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My XAUUSD Breakdown — Why I’m Still Bullish + Scaling In Plan🧠 Macro Flow & Structural Narrative The broader narrative on XAUUSD has transitioned from a distribution phase into early accumulation. The prior bearish leg completed with a final liquidity purge, sweeping the downside inefficiencies before price delivered a decisive break in the M15 and H1 bearish structures. The key shift occurred when we printed a new H1 higher low, created through displacement rather than simple corrective action. That confirms bullish orderflow re-entering the market and signals that smart money is accumulating positions rather than distributing. This is the foundation of my bullish bias. 🏛️ Smart Money Orderflow Outlook Current orderflow shows: M15 bearish trendlines violated with displacement Clean inefficiencies (FVGs) created on the move up The market rebalancing downward into those inefficiencies Clear areas where institutional orders previously entered (demand & mitigation blocks) This tells me the downside movement right now isn’t distribution — it’s rebalancing, not reversing. Smart money is reloading. 📉 Liquidity Architecture Below Current Price Below current price, we have multiple layers of liquidity: Equal lows Sell-side resting beneath the small intraday swing points An unmitigated M15 FVG A well-defined M15 demand zone that initiated the displacement and BOS This entire region forms a high-probability accumulation pocket, and the algorithm often seeks to re-balance into this area before resuming macro direction. That zone is exactly where I’m preparing to add another long position. 📈 Why I’m Already Long & Why I’m Willing to Scale In I am currently holding two open long positions, both taken on the confirmation of the structural shift and the initial institutional push upward. My plan is to scale into a third long if: Price taps into the M15 demand / FVG region Sell-side liquidity is taken cleanly The zone is respected with bullish reaction (micro BOS or displacement) This is consistent with the liquidity → mitigation → displacement model. In simple terms: I want the algorithm to clean the sell-side, mitigate orders, and then show its hand. Once I see that, I’m adding. 🎯 Upside Targets & Why They Matter The upside target area around 4,108–4,120 aligns with: Untapped buy-side liquidity Prior distribution range highs A clean supply inefficiency above The next H1 key level where smart money previously sold from This is where I expect the next significant transfer of risk to occur. 📌 Summary of My Institutional Thesis We have a confirmed shift in H1 & M15 structure. Price is in rebalancing mode, not trend continuation down. Liquidity below is engineered to be taken before expansion upward. I’m already holding two long positions from earlier confirmations. If price taps into the demand zone I’ve marked—and respects it— I will scale in with another buy. Final targets sit higher in the prior distribution range. This is a classic model of accumulation → BOS → retrace into demand → expansion.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by fxbeckz
XAUUSD SIGNAL BASED BY MSNR⭐ Advanced Market Signal Description This signal is built on a precision-based trading model that evaluates trend direction, liquidity flow, and real-time volatility conditions. The setup highlights a moment where market momentum aligns with structural confirmation, creating a strategic opportunity for an optimized entry. The analysis incorporates a blend of market structure shifts, reaction zones, and momentum indicators to filter out low-quality setups. The result is a refined signal designed for traders who value accuracy, clarity, and disciplined execution. 📌 Signal Components Entry Point: Selected after confirming directional bias and price stability Stop-Loss (SL): Placed at a clean invalidation area to minimize exposure Take-Profit (TP): Calculated from structural targets, liquidity levels, and recent volatility Setup Breakdown: A short explanation outlining the key technical reasons for the trade Market Outlook: Expected continuation or reversal scenarios based on current price behavior ⚠️ Disclaimer This signal is for analytical and educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Market conditions can shift quickly, so always monitor the trade and apply proper risk management.⭐ Advanced Market Signal Description This signal is built on a precision-based trading model that evaluates trend direction, liquidity flow, and real-time volatility conditions. The setup highlights a moment where market momentum aligns with structural confirmation, creating a strategic opportunity for an optimized entry. The analysis incorporates a blend of market structure shifts, reaction zones, and momentum indicators to filter out low-quality setups. The result is a refined signal designed for traders who value accuracy, clarity, and disciplined execution. 📌 Signal Components Entry Point: Selected after confirming directional bias and price stability Stop-Loss (SL): Placed at a clean invalidation area to minimize exposure Take-Profit (TP): Calculated from structural targets, liquidity levels, and recent volatility Setup Breakdown: A short explanation outlining the key technical reasons for the trade Market Outlook: Expected continuation or reversal scenarios based on current price behavior ⚠️ Disclaimer This signal is for analytical and educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Market conditions can shift quickly, so always monitor the trade and apply proper risk management.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by aleksandardiev
Dollar at a Turning Point: Base Building for a Breakout We believe a longer-term base is developing for the US dollar. At present, the market has reached a key level of resistance — the same level we saw at the end of 2023. While near-term consolidation is possible, the broader picture suggests strength. Key points: - The 200-day moving average has been eroded, with three closes above it. - The monthly chart shows the dollar bouncing off a very long-term uptrend dating back to 2011. - This structure points to a positive long-term outlook, with dips offering potential buying opportunities. - The base suggests upside toward approximately 104. Disclaimer: This post reflects market observations for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Please conduct your own research or consult a licensed professional before making trading or investment decisions.
ICEUS:DX1!Long
by The_STA
Negative factors continue to dominate the short-term trend. Negative factors dominate, suppressing the upward trend of gold prices. Diminished expectations of interest rate cuts + Support from the US dollar: Currently, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December is only 10%, and Morgan Stanley has even completely abandoned this expectation. As an interest-free asset, the fading expectations of interest rate cuts will significantly reduce the attractiveness of gold. At the same time, the US dollar index has formed a solid support at 100.3, and gold and the US dollar usually have a negative correlation. The strength of the US dollar will continue to put pressure on gold prices, which is the core factor suppressing the gold price next Monday. -Decline in geopolitical risk demand: Recent cease-fire negotiations between Palestine and Israel have continued, and the conflict in Ukraine has also sent out signals of cooling. Previously, the risk-averse funds that bought gold due to concerns over geopolitical conflicts are gradually withdrawing. The decline in risk-averse demand has deprived gold of an important upward momentum. This trend is likely to continue until next Monday, further suppressing the gold price. -Weak technical signals: On November 21, the international gold price has fallen below the key support level of 4050 US dollars, and is at the end of the triangular convergence range, showing a trend of continuously lower highs. The weak technical pattern will affect investor sentiment. Short-term there will be few large-scale buy orders to support the gold price, and even some investors may prematurely sell for risk aversion, further intensifying the downward pressure on the gold price. Next week's gold strategy analysis sell：4075-4065 tp:4055-4035-4000 sl:4085
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Thorne-
Supply sideThe situation of excess has become a definite trend, with weak supporting force - OPEC + increased production, coupled with the conclusion of supply surplus, Securities Times e-Company: The OPEC report in November changed the global oil situation from healthy to surplus. Currently, the world's oil production exceeds demand by 500,000 barrels per day, while a month ago it was estimated to be a shortage of 400,000 barrels. Although OPEC + decided to suspend production increase in the first quarter of 2026, it will still increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, and the continuous rounds of production increase in the past have continuously accumulated market supply pressure. At the same time, the compensation for production cuts by some oil-producing countries can slightly offset the impact of production increase, but it is difficult to change the overall surplus situation. - Non-OPEC oil-producing countries have high production: The U.S. crude oil production remains at a high level, with the production reaching 13.862 million barrels per day in the week of November 7th. Although it has slightly declined later, it still remains at a historical high level. EIA also raised the 2026 U.S. crude oil production by 200,000 barrels per day to 13.5 million barrels per day. Its continuous production increase further intensifies the expectation of global supply surplus. Next week's crude oil strategy analysis sell：58-58.5 tp:57.5-57 sl:59.5
TVC:USOILShort
by Thorne-
Gold Analysis for next week.The market continues to trade within a large symmetrical triangle, defined by the two red converging trendlines. This tightening structure reflects a period of consolidation following the strong rally seen from late August into October. Price action is currently holding above the ascending lower trendline, showing buyers are still defending higher lows. At the same time, attempts to break above the upper descending trendline have repeatedly failed, keeping momentum neutral and compressing volatility. Key Levels to Note Support Zones: 4,002 – 3,974: A cluster of support formed around the 0.618 and 0.5 Fibonacci retracement levels. 3,937: Mid-range support. 3,882: Major downside support if the triangle breaks bearish. Resistance Zones: 4,133 – 4,249: Heavy resistance area aligned with the upper trendline and multiple fib levels. A breakout above this zone would signal a shift in momentum. Market Structure Price is coiling between higher lows and lower highs, a classic sign of energy building before a strong directional move. As we move closer to December, the triangle apex approaches, suggesting a breakout is likely soon. What to Watch Next Bullish scenario: A clear breakout above 4,200–4,250 could trigger a continuation toward 4,381, with further potential to revisit or exceed the prior highs. Bearish scenario: A breakdown below the ascending trendline and 4,000 may open the door toward 3,937, and deeper into the 3,882 zone. Overall, the chart shows a compression phase, and the next decisive move out of the red triangle structure will likely determine the medium-term direction.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSD
by ProtraderFaisal
Gold Teprature is almost 1064 Digrees 23 Nov 2025Gold Teprature is almost 1064 Digrees 23 Nov 2025 Hemmm The Last week of november, nov,dec will be voltile market , yearly Closing. Struggling Struggling Struggling Fight bitween bullish fvg day and th ebearish fvg that is most recent, i will go with the most recent fvg, the respected candle farmed inside Bearish FVG, nearest target is is previus Swing low, Previus Week Close Below Equalibrium. potancial targets is PWL. Weekly Swing Low, and more. Probalities, allah o aalam
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by Asif_Brain_Waves
How will gold break out of its current predicament next week? news： On Friday, Williams, president of the New York Fed and one of the Fed's "Big Three," made a decisive statement, both setting the tone and saving the market from crisis. As a key figure sharing power with Powell and Jefferson, he bluntly stated that interest rates are "very likely to be adjusted further in the near future." Of course, the hawks didn't back down either. Boston Fed President Collins was worried about inflation, while Dallas Fed President Logan was even tougher, questioning whether they should have voted on the previous two rate cuts, although Logan doesn't have voting rights this year. technology： Regarding the Golden Week holiday, the gold market experienced range-bound trading over the past week. The highest price reached was $4132, and the lowest was $4022, with an overall fluctuation range of approximately $110. However, for most of the week, gold prices fluctuated repeatedly within the $4040-$4110 range, with the fluctuation range narrowing to around $70. Currently, after touching $4240, gold prices are temporarily in a second downward correction phase, and judging from the timeframe, this correction is not yet fully over. However, gold prices have twice found support and rebounded near the $4000 level, indicating that bulls have the potential for a short-term counterattack at this level. Looking at the 1-hour chart, the short-term resistance level to watch is around 4110, while the support level is around 4020. Technically, the trend is more inclined towards a correction followed by an upward move. I will provide specific trading strategies in the channel, so please pay close attention. Strategy Signals： buy：4040-4035，SL：4025，TP：4080,4100
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TheodoreSilas
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