Futures market
Weekly candle analysis of GoldThis might be the ugliest and least readable weekly chart for gold.
This week’s candle is closing with no clear direction — a small candle with both upper and lower wicks.
If you’ve seen the Dollar Index analysis:
– If the dollar strengthens, gold should print a red candle (not a rule, just based on past behavior).
– And if the dollar weakens, we expect gold to move higher.
We have to see whether gold makes a decision in the coming weeks or if we’re going to watch more indecision on the chart.
EUR/USD Running Flat Near CompletionAbout the Asset
Micro EUR/USD Futures on the CME are a smaller version of the standard EUR/USD futures contract. They move exactly like the EUR/USD currency pair, which reflects how strong or weak the Euro is compared to the US Dollar. Because the Dollar sits at the centre of the global financial system, the movements in this pair carry broader meaning. Traders often use EUR/USD as a guide to understand shifts in global liquidity and risk appetite.
Why This Chart Matters
A rising EUR/USD usually means the Dollar is weakening. When the Dollar weakens, financial conditions soften and risk assets often find support. A falling EUR/USD usually means the Dollar is strengthening, which can tighten liquidity and add pressure on equities and other risk-sensitive markets. Tracking this currency pair helps identify where global sentiment may turn next.
Relationship With SPX500
EUR/USD and the SPX500 tend to move in similar directions because both respond to the strength of the Dollar. When the Dollar strengthens, EUR/USD drops and the SPX500 often struggles. When the Dollar weakens, EUR/USD rises and the SPX500 usually recovers. The comparison on this chart shows how both markets have been moving through similar cycles. This helps confirm whether a turning point in EUR/USD is also likely to influence equities.
Elliott Wave Structure
From the early part of the chart, the pair completed a clear five-wave advance, ending near 1.1890. After this high, the market moved into a three-wave A-B-C correction. Wave A ended at 1.1420. Wave B then bounced strongly and briefly moved above the start of Wave A, which is a typical sign of a running flat structure.
Wave C has been weak and overlapping, which fits the behaviour of an ending diagonal. Diagonals often show slowing momentum and choppy swings, and they tend to appear at the end of a corrective pattern. Importantly, Wave C has not broken below the Wave A low at 1.1420. This supports the running flat idea, where the final leg fails to make a new low.
Key Levels
The level at 1.1420 is the invalidation point for the bullish running flat structure. As long as price stays above this level, the market retains the potential to complete Wave C and turn higher. The area around 1.1500 to 1.1520 has already shown some reaction, hinting that the diagonal may be complete or close to completing.
A break above the downward-sloping trendline that has contained the recent decline would be the first sign of strength. A stronger confirmation would come if price moves above the high of the internal Wave (4) within C.
What I Expect
If the running flat interpretation is correct, the market may bounce before testing the 1.1420 low. Ending diagonals are known for turning early, and failed C-waves are common in this pattern. A recovery from the current zone would align with the SPX500 pullback slowing down as well. Both assets would then be in a position to move higher together if the Dollar’s strength eases.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
Gold Analysis and Trading Strategy | November 21-22✅From the 4-hour timeframe, gold rebounded strongly to 4101 (previous high + Bollinger upper band + MA20 resistance) and then quickly fell back to the 4080 area, indicating that selling pressure at higher levels remains very strong.
1️⃣ Moving averages remain bearish
MA5 and MA10 have turned upward slightly, but overall still remain below MA20.
MA20 (around 4155) acts as strong resistance, and the failure to break above shows the rebound is still a weak corrective move, not a trend reversal.
2️⃣ Bollinger Bands remain weak
Price continues to trade near the Bollinger mid-band (around 4071) and has failed multiple times to break the upper band.
The Bollinger Bands have not expanded upward, indicating the market is still in a weak, range-bound structure.
3️⃣ Clear rejection signal
A long upper wick formed at 4101 — a classic “spike and reversal” pattern.
Bears aggressively sold at resistance, forming a clear short-term top.
📌 H4 Conclusion:
Rebound met resistance, the market remains in a weak corrective phase, and no bullish reversal structure has formed.
✅ On the 1-hour timeframe, gold rebounded strongly from 4022 → 4101, but still failed to break through key resistance.
1️⃣ Rebound failure at 4101 → structure shifts to consolidation
After touching 4101, gold quickly pulled back to the 4080 area, showing weakening bullish momentum.
This level corresponds to previous highs + Bollinger upper band resistance, making a breakout difficult.
2️⃣ Moving averages continue to suppress
MA10 / MA20 / MA60 remain in a bearish configuration; the H1 structure has not turned bullish.
Although 4080 provides support, rebound highs are gradually decreasing, signaling fading momentum.
3️⃣ Short-term rebound strength is limited
The most recent rebound only reached MA10 and failed to regain key levels.
This confirms the bounce is a weak correction, not a structural trend change.
📌 H1 Conclusion:
Short-term spike faded, structure remains weak, and rebound is unlikely to break above the 4100–4110 strong resistance zone.
🔴 Resistance Levels
4100–4110 (major resistance zone: previous high + MAs + Bollinger upper band)
4132
4155
🟢 Support Levels
4075–4070
4044–4038
4022
3997
✅If you would like to receive real-time trading signals and professional guidance, you are welcome to join our membership. We provide comprehensive services including account risk management, position control, and strategy adjustments to help you achieve stable and consistent profits in the market🤝
✅ Trading Strategy Suggestions (Key Focus Today)
🔰 Strategy 1: Sell the Rebound (Primary Strategy)
If gold rebounds to 4095–4105 and faces rejection:
✔️ Light short positions
❌ Stop-loss: 4118 (exit immediately if price breaks above 4110)
🎯 Targets: 4075 / 4055 / 4040
👉 Reason: 4100–4110 is extremely strong resistance with low probability of a breakout.
🔰 Strategy 2: Short After a Failed Breakout
If price makes a false breakout above 4110 but fails to hold:
✔️ Enter short immediately
🎯 Same targets as above
⚠️ A long upper wick is a bearish signal.
🔰 Strategy 3: Trend-Following Short on Breakdown
If gold breaks 4038–4044:
✔️ Follow with breakout shorts
🎯 Targets: 4022 / 4008 / 3997
👉 This zone is the key dividing line; breaking it gives full control to the bears.
🔥Trading Reminder: Trading strategies are time-sensitive, and market conditions can change rapidly. Please adjust your trading plan based on real-time market conditions.
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
After a very clean week so far, today wasn't really worth getting involved in. A lot of choppy price action and accumulation, no clear direction even though our hot spots were all hit.
We have a lower high which is concerning but there is a strong level of support here at the 4050-55 level. Tomorrow's key level of resistance stands at 4075 which needs to break, as well as the red box defence in which the price has played for most of this week. It looks like the breakout will come in the sessions ahead. For that reason, we'll wait for the break either side otherwise we'll just call it a successful week here.
Levels to watch, 4040 support on the undercut low, while 4070-75 for the spikes needs force to break open.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Gold 15m support heading towards 4110Main Bias : Bullish (Buy) – The overall trend and recent price action suggest buyers are stepping in. Price recently tested a strong support zone and showed a clear reaction, indicating potential upward movement.
Entry Zone : Around 4,078 – 4,081 – This is a retest of a previous resistance now turned support (breaker level). Entering here gives a favorable risk-to-reward setup.
Stop Loss (SL) : 4,068 – 4,070 – Placed just below the support to protect against a deeper pullback.
Target (TP): 4,110 – 4,120 – The next major resistance area where price could face selling pressure.
Confluences:
Price bounced cleanly from the breaker support level
Candlestick reaction shows buyers are stepping in
Momentum aligns with the bullish bias, confirming the potential move upward
Summary : Look for a buy around 4,078 – 4,081, aiming for 4,110 – 4,120, with a stop around 4,068 – 4,070. The setup is supported by strong support (breaker) and confirming bullish price action, giving a clear and manageable trade plan.
This is not financial advice.
Why I Think Gold will Sell...Technical Analysis Hey Rich Friends,
Happy Sunday. I know Gold was on a crazy bull run, we all know what comes up, must come down. It may not happen today, but it will happen soon so I will be using pending orders (sell stops) on this trade. This is only my technical analysis, so please check the news and cross-reference any indicators you have on your chart.
I follow the same process every time and I buy or sell based on which side has the most confirmations. Very systematic and unemotional. Here is what I am looking at:
- The candles have been rejected the 4H high since Friday.
- The red candles are getting bigger and the blue candles are getting small, signaling a bearish reversal.
- There has been a break of structure and retest of the new support on 4H.
- The stochastic is facing down, the orange line is on top and both lines have crossed below 80.
- There are all strong bearish confirmations for me which is why I decided to set sell stops in increments on 500 pips.
Additional Information:
- You can wait for stronger sell signals on the Daily or 1H time frame.
- Wait for current 4H candle to close to confirm selling trend.
- Use previous highs as stop losses and previous lows as sell stops and TPs.
Great luck if you decide to take this trade. Let me know your thoughts on this ideas in the comments.
Peace and Profits,
Cha
Final session of excellent weekAs discussed throughout this week's commentary: 'As discussed throughout my Friday's session commentary: 'Technical analysis: Gold is showing increasing Selling presence on Weekly (#1W) chart as it is virtually unchanged (the (#1W) candle at # +1.86% currently) as Price-action is on parabolic downtrend within July’s High’s and October Low’s. This has effectively constructed an series of red Daily chart's candles hence the Bearish values on almost all charts which was an ideal Selling opportunity for Short-term Traders however Gold is struggling to stage more serious decline below #4,000.80 benchmark which I mentioned many times as possible 'floor'. Personally I remain on Medium-term Buying set-up as Daily and Weekly chart (#1W) remains heavily Bullish indicating that the latest decline was simply another accumulation and distribution phase of the recently started renewed Bull market. However the Price-action just touched the Weekly chart’s (#1W) #4,052.80 benchmark for the first time since recent upswing which was essentially the start of the parabolic rise. As a result when the #4,100.80 breaks, the next are of my importance is new ATH's level before possible Stabilization zone where Medium and Long-term Sellers will re-appear. If that happens then I will add to my portfolio giving a horizon of #20 - #30 session horizon until Gold hit #4,300.80 benchmark. However it is important to mention that if DX continues the spiral downtrend and Gold re-captures (confirmation by market closing) Resistance zone, Gold can correct #4,100.80 today.
My position: I have placed my Buys on #4,032.80 - #4,042.80 Long-term and my Targets are #4,100.80 - #4,127.80 zones. I maintain my #5,100.80 Long-term Target as these declines are excellent Buying opportunities / fuel for more up.'
My position: I have closed first batch of my Buying orders on #4,102.80 (#3 Buying orders engaged on #4,032.80 - #4,035.80) delivering spectacular Profits and I have Traded the #4,062.80 - #4,082.80 belt throughout yesterday's session (aggressive Scalp orders). As I have mentioned many times throughout my recent comments, I do expect #4,000.80 benchmark to pose as an Ultimate 'floor' and inside yesterday's session strong decline towards #4,000.80 benchmark. I have engaged set of Buying orders on #4,010.80 and closed all the way on #4,052.80 benchmark delivering excellent Profits. Gold holds some Bearish bias however as long as #4,000.80 benchmark is posing as an strong configuration, I will continue Buying Gold.'
My position: Yet another week has gone in spectacular manner as I was continuously waiting Gold to deliver Ultimate Low's and Buy there (did most of my Buys within #4,000.80 - #4,032.80 Ultimate Bottom) as #4,000.80 remains 'floor' as I mentioned many times throughout my remarks. Well done for Traders who followed my calls and are Buying Gold aggressively on each more serious dip, well done! (didn't had time to answer to all). Next week I will provide more Intra-day calls, enjoy the Profits and have a great weekend!
Final session of excellent weekAs discussed throughout this week's commentary: 'As discussed throughout my Friday's session commentary: 'Technical analysis: Gold is showing increasing Selling presence on Weekly (#1W) chart as it is virtually unchanged (the (#1W) candle at # +1.86% currently) as Price-action is on parabolic downtrend within July’s High’s and October Low’s. This has effectively constructed an series of red Daily chart's candles hence the Bearish values on almost all charts which was an ideal Selling opportunity for Short-term Traders however Gold is struggling to stage more serious decline below #4,000.80 benchmark which I mentioned many times as possible 'floor'. Personally I remain on Medium-term Buying set-up as Daily and Weekly chart (#1W) remains heavily Bullish indicating that the latest decline was simply another accumulation and distribution phase of the recently started renewed Bull market. However the Price-action just touched the Weekly chart’s (#1W) #4,052.80 benchmark for the first time since recent upswing which was essentially the start of the parabolic rise. As a result when the #4,100.80 breaks, the next are of my importance is new ATH's level before possible Stabilization zone where Medium and Long-term Sellers will re-appear. If that happens then I will add to my portfolio giving a horizon of #20 - #30 session horizon until Gold hit #4,300.80 benchmark. However it is important to mention that if DX continues the spiral downtrend and Gold re-captures (confirmation by market closing) Resistance zone, Gold can correct #4,100.80 today.
My position: I have placed my Buys on #4,032.80 - #4,042.80 Long-term and my Targets are #4,100.80 - #4,127.80 zones. I maintain my #5,100.80 Long-term Target as these declines are excellent Buying opportunities / fuel for more up.'
My position: I have closed first batch of my Buying orders on #4,102.80 (#3 Buying orders engaged on #4,032.80 - #4,035.80) delivering spectacular Profits and I have Traded the #4,062.80 - #4,082.80 belt throughout yesterday's session (aggressive Scalp orders). As I have mentioned many times throughout my recent comments, I do expect #4,000.80 benchmark to pose as an Ultimate 'floor' and inside yesterday's session strong decline towards #4,000.80 benchmark. I have engaged set of Buying orders on #4,010.80 and closed all the way on #4,052.80 benchmark delivering excellent Profits. Gold holds some Bearish bias however as long as #4,000.80 benchmark is posing as an strong configuration, I will continue Buying Gold.'
My position: Yet another week has gone in spectacular manner as I was continuously waiting Gold to deliver Ultimate Low's and Buy there (did most of my Buys within #4,000.80 - #4,032.80 Ultimate Bottom) as #4,000.80 remains 'floor' as I mentioned many times throughout my remarks. Well done for Traders who followed my calls and are Buying Gold aggressively on each more serious dip, well done! (didn't had time to answer to all). Next week I will provide more Intra-day calls, enjoy the Profits and have a great weekend!
Gold Reversal heading towards 4140Gold Re- Buy Opportunity
Entry zone 4050-55 stopout below 4045
Targets : 40_70_80_90_4100 extends
Price Got rejected to break below 4030s Demand Zone , if Failed to closes above 4070 Reaccumulation and if brokes through the 4070 s
Targeting 4100
Demand + fvg tap near 4025 , plus Trendline liquidity resting above and Equal highs At 4060
This is not a financial advice , For educational purposes
GOLD DAILY CHART ROUTE MAPHey everyone,
Here’s the Daily Chart idea we’ve been tracking. The swing move into 4145 has now produced a candle body close above that level, which keeps the long term gap open toward 4325. We also saw a rejection with a candle body close below 4145, leaving 3165 open beneath. However, note that this rejection touched the channel half line, which based on our uniquely drawn goldturn channel typically provides strong support.
We’re seeing that support play out now with a bounce off the half-line.
At the moment, our key levels are:
Primary support: Channel half-line
Secondary support: 3961
Primary resistance: 4145
Long range gap target: 4325, which becomes more significant if we see the EMA5 cross and hold above 4145.
We’ll keep everyone updated as the week progresses.
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX















