Gold prices retreated slightly as market sentiment shifted towarGold prices retreated slightly as market sentiment shifted towards risk assets.
Gold prices fell during Asian trading hours on Thursday, primarily reflecting improved market risk appetite and reduced safe-haven demand due to thin trading during the holiday season. As market expectations for another Fed rate cut in December intensified, coupled with improved regional peace negotiations, global sentiment became more optimistic, prompting some funds to flow from gold to risk assets.
Fundamental Analysis
Fed Policy Expectations Support Gold Prices
Recent speeches by several Fed officials have clearly shifted towards a dovish stance. John Williams of the New York Fed stated that if the economy remains as it is, a rate cut would not affect the inflation target; Fed Governor Waller pointed out that the weakness in the labor market is sufficient to support another rate cut. Against this backdrop, the dollar index fell to a one-week low, continuing to provide support for gold.
Divergent Economic Data Does Not Change Expectations of Rate Cuts
Data from the U.S. Commerce Department showed that durable goods orders rose 0.5% in September, a significant slowdown from the previous 3.0%, but higher than the expected 0.3%. Orders excluding transportation rose 0.6%, indicating that the manufacturing sector remains resilient. Overall data did not change market expectations regarding the Fed's policy path.
Safe-haven demand was suppressed. Improved regional peace negotiations and a more positive external sentiment weakened gold's safe-haven appeal. Although negotiations remain far off, increased risk appetite is putting short-term pressure on gold prices.
Technical Analysis: The structure is consolidating. The four-hour chart shows gold in a triangle consolidation pattern, with the downward trendline resistance in the 4173-4175 range. A decisive break above this resistance is needed to open up new upward potential; otherwise, consolidation will continue.
Short-term pressure, watch for potential correction. The one-hour chart shows the price has broken below the short-term support zone and is under pressure from short-term moving averages, indicating a possible short-term correction. Key intraday resistance is at 4173-4175, with support at 4110-4100.
Trading Strategies
Short Position Strategy: If the price rebounds to around 4170-4173, consider shorting in batches with a stop-loss of 8 points. Target 4150-4130, with a further target of 4110 if it breaks below.
Long Position Strategy: If the price pulls back to around 4105-4110, consider going long in batches with a stop-loss of 8 points. Target 4130-4150, with a further target of 4170 if it breaks above.
Risk Warning: All trades require strict position control and stop-loss orders. Be wary of extreme market conditions caused by unforeseen events. Due to Thanksgiving in the US, the gold market will close early today, and trading may be light.
