ASML Just Sent a Signal to India--and the Chip World Should Pay Attention

ASML ASML may be laying early groundwork for a strategic pivot toward India, as rising geopolitical risk and tightening export controls reshape the global chip supply map. Speaking at the Semicon India summit in New Delhi, CEO Christophe Fouquet said the Dutch lithography giant is "dedicated to supporting India's ambition," signaling interest in building deeper ties with the country's nascent chip industry. While ASML declined to offer specifics on timing or machine sales, the message was unmistakable: India's $8.6 billion push for domestic semiconductor capacity has caught the attention of the world's most critical chip-gear supplier.

Prime Minister Modi's semiconductor agenda has become one of the highest-profile industrial policy plays in Asia, catalyzed in part by a backlash to US tariffs and a broader global race for chip self-sufficiency. India is expected to focus first on less advanced nodes, but projects are already movingMicron is building a $3 billion packaging facility, while Tata Group is partnering with Taiwan's Powerchip on an $11 billion fab. ASML's tools are unlikely to see immediate deployment, but the company framed India's trajectory as one that could scale rapidly, especially as advanced-node demand expands beyond AI-heavy use cases. Internal projections from ASML put India's semiconductor market at $55 billion by 2026, with potential to hit $100 billion by 2030.

The backdrop here is ASML's exposure to China, which accounted for 27% of its net system sales last quarter despite a growing list of US-led export curbs. The company has never sold its top-tier EUV tools to Beijing, and the widening trade crackdown has only tightened those screws. That pressure is bleeding into ASML's forward guidance: growth expectations beyond 2025 have softened, according to recent commentary. India, then, offers something Beijing no longer doesa clean runway. Whether that turns into real revenue will hinge not just on policy momentum, but on India's ability to move from promise to production. ASML, for now, is watchingand waiting.