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Triple Logic Resonance, Abundant Upside MomentumCore Bullish Supports: Triple Logic Resonance, Abundant Upside Momentum 1.Rising Rate Cut Expectations, Sustained Release of Policy Dividends Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have surged significantly. Coupled with the high negative correlation between the U.S. Dollar Index and gold prices (a 1% drop in the dollar drives a 3.82% rise in gold), this provides core support for gold. Although the U.S. Dollar Index has stabilized after falling since October, it has declined by nearly 10 percentage points cumulatively this year. The weakening of U.S. dollar credit and the accelerated global de-dollarization trend are long-term positive factors for the revaluation of gold’s monetary attributes. Historical data shows that during phases of rising rate cut expectations in an uptrend, the probability of gold rising within 3 trading days reaches 68%, and the current policy environment remains favorable for bulls. 2. Differentiated Geopolitical Risks, Structural Support from Safe-Haven Demand The geopolitical landscape is characterized by "multi-point disturbances": The sudden escalation of the Israel-Lebanon conflict—Israeli air strikes killed the second-highest-ranking Hezbollah official, and the Israeli military stated it "may return to combat"—has driven a short-term surge in safe-haven sentiment. However, peace talks on the Russia-Ukraine conflict have made progress, with substantive results from the U.S.-Ukraine Geneva negotiations, partially reducing the safe-haven premium. This differentiated pattern has led to "pulsed release" of safe-haven demand, but it has not changed gold’s allocation value as a safe-haven asset, serving as a key support during pullbacks from highs. 3. Central Bank Gold Purchases + Supply-Demand Gap, Solid Bottom Support Global central banks’ enthusiasm for gold purchases remains high: Net gold purchases reached 220 tons in Q3 2025, a month-on-month increase of 28%, with cumulative purchases of 634 tons in the first three quarters—significantly higher than the average level before 2022. Meanwhile, on the supply side, mined gold output fell by 3.2% year-on-year; on the demand side, China’s gold bar and coin consumption surged by 46% year-on-year. The supply-demand gap has led to a long-term premium in Shanghai spot gold prices, limiting the room for gold price pullbacks. The $4,100 mark has not been broken after multiple tests, transforming into a strong support zone. Coupled with the protection of central bank gold purchase cost zones, the probability of a short-term breakdown is extremely low. Gold trading strategy buy：4130-4140 tp:4150-4170-4200 sl:4115
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Thorne-
PULL BACK NEEDED ON XAU/USDXAU/USD 1H - Typical lol, as you can see price came to clear a FVG this time round rather than the order block I had marked out lower, where as further down it was the other way round. This is not something we could have predicted. Price realistically didnt give us a clean entry after trading into this gap either, its now a case of waiting for price to pullback for a third time. Once we see price pullback cleanly and we are delivered with means to buy in this is when we look to take part, the markets force us to be patient, when we arent mistakes are made. I place no more than 2-3 trades a week for this very reason, quality over quantity every time. If we can hold off and wait for the right moment we will prosper, I will apply some alerts in areas of interest and update you all if and when.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Lukegforex
GOLD TOP - Short Now or Forever Hold Your Piece...If you don’t know when to get out, don’t get in. And right now, it’s pretty clear it’s time to step aside. People keep acting like gold is independent, but if you don’t see how closely it moves with the stock market, then you’re missing how the liquidity side of this works. When liquidity dries up, everything feels it. Rates look ready to push hard, and most people aren’t even factoring that in. AriasWave already laid out why this is happening and where it leads. It’ll make sense when the pieces line up. If you want the deeper breakdown, let me know and I’m happy to post about it. Stay tuned for the full market breakdown video where I show you just how correlated gold is with the stock markets and what that pattern means. Also, check out the reversal pattern for gold on the weekly chart... if you can tell me what Steve Nison would call the reversal pattern then I will mention your name in the next video.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by AriasWave
XAUUSD 30M – Breakout + Retest Play | Smart Money BiasFOREXCOM:XAUUSD Price successfully broke out of the descending structure and reclaimed previous resistance as support, showing bullish order flow. Two demand zones are visible: First Entry Zone: 4,148–4,158 Layer Entry (Strong Demand): 4,120–4,132 If price retests either zone and holds support, continuation toward higher liquidity remains likely. Liquidity sits above 4,195–4,210, with extended draw toward 4,238–4,245. Scenarios ✅ Bullish Continuation (Primary Bias) Hold above 4,148–4,158 🎯 Target 1: 4,178 🎯 Target 2: 4,205 🎯 Target 3 (Final): 4,238–4,245 zone 🧱 Layer Entry: If first zone fails → looking for reaction at 4,120–4,132 demand. ❌ Invalidation: Break and close below 4,112 (structure flips bearish) 📌 Key Levels Support: 4,148 / 4,132 / 4,112 Resistance: 4,178 / 4,205 / 4,238–4,245 ⚠️ Educational only — not financial advice.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Gold-Thoughts-by-Selena
Likely Scenario for Gold: A Bearish MoveUsing wave analysis, the chart suggests that gold is likely entering a potential downward movement. After completing the internal wave C within the corrective structure, we may now be heading toward the larger bearish wave C.** **This is currently the most probable scenario to unfold on the gold chart. We observe the developments closely with the eye of a hunter, and I will publish the exact entry point once a high-quality setup appears. CAPITALCOM:GOLD Stay tuned
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by GhostSnipertrader
GOLD Triangle Almost Over — Green Arrow to $8000+ Begins After WHere’s the fresh update on Gold that many of you have been waiting for. In my previous idea I said we had two active scenarios: 🟠 Either we were still building wave C (orange arrow → deeper correction), 🟣Or wave C was already complete and the chart was finishing wave D inside a huge triangle (purple arrow), after which the final green arrow up would start. My current view: Wave D (purple arrow) is almost complete! This means we are literally one step away from a new all-time high. Wave E of this giant triangle is going to form right now — and once it’s finished, Gold will explode upward with the powerful green arrow. Reminder: my global target remains above $8000+ in the coming years 📈 That’s why we need to watch the completion of wave E very closely — this will be the last major buying zone before the real moonshot! Stay tuned, I’ll post the exact entry zone as soon as wave E shows its final structure. Don’t miss it — follow and turn on notifications! 🔔 Who’s ready for new ATHs very soon? Let me know in the comments! 👇
TVC:GOLDLong
by chart1stry
XAU/USD – Price Rejects Key Resistance ZoneXAU/USD – Price Rejects Key Resistance Zone, Bearish Correction Toward 4110 Likely Gold on the H1 timeframe is showing clear signs of exhaustion after retesting the major resistance zone around 4165–4175. The market has formed a lower high structure combined with weakening bullish momentum, suggesting that a short-term bearish correction is now the higher-probability scenario. Price has already broken the minor intraday structure and is showing early confirmation of a potential move toward the demand zone at 4110–4120. Key Technical Levels Resistance (Recently Rejected) 4165 – 4175: Strong supply zone; market rejected sharply from here. Support 4110 – 4120: Major intraday demand zone; high chance for price to react and bounce. 4020 – 4050: Deeper support if market accelerates downward. Price Action Insights The lower high formation indicates buyers losing strength. Market broke the minor structure after failing to push above 4175. EMA9 flattening → momentum shift toward neutral/bearish. Liquidity below recent swing lows makes 4110 a natural downside target. Bearish Trading Plan (Primary Setup) Scenario – Sell the Breakdown Entry Zone: 4158 – 4162 (current retest area) SL: Above 4178 TP1: 4120 TP2: 4110 This setup aligns with the structure and liquidity sweep expectation. Bullish Contingency (Low Probability) Only consider buying if: Price reclaims and closes strongly above 4175 This would invalidate the bearish structure Upside targets: 4200 → 4220 Market Outlook Gold is entering a corrective phase after repeated rejection from major resistance. As long as the 4175 ceiling holds, the bias remains bearish toward the 4110–4120 demand zone.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion
XAUUSD – Clean Sell Setup Loading! (1H Analysis)Gold just tapped into a major supply zone and is showing exhaustion after a strong bullish push. This level has rejected price multiple times in the past — and we’re seeing similar behavior again. 📍 Key Zones 🔴 Supply Zone (Sell Area): 4160 – 4200 Price is reacting strongly here. Last time we touched this zone, Gold dropped aggressively. 🔵 Major Support / Breaker Level: 4081 This is the main target area. Price has respected this level for weeks. If sellers take over, this is the next magnet. 🟢 Demand Zone: 4080 – 4020 Expect buyers to step in here again. --- 📉 My Bias: Short-Term Sell After tapping the red zone, momentum is slowing down. I expect a short-term retracement to 4081 before any continuation. 🔻 Sell Scenario Sell from: 4160–4180 Target: 4081 Extended TP: 4020 Invalidation: Break and close above 4200 --- 📊 Why This Setup Makes Sense Clean retest of supply Weakening bullish momentum Rejection wicks forming Previous structure shows heavy selling from this region Gold likes to fake out before major drops, so stay sharp. ⚡ --- 💬 What do you think? Are you selling from this zone as well? Drop your bias in the comments 👇 If this analysis helps, LIKE & FOLLOW for more REAL price action setups! 💚📈
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FrankAgbo
Gold Climbs a Slippery Ladder Into Holiday LiquidityGold is trading with a bullish bias as rate-cut expectations and softer USD support the metal, but the next leg likely depends on whether incoming US macro data confirms “cooling without breaking.” On the 30-minute chart, price structure is constructive: higher lows, price holding above the key retracement zone, and momentum/flow indicators leaning positive—but near-term upside is running into a defined extension band around 4,168–4,184. Base case is a continuation grind toward 4,168 then 4,184, with shallow pullbacks holding above 4,156/4,138; the probability of whipsaws is elevated into US holiday-thinned liquidity. The main downside risk is a reversal driven by a USD/yields rebound; technically that would likely show up as a failed break above 4,168 and a loss of 4,156, opening 4,138 then 4,121. Trading Takeaways (practical, not predictions) In the base case, 4,168 is the first “prove it” level. If price breaks and holds above it (acceptance), the next magnets are 4,184 and 4,202. If you see rejection at 4,168 with weakening PPO/MFI, treat it as a short-term exhaustion warning rather than an automatic trend reversal. The pivotal risk level is 4,156: holding above keeps the bullish structure; losing it increases the odds of a deeper reset to 4,139 then 4,121. Expect whipsaws: holiday liquidity turns clean levels into elastic bands. Read full article here: erranteacademy.com
ERRANTE:XAUUSD
by Errante
XAUUSD LONG TERM NEXT MOVE POSSIBLE ✅ Technical Analysis Breakdown (XAUUSD – 1H Chart) gold chart shows a rising wedge / ascending channel, and price is currently reacting at the mid-range support. You’ve drawn two potential outcomes – continuation upward or bearish breakdown. Let’s analyze both with precision. 📌 1. Current Market Structure Price is inside a large upward channel. It recently rejected from the upper trendline, pulling back toward the mid-channel support. Price is now sitting near the horizontal support zone ~ 4045–4034. This is a reaction zone where the next direction should become clear. 📈 2. Bullish Scenario (Bounce & Rally Toward 4250+) Conditions for upside: Price must break and hold above 4055 (you marked this level). Bullish structure resumes with higher lows. Target moves: 1st target: 4160 2nd target: 4250 3rd target: Retest of the channel top near 4300–4330 Your blue arrow upward matches this exact pathway. Why this can happen: Price still respecting the ascending channel. Mid-channel support is holding. Buyers may step in near support. 📉 3. Bearish Scenario (Breakdown to 3920–3890 Zone) This becomes active only if price breaks below the rising trendline around 4020–4010. Bearish targets: 1st target: 3980 2nd target: 3920–3890 (your green demand zone) This is a strong liquidity pool where buyers previously entered. Your downward arrow correctly points toward this demand zone. Why this can happen: Rising wedge patterns often break down. Momentum is currently weakening. Massive liquidity below 4000. 🎯 4. What Is Most Likely Right Now? Based on the chart: ✔ Price is testing support. ✔ Still inside the bullish channel. ✔ No confirmed breakdown yet. ➡ Bias: Short-term bullish unless 4020 breaks. Once 4020 breaks cleanly → bearish continuation becomes very likely. 🧭 5. Simple Trading Plan (Based on Your Zones) Bullish Setup Buy above: 4055 SL: 4020 TP: 4160 → 4250 → 4320 Bearish Setup Sell after breakdown below: 4020 SL: 4050 TP: 3980 → 3920 → 3890 For More Updates Stay Tuned
OANDA:XAUUSD
by wiqi4u
Gold continues its upward trend. Continue buying.Gold prices remained range-bound above 4110 on Tuesday, with the short-term upward trend unchanged. Yesterday's article clearly stated that after breaking through the key resistance zone of 4110-4130, a short-term pullback to near support levels could present a buying opportunity, but one should not be overly optimistic about this upward move. Recently, the most influential news is the expectation of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and Tuesday's news that Ukraine has agreed to the terms of a peace agreement. One is positive, the other negative, but the expectation of a rate cut alone is unlikely to drive a significant rise in gold prices. The expectation of a Fed rate cut forms the core support currently, reinforced by dovish comments from several officials. If subsequent economic data is weak, the upward momentum in gold prices will continue. Geopolitical risks have not completely subsided; details of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and the Middle East conflict remain uncertain, and market risk aversion could escalate at any time. Technically, Tuesday's daily candlestick chart shows intense competition between bulls and bears; the 4-hour chart shows a bullish moving average alignment, with the Bollinger Bands widening upwards, and gold prices trading along the upper band, indicating a slightly stronger short-term trend. In the short term, a buy-on-dips strategy is recommended, with a key focus on the resistance level around 4180. Trading Strategy: Buy at 4130-4135, stop loss at 4120, take profit at 4180; if it breaks through, watch the 4200 level.I will adjust the strategy flexibly according to market fluctuations and update it in the channel.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Quaid_3
XAU/USD: Decision at $4,190! Interest rate cuts boost Gold?I. 📰 FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS (FA) Focus: The Dovish stance of the Fed is weakening the USD, supporting Gold. Fed Signal: Fed officials are ready to cut interest rates soon due to economic data (Retail Sales, Consumer Confidence) indicating a slowdown. Expectation: The market is highly pricing in the possibility of a 25bps rate cut by the Fed in December. Conclusion: Gold (XAU) has a strong Bullish foundation from macro factors. II. 📈 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (TA) Position: Gold is touching the DISCOUNT ZONE, a critical technical barrier that needs to be broken. SELL Scenario (Short-term): Wait for rejection signals at the resistance zone to target a correction towards lower support levels. BUY Scenario (Long-term): If the FA force is strong enough, a BREAK AND CLOSE above the resistance zone is needed to confirm continued upward momentum. 💡 STRATEGY Monitor price action at Resistance: Trade based on Confirmation of reversal signals in this area, or wait for a Breakout. #XAUUSD #Gold #Fed #DXY #TechnicalAnalysis #FundamentalAnalysis #TradingStrategy
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Jeremy_NPC