what indicator you use, the market ultimately reacts to major capital flow. Understanding these two states helps you: Trade with market sentiment → dramatically increases win rate Avoid entering trades against the money flow → fewer “pointless stop-loss hits” Identify strong/weak currencies → choose high-probability setups Many perfect technical setups fail simply because they go against global money flow. 📌 How to Apply This Immediately in Your Forex Trading 1. Check the News → Identify Sentiment Good news? Strong GDP? Stable markets? → Risk-on Bad news? War? Inflation? Hawkish Fed? → Risk-off 2. Compare Currency Strength Simple formula: Risk-on → prioritize BUY AUD, NZD, CAD Risk-off → prioritize BUY USD, JPY, CHF 3. Follow the Trend — Avoid Fighting Money Flow The strongest trends often come from shifts between Risk-on and Risk-off. Examples: Bad news → JPY strengthens → XXXJPY pairs fall hard Risk-on returns → USD weakens → gold rises quickly Follow the money flow, and you’re already ahead of 80% of traders. 🧠 Conclusion – If You Want to Trade Smart, Trade With the Money Flow Risk-on and Risk-off aren’t just theory — they’re the compass that reveals market psychology, which is the foundation of every trend. Want to trade like Smart Money? → Watch where the money is moving, not just where the candles are going.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Paradise_Noir
12
Technical Analysis & Trading Plan for $GOLDThe technical chart for TVC:GOLD is currently exhibiting a compelling and potentially powerful pattern configuration. The primary structure is an ascending channel, characterized by a consistent series of higher lows and higher highs. Contained within this broader channel, the price action has also begun to consolidate into a symmetrical triangle. This triangle is identified by converging trendlines, where the resistance is sloping downward and the support is sloping upward, creating a coil-like formation. This pattern confluence is significant. The ascending channel provides the underlying bullish bias, while the symmetrical triangle represents a period of consolidation and equilibrium between buyers and sellers. A decisive breakout from this triangle, especially on high volume, typically signals the resumption of the prior trend and can lead to a powerful, directional move. 2. Key Technical Levels and Trade Execution Strategy Our trading plan is built around the anticipated resolution of this symmetrical triangle. Stop Loss (Risk Management): A stop loss is placed at 4,200. This level should be positioned logically below a key support structure, such as the lower boundary of the ascending channel or a recent significant swing low. Its purpose is to automatically exit the trade if the price action invalidates the bullish pattern, thus defining and limiting our maximum risk. Profit-Taking Strategy (Tiered Exit): Take Profit 1 (TP1): 3,637.763 (0.382 Fibonacci Retracement) - This is our primary profit-taking target. The 0.382 Fibonacci level is a common and respected retracement zone where one can expect some resistance during a pullback. Securing profits here locks in gains and reduces risk for the remainder of the position. 3. The Critical Trigger: Managing a Bearish Move The analysis includes a specific contingency plan for a bearish outcome. The 0.236 Fibonacci level at 3,946.106 is not a take-profit level but a critical trigger level for action. If the price declines and closes below 3,946.106, it serves as an early warning signal. This breach suggests that selling pressure is overcoming buying pressure and increases the probability that the price will continue to fall toward our TP1 level at 3,637.76. Therefore, a break below 3,946.106 is the trigger that validates the sell signal and activates our profit-taking strategy at TP1. In Summary: The current setup for TVC:GOLD shows a bullish structure (Ascending Channel) undergoing consolidation (Symmetrical Triangle). Our base case is to wait for a bullish breakout. However, this plan specifically outlines the strategy for a bearish move: Monitor the 0.236 Fibonacci level at 3,946.106. If this level is broken, it triggers a sell signal. Execute the trade with a profit target at the 0.382 Fibonacci level (3,637.76) and a stop loss at 4,200 to manage risk. This creates a defined, rules-based approach to capitalize on a potential downward move within the broader pattern.
TVC:GOLDLong
by KalaGhazi
From Shutdown Relief to AI Anxiety — Two Narratives Driving ESMarket Theme The week began on a strong footing, driven by a bullish Sunday reopen in ES after news broke that the 43-day government shutdown was set to end, following the Senate’s late-night support for a potential agreement on November 9th. This relief catalyst created early upside momentum, pushing the index toward all-time highs (ATHs). However, the tone shifted mid-week. The rally lost steam as markets refocused on a growing concern: the sustainability of current Tech and AI valuations. Investors are becoming more sensitive to the possibility of overstretched AI-related capital expenditure and an emerging bubble narrative, especially with heavyweight earnings and forward-guidance looming. This led to a rotation out of high-beta tech and into safer or less-extended sectors. On the macro front, Fed speakers adopted a more cautious—if not outright hawkish—tone, emphasizing that a December rate cut is far from assured. The recent government shutdown created a backlog in key economic data releases, leaving policymakers and traders alike without clear visibility into the true state of the economy. The lack of data has amplified uncertainty and reduced the market’s conviction around the timing of any potential policy easing. In short: The market is caught between two opposing forces: The optimistic narrative (shutdown resolved, path to ATHs, resilience in U.S. growth), and The risk narrative (valuation excess, policy uncertainty, narrowing breadth). This push-pull dynamic has resulted in compression rather than continuation, with a heavy focus on clarity from upcoming data and major earnings. What is the Market Doing? Last week formed an inside week, with the entire range trading within the prior week’s range and settling close to the previous week’s close. This signals indecision and balance, as neither buyers nor sellers had the conviction to push the market into expansion. Current price action shows the market compressing between: 6875 — previous week’s VPOC / 27 Oct weekly VAL 6740— 13 Oct weekly VAH / 10 Nov weekly volume ledge These levels are well-defined and respected. The upward trendline continues to hold, with multiple strong rejections signaling responsive buyers stepping in to bid prices back up. The battle is now between buyers attempting to defend 6740 area which is also confluent with the daily trendline support, and sellers leaning on the overhead resistance close to 6875. What to Expect in the Coming Week The key line in the sand (LIS) this week: → 6755.25 — Previous week's settlement Bullish Scenario If 6755 holds as support, expect buyers to attempt a push toward: 6874.50 — previous week's VPOC 6905.5— weekly 1-SD volatility high Anticipate responsive sellers in this area. However, if price breaks above 6874.50 with pace and volume and accepts above it, the path opens for a retest of the ATHs as momentum players and trapped shorts fuel continuation. Bearish Scenario If the market accepts below 6755 and fails to reclaim it on any pullback: First downside target: 6660 — 13 Oct weekly VAL If buyers fail to respond there, expect an acceleration lower from long liquidation toward: 6605— weekly 1-SD volatility low 6504 — previous month's low (deeper target) This scenario strengthens if the trendline breaks and sellers begin stepping down aggressively. Neutral / Compression Scenario If the market remains trapped between 6875 and 6740 with no breakout supported by pace and volume: Expect two-way rotational trade Continued compression and balance within the well-defined range A buildup of energy that may resolve later in the week with data, earnings or fundamental catalysts Conclusion As we start the new week, ES remains tightly coiled between well-defined levels, with the market waiting for clarity from data, earnings, and policy signals. Whether we break from compression or continue to balance, the key will be how buyers and sellers respond around 6755 and whether there are new fundamental catalysts. As always, I’d love to hear your view on the markets and ES this week? — Drop it below — and give it a boost so more of the community can join the conversation. Glossary Index for all technical terms used: VAH (Value Area High) VAL (Value Area Low) VPOC (Volume Point of Control) SD (Standard Deviation)
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
11
Gold Weakens as Sellers Regain ControlHello everyone, gold is starting to lose its upward momentum when looking at the 4H chart: the price is hovering around 4,065 USD, right after a firm rejection from the 4,090–4,100 USD region. A series of small-bodied candles with long upper wicks suggests that buyers are slowing down, while sellers are stepping back in and taking control each time price approaches the supply zone above. Technically, the Ichimoku cloud has flattened and begun tilting downward—a familiar sign of a weak, slightly bearish sideways market. Just overhead, the 4,090–4,100 USD zone aligns with an unfilled red FVG, forming a strong resistance layer that makes it difficult for gold to break higher. On the downside, the nearest support sits at 4,040–4,030 USD, where a green FVG and an old liquidity cluster previously triggered strong reactions. The external backdrop doesn’t support gold either: the USD is recovering well following stronger-than-expected US economic data, the 10-year Treasury yield is holding around 4.1%, and US–EU equities continue rising thanks to Big Tech. Capital is moving away from safe-haven assets, leaving gold without much momentum to rebound in the short term. Given all these signals, I lean toward one primary scenario: gold may pull back to retest the 4,040–4,030 USD zone in the coming sessions. If that area breaks cleanly, the next target would be 4,000 USD—a high-liquidity region that has produced strong bounces in the past. On the other hand, as long as 4,090 continues to reject price, gold is likely to remain in a tight 4,050–4,090 range rather than resume an immediate uptrend. What do you think—will 4,040 hold this time, or will gold need to revisit 4,000 before finding new buying pressure?
