Dip Hunter [BackQuant]Dip Hunter
What this tool does in plain language
Dip Hunter is a pullback detector designed to find high quality buy-the-dip opportunities inside healthy trends and to avoid random knife catches. It watches for a quick drop from a recent high, checks that the drop happened with meaningful participation and volatility, verifies short-term weakness inside a larger uptrend, then scores the setup and paints the chart so you can act with confidence. It also draws clean entry lines, provides a meter that shows dip strength at a glance, and ships with alerts that match common execution workflows.
How Dip Hunter thinks
It defines a recent swing reference, measures how far price has dipped off that high, and only looks at candidates that meet your minimum percentage drop.
It confirms the dip with real activity by requiring a volume spike and a volatility spike.
It checks structure with two EMAs. Price should be weak in the short term while the larger context remains constructive.
It optionally requires a higher-timeframe trend to be up so you focus on pullbacks in trending markets.
It bundles those checks into a score and shows you the score on the candles and on a gradient meter.
When everything lines up it paints a green triangle below the bar, shades the background, and (if you wish) draws a horizontal entry line at your chosen level.
Inputs and what they mean
Dip Hunter Settings
• Vol Lookback and Vol Spike : The script computes an average volume over the lookback window and flags a spike when current volume is a multiple of that average. A multiplier of 2.0 means today’s volume must be at least double the average. This helps filter noise and focuses on dips that other traders actually traded.
• Fast EMA and Slow EMA : Short-term and medium-term structure references. A dip is more credible if price closes below the fast EMA while the fast EMA is still below the slow EMA during the pullback. That is classic corrective behavior inside a larger trend.
• Price Smooth : Optional smoothing length for price-derived series. Use this if you trade very noisy assets or low timeframes.
• Volatility Len and Vol Spike (volatility) : The script checks both standard deviation and true range against their own averages. If either expands beyond your multiplier the market confirms the move with range.
• Dip % and Lookback Bars : The engine finds the highest high over the lookback window, then computes the percentage drawdown from that high to the current close. Only dips larger than your threshold qualify.
Trend Filter
• Enable Trend Filter : When on, Dip Hunter will only trigger if the market is in an uptrend.
• Trend EMA Period : The longer EMA that defines the session’s backbone trend.
• Minimum Trend Strength : A small positive slope requirement. In practice this means the trend EMA should be rising, and price should be above it. You can raise the value to be more selective.
Entries
• Show Entry Lines : Draws a horizontal guide from the signal bar for a fixed number of bars. Great for limit orders, scaling, or re-tests.
• Line Length (bars) : How far the entry guide extends.
• Min Gap (bars) : Suppresses new entry lines if another dip fired recently. Prevents clutter during choppy sequences.
• Entry Price : Choose the line level. “Low” anchors at the signal candle’s low. “Close” anchors at the signal close. “Dip % Level” anchors at the theoretical level defined by recent_high × (1 − dip%). This lets you work resting orders at a consistent discount.
Heat / Meter
• Color Bars by Score : Colors each candle using a red→white→green gradient. Red is overheated, green is prime dip territory, white is neutral.
• Show Meter Table : Adds a compact gradient strip with a pointer that tracks the current score.
• Meter Cells and Meter Position : Resolution and placement of the meter.
UI Settings
• Show Dip Signals : Plots green triangles under qualifying bars and tints the background very lightly.
• Show EMAs : Plots fast, slow, and the trend EMA (if the trend filter is enabled).
• Bullish, Bearish, Neutral colors : Theme controls for shapes, fills, and bar painting.
Core calculations explained simply
Recent high and dip percent
The script finds the highest high over Lookback Bars , calls it “recent high,” then calculates:
dip% = (recent_high − close) ÷ recent_high × 100.
If dip% is larger than Dip % , condition one passes.
Volume confirmation
It computes a simple moving average of volume over Vol Lookback . If current volume ÷ average volume > Vol Spike , we have a participation spike. It also checks 5-bar ROC of volume. If ROC > 50 the spike is forceful. This gets an extra score point.
Volatility confirmation
Two independent checks:
• Standard deviation of closes vs its own average.
• True range vs ATR.
If either expands beyond Vol Spike (volatility) the move has range. This prevents false triggers from quiet drifts.
Short-term structure
Price should close below the Fast EMA and the fast EMA should be below the Slow EMA at the moment of the dip. That is the anatomy of a pullback rather than a full breakdown.
Macro trend context (optional)
When Enable Trend Filter is on, the Trend EMA must be rising and price must be above it. The logic prefers “micro weakness inside macro strength” which is the highest probability pattern for buying dips.
Signal formation
A valid dip requires:
• dip% > threshold
• volume spike true
• volatility spike true
• close below fast EMA
• fast EMA below slow EMA
If the trend filter is enabled, a rising trend EMA with price above it is also required. When all true, the triangle prints, the background tints, and optional entry lines are drawn.
Scoring and visuals
Binary checks into a continuous score
Each component contributes to a score between 0 and 1. The script then rescales to a centered range (−50 to +50).
• Low or negative scores imply “overheated” conditions and are shaded toward red.
• High positive scores imply “ripe for a dip buy” conditions and are shaded toward green.
• The gradient meter repeats the same logic, with a pointer so you can read the state quickly.
Bar coloring
If you enable “Color Bars by Score,” each candle inherits the gradient. This makes sequences obvious. Red clusters warn you not to buy. White means neutral. Increasing green suggests the pullback is maturing.
EMAs and the trend EMA
• Fast EMA turns down relative to the slow EMA inside the pullback.
• Trend EMA stays rising and above price once the dip exhausts, which is your cue to focus on long setups rather than bottom fishing in downtrends.
Entry lines
When a fresh signal fires and no other signal happened within Min Gap (bars) , the indicator draws a horizontal level for Line Length bars. Use these lines for limit entries at the low, at the close, or at the defined dip-percent level. This keeps your plan consistent across instruments.
Alerts and what they mean
• Market Overheated : Score is deeply negative. Do not chase. Wait for green.
• Close To A Dip : Score has reached a healthy level but the full signal did not trigger yet. Prepare orders.
• Dip Confirmed : First bar of a fresh validated dip. This is the most direct entry alert.
• Dip Active : The dip condition remains valid. You can scale in on re-tests.
• Dip Fading : Score crosses below 0.5 from above. Momentum of the setup is fading. Tighten stops or take partials.
• Trend Blocked Signal : All dip conditions passed but the trend filter is offside. Either reduce risk or skip, depending on your plan.
How to trade with Dip Hunter
Classic pullback in uptrend
Turn on the trend filter.
Watch for a Dip Confirmed alert with green triangle.
Use the entry line at “Dip % Level” to stage a limit order. This keeps your entries consistent across assets and timeframes.
Initial stop under the signal bar’s low or under the next lower EMA band.
First target at prior swing high, second target at a multiple of risk.
If you use partials, trail the remainder under the fast EMA once price reclaims it.
Aggressive intraday scalps
Lower Dip % and Lookback Bars so you catch shallow flags.
Keep Vol Spike meaningful so you only trade when participation appears.
Take quick partials when price reclaims the fast EMA, then exit on Dip Fading if momentum stalls.
Counter-trend probes
Disable the trend filter if you intentionally hunt reflex bounces in downtrends.
Require strong volume and volatility confirmation.
Use smaller size and faster targets. The meter should move quickly from red toward white and then green. If it does not, step aside.
Risk management templates
Stops
• Conservative: below the entry line minus a small buffer or below the signal bar’s low.
• Structural: below the slow EMA if you aim for swing continuation.
• Time stop: if price does not reclaim the fast EMA within N bars, exit.
Position sizing
Use the distance between the entry line and your structural stop to size consistently. The script’s entry lines make this distance obvious.
Scaling
• Scale at the entry line first touch.
• Add only if the meter stays green and price reclaims the fast EMA.
• Stop adding on a Dip Fading alert.
Tuning guide by market and timeframe
Equities daily
• Dip %: 1.5 to 3.0
• Lookback Bars: 5 to 10
• Vol Spike: 1.5 to 2.5
• Volatility Len: 14 to 20
• Trend EMA: 100 or 200
• Keep trend filter on for a cleaner list.
Futures and FX intraday
• Dip %: 0.4 to 1.2
• Lookback Bars: 3 to 7
• Vol Spike: 1.8 to 3.0
• Volatility Len: 10 to 14
• Use Min Gap to avoid clusters during news.
Crypto
• Dip %: 3.0 to 6.0 for majors on higher timeframes, lower on 15m to 1h
• Lookback Bars: 5 to 12
• Vol Spike: 1.8 to 3.0
• ATR and stdev checks help in erratic sessions.
Reading the chart at a glance
• Green triangle below the bar: a validated dip.
• Light green background: the current bar meets the full condition.
• Bar gradient: red is overheated, white is neutral, green is dip-friendly.
• EMAs: fast below slow during the pullback, then reclaim fast EMA on the bounce for quality continuation.
• Trend EMA: a rising spine when the filter is on.
• Entry line: a fixed level to anchor orders and risk.
• Meter pointer: right side toward “Dip” means conditions are maturing.
Why this combination reduces false positives
Any single criterion will trigger too often. Dip Hunter demands a dip off a recent high plus a volume surge plus a volatility expansion plus corrective EMA structure. Optional trend alignment pushes odds further in your favor. The score and meter visualize how many of these boxes you are actually ticking, which is more reliable than a binary dot.
Limitations and practical tips
• Thin or illiquid symbols can spoof volume spikes. Use larger Vol Lookback or raise Vol Spike .
• Sideways markets will show frequent small dips. Increase Dip % or keep the trend filter on.
• News candles can blow through entry lines. Widen stops or skip around known events.
• If you see many back-to-back triangles, raise Min Gap to keep only the best setups.
Quick setup recipes
• Clean swing trader: Trend filter on, Dip % 2.0 to 3.0, Vol Spike 2.0, Volatility Len 14, Fast 20 EMA, Slow 50 EMA, Trend 100 EMA.
• Fast intraday scalper: Trend filter off, Dip % 0.7 to 1.0, Vol Spike 2.5, Volatility Len 10, Fast 9 EMA, Slow 21 EMA, Min Gap 10 bars.
• Crypto swing: Trend filter on, Dip % 4.0, Vol Spike 2.0, Volatility Len 14, Fast 20 EMA, Slow 50 EMA, Trend 200 EMA.
Summary
Dip Hunter is a focused pullback engine. It quantifies a real dip off a recent high, validates it with volume and volatility expansion, enforces corrective structure with EMAs, and optionally restricts signals to an uptrend. The score, bar gradient, and meter make reading conditions instant. Entry lines and alerts turn that read into an executable plan. Tune the thresholds to your market and timeframe, then let the tool keep you patient in red, selective in white, and decisive in green.
Backquant
Time-Decaying Percentile Oscillator [BackQuant]Time-Decaying Percentile Oscillator
1. Big-picture idea
Traditional percentile or stochastic oscillators treat every bar in the look-back window as equally important. That is fine when markets are slow, but if volatility regime changes quickly yesterday’s print should matter more than last month’s. The Time-Decaying Percentile Oscillator attempts to fix that blind spot by assigning an adjustable weight to every past price before it is ranked. The result is a percentile score that “breathes” with market tempo much faster to flag new extremes yet still smooth enough to ignore random noise.
2. What the script actually does
Build a weight curve
• You pick a look-back length (default 28 bars).
• You decide whether weights fall Linearly , Exponentially , by Power-law or Logarithmically .
• A decay factor (lower = faster fade) shapes how quickly the oldest price loses influence.
• The array is normalised so all weights still sum to 1.
Rank prices by weighted mass
• Every close in the window is paired with its weight.
• The pairs are sorted from low to high.
• The cumulative weight is walked until it equals your chosen percentile level (default 50 = median).
• That price becomes the Time-Decayed Percentile .
Find dispersion with robust statistics
• Instead of a fragile standard deviation the script measures weighted Median-Absolute-Deviation about the new percentile.
• You multiply that deviation by the Deviation Multiplier slider (default 1.0) to get a non-parametric volatility band.
Build an adaptive channel
• Upper band = percentile + (multiplier × deviation)
• Lower band = percentile – (multiplier × deviation)
Normalise into a 0-100 oscillator
• The current close is mapped inside that band:
0 = lower band, 50 = centre, 100 = upper band.
• If the channel squeezes, tiny moves still travel the full scale; if volatility explodes, it automatically widens.
Optional smoothing
• A second-stage moving average (EMA, SMA, DEMA, TEMA, etc.) tames the jitter.
• Length 22 EMA by default—change it to tune reaction speed.
Threshold logic
• Upper Threshold 70 and Lower Threshold 30 separate standard overbought/oversold states.
• Extreme bands 85 and 15 paint background heat when aggressive fade or breakout trades might trigger.
Divergence engine
• Looks back twenty bars.
• Flags Bullish divergence when price makes a lower low but oscillator refuses to confirm (value < 40).
• Flags Bearish divergence when price prints a higher high but oscillator stalls (value > 60).
3. Component walk-through
• Source – Any price series. Close by default, switch to typical price or custom OHLC4 for futures spreads.
• Look-back Period – How many bars to rank. Short = faster, long = slower.
• Base Percentile Level – 50 shows relative position around the median; set to 25 / 75 for quartile tracking or 90 / 10 for extreme tails.
• Deviation Multiplier – Higher values widen the dynamic channel, lowering whipsaw but delaying signals.
• Decay Settings
– Type decides the curve shape. Exponential (default 1.16) mimics EMA logic.
– Factor < 1 shrinks influence faster; > 1 spreads influence flatter.
– Toggle Enable Time Decay off to compare with classic equal-weight stochastic.
• Smoothing Block – Choose one of seven MA flavours plus length.
• Thresholds – Overbought / Oversold / Extreme levels. Push them out when working on very mean-reverting assets like FX; pull them in for trend monsters like crypto.
• Display toggles – Show or hide threshold lines, extreme filler zones, bar colouring, divergence labels.
• Colours – Bullish green, bearish red, neutral grey. Every gradient step is automatically blended to generate a heat map across the 0-100 range.
4. How to read the chart
• Oscillator creeping above 70 = market auctioning near the top of its adaptive range.
• Fast poke above 85 with no follow-through = exhaustion fade candidate.
• Slow grind that lives above 70 for many bars = valid bullish trend, not a fade.
• Cross back through 50 shows balance has shifted; treat it like a micro trend change.
• Divergence arrows add extra confidence when you already see two-bar reversal candles at range extremes.
• Background shading (semi-transparent red / green) warns of extreme states and throttles your position size.
5. Practical trading playbook
Mean-reversion scalps
1. Wait for oscillator to reach your desired OB/ OS levels
2. Check the slope of the smoothing MA—if it is flattening the squeeze is mature.
3. Look for a one- or two-bar reversal pattern.
4. Enter against the move; first target = midline 50, second target = opposite threshold.
5. Stop loss just beyond the extreme band.
Trend continuation pullbacks
1. Identify a clean directional trend on the price chart.
2. During the trend, TDP will oscillate between midline and extreme of that side.
3. Buy dips when oscillator hits OS levels, and the same for OB levels & shorting
4. Exit when oscillator re-tags the same-side extreme or prints divergence.
Volatility regime filter
• Use the Enable Time Decay switch as a regime test.
• If equal-weight oscillator and decayed oscillator diverge widely, market is entering a new volatility regime—tighten stops and trade smaller.
Divergence confirmation for other indicators
• Pair TDP divergence arrows with MACD histogram or RSI to filter false positives.
• The weighted nature means TDP often spots divergence a bar or two earlier than standard RSI.
