XAGUSD _ 4h
The indicators are showing that the chart can potentially push the price higher — at least up to the upper boundary.
The previous leg was bullish, so we can say that eventually the price may break out to the upside and create a new high.
The price must not drop to the lower floor again; if it breaks below that level, the analysis becomes invalid.
Futures market
Gold softens after Fed minutes as smokestacks cap every rally Is there any way we can get a December rate cut now?
Gold has softened after the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's last interest rate decision.
The minutes show there’s no unified push toward cutting, which could make a December move unlikely.
Several Federal Reserve officials supported lowering rates in October, but others preferred keeping policy unchanged, and some pushed back firmly against easing.
Technically, XAUUSD continues to form smokestacks, printing repeated double-top structures. The price is now hovering around 4,070, sitting under possible short-term resistance at 4,150. XAUUSD losing the 50-day MA further could shift bias more decisively lower.
ES 4h TF, LongAlright, here’s the call. I’m expecting a retracement sooner or later.
On the 1-hour timeframe, the ideal day-trading entry has already passed, so for now, I’m anticipating the price to tap or slightly extend beyond the blue line before pulling back toward one of the yellow zones.
Now, this is where it gets interesting. Both yellow zones offer potential long setups:
The first zone aligns with the VWAP, which often acts as strong dynamic support.
The second zone sits just below a price gap, meaning the market might fill that imbalance before continuing higher.
As long as the fundamentals remain stable, I’ll be watching for confirmation to go long from either of those two areas.
If I decide to take this trade, I’ll update and specify the exact entry point — but for now, patience is key. Let’s wait for that retracement first.
4161 OR 3928 ?By examining the gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, you can see that the price touched the 4112 range exactly according to our previous analysis, and even advanced to 4132, and in the same range, it faced heavy selling pressure and fell to 4055. Currently, gold is trading at channel 4072. If it can consolidate itself above the important range of 4046 until the last working hours of the day, we can expect another growth to 4132 and even 4161. Scenario 2 = If it can break the resistance of 4046 and its bottom is consolidated, we can expect a fall to 4002 and even 3928.
با بررسی چارت طلا در تایم فریم 4 ساعته مشاهده میکنید که قیمت دقیقا طبق تحلیل قبلی ما محدوده 4112 رو لمس کرد و حتی تا 4132 پیش رفت و در همان محدوده با فشار فروش سنگینی مواجه شد و تا 4055 ریزش کرد .
درحال حاضر طلا در کانال 4072 درحال معامله می باشد.
اگه بتونه خودشو تا آخرین ساعات کاری روز بالای محدوده مهم 4046 تثبیت کنه میتونیم انتظار رشد دوباره تا 4132 و حتی 4161 داشته باشیم.
سناریو دوم = اگه بتونه مقاومت 4046 رو بشکنه و زیره اون تثبیت بشه انتظار ریزش تا 4002 وحتی 3928 ام میتونیم ازش داشته باشیم.
ریسک فری فراموش نشه دوستان.
WTI OIL Is it possible to crash at $30.00?WTI Oil (USOIL) has been declining for 3 straight months (current red 1M candle is the 4th one) since the June 2025 rejection on the 1W MA100 (red trend-line). That has been the last rejection of a series of Lower Highs rejections on the 1W MA100 in the past 2 years.
On the much longer-term scale, this is the aftermath of the March 2022 market Top, made as a direct result of the Ukraine - Russia war. On a 17-year horizon, that was the 2nd Lower High of the multi-year Channel Down that WTI has been trading in since the July 2008 Top of the Housing Crisis.
As you can see, there is a high degree of symmetry on this pattern with Lower Lows in particular (market bottoms) getting formed around every 5-6 years. The use of the Time Cycles can fairly accurately project this. The next one is estimated to be towards the end of 2026, which matches perfectly the projected Bear Cycle bottom on the stock markets.
Based on this model, we may very well see WTI drop to as low as $30.00. A fairly solid bottom buy indicator would be when (if) the 1M RSI breaks below its 30.00 (oversold) barrier.
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Natural Gas Attempts to Return to the Year’s Highest LevelsSince October 17, natural gas has maintained a steady bullish bias, posting an appreciation of nearly 43%, which has fueled sustained buying pressure on prices. This upward movement has been supported by increasing inventory levels in countries such as China, Japan, and South Korea, which have ramped up purchases ahead of the winter season and diversified suppliers amid potential sanctions involving Russia. If this pace of consistent buying continues in the coming weeks, the current bullish pressure could become even more significant in natural gas price movements over the next few sessions.
Strong Uptrend
In recent weeks, buying momentum has remained persistent, with the average upward impulses in natural gas prices forming a solid uptrend, bringing the market closer to the yearly highs near $4.9. So far, the short-term pullbacks have not been strong enough to break this aggressive bullish trendline. As long as there is no consistent selling pressure, the current uptrend is likely to remain dominant in the short term.
RSI
The RSI line remains above the 50 level, indicating that buying momentum continues to drive price movements. However, the indicator is now approaching the 70 level, suggesting a potential overbought signal. This may imply that, given the speed of the recent rally, the market could experience short-term pullbacks as this imbalance in buying pressure persists.
TRIX
Overall, the TRIX indicator remains above the neutral level, showing a consistent upward slope. This confirms that the long-term trend remains bullish, suggesting that buying pressure may continue to dominate natural gas price action in the coming sessions.
Key Levels to Watch:
$4.80 – Resistance: Represents the recent high zone. A breakout above this level could trigger a more aggressive uptrend in the following sessions.
$4.46 – Intermediate Support: Marks the most recent retracement area, which could serve as a temporary barrier against short-term downward corrections.
$3.84 – Key Support: This is the most relevant retracement level of recent weeks. If prices drop to this zone, it could signal an emerging bearish bias, putting the current bullish trendlines at risk.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
Once again, perfectly capturing gold trading opportunitiesIn yesterday's gold strategy, we emphasized the rebound correction at the 4000 level and the short position at 4080, and the market action has fully materialized! Congratulations to those who followed our advice.Gold is currently dominated by bears, and the overall structure remains weak. Short-term support levels to watch are the 4040-4030 area and strong support around 4000. Resistance remains concentrated in the 4080-4100 area. If the price rebounds to this area and fails to break through, short positions can still be considered. In short, the core logic for today remains unchanged: a weak, downward-trending market. Trading should focus on the aforementioned support and resistance levels, patiently waiting and positioning. The slower pace of the market movement means a longer trading cycle, thus requiring more patience in executing each trade. Until the trend changes, our overall strategy remains to primarily short at higher levels during rebounds, supplemented by buying on dips, proceeding steadily and following the trend.















