XAGUSD H4 | Falling Towards 61.8% Fibonacci SupportMomentum: Bullish
Price action is currently retracing toward the buy entry level, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, an area that often acts as a strong reaction zone.
Buy Entry: 48.75
Strong overlap support
61.8% Fibonacci retracement confluence
Stop Loss: 47.50
Pullback support
78.6% Fibonacci retracement
Take Profit: 51.00
Pullback resistance
High Risk Investment Warning
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Futures market
If Nasdaq can crack the pressure line then...🔱 We have a Hagopian on the down-move. 🔱
Price was (so far) not able to reach the L-MLH of the red fork.
If buyers can eat through the pressure cheese, then the Long-Play is on.
Most often we see price breaking the pressure line and then coming back to it, scaring out the early longs, just to rush upwards again. So don’t panic if this happens. Place a proper stop and you're good.
As for targets, there is the red Centerline and the white Centerline.
On a break of the red CL, we have a high chance to see the same scenario as with the pressure line: UP-Down-MoreUp.
First snow in Switzerland arrived and Santa is preparing the reindeer to bring us some dough ;-)
Wish you all a profitable Friday.
Focus on opportunities to buy on dips.My thoughts on today's gold price movement!
From a technical perspective, gold is currently still consolidating at high levels, with the consolidation narrowing. Gold will face a choice in the near future. Looking at the price action, yesterday's US session saw gold prices rebound to a high below 4110 before encountering resistance and trending lower again. This area remains a significant resistance zone, and it's a key resistance level for short sellers to watch. Since the price hasn't broken through this level yet, we should continue to analyze the consolidation, buying low and selling high. The main resistance level is around 4100-4110. Therefore, if gold prices directly retest the 4100-4110 area and a clear bearish pattern forms, short positions can be initiated. However, if the price breaks strongly above this area, it's best to avoid short positions. Conversely, if the price first falls to test the 4040-4120 support level, long positions can be considered.
SILVER H4 | Bearish Reversal Off 61.8% Fibonacci ResistanceMomentum: Bearish
The price has rejected the sell-entry level, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, reinforcing the bearish bias.
Sell Entry: 52.170
Pullback resistance
61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Stop Loss: 54.04
Swing-high resistance
Take Profit: 49.47
Strong overlap support
High Risk Investment Warning
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ), Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
XAUUSD (GOLD)Could we be expecting a good bullish week next week on gold???
It holds positioning at a very interesting buying key zone where we are now seeing an indecision candle forming either only a few minutes to closure.
Let’s hold and wait, if this key zone zone hold then we expecting new highs next week.
LiamTrading – XAUUSD H1 | Gold breaks upward trend, short...LiamTrading – XAUUSD H1 | Gold breaks upward trend, short-term decline prevails
Gold has dropped more than $20 in a short time, down over 1% on the day and is approaching the area below 4,030. The previous upward structure has officially been broken, 4040 can no longer hold, today's focus continues to be on selling according to the trend until the support area 4000–398x shows a clear reaction.
Macro Analysis
Gold prices fall simultaneously with weakening expectations of a December rate cut: JPMorgan no longer forecasts the Fed will cut rates in December, unlike the previous scenario of a 25 bps cut.
Some other organizations still believe that rising unemployment and weak economic data may force the Fed to cut rates by 25 bps in the next meeting.
The market is pricing the possibility of a December rate cut at nearly "50–50", creating significant uncertainty and putting short-term pressure on gold, although in the long term it still benefits if the rate cut cycle occurs.
Technical Analysis H1 – Declining structure, price channel, and support area
After breaking 4040, the price creates a series of Lower High – Lower Low, confirming the Dow declining structure on H1.
A falling channel is forming; the upper boundary of the channel coincides with the short-term resistance area 4050–4060.
Area 4000: important psychological bottom. If decisively broken, the medium-term structure may shift to a deeper correction phase.
Buy zone 3987–3989:
Strong support confluence + Fibonacci extension area (1.618/2.272) of the current decline.
Optimal area to watch for a rebound if there is a clear reversal signal.
Main resistance of the day:
4052–4054: retest area of old support + upper boundary of the falling channel → suitable for a sell rebound scenario.
Today's Trading Scenario (LiamTrading)
Scenario 1 – SELL according to the downtrend (priority)
Entry: 4052–4054
SL: 4060
TP: 4030 → 4015 → 3990
Logic: Price rebounds to resistance area + upper boundary of the falling channel, suitable to continue selling according to the trend. Priority when M15 shows rejection candles (pin bar/bearish engulfing) around 405x.
Scenario 2 – BUY at strong support area 398x (catching the rebound)
Entry: 3987–3989
SL: 3980
TP: 3999 → 4014 → 4040 → 4080
Logic: Area 398x is a strong support confluence; only activate when there is a clear price reaction (long lower wick, reversal pattern on M15–H1). This is a counter-trend order, so reduce volume and take partial profits.
Note risks and invalidation
H1 closes above 4060: short-term declining structure weakens, need to pause all sell orders and reassess.
