BTC Power Law Valuation BandsBTC Power Law Rainbow
A long-term valuation framework for Bitcoin based on Power Law growth — designed to help identify macro accumulation and distribution zones, aligned with long-term investor behavior.
🔍 What Is a Power Law?
A Power Law is a mathematical relationship where one quantity varies as a power of another. In this model:
Price ≈ a × (Time)^b
It captures the non-linear, exponentially slowing growth of Bitcoin over time. Rather than using linear or cyclical models, this approach aligns with how complex systems, such as networks or monetary adoption curves, often grow — rapidly at first, and then more slowly, but persistently.
🧠 Why Power Law for BTC?
Bitcoin:
Has finite supply and increasing adoption.
Operates as a monetary network , where Metcalfe’s Law and power laws naturally emerge.
Exhibits exponential growth over logarithmic time when viewed on a log-log chart .
This makes it uniquely well-suited for power law modeling.
🌈 How to Use the Valuation Bands
The central white line represents the modeled fair value according to the power law.
Colored bands represent deviations from the model in logarithmic space, acting as macro zones:
🔵 Lower Bands: Deep value / Accumulation zones.
🟡 Mid Bands: Fair value.
🔴 Upper Bands: Euphoria / Risk of macro tops.
📐 Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Alignment
Accumulation: Occurs when price consolidates near lower bands — often aligning with institutional positioning.
Markup: As price re-enters or ascends the bands, we often see breakout behavior and trend expansion.
Distribution: When price extends above upper bands, potential for exit liquidity creation and distribution events.
Reversion: Historically, price mean-reverts toward the model — rarely staying outside the bands for long.
This makes the model useful for:
Cycle timing
Long-term DCA strategy zones
Identifying value dislocations
Filtering short-term noise
⚠️ Disclaimer
This tool is for educational and informational purposes only . It is not financial advice. The power law model is a non-predictive, mathematical framework and does not guarantee future price movements .
Always use additional tools, risk management, and your own judgment before making trading or investment decisions.
Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency)
Pi Cycle Top Indicator - mychaelgoPlots the original Pi Cycle Top moving averages and marks bars where the 111DMA is rising and crosses above the 350DMA×2, often coinciding with Bitcoin cycle peaks. Includes a label with the signal price.
Bitcoin Power Law OscillatorThis is the oscillator version of the script. The main body of the script can be found here.
Understanding the Bitcoin Power Law Model
Also called the Long-Term Bitcoin Power Law Model. The Bitcoin Power Law model tries to capture and predict Bitcoin's price growth over time. It assumes that Bitcoin's price follows an exponential growth pattern, where the price increases over time according to a mathematical relationship.
By fitting a power law to historical data, the model creates a trend line that represents this growth. It then generates additional parallel lines (support and resistance lines) to show potential price boundaries, helping to visualize where Bitcoin’s price could move within certain ranges.
In simple terms, the model helps us understand Bitcoin's general growth trajectory and provides a framework to visualize how its price could behave over the long term.
The Bitcoin Power Law has the following function:
Power Law = 10^(a + b * log10(d))
Consisting of the following parameters:
a: Power Law Intercept (default: -17.668).
b: Power Law Slope (default: 5.926).
d: Number of days since a reference point(calculated by counting bars from the reference point with an offset).
Explanation of the a and b parameters:
Roughly explained, the optimal values for the a and b parameters are determined through a process of linear regression on a log-log scale (after applying a logarithmic transformation to both the x and y axes). On this log-log scale, the power law relationship becomes linear, making it possible to apply linear regression. The best fit for the regression is then evaluated using metrics like the R-squared value, residual error analysis, and visual inspection. This process can be quite complex and is beyond the scope of this post.
Applying vertical shifts to generate the other lines:
Once the initial power-law is created, additional lines are generated by applying a vertical shift. This shift is achieved by adding a specific number of days (or years in case of this script) to the d-parameter. This creates new lines perfectly parallel to the initial power law with an added vertical shift, maintaining the same slope and intercept.
In the case of this script, shifts are made by adding +365 days, +2 * 365 days, +3 * 365 days, +4 * 365 days, and +5 * 365 days, effectively introducing one to five years of shifts. This results in a total of six Power Law lines, as outlined below (From lowest to highest):
Base Power Law Line (no shift)
1-year shifted line
2-year shifted line
3-year shifted line
4-year shifted line
5-year shifted line
The six power law lines:
Bitcoin Power Law Oscillator
This publication also includes the oscillator version of the Bitcoin Power Law. This version applies a logarithmic transformation to the price, Base Power Law Line, and 5-year shifted line using the formula: log10(x) .
The log-transformed price is then normalized using min-max normalization relative to the log-transformed Base Power Law Line and 5-year shifted line with the formula:
normalized price = log(close) - log(Base Power Law Line) / log(5-year shifted line) - log(Base Power Law Line)
Finally, the normalized price was multiplied by 5 to map its value between 0 and 5, aligning with the shifted lines.
Interpretation of the Bitcoin Power Law Model:
The shifted Power Law lines provide a framework for predicting Bitcoin's future price movements based on historical trends. These lines are created by applying a vertical shift to the initial Power Law line, with each shifted line representing a future time frame (e.g., 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, etc.).
By analyzing these shifted lines, users can make predictions about minimum price levels at specific future dates. For example, the 5-year shifted line will act as the main support level for Bitcoin’s price in 5 years, meaning that Bitcoin’s price should not fall below this line, ensuring that Bitcoin will be valued at least at this level by that time. Similarly, the 2-year shifted line will serve as the support line for Bitcoin's price in 2 years, establishing that the price should not drop below this line within that time frame.
On the other hand, the 5-year shifted line also functions as an absolute resistance , meaning Bitcoin's price will not exceed this line prior to the 5-year mark. This provides a prediction that Bitcoin cannot reach certain price levels before a specific date. For example, the price of Bitcoin is unlikely to reach $100,000 before 2021, and it will not exceed this price before the 5-year shifted line becomes relevant. After 2028, however, the price is predicted to never fall below $100,000, thanks to the support established by the shifted lines.
In essence, the shifted Power Law lines offer a way to predict both the minimum price levels that Bitcoin will hit by certain dates and the earliest dates by which certain price points will be reached. These lines help frame Bitcoin's potential future price range, offering insight into long-term price behavior and providing a guide for investors and analysts. Lets examine some examples:
Example 1:
In Example 1 it can be seen that point A on the 5-year shifted line acts as major resistance . Also it can be seen that 5 years later this price level now corresponds to the Base Power Law Line and acts as a major support at point B(Note: Vertical yearly grid lines have been added for this purpose👍).
Example 2:
In Example 2, the price level at point C on the 3-year shifted line becomes a major support three years later at point D, now aligning with the Base Power Law Line.
Finally, let's explore some future price predictions, as this script provides projections on the weekly timeframe :
Example 3:
In Example 3, the Bitcoin Power Law indicates that Bitcoin's price cannot surpass approximately $808K before 2030 as can be seen at point E, while also ensuring it will be at least $224K by then (point F).
Bitcoin Expectile Model [LuxAlgo]The Bitcoin Expectile Model is a novel approach to forecasting Bitcoin, inspired by the popular Bitcoin Quantile Model by PlanC. By fitting multiple Expectile regressions to the price, we highlight zones of corrections or accumulations throughout the Bitcoin price evolution.
While we strongly recommend using this model with the Bitcoin All Time History Index INDEX:BTCUSD on the 3 days or weekly timeframe using a logarithmic scale, this model can be applied to any asset using the daily timeframe or superior.
Please note that here on TradingView, this model was solely designed to be used on the Bitcoin 1W chart, however, it can be experimented on other assets or timeframes if of interest.
🔶 USAGE
The Bitcoin Expectile Model can be applied similarly to models used for Bitcoin, highlighting lower areas of possible accumulation (support) and higher areas that allow for the anticipation of potential corrections (resistance).
By default, this model fits 7 individual Expectiles Log-Log Regressions to the price, each with their respective expectile ( tau ) values (here multiplied by 100 for the user's convenience). Higher tau values will return a fit closer to the higher highs made by the price of the asset, while lower ones will return fits closer to the lower prices observed over time.
Each zone is color-coded and has a specific interpretation. The green zone is a buy zone for long-term investing, purple is an anomaly zone for market bottoms that over-extend, while red is considered the distribution zone.
The fits can be extrapolated, helping to chart a course for the possible evolution of Bitcoin prices. Users can select the end of the forecast as a date using the "Forecast End" setting.
While the model is made for Bitcoin using a log scale, other assets showing a tendency to have a trend evolving in a single direction can be used. See the chart above on QQQ weekly using a linear scale as an example.
The Start Date can also allow fitting the model more locally, rather than over a large range of prices. This can be useful to identify potential shorter-term support/resistance areas.
🔶 DETAILS
🔹 On Quantile and Expectile Regressions
Quantile and Expectile regressions are similar; both return extremities that can be used to locate and predict prices where tops/bottoms could be more likely to occur.
The main difference lies in what we are trying to minimize, which, for Quantile regression, is commonly known as Quantile loss (or pinball loss), and for Expectile regression, simply Expectile loss.
You may refer to external material to go more in-depth about these loss functions; however, while they are similar and involve weighting specific prices more than others relative to our parameter tau, Quantile regression involves minimizing a weighted mean absolute error, while Expectile regression minimizes a weighted squared error.
The squared error here allows us to compute Expectile regression more easily compared to Quantile regression, using Iteratively reweighted least squares. For Quantile regression, a more elaborate method is needed.
In terms of comparison, Quantile regression is more robust, and easier to interpret, with quantiles being related to specific probabilities involving the underlying cumulative distribution function of the dataset; on the other expectiles are harder to interpret.
🔹 Trimming & Alterations
It is common to observe certain models ignoring very early Bitcoin price ranges. By default, we start our fit at the date 2010-07-16 to align with existing models.
By default, the model uses the number of time units (days, weeks...etc) elapsed since the beginning of history + 1 (to avoid NaN with log) as independent variable, however the Bitcoin All Time History Index INDEX:BTCUSD do not include the genesis block, as such users can correct for this by enabling the "Correct for Genesis block" setting, which will add the amount of missed bars from the Genesis block to the start oh the chart history.
🔶 SETTINGS
Start Date: Starting interval of the dataset used for the fit.
Correct for genesis block: When enabled, offset the X axis by the number of bars between the Bitcoin genesis block time and the chart starting time.
🔹 Expectiles
Toggle: Enable fit for the specified expectile. Disabling one fit will make the script faster to compute.
Expectile: Expectile (tau) value multiplied by 100 used for the fit. Higher values will produce fits that are located near price tops.
🔹 Forecast
Forecast End: Time at which the forecast stops.
🔹 Model Fit
Iterations Number: Number of iterations performed during the reweighted least squares process, with lower values leading to less accurate fits, while higher values will take more time to compute.
Mutanabby_AI __ OSC+ST+SQZMOMMutanabby_AI OSC+ST+SQZMOM: Multi-Component Trading Analysis Tool
Overview
The Mutanabby_AI OSC+ST+SQZMOM indicator combines three proven technical analysis components into a unified trading system, providing comprehensive market analysis through integrated oscillator signals, trend identification, and volatility assessment.
Core Components
Wave Trend Oscillator (OSC): Identifies overbought and oversold market conditions using exponential moving average calculations. Key threshold levels include overbought zones at 60 and 53, with oversold areas marked at -60 and -53. Crossover signals between the two oscillator lines generate entry opportunities, displayed as colored circles on the chart for easy identification.
Supertrend Indicator (ST): Determines overall market direction using Average True Range calculations with a 2.5 factor and 10-period ATR configuration. Green lines indicate confirmed uptrends while red lines signal downtrend conditions. The indicator automatically adapts to market volatility changes, providing reliable trend identification across different market environments.
Squeeze Momentum (SQZMOM): Compares Bollinger Bands with Keltner Channels to identify consolidation periods and potential breakout scenarios. Black squares indicate squeeze conditions representing low volatility periods, green triangles signal confirmed upward breakouts, and red triangles mark downward breakout confirmations.
Signal Generation Logic
Long Entry Conditions:
Green triangles from Squeeze Momentum component
Supertrend line transitioning to green
Bullish crossovers in Wave Trend Oscillator from oversold territory
Short Entry Conditions:
Red triangles from Squeeze Momentum component
Supertrend line transitioning to red
Bearish crossovers in Wave Trend Oscillator from overbought territory
Automated Risk Management
The indicator incorporates comprehensive risk management through ATR-based calculations. Stop losses are automatically positioned at 3x ATR distance from entry points, while three progressive take profit targets are established at 1x, 2x, and 3x ATR multiples respectively. All risk management levels are clearly displayed on the chart using colored lines and informative labels.
When trend direction changes, the system automatically clears previous risk levels and generates new calculations, ensuring all risk parameters remain current and relevant to existing market conditions.
Alert and Notification System
Comprehensive alert framework includes trend change notifications with complete trade setup details, squeeze release alerts for breakout opportunity identification, and trend weakness warnings for active position management. Alert messages contain specific trading pair information, timeframe specifications, and all relevant entry and exit level data.
Implementation Guidelines
Timeframe Selection: Higher timeframes including 4-hour and daily charts provide the most reliable signals for position trading strategies. One-hour charts demonstrate good performance for day trading applications, while 15-30 minute timeframes enable scalping approaches with enhanced risk management requirements.
Risk Management Integration: Limit individual trade risk to 1-2% of total capital using the automatically calculated stop loss levels for precise position sizing. Implement systematic profit-taking at each target level while adjusting stop loss positions to protect accumulated gains.
Market Volatility Adaptation: The indicator's ATR-based calculations automatically adjust to changing market volatility conditions. During high volatility periods, risk management levels appropriately widen, while low volatility conditions result in tighter risk parameters.
Optimization Techniques
Combine indicator signals with fundamental support and resistance level analysis for enhanced signal validation. Monitor volume patterns to confirm breakout strength, particularly when Squeeze Momentum signals develop. Maintain awareness of scheduled economic events that may influence market behavior independent of technical indicator signals.
The multi-component design provides internal signal confirmation through multiple alignment requirements, significantly reducing false signal occurrence while maintaining reasonable trade frequency for active trading strategies.
Technical Specifications
The Wave Trend Oscillator utilizes customizable channel length (default 10) and average length (default 21) parameters for optimal market sensitivity. Supertrend calculations employ ATR period of 10 with factor multiplier of 2.5 for balanced signal quality. Squeeze Momentum analysis uses Bollinger Band length of 20 periods with 2.0 multiplication factor, combined with Keltner Channel length of 20 periods and 1.5 multiplication factor.
Conclusion
The Mutanabby_AI OSC+ST+SQZMOM indicator provides a systematic approach to technical market analysis through the integration of proven oscillator, trend, and momentum components. Success requires thorough understanding of each element's functionality and disciplined implementation of proper risk management principles.
Practice with demo trading accounts before live implementation to develop familiarity with signal interpretation and trade management procedures. The indicator's systematic approach effectively reduces emotional decision-making while providing clear, objective guidelines for trade entry, management, and exit strategies across various market conditions.
On-Chain Signals [LuxAlgo]The On-Chain Signals indicator uses fundamental blockchain metrics to provide traders with an objective technical view of their favorite cryptocurrencies.
It uses IntoTheBlock datasets integrated within TradingView to generate four key signals: Net Network Growth, In the Money, Concentration, and Large Transactions.
Together, these four signals provide traders with an overall directional bias of the market. All of the data can be visualized as a gauge, table, historical plot, or average.
🔶 USAGE
The main goal of this tool is to provide an overall directional bias based on four blockchain signals, each with three possible biases: bearish, neutral, or bullish. The thresholds for each signal bias can be adjusted on the settings panel.
These signals are based on IntoTheBlock's On-Chain Signals.
Net network growth: Change in the total number of addresses over the last seven periods; i.e., how many new addresses are being created.
In the Money: Change in the seven-period moving average of the total supply in the money. This shows how many addresses are profitable.
Concentration: Change in the aggregate addresses of whales and investors from the previous period. These are addresses holding at least 0.1% of the supply. This shows how many addresses are in the hands of a few.
Large Transactions: Changes in the number of transactions over $100,000. This metric tracks convergence or divergence from the 21- and 30-day EMAs and indicates the momentum of large transactions.
All of these signals together form the blockchain's overall directional bias.
Bearish: The number of bearish individual signals is greater than the number of bullish individual signals.
Neutral: The number of bearish individual signals is equal to the number of bullish individual signals.
Bullish: The number of bullish individual signals is greater than the number of bearish individual signals.
If the overall directional bias is bullish, we can expect the price of the observed cryptocurrency to increase. If the bias is bearish, we can expect the price to decrease. If the signal is neutral, the price may be more likely to stay the same.
Traders should be aware of two things. First, the signals provide optimal results when the chart is set to the daily timeframe. Second, the tool uses IntoTheBlock data, which is available on TradingView. Therefore, some cryptocurrencies may not be available.
🔹 Display Mode
Traders have three different display modes at their disposal. These modes can be easily selected from the settings panel. The gauge is set by default.
🔹 Gauge
The gauge will appear in the center of the visible space. Traders can adjust its size using the Scale parameter in the Settings panel. They can also give it a curved effect.
The number of bars displayed directly affects the gauge's resolution: More bars result in better resolution.
The chart above shows the effect that different scale configurations have on the gauge.
🔹 Historical Data
The chart above shows the historical data for each of the four signals.
Traders can use this mode to adjust the thresholds for each signal on the settings panel to fit the behavior of each cryptocurrency. They can also analyze how each metric impacts price behavior over time.
🔹 Average
This display mode provides an easy way to see the overall bias of past prices in order to analyze price behavior in relation to the underlying blockchain's directional bias.
The average is calculated by taking the values of the overall bias as -1 for bearish, 0 for neutral, and +1 for bullish, and then applying a triangular moving average over 20 periods by default. Simple and exponential moving averages are available, and traders can select the period length from the settings panel.
🔶 DETAILS
The four signals are based on IntoTheBlock's On-Chain Signals. We gather the data, manipulate it, and build the signals depending on each threshold.
Net network growth
float netNetworkGrowthData = customData('_TOTALADDRESSES')
float netNetworkGrowth = 100*(netNetworkGrowthData /netNetworkGrowthData - 1)
In the Money
float inTheMoneyData = customData('_INOUTMONEYIN')
float averageBalance = customData('_AVGBALANCE')
float inTheMoneyBalance = inTheMoneyData*averageBalance
float sma = ta.sma(inTheMoneyBalance,7)
float inTheMoney = ta.roc(sma,1)
Concentration
float whalesData = customData('_WHALESPERCENTAGE')
float inverstorsData = customData('_INVESTORSPERCENTAGE')
float bigHands = whalesData+inverstorsData
float concentration = ta.change(bigHands )*100
Large Transactions
float largeTransacionsData = customData('_LARGETXCOUNT')
float largeTX21 = ta.ema(largeTransacionsData,21)
float largeTX30 = ta.ema(largeTransacionsData,30)
float largeTransacions = ((largeTX21 - largeTX30)/largeTX30)*100
🔶 SETTINGS
Display mode: Select between gauge, historical data and average.
Average: Select a smoothing method and length period.
🔹 Thresholds
Net Network Growth : Bullish and bearish thresholds for this signal.
In The Money : Bullish and bearish thresholds for this signal.
Concentration : Bullish and bearish thresholds for this signal.
Transactions : Bullish and bearish thresholds for this signal.
🔹 Dashboard
Dashboard : Enable/disable dashboard display
Position : Select dashboard location
Size : Select dashboard size
🔹 Gauge
Scale : Select the size of the gauge
Curved : Enable/disable curved mode
Select Gauge colors for bearish, neutral and bullish bias
🔹 Style
Net Network Growth : Enable/disable historical plot and choose color
In The Money : Enable/disable historical plot and choose color
Concentration : Enable/disable historical plot and choose color
Large Transacions : Enable/disable historical plot and choose color
Sat Stacking Strategies Simulation (SSSS)Sat Stacking Strategies Simulation (SSSS)
This indicator simulates and compares different Bitcoin stacking strategies over time, allowing you to visualize performance, cost basis, and stacking behavior directly on your chart.
Core Features:
Three Stacking Strategies
• Trend-Based – Stack only when price is above/below a long-term SMA.
• Stack the Dip – Buy during sharp pullbacks or oversold conditions.
• Price Zone – Stack only in “cheap”, “fair”, or “expensive” zones based on a simulated Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis.
Always Stack Benchmark
Compare your chosen strategy against a simple “Always Stack” approach for a real-world DCA reference.
Performance Metrics Table
Track:
• Total Fiat Added
• Total BTC Accumulated
• Current Value
• Average Cost per BTC
• PnL %
• CAGR
• Sharpe Ratio & Stdev
• Stack Events & Time Underwater
Advanced Options
• Simulate cash-secured puts on unused fiat.
• Simulate covered calls on BTC holdings.
• Roll over unused stacking amounts for future buys.
This tool is designed for Bitcoiners, stackers, and DCA enthusiasts who want to backtest and visualize their stacking plan—whether you keep it simple or go full quant.
Sometimes the best alpha is just showing up every week with your wallet open… and occasionally wearing a helmet. 🪖💰
Composite Sentiment Extremes OscillatorComposite Sentiment Extremes Oscillator (CSEO)
Created by MonkeyPhone
The Composite Sentiment Extremes Oscillator (CSEO) is a sophisticated market sentiment indicator designed to identify optimal entry and exit points by leveraging a composite of six key market data points. I developed this indicator to pinpoint moments where the risk-to-reward ratio for entering or exiting trades reaches its peak, helping traders capitalize on potential reversals. The oscillator aggregates data from the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio (PCCE), NYSE TRIN, Net New 52-Week Highs/Lows, ICE BofA US High Yield Bond Spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2), and the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day moving average (S5TH). Each component is normalized using a 252-bar percentrank to reflect greed (high values) or fear (low values), creating a unified 0-100 sentiment score.
The oscillator's line color reflects market conditions: red when above 60 (indicating a trending up market), gray between 40 and 60 (suggesting chop or consolidation), and green below 40 (indicating a trending down market). Notably, the higher or lower the line moves toward the extremes (88 for greed, 12 for fear), the more likely a pullback or retracement becomes, offering strategic opportunities for reversals. Given the long-term upward trend in legacy markets over decades, long signals (buy at extreme fear) tend to carry more weight than short signals (sell at extreme greed), though this dynamic may shift if markets experience a significant rollover.
This indicator performs best on the weekly timeframe, where its accuracy in identifying sentiment extremes shines, making it ideal for swing or position trading. It supports any timeframe daily or above, but lower timeframes (e.g., daily) may produce increased false signals due to data resolution limitations. Alerts can be configured for both long and short entries, allowing traders to receive notifications when the oscillator crosses the 12 (buy) or 88 (sell) thresholds—accessible via the TradingView alert interface for customized monitoring.
Use this tool to enhance your market timing, but always combine it with other analysis for confirmation. Feedback and suggestions are welcome as I continue to refine this indicator!
Trend Strength Index [Alpha Extract]The Trend Strength Index leverages Volume Weighted Moving Average (VWMA) and Average True Range (ATR) to quantify trend intensity in cryptocurrency markets, particularly Bitcoin. The combination of VWMA and ATR is particularly powerful because VWMA provides a more accurate representation of the market's true average price by weighting periods of higher trading volume more heavily—capturing genuine momentum driven by increased participation rather than treating all price action equally, which is crucial in volatile assets like Bitcoin where volume spikes often signal institutional interest or market shifts.
Meanwhile, ATR normalizes this measurement for volatility, ensuring that trend strength readings remain comparable across different market conditions; without ATR's adjustment, raw price deviations from the mean could appear artificially inflated during high-volatility periods (like during news events or liquidations) or understated in low-volatility sideways markets, leading to misleading signals. Together, they create a volatility-adjusted, volume-sensitive metric that reliably distinguishes between meaningful trend developments and noise.
This indicator measures the normalized distance between price and its volume-weighted mean, providing a clear visualization of trend strength while accounting for market volatility. It helps traders identify periods of strong directional movement versus consolidation, with color-coded gradients for intuitive interpretation.
🔶 CALCULATION
The indicator processes price data through these analytical stages:
Volume Weighted Moving Average: Computes a smoothed average weighted by trading volume
Volatility Normalization: Uses ATR to account for market volatility
Distance Measurement: Calculates absolute deviation between current price and VWMA
Strength Normalization: Divides price deviation by ATR for a volatility-adjusted metric
Formula:
VWMA = Volume-Weighted Moving Average of Close over specified length
ATR = Average True Range over specified length
Price Distance = |Close - VWMA|
Trend Strength = Price Distance / ATR
🔶 DETAILS Visual Features:
VWMA Line: Blue line overlay on the price chart representing the volume-weighted mean
Trend Strength Area: Histogram-style area plot with dynamic color gradient (red for weak trends, transitioning through orange and yellow to green for strong trends)
Threshold Line: Horizontal red line at the customizable Trend Enter level
Background Highlight: Subtle green background when trend strength exceeds the enter threshold for strong trend visualization
Alert System: Triggers notifications for strong trend detection
Interpretation:
0-Weak (Red): Minimal trend strength, potential consolidation or ranging market
Mid-Range (Orange/Yellow): Building momentum, watch for breakout potential
At/Above Enter Threshold (Green): Strong trend conditions, potential for continued directional moves
Threshold Crossing: Trend strength crossing above the enter level signals increasing conviction in the current direction
Color Transitions: Gradual shifts from warm (red/orange) to cool (green) tones indicate strengthening trends
🔶 EXAMPLES
Strong Trend Entry: When trend strength crosses above the enter threshold (e.g., 1.2), it identifies the onset of a powerful move where price deviates significantly from the mean.
Example: During a rally, trend strength rising from yellow (around 1.0) to green (1.2+) often precedes sustained upward momentum, providing entry opportunities for trend followers.
Consolidation Detection: Low trend strength values in red shades (below 0.5) highlight periods of low volatility and mean reversion potential.
Example: After a sharp sell-off, persistent red values signal a likely sideways phase, allowing traders to avoid whipsaws and wait for orange/yellow transitions as a precursor to recovery.
Volatility-Adjusted Pullbacks: In volatile markets, the ATR component ensures trend strength remains accurate; a dip back to yellow from green during minor corrections can indicate healthy pullbacks within a strong trend.
Example: Trend strength briefly falling to yellow levels (e.g., 0.8-1.1) after hitting green provides profit-taking signals without invalidating the overall bullish bias if the VWMA holds as support.
Threshold Alert Integration: The alert condition combines strength value with the enter threshold for timely notifications.
Example: Receiving a "Strong Trend Detected" alert when the area plot turns green helps confirm Bitcoin's breakout from consolidation, aligning with increased volume for higher-probability trades.
🔶 SETTINGS
Customization Options:
Lengths: VWMA length (default 14), ATR length (default 14)
Thresholds: Trend enter (default 1.2, step 0.1), trend exit (default 1.15, for potential future signal enhancements)
Visuals: Automatic color scaling with red at 0, transitioning to green at/above enter threshold
Alert Conditions: Strong trend detection (when strength > enter)
The Trend Strength Index equips traders with a robust, easy-to-interpret tool for gauging trend intensity in volatile markets like Bitcoin. By normalizing price deviations against volatility, it delivers reliable signals for identifying high-momentum opportunities while the gradient coloring and alerts facilitate quick assessments in both trending and choppy conditions.
TFPS - TradFi Pressure ScoreThe Data-Driven Answer to a New Market Reality.
This indicator quantifies the pressure exerted by Wall Street on the crypto market across four critical dimensions: Risk Appetite, Fear, Liquidity Flows, and the Opportunity Cost of Capital. Our research has found that the correlation between this 4-dimensional pressure vector and crypto price action reaches peak values of 0.87. This is your decisive macro edge, delivered in real-time.
The Irreversible Transformation
A fundamental analysis of the last five years of market data proves an irreversible transformation: The crypto market has matured into a high-beta risk asset, its fate now inextricably linked to Traditional Finance (TradFi).
The empirical data is clear:
Bitcoin increasingly behaves like a leveraged version of the S&P 500.
The correlation to major stock indices is statistically significant and persistent.
The "digital gold" narrative is refuted by the data; the correlation to gold is virtually non-existent.
This means standard technical indicators are no longer sufficient. Tools like RSI or MACD are blind to the powerful, external macro context that now dominates price action. They see the effect, but not the cause.
The Solution: A 4-Dimensional Macro-Lens
The TradFi Pressure Score (TFPS) is the answer. It is an institutional-grade dashboard that aggregates the four most dominant external forces into a single, actionable score:
S&P 500 (SPY): The Pulse of Risk Appetite. A rising S&P signals a "risk-on" environment, fueling capital flows into crypto.
VIX: The Market's Fear Gauge. A rising VIX signals a "risk-off" flight to safety, draining liquidity from crypto.
DXY (US-Dollar Index): The Anchor of Global Liquidity. A strong Dollar (rising DXY) tightens financial conditions, creating powerful headwinds for risk assets like Bitcoin.
US 10Y Yield: The Opportunity Cost of Capital. Rising yields make risk-free assets more attractive, pulling capital away from non-yielding assets like crypto.
What makes the TFPS truly unique?
1. Dynamic Weighting (The Secret Weapon):
Which macro factor matters most right now? Is it a surging Dollar or a collapsing stock market? The TFPS answers this automatically. It continuously analyzes the correlation of all four components to your chosen asset (e.g., Bitcoin) and adjusts their influence in real-time. The dashboard shows you the exact live weights, ensuring you are always focused on the factor that is currently driving the market.
2. Adaptive Engine:
The forces driving a 15-minute chart are different from those driving a daily chart. The TFPS engine automatically recalibrates its internal lookback periods to your chosen timeframe. This ensures the score is always optimally relevant, whether you are a day trader or a swing trader.
3. Designed for Actionable Insights
The Pressure Line: The indicator's core output. Is its value > 0 (tailwind) or < 0 (headwind)? This provides an instant, unambiguous read on the macro environment for your trade.
The Z-Score (The Contrarian Signal): The background "Stress Cloud" and the discrete dots provide early warnings of extreme macro greed or fear. Readings above +2 or below -2 have historically pinpointed moments of market exhaustion that often precede major trend reversals.
Lead/Lag Status: Gain a critical edge by knowing who is in the driver's seat. The dashboard tells you if TradFi is leading the price action or if crypto is moving independently, allowing you to validate your trade thesis against the dominant market force.
This is a public indicator with protected source code
Access is now available for traders who understand the new market reality at the intersection of crypto and traditional finance.
You are among the first to leverage what is a new standard for macro analysis in crypto trading. Your feedback is highly valued as I continue to refine this tool.
Follow for updates and trade with the full context!
TFPS - TradFi-Pressure-Score (Adaptive)The data-driven answer to an irreversible market reality.
This indicator quantifies the combined pressure from the S&P 500, VIX, DXY, and US10Y, whose correlation to crypto has reached peak values of 0.87. Your decisive macro edge, in real-time.
This indicator is built on a fundamental analysis of market data from the last five years. The analysis proves an irreversible transformation: The crypto market has evolved into a high-beta risk asset, its fate inextricably linked to Traditional Finance (TradFi).
The empirical data is clear:
Bitcoin increasingly behaves like a leveraged version of the S&P 500.
The correlation to stock indices, with peak values of up to 0.87, is statistically highly significant.
The "digital gold" safe-haven narrative is refuted by the data; the correlation to gold (0.04) is virtually non-existent and statistically insignificant.
This means: Standard indicators like RSI or MACD are insufficient for today's market conditions. They only see price, ignoring the powerful external context that now dominates price action.
The TradFi Pressure Score (TFPS) is the answer to this data-driven reality. It's your institutional-grade macro dashboard, aggregating the four most dominant external forces into a single, actionable score:
S&P 500 (SPY): The pulse of global risk appetite. A rising S&P signals a "risk-on" environment, fueling capital flows into crypto.
VIX: The market's "Fear Gauge". A rising VIX signals a "risk-off" flight to safety, draining liquidity from crypto.
DXY (US-Dollar Index): The counter-pole to risk assets. A strong Dollar (rising DXY) tightens global liquidity, creating significant headwinds for Bitcoin.
US 10Y Yield: The opportunity cost of capital. Rising yields make risk-free assets more attractive, pulling capital away from non-yielding assets like crypto.
What makes TFPS truly unique?
Dynamic Weighting (its secret weapon): Which factor matters most today? The DXY or the VIX? TFPS continuously analyzes the correlation of all four factors to your chosen asset (e.g., Bitcoin) and automatically adjusts their weight in real-time. This ensures you're always focused on what's currently driving the market.
Adaptive Engine : What drives a 15-minute chart is different from a daily chart. The TFPS engine automatically adapts its lookback periods and calculations to your chosen timeframe for optimal relevance.
Clear, Actionable Signals Designed for Traders:
Pressure Line (>0 or <0): Instantly see if the world's largest financial forces are providing a tailwind or a headwind for your trade.
Z-Score (Extreme Readings) : Get early warnings of extreme macro "Greed" or "Fear". Readings above +2 or below -2 have historically pinpointed moments of market exhaustion that often precede major trend reversals.
Regime Change : A fundamental shift in the nature of TradFi pressure is visualized with a clear signal, providing unambiguous macro insights.
Lead/Lag Status : Gain a critical edge by knowing who's in the driver's seat. The dashboard tells you if TradFi is LEADING the price action or if crypto is moving independently, allowing you to focus on the right information source.
This is a private beta. I am granting exclusive access to a limited number of traders who understand this new market reality. In exchange for your valuable feedback, you will be among the first to leverage what I believe is the new standard for macro analysis in crypto trading.
Request access to trade with the full context.
BTC PL Trend + Floor - Log PilotBTC Power Law Trend + Floor with forward projection.
Sky blue for the trend. Neon orange for the floor. Both project forward in dotted green.
Tracks Bitcoin’s long-term arc and structural support through time since Genesis.
DAX Inducere Simplă v1.3 – Confirmare InducereDAX Inducere Simplă v1.3 – Confirmare Inducere ,signals before fvg mss and displacement
Turttle_Dalmata Indicator v10📘 Turttle_Dalmata Indicator – Overview
The Turttle_Dalmata v10 is a proprietary trading indicator engineered for high-precision intraday scalping and trend breakout validation. It combines real-time price action, volume dynamics, and multi-timeframe confluence to generate high-quality entry signals while filtering out noise and chop.
⸻
🧠 What It Does
• Dynamically scores market conditions using a multi-layered confluence engine
• Detects trend-aligned breakout setups, fair value gaps, and volume surges
• Uses a session-anchored VWAP to keep entries near equilibrium
• Implements advanced filtering logic to avoid signals during overextended or sideways conditions
• Includes intelligent signal throttling to prevent back-to-back entries in choppy markets
⸻
🎯 Why It Works
• Filters out low-conviction moves and extended breakouts that often lead to reversals
• Waits for structure-confirmed and volume-backed price breaks
• Avoids false signals by enforcing cooldown windows and signal cycle rotation
⸻
🧠 Core Features
• 🔟 Confluence Scoring System: Combines EMA trend, RSI strength, volume spikes, break of structure, fair value gaps, CVC momentum, and more.
• 🟣 Market Cipher-Style VWAP: Uses a daily session VWAP anchored at 00:00 UTC for equilibrium-based trade filters.
• 🧮 Custom Signal Filtering:
• ✅ VWAP max distance filter – blocks trades too far from VWAP (mean reversion bias)
• ✅ Cooldown system – blocks signals if another signal happened in the last X bars (default: 5)
• ✅ EMA velocity – detects acceleration during breakouts
• 🔁 Signal Lock Logic: Prevents same-side signals from repeating until an opposite signal occurs.
📈 How It Looks
• 🔼 Green triangles for high-probability long entries
• 🔽 Red triangles for high-probability short entries
• Clean visual overlays: session VWAP and EMA for trend tracking
⸻
✅ Optimized For
• 1-minute and 2-minute charts
• Crypto and futures markets
• Traders who value signal quality over quantity
Market to NAV Premium Arbitrage Alpha IndicatorBitcoin treasury companies such as Microstrategy are known for trading at significant premiums. but how big exactly is the premium? And how can we measure it in real time?
I developed this quantitative tool to identify statistical mispricings between market capitalization and net asset value (NAV), specifically designed for arbitrage strategies and alpha generation in Bitcoin-holding companies, such as MicroStrategy or Sharplink Gaming, or SPACs used primarily to hold cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin ETFs, and other NAV-based instruments. It can probably also be used in certain spin-offs.
KEY FEATURES:
✅ Real-time Premium/Discount Calculation
• Automatically retrieves market cap data from TradingView
• Calculates precise NAV based on underlying asset holdings (for example Bitcoin)
• Formula: (Market Cap - NAV) / NAV × 100
✅ Statistical Analysis
• Historical percentile rankings (customizable lookback period)
• Standard deviation bands (2σ) for extreme value detection (close to these values might be seen as interesting points to short or go long)
• Smoothing period to reduce noise
✅ Multi-Source Market Cap Detection
• You can add the ticker of the NAV asset, but if necessary, you can also put it manually. Priority system: TradingView data → Calculated → Manual override
✅ Advanced NAV Modeling
• Basic NAV: Asset holdings + cash.
• Adjusted NAV: Includes software business value, debt, preferred shares. If the company has a lot of this kind of intrinsic value, put it in the "cash" field
• Support for any underlying asset (BTC, ETH, etc.)
TRADING APPLICATIONS:
🎯 Pairs Trading Signals
• Long/Short opportunities when premium reaches statistical extremes
• Mean reversion strategies based on historical ranges
• Risk-adjusted position sizing using percentile ranks
🎯 Arbitrage Detection
• Identifies when market pricing significantly deviates from fair value
• Quantifies the magnitude of mispricing for profit potential
• Historical context for timing entry/exit points
CONFIGURATION OPTIONS:
• Underlying Asset: Any symbol (default: COINBASE:BTCUSD) NEEDS MANUAL INPUT
• Asset Quantity: Precise holdings amount (for example, how much BTC does the company currently hold). NEEDS MANUAL INPUT
• Cash Holdings: Additional liquid assets. NEEDS MANUAL INPUT
• Market Cap Mode: Auto-detect, calculated, or manual
• Advanced Adjustments: Business value, debt, preferred shares
• Display Settings: Lookback period, smoothing, custom colors
IT CAN BE USED BY:
• Quantitative traders focused on statistical arbitrage
• Institutional investors monitoring NAV-based instruments
• Bitcoin ETF and MSTR traders seeking alpha generation
• Risk managers tracking premium/discount exposures
• Academic researchers studying market efficiency (as you can see, markets are not efficient 😉)
Durdens Global M2 Liquidity Tracker🧠 Durdens Global M2 Liquidity Tracker | Bitcoin vs Liquidity, Visualized
If you’re not watching global liquidity, you’re not really trading macro.
This indicator tracks FX-adjusted M2 money supply across 20+ countries, aggregated into a single global liquidity signal. It can then be used to overlay against Bitcoin for timing macro shifts with precision.
🔍 Core Features:
🌐 USD-adjusted M2 from the US, China, Eurozone, UK, Japan, and more
📊 Normalization modes: None (raw), Index (Based to 100), Z-Score
⏳ Offset input to shift liquidity data forward — aligns with Bitcoin's delayed reaction (84–107 days common)
🧠 BTC correlation matrix: 30D, 90D, 365D correlation values
🧪 Top 3 M2 delta signals: Tracks 90-day % change for US, China, EU
🧮 Fibonacci SMAs: 13 / 34 / 89 for structural macro context
🟢🔴 Liquidity regime engine: EMA 89 defines "Risk-On" vs "Risk-Off" states
🧩 How It Works:
Each country’s M2 is multiplied by its FX rate (to USD) and summed into a single global M2 line. This ensures comparability across nations. The user can choose to:
Normalize the output (raw, indexed, or z-scored)
Shift the global M2 forward in time (offset), simulating the lag effect liquidity has on Bitcoin
Visualize macro risk conditions using EMA 89 as a liquidity regime filter
Analyze BTC correlation across 3 windows and track key regions’ M2 delta
❓ FAQ:
Why does this matter?
M2 is the monetary fuel behind asset bubbles. When liquidity rises, Bitcoin follows; with a delay. This tracker helps you front-run macro flows before they hit the chart.
Why use Index or Z-Score modes?
Raw values skew long-term visual analysis. Index mode rebases data for comparative trend tracking. Z-Score shows when liquidity is overheated or suppressed (mean reversion).
What does the offset input do?
Liquidity doesn’t hit Bitcoin instantly. Many traders use an 84–107 day forward shift to align M2 changes with BTC price action. The offset helps you visualize this.
Why track top 3 M2 regions?
US, China, and Eurozone are the heavyweights in global liquidity. Tracking their offset-day % change gives immediate insight into capital expansion or contraction.
Can I use this to trade?
Absolutely; but it’s best used as a macro filter. Combine with price structure, funding, or on-chain data to optimize timing and conviction.
⚡ Use Cases:
Spot early pivots in liquidity regimes (Risk-Off to Risk-On)
Quantify macro backdrop for Bitcoin or altcoin cycles
Understand when the Fed or PBOC are tightening or easing
Ditch the hopium. Trade with context.
—
Built by: @DurdensBitcoinLedger
Follow for updates — future upgrades include:
• Regional toggles
• Custom M2 baskets
• Alert conditions
• Continued revisions & updates
Stay liquid, not wrecked.
Ultimate Market Structure [Alpha Extract]Ultimate Market Structure
A comprehensive market structure analysis tool that combines advanced swing point detection, imbalance zone identification, and intelligent break analysis to identify high-probability trading opportunities.Utilizing a sophisticated trend scoring system, this indicator classifies market conditions and provides clear signals for structure breaks, directional changes, and fair value gap detection with institutional-grade precision.
🔶 Advanced Swing Point Detection
Identifies pivot highs and lows using configurable lookback periods with optional close-based analysis for cleaner signals. The system automatically labels swing points as Higher Highs (HH), Lower Highs (LH), Higher Lows (HL), and Lower Lows (LL) while providing advanced classifications including "rising_high", "falling_high", "rising_low", "falling_low", "peak_high", and "valley_low" for nuanced market analysis.
swingHighPrice = useClosesForStructure ? ta.pivothigh(close, swingLength, swingLength) : ta.pivothigh(high, swingLength, swingLength)
swingLowPrice = useClosesForStructure ? ta.pivotlow(close, swingLength, swingLength) : ta.pivotlow(low, swingLength, swingLength)
classification = classifyStructurePoint(structureHighPrice, upperStructure, true)
significance = calculateSignificance(structureHighPrice, upperStructure, true)
🔶 Significance Scoring System
Each structure point receives a significance level on a 1-5 scale based on its distance from previous points, helping prioritize the most important levels. This intelligent scoring system ensures traders focus on the most meaningful structure breaks while filtering out minor noise.
🔶 Comprehensive Trend Analysis
Calculates momentum, strength, direction, and confidence levels using volatility-normalized price changes and multi-timeframe correlation. The system provides real-time trend state tracking with bullish (+1), bearish (-1), or neutral (0) direction assessment and 0-100 confidence scoring.
// Calculate trend momentum using rate of change and volatility
calculateTrendMomentum(lookback) =>
priceChange = (close - close ) / close * 100
avgVolatility = ta.atr(lookback) / close * 100
momentum = priceChange / (avgVolatility + 0.0001)
momentum
// Calculate trend strength using multiple timeframe correlation
calculateTrendStrength(shortPeriod, longPeriod) =>
shortMA = ta.sma(close, shortPeriod)
longMA = ta.sma(close, longPeriod)
separation = math.abs(shortMA - longMA) / longMA * 100
strength = separation * slopeAlignment
❓How It Works
🔶 Imbalance Zone Detection
Identifies Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) between consecutive candles where price gaps create unfilled areas. These zones are displayed as semi-transparent boxes with optional center line mitigation tracking, highlighting potential support and resistance levels where institutional players often react.
// Detect Fair Value Gaps
detectPriceImbalance() =>
currentHigh = high
currentLow = low
refHigh = high
refLow = low
if currentOpen > currentClose
if currentHigh - refLow < 0
upperBound = currentClose - (currentClose - refLow)
lowerBound = currentClose - (currentClose - currentHigh)
centerPoint = (upperBound + lowerBound) / 2
newZone = ImbalanceZone.new(
zoneBox = box.new(bar_index, upperBound, rightEdge, lowerBound,
bgcolor=bullishImbalanceColor, border_color=hiddenColor)
)
🔶 Structure Break Analysis
Determines Break of Structure (BOS) for trend continuation and Directional Change (DC) for trend reversals with advanced classification as "continuation", "reversal", or "neutral". The system compares pre-trend and post-trend states for each break, providing comprehensive trend change momentum analysis.
🔶 Intelligent Zone Management
Features partial mitigation tracking when price enters but doesn't fully fill zones, with automatic zone boundary adjustment during partial fills. Smart array management keeps only recent structure points for optimal performance while preventing duplicate signals from the same level.
🔶 Liquidity Zone Detection
Automatically identifies potential liquidity zones at key structure points for institutional trading analysis. The system tracks broken structure points and provides adaptive zone extension with configurable time-based limits for imbalance areas.
🔶 Visual Structure Mapping
Provides clear visual indicators including swing labels with color-coded significance levels, dashed lines connecting break points with BOS/DC labels, and break signals for continuation and reversal patterns. The adaptive zones feature smart management with automatic mitigation tracking.
🔶 Market Structure Interpretation
HH/HL patterns indicate bullish market structure with trend continuation likelihood, while LH/LL patterns signal bearish structure with downtrend continuation expected. BOS signals represent structure breaks in trend direction for continuation opportunities, while DC signals warn of potential reversals.
🔶 Performance Optimization
Automatic cleanup of old structure points (keeps last 8 points), recent break tracking (keeps last 5 break events), and efficient array management ensure smooth performance across all timeframes and market conditions.
Why Choose Ultimate Market Structure ?
This indicator provides traders with institutional-grade market structure analysis, combining multiple analytical approaches into one comprehensive tool. By identifying key structure levels, imbalance zones, and break patterns with advanced significance scoring, it helps traders understand market dynamics and position themselves for high-probability trade setups in alignment with smart money concepts. The sophisticated trend scoring system and intelligent zone management make it an essential tool for any serious trader looking to decode market structure with precision and confidence.
HIFI BTC Daily Hashrate Momentum OscillatorThe "HIFI BTC Daily Hashrate Momentum Oscillator" indicator is an oscillator that analyzes the "health" and confidence of miners in the Bitcoin network. It measures the momentum of hashrate changes using its deviation from the 30-day and 60-day moving averages. A rising hashrate is often a leading or confirming bullish trend indicator for the price of BTC.
Main Idea
Hashrate is the total computing power involved in mining. Its growth indicates increased investment in network security and miners' confidence in future profitability.
Blue Oscillator (fast): Shows the short-term dynamics of hashrate growth.
Green Oscillator (slow): Indicates the long-term trend of hash rate changes.
Chart background: The green background signals the acceleration of the hash rate growth (short-term momentum is higher than long-term), which is a positive sign.
How to Read Signals
A Buy signal appears when two fundamental conditions coincide:
Growth acceleration: The short-term hashrate momentum becomes stronger than the long-term one (the blue line crosses the green one from bottom to top). This indicates that miners are actively building capacity.
Exit from stagnation: This acceleration occurs after a period of weak hashrate growth or decline (the green line is below the red dashed line).
This combination indicates the potential start of a new cycle of growth and confidence in the network, which historically has often preceded the rise in the price of Bitcoin itself.
Disclamer: This indicator is an analysis tool and should not be considered as a direct financial recommendation. Always do your own analysis before making trades.
Wavelet-Trend ML Integration [Alpha Extract]Alpha-Extract Volatility Quality Indicator
The Alpha-Extract Volatility Quality (AVQ) Indicator provides traders with deep insights into market volatility by measuring the directional strength of price movements. This sophisticated momentum-based tool helps identify overbought and oversold conditions, offering actionable buy and sell signals based on volatility trends and standard deviation bands.
🔶 CALCULATION
The indicator processes volatility quality data through a series of analytical steps:
Bar Range Calculation: Measures true range (TR) to capture price volatility.
Directional Weighting: Applies directional bias (positive for bullish candles, negative for bearish) to the true range.
VQI Computation: Uses an exponential moving average (EMA) of weighted volatility to derive the Volatility Quality Index (VQI).
Smoothing: Applies an additional EMA to smooth the VQI for clearer signals.
Normalization: Optionally normalizes VQI to a -100/+100 scale based on historical highs and lows.
Standard Deviation Bands: Calculates three upper and lower bands using standard deviation multipliers for volatility thresholds.
Signal Generation: Produces overbought/oversold signals when VQI reaches extreme levels (±200 in normalized mode).
Formula:
Bar Range = True Range (TR)
Weighted Volatility = Bar Range × (Close > Open ? 1 : Close < Open ? -1 : 0)
VQI Raw = EMA(Weighted Volatility, VQI Length)
VQI Smoothed = EMA(VQI Raw, Smoothing Length)
VQI Normalized = ((VQI Smoothed - Lowest VQI) / (Highest VQI - Lowest VQI) - 0.5) × 200
Upper Band N = VQI Smoothed + (StdDev(VQI Smoothed, VQI Length) × Multiplier N)
Lower Band N = VQI Smoothed - (StdDev(VQI Smoothed, VQI Length) × Multiplier N)
🔶 DETAILS
Visual Features:
VQI Plot: Displays VQI as a line or histogram (lime for positive, red for negative).
Standard Deviation Bands: Plots three upper and lower bands (teal for upper, grayscale for lower) to indicate volatility thresholds.
Reference Levels: Horizontal lines at 0 (neutral), +100, and -100 (in normalized mode) for context.
Zone Highlighting: Overbought (⋎ above bars) and oversold (⋏ below bars) signals for extreme VQI levels (±200 in normalized mode).
Candle Coloring: Optional candle overlay colored by VQI direction (lime for positive, red for negative).
Interpretation:
VQI ≥ 200 (Normalized): Overbought condition, strong sell signal.
VQI 100–200: High volatility, potential selling opportunity.
VQI 0–100: Neutral bullish momentum.
VQI 0 to -100: Neutral bearish momentum.
VQI -100 to -200: High volatility, strong bearish momentum.
VQI ≤ -200 (Normalized): Oversold condition, strong buy signal.
🔶 EXAMPLES
Overbought Signal Detection: When VQI exceeds 200 (normalized), the indicator flags potential market tops with a red ⋎ symbol.
Example: During strong uptrends, VQI reaching 200 has historically preceded corrections, allowing traders to secure profits.
Oversold Signal Detection: When VQI falls below -200 (normalized), a lime ⋏ symbol highlights potential buying opportunities.
Example: In bearish markets, VQI dropping below -200 has marked reversal points for profitable long entries.
Volatility Trend Tracking: The VQI plot and bands help traders visualize shifts in market momentum.
Example: A rising VQI crossing above zero with widening bands indicates strengthening bullish momentum, guiding traders to hold or enter long positions.
Dynamic Support/Resistance: Standard deviation bands act as dynamic volatility thresholds during price movements.
Example: Price reversals often occur near the third standard deviation bands, providing reliable entry/exit points during volatile periods.
🔶 SETTINGS
Customization Options:
VQI Length: Adjust the EMA period for VQI calculation (default: 14, range: 1–50).
Smoothing Length: Set the EMA period for smoothing (default: 5, range: 1–50).
Standard Deviation Multipliers: Customize multipliers for bands (defaults: 1.0, 2.0, 3.0).
Normalization: Toggle normalization to -100/+100 scale and adjust lookback period (default: 200, min: 50).
Display Style: Switch between line or histogram plot for VQI.
Candle Overlay: Enable/disable VQI-colored candles (lime for positive, red for negative).
The Alpha-Extract Volatility Quality Indicator empowers traders with a robust tool to navigate market volatility. By combining directional price range analysis with smoothed volatility metrics, it identifies overbought and oversold conditions, offering clear buy and sell signals. The customizable standard deviation bands and optional normalization provide precise context for market conditions, enabling traders to make informed decisions across various market cycles.
Bitcoin Power Law Clock [LuxAlgo]The Bitcoin Power Law Clock is a unique representation of Bitcoin prices proposed by famous Bitcoin analyst and modeler Giovanni Santostasi.
It displays a clock-like figure with the Bitcoin price and average lines as spirals, as well as the 12, 3, 6, and 9 hour marks as key points in the cycle.
🔶 USAGE
Giovanni Santostasi, Ph.D., is the creator and discoverer of the Bitcoin Power Law Theory. He is passionate about Bitcoin and has 12 years of experience analyzing it and creating price models.
As we can see in the above chart, the tool is super intuitive. It displays a clock-like figure with the current Bitcoin price at 10:20 on a 12-hour scale.
This tool only works on the 1D INDEX:BTCUSD chart. The ticker and timeframe must be exact to ensure proper functionality.
According to the Bitcoin Power Law Theory, the key cycle points are marked at the extremes of the clock: 12, 3, 6, and 9 hours. According to the theory, the current Bitcoin prices are in a frenzied bull market on their way to the top of the cycle.
🔹 Enable/Disable Elements
All of the elements on the clock can be disabled. If you disable them all, only an empty space will remain.
The different charts above show various combinations. Traders can customize the tool to their needs.
🔹 Auto scale
The clock has an auto-scale feature that is enabled by default. Traders can adjust the size of the clock by disabling this feature and setting the size in the settings panel.
The image above shows different configurations of this feature.
🔶 SETTINGS
🔹 Price
Price: Enable/disable price spiral, select color, and enable/disable curved mode
Average: Enable/disable average spiral, select color, and enable/disable curved mode
🔹 Style
Auto scale: Enable/disable automatic scaling or set manual fixed scaling for the spirals
Lines width: Width of each spiral line
Text Size: Select text size for date tags and price scales
Prices: Enable/disable price scales on the x-axis
Handle: Enable/disable clock handle
Halvings: Enable/disable Halvings
Hours: Enable/disable hours and key cycle points
🔹 Time & Price Dashboard
Show Time & Price: Enable/disable time & price dashboard
Location: Dashboard location
Size: Dashboard size
Bitcoin Power Law [LuxAlgo]The Bitcoin Power Law tool is a representation of Bitcoin prices first proposed by Giovanni Santostasi, Ph.D. It plots BTCUSD daily closes on a log10-log10 scale, and fits a linear regression channel to the data.
This channel helps traders visualise when the price is historically in a zone prone to tops or located within a discounted zone subject to future growth.
🔶 USAGE
Giovanni Santostasi, Ph.D. originated the Bitcoin Power-Law Theory; this implementation places it directly on a TradingView chart. The white line shows the daily closing price, while the cyan line is the best-fit regression.
A channel is constructed from the linear fit root mean squared error (RMSE), we can observe how price has repeatedly oscillated between each channel areas through every bull-bear cycle.
Excursions into the upper channel area can be followed by price surges and finishing on a top, whereas price touching the lower channel area coincides with a cycle low.
Users can change the channel areas multipliers, helping capture moves more precisely depending on the intended usage.
This tool only works on the daily BTCUSD chart. Ticker and timeframe must match exactly for the calculations to remain valid.
🔹 Linear Scale
Users can toggle on a linear scale for the time axis, in order to obtain a higher resolution of the price, (this will affect the linear regression channel fit, making it look poorer).
🔶 DETAILS
One of the advantages of the Power Law Theory proposed by Giovanni Santostasi is its ability to explain multiple behaviors of Bitcoin. We describe some key points below.
🔹 Power-Law Overview
A power law has the form y = A·xⁿ , and Bitcoin’s key variables follow this pattern across many orders of magnitude. Empirically, price rises roughly with t⁶, hash-rate with t¹² and the number of active addresses with t³.
When we plot these on log-log axes they appear as straight lines, revealing a scale-invariant system whose behaviour repeats proportionally as it grows.
🔹 Feedback-Loop Dynamics
Growth begins with new users, whose presence pushes the price higher via a Metcalfe-style square-law. A richer price pool funds more mining hardware; the Difficulty Adjustment immediately raises the hash-rate requirement, keeping profit margins razor-thin.
A higher hash rate secures the network, which in turn attracts the next wave of users. Because risk and Difficulty act as braking forces, user adoption advances as a power of three in time rather than an unchecked S-curve. This circular causality repeats without end, producing the familiar boom-and-bust cadence around the long-term power-law channel.
🔹 Scale Invariance & Predictions
Scale invariance means that enlarging the timeline in log-log space leaves the trajectory unchanged.
The same geometric proportions that described the first dollar of value can therefore extend to a projected million-dollar bitcoin, provided no catastrophic break occurs. Institutional ETF inflows supply fresh capital but do not bend the underlying slope; only a persistent deviation from the line would falsify the current model.
🔹 Implications
The theory assigns scarcity no direct role; iterative feedback and the Difficulty Adjustment are sufficient to govern Bitcoin’s expansion. Long-term valuation should focus on position within the power-law channel, while bubbles—sharp departures above trend that later revert—are expected punctuations of an otherwise steady climb.
Beyond about 2040, disruptive technological shifts could alter the parameters, but for the next order of magnitude the present slope remains the simplest, most robust guide.
Bitcoin behaves less like a traditional asset and more like a self-organising digital organism whose value, security, and adoption co-evolve according to immutable power-law rules.
🔶 SETTINGS
🔹 General
Start Calculation: Determine the start date used by the calculation, with any prior prices being ignored. (default - 15 Jul 2010)
Use Linear Scale for X-Axis: Convert the horizontal axis from log(time) to linear calendar time
🔹 Linear Regression
Show Regression Line: Enable/disable the central power-law trend line
Regression Line Color: Choose the colour of the regression line
Mult 1: Toggle line & fill, set multiplier (default +1), pick line colour and area fill colour
Mult 2: Toggle line & fill, set multiplier (default +0.5), pick line colour and area fill colour
Mult 3: Toggle line & fill, set multiplier (default -0.5), pick line colour and area fill colour
Mult 4: Toggle line & fill, set multiplier (default -1), pick line colour and area fill colour
🔹 Style
Price Line Color: Select the colour of the BTC price plot
Auto Color: Automatically choose the best contrast colour for the price line
Price Line Width: Set the thickness of the price line (1 – 5 px)
Show Halvings: Enable/disable dotted vertical lines at each Bitcoin halving
Halvings Color: Choose the colour of the halving lines
CHN BUY SELL with EMA 200Overview
This indicator combines RSI 7 momentum signals with EMA 200 trend filtering to generate high-probability BUY and SELL entry points. It uses colored candles to highlight key market conditions and displays clear trading signals with built-in cooldown periods to prevent signal spam.
Key Features
Colored Candles: Visual momentum indicators based on RSI 7 levels
Trend Filtering: EMA 200 confirms overall market direction
Signal Cooldown: Prevents over-trading with adjustable waiting periods
Clean Interface: Simple BUY/SELL labels without clutter
How It Works
Candle Coloring System
Yellow Candles: Appear when RSI 7 ≥ 70 (overbought momentum)
Purple Candles: Appear when RSI 7 ≤ 30 (oversold momentum)
Normal Candles: All other market conditions
Trading Signals
BUY Signal: Triggered when closing price > EMA 200 AND yellow candle appears
SELL Signal: Triggered when closing price < EMA 200 AND purple candle appears
Signal Cooldown
After a BUY or SELL signal appears, the same signal type is suppressed for a specified number of candles (default: 5) to prevent excessive signals in ranging markets.
Settings
RSI 7 Length: Period for RSI calculation (default: 7)
RSI 7 Overbought: Threshold for yellow candles (default: 70)
RSI 7 Oversold: Threshold for purple candles (default: 30)
EMA Length: Period for trend filter (default: 200)
Signal Cooldown: Candles to wait between same signal type (default: 5)
How to Use
Apply the indicator to your chart
Look for yellow or purple colored candles
For LONG entries: Wait for yellow candle above EMA 200, then enter BUY when signal appears
For SHORT entries: Wait for purple candle below EMA 200, then enter SELL when signal appears
Use appropriate risk management and position sizing
Best Practices
Works best on timeframes M15 and higher
Suitable for Forex, Gold, Crypto, and Stock markets
Consider market volatility when setting stop-loss and take-profit levels
Use in conjunction with proper risk management strategies
Technical Details
Overlay: True (plots directly on price chart)
Calculation: Based on RSI momentum and EMA trend analysis
Signal Logic: Combines momentum exhaustion with trend direction
Visual Feedback: Colored candles provide immediate market condition awareness
SectorRotationRadarThe Sector Rotation Radar is a powerful visual analysis tool designed to track the relative strength and momentum of a stock compared to a benchmark index and its associated sector ETF. It helps traders and investors identify where an asset stands within the broader market cycle and spot rotation patterns across sectors and timeframes.
🔧 Key Features:
Benchmark Comparison: Measures the relative performance (strength and momentum) of the current symbol against a chosen benchmark (default: SPX), highlighting over- or underperformance.
Automatic Sector Detection: Automatically links stocks to their relevant sector ETFs (e.g., XLK, XLF, XLU), based on an extensive internal symbol map.
Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Supports simultaneous comparison across the current, next, and even third-higher timeframes (e.g., Daily → Weekly → Monthly), providing a bigger-picture perspective of trend shifts.
Tail Visualization: Displays a "trail" of price behavior over time, visualizing how the asset has moved in terms of relative strength and momentum across a user-defined period.
Quadrant-Based Layout: The chart is divided into four dynamic main zones, each representing a phase in the strength/momentum cycle:
🔄 Improving: Gaining strength and momentum
🚀 Leading: High strength and high momentum — top performers
💤 Weakening: Losing momentum while still strong
🐢 Lagging: Low strength and low momentum — underperformers
Clean Chart Visualization:
Background grid with axis labels
Dynamic tails and data points for each symbol
Option to include the associated sector ETF for context
Descriptive labels showing exact strength/momentum values per point
⚙️ Customization Options:
Benchmark Selector: Choose any symbol to compare against (e.g., SPX, Nasdaq, custom index)
Start Date Control: Option to fix a historical start point or use the current data range
Trail Length: Set the number of previous data points to display
Additional Timeframes: Enable analysis of one or two higher timeframes beyond the current
Sector ETF Display: Toggle to show or hide the related sector ETF alongside the asset
📚 Technical Architecture:
The indicator relies on external modules for:
Statistical modeling
Relative strength and momentum calculations
Chart rendering and label drawing
These components work together to compute and display a dynamic, real-time map of asset performance over time.
🧠 Use Case:
Sector Rotation Radar is ideal for traders looking to:
Spot stocks or sectors rotating into strength or weakness
Confirm alignment across multiple timeframes
Identify sector leaders and laggards
Understand how a symbol is positioned relative to the broader market and its peers
This tool is especially valuable for swing traders, sector rotation strategies, and macro-aware investors who want a visual edge in decision-making.
SuperSmoothed Volume Zone Oscillator------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SUPERSMOOTHED VOLUME ZONE OSCILLATOR (SSVZO)
TECHNICAL INDICATOR DOCUMENTATION
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Table of Contents:
1. Original VZO Background
2. SuperSmoother Technology
3. SSVZO Components
3.1. Main SSVZO Oscillator
3.2. Momentum Velocity Component
3.3. Adaptive Levels
3.4. Static Levels
3.5. Trend Shift Detection
3.6. Glow Effect Visualization
4. References & Further Reading
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1. ORIGINAL VOLUME ZONE OSCILLATOR (VZO) BACKGROUND
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Creator: Walid Khalil (November 2009, Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities)
History: Khalil designed the VZO to address limitations in other volume indicators
by focusing on the relative balance between buying and selling volume while filtering
out market noise. The indicator identifies accumulation and distribution patterns.
Traditional Usage: The classic VZO uses a 14-period calculation setting and is
interpreted on a scale from -60% to +60%:
- Readings above +40% indicate strong buying pressure (potential overbought)
- Readings below -40% indicate strong selling pressure (potential oversold)
- The zero line acts as a key reference for trend changes
- Divergences between VZO and price offer valuable trading signals
Difference from Other Volume Indicators: Unlike simple volume indicators that only
track total volume, the VZO tracks the relative difference between up-volume and
down-volume, more effectively identifying buying/selling pressure imbalances and
potential reversal points.
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2. SUPERSMOOTHER FILTER TECHNOLOGY
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Creator: John F. Ehlers, