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XAUUSD FOLLOW UP ANALYSISAs things progress with XAUUSD, From the analysis , you can see the trendline liquidity on that area, with price movement failing to make a high, we get confirmation that our ChOCh is valid, we now look forward to sells to break and take that liquidity and in relation to our ChOch , lm expecting price to push further down to reach levels around our ChoCh , which is to be TP 1.... If all goes as anticipated, we can expect price to keep pushing down to form a series of Higher Low and Lower Low DISCLAIMER : This is not to be considered as investment advice, This is post is for educational purposes, the markets are volatile and can move in the opposite direction
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MR_E_FOREX
I'm going to continue shorting gold! Are you ready?This week's gold price movement largely aligned with my trading strategy. I shorted gold at the opening on Monday, targeting a low of $4,000. After breaking below $4,000, the price rebounded, recovering its losses on the back of the initial jobless claims data and rising back above $4,100. It then encountered resistance near $4,130 and fell back. This price action was consistent with my view that shorting gold in the $4,125-$4,135 range was very effective, as the market subsequently fell by tens of dollars. Due to the decline in gold prices and the shift in the center of gravity, the entry price also needs to be lowered. I plan to short gold in batches in the $4095-$4115 range. The technical outlook is currently dominated by a bearish trend, making this area relatively safe. The above are my personal thoughts! If this is helpful to you or if you share the same ideas, please like and follow to show your support! All strategies have a limited lifespan. While referring to them, it's also important to closely monitor market changes. I will also respond flexibly based on actual market fluctuations!
FOREXCOM:GOLDShort
by Martin_Trading_Guide
2
Cockeyed H&S Pattern On Gold/USDFellow traders and followers! Lookie here! We have a cockeyed drunkin leaning H&S pattern on the 4hr Gold/USD. What we gonna do? We short it at a break below the break line of 4054.65. If you want to play it on the conservative side you can wait for the break of the neck support line. Measured target - 3900.10 area. No surprise right? Haha! We sit and we wait to have price action prove to us that this pattern will play out as outlined. See you at the starting line my trader friends :) $
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Trade-Farmer
Smart Money Concept (GOLD)📊 PROFESSIONAL BREAKDOWN 1️⃣ Accumulation + Liquidity build-up Price formed a solid range where liquidity was built on both sides, preparing the institutional move. 2️⃣ ChoCH + BOS: Real bullish shift The sequence confirms bullish intent with both a structural break and a change of character. 3️⃣ Fake Out / Liquidity Grab A sweep above the range confirms manipulation and removes buy-side liquidity before the true move. 4️⃣ Clean rejection at support The current rejection aligns perfectly with institutional demand, validating the BUY zone. 5️⃣ Optimal BUY at 4,056 Confluences: • ChoCH retest • Support zone • Previous FVG • Strong rejection 6️⃣ Professional SL at 4,028 Placement is clean, safe, and protected from volatility spikes. 7️⃣ Target areas • TP1: 4,112 → resting liquidity • TP2: 4,150 → FVG mitigation in 1H Both targets align with institutional price delivery. 🌟 Motivational Message “Mastery comes from understanding the story behind each candle. Keep sharpening your institutional eye.” GOOD LUCK TRADERS
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by Fonseca87
Gold (XAU/USD) 2H Chart Analysis – Sell Setup from High ProbabilBased on the chart you provided, Gold is currently reacting near a High Probability POI (supply zone) after a corrective bullish move. The structure still shows: Lower highs and lower lows → Bearish market structure Price is approaching a supply zone where sellers previously dominated Liquidity has been taken above internal highs (marked as "$$$"), indicating a liquidity grab This supports a short position idea from the supply zone. 🔍 Key Technical Levels Zone / Level Meaning 4,125 – 4,150 USD High Probability POI / Supply (Sell area) 4,080 – 4,100 USD Entry region (price is currently here) 4,040 – 4,025 USD First reaction / partial take zone (50% area) 3,990 – 4,000 USD Main Target (previous demand + equal lows) 🎯 Suggested Target Primary Target: $4,000 (Exactly aligning with your chart’s marked “TARGET” zone where liquidity sits) If momentum continues and structure breaks more aggressively: Extended Target: $3,975 – $3,960 (deeper sweep into demand) 🛑 Risk Management Detail Level Stop Loss Above 4,155 USD (beyond POI + liquidity) R:R Potential Approx. 1:3 to 1:4 📌 Summary Price has retraced into a key supply zone Liquidity was taken → seller confirmation likely Expectation is continuation downward towards the liquidity pool below 📊 Title Recommendation: “Gold Retests Supply Zone – Bearish Continuation Toward $4,000 Expected”
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Pipshunter27
Continue shorting gold in the 4085-4105 range!This week's gold price movement largely aligned with my trading strategy. Starting Monday, I shorted gold, targeting a low of $4000. After breaking below $4000, gold rebounded, recovering its losses on the back of initial jobless claims data and rising back above $4100. It then encountered resistance near $4130 and fell back. This price action was consistent with my initial view that shorting gold in the $4125-$4135 range was highly effective, with the market falling by tens of dollars. www.tradingview.com The gold market is currently closed. Shorting gold can continue after the market reopens. Due to the decline in gold prices and the shift in the center of gravity, the entry price will also shift downwards. I plan to short gold in batches in the 4085-4105 range. Technically, the downtrend is currently dominant, and this area is relatively safe. The above represents only my personal thoughts. If you find it helpful, please like and follow to show your support! Please note that any strategy is time-sensitive, and strategies will change as market conditions evolve. I will notify you in the channel based on the actual market situation!
TVC:GOLDShort
by Market_Trading_Guide
Gold HTF analysis-currently we are seeing the Fed is leaning less dovish to Hawkish, considering Rate Holds since inflation is still elevated. Now if this is the case and the Fed continues this narrative in to December, then we could expect. >DXY Bulls >Gold Bears >Stock market bears >BTC bears. - now inorder to do so, we could see price retest higher supply zones to generate liquidity before continuing to the downside. now. We musnt forget that overall the Fed is on a Rate cutting Cycle and this is merely just a pause, as a result, we could expect Gold, Stock markets & cypto to restest better demand zones before rising agian overall.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Jawad_Khalili1
DeGRAM | GOLD will test the $4000 level📊 Technical Analysis ● The XAU/USD hourly chart shows price failing to break above the descending resistance line, reinforcing a bearish structure. ● Price is now approaching the long­term rising support line near ~4,000; a break below this trendline would open downside toward ~3,930. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● Gold faces pressure as U.S. Treasury yields climb and real U.S. rates remain elevated, reducing the appeal of zero-yielding bullion. ✨ Summary Resistance: ~4,110. Support: ~4,000 → ~3,930. Short-term bias: bearish while below resistance and at risk of breakdown below trendline. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by DeGRAM
1
GOLD UNDER PRESSURE - NFP DAY! 💰 GOLD UNDER PRESSURE - NFP DAY! ⚠️ Current Price: $4,066 - $4,078 🔴 Opening Price: $4,078 Today's Range: $4,042 - $4,110 Yesterday: Trimmed gains after hitting $4,132 Monthly Performance: -4.29% ❌ Status: 🔴 BEARISH - CRITICAL NFP DAY 🚨 TODAY - SEPTEMBER NFP REPORT! 📊 THE MOST IMPORTANT DATA RELEASE! First jobs report since government shutdown. This will move gold MASSIVELY! What's Happening: ❗ September NFP Today - First post-shutdown jobs data (8:30 AM ET) ❗ FOMC Minutes Yesterday - No major surprises, cautious tone ❗ Gold Trimming Gains - Fell from $4,132 to $4,066 ❗ Dollar Strengthening - DXY above 99.50, pressuring gold ❗ December Rate Cut Odds - Dropped to 46.6% (from 62.9% last week) ❗ Risk-Off Mood - But not helping gold due to strong USD 📊 NFP EXPECTATIONS & IMPACT Forecast: Nonfarm Payrolls: +50,000 (vs +22,000 in August) Unemployment Rate: 4.3% (unchanged) Average Hourly Earnings: Key inflation indicator How NFP Affects Gold: Strong NFP (>50K) = GOLD DOWN 🔴 Fed less likely to cut rates Dollar strengthens Gold typically drops 30-50+ pips Weak NFP (<50K) = GOLD UP 🟢 Fed more likely to cut rates Dollar weakens Gold typically rallies 40-60+ pips In-Line NFP (~50K) = CHOPPY ⚪ Mixed reaction Depends on other components (wages, unemployment) 📊 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Market Structure: BEARISH 🔴🔴 Gold failed to break above $4,112 resistance yesterday despite FOMC. Now trading below key support. Bears have control short-term. Key Development: Gold trimmed earlier gains, trading around $4,090, easing from intraday high near $4,132. Bulls tested $4,112 resistance but failed. Critical Support Levels (Under Attack!) 🔵 Support 1: $4,065 - $4,075 (Current fight zone) Support 2: $4,042 - $4,050 (Today's low - Critical) Support 3: $4,000 - $4,005 (Psychological - Major) Support 4: $3,987 - $4,002 (November open) Support 5: $3,965 (November 6 low) Key Resistance Levels (Recovery barriers) 🔴 Resistance 1: $4,090 - $4,100 (Immediate ceiling) Resistance 2: $4,112 - $4,120 (20-day SMA - Strong) Resistance 3: $4,140 - $4,150 (Major barrier) Resistance 4: $4,170 - $4,212 (Last week's range) 📈 TECHNICAL INDICATORS RSI (14): 46 (Bearish - Neutral zone but trending down) 📉 RSI (4H): 46 (Neutral-to-bearish tone) MACD: Momentum indicator turned lower below midline ❌ Moving Averages: Price below 20-SMA ($4,080) 🔴 20-SMA acting as resistance ❌ 100-SMA and 200-SMA still below (long-term bullish) ✅ Pattern: Broader SMA configuration points to consolidative bias Volume: Above average - Institutional positioning for NFP 🎯 TODAY'S TRADING STRATEGIES SCENARIO 1: WEAK NFP 🟢 (40% Probability) IF NFP < 50K (Weaker than expected): Fed rate cut odds increase → Dollar falls → Gold RALLIES! LONG Setup: Entry: Immediate spike after NFP (within 5 min) Targets: TP1: $4,100 📍 (+30 pips) TP2: $4,120 📍 (+50 pips) TP3: $4,150 📍 (+80 pips) Stop Loss: $4,040 (Tight - move to breakeven fast!) Risk/Reward: 1:2+ ratio ✅ SCENARIO 2: STRONG NFP 🔴 (45% Probability) IF NFP > 50K (Stronger than expected): Fed stays hawkish → Dollar strengthens → Gold DROPS! SHORT Setup: Entry: Immediate drop after NFP Targets: TP1: $4,042 📍 (-25 pips) TP2: $4,000 📍 (-65 pips) TP3: $3,987 📍 (-80 pips) Stop Loss: $4,095 ⚠️ WARNING: Fast-moving market - use tight stops! SCENARIO 3: IN-LINE NFP ⚪ (15% Probability) IF NFP ~50K (As expected): Strategy: WAIT for Clear Direction First 15-30 min will be CHOPPY Look at other components (wages, unemployment) Trade the SECOND move after dust settles Direction depends on market interpretation 💎 NFP TRADING PLAN (Step-by-Step) BEFORE NFP (Now until 8:30 AM ET): ✅ Close ALL positions or set VERY wide stops ✅ Reduce position size to 50% of normal ✅ Set alerts at $4,100 and $4,040 ✅ Be ready - Have orders prepared but NOT placed ✅ Stay calm - Don't panic trade! DURING NFP (8:30-8:35 AM ET): ⏰ Read the number - Higher or lower than 50K? 👀 Watch initial reaction - Which way is it moving? ⚠️ Wait 2-3 minutes - Let fake moves clear 🎯 Confirm direction - Is it continuing or reversing? AFTER NFP (8:35+ AM ET): ✅ Enter ONLY if direction is clear ✅ Use smaller positions - Volatility extreme! ✅ Move SL to breakeven after +20 pips ✅ Take partial profits at each target ✅ Trail your stop - Protect profits! 🌍 FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS YESTERDAY'S FOMC MINUTES: Cautious tone but no major surprises Focused on data-dependent approach Concerns about post-shutdown economic weakness No clear signal on December cut Market Reaction: Muted - Gold initially spiked to $4,132 then fell back TODAY'S NFP - WHAT MATTERS: Most Important: Headline NFP Number (+50K expected) Unemployment Rate (4.3% expected) Average Hourly Earnings (inflation signal) Why This NFP is Special: First data since 43-day shutdown May show shutdown impact on economy Will heavily influence December Fed decision Could reset market expectations entirely BULLISH FACTORS ⬆️ ✅ Weak Jobs Data Expected - Shutdown impact likely ✅ Government Concerns - Economic weakness possible ✅ Analysts still predict gold may reach $4,456-$4,509 end November ✅ Central banks targeting 750-900 tonnes purchases 2025 ✅ If NFP weak → Rate cut odds rise → Gold up BEARISH RISKS ⬇️ ⚠️ Strong Dollar - DXY above 99.50 and strengthening ⚠️ December Cut Odds Low - Only 46.6% now ⚠️ Failed $4,112 Break - Bears defending ⚠️ Technical Weakness - Below 20-SMA ⚠️ If NFP strong → Rate cut odds fall → Gold down 🔥 MARKET SENTIMENT: EXTREMELY CAUTIOUS Pre-NFP Positioning: Traders are: Closing longs ahead of NFP Waiting on sidelines Expecting big volatility USD bulls positioning for strength Analyst Views: Gold may stay pressured near $4,078 unless it reclaims $4,112-$4,140 Post-NFP Targets: Weak NFP: $4,150-$4,200 Strong NFP: $4,000-$3,965 💡 PROFESSIONAL GAME PLAN For DAY TRADERS: ⚡ DO NOT TRADE 30 MIN BEFORE NFP! Close all positions by 8:00 AM ET Wait for NFP release at 8:30 AM ET Let first 2-3 min settle Trade the confirmed direction Use TIGHT stops (20-30 pips max) Take quick profits For SWING TRADERS: 📊 Today Decides the Week! IF weak NFP → Go LONG for $4,150-$4,200 (hold 3-5 days) IF strong NFP → Stay FLAT or SHORT to $4,000 This data will set trend for rest of November For LONG-TERM INVESTORS: 💎 Patience! IF gold drops to $3,950-$4,000 after strong NFP → BUY IF gold rallies on weak NFP → Wait for next dip Long-term target still $4,500+ (2026) 📅 TODAY'S TIMELINE Pre-Market: Consolidation $4,065-$4,080 (nervous calm) 8:30 AM ET: NFP RELEASE 🔥🔥🔥 8:30-8:45 AM: EXTREME volatility (100+ pip moves possible!) 9:00 AM-12:00 PM: Direction confirmed, follow-through Afternoon: Profit-taking, position adjustments 🎬 BOTTOM LINE (TL;DR) Price: $4,066-$4,078 (Weak) Event: NFP TODAY 8:30 AM ET Bias: NEUTRAL until NFP (Then clear!) Strategy: WAIT for NFP, trade the reaction Risk Level: EXTREME (Highest this month!) 🔔 NFP CHEAT SHEET Strong NFP (>60K): Gold → $4,000-$4,042 🔴 Action: SHORT or stay flat Expected NFP (~50K): Gold → Choppy $4,050-$4,100 ⚪ Action: Wait for secondary move Weak NFP (<40K): Gold → $4,120-$4,150+ 🟢 Action: LONG aggressively Remember: First move can be fake! Wait for confirmation! 📊 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Trend: ⚠️ BULLISH (Long-term) but BEARISH (Short-term) Momentum: WEAK - Bears in control 🔴 Support: TESTING at $4,065-$4,075 ⚠️ Resistance: STRONG at $4,090-$4,112 🚧 Pattern: Failed breakout + Rejection at 20-SMA Today's Outcome: NFP decides EVERYTHING! ⚠️ RISK MANAGEMENT - NFP DAY! ✅ TINY Positions - Risk MAX 0.5% (Extreme volatility!) ✅ WIDE Stops - 40-50+ pips (Initial spikes huge) ✅ Quick Profits - Lock gains FAST (Market can reverse) ✅ NO Predictions - REACT to data, don't guess ✅ Breakeven Fast - Move SL to BE after +20 pips ✅ Accept Losses - If wrong, exit and wait 🎯 SWING TRADE SETUP (Post-NFP) Setup A - Weak NFP Rally: Entry: $4,080-$4,090 (after weak NFP confirmed) Target 1: $4,150 (Hold 2-3 days) Target 2: $4,200 (Hold 5-7 days) Stop Loss: $4,050 Setup B - Strong NFP Drop: Entry: $4,050-$4,060 (after strong NFP confirmed) Target 1: $4,000 (Hold 1-2 days) Target 2: $3,965 (Hold 3-5 days) Stop Loss: $4,085 🏆 NFP TRADING WISDOM Historical Patterns: Initial spike often REVERSES within 15 min True direction emerges after 30-60 min Average NFP move: 60-100 pips in first hour Gold inversely correlated with NFP surprises What Professional Traders Do: Close positions before NFP Wait for initial volatility to settle Trade the SECOND move (more reliable) Use smaller size than normal Move to breakeven quickly Don't fight the trend after NFP 🔮 FORECAST If Weak NFP: Today: Rally to $4,120-$4,150 Friday: Consolidate gains Next Week: Push to $4,200+ If Strong NFP: Today: Drop to $4,000-$4,042 Friday: Test support Next Week: Range $4,000-$4,100 If In-Line NFP: Today: Chop $4,050-$4,100 Friday: Direction unclear Next Week: Wait for more data 🚨 CRITICAL NFP REMINDERS ⚠️ BIGGEST VOLATILITY DAY - Expect 100+ pip swings! ⚠️ First Move Often FAKE - Don't chase immediately ⚠️ Slippage is HUGE - Market orders dangerous ⚠️ Spreads WIDEN - Costs increase dramatically ⚠️ News Can Leak - Sometimes moves before 8:30 ⚠️ Other Components Matter - Not just headline NFP ⚠️ Revisions Count - Previous months often revised 📊 SUPPORT/RESISTANCE SUMMARY Critical Support: $4,042, $4,000 (Must hold!) Strong Support: $4,065, $4,050 Weak Resistance: $4,090, $4,100 Strong Resistance: $4,112, $4,120, $4,150 NFP Breakout Up: $4,112 (Bulls win) NFP Breakdown Down: $4,042 (Bears win) ⚠️ FINAL DISCLAIMER Today is THE most volatile and dangerous trading day this month. NFP releases cause extreme price swings, false breakouts, stop hunting, and massive slippage. This analysis is for educational purposes only. NEVER trade the first minute after NFP. Use position sizes 50% smaller than normal. Always use stop losses. Be prepared to lose on this trade - even professionals get whipsawed. The market can gap through your stops. Past NFP reactions don't guarantee future results. If you're not experienced with NFP trading, STAY FLAT today. Consult a licensed financial advisor before trading. 📱 MOST DANGEROUS DAY! 💬 NFP at 8:30 AM ET 🔔 100+ pip moves expected ⚡ DON'T GUESS - REACT! 🙏 Trade safe or don't trade! #Gold #XAUUSD #NFP #NonFarmPayrolls #ForexTrading #JobsReport #HighVolatility #RiskManagement #DayTrading #EventTrading #FOMCMinutes #MarketAnalysis #CriticalData #TradingSafety
TVC:GOLD
by AthensBySahan
XAU/USD: Gold in Downtrend, Waiting for Demand Surge⏰ Timeframe: 30m 📅 Update: 11/20/2025 🔍 Market Context After the technical rebound at the beginning of the week, gold returns to adjust within the descending channel pattern, indicating that short-term upward momentum is temporarily weakening. The current structure reflects a rebalancing state after the price was rejected at the 4,127 USD supply zone – coinciding with the 30-minute frame Supply Zone. However, the Demand Zone below still plays an important role in maintaining the medium-term upward structure. 📊 Technical Structure Supply Zone (4,127 USD): main resistance area, confluence with the nearest peak – where the price was strongly rejected during the Asian session. OB Bearish (4,106 USD): short-term supply area, highly likely to be retested after completing the adjustment phase. Demand Zone (4,013 USD): main support area in the descending channel, also the confluence point between the channel boundary and the lower liquidity zone. Liquidity Sweep: signal indicating that lower liquidity has been absorbed, opening up the possibility of forming a higher low. 🎯 Market Outlook High probability scenario: 1️⃣ Price continues to fluctuate within the descending channel, retesting the 4,013 USD Demand Zone. 2️⃣ If a clear price reaction occurs, the market is likely to break the channel, opening up a technical rebound to OB Bearish 4,106 USD or Supply Zone 4,127 USD. 3️⃣ Losing the 4,013 USD area will temporarily invalidate the rebound structure, bringing the price back to a lower balance area around 3,990 USD. 🧠 Analyst’s View Gold is in a corrective pullback phase – where the market needs to regenerate liquidity before forming a new expansion wave. A reasonable scenario is sweep – retest – expansion: sweep lower liquidity, retest the supply area, then determine the main trend for the end of the week. Buyers still have a slight advantage as long as the Demand Zone is maintained. 🛡️ Risk Note This is a phase of market liquidity accumulation, fluctuations may be erratic.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Goldscale-Capital
XAUUSD correction?Gold (XAUUSD) Analysis – Correction After Multi-Day Rally Gold is currently undergoing a correction after two strong bullish days, driven by fading expectations of U.S. rate cuts. As rate-cut optimism weakens, the dollar strengthens and naturally pressures gold lower. Price has left several long wicks around the mid-channel zone, signaling rejection and suggesting a move toward the lower boundary of the ascending channel, around 4000–4015, during today’s session. If this zone holds as support, gold should remain inside its bullish channel structure, and we could see a throwback or bullish continuation tomorrow. However, if price breaks below 4000–4015, the next major support lies near 3960, where liquidity and previous demand converge.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Dan-Goldfx
XAUUSD: Gold Sitting on Key Support – Big Move Loading?Gold is currently reacting inside a major support zone, and price action is showing signs that bulls may step back in soon. The chart is giving us two clear bullish pathways — both pointing toward the same destination: the upper supply zone. --- 🔍 What the Chart Is Telling Me ✅ 1. First Support Zone Holding Price has been respecting the mid-support area for weeks now. Each time XAUUSD tapped this zone, buyers stepped in aggressively. ✅ 2. Possible Deeper Pullback If price fails to push straight up from here, we could still see a dip into the stronger demand zone below (the big green zone). That level has historically triggered massive rallies — it’s a high-value area for larger players. ✅ 3. Final Target Still the Same Both scenarios point toward the 4,150 – 4,200 supply zone (red area). This is where sellers previously dominated, so it’s a natural magnet for price. --- 📈 Bullish Scenarios Scenario A: Price respects the current support zone → Bounce → Continuation → Push into 4,150 – 4,200 Scenario B: Price dips into the deeper demand zone → Strong reaction → Bigger rally into 4,150 – 4,200 Either way, the market structure remains bullish as long as the lower zone holds. --- 🤔 What Do You Think? Is Gold gearing up for another bullish leg? Or will we sweep the lower demand zone first before the next big rally? 👇 Drop your thoughts below! 👍 Like this idea if it helped 🔔 Follow for daily XAUUSD updates
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by FrankAgbo
Gold – Outperforming During Market UncertaintyThe price of Gold has wobbled at times this week under the pressure of a period of broad-based risk aversion that can at times force traders to unwind popular positions to balance their portfolios, but it hasn’t yet buckled! In fact, after opening on Monday around 4080 and initially selling off with global stock indices and crypto currencies to a low of 3998 early on Tuesday morning, Gold briefly recovered to touch a high of 4132 on Wednesday before moving back down to trade closer to opening levels around 4075 (0630 GMT) Part of the resilience of Gold could be long term investors and central banks buying the dip as a diversification away from the dollar as their main safe haven asset, but it could also be down to an unstable global growth outlook, with the US and Chinese economies at potential crucial inflection points, concerns about financial risks in the private credit sector, as well as on-going geo-political uncertainty. However, Gold’s resilience may be about to face a sterner challenge of a surging US dollar. Overnight, while stronger than expected Q3 earnings and sales forecasts from NVIDIA have helped stabilise risk sentiment in the short term, the Federal Reserve minutes of their October rate meeting showed that Fed officials were leaning towards keeping rates unchanged for the rest of the year. As a rule, a lower interest rate environment is supportive of Gold prices as it is a non-interest-bearing asset and vice versa. Not only that, this hawkish tilt from the Fed minutes has seen the US dollar rally, a move that can also weigh on Gold which is priced in dollars, as it makes it more expensive for foreign investors. Further US dollar strength could be an area of concern moving into the release of the delayed September Non-farm payrolls report later today at 1330 GMT. This data may provide traders with more clarity about how quickly the US labour market is slowing, with an increased potential for greater swings in Gold prices as traders readjust positions for what the data could mean for the prospects of future Federal Reserve policy and the US dollar. Gold Technical Update: Is This April to July 2025 All Over Again? Gold hit an all‑time high of 4381 in October, but since then price action has been choppy, with a sharp 11.25% two‑week sell‑off into the recent lows. This kind of consolidation can often follow strong acceleration phases, raising the question of whether the popular metal is now entering a similar corrective pattern to the one seen between April and July 2025, when repeated swings and sideways trading dominated price action. Between April and July 2025, Gold surged to a high of 3500, before a sharp 11% sell‑off took price down to the 3120 May low. From there, the market shifted into a sideways consolidation phase, unwinding the earlier upside price overextension. This pause allowed the Bollinger mid‑average to ‘catch up’ with price, providing a support base. Once the average was tested, fresh price strength emerged to resume the broader uptrend. It’s worth stressing that while Gold consolidated between April and July, there’s no certainty the same pattern will repeat now. What history does show is that consolidation phases often act to unwind both upside and downside extremes, and that risk could be present in Gold over the coming days, weeks, or even months, as the market digests the recent volatility. Possible Shorter Term Support /Resistance Over Payrolls: While longer‑term risks point to possible consolidation, the short‑term focus in Gold is could be shaped by today’s September Payrolls release. This event could trigger price volatility, making it important to track daily support and resistance levels. Traders may be monitoring how price reacts around these key levels, as they may define the immediate directional bias. Potential Support Levels: The latest price