Swing breakout strategy
1. During consolidation, band width compresses and oscillator oscillates around 50.
2. Watch for sudden expansion where oscillator blasts through extreme bands and stays pinned.
3. Enter with momentum in breakout direction; trail stop behind upper or lower band as it re-expands.
6. Customising decay mathematics
Linear – Each older bar loses the same fixed amount of influence. Intuitive and stable; good for slow swing charts.
Exponential – Influence halves every “decay factor” steps. Mirrors EMA thinking and is fastest to react.
Power-law – Mid-history bars keep more authority than exponential but oldest data still fades. Handy for commodities where seasonality matters.
Logarithmic – The gentlest curve; weight drops sharply at first then levels off. Mimics how traders remember dramatic moves for weeks but forget ordinary noise quickly.
Turn decay off to verify the tool’s added value; most users never switch back.
7. Alert catalogue
• TD Overbought / TD Oversold – Cross of regular thresholds.
• TD Extreme OB / OS – Breach of danger zones.
• TD Bullish / Bearish Divergence – High-probability reversal watch.
• TD Midline Cross – Momentum shift that often precedes a window where trend-following systems perform.
8. Visual hygiene tips
• If you already plot price on a dark background pick Bullish Color and Bearish Color default; change to pastel tones for light themes.
• Hide threshold lines after you memorise the zones to declutter scalping layouts.
• Overlay mode set to false so the oscillator lives in its own panel; keep height about 30 % of screen for best resolution.
9. Final notes
Time-Decaying Percentile Oscillator marries robust statistical ranking, adaptive dispersion and decay-aware weighting into a simple oscillator. It respects both recent order-flow shocks and historical context, offers granular control over responsiveness and ships with divergence and alert plumbing out of the box. Bolt it onto your price action framework, trend-following system or volatility mean-reversion playbook and see how much sooner it recognises genuine extremes compared to legacy oscillators.
Backtest thoroughly, experiment with decay curves on each asset class and remember: in trading, timing beats timidity but patience beats impulse. May this tool help you find that edge.
Composite Trend Trader Module [BackQuant]Composite Trend Trader Module
Overview and Purpose
The Composite Trend Trader Module (CTM) is an invite-only Pine Script indicator designed to provide traders with a comprehensive tool for trend-following, dip-buying, and market strength assessment. By integrating multiple market data inputs—price momentum, volatility, volume, and statistical baselines—the CTM generates actionable outputs for trend identification, swing trade entries, and dip-buying opportunities. The indicator is intended for traders seeking a systematic approach to market analysis with customizable settings, while maintaining simplicity in its user interface. As a closed-source script, the underlying calculations remain proprietary, but this description outlines its functionality, features, and practical applications in trading.
Visual Components
The CTM provides the following visual elements on the chart:
• Signal Spine – A colored line (default 25-period weighted moving average) that reflects the dominant trend—green for bullish, red for bearish, and grey for neutral or transitional periods.
• Swing Triggers – Unicode markers ("𝕃" for long, "𝕊" for short) appear below or above bars when the trend shifts, signaling potential swing trade entries.
• Dip-Hunter Signals – Green arrows mark dip-buying opportunities, accompanied by faint green background highlights and forward-projecting entry lines for precise entry levels.
• Heat Meter – A horizontal strip at the bottom of the chart, graded from -50 (overheated) to +50 (deep dip), visually indicates the strength of dip conditions using a red-to-green gradient.
Core Features
The CTM comprises several components that work together to deliver a cohesive trading framework. Below is a detailed explanation of each, without disclosing proprietary calculations.
1. Universal Trend Tracking (UTT)
The UTT combines multiple momentum and statistical indicators into a single composite score ranging from -1 to +1. This score is derived from:
• Price-based momentum metrics.
• Volatility-adjusted thresholds.
• Statistical measures of price deviation and market structure.
When the UTT score exceeds +0.2, the market is considered in an actionable uptrend; below -0.2, a downtrend is identified. Values between these thresholds indicate a neutral or choppy market, helping traders avoid low-probability setups during consolidation.
2. Signal Spine
The signal spine is a 25-period weighted moving average of price, colored according to the UTT score (green for bullish, red for bearish, grey for neutral). This line serves as a visual anchor for tracking the prevailing trend and highlights regime changes in real time, enabling traders to align their strategies with market direction.
3. Swing Triggers (𝕃/𝕊)
Swing trade signals are generated when the UTT crosses the zero line, indicating a shift in market regime. A "𝕃" marker appears below the bar for a bullish crossover (potential long entry), and a "𝕊" marker appears above for a bearish crossover (potential short entry). These signals incorporate volatility-adaptive thresholds to minimize false triggers during low-volatility periods, improving reliability compared to traditional moving-average crossovers.
4. Dip-Hunter Engine
The Dip-Hunter subsystem identifies high-probability dip-buying opportunities by evaluating five conditions:
• Dip Magnitude – The price must have fallen by a user-defined percentage (default 2%) from a recent swing high, calculated over a specified lookback period (default 5 bars).
• Volume Burst – Current volume must exceed the average volume over a user-defined lookback (default 65 bars) by a specified multiplier (default 2x).
• Volatility Spike – The intraday range or Average True Range (ATR) must exceed a statistical baseline by a user-defined multiplier (default 1.5x).
• Structural Permission – Price must be below a fast Exponential Moving Average (EMA, default 20 periods), and the market structure must be bearish (fast EMA below slow EMA, default 50 periods).
• Trend Filter (Optional) – When enabled, dip signals are only generated if the UTT indicates a bullish trend, preventing trades against a bearish macro environment.
When these conditions align, the Dip-Hunter plots a green arrow, highlights the candle background, and draws a forward-projecting horizontal line at a user-selected price level (Low, Close, or calculated dip percentage).
5. Strength Score and Heat Meter
Each bar is assigned a strength score (0 to 5, or -50 to +50 when scaled for the heat meter) based on the following criteria:
• +1 for meeting the dip threshold.
• +1 for a volume spike.
• +1 for a volume momentum spike (based on rate-of-change).
• +1 for a confirmed volatility spike.
• +1 if price is below the fast EMA.
• +2 if the macro trend filter is bullish (when enabled).
The heat meter visualizes this score as a pointer on a red-to-green gradient strip, enabling traders to quickly assess the intensity of dip conditions and prioritize high-quality setups.
6. Entry-Line Generator
For each dip signal, the CTM draws a forward-projecting horizontal line to mark potential entry levels. Traders can configure:
• The price level for the line (Low, Close, or exact dip percentage).
• The duration of the line (default 100 bars).
• A minimum gap between signals (default 5 bars) to prevent overlapping lines during clustered events.
These lines serve as visual guides for setting limit orders or stop-loss levels.
7. Alerts
The CTM includes seven pre-configured alert conditions to support automated workflows:
• CTM Long/Short – Triggered on bullish or bearish UTT zero-line crossovers for swing trades.
• Market Overheated – Activates when the strength score falls below -40, indicating potential exhaustion.
• Close to Dip – Signals when the strength score reaches 0.6, suggesting an impending dip opportunity.
• Dip Confirmed – Fires on the first bar meeting all dip conditions.
• Dip Active – Triggers while dip conditions remain valid.
• Dip Fading – Activates when the strength score crosses below 0.5, indicating a weakening dip.
• Trend-Blocked – Alerts when dip conditions are met but blocked by the trend filter.
These alerts can be routed to brokers or trading bots for seamless execution.
"CPM Long Signal {{exchange}}:{{ticker}}")
"CPM Short Signal {{exchange}}:{{ticker}}")
"Market overheated {{ticker}}")
"Close to a dip {{ticker}}")
"Dip confirmed {{ticker}}")
"Dip active {{ticker}}")
"Dip strength fading {{ticker}}")
"Signal blocked by trend filter {{ticker}}")
User Controls
The CTM offers extensive customization to adapt to different trading styles and preferences:
• Signal Settings – Toggle the signal spine, composite score plot, swing triggers, and bar coloring. Adjust line width for visibility.
• Display Settings – Customize bullish, bearish, and neutral colors to match chart templates.
• Dip-Hunter Settings – Configure volume lookback, spike multipliers, EMA periods, volatility thresholds, dip percentage, and lookback bars.
• Trend Filter – Enable or disable the requirement for a bullish UTT before dip signals are generated.
• Strength & Meter – Toggle bar coloring based on the strength score, adjust the number of meter cells (default 60), and select meter position (e.g., bottom-center).
• Entry Settings – Control entry line visibility, length, and price source (Low, Close, or dip percentage).
Trading Applications
The CTM supports multiple trading strategies, each leveraging its outputs for specific market conditions:
• Trend-Ride Mode – Trade in the direction of the signal spine. Enter long positions on the first "𝕃" marker in a green (bullish) regime, and scale out when the UTT returns to grey (neutral). This is ideal for trend-following traders seeking to capture sustained moves, with the first signal in a new trend regime offering high statistical expectancy.
• Forced Dip Entries – Enable the trend filter and focus on dip signals (green arrows). Place limit orders at the entry line, set stops below the line, and target the midpoint of the prior value area (e.g., using support/resistance levels). This suits mean-reversion traders aiming to buy dips in bullish trends, with clear risk management via entry lines.
• Scalp Confirmation – Hide the signal spine and use bar coloring to identify short-term momentum. Green bars indicate broad buying pressure, while red bars warn against long scalps in oversold conditions. This is useful for intraday scalpers seeking confirmation of momentum before entering trades.
• Event Guardrails – Avoid trading when the heat meter is below -40 before major economic releases (e.g., FOMC, CPI), as spreads and slippage may widen. This enhances risk management by flagging high-risk periods during macroeconomic events.
• Multi-Timeframe Analysis – Apply the CTM on a daily timeframe in a secondary pane and a lower timeframe (e.g., hourly) on the primary chart. Trade only when both timeframes align (e.g., both in bullish regimes). This increases conviction for swing or position traders by confirming trend alignment across timeframes.
Frequently Asked Questions
• How does the CTM differ from a moving-average ribbon? The CTM integrates multiple momentum, volatility, and statistical indicators, using adaptive thresholds and proprietary calculations to respond faster to structural changes while filtering noise more effectively than traditional dual-EMA systems.
• Can the underlying formulas be accessed? No, the script is closed-source, and calculations are protected to preserve intellectual property. Users receive all outputs, alerts, and customizable parameters.
• Does the indicator repaint? No, all calculations use confirmed historical data without look-ahead bias. Entry lines are static from the signal bar.
• Which markets is it suitable for? The CTM is optimized for equities, futures, and cryptocurrencies. Adjust dip percentage and volume multipliers for low-liquidity markets.
• What about latency? The script uses efficient Pine Script functions and lightweight loops, ensuring minimal performance impact.
Limitations and Best Practices
• Market-Specific Tuning – Thinly traded markets may require adjustments to dip percentage and volume thresholds to avoid excessive signals.
• Complementary Tools – Combine the CTM with price action, support/resistance levels, or order flow analysis to confirm signals and avoid over-reliance on the indicator.
• Event Risk – Be cautious during high-impact news events, as volatility spikes may trigger signals that are quickly reversed.
• Trend Filter Use – Enabling the trend filter reduces false dip signals in bearish markets but may delay entries in rapidly reversing markets.
Conclusion
The Composite Trend Trader Module consolidates trend-following, dip-buying, and strength assessment into a single, customizable indicator. By providing clear visual cues, actionable alerts, and flexible settings, it equips traders with a robust framework for navigating various market conditions. While the proprietary calculations remain protected, the CTM’s outputs enable traders to make informed decisions, align strategies with market regimes, and manage risk effectively. Use it as a strategic tool alongside sound risk management and complementary analysis for optimal results.
Recession Warning Model [BackQuant]Recession Warning Model
Overview
The Recession Warning Model (RWM) is a Pine Script® indicator designed to estimate the probability of an economic recession by integrating multiple macroeconomic, market sentiment, and labor market indicators. It combines over a dozen data series into a transparent, adaptive, and actionable tool for traders, portfolio managers, and researchers. The model provides customizable complexity levels, display modes, and data processing options to accommodate various analytical requirements while ensuring robustness through dynamic weighting and regime-aware adjustments.
Purpose
The RWM fulfills the need for a concise yet comprehensive tool to monitor recession risk. Unlike approaches relying on a single metric, such as yield-curve inversion, or extensive economic reports, it consolidates multiple data sources into a single probability output. The model identifies active indicators, their confidence levels, and the current economic regime, enabling users to anticipate downturns and adjust strategies accordingly.
Core Features
- Indicator Families : Incorporates 13 indicators across five categories: Yield, Labor, Sentiment, Production, and Financial Stress.
- Dynamic Weighting : Adjusts indicator weights based on recent predictive accuracy, constrained within user-defined boundaries.
- Leading and Coincident Split : Separates early-warning (leading) and confirmatory (coincident) signals, with adjustable weighting (default 60/40 mix).
- Economic Regime Sensitivity : Modulates output sensitivity based on market conditions (Expansion, Late-Cycle, Stress, Crisis), using a composite of VIX, yield-curve, financial conditions, and credit spreads.
- Display Options : Supports four modes—Probability (0-100%), Binary (four risk bins), Lead/Coincident, and Ensemble (blended probability).
- Confidence Intervals : Reflects model stability, widening during high volatility or conflicting signals.
- Alerts : Configurable thresholds (Watch, Caution, Warning, Alert) with persistence filters to minimize false signals.
- Data Export : Enables CSV output for probabilities, signals, and regimes, facilitating external analysis in Python or R.
Model Complexity Levels
Users can select from four tiers to balance simplicity and depth:
1. Essential : Focuses on three core indicators—yield-curve spread, jobless claims, and unemployment change—for minimalistic monitoring.
2. Standard : Expands to nine indicators, adding consumer confidence, PMI, VIX, S&P 500 trend, money supply vs. GDP, and the Sahm Rule.
3. Professional : Includes all 13 indicators, incorporating financial conditions, credit spreads, JOLTS vacancies, and wage growth.
4. Research : Unlocks all indicators plus experimental settings for advanced users.
Key Indicators
Below is a summary of the 13 indicators, their data sources, and economic significance:
- Yield-Curve Spread : Difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields. Negative spreads signal banking sector stress.
- Jobless Claims : Four-week moving average of unemployment claims. Sustained increases indicate rising layoffs.
- Unemployment Change : Three-month change in unemployment rate. Sharp rises often precede recessions.
- Sahm Rule : Triggers when unemployment rises 0.5% above its 12-month low, a reliable recession indicator.
- Consumer Confidence : University of Michigan survey. Declines reflect household pessimism, impacting spending.
- PMI : Purchasing Managers’ Index. Values below 50 indicate manufacturing contraction.
- VIX : CBOE Volatility Index. Elevated levels suggest market anticipation of economic distress.
- S&P 500 Growth : Weekly moving average trend. Declines reduce wealth effects, curbing consumption.
- M2 + GDP Trend : Monitors money supply and real GDP. Simultaneous declines signal credit contraction.
- NFCI : Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index. Positive values indicate tighter conditions.
- Credit Spreads : Proxy for corporate bond spreads using 10-year vs. 2-year Treasury yields. Widening spreads reflect stress.
- JOLTS Vacancies : Job openings data. Significant drops precede hiring slowdowns.
- Wage Growth : Year-over-year change in average hourly earnings. Late-cycle spikes often signal economic overheating.
Data Processing
- Rate of Change (ROC) : Optionally applied to capture momentum in data series (default: 21-bar period).
- Z-Score Normalization : Standardizes indicators to a common scale (default: 252-bar lookback).
- Smoothing : Applies a short moving average to final signals (default: 5-bar period) to reduce noise.
- Binary Signals : Generated for each indicator (e.g., yield-curve inverted or PMI below 50) based on thresholds or Z-score deviations.
Probability Calculation
1. Each indicator’s binary signal is weighted according to user settings or dynamic performance.
2. Weights are normalized to sum to 100% across active indicators.
3. Leading and coincident signals are aggregated separately (if split mode is enabled) and combined using the specified mix.
4. The probability is adjusted by a regime multiplier, amplifying risk during Stress or Crisis regimes.
5. Optional smoothing ensures stable outputs.
Display and Visualization
- Probability Mode : Plots a continuous 0-100% recession probability with color gradients and confidence bands.
- Binary Mode : Categorizes risk into four levels (Minimal, Watch, Caution, Alert) for simplified dashboards.
- Lead/Coincident Mode : Displays leading and coincident probabilities separately to track signal divergence.
- Ensemble Mode : Averages traditional and split probabilities for a balanced view.
- Regime Background : Color-coded overlays (green for Expansion, orange for Late-Cycle, amber for Stress, red for Crisis).
- Analytics Table : Optional dashboard showing probability, confidence, regime, and top indicator statuses.
Practical Applications
- Asset Allocation : Adjust equity or bond exposures based on sustained probability increases.
- Risk Management : Hedge portfolios with VIX futures or options during regime shifts to Stress or Crisis.
- Sector Rotation : Shift toward defensive sectors when coincident signals rise above 50%.
- Trading Filters : Disable short-term strategies during high-risk regimes.
- Event Timing : Scale positions ahead of high-impact data releases when probability and VIX are elevated.
Configuration Guidelines
- Enable ROC and Z-score for consistent indicator comparison unless raw data is preferred.
- Use dynamic weighting with at least one economic cycle of data for optimal performance.
- Monitor stress composite scores above 80 alongside probabilities above 70 for critical risk signals.
- Adjust adaptation speed (default: 0.1) to 0.2 during Crisis regimes for faster indicator prioritization.
- Combine RWM with complementary tools (e.g., liquidity metrics) for intraday or short-term trading.
Limitations
- Macro indicators lag intraday market moves, making RWM better suited for strategic rather than tactical trading.
- Historical data availability may constrain dynamic weighting on shorter timeframes.
- Model accuracy depends on the quality and timeliness of economic data feeds.
Final Note
The Recession Warning Model provides a disciplined framework for monitoring economic downturn risks. By integrating diverse indicators with transparent weighting and regime-aware adjustments, it empowers users to make informed decisions in portfolio management, risk hedging, or macroeconomic research. Regular review of model outputs alongside market-specific tools ensures its effective application across varying market conditions.
MP Master VWAP [BackQuant]MP Master VWAP
Overview
MP Master VWAP is an, volume-weighted average price suite. It re-anchors automatically to any time partition you select—Day, Week, Month, Quarter or Year—and builds an adaptive standard-deviation envelope, optional pivot clusters and context-aware candle colouring so you can read balance, imbalance and auction edges in a single glance. We use private methods on calculating key levels, making them adaptive and more responsive. This is not just a plain VWAP.
Key Components
• Anchored VWAP core – The engine resets VWAP the instant a new session for the chosen anchor begins. Separator lines and a live high–low box make those rotations obvious.
• Dynamic sigma bands – Three upper and three lower bands, scaled by real-time standard deviation. 1-σ filters noise, 2-σ marks momentum, 3-σ flags exhaustion.
• Previous-period memory – The prior session’s VWAP and bands stay on-screen in a muted style so you can trade retests of last month’s value without clutter.
• High-precision price labels – VWAP and every active band print their prices on the hard right edge; labels vanish if you want a cleaner chart.
• Pivot package – Choose Traditional, Fibonacci or Camarilla calculations on a Daily, Weekly or Monthly look-back. Levels plot as subtle circles that complement, not compete with, the VWAP map.
• Context candles – Bars tint relative to their location: vivid red above U2, soft red between U1-U2, neutral grey inside value, soft green between L2-L1, vivid green below L2.
Customisation Highlights
Period section
• Anchor reset drop-down
• Toggles for separator lines and period high/low
Band section
• Independent visibility for L1/U1, L2/U2, L3/U3
• Individual multipliers to fit any volatility profile
• Optional real-time price labels
Pivot section
• Three formula choices
• Independent timeframe—mix a Monthly VWAP with Weekly Camarilla for confluence
Visual section
• Separate switches for current vs previous envelopes
• Candle-colour toggle for traders who prefer raw price bars
Colour section
• Full palette selectors to match dark or light themes instantly
Some Potential Ways it can be used:
Mean-reversion fade – Price spikes into U2 or U3 and stalls (especially at a pivot). Fade back toward VWAP; scale out at U1 and VWAP.
Trend continuation – Close above U1 on rising volume; trail a stop behind U1. Mirror setup for shorts under L1.
Breakout validation – Session gaps below previous VWAP but quickly reclaims it. Use the cross-above alert to automate entry and target U1 / U2.
Overnight inventory flush – Globex extremes that tag L2 / U2 often reverse at the cash open; scalp rotations back to VWAP.
Risk framing – Let the gap between VWAP and L2 / U2 dictate position size, keeping reward-to-risk consistent across assets.
Alerts Included
• Cross above / below current VWAP
• Cross first sigma bands (U1 / L1)
• Break above second sigma bands (U2) or below L2
• Touch of third sigma bands (U3 / L3)
• Cross of previous-period VWAP
• New period high or low
Best Practices
• Tighten sigma multipliers on thin-liquidity symbols; widen them on index futures or high-cap crypto.
• Pair the envelope with order-flow or footprint tools to confirm participation at band edges.
• On intraday charts, anchor a higher-timeframe VWAP (e.g., Monthly on a 15-minute) to reveal institutional accumulation.
• Treat the previous period’s VWAP as yesterday’s fair value—gaps that never revisit it often morph into trend days.
Final Notes
MP Master VWAP condenses auction-market theory into one readable overlay: automatic period resets, adaptive deviation bands, historical memory, multi-style pivots and self-explanatory colour coding. You can deploy it on equities, futures, crypto or FX—wherever volume meets time, VWAP remains the benchmark of true price discovery.
Savitzky-Golay Z-Score [BackQuant]Savitzky-Golay Z-Score
The Savitzky-Golay Z-Score is a powerful trading indicator that combines the precision of the Savitzky-Golay filter with the statistical strength of the Z-Score. This advanced indicator is designed to detect trend shifts, identify overbought or oversold conditions, and highlight potential divergences in the market, providing traders with a unique edge in detecting momentum changes and trend reversals.
Core Concept: Savitzky-Golay Filter
The Savitzky-Golay filter is a widely-used smoothing technique that preserves important signal features such as peak detection while filtering out noise. In this indicator, the filter is applied to price data (default set to HLC3) to smooth out volatility and produce a cleaner trend line. By specifying the window size and polynomial degree, traders can fine-tune the degree of smoothing to match their preferred trading style or market conditions.
Z-Score: Measuring Deviation
The Z-Score is a statistical measure that indicates how far the current price is from its mean in terms of standard deviations. In trading, the Z-Score can be used to identify extreme price moves that are likely to revert or continue trending. A positive Z-Score means the price is above the mean, while a negative Z-Score indicates the price is below the mean.
This script calculates the Z-Score based on the Savitzky-Golay filtered price, enabling traders to detect moments when the price is diverging from its typical range and may present an opportunity for a trade.
Long and Short Conditions
The Savitzky-Golay Z-Score generates clear long and short signals based on the Z-Score value:
Long Signals : When the Z-Score is positive, indicating the price is above its smoothed mean, a long signal is generated. The color of the bars turns green, signaling upward momentum.
Short Signals : When the Z-Score is negative, indicating the price is below its smoothed mean, a short signal is generated. The bars turn red, signaling downward momentum.
These signals allow traders to follow the prevailing trend with confidence, using statistical backing to avoid false signals from short-term volatility.
Standard Deviation Levels and Extreme Levels
This indicator includes several features to help visualize overbought and oversold conditions:
Standard Deviation Levels: The script plots horizontal lines at +1, +2, -1, and -2 standard deviations. These levels provide a reference for how far the current price is from the mean, allowing traders to quickly identify when the price is moving into extreme territory.
Extreme Levels: Additional extreme levels at +3 and +4 (and their negative counterparts) are plotted to highlight areas where the price is highly likely to revert. These extreme levels provide important insight into market conditions that are far outside the norm, signaling caution or potential reversal zones.
The indicator also adapts the color shading of these extreme zones based on the Z-Score’s strength. For example, the area between +3 and +4 is shaded with a stronger color when the Z-Score approaches these values, giving a visual representation of market pressure.
Divergences: Detecting Hidden and Regular Signals
A key feature of the Savitzky-Golay Z-Score is its ability to detect bullish and bearish divergences, both regular and hidden:
Regular Bullish Divergence: This occurs when the price makes a lower low while the Z-Score forms a higher low. It signals that bearish momentum is weakening, and a bullish reversal could be near.
Hidden Bullish Divergence: This divergence occurs when the price makes a higher low while the Z-Score forms a lower low. It signals that bullish momentum may continue after a temporary pullback.
Regular Bearish Divergence: This occurs when the price makes a higher high while the Z-Score forms a lower high, signaling that bullish momentum is weakening and a bearish reversal may be near.
Hidden Bearish Divergence: This divergence occurs when the price makes a lower high while the Z-Score forms a higher high, indicating that bearish momentum may continue after a temporary rally.
These divergences are plotted directly on the chart, making it easier for traders to spot when the price and momentum are out of sync and when a potential reversal may occur.
Customization and Visualization
The Savitzky-Golay Z-Score offers a range of customization options to fit different trading styles:
Window Size and Polynomial Degree: Adjust the window size and polynomial degree of the Savitzky-Golay filter to control how much smoothing is applied to the price data.
Z-Score Lookback Period: Set the lookback period for calculating the Z-Score, allowing traders to fine-tune the sensitivity to short-term or long-term price movements.
Display Options: Choose whether to display standard deviation levels, extreme levels, and divergence labels on the chart.
Bar Color: Color the price bars based on trend direction, with green for bullish trends and red for bearish trends, allowing traders to easily visualize the current momentum.
Divergences: Enable or disable divergence detection, and adjust the lookback periods for pivots used to detect regular and hidden divergences.
Alerts and Automation
To ensure you never miss an important signal, the indicator includes built-in alert conditions for the following events:
Positive Z-Score (Long Signal): Triggers an alert when the Z-Score crosses above zero, indicating a potential buying opportunity.
Negative Z-Score (Short Signal): Triggers an alert when the Z-Score crosses below zero, signaling a potential short opportunity.
Shifting Momentum: Alerts when the Z-Score is shifting up or down, providing early warning of changing market conditions.
These alerts can be configured to notify you via email, SMS, or app notification, allowing you to stay on top of the market without having to constantly monitor the chart.
Trading Applications
The Savitzky-Golay Z-Score is a versatile tool that can be applied across multiple trading strategies:
Trend Following: By smoothing the price and calculating the Z-Score, this indicator helps traders follow the prevailing trend while avoiding false signals from short-term volatility.
Mean Reversion: The Z-Score highlights moments when the price is far from its mean, helping traders identify overbought or oversold conditions and capitalize on potential reversals.
Divergence Trading: Regular and hidden divergences between the Z-Score and price provide early warning of trend reversals, allowing traders to enter trades at opportune moments.
Final Thoughts
The Savitzky-Golay Z-Score is an advanced statistical tool designed to provide a clearer view of market trends and momentum. By applying the Savitzky-Golay filter and Z-Score analysis, this indicator reduces noise and highlights key areas where the market may reverse or accelerate, giving traders a significant edge in understanding price behavior.
Whether you’re a trend follower or a reversal trader, this indicator offers the flexibility and insights you need to navigate complex markets with confidence.
FEDFUNDS Rate Divergence Oscillator [BackQuant]FEDFUNDS Rate Divergence Oscillator
1. Concept and Rationale
The United States Federal Funds Rate is the anchor around which global dollar liquidity and risk-free yield expectations revolve. When the Fed hikes, borrowing costs rise, liquidity tightens and most risk assets encounter head-winds. When it cuts, liquidity expands, speculative appetite often recovers. Bitcoin, a 24-hour permissionless asset sometimes described as “digital gold with venture-capital-like convexity,” is particularly sensitive to macro-liquidity swings.
The FED Divergence Oscillator quantifies the behavioural gap between short-term monetary policy (proxied by the effective Fed Funds Rate) and Bitcoin’s own percentage price change. By converting each series into identical rate-of-change units, subtracting them, then optionally smoothing the result, the script produces a single bounded-yet-dynamic line that tells you, at a glance, whether Bitcoin is outperforming or underperforming the policy backdrop—and by how much.
2. Data Pipeline
• Fed Funds Rate – Pulled directly from the FRED database via the ticker “FRED:FEDFUNDS,” sampled at daily frequency to synchronise with crypto closes.
• Bitcoin Price – By default the script forces a daily timeframe so that both series share time alignment, although you can disable that and plot the oscillator on intraday charts if you prefer.
• User Source Flexibility – The BTC series is not hard-wired; you can select any exchange-specific symbol or even swap BTC for another crypto or risk asset whose interaction with the Fed rate you wish to study.
3. Math under the Hood
(1) Rate of Change (ROC) – Both the Fed rate and BTC close are converted to percent return over a user-chosen lookback (default 30 bars). This means a cut from 5.25 percent to 5.00 percent feeds in as –4.76 percent, while a climb from 25 000 to 30 000 USD in BTC over the same window converts to +20 percent.
(2) Divergence Construction – The script subtracts the Fed ROC from the BTC ROC. Positive values show BTC appreciating faster than policy is tightening (or falling slower than the rate is cutting); negative values show the opposite.
(3) Optional Smoothing – Macro series are noisy. Toggle “Apply Smoothing” to calm the line with your preferred moving-average flavour: SMA, EMA, DEMA, TEMA, RMA, WMA or Hull. The default EMA-25 removes day-to-day whips while keeping turning points alive.
(4) Dynamic Colour Mapping – Rather than using a single hue, the oscillator line employs a gradient where deep greens represent strong bullish divergence and dark reds flag sharp bearish divergence. This heat-map approach lets you gauge intensity without squinting at numbers.
(5) Threshold Grid – Five horizontal guides create a structured regime map:
• Lower Extreme (–50 pct) and Upper Extreme (+50 pct) identify panic capitulations and euphoria blow-offs.
• Oversold (–20 pct) and Overbought (+20 pct) act as early warning alarms.
• Zero Line demarcates neutral alignment.
4. Chart Furniture and User Interface
• Oscillator fill with a secondary DEMA-30 “shader” offers depth perception: fat ribbons often precede high-volatility macro shifts.
• Optional bar-colouring paints candles green when the oscillator is above zero and red below, handy for visual correlation.
• Background tints when the line breaches extreme zones, making macro inflection weeks pop out in the replay bar.
• Everything—line width, thresholds, colours—can be customised so the indicator blends into any template.
5. Interpretation Guide
Macro Liquidity Pulse
• When the oscillator spends weeks above +20 while the Fed is still raising rates, Bitcoin is signalling liquidity tolerance or an anticipatory pivot view. That condition often marks the embryonic phase of major bull cycles (e.g., March 2020 rebound).
• Sustained prints below –20 while the Fed is already dovish indicate risk aversion or idiosyncratic crypto stress—think exchange scandals or broad flight to safety.
Regime Transition Signals
• Bullish cross through zero after a long sub-zero stint shows Bitcoin regaining upward escape velocity versus policy.
• Bearish cross under zero during a hiking cycle tells you monetary tightening has finally started to bite.
Momentum Exhaustion and Mean-Reversion
• Touches of +50 (or –50) come rarely; they are statistically stretched events. Fade strategies either taking profits or hedging have historically enjoyed positive expectancy.
• Inside-bar candlestick patterns or lower-timeframe bearish engulfings simultaneously with an extreme overbought print make high-probability short scalp setups, especially near weekly resistance. The same logic mirrors for oversold.
Pair Trading / Relative Value
• Combine the oscillator with spreads like BTC versus Nasdaq 100. When both the FED Divergence oscillator and the BTC–NDQ relative-strength line roll south together, the cross-asset confirmation amplifies conviction in a mean-reversion short.
• Swap BTC for miners, altcoins or high-beta equities to test who is the divergence leader.
Event-Driven Tactics
• FOMC days: plot the oscillator on an hourly chart (disable ‘Force Daily TF’). Watch for micro-structural spikes that resolve in the first hour after the statement; rapid flips across zero can front-run post-FOMC swings.
• CPI and NFP prints: extremes reached into the release often mean positioning is one-sided. A reversion toward neutral in the first 24 hours is common.
6. Alerts Suite
Pre-bundled conditions let you automate workflows:
• Bullish / Bearish zero crosses – queue spot or futures entries.
• Standard OB / OS – notify for first contact with actionable zones.
• Extreme OB / OS – prime time to review hedges, take profits or build contrarian swing positions.
7. Parameter Playground
• Shorten ROC Lookback to 14 for tactical traders; lengthen to 90 for macro investors.
• Raise extreme thresholds (for example ±80) when plotting on altcoins that exhibit higher volatility than BTC.
• Try HMA smoothing for responsive yet smooth curves on intraday charts.
• Colour-blind users can easily swap bull and bear palette selections for preferred contrasts.
8. Limitations and Best Practices
• The Fed Funds series is step-wise; it only changes on meeting days. Rapid BTC oscillations in between may dominate the calculation. Keep that perspective when interpreting very high-frequency signals.
• Divergence does not equal causation. Crypto-native catalysts (ETF approvals, hack headlines) can overwhelm macro links temporarily.
• Use in conjunction with classical confirmation tools—order-flow footprints, market-profile ledges, or simple price action to avoid “pure-indicator” traps.
9. Final Thoughts
The FEDFUNDS Rate Divergence Oscillator distills an entire macro narrative monetary policy versus risk sentiment into a single colourful heartbeat. It will not magically predict every pivot, yet it excels at framing market context, spotting stretches and timing regime changes. Treat it as a strategic compass rather than a tactical sniper scope, combine it with sound risk management and multi-factor confirmation, and you will possess a robust edge anchored in the world’s most influential interest-rate benchmark.
Trade consciously, stay adaptive, and let the policy-price tension guide your roadmap.
Price Exhaustion Envelope [BackQuant]Price Exhaustion Envelope
Visual preview of the bands:
What it is
The Price Exhaustion Envelope (PEE) is a multi‑factor overextension detector wrapped inside a dynamic envelope framework. It measures how “tired” a move is by blending price stretch, volume surges, momentum and acceleration, plus optional RSI divergence. The result is a composite exhaustion score that drives both on‑chart signals and the adaptive width of three optional envelope bands around a smoothed baseline. When the score spikes above or below your chosen threshold, the script can flag exhaustion, paint candles, tint the background and fire alerts.
How it works under the hood
Exhaustion score
Price component: distance of close from its mean in standard deviation units.
Volume component: normalized volume pressure that highlights unusual participation.
Momentum component: rate of change and acceleration of price, scaled by their own volatility.
RSI divergence (optional): bullish and bearish divergences gently push the score lower or higher.
Mode control: choose Price, Volume, Momentum or Composite. Composite averages the main pieces for a balanced view.
Energy scale (0 to 100)
The composite score is pushed through a logistic transform to create an “energy” value. High energy (above 70 to 80) signals a move that may be running hot, while very low energy (below 20 to 30) points to exhaustion on the downside.
Envelope engine
Baseline: EMA of price over the main lookback length.
Width: base width is standard deviation times a multiplier.
Type selector:
• Static keeps the width fixed.
• Dynamic expands width in proportion to the absolute exhaustion score.
• Adaptive links width to the energy reading so bands breathe with market “heat.”
Smoothing: a short EMA on the width reduces jitter and keeps bands pleasant to trade around.
Band architecture
You can toggle up to three symmetric bands on each side of the baseline. They default to 1.0, 1.6 and 2.2 multiples of the smoothed width. Soft transparent fills create a layered thermograph of extension. The outermost band often maps to true blow‑off extremes.
On‑chart elements
Baseline line that flips color in real time depending on where price sits.
Up to three upper and lower bands with progressive opacity.
Triangle markers at fresh exhaustion triggers.
Tiny warning glyphs at extreme upper or lower breaches.
Optional bar coloring to visually tag exhausted candles.
Background halo when energy > 80 or < 20 for instant context.
A compact info table showing State, Score, Energy, Momentum score and where price sits inside the envelope (percent).
How to use it in trading
Mean reversion plays
When price pierces the outer band and an exhaustion marker prints, look for reversal candles or lower‑timeframe confirmation to fade the move back toward the baseline.
For conservative entries, wait for the composite score to roll back under the threshold or for energy to drop from extreme to neutral.
Set stops just beyond the extreme levels (use extreme_upper and extreme_lower as natural invalidation points). Targets can be the baseline or the opposite inner band.
Trend continuation with smart pullbacks
In strong trends, the first tag of Band 1 or Band 2 against the dominant direction often offers low‑risk continuation entries. Use energy readings: if energy is low on a pullback during an uptrend, a bounce is more likely.
Combine with RSI divergence: hidden bullish divergence near a lower band in an uptrend can be a powerful confirmation.
Breakout filtering
A breakout that occurs while the composite score is still moderate (not exhausted) has a higher chance of follow‑through. Skip signals when energy is already above 80 and price is punching the outer band, as the move may be late.
Watch env_position (Envelope %) in the table. Breakouts near 40 to 60 percent of the envelope are “healthy,” while those at 95 percent are stretched.
Scaling out and risk control
Use exhaustion alerts to trim positions into strength or weakness.
Trail stops just outside Band 2 or Band 3 to stay in trends while letting the envelope expand in volatile phases.
Multi‑timeframe confluence
Run the script on a higher timeframe to locate exhaustion context, then drill down to a lower timeframe for entries.
Opposite signals across timeframes (daily exhaustion vs. 5‑minute breakout) warn you to reduce size or tighten management.
Key inputs to experiment with
Lookback Period: larger values smooth the score and envelope, ideal for swing trading. Shorter values make it reactive for scalps.
Exhaustion Threshold: raise above 2.0 in choppy assets to cut noise, drop to 1.5 for smooth FX pairs.
Envelope Type: Dynamic is great for crypto spikes, Adaptive shines in stocks where volume and volatility wave together.
RSI Divergence: turn off if you prefer a pure price/volume model or if divergence floods the score in your asset.
Alert set included
Fresh upper exhaustion
Fresh lower exhaustion
Extreme upper breach
Extreme lower breach
RSI bearish divergence
RSI bullish divergence
Hook these to TradingView notifications so you get pinged the moment a move hits exhaustion.
Best practices
Always pair exhaustion signals with structure. Support and resistance, liquidity pools and session opens matter.
Avoid blindly shorting every upper signal in a roaring bull market. Let the envelope type help you filter.
Use the table to sanity‑check: a very high score but mid‑range env_position means the band may still be wide enough to absorb more movement.
Backtest threshold combinations on your instrument. Different tickers carry different volatility fingerprints.
Final note
Price Exhaustion Envelope is a flexible framework, not a turnkey system. It excels as a context layer that tells you when the crowd is pressing too hard or when a move still has fuel. Combine it with sound execution tactics, risk limits and market awareness. Trade safe and let the envelope breathe with the market.
Fibonacci Sequence Moving Average [BackQuant]Fibonacci Sequence Moving Average with Adaptive Oscillator
1. Overview
The Fibonacci Sequence Moving Average indicator is a two‑part trading framework that combines a custom moving average built from the famous Fibonacci number set with a fully featured oscillator, normalisation engine and divergence suite. The moving average half delivers an adaptive trend line that respects natural market rhythms, while the oscillator half translates that trend information into a bounded momentum stream that is easy to read, easy to compare across assets and rich in confluence signals. Everything from weighting logic to colour palettes can be customised, so the tool comfortably fits scalpers zooming into one‑minute candles as well as position traders running multi‑month trend following campaigns.
2. Core Calculation
Fibonacci periods – The default length array is 5, 8, 13, 21, 34. A single multiplier input lets you scale the whole family up or down without breaking the golden‑ratio spacing. For example a multiplier of 3 yields 15, 24, 39, 63, 102.
Component averages – Each period is passed through Simple Moving Average logic to produce five baseline curves (ma1 through ma5).
Weighting methods – You decide how those five values are blended:
• Equal weighting treats every curve the same.
• Linear weighting applies factors 1‑to‑5 so the slowest curve counts five times as much as the fastest.
• Exponential weighting doubles each step for a fast‑reacting yet still smooth line.
• Fibonacci weighting multiplies each curve by its own period value, honouring the spirit of ratio mathematics.
Smoothing engine – The blended average is then smoothed a second time with your choice of SMA, EMA, DEMA, TEMA, RMA, WMA or HMA. A short smoothing length keeps the result lively, while longer lengths create institution‑grade glide paths that act like dynamic support and resistance.
3. Oscillator Construction
Once the smoothed Fib MA is in place, the script generates a raw oscillator value in one of three flavours:
• Distance – Percentage distance between price and the average. Great for mean‑reversion.
• Momentum – Percentage change of the average itself. Ideal for trend acceleration studies.
• Relative – Distance divided by Average True Range for volatility‑aware scaling.
That raw series is pushed through a look‑back normaliser that rescales every reading into a fixed −100 to +100 window. The normalisation window defaults to 100 bars but can be tightened for fast markets or expanded to capture long regimes.
4. Visual Layer
The oscillator line is gradient‑coloured from deep red through sky blue into bright green, so you can spot subtle momentum shifts with peripheral vision alone. There are four horizontal guide lines: Extreme Bear at −50, Bear Threshold at −20, Bull Threshold at +20 and Extreme Bull at +50. Soft fills above and below the thresholds reinforce the zones without cluttering the chart.
The smoothed Fib MA can be plotted directly on price for immediate trend context, and each of the five component averages can be revealed for educational or research purposes. Optional bar‑painting mirrors oscillator polarity, tinting candles green when momentum is bullish and red when momentum is bearish.
5. Divergence Detection
The script automatically looks for four classes of divergences between price pivots and oscillator pivots:
Regular Bullish, signalling a possible bottom when price prints a lower low but the oscillator prints a higher low.
Hidden Bullish, often a trend‑continuation cue when price makes a higher low while the oscillator slips to a lower low.
Regular Bearish, marking potential tops when price carves a higher high yet the oscillator steps down.
Hidden Bearish, hinting at ongoing downside when price posts a lower high while the oscillator pushes to a higher high.
Each event is tagged with an ℝ or ℍ label at the oscillator pivot, colour‑coded for clarity. Look‑back distances for left and right pivots are fully adjustable so you can fine‑tune sensitivity.
6. Alerts
Five ready‑to‑use alert conditions are included:
• Bullish when the oscillator crosses above +20.
• Bearish when it crosses below −20.
• Extreme Bullish when it pops above +50.
• Extreme Bearish when it dives below −50.
• Zero Cross for momentum inflection.
Attach any of these to TradingView notifications and stay updated without staring at charts.
7. Practical Applications
Swing trading trend filter – Plot the smoothed Fib MA on daily candles and only trade in its direction. Enter on oscillator retracements to the 0 line.
Intraday reversal scouting – On short‑term charts let Distance mode highlight overshoots beyond ±40, then fade those moves back to mean.
Volatility breakout timing – Use Relative mode during earnings season or crypto news cycles to spot momentum surges that adjust for changing ATR.
Divergence confirmation – Layer the oscillator beneath price structure to validate double bottoms, double tops and head‑and‑shoulders patterns.
8. Input Summary
• Source, Fibonacci multiplier, weighting method, smoothing length and type
• Oscillator calculation mode and normalisation look‑back
• Divergence look‑back settings and signal length
• Show or hide options for every visual element
• Full colour and line width customisation
9. Best Practices
Avoid using tiny multipliers on illiquid assets where the shortest Fibonacci window may drop under three bars. In strong trends reduce divergence sensitivity or you may see false counter‑trend flags. For portfolio scanning set oscillator to Momentum mode, hide thresholds and colour bars only, which turns the indicator into a heat‑map that quickly highlights leaders and laggards.
10. Final Notes
The Fibonacci Sequence Moving Average indicator seeks to fuse the mathematical elegance of the golden ratio with modern signal‑processing techniques. It is not a standalone trading system, rather a multi‑purpose information layer that shines when combined with market structure, volume analysis and disciplined risk management. Always test parameters on historical data, be mindful of slippage and remember that past performance is never a guarantee of future results. Trade wisely and enjoy the harmony of Fibonacci mathematics in your technical toolkit.
Weighted Multi-Mode Oscillator [BackQuant]Weighted Multi‑Mode Oscillator
1. What Is It?
The Weighted Multi‑Mode Oscillator (WMMO) is a next‑generation momentum tool that turns a dynamically‑weighted moving average into a 0‑100 bounded oscillator.
It lets you decide how each bar is weighted (by volume, volatility, momentum or a hybrid blend) and how the result is normalised (Percentile, Z‑Score or Min‑Max).
The outcome is a self‑adapting gauge that delivers crystal‑clear overbought / oversold zones, divergence clues and regime shifts on any market or timeframe.
2. How It Works
• Dynamic Weight Engine
▪ Volume – emphasises bars with exceptional participation.
▪ Volatility – inverse ATR weighting filters noisy spikes.
▪ Momentum – amplifies strong directional ROC bursts.
▪ Hybrid – equal‑weight blend of the three dimensions.
• Multi‑Mode Smoothing
Choose from 8 MA types (EMA, DEMA, HMA, LINREG, TEMA, RMA, SMA, WMA) plus a secondary smoothing factor to fine‑tune lag vs. responsiveness.
• Normalization Suite
▪ Percentile – rank vs. recent history (context aware).
▪ Z‑Score – standard deviations from mean (statistical extremes).
▪ Min‑Max – scale between rolling high/low (trend friendly).
3. Reading the Oscillator
Zone Default Level Interpretation
Bull > 80 Acceleration; momentum buyers in control
Neutral 20 – 80 Consolidation / no edge
Bear < 20 Exhaustion; sellers dominate
Gradient line/area automatically shades from bright green (strong bull) to deep red (strong bear).
Optional bar‑painting colours price bars the same way for rapid chart scanning.
4. Typical Use‑Cases
Trend Confirmation – Set Weight = Hybrid, Smoothing = EMA. Enter pullbacks only when WMMO > 50 and rising.
Mean Reversion – Weight = Volatility, reduce upper / lower bands to 70 / 30 and fade extremes.
Volume Pulse – Intraday futures: Weight = Volume to catch participation surges before breakout candles.
Divergence Spotting – Compare price highs/lows to WMMO peaks for early reversal clues.