H1 closes below 3980: buy zone fails, risk of further decline to lower areas; at this point, only prioritize selling.
Always keep risk per order at 0.5–1% of the account, reaching about +1R should move SL to breakeven.
Are you leaning towards continuing to sell according to the trend or waiting to catch the bottom at 398x? Leave a comment and follow LiamTrading channel on TradingView for daily XAUUSD updates.
Price consolidate position (Gold expected Target)According to macroeconomic data, there is a 40% chance of rate cuts in December in the meantime, while a 4.4% unemployment rate would slow down the US economy. So gold is expecting a small correction and get reversal upward to till target as posted my ideas.., I am too confident
Gold is stuck in a wide range, ready for a decisive break.Good evening traders, Brian here with a fresh look at gold on the 2-hour chart.
Price is compressing in a broad sideways range, building energy for the next leg – the break from this structure will set the tone for the coming sessions.
Fundamental analysis
The core driver remains the Fed’s December decision. The market is effectively split on whether we see a cut or a delay:
A camp of institutions argues that rising unemployment and softer data could still justify a 25-basis-point cut in December, keeping pressure on the dollar and supporting gold on dips.
Others point out that the Fed is short of clean, up-to-date data and may prefer to wait until next year before committing to an easing cycle.
As a result, pricing for a December cut is roughly “fifty–fifty” and highly sensitive to the next run of labour-market and activity data.
In short: the macro backdrop is undecided, so intraday direction will be driven mainly by levels and liquidity until the next data catalyst hits.
Technical analysis
On the H2 chart, gold is in a broad consolidation after the recent sell-off:
Price is trading inside a descending structure, repeatedly respecting the short-term trendline from the recent high.
The Fibonacci retracement of the latest impulse shows the 0.382 level lining up with a prior fair-value gap and horizontal resistance – this forms a key rejection zone overhead.
Below price, there is a confluence of support where the rising trendline meets a small bullish FVG around 4027–4029, followed by a more important horizontal support band near 3998.
The volume profile highlights a Value Area High (VAH) around 4075–4080, which is likely to act as a reaction zone if price rotates back into it.
Until we break convincingly out of this structure, I treat it as a large accumulation range with a slight downside bias: sellers are still defending lower highs, but buyers are stepping in aggressively at trendline support.
Key levels
Resistance zones:
4080–4085 (VAH / short-term supply)
4135–4145 (Fibonacci 0.382 + FVG + structural resistance)
Support zones:
4027–4029 (trendline + FVG confluence buy area)
3995–4000 (important horizontal support)
3940 region (deeper support if the range finally breaks down)
Trade scenarios
1. Primary long – buy the trendline/FVG confluence
Entry: 4027–4029
Stop: 4023
Targets: 4035 – 4050 – 4068 – 4080
Idea: look for price to react at the rising trendline where it overlaps with the small FVG. A clean rejection candle or shift in intraday order flow from that zone sets up a rotation back towards the VAH and potentially the upper boundary of the range.
2. Break-and-retest short – if the trendline fails
Trigger: clear H1/H2 close below the rising trendline and the 4027 area
Plan: wait for price to retest the underside of the broken trendline / prior support
Entry: on rejection of that retest
Initial targets: 4000, then 3940 if momentum accelerates
This scenario treats any breakdown as a structural shift, using the retest as a lower-risk point to join the move rather than chasing the first leg.
3. Intraday scalp zones
These are discretionary, short-term opportunities for active traders:
Reaction sells: around 4085, and higher up if we spike into the 4135–4145 resistance band. Look for exhaustion or rejection patterns back into the range (potential targets 4060 then 4033).
Reaction buys: into 3998–4000 if we see a liquidity sweep below the current range, with tight stops and quick profit-taking back towards the mid-range.
Gold Weakening Inside Triangle – Bears Eye $3,950 SupportGold is currently consolidating inside a symmetrical triangle formation between 3972 support and 4025 resistance showing reduced volatility and awaiting breakout confirmation. The structure suggests indecision but with a slight bearish bias due to repeated lower highs.
Sell Zone: 3995-4020 (near upper triangle resistance and 0.382-0.5 fib region)
Stop Loss: Above 4046
TP1: 3950 TP2: 3915 TP 3: 3885
⚠️ Current bias: Neutral to bearish unless gold breaks and holds above 4025-4046 zone. Weak low near 3886 may attract liquidity if bearish pressure continues.
Note
Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
Gold Under Pressure: Key Resistance Holds, More Downside LikelyGold is moving inside a descending channel showing clear bearish pressure. Price is struggling to hold above 4050-70 and repeated rejections from the upper trendline confirm sellers are still in control. A clean break below 4025 can open the way toward the deeper liquidity zones around 4010 and 3975. As long as price stays below the falling trendline the bias remains bearish and any small pullback toward 4075-90 will likely act as a selling opportunity. Only a strong breakout above 4100-20 would shift momentum back to buyers.