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Momonoo
9
Approaching Major Support (56.5–57.0) | Potential Double Bottom WTI Crude Oil – Multi-Timeframe Analysis Monthly (1M) WTI is approaching a major long-term support zone at 56.5–57.0. There is a potential monthly double bottom forming, but it’s still unconfirmed. Trend remains bearish as price stays below EMA20/EMA50. Weekly (1W) Momentum remains weak – RSI < 50 and MACD pointing down. However, the 56.7 level has been tested three times, forming a strong structural support. No strong bullish signals yet, but buyers are defending the area. Daily (1D) Price keeps rejecting EMA50, confirming the broader downtrend, but Stoch RSI is entering oversold territory. A clean retest of 56.5 would form a daily double bottom. MACD is flattening near zero, showing early signs of exhaustion. 4-Hour (4H) This is where the strongest bullish signals appear: MACD deeply oversold RSI showing bullish divergence Stoch RSI turning up from zero Clear reaction from 57.18 support This timeframe suggests a potential short-term bounce.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDELong
by BAraBA_1989
Gold Preparing for 3920–3950 Retest Before Bullish ContinuationMonthly timeframe (1M) Gold historically spends 3–4 months in a consolidation or bounce range before continuing the macro trend. After a parabolic move up, the current monthly candle shows a large top wick, signaling temporary buyer exhaustion – but the long-term trend remains firmly bullish. Weekly timeframe (1W) Price made a clean retest of the 20EMA, which is a textbook “healthy pullback” in strong uptrends. RSI coming off the overbought zone with a mild bearish crossover. CCI clearly trending down. MACD showing the first signs of a potential rollover, but no confirmed bearish cross yet. Overall: the weekly chart is in a bullish correction, not a reversal. Daily timeframe (1D) MACD is approaching the zero line, which rarely breaks below on gold during bullish cycles. RSI near 50 – the typical lower boundary for bullish pullbacks. CCI touched oversold once and looks ready for another retest. Gold typically touches the 50EMA during corrections – which hasn’t happened yet. Last daily candle closed above EMA20, but momentum is still weakening. This strongly suggests a retest of the 3920–3950 zone (1D EMA50 area) before continuation. 4H timeframe Price is currently fighting with the 20EMA and 50EMA. The 200EMA was tested twice and held perfectly, supported by oversold conditions across: RSI, CCI, MACD curl, and Stoch. This signals quiet institutional buying on dips. Final outlook Most probable scenario: Retest of 3920–3950 (1D EMA50 zone) Trend remains strong on higher timeframes; lower timeframes are completing a healthy correction.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by BAraBA_1989
1
NQ Weekly Recap | November 17-21, 2025Weekly Recap – NQ (Nov 17–21, 2025) Monday (Nov 17) Price spent the entire NY session under all EMAs. Clean downside. Tuesday (Nov 18) Same thing — stayed under every EMA and continued lower. No strength. Wednesday (Nov 19) Choppy during NY. No clean direction or follow-through. Thursday (Nov 20) Looked bullish before NY, but as soon as the session opened it failed and dumped under the EMAs hard. Cleanest downside day of the week. Friday (Nov 21) Weak push down during NY, then the bigger move up happened after the session ended. Bias: Overall bearish week. Price stayed under the EMAs for most of the NY sessions except for Friday’s late push up.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by icixbt
Gold Returns to a Sensitive Zone – Is the Downtrend Already DoneHello everyone, gold is undergoing a rather deliberate correction after dropping from 4,110. Price is now moving around 4,078–4,066 — low enough to make buyers cautious, yet not deep enough to trigger panic. I want to share my personal view on the most likely bearish scenario at the moment. 1. What is the market showing us? On the H2 chart, price is sitting right at the edge of the Ichimoku cloud, supported by a green FVG and a thin buffer zone at 4,045–4,035. The sequence of small red candles last night resembles profit-taking rather than a trend reversal. It feels like the market is “offloading for comfort”, not capitulating. The most notable area is the 4,045–4,035 support cluster: this zone overlaps the nearest FVG and also marks the accumulation base from 19–20 November. It behaves like a natural stopping point — where price tends to return to gather liquidity before choosing its next direction. 2. The news factors pressuring gold September’s NFP came in at 119k (vs 50k forecast), pushing rate-cut expectations lower. The USD strengthened, and the Fed gained more reasons to stay cautious as October’s report was combined into November. At the same time, US and EU equities strengthened thanks to Big Tech leaders, with Nvidia’s strong earnings pulling capital out of safe-havens. The 10Y yield hovering around 4.1% and oil dropping to 59.5 USD further reduced gold’s appeal. Overall, this is a news-driven pullback — a familiar “sentiment reset” after a heated rally. 3. The highest-probability bearish scenario (in my view) I lean toward the scenario where price continues drifting toward 4,045–4,035 to gather liquidity and tap the FVG, then forms a rejection wick and rebounds toward the resistance zone at 4,095–4,115. This is a technical rebalance after news, not a signal of a long-term trend reversal. As long as 4,000 holds, the market still has enough momentum for the next bullish leg.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Momonoo
2
Gold at a Turning Point: Will It Rise or Fall?As we zoom in and take a closer look at how GOLD is moving, one thing becomes immediately clear: The market has just shown a powerful upward surge, but now something intriguing is happening. The price is compressing, forming a tight, small triangle, a sign that the market is building up energy. In moments like this, there are usually two potential paths, but given the bullish context, I can almost feel that a breakout to the upside is the more likely scenario. What do you think? Do you agree with me? Let me know your thoughts in the comments! And trust me, joining the TradingView community is one of the best ways to improve your skills as a trader every single day. Just a reminder: this isn't financial advice, but rather my personal take on the chart.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by LauraCharts
2
Natural Gas (NG) – Multi-Timeframe Technical AnalysisNatural Gas (NG) – Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis Monthly (1M) Price has pushed into the 4.80 zone, which corresponds to the previous major monthly high. The last three monthly candles are bullish, showing strong upward momentum, but NG is now entering a significant historical resistance area. Weekly (1W) Volume is rising, indicating strong participation. Price bounced cleanly from the retest zone, and the current candle remains green, but buyers are now encountering notable resistance at the top of the range. Daily (1D) Clear wick rejection around 4.85, showing that sellers are defending this level. MACD is showing mild crossovers and losing momentum. RSI is overbought and making a bearish crossover — often a sign of short-term exhaustion. 4-Hour (4H) A potential double-top pattern is forming at the 4.85 resistance, which supports the idea of weakening bullish momentum on the lower timeframes. Natural Gas remains bullish on higher timeframes, but the 4.80–4.88 zone is acting as a strong resistance cluster. Lower timeframes are already showing signs of momentum fading. If bulls fail to break above 4.88, a short-term correction is likely. A clean breakout above this area would invalidate bearish signals and could open the next leg toward higher Fibonacci levels.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASShort
by BAraBA_1989
2
Gold H4 Time Frame Chart Analysis Why a Drop Makes Sense (Bearish Bias) ✔ Repeated rejections from the upper supply zone The large purple zone around 4120–4130 has already rejected price multiple times → showing strong sellers there. ✔ Lower highs forming The candles show a series of lower highs, meaning bulls are failing to push up. ✔ Price failing to break 4080–4090 This zone is acting as strong intraday resistance. Your arrow shows price retesting it — that is a typical retracement before continuation down.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by WilliamCrook99
Gold rebound presents an opportunity，Why wait and do nothing?Following the release of supplementary US non-farm payroll data for September, the relatively strong job growth coupled with a resurgence in the unemployment rate has once again created a contradictory situation in the market. This has also led to growing disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding whether to continue cutting interest rates in December. Judging from the recent tone of Fed officials' speeches, most officials lean towards a conservative and cautious approach, believing that maintaining the current interest rate is appropriate. The recent performance of the US dollar index best illustrates this point, putting significant pressure on gold, which has repeatedly weakened. However, there is clear buying interest at lower levels, with each sell-off followed by a rapid rebound, though the momentum has been weak. Intraday, gold retraced to around 4060, quickly rebounded to around 4080, and then fell back again. During the European session, it broke below the key short-term support around 4040, accelerating its decline and briefly touching around 4022. It then fluctuated before gradually stabilizing around 4030. Currently, the US session has seen another rapid rebound, mirroring yesterday's pattern. The recommended strategy is to look for opportunities to short after rallies. The short-term tone is set, and market sentiment is destined to be weak; at least avoid excessive shorting at lower levels. Gold Trading Strategy: Sell gold in batches around 4080-4100, with a target of 4060-4030.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Daniel_PrimeFX