5. Inputs & Styling
Calculation: Source, MA Length, MA Type, Smoothing
Weighting: Volume period & factor, Volatility length, Momentum period
Normalisation: Method, Look‑back, Upper / Lower thresholds
Display: Gradient fills, Threshold lines, Bar‑colouring toggle, Line width & colours
All thresholds, colours and fills are fully customisable inside the settings panel.
6. Built‑In Alerts
WMMO Long – oscillator crosses up through upper threshold.
WMMO Short – oscillator crosses down through lower threshold.
Attach them once and receive push / e‑mail notifications the moment momentum flips.
7. Best Practices
Percentile mode is self‑adaptive and works well across assets; Z‑Score excels in ranges; Min‑Max shines in persistent trends.
Very short MA lengths (< 10) may produce jitter; compensate with higher “Smoothing” or longer look‑backs.
Pair WMMO with structure‑based tools (S/R, trend lines) for higher‑probability trade confluence.
Disclaimer
This script is provided for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always back‑test thoroughly and manage risk before trading live capital.
Custom Portfolio [BackQuant]Custom Portfolio {BackQuant]
Overview
This script turns TradingView into a lightweight portfolio optimizer with institutional-grade analytics and real-time position management capabilities.
Rank up to 15 tickers every bar using a pair-wise relative-strength "league table" that compares each asset against all others through your choice of 12 technical indicators.
Auto-allocate 100% of capital to the single strongest asset and optionally apply dynamic leverage when the aggregate market is trending, with full position tracking and rebalancing logic.
Track performance against a custom buy-and-hold benchmark while watching a fully fledged stats dashboard update in real time, including 15 professional risk metrics.
How it works
Relative-strength engine – Each asset is compared against every other asset with a user-selectable indicator (default: 9/21 EMA cross). The system generates a complete comparison matrix where Asset A vs Asset B, Asset A vs Asset C, and so on, creating strength scores. The summed scores crown a weekly/daily/hourly "winner" that receives the full allocation.
Regime filter – A second indicator applied to TOTAL crypto-market cap (or any symbol you choose) classifies the environment as trending or mean-reverting . Leverage activates only in trending regimes, protecting capital during choppy or declining markets. Choose from indicators like Universal Trend Model, Relative Strength Overlay, Momentum Velocity, or Custom RSI for regime detection.
Capital & position logic – Equity grows linearly when flat and multiplicatively while invested. The system tracks entry prices, calculates returns including leverage adjustments, and handles position transitions seamlessly. Optional intra-trade leverage rebalancing keeps exposure in sync with market conditions, recalculating position sizes as regime conditions change.
Risk & performance analytics – Every confirmed bar records return, drawdown, VaR/CVaR, Sharpe, Sortino, alpha/beta vs your benchmark, gain-to-pain, Calmar, win-rate, Omega ratio, portfolio variance, skewness, and annualized statistics. All metrics render in a professional table for instant inspection with proper annualization based on your selected trading days (252 for traditional markets, 365 for crypto).
Key inputs
Backtest window – Hard-code a start date or let the script run from series' inception with full date range validation.
Asset list (15 slots) – Works with spot, futures, indices, even synthetic spreads (e.g., BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P). The script automatically cleans ticker symbols for display.
Indicator universe – Switch the comparative metric to DEMA, BBPCT, LSMAz adaptive scores, Volatility WMA, DEMA ATR, Median Supertrend, and more proprietary indicators.
With more always being added!
Leverage settings – Max leverage from 1x to any multiple, auto-rebalancing toggle, trend/reversion thresholds with precision controls.
Visual toggles – Show/hide equity curve, rolling drawdown heat-map, daily PnL spikes, position label, advanced metrics table, buy-and-hold comparison equity.
Risk-free rate input – Customize the risk-free rate for accurate Sharpe ratio calculations, supporting both percentage and decimal inputs.
On-chart visuals
Color-coded equity curve with "shadow" offset for depth perception that changes from green (profitable) to red (losing) based on recent performance momentum.
Rolling drawdown strip that fades from light to deep red as losses widen, with customizable maximum drawdown scaling for visual clarity.
Optional daily-return histogram line and zero reference for understanding day-to-day volatility patterns.
Bottom-center table prints the current winning ticker in real time with clean formatting.
Top-right metrics grid updates every bar with 15 key performance indicators formatted to three decimal places for precision.
Benchmark overlay showing buy-and-hold performance of your selected index (default: SPX) for relative performance comparison.
Typical workflow
Add the indicator on a blank chart (overlay off).
Populate ticker slots with the assets you actually trade from your broker's symbol list.
Pick your momentum or mean-reversion metric and a regime filter that matches your market hypothesis.
Set max leverage (1 = spot only) and decide if you want dynamic rebalancing.
Press the little " L " on the price axis to view the equity curve in log scale for better long-term visualization.
Enable the metrics table to monitor Sharpe, Sortino, and drawdown in real time.
Iterate through different asset combinations and indicator settings; compare performance vs buy-and-hold; refine until you find robust parameters.
Who is it for?
Systematic crypto traders looking for a one-click, cross-sectional rotation model with professional risk management.
Portfolio quants who need rapid prototyping without leaving TradingView or exporting to Python/R.
Swing traders wanting an at-a-glance health check of their multi-coin basket with instant position signals.
Fund managers requiring detailed performance attribution and risk metrics for client reporting.
Researchers backtesting momentum and mean-reversion strategies across multiple assets simultaneously.
Important notes & tips
Set Trading Days in a Year to 252 for traditional markets; 365 for 24/7 crypto to ensure accurate annualization.
CAGR and Sharpe assume the backtest start date you choose—short windows can inflate stats, so test across multiple market cycles.
Leverage is theoretical; always confirm your broker's margin rules and account for funding costs not modeled here.
The script is computationally heavy at 15 assets due to the N×N comparison matrix—reduce the list or lengthen the timeframe if you hit execution limits.
Best results often come from mixing assets with different volatility profiles rather than highly correlated instruments.
The regime filter symbol can be changed from CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL to any broad market index that represents your asset universe.
Kase Convergence Divergence [BackQuant]Kase Convergence Divergence
The Kase Convergence Divergence is a sophisticated oscillator designed to measure directional market strength through the lens of volatility-adjusted log return structures. Inspired by Cynthia Kase’s work on statistical momentum and price projection ranges, this unique indicator offers a hybrid framework that merges signal processing, multi-length sweep logic, and adaptive smoothing techniques.
Unlike traditional momentum oscillators like MACD or RSI, which rely on static moving average differences, KCD introduces a dual-process system combining:
Kase-style statistical range projection (via log returns and volatility),
A sweeping loop of lookback lengths for robustness,
First and second derivative modes to capture both velocity and acceleration of price movement.
Core Logic & Computation
The KCD calculation is centered on two volatility-normalized transforms:
KSDI Up: Measures how far the current high has moved relative to a past low, normalized by return volatility.
KSDI Down: Measures how far the current low has moved relative to a past high, also normalized.
For every length in a user-defined sweep range (e.g., 25–35), both KSDI_up and KSDI_dn are computed, and their maximum values across the loop are retained. The difference between these two max values produces the raw signal:
KPO (Kase Projection Oscillator): Measures directional skew.
KCD (Kase Convergence Divergence): Defined as KPO – MA(KPO) — similar in spirit to MACD but structurally different.
Users can choose to visualize either the first derivative (KPO) , or the second derivative (KCD) , depending on market conditions or strategy style.
Key Features
✅ Multi-Length Sweep Logic: Improves signal reliability by aggregating statistical range projections across a set of lookbacks.
✅ Advanced Smoothing Modes: Supports DEMA, HMA, TEMA, LINREG, WMA and more for dynamic adaptation.
✅ Dual Derivative Modes: Choose between speed (first derivative) or smoothness (second derivative) to fit your trading regime.
✅ Color-Encoded Signal Bands: Heatmap-style oscillator coloring enhances visual feedback on trend strength.
✅ Candlestick Painting: Optional bar coloring makes it easy to spot trend shifts on the main chart.
✅ Adaptive Fill Zones: Green and red fills between the oscillator and zero line help distinguish bullish and bearish regimes at a glance.
Practical Applications
📈 Trend Confirmation: Use KCD as a secondary confirmation layer after breakout or pullback entries.
📉 Momentum Shifts: Crossover and crossunder of the zero line highlight potential regime changes.
📊 Strategy Filters: Incorporate into algos to avoid trendless or mean-reverting environments.
🧪 Derivative Switching: Flip between KPO and KCD modes depending on whether you want to measure acceleration or deceleration of price flow.
Alerts & Signals
Two built-in alerts help you catch regime shifts in real time:
Long Signal: Triggered when the selected oscillator crosses above zero.
Short Signal: Triggered when it crosses below zero.
These events can be used to generate entries, exits, or trend validation cues in multi-layer systems.
Conclusion
The Kase Convergence Divergence goes beyond traditional oscillators by offering a volatility-normalized, derivative-aware signal engine with enhanced visual dynamics. Its sweeping architecture and dynamic fill logic make it especially powerful for identifying trending environments, filtering chop, and adding statistical rigor to your trading toolkit.
Whether you’re a discretionary trader seeking precision, or a quant looking to model more robust return structures, KCD offers a creative yet analytically grounded solution.
Momentum Regression [BackQuant]Momentum Regression
The Momentum Regression is an advanced statistical indicator built to empower quants, strategists, and technically inclined traders with a robust visual and quantitative framework for analyzing momentum effects in financial markets. Unlike traditional momentum indicators that rely on raw price movements or moving averages, this tool leverages a volatility-adjusted linear regression model (y ~ x) to uncover and validate momentum behavior over a user-defined lookback window.
Purpose & Design Philosophy
Momentum is a core anomaly in quantitative finance — an effect where assets that have performed well (or poorly) continue to do so over short to medium-term horizons. However, this effect can be noisy, regime-dependent, and sometimes spurious.
The Momentum Regression is designed as a pre-strategy analytical tool to help you filter and verify whether statistically meaningful and tradable momentum exists in a given asset. Its architecture includes:
Volatility normalization to account for differences in scale and distribution.
Regression analysis to model the relationship between past and present standardized returns.
Deviation bands to highlight overbought/oversold zones around the predicted trendline.
Statistical summary tables to assess the reliability of the detected momentum.
Core Concepts and Calculations
The model uses the following:
Independent variable (x): The volatility-adjusted return over the chosen momentum period.
Dependent variable (y): The 1-bar lagged log return, also adjusted for volatility.
A simple linear regression is performed over a large lookback window (default: 1000 bars), which reveals the slope and intercept of the momentum line. These values are then used to construct:
A predicted momentum trendline across time.
Upper and lower deviation bands , representing ±n standard deviations of the regression residuals (errors).
These visual elements help traders judge how far current returns deviate from the modeled momentum trend, similar to Bollinger Bands but derived from a regression model rather than a moving average.
Key Metrics Provided
On each update, the indicator dynamically displays:
Momentum Slope (β₁): Indicates trend direction and strength. A higher absolute value implies a stronger effect.
Intercept (β₀): The predicted return when x = 0.
Pearson’s R: Correlation coefficient between x and y.
R² (Coefficient of Determination): Indicates how well the regression line explains the variance in y.
Standard Error of Residuals: Measures dispersion around the trendline.
t-Statistic of β₁: Used to evaluate statistical significance of the momentum slope.
These statistics are presented in a top-right summary table for immediate interpretation. A bottom-right signal table also summarizes key takeaways with visual indicators.
Features and Inputs
✅ Volatility-Adjusted Momentum : Reduces distortions from noisy price spikes.
✅ Custom Lookback Control : Set the number of bars to analyze regression.
✅ Extendable Trendlines : For continuous visualization into the future.
✅ Deviation Bands : Optional ±σ multipliers to detect abnormal price action.
✅ Contextual Tables : Help determine strength, direction, and significance of momentum.
✅ Separate Pane Design : Cleanly isolates statistical momentum from price chart.
How It Helps Traders
📉 Quantitative Strategy Validation:
Use the regression results to confirm whether a momentum-based strategy is worth pursuing on a specific asset or timeframe.
🔍 Regime Detection:
Track when momentum breaks down or reverses. Slope changes, drops in R², or weak t-stats can signal regime shifts.
📊 Trade Filtering:
Avoid false positives by entering trades only when momentum is both statistically significant and directionally favorable.
📈 Backtest Preparation:
Before running costly simulations, use this tool to pre-screen assets for exploitable return structures.
When to Use It
Before building or deploying a momentum strategy : Test if momentum exists and is statistically reliable.
During market transitions : Detect early signs of fading strength or reversal.
As part of an edge-stacking framework : Combine with other filters such as volatility compression, volume surges, or macro filters.
Conclusion
The Momentum Regression indicator offers a powerful fusion of statistical analysis and visual interpretation. By combining volatility-adjusted returns with real-time linear regression modeling, it helps quantify and qualify one of the most studied and traded anomalies in finance: momentum.
Rolling Log Returns [BackQuant]Rolling Log Returns
The Rolling Log Returns indicator is a versatile tool designed to help traders, quants, and data-driven analysts evaluate the dynamics of price changes using logarithmic return analysis. Widely adopted in quantitative finance, log returns offer several mathematical and statistical advantages over simple returns, making them ideal for backtesting, portfolio optimization, volatility modeling, and risk management.
What Are Log Returns?
In quantitative finance, logarithmic returns are defined as:
ln(Pₜ / Pₜ₋₁)
or for rolling periods:
ln(Pₜ / Pₜ₋ₙ)
where P represents price and n is the rolling lookback window.
Log returns are preferred because:
They are time additive : returns over multiple periods can be summed.
They allow for easier statistical modeling , especially when assuming normally distributed returns.
They behave symmetrically for gains and losses, unlike arithmetic returns.
They normalize percentage changes, making cross-asset or cross-timeframe comparisons more consistent.
Indicator Overview
The Rolling Log Returns indicator computes log returns either on a standard (1-period) basis or using a rolling lookback period , allowing users to adapt it to short-term trading or long-term trend analysis.
It also supports a comparison series , enabling traders to compare the return structure of the main charted asset to another instrument (e.g., SPY, BTC, etc.).
Core Features
✅ Return Modes :
Normal Log Returns : Measures ln(price / price ), ideal for day-to-day return analysis.
Rolling Log Returns : Measures ln(price / price ), highlighting price drift over longer horizons.
✅ Comparison Support :
Compare log returns of the primary instrument to another symbol (like an index or ETF).
Useful for relative performance and market regime analysis .
✅ Moving Averages of Returns :
Smooth noisy return series with customizable MA types: SMA, EMA, WMA, RMA, and Linear Regression.
Applicable to both primary and comparison series.
✅ Conditional Coloring :
Returns > 0 are colored green ; returns < 0 are red .
Comparison series gets its own unique color scheme.
✅ Extreme Return Detection :
Highlight unusually large price moves using upper/lower thresholds.
Visually flags abnormal volatility events such as earnings surprises or macroeconomic shocks.
Quantitative Use Cases
🔍 Return Distribution Analysis :
Gain insight into the statistical properties of asset returns (e.g., skewness, kurtosis, tail behavior).
📉 Risk Management :
Use historical return outliers to define drawdown expectations, stress tests, or VaR simulations.
🔁 Strategy Backtesting :
Apply rolling log returns to momentum or mean-reversion models where compounding and consistent scaling matter.
📊 Market Regime Detection :
Identify periods of consistent overperformance/underperformance relative to a benchmark asset.
📈 Signal Engineering :
Incorporate return deltas, moving average crossover of returns, or threshold-based triggers into machine learning pipelines or rule-based systems.
Recommended Settings
Use Normal mode for high-frequency trading signals.
Use Rolling mode for swing or trend-following strategies.
Compare vs. a broad market index (e.g., SPY or QQQ ) to extract relative strength insights.
Set upper and lower thresholds around ±5% for spotting major volatility days.
Conclusion
The Rolling Log Returns indicator transforms raw price action into a statistically sound return series—equipping traders with a professional-grade lens into market behavior. Whether you're conducting exploratory data analysis, building factor models, or visually scanning for outliers, this indicator integrates seamlessly into a modern quant's toolbox.
Wavelet Filter with Adaptive Upsampling [BackQuant]Wavelet Filter with Adaptive Upsampling
The Wavelet Filter with Adaptive Upsampling is an advanced filtering and signal reconstruction tool designed to enhance the analysis of financial time series data. It combines wavelet transforms with adaptive upsampling techniques to filter and reconstruct price data, making it ideal for capturing subtle market movements and enhancing trend detection. This system uses high-pass and low-pass filters to decompose the price series into different frequency components, applying adaptive thresholding to eliminate noise and preserve relevant signal information.
Shout out to Loxx for the Least Squares fitting of trigonometric series and Quinn and Fernandes algorithm for finding frequency
www.tradingview.com
Key Features
1. Frequency Decomposition with High-Pass and Low-Pass Filters:
The indicator decomposes the input time series using high-pass and low-pass filters to separate the high-frequency (detail) and low-frequency (trend) components of the data. This decomposition allows for a more accurate analysis of underlying trends, while mitigating the impact of noise.
2. Soft Thresholding for Noise Reduction:
A soft thresholding function is applied to the high-frequency component, allowing for the reduction of noise while retaining significant market signals. This function adjusts the coefficients of the high-frequency data, removing small fluctuations and leaving only the essential price movements.
3. Adaptive Upsampling Process:
The upsampling process in this script can be customized using different methods: sinusoidal upsampling, advanced upsampling, and simple upsampling. Each method serves a unique purpose:
Sinusoidal Upsample uses a sine wave to interpolate between data points, providing a smooth transition.
Advanced Upsample utilizes a Quinn-Fernandes algorithm to estimate frequency and apply more sophisticated interpolation techniques, adapting to the market’s cyclical behavior.
Simple Upsample linearly interpolates between data points, providing a basic upsampling technique for less complex analysis.
4. Reconstruction of Filtered Signal:
The indicator reconstructs the filtered signal by summing the high and low-frequency components after upsampling. This allows for a detailed yet smooth representation of the original time series, which can be used for analyzing underlying trends in the market.
5. Visualization of Reconstructed Data:
The reconstructed series is plotted, showing how the upsampling and filtering process enhances the clarity of the price movements. Additionally, the script provides the option to visualize the log returns of the reconstructed series as a histogram, with positive returns shown in green and negative returns in red.
6. Cumulative Series and Trend Detection:
A cumulative series is plotted to visualize the compounded effect of the filtered and reconstructed data. This feature helps traders track the overall performance of the asset over time, identifying whether the asset is following a sustained upward or downward trend.
7. Adaptive Thresholding and Noise Estimation:
The system estimates the noise level in the high-frequency component and applies an adaptive thresholding process based on the standard deviation of the downsampled data. This ensures that only significant price movements are retained, further refining the trend analysis.
8. Customizable Parameters for Flexibility:
Users can customize the following parameters to adjust the behavior of the indicator:
Frequency and Phase Shift: Control the periodicity of the wavelet transformation and the phase of the upsampling function.
Upsample Factor: Adjust the level of interpolation applied during the upsampling process.
Smoothing Period: Determine the length of time used to smooth the signal, helping to filter out short-term fluctuations.
References
Enhancing Cross-Sectional Currency Strategies with Context-Aware Learning to Rank
arxiv.org
Daubechies Wavelet - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
Quinn Fernandes Fourier Transform of Filtered Price by Loxx
Note on Usage for Mean-Reversion Strategy
This indicator is primarily designed for trend-following strategies. However, by taking the inverse of the signals, it can be adapted for mean-reversion strategies. This involves buying underperforming assets and selling outperforming ones. Caution: This method may not work effectively with highly correlated assets, as the price movements between correlated assets tend to mirror each other, limiting the effectiveness of mean-reversion strategies.
Final Thoughts
The Wavelet Filter with Adaptive Upsampling is a powerful tool for traders seeking to improve their understanding of market trends and noise. By using advanced wavelet decomposition and adaptive upsampling, this system offers a clearer, more refined picture of price movements, enhancing trend-following strategies. It’s particularly useful for detecting subtle shifts in market momentum and reconstructing price data in a way that removes noise, providing more accurate insights into market conditions.
Volume Momentum [BackQuant]Volume Momentum
The Volume Momentum indicator is designed to help traders identify shifts in market momentum based on volume data. By analyzing the relative volume momentum, this indicator provides insights into whether the market is gaining strength (uptrend) or losing momentum (downtrend). The strategy uses a combination of percentile-based volume normalization, weighted moving averages (WMA), and exponential moving averages (EMA) to assess volume trends.
The system focuses on the relationship between price and volume, utilizing normalized volume data to highlight key market changes. This approach allows traders to focus on volume-driven price movements, helping them to capture momentum shifts early.
Key Features
1. Volume Normalization and Percentile Calculation:
The signed volume (positive when the close is higher than the open, negative when the close is lower) is normalized against the rolling average volume. This normalized volume is then subjected to a percentile interpolation, allowing for a robust statistical measure of how the current volume compares to historical data. The percentile level is customizable, with 50 representing the median.
2. Weighted and Smoothed Moving Averages for Trend Detection:
The normalized volume is smoothed using weighted moving averages (WMA) and exponential moving averages (EMA). These smoothing techniques help eliminate noise, providing a clearer view of the underlying momentum. The WMA filters out short-term fluctuations, while the EMA ensures that the most recent data points have a higher weight, making the system more responsive to current market conditions.
3. Trend Reversal Detection:
The indicator detects momentum shifts by evaluating whether the volume momentum crosses above or below zero. A positive volume momentum indicates a potential uptrend, while a negative momentum suggests a possible downtrend. These trend reversals are identified through crossover and crossunder conditions, triggering alerts when significant changes occur.
4. Dynamic Trend Background and Bar Coloring:
The script offers customizable background coloring based on the trend direction. When volume momentum is positive, the background is colored green, indicating a bullish trend. When volume momentum is negative, the background is colored red, signaling a bearish trend. Additionally, the bars themselves can be colored based on the trend, further helping traders quickly visualize market momentum.
5. Alerts for Momentum Shifts:
The system provides real-time alerts for traders to monitor when volume momentum crosses a critical threshold (zero), signaling a trend reversal. The alerts notify traders when the market momentum turns bullish or bearish, assisting them in making timely decisions.
6. Customizable Parameters for Flexible Usage:
Users can fine-tune the behavior of the indicator by adjusting various parameters:
Volume Rolling Mean: The period used to calculate the average volume for normalization.
Percentile Interpolation Length: Defines the range over which the percentile is calculated.
Percentile Level: Determines the percentile threshold (e.g., 50 for the median).
WMA and Smoothing Periods: Control the smoothing and response time of the indicator.
7. Trend Background Visualization and Trend-Based Bar Coloring:
The background fill is shaded according to whether the volume momentum is positive or negative, providing a visual cue to indicate market strength. Additionally, bars can be color-coded to highlight the trend, making it easier to see the trend’s direction without needing to analyze numerical data manually.
8. Note on Mean-Reversion Strategy:
If you take the inverse of the signals, this indicator can be adapted for a mean-reversion strategy. Instead of following the trend, the strategy would involve buying assets that are underperforming and selling assets that are overperforming, based on volume momentum. However, it’s important to note that this approach may not work effectively on highly correlated assets, as their price movements may be too similar, reducing the effectiveness of the mean-reversion strategy.
Final Thoughts
The Volume Momentum indicator offers a comprehensive approach to analyzing volume-based momentum shifts in the market. By using volume normalization, percentile interpolation, and smoothed moving averages, this system helps identify the strength and direction of market trends. Whether used for trend-following or adapted for mean-reversion, this tool provides traders with actionable insights into the market’s volume-driven movements, improving decision-making and portfolio management.
40 Ticker Cross-Sectional Z-Scores [BackQuant]40 Ticker Cross-Sectional Z-Scores
BackQuant’s 40 Ticker Cross-Sectional Z-Scores is a powerful portfolio management strategy that analyzes the relative performance of up to 40 different assets, comparing them on a cross-sectional basis to identify the top and bottom performers. This indicator computes Z-scores for each asset based on their log returns and evaluates them relative to the mean and standard deviation over a rolling window. The Z-scores represent how far an asset's return deviates from the average, and these values are used to rank the assets, allowing for dynamic asset allocation based on performance.
By focusing on the strongest-performing assets and avoiding the weakest, this strategy aims to enhance returns while managing risk. Additionally, by adjusting for standard deviations, the system offers a risk-adjusted method of ranking assets, making it suitable for traders who want to dynamically allocate capital based on performance metrics rather than just price movements.
Key Features
1. Cross-Sectional Z-Score Calculation:
The system calculates Z-scores for 40 different assets, evaluating their log returns against the mean and standard deviation over a rolling window. This enables users to assess the relative performance of each asset dynamically, highlighting which assets are performing better or worse compared to their historical norms. The Z-score is a useful statistical tool for identifying outliers in asset performance.
2. Asset Ranking and Allocation:
The system ranks assets based on their Z-scores and allocates capital to the top performers. It identifies the top and bottom assets, and traders can allocate capital to the top-performing assets, ensuring that their portfolio is aligned with the best performers. Conversely, the bottom assets are removed from the portfolio, reducing exposure to underperforming assets.
3. Rolling Window for Mean and Standard Deviation Calculations:
The Z-scores are calculated based on rolling means and standard deviations, making the system adaptive to changing market conditions. This rolling calculation window allows the strategy to adjust to recent performance trends and minimize the impact of outdated data.
4. Mean and Standard Deviation Visualization:
The script provides real-time visualizations of the mean (x̄) and standard deviation (σ) of asset returns, helping traders quickly identify trends and volatility in their portfolio. These visual indicators are useful for understanding the current market environment and making more informed allocation decisions.
5. Top & Bottom Performer Tables:
The system generates tables that display the top and bottom performers, ranked by their Z-scores. Traders can quickly see which assets are outperforming and underperforming. These tables provide clear and actionable insights, helping traders make informed decisions about which assets to include in their portfolio.
6. Customizable Parameters:
The strategy allows traders to customize several key parameters, including:
Rolling Calculation Window: Set the window size for the rolling mean and standard deviation calculations.
Top & Bottom Tickers: Choose how many of the top and bottom assets to display and allocate capital to.
Table Orientation: Select between vertical or horizontal table formats to suit the user’s preference.
7. Forward Test & Out-of-Sample Testing:
The system includes out-of-sample forward tests, ensuring that the strategy is evaluated based on real-time performance, not just historical data. This forward testing approach helps validate the robustness of the strategy in dynamic market conditions.
8. Visual Feedback and Alerts:
The system provides visual feedback on the current asset rankings and allocations, with dynamic labels and plots on the chart. Additionally, users receive alerts when allocations change, keeping them informed of important adjustments.
9. Risk Management via Z-Scores and Std Dev:
The system’s approach to asset selection is based on Z-scores, which normalize performance relative to the historical mean. By incorporating standard deviation, it accounts for the volatility and risk associated with each asset. This allows for more precise risk management and portfolio construction.
10. Note on Mean Reversion Strategy:
If you take the inverse of the signals provided by this indicator, the strategy can be used for mean-reversion rather than trend-following. This would involve buying the underperforming assets and selling the outperforming ones. However, it's important to note that this approach does not work well with highly correlated assets, as the relationship between the assets could result in the same directional movement, undermining the effectiveness of the mean-reversion strategy.
References
www.uts.edu.au
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
www.cmegroup.com
Final Thoughts
The 40 Ticker Cross-Sectional Z-Scores strategy offers a data-driven approach to portfolio management, dynamically allocating capital based on the relative performance of assets. By using Z-scores and standard deviations, this strategy ensures that capital is directed to the strongest performers while avoiding weaker assets, ultimately improving the risk-adjusted returns of the portfolio. Whether you’re focused on trend-following or looking to explore mean-reversion strategies, this flexible system can be tailored to suit your investment goals.
Cross-Sectional Altcoin Portfolio [BackQuant]Cross-Sectional Altcoin Portfolio
Introducing BackQuant's Cross-Sectional Altcoin Portfolio, a sophisticated trading system designed to dynamically rotate among a selection of major altcoins. This portfolio strategy compares multiple assets based on real-time performance metrics, such as momentum and trend strength, to select the strongest-performing coins. It uses a combination of adaptive scoring and regime filters to ensure the portfolio is aligned with favorable market conditions, minimizing exposure during unfavorable trends.
This system offers a comprehensive solution for crypto traders who want to optimize portfolio allocation based on cross-asset performance, while also accounting for market regimes. It allows traders to compare multiple altcoins dynamically and allocate capital to the top performers, ensuring the portfolio is always positioned in the most promising assets.
Key Features
1. Dynamic Asset Rotation:
The portfolio constantly evaluates the relative strength of 10 major altcoins: SOLUSD, RUNEUSD, ORDIUSD, DOGEUSDT, ETHUSD, ENAUSDT, RAYUSDT, PENDLEUSD, UNIUSD, and KASUSDT.
Using a ratio matrix, the system selects the strongest asset based on momentum and trend performance, dynamically adjusting the allocation as market conditions change.
2. Long-Only Portfolio with Cash Reserve:
The portfolio only takes long positions or remains in cash. The system does not enter short positions, reducing the risk of exposure during market downturns.
A powerful regime filter ensures the system is inactive during periods of market weakness, defined by the Universal Trend Performance Indicator (TPI) and other market data.
3. Equity Tracking:
The script provides real-time visualizations of portfolio equity compared to buy-and-hold strategies.
Users can compare the performance of the portfolio against holding individual assets (e.g., BTC, ETH) and see the benefits of the dynamic allocation.
4. Performance Metrics:
The system provides key performance metrics such as:
Sharpe Ratio: Measures risk-adjusted returns.
Sortino Ratio: Focuses on downside risk.
Omega Ratio: Evaluates returns relative to risk.
Maximum Drawdown: The maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough.
These metrics allow traders to assess the effectiveness of the strategy versus simply holding the assets.
5. Regime Filter:
The system incorporates a regime filter that evaluates the overall market trend using the TPI and other indicators. If the market is in a downtrend, the system exits positions and moves to cash, avoiding exposure to negative market conditions.
Users can customize the thresholds for the long and short trends to fit their risk tolerance.
6. Customizable Parameters:
Traders can adjust key parameters, such as the backtest start date, starting capital, leverage multiplier, and visualization options, including equity plot colors and line widths.
The system supports different levels of customizations for traders to optimize their strategies.
7. Equity and Buy-and-Hold Comparisons:
This script enables traders to see the side-by-side comparison of the portfolio’s equity curve and the equity curve of a buy-and-hold strategy for each asset.
The comparison allows users to evaluate the performance of the dynamic strategy versus holding the altcoins in isolation.
8. Forward Test (Out-of-Sample Testing):
The system includes a note that the portfolio provides out-of-sample forward tests, ensuring the robustness of the strategy. This is crucial for assessing the portfolio's performance beyond historical backtesting and validating its ability to adapt to future market conditions.
9. Visual Feedback:
The system offers detailed visual feedback on the current asset allocation and performance. Candles are painted according to the trend of the selected assets, and key metrics are displayed in real-time, including the momentum scores for each asset.
10. Alerts and Notifications:
Real-time alerts notify traders when the system changes asset allocations or moves to cash, ensuring they stay informed about portfolio adjustments.
Visual labels on the chart provide instant feedback on which asset is currently leading the portfolio allocation.
How the Rotation Works
The portfolio evaluates 10 different assets and calculates a momentum score for each based on their price action. This score is processed through a ratio matrix, which compares the relative performance of each asset.
Based on the rankings, the portfolio allocates capital to the top performers, ensuring it rotates between the strongest assets while minimizing exposure to underperforming assets.
If no asset shows strong performance, the system defaults to cash to preserve capital.
Final Thoughts
BackQuant’s Cross-Sectional Altcoin Portfolio provides a dynamic and systematic approach to altcoin portfolio management. By employing real-time performance metrics, adaptive scoring, and regime filters, this strategy aims to optimize returns while minimizing exposure to market downturns. The inclusion of out-of-sample forward tests ensures that the system remains robust in live market conditions, making it an ideal tool for crypto traders seeking to enhance their portfolio's performance with a data-driven, momentum-based approach.
Performance Metrics With Bracketed Rebalacing [BackQuant]Performance Metrics With Bracketed Rebalancing
The Performance Metrics With Bracketed Rebalancing script offers a robust method for assessing portfolio performance, integrating advanced portfolio metrics with different rebalancing strategies. With a focus on adaptability, the script allows traders to monitor and adjust portfolio weights, equity, and other key financial metrics dynamically. This script provides a versatile approach for evaluating different trading strategies, considering factors like risk-adjusted returns, volatility, and the impact of portfolio rebalancing.
Please take the time to read the following:
Key Features and Benefits of Portfolio Methods
Bracketed Rebalancing:
Bracketed Rebalancing is an advanced strategy designed to trigger portfolio adjustments when an asset's weight surpasses a predefined threshold. This approach minimizes overexposure to any single asset while maintaining flexibility in response to market changes. The strategy is particularly beneficial for mitigating risks that arise from significant asset weight fluctuations. The following image illustrates how this method reacts when asset weights cross the threshold:
Daily Rebalancing:
Unlike the bracketed method, Daily Rebalancing adjusts portfolio weights every trading day, ensuring consistent asset allocation. This method aims for a more even distribution of portfolio weights, making it a suitable option for traders who prefer less sensitivity to individual asset volatility. Here's an example of Daily Rebalancing in action:
No Rebalancing:
For traders who prefer a passive approach, the "No Rebalancing" option allows the portfolio to remain static, without any adjustments to asset weights. This method may appeal to long-term investors or those who believe in the inherent stability of their selected assets. Here’s how the portfolio looks when no rebalancing is applied:
Portfolio Weights Visualization:
One of the standout features of this script is the visual representation of portfolio weights. With adjustable settings, users can track the current allocation of assets in real-time, making it easier to analyze shifts and trends. The following image shows the real-time weight distribution across three assets:
Rolling Drawdown Plot:
Managing drawdown risk is a critical aspect of portfolio management. The Rolling Drawdown Plot visually tracks the drawdown over time, helping traders monitor the risk exposure and performance relative to the peak equity levels. This feature is essential for assessing the portfolio's resilience during market downturns:
Daily Portfolio Returns:
Tracking daily returns is crucial for evaluating the short-term performance of the portfolio. The script allows users to plot daily portfolio returns to gain insights into daily profit or loss, helping traders stay updated on their portfolio’s progress:
Performance Metrics
Net Profit (%):
This metric represents the total return on investment as a percentage of the initial capital. A positive net profit indicates that the portfolio has gained value over the evaluation period, while a negative value suggests a loss. It's a fundamental indicator of overall portfolio performance.
Maximum Drawdown (Max DD):
Maximum Drawdown measures the largest peak-to-trough decline in portfolio value during a specified period. It quantifies the most significant loss an investor would have experienced if they had invested at the highest point and sold at the lowest point within the timeframe. A smaller Max DD indicates better risk management and less exposure to significant losses.
Annual Mean Returns (% p/y):
This metric calculates the average annual return of the portfolio over the evaluation period. It provides insight into the portfolio's ability to generate returns on an annual basis, aiding in performance comparison with other investment opportunities.
Annual Standard Deviation of Returns (% p/y):
This measure indicates the volatility of the portfolio's returns on an annual basis. A higher standard deviation signifies greater variability in returns, implying higher risk, while a lower value suggests more stable returns.
Variance:
Variance is the square of the standard deviation and provides a measure of the dispersion of returns. It helps in understanding the degree of risk associated with the portfolio's returns.
Sortino Ratio:
The Sortino Ratio is a variation of the Sharpe Ratio that only considers downside risk, focusing on negative volatility. It is calculated as the difference between the portfolio's return and the minimum acceptable return (MAR), divided by the downside deviation. A higher Sortino Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance, emphasizing the importance of avoiding negative returns.
Sharpe Ratio:
The Sharpe Ratio measures the portfolio's excess return per unit of total risk, as represented by standard deviation. It is calculated by subtracting the risk-free rate from the portfolio's return and dividing by the standard deviation of the portfolio's excess return. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates more favorable risk-adjusted returns.
Omega Ratio:
The Omega Ratio evaluates the probability of achieving returns above a certain threshold relative to the probability of experiencing returns below that threshold. It is calculated by dividing the cumulative probability of positive returns by the cumulative probability of negative returns. An Omega Ratio greater than 1 indicates a higher likelihood of achieving favorable returns.
Gain-to-Pain Ratio:
The Gain-to-Pain Ratio measures the return per unit of risk, focusing on the magnitude of gains relative to the severity of losses. It is calculated by dividing the total gains by the total losses experienced during the evaluation period. A higher ratio suggests a more favorable balance between reward and risk.
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Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) (% p/y):
CAGR represents the mean annual growth rate of the portfolio over a specified period, assuming the investment has been compounding over that time. It provides a smoothed annual rate of growth, eliminating the effects of volatility and offering a clearer picture of long-term performance.
Portfolio Alpha (% p/y):
Portfolio Alpha measures the portfolio's performance relative to a benchmark index, adjusting for risk. It is calculated using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and represents the excess return of the portfolio over the expected return based on its beta and the benchmark's performance. A positive alpha indicates outperformance, while a negative alpha suggests underperformance.
Portfolio Beta:
Portfolio Beta assesses the portfolio's sensitivity to market movements, indicating its exposure to systematic risk. A beta greater than 1 suggests the portfolio is more volatile than the market, while a beta less than 1 indicates lower volatility. Beta is used to understand the portfolio's potential for gains or losses in relation to market fluctuations.
Skewness of Returns:
Skewness measures the asymmetry of the return distribution. A positive skew indicates a distribution with a long right tail, suggesting more frequent small losses and fewer large gains. A negative skew indicates a long left tail, implying more frequent small gains and fewer large losses. Understanding skewness helps in assessing the likelihood of extreme outcomes.
Value at Risk (VaR) 95th Percentile:
VaR at the 95th percentile estimates the maximum potential loss over a specified period, given a 95% confidence level. It provides a threshold value such that there is a 95% probability that the portfolio will not experience a loss greater than this amount.
Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR):
CVaR, also known as Expected Shortfall, measures the average loss exceeding the VaR threshold. It provides insight into the tail risk of the portfolio, indicating the expected loss in the worst-case scenarios beyond the VaR level.
These metrics collectively offer a comprehensive view of the portfolio's performance, risk exposure, and efficiency. By analyzing these indicators, investors can make informed decisions, balancing potential returns with acceptable levels of risk.
Conclusion
The Performance Metrics With Bracketed Rebalancing script provides a comprehensive framework for evaluating and optimizing portfolio performance. By integrating advanced metrics, adaptive rebalancing strategies, and visual analytics, it empowers traders to make informed decisions in managing their investment portfolios. However, it's crucial to consider the implications of rebalancing strategies, as academic research indicates that predictable rebalancing can lead to market impact costs. Therefore, adopting flexible and less predictable rebalancing approaches may enhance portfolio performance and reduce associated costs.
PDF-MA Supertrend [BackQuant]PDF-MA Supertrend
The PDF-MA Supertrend combines the innovative Probability Density Function (PDF) smoothing with the widely popular Supertrend methodology, creating a robust tool for identifying trends and generating actionable trading signals. This indicator is designed to provide precise entries and exits by dynamically adapting to market volatility while visualizing long and short opportunities directly on the chart.
Core Feature: PDF Smoothing
At the foundation of this indicator is the PDF smoothing technique, which applies a Probability Density Function to calculate a smoothed moving average. This method allows the indicator to assign adaptive weights to data points, making it responsive to market changes without overreacting to short-term volatility.
Key parameters include:
Variance: Controls the spread of the PDF weighting. A smaller variance results in sharper responses, while a larger variance smooths out the curve.
Mean: Shifts the PDF’s center, allowing traders to tweak how weights are distributed around the data points.
Smoothing Method: Offers the choice between EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and SMA (Simple Moving Average) for blending the PDF-smoothed data with traditional moving average methods.
By combining these parameters, the PDF smoothing creates a moving average that effectively captures underlying trends.
Supertrend: Adaptive Trend and Volatility Tracking
The Supertrend is a well-known volatility-based indicator that dynamically adjusts to market conditions using the ATR (Average True Range). In this script, the PDF-smoothed moving average acts as the price input, making the Supertrend calculation more adaptive and precise.
Key Supertrend Features:
ATR Period: Determines the lookback period for calculating market volatility.
Factor: Multiplies the ATR to set the distance between the Supertrend and the price. A higher factor creates wider bands, filtering out smaller price movements, while a lower factor captures tighter trends.
Dynamic Direction: The Supertrend flips its direction based on price interactions with the calculated upper and lower bands:
Uptrend : When the price is above the Supertrend, the direction turns bullish.
Downtrend : When the price is below the Supertrend, the direction turns bearish.
This combination of PDF smoothing and Supertrend calculation ensures that trends are detected with greater accuracy, while volatility filters out market noise.
Long and Short Signal Generation
The PDF-MA Supertrend generates actionable trading signals by detecting transitions in the trend direction:
Long Signal (𝕃): Triggered when the trend transitions from bearish to bullish. This is visually represented with a green triangle below the price bars.
Short Signal (𝕊): Triggered when the trend transitions from bullish to bearish. This is marked with a red triangle above the price bars.
These signals provide traders with clear entry and exit points, ensuring they can capitalize on emerging trends while avoiding false signals.
Customizable Visualization Options
The indicator offers a range of visualization settings to help traders interpret the data with ease:
Show Supertrend: Option to toggle the visibility of the Supertrend line.
Candle Coloring: Automatically colors candlesticks based on the trend direction:
Green for long trends.
Red for short trends.
Long and Short Signals (𝕃 + 𝕊): Displays long (𝕃) and short (𝕊) signals directly on the chart for quick identification of trade opportunities.
Line Color Customization: Allows users to customize the colors for long and short trends.
Alert Conditions
To ensure traders never miss an opportunity, the PDF-MA Supertrend includes built-in alerts for trend changes:
Long Signal Alert: Notifies when a bullish trend is identified.
Short Signal Alert: Notifies when a bearish trend is identified.
These alerts can be configured for real-time notifications via SMS, email, or push notifications, making it easier to stay updated on market movements.
Suggested Parameter Adjustments
The indicator’s effectiveness can be fine-tuned using the following guidelines:
Variance:
For low-volatility assets (e.g., indices): Use a smaller variance (1.0–1.5) for smoother trends.
For high-volatility assets (e.g., cryptocurrencies): Use a larger variance (1.5–2.0) to better capture rapid price changes.
ATR Factor:
A higher factor (e.g., 2.0) is better suited for long-term trend-following strategies.
A lower factor (e.g., 1.5) captures shorter-term trends.
Smoothing Period:
Shorter periods provide more reactive signals but may increase noise.
Longer periods offer stability and better alignment with significant trends.
Experimentation is encouraged to find the optimal settings for specific assets and trading strategies.
Trading Applications
The PDF-MA Supertrend is a versatile indicator suited to a variety of trading approaches:
Trend Following : Use the Supertrend line and signals to follow market trends and ride sustained price movements.
Reversal Trading : Spot potential trend reversals as the Supertrend flips direction.
Volatility Analysis : Adjust the ATR factor to filter out minor price fluctuations or capture sharp movements.
Final Thoughts
The PDF-MA Supertrend combines the precision of Probability Density Function smoothing with the adaptability of the Supertrend methodology, offering traders a powerful tool for identifying trends and volatility. With its customizable parameters, actionable signals, and built-in alerts, this indicator is an excellent choice for traders seeking a robust and reliable system for trend detection and entry/exit timing.
As always, backtesting and incorporating this indicator into a broader strategy are recommended for optimal results.
Radial Basis Kernal ATR [BackQuant]Radial Basis Kernel ATR
The Radial Basis Kernel ATR is a trading indicator that combines the classic Average True Range (ATR) with advanced Radial Basis Function (RBF) kernel smoothing . This innovative approach creates a highly adaptive and precise tool for detecting volatility, identifying trends, and providing dynamic support and resistance levels.
With its configurable parameters and ability to adjust to market conditions, this indicator offers traders a robust framework for making informed decisions across various assets and timeframes.
Key Feature: Radial Basis Function Kernel Smoothing
The Radial Basis Function (RBF) kernel is at the heart of this indicator, applying sophisticated mathematical techniques to smooth price data and calculate an enhanced version of ATR. By weighting data points dynamically, the RBF kernel ensures that recent price movements are given appropriate emphasis without overreacting to short-term noise.
The RBF kernel uses a gamma factor to control the degree of smoothing, making it highly adaptable to different asset classes and market conditions:
Gamma Factor Adjustment :
For low-volatility data (e.g., indices), a smaller gamma (0.05–0.1) ensures smoother trends and avoids overly sharp responses.
For high-volatility data (e.g., cryptocurrencies), a larger gamma (0.1–0.2) captures the increased price fluctuations while maintaining stability.
Experimentation is Key : Traders are encouraged to backtest and visually compare different gamma values to find the optimal setting for their specific asset and strategy.
The gamma factor dynamically adjusts based on the variance of the source data, ensuring the indicator remains effective across a wide range of market conditions.
Average True Range (ATR) with Dynamic Bands
The ATR is a widely used volatility measure that captures the degree of price movement over a specific period. This indicator enhances the traditional ATR by integrating the RBF kernel, resulting in a smoothed and adaptive ATR calculation.
Dynamic bands are created around the RBF kernel output using a user-defined ATR factor , offering valuable insights into potential support and resistance zones. These bands expand and contract based on market volatility, providing a visual representation of potential price movement.
Moving Average Confluence
For additional confirmation, the indicator includes the option to overlay a moving average on the smoothed ATR. Traders can choose from several moving average types, such as EMA , SMA , or Hull , and adjust the lookback period to suit their strategy. This feature helps identify broader trends and potential confluence areas, making the indicator even more versatile.
Long and Short Trend Detection
The indicator provides long and short signals based on the directional movement of the smoothed ATR:
Long Signal : Triggered when the ATR crosses above its previous value, indicating bullish momentum.
Short Signal : Triggered when the ATR crosses below its previous value, signaling bearish momentum.
These trend signals are visually highlighted on the chart with green and red bar coloring (optional), providing clear and actionable insights.
Customization Options
The Radial Basis Kernel ATR offers extensive customization options, allowing traders to tailor the indicator to their preferences:
RBF Kernel Settings
Source : Select the price data (e.g., close, high, low) used for the kernel calculation.
Kernel Length : Define the lookback period for the RBF kernel, controlling the smoothing effect.
Gamma Factor : Adjust the smoothing sensitivity, with smaller values for smoother trends and larger values for responsiveness.
ATR Settings
ATR Period : Set the period for ATR calculation, with shorter periods capturing more short-term volatility and longer periods providing a broader view.
ATR Factor : Adjust the scaling of ATR bands for dynamic support and resistance levels.
Confluence Settings
Moving Average Type : Choose from various moving average types for additional trend confirmation.
Moving Average Period : Define the lookback period for the moving average overlay.
Visualization
Trend Coloring : Enable or disable bar coloring based on trend direction (green for long, red for short).
Background Highlighting : Add optional background shading to emphasize long and short trends visually.
Line Width : Customize the thickness of the plotted ATR line for better visibility.
Alerts and Automation
To help traders stay on top of market movements, the indicator includes built-in alerts for trend changes:
Kernel ATR Trend Up : Triggered when the ATR indicates a bullish trend.
Kernel ATR Trend Down : Triggered when the ATR signals a bearish trend.
These alerts ensure traders never miss important opportunities, providing timely notifications directly to their preferred device.
Suggested Gamma Values
The effectiveness of the gamma factor depends on the asset type and the selected kernel length:
Low Volatility Assets (e.g., indices): Use a smaller gamma factor (approximately 0.05–0.1) for smoother trends.
High Volatility Assets (e.g., crypto): Use a larger gamma factor (approximately 0.1–0.2) to capture sharper price movements.
Experimentation : Fine-tune the gamma factor using backtests or visual comparisons to optimize for specific assets and strategies.
Trading Applications
The Radial Basis Kernel ATR is a versatile tool suitable for various trading styles and strategies:
Trend Following : Use the smoothed ATR and dynamic bands to identify and follow trends with confidence.
Reversal Trading : Spot potential reversals by observing interactions with dynamic ATR bands and moving average confluence.
Volatility Analysis : Analyze market volatility to adjust risk management strategies or position sizing.
Final Thoughts
The Radial Basis Kernel ATR combines advanced mathematical techniques with the practical utility of ATR, offering traders a powerful and adaptive tool for volatility analysis and trend detection. Its ability to dynamically adjust to market conditions through the RBF kernel and gamma factor makes it a unique and indispensable part of any trader's toolkit.
By combining sophisticated smoothing , dynamic bands , and customizable visualization , this indicator enhances the ability to read market conditions and make more informed trading decisions. As always, backtesting and incorporating it into a broader strategy are recommended for optimal results.
PDF MA For Loop [BackQuant]PDF MA For Loop
Introducing the PDF MA For Loop, an innovative trading indicator that combines Probability Density Function (PDF) smoothing with a dynamic for-loop scoring mechanism. This advanced tool provides traders with precise trend-following signals, helping to identify long and short opportunities with improved clarity and adaptability to market conditions.
If you would like to check out the stand alone PDF Moving Average:
Core Concept: Probability Density Function (PDF) Smoothing
The PDF smoothing method is a unique approach that applies adaptive weights to price data based on a Probability Density Function. This ensures that recent data points receive appropriate emphasis while maintaining a smooth transition across the data set. The result is a moving average that is not only smoother but also more responsive to market changes.
Key parameters in PDF smoothing:
Variance : Controls the spread of the PDF, where a higher value results in broader smoothing and a lower value makes the moving average more sensitive.
Mean : Centers the PDF around a specific value, influencing the weighting and responsiveness of the smoothing process.
By combining PDF smoothing with traditional moving averages (EMA or SMA), the indicator creates a hybrid signal that balances responsiveness and reliability.
For-Loop Scoring Mechanism
At the heart of this indicator is the for-loop scoring mechanism, which evaluates the smoothed PDF moving average over a defined range of historical data points. This process assigns a score to the current market condition based on whether the PDF moving average is greater than or less than previous values.
Long Signal: A long signal is generated when the score exceeds the Long Threshold (default set at 40), indicating upward momentum.
Short Signal: A short signal is triggered when the score crosses below the Short Threshold (default set at -10), suggesting potential downward momentum.
This dynamic scoring system ensures that the indicator remains adaptive, capturing trends and shifts in market sentiment effectively.
Customization Options
The PDF MA For Loop includes a variety of customizable settings to fit different trading styles and strategies:
Calculation Settings
Price Source : Select the input price for the calculation (default is the close price).
Smoothing Method : Choose between EMA or SMA for the additional smoothing layer, providing flexibility to adapt to market conditions.
Smoothing Period : Adjust the lookback period for the smoothing function, with shorter periods providing more sensitivity and longer periods offering greater stability.
Variance & Mean : Fine-tune the PDF function parameters to control the weighting of the smoothing process.
Signal Settings
Thresholds : Customize the upper and lower thresholds to define the sensitivity of the long and short signals.
For Loop Range : Set the range of historical data points analyzed by the for-loop, influencing the depth of the scoring mechanism.
UI Settings
Signal Line Width: Adjust the thickness of the plotted signal line for better visibility.
Candle Coloring: Enable or disable the coloring of candlesticks based on trend direction (green for long, red for short, gray for neutral).
Background Coloring: Add background shading to highlight long and short signals for an enhanced visual experience.
Alerts and Automation
The indicator includes built-in alert conditions to notify traders of important market events:
Long Signal Alert: Notifies when the score exceeds the upper threshold, indicating a bullish trend.
Short Signal Alert: Notifies when the score crosses below the lower threshold, signaling a bearish trend.
These alerts can be configured for real-time notifications, allowing traders to respond quickly to market changes without constant chart monitoring.
Trading Applications
The PDF MA For Loop is versatile and can be applied across various trading strategies and market conditions:
Trend Following: The PDF smoothing method combined with for-loop scoring makes this indicator particularly effective for identifying and following trends.
Reversal Trading: By observing the thresholds and score, traders can anticipate potential reversals when the trend shifts from long to short (or vice versa).
Risk Management: The dynamic thresholds and scoring provide clear signals, allowing traders to enter and exit trades with greater confidence and precision.
Final Thoughts
The PDF MA For Loopis merges advanced mathematical concepts with practical trading tools. By leveraging Probability Density Function smoothing and a dynamic for-loop scoring system, it provides traders with clear, actionable signals while adapting to market conditions.
Whether you’re looking for an edge in trend-following strategies or seeking precision in identifying reversals, this indicator offers the flexibility and power to enhance your trading decisions
As always, backtesting and integrating the PDF MA For Loop into a comprehensive trading strategy is recommended for optimal performance, as no single indicator should be used in isolation.
Thus following all of the key points here are some sample backtests on the 1D Chart
Disclaimer: Backtests are based off past results, and are not indicative of the future.
INDEX:BTCUSD
INDEX:ETHUSD
BINANCE:SOLUSD
Machine Learning RSI [BackQuant]Machine Learning RSI
The Machine Learning RSI is a cutting-edge trading indicator that combines the power of Relative Strength Index (RSI) with Machine Learning (ML) clustering techniques to dynamically determine overbought and oversold thresholds. This advanced indicator adapts to market conditions in real-time, offering traders a robust tool for identifying optimal entry and exit points with increased precision.
Core Concept: Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI is a well-known momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements, oscillating between 0 and 100. Typically, RSI values above 70 are considered overbought, and values below 30 are considered oversold. However, static thresholds may not be effective in all market conditions.
This script enhances the RSI by integrating a dynamic thresholding system powered by Machine Learning clustering, allowing it to adapt thresholds based on historical RSI behavior and market context.
Machine Learning Clustering for Dynamic Thresholds
The Machine Learning (ML) component uses clustering to calculate dynamic thresholds for overbought and oversold levels. Instead of relying on fixed RSI levels, this indicator clusters historical RSI values into three groups using a percentile-based initialization and iterative optimization:
Cluster 1: Represents lower RSI values (typically associated with oversold conditions).
Cluster 2: Represents mid-range RSI values.
Cluster 3: Represents higher RSI values (typically associated with overbought conditions).
Dynamic thresholds are determined as follows:
Long Threshold: The upper centroid value of Cluster 3.
Short Threshold: The lower centroid value of Cluster 1.
This approach ensures that the indicator adapts to the current market regime, providing more accurate signals in volatile or trending conditions.
Smoothing Options for RSI
To further enhance the effectiveness of the RSI, this script allows traders to apply various smoothing methods to the RSI calculation, including:
Simple Moving Average (SMA)
Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
Weighted Moving Average (WMA)
Hull Moving Average (HMA)
Linear Regression (LINREG)
Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA)
Triple Exponential Moving Average (TEMA)
Adaptive Linear Moving Average (ALMA)
T3 Moving Average
Traders can select their preferred smoothing method and adjust the smoothing period to suit their trading style and market conditions. The option to smooth the RSI reduces noise and makes the indicator more reliable for detecting trends and reversals.
Long and Short Signals
The indicator generates long and short signals based on the relationship between the RSI value and the dynamic thresholds:
Long Signals: Triggered when the RSI crosses above the long threshold, signaling bullish momentum.
Short Signals: Triggered when the RSI falls below the short threshold, signaling bearish momentum.
These signals are dynamically adjusted to reflect real-time market conditions, making them more robust than static RSI signals.
Visualization and Clustering Insights
The Machine Learning RSI provides an intuitive and visually rich interface, including:
RSI Line: Plotted in real-time, color-coded based on its position relative to the dynamic thresholds (green for long, red for short, gray for neutral).
Dynamic Threshold Lines: The script plots the long and short thresholds calculated by the ML clustering process, providing a clear visual reference for overbought and oversold levels.
Cluster Plots: Each RSI cluster is displayed with distinct colors (green, orange, and red) to give traders insights into how RSI values are grouped and how the dynamic thresholds are derived.
Customization Options
The Machine Learning RSI is highly customizable, allowing traders to tailor the indicator to their preferences:
RSI Settings : Adjust the RSI length, source price, and smoothing method to match your trading strategy.
Threshold Settings : Define the range and step size for clustering thresholds, allowing you to fine-tune the clustering process.
Optimization Settings : Control the performance memory, maximum clustering steps, and maximum data points for ML calculations to ensure optimal performance.
UI Settings : Customize the appearance of the RSI plot, dynamic thresholds, and cluster plots. Traders can also enable or disable candle coloring based on trend direction.
Alerts and Automation
To assist traders in staying on top of market movements, the script includes alert conditions for key events:
Long Signal: When the RSI crosses above the long threshold.
Short Signal: When the RSI crosses below the short threshold.
These alerts can be configured to notify traders in real-time, enabling timely decisions without constant chart monitoring.
Trading Applications
The Machine Learning RSI is versatile and can be applied to various trading strategies, including:
Trend Following: By dynamically adjusting thresholds, this indicator is effective in identifying and following trends in real-time.
Reversal Trading: The ML clustering process helps identify extreme RSI levels, offering reliable signals for reversals.
Range-Bound Trading: The dynamic thresholds adapt to market conditions, making the indicator suitable for trading in sideways markets where static thresholds often fail.
Final Thoughts
The Machine Learning RSI represents a significant advancement in RSI-based trading indicators. By integrating Machine Learning clustering techniques, this script overcomes the limitations of static thresholds, providing dynamic, adaptive signals that respond to market conditions in real-time. With its robust visualization, customizable settings, and alert capabilities, this indicator is a powerful tool for traders seeking to enhance their momentum analysis and improve decision-making.
As always, thorough backtesting and integration into a broader trading strategy are recommended to maximize the effectiveness!
PDF Smoothed Moving Average [BackQuant]PDF Smoothed Moving Average
Introducing BackQuant’s PDF Smoothed Moving Average (PDF-MA) — an innovative trading indicator that applies Probability Density Function (PDF) weighting to moving averages, creating a unique, trend-following tool that offers adaptive smoothing to price movements. This advanced indicator gives traders an edge by blending PDF-weighted values with conventional moving averages, helping to capture trend shifts with enhanced clarity.
Core Concept: Probability Density Function (PDF) Smoothing
The Probability Density Function (PDF) provides a mathematical approach to applying adaptive weighting to data points based on a specified variance and mean. In the PDF-MA indicator, the PDF function is used to weight price data, adding a layer of probabilistic smoothing that enhances the detection of trend strength while reducing noise.
The PDF weights are controlled by two key parameters:
Variance: Determines the spread of the weights, where higher values spread out the weighting effect, providing broader smoothing.
Mean : Centers the weights around a particular price value, influencing the trend’s directionality and sensitivity.
These PDF weights are applied to each price point over the chosen period, creating an adaptive and smooth moving average that more closely reflects the underlying price trend.
Blending PDF with Standard Moving Averages
To further improve the PDF-MA, this indicator combines the PDF-weighted average with a traditional moving average, selected by the user as either an Exponential Moving Average (EMA) or Simple Moving Average (SMA). This blended approach leverages the strengths of each method: the responsiveness of PDF smoothing and the robustness of conventional moving averages.
Smoothing Method: Traders can choose between EMA and SMA for the additional moving average layer. The EMA is more responsive to recent prices, while the SMA provides a consistent average across the selected period.
Smoothing Period: Controls the length of the lookback period, affecting how sensitive the average is to price changes.
The result is a PDF-MA that provides a reliable trend line, reflecting both the PDF weighting and traditional moving average values, ideal for use in trend-following and momentum-based strategies.
Trend Detection and Candle Coloring
The PDF-MA includes a built-in trend detection feature that dynamically colors candles based on the direction of the smoothed moving average:
Uptrend: When the PDF-MA value is increasing, the trend is considered bullish, and candles are colored green, indicating potential buying conditions.
Downtrend: When the PDF-MA value is decreasing, the trend is considered bearish, and candles are colored red, signaling potential selling or shorting conditions.
These color-coded candles provide a quick visual reference for the trend direction, helping traders make real-time decisions based on the current market trend.
Customization and Visualization Options
This indicator offers a range of customization options, allowing traders to tailor it to their specific preferences and trading environment:
Price Source : Choose the price data for calculation, with options like close, open, high, low, or HLC3.
Variance and Mean : Fine-tune the PDF weighting parameters to control the indicator’s sensitivity and responsiveness to price data.
Smoothing Method : Select either EMA or SMA to customize the conventional moving average layer used in conjunction with the PDF.
Smoothing Period : Set the lookback period for the moving average, with a longer period providing more stability and a shorter period offering greater sensitivity.
Candle Coloring : Enable or disable candle coloring based on trend direction, providing additional clarity in identifying bullish and bearish phases.
Trading Applications
The PDF Smoothed Moving Average can be applied across various trading strategies and timeframes:
Trend Following : By smoothing price data with PDF weighting, this indicator helps traders identify long-term trends while filtering out short-term noise.
Reversal Trading : The PDF-MA’s trend coloring feature can help pinpoint potential reversal points by showing shifts in the trend direction, allowing traders to enter or exit positions at optimal moments.
Swing Trading : The PDF-MA provides a clear trend line that swing traders can use to capture intermediate price moves, following the trend direction until it shifts.
Final Thoughts
The PDF Smoothed Moving Average is a highly adaptable indicator that combines probabilistic smoothing with traditional moving averages, providing a nuanced view of market trends. By integrating PDF-based weighting with the flexibility of EMA or SMA smoothing, this indicator offers traders an advanced tool for trend analysis that adapts to changing market conditions with reduced lag and increased accuracy.
Whether you’re trading trends, reversals, or swings, the PDF-MA offers valuable insights into the direction and strength of price movements, making it a versatile addition to any trading strategy.