weakness from the 4245 November 13th high has so far found support at the daily Bollinger mid‑average, currently at 4042. This level appears to be helping stabilise price activity and even seeing signs of recovery, keeping it as an important short‑term reference point. With the 4042-level established as the first potential support on Thursday, it may be monitored if weakness develops. A break below 4042 could open scope for further declines toward 3998, the November 18th low, and potentially to 3887, which is the October 28th low. b]Potential Resistance Levels: With a rally emerging from the support at 4042, traders could now be monitoring the November 13th high at 4245 as the first resistance. Since selling pressure has recently capped strength at this level, a closing break above 4245 may be needed to suggest further attempts at upside momentum. A break above 4245 might lead to renewed strength, with the focus then possibly shifting toward the October 20th all‑time high at 4381 as the next key resistance level. Today’s payrolls release could see increased short‑term price volatility, bringing daily support and resistance levels into focus. However, unless the data provides a clear directional signal, the broader risk backdrop could suggest Gold continues its consolidation, unwinding the recent over‑extended upside conditions further. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by Pepperstone
XAU/USD Intraday Plan – NFP Will Decide the Next MoveGold failed to clear the 4115 resistance yesterday, which led to a retest of the 4053 level — now acting as intraday support. Price is currently trapped between the MA200 and MA50, reflecting indecision ahead of the NFP release. We need to see a clean break above the immediate resistance at 4078. A sustained move above 4115 would confirm a momentum shift and open the door toward 4170 → 4232. If price fails to clear 4078, we may see continued consolidation or another pullback into the Support Zone. A break below 3,996 would expose the HTF Support Zone (3968–3921). 📌Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: 4078 4115 4170 4232 Support: 4053 4027 3996 3968 3921 🔎Fundamental Focus: Today is all about NFP, one of the most market-moving releases for gold. With job creation, wages, and unemployment all being published together, we can expect sharp volatility in both directions.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by azgoldtrader
1
The Arena of XAUUSD-GOLD: New Round BeginsMy friends, Good Morning, I have prepared a gold analysis for you in a swing trading structure. The timeframe of this analysis is 4 hours. In my XAUUSD-GOLD analysis, I will open sell positions between 4124.0 and 4176.0. My targets are: TP1 - 3995.0 and TP2 - 3969.0.📊 This analysis is purely for your information. To my friends who support each of my analyses with their likes, I share these analyses thanks to your likes, because every single like from you is my greatest source of motivation to keep posting. I sincerely thank all my friends who leave a like. 🙏 With respect and love.❤️
TVC:GOLD
by TraderTilki
24
Gold at Inflection Point: Bullish Reversal or Deeper Correction?XAUUSD is trading at 4,068.5 , sitting at a fascinating technical crossroads. After the recent pullback from all-time highs, the yellow metal is testing a critical support confluence that could determine the next major move. Let's examine what the charts are revealing. ✨ The Big Picture Gold has carved out a Falling Wedge pattern on the 1H timeframe—a classically bullish reversal structure. This compression between converging trendlines (upper resistance at 4,085 and lower support at 4,055) typically resolves with an upside breakout. We're currently bouncing off the lower boundary. The Dow Theory perspective shows the primary trend remains bullish on higher timeframes (4H/Daily), while the current pullback represents a healthy intermediate correction. The recent low at 4,042 held above the critical swing low at 4,020, maintaining the sequence of higher lows. Wyckoff Re-accumulation Phase 📊 The overnight price action displays textbook Wyckoff re-accumulation behavior within a trading range: Preliminary Support (PS) established at 4,042 Selling Climax (SC) absorbed with declining volume Automatic Rally (AR) back to 4,075 Secondary Test (ST) currently forming around 4,060-4,065 This structure suggests smart money is accumulating positions ahead of the next markup phase. Elliott Wave Interpretation 🌊 The wave count indicates we're in a corrective ABC pattern within a larger bullish impulse: Wave (A): Sharp decline from 4,120 to 4,042 Wave (B): Corrective bounce to 4,085 Wave (C): Final leg down potentially targeting 4,050-4,055 (or already complete) If the ABC correction is complete, we're positioned for wave (iii) of the next impulse targeting 4,150-4,200. Critical Price Levels 🎯 Resistance Zones: R1: 4,090 (wedge upper boundary + 50 EMA on 1H) R2: 4,120 (previous swing high + psychological) R3: 4,165 (Fibonacci extension 1.272) Support Zones: S1: 4,055 (wedge lower boundary + current pivot) S2: 4,042 (recent swing low + demand zone) S3: 4,020 (critical support + 200 EMA on 4H) Indicator Snapshot ⚡ RSI (1H): 44.8 - bullish divergence forming (price making lower lows, RSI making higher lows) Stochastic: Oversold at 22, curling upward (bullish reversal signal) VWAP: Sitting at 4,072, acting as immediate resistance Ichimoku Cloud: Price testing cloud support on 1H, Tenkan/Kijun preparing for bullish cross Volume: Declining on pullbacks (healthy correction characteristic) Harmonic Pattern Recognition A Bullish Gartley pattern has completed with precision: - X: 4,020 - A: 4,120 - B: 4,065 (0.618 retracement) - C: 4,095 - D: 4,050 (PRZ zone - Potential Reversal Zone) The pattern's completion at current levels adds significant confluence to the bullish reversal thesis. Japanese Candlestick Analysis The 15M chart printed a Bullish Hammer at 4,055, followed by a Morning Star formation. These reversal patterns at support suggest buyer conviction is building. Actionable Trade Setups 💰 Strategy 1 - Wedge Breakout Long: Entry: 4,092 (break above wedge resistance with volume) Target 1: 4,120 Target 2: 4,165 Stop Loss: 4,050 Strategy 2 - Support Zone Buy: Entry: 4,055-4,062 (current zone, limit orders) Target 1: 4,090 Target 2: 4,130 Stop Loss: 4,038 Timeframe Hierarchy 🕐 - 5M: Entry refinement and scalp management - 15M: Candlestick patterns and momentum confirmation - 1H: Primary pattern structure and trend direction - 4H: Macro trend validation and key support/resistance Market Verdict Gold is coiled at a pivotal support zone with multiple bullish signals converging. The falling wedge, Wyckoff re-accumulation, completed Gartley pattern, RSI divergence, and reversal candlesticks all point toward an upside resolution. The 4,055 level is your line in the sand—hold above it and we're likely heading to 4,120+. However, a decisive break below 4,042 would invalidate the bullish setup and open the door to 4,020. Until proven otherwise, the bias favors buyers at current levels. 🚀 Patience and precision win in this game. Wait for your setup, execute with discipline. ⚡ --- Risk Warning: Gold trading involves substantial risk. This analysis is educational content only, not financial advice. Always manage your risk appropriately.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by sunya
Gold Analysis - Channel Decline Toward Key Support LevelsGold is currently trading inside a descending channel, showing sustained short-term bearish momentum. Price continues to respect both the upper and lower channel boundaries, forming lower highs and lower lows. We have three key support zones highlighted below current price: • Support Level 1: Minor liquidity zone where a short-term reaction is possible • Support Level 2: Stronger demand area, likely to generate a corrective bounce • Support Level 3: Major support and potential reversal zone at the channel bottom The projected path shows price potentially continuing lower within the channel toward the deeper support levels before forming a bullish reversal. If price reacts at the lower boundary of the channel + major support, a breakout to the upside could target the 4,100+ area, aligning with the marked TARGET zone. Key Points: • Trend on 15m remains bearish until a channel breakout • EMA 9 and EMA 50 show downward pressure • Watching for bullish structure shift near lower support zone • Break and retest above the channel could confirm trend reversal Bias: Bearish short-term → Bullish reversal potential at deeper support.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Hamza_Gold
LiamTrading – XAUUSD H1 | A bearish structure has formed...LiamTrading – XAUUSD H1 | A bearish structure has formed, waiting for confirmation signals in the European session Overall, gold is in a corrective phase after the previous upward move. On H1, a clear Dow bearish structure (lower highs, lower lows) has formed, but the support area around 4,030 and the Fibonacci cluster below are still potential zones for a reversal buying force. Today's European session will be crucial to confirm: whether to continue a deep decline or bounce back according to the head and shoulders pattern forming on H4. Macro – Fundamental Brief The October Fed meeting minutes show a strong internal division: One group opposes rate cuts, wanting to maintain the current level. The other group supports cuts, even proposing further reductions in the December meeting. This lack of consensus reflects a high degree of monetary policy uncertainty, keeping defensive capital flows interested in gold. In the long term, gold only surges when confidence in the financial system weakens – the peak gold price is not a sign of prosperity, but a warning signal. Technical Analysis – H1 (trendline, Fibonacci, liquidity) The price is fluctuating below the short-term descending trendline, confirming the bearish phase is still in effect. The 4,082–4,090 zone is an “important liquidity zone” – where the price has reacted multiple times, currently acting as near resistance. The 4,029–4,031 cluster is crucial support: Coincides with technical support area + Fibonacci retracement level. Start of a large FVG running down to the 3,985 zone (Fibo 1.618 + psychological support). Above, the 4,129–4,130 zone is strong resistance (strong resistance on the chart); if the price surpasses and holds above this area, the Dow bearish structure will weaken significantly. Trading Scenario Reference BUY Scenario – buy at support / Fibonacci zone Logic: Price holds above support – Fibonacci, bottom-fishing capital appears. Entry BUY: 4,029–4,031 SL: 4,022 TP: 4,040 → 4,065 → 4,090 → 4,120 Only prioritize when the price reacts well at 4,029–4,031 (wick or clear reversal candle appears on M15–H1). If H1 closes below 4,022, this BUY scenario should be canceled. SELL Scenario – follow the current bearish structure (prioritize when trendline is not broken) Logic: Price retraces to retest resistance + descending trendline and is rejected. Entry SELL: 4,098–4,100 SL: 4,105 TP: 4,088 → 4,070 → 4,035 → 4,000–3,985 Only enter when the price hits the 4,098–4,100 zone and a clear rejection signal appears (pin bar/bearish engulfing). If H1 closes above 4,105 and breaks the trendline, stop all sell orders and reassess the structure. Notable Price Zones for Scalping 4,082 – 4,060 – 3,985 – 4,129 These zones can be used for short-term scalping based on price reactions, but reduce volume and close quickly. Important Note If the price is confirmed to close stably above the descending trendline and holds above the 4,090–4,100 zone, the priority will gradually shift to BUY setups, as a head and shoulders pattern (bullish reversal) is forming on H4. Conversely, if the 4,029–4,022 support is decisively broken, gold is likely to continue falling towards the FVG and Fibonacci 1.618 zone around 3,985. Which scenario are you leaning towards for gold today – retrace up to sell further or hold the bottom to bounce back? Leave a comment below the post and follow the LiamTrading channel for daily XAUUSD updates on TradingView.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LiamTradingFX
Brian here with the gold outlook for November 20th Good morning everyone, Brian here with the gold outlook for November 20th. The ABC correction phase of gold is nearly complete, and the market is preparing to enter a new wave phase amidst a flurry of USD data today. Fundamental Analysis Today's focus remains on the US labor data: NFP (or revisions), Unemployment Rate, and Initial Jobless Claims. If the data shows a cooling labor market, expectations for the Fed to soon pivot to a rate-cutting cycle will rise, weakening real yields, putting pressure on the USD, and supporting gold prices. Conversely, "too good" data will strengthen the dollar, allowing for a short-term repricing move, potentially dragging gold down to lower liquidity zones before recovering. US session liquidity may be thin before the news release, making it prone to spikes due to algorithms and large flows simultaneously adjusting positions. Overall, the macro backdrop still favors "buying the dip" for gold, but you must accept strong volatility around news time. Technical Analysis On the chart, gold has completed an ABC corrective wave within a descending channel, part of a larger uptrend. The current descending channel only serves as a corrective leg after the previous upward wave; prices are trading above the "mean" area of the bullish structure, indicating the larger market structure remains bullish. Below is the liquidity zone / demand zone 4013–4015, coinciding with the previous low and the lower channel boundary – if there's another stop-hunt to this area, it is still considered an opportunity to join the upward move, as long as 4008 is not breached. Above, the 4086–4100 cluster is the decision zone: breaking and holding above here will confirm exiting the corrective channel, triggering an impulsive leg towards resistances 4132–4146 and further to 4187. In summary, the main bias remains bullish, prioritizing buy strategies at support zones or after breakout confirmation. Key Price Levels Resistance: 4086 – 4100 – 4110 – 4132 – 4146 Support: 4040 – 4030 – 4015 Trading Scenarios Buy Scenario 1 – Continuation Breakout Entry: 4086 SL: 4078 TP: 4100 – 4120 – 4140 Prioritize when price breaks up and retests 4086–4100 as a new support zone, confirming exit from the descending channel. Buy Scenario 2 – Deep Liquidity Sweep Entry: 4015–4013 SL: 4008 TP: 4030 – 4045 – 4070 Watch for strong price reactions at the demand zone, with pin bars or engulfing candles signaling order flow returning to buyers. Sell Scenario – Sell Reaction at Strong Resistance Entry: 4144–4146 SL: 4151 TP: 4132 – 4120 – 4100 Short-term sell strategy, leveraging the high supply zone if price rises straight up without sufficient accumulation. The medium-term upside target if the bullish wave develops as expected remains the 4187 area. What do you think of this scenario? Remember to follow Brian for daily gold insights and comment your views below to join the discussion.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BrianLionCapital