BTC Key Support Levels (True Market Mean, Realized Price, MVRV)

Bitcoin Key Onchain Support Levels + Moving Averages

This indicator combines critical Bitcoin on-chain metrics with traditional technical analysis to identify key support levels and price trends. It's designed to help traders and investors understand Bitcoin's fundamental value zones and market positioning.

Key Metrics Included:
On-Chain Support Levels:

1. True Market Mean (Active Coins) - Blue Line
   
   Calculates investor capital (Realized Cap minus Thermocap) divided by active supply (coins moved in last year)
   Represents the average cost basis of active market participants
   Historically acts as strong support during bull markets
   
   
   
2. True Market Mean (Free Float) - Green Line
   
   Same investor capital calculation but divided by free float supply
   Provides a more conservative support estimate
   Useful for identifying extreme value zones
   
   
   
3. Realized Price - Purple Line
   
   The average price at which all bitcoins last moved on-chain
   Represents the aggregate cost basis of all Bitcoin holders
   Historical major support level during bear markets
   
   
   
4. Delta Realized Price - Red Line
   
   Realized Price minus its all-time average
   Helps identify when Bitcoin is trading below or above its historical average cost basis
   Useful for spotting macro trend shifts
   
   
   
5. MVRV 0sd (Mean MVRV) - Yellow Line
   
   Price level where Market Value equals the historical average MVRV ratio times Realized Value
   Represents "fair value" based on Bitcoin's historical valuation patterns
   Strong dynamic support/resistance level
   

Traditional Moving Averages:

1. 50 Day SMA - White Dotted Line
   
   Short-term trend indicator
   Common entry/exit signal for swing traders
   
   
   
2. 200 Day SMA - White Dashed Line
   
   Long-term trend indicator
   Classic bull/bear market dividing line
   
   
   
3. 50 Week SMA - Orange Dotted Line
   
   Medium-term trend on weekly timeframe
   Historically strong support in bull markets, some traders use as dividing line between bull and bear markets
   
   
   
4. 200 Week SMA - Orange Dashed Line
   
   Long-term weekly trend
   Very rarely breached; considered ultimate bottom indicator representing the deepest possible value for long term investors
   

How to Use This Indicator:
For Long-Term Investors:

• Look for price approaching the Red (Delta Realized Price) or Purple (Realized Price) lines during corrections as potential accumulation zones
  
• The 200 Week SMA (orange dashed) has historically marked cycle bottoms
  
• When price is above the Blue line (True Market Mean - Active), the bull market is typically healthy
  

For Traders:

• Use the moving averages for trend confirmation and entry/exit signals
  
• The Yellow line (MVRV 0sd) often acts as dynamic support/resistance
  
• Watch for price interactions with the Blue line during consolidations
  
• Cross-referencing on-chain levels with moving averages provides high-probability trade setups
  

Market Cycle Context:

• Bull Market: Price typically stays above the Yellow and Blue lines
  
• Bear Market: Price often trades between Purple (Realized Price) and Red (Delta Realized Price)
  
• Extreme Value: Price near or below Red line and 200 Week SMA
  
• Overheated: Price significantly above all on-chain metrics
  

Technical Notes:
This indicator uses real Bitcoin on-chain data including:

Realized Cap from CoinMetrics
Supply and active supply metrics from Glassnode
Block mining data and transaction fees
Thermocap calculation (cumulative security spend)

All calculations are performed on daily data and maintain consistency across different chart timeframes. The on-chain metrics provide fundamental value floors that complement traditional technical analysis.

Best Practices:

• Use on logarithmic scale for better visualization across Bitcoin's entire price history
  
• Most effective on daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes
  
• Combine with volume analysis and other indicators for confirmation
  
• On-chain levels are slow-moving; don't expect daily precision
  
• Historical support levels are not guarantees of future performance