Seasonality PH (Full History)

📊 Description
The "Seasonality PH (Full History)" indicator provides an in-depth analysis of the seasonal tendencies of a selected symbol by utilizing all available historical data. The indicator aggregates historical movements (Long/Short) and calculates the Expected Value (EV) for each period (Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly), offering a more robust view of the actual average gain/loss. The visualization is based on the Long/Short bar ratio (Bias) within the given period, where the column's height reflects the strength of the prevailing direction, and the direction (up/down) indicates the Long/Short bias. The indicator also includes a table with key statistics, including a prediction for the next 3 periods.

⚙️ Settings (Inputs)

Analysis

• Statistics Table: Display the summary table in the corner of the chart with key statistics.
  
• Performance Analysis: Display the main seasonal performance visualization as a histogram.
  
• Analysis Period: Select the period for analysis: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, or Quarterly.
  
• Seasonal Pivots: Displays the days when the asset tends to make annual seasonal highs/lows.
  
• Pivot Strength: The number of surrounding bars required to confirm a seasonal pivot (higher value = stronger pivot).
  

Data Range

• The indicator automatically utilizes all available history for the given instrument.
  

Extras

• Highlight Current Trading Day: Highlights the current period and extends its horizontal line to the right.
  
• Performance Labels: Displays labels on the columns. They include the % of the prevailing direction and the Expected Value (EV) in % for the period.
  
• Show S/L Ratio in Table: Displays the Short/Long ratio in the table.
  
• Track Changes: Connects the ends of the columns with a line to show the continuous change in Seasonal Bias.
  

Indexing

• Anchor to Beginning of Year: Anchors all seasonal drawings to the first trading day of the current year.
  
• Manual Offset: Enables manual offset to overlay seasonality onto previous years.
  
• Offset Value: The offset value in number of bars (e.g., 252 bars/year).
  

Dividers

• Month / Quarter: Enables visual separation of months or quarters in the Performance Analysis (with style and color selection).
  

Style

• Settings for colors and line thickness for the main visualizations. Includes colors for Performance (Long/Short), Seasonal Pivots, and Dividers.
  

Conditional Coloring

• Enable Conditional Bias Coloring: Activates conditional coloring of the columns.
  
• Bias % Threshold (0-100): The minimum percentage strength of the prevailing direction (e.g., 70%) that activates the solid color.
  
• High Long Bias Color / High Short Bias Color: Colors for periods with strong Long/Short bias.
  

Table

• Settings for the position, colors, and text size of the statistics table.
  

💡 Concepts and Interpretation

Seasonal Analysis and Bias

• Visualization: The main histogram shows the strength of the prevailing direction (Bias), not the average percentage change.
  
• Column Height: Normalized by the Long/Short bar ratio. A taller column means a stronger Long or Short bias.
  
• Column Direction: Up for Long Bias, Down for Short Bias.
  
• Conditional Coloring: If the Long/Short ratio exceeds the set Bias % Threshold, the column fills with a solid color to emphasize a strong bias.
  

Expected Value (EV)

• Definition: EV is a weighted average of the seasonal movement, considering both the probability of the movement (Long/Short ratio) and the average magnitude of these movements.
  
• Usage: This value represents the historical profit/loss expectation for the given period. It is displayed in the Performance Labels and in the table as Average % Change.
  

Performance Labels

• Top Number (%): The percentage of the prevailing direction (e.g., 75.00% Long).
  
• Bottom Number (%): The Expected Value (EV) for the period in percent.
  

Statistics Table

• Data Collected: The number of years from which data has been collected.
  
• Average % Change: The Expected Value (EV) for the current period.
  
• Current % Change: The actual percentage change of the current, yet-to-be-closed, period.
  
• Prediction Next 3: The average Expected Value (EV) for the next 3 periods (a quick seasonal outlook).
  

⚠️ Important Note

• Timeframe: For correct aggregation and accurate results, the chart must be set to the Daily (D) timeframe.