✅ Bias: Sell below 4060-85 resistance
Sell Zone : 4075–4090
Stop Loss : Above 4120
Take Profit : 4025 - 4010 - 3975
Note
Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
Gold Price AnalysisGold maintained a wide range of fluctuations, with bulls and bears locked in a tug-of-war. The daily chart closed with a doji, with the price hovering around the middle Bollinger Band. The RSI indicator is close to the midline, and the 10-day and 7-day moving averages are converging. The Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour and hourly charts are gradually narrowing. Friday's intraday movement is expected to remain within a wide range, continuing to observe the price action within the 4040-4110 range. The trading strategy remains to sell high and low, focusing on short-term trading.
On the 1-hour chart, gold continues its weak and volatile movement. After last night's data release, it attempted to rise but ultimately failed to break through the 4110 level, encountering resistance and falling back. The short-term trend remains weak, with resistance still present above 4110. Intraday, any rebound encountering resistance at 4110 should be used as an opportunity to sell on rallies.
Key Levels:
First Support: 4062, Second Support: 4040, Third Support: 4016
First Resistance: 4100, Second Resistance: 4118, Third Resistance: 4141
Gold Intraday Trading Strategy:
BUY: 4040-4045, SL: 4030, TP: 4060-4070;
SELL: 4105-4110, SL: 4120, TP: 4090-4080;
More Analysis →
GOLD Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for GOLD.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 4,030.36.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 4,000.32 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
XAU/USD – Bearish Pressure Under Descending Trendline With Key SXAU/USD is currently trading below a descending trendline, indicating ongoing short-term bearish pressure. Buyers attempted multiple pushes to the upside, but each move resulted in lower highs, showing that sellers are still in control.
Price is now moving toward a key horizontal support zone near 4041.73. A clean break below this level could open the door for further downside momentum, while a strong bounce from this zone may trigger a short-term recovery.
Volume activity is also showing slight weakness on bullish candles, which supports the bearish continuation scenario.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: Descending trendline
Support: 4041.73 zone
Bias: Bearish unless price reclaims the trendline
Gold at Make-or-Break Level – High-Probability Short Setup LoadiGold is still trading inside a corrective structure after forming a clear lower low and then consolidating. Price has tapped the mid range zone and is now reacting from a short term supply area. As long as gold stays below 4130–4145 the bearish structure remains intact and the downside continuation toward 4025 → 4000 → 3950 remains the primary expectation. A short setup becomes active once price gives rejection or a small BOS from the current supply zone. The trade becomes invalid if gold breaks and closes above 4150 which would shift structure and open the way for a deeper pullback toward 4175–4200.
Sell Zone : 4130 - 4145
Invalidation : Break & close above 4150
Targets: 4075 → 4025 → 4000 → 3950
Note
Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
XAU/USD Near Breakdown – Bears Eying Liquidity SweepGold remains under pressure after a stronger-than-expected NFP print reduced near-term Fed rate-cut expectations.
The USD stays moderately supported, while weak risk sentiment keeps gold in a cautious, defensive phase.
📊 Technical Snapshot (H1–M30)
Price continues to reject the descending trendline and the supply zone 4,054–4,078.
Lower highs structure intact → bearish momentum remains dominant.
Liquidity pockets sit at 4,013 and especially 3,989, a key downside magnet.
Any pullback toward 4,054 is likely just a retest before continuation lower.
🎯 MMF Intraday Plan
Primary Bias: SELL – follow the trend
Sell 4,054–4,078
SL: 4,090
TP: 4,013 → 3,989 → 3,975
Countertrend BUY (only at deep liquidity):
Buy 3,985–3,990
SL: 3,972
TP: 4,013 → 4,054
⚡️ MMF View
As long as price stays below the trendline and lower-high structure, gold remains in distribution.
A sweep of the 3,99x liquidity zone is highly likely before any meaningful reversal can form.
GOLD → Waiting for NFP... High importance level!FX:XAUUSD is stagnating ahead of the news. The market is in a phase of uncertainty, with long shadows and short candlestick bodies. The key factor will be the US employment data for September.
We have not seen unemployment data for more than seven weeks, which makes this data highly significant. Complete uncertainty. Significant deviations from forecasts could significantly change expectations for Fed rates. The probability of a Fed rate cut in December fell to 33% after the publication of the minutes, in which the regulator expressed concerns about inflation.
The market expects 50K jobs to be created in September, compared to 22K in August.
The unemployment rate is forecast at 4.3%, with wage growth at 3.7% year-on-year.
The further dynamics of gold depend on the NFP data. Weaker indicators may reinforce expectations of Fed policy easing and support price growth, while strong data will put pressure on the metal
Resistance levels: 4082 - 4111
Support levels: 4040, 4006
In the current circumstances, having only one scenario means narrowing your view of the situation as much as possible. The market can be aggressive on news. Weak data could lock the price within the current range (trading between graces). However, a breakout of resistance at 4082 - 4111 and a close above this level could trigger growth. Otherwise, a breakdown and consolidation below 4040 could break the current bullish trend and trigger a sell-off to 3930 (especially against the backdrop of the Fed's weak but hawkish stance).
Best regards, R. Linda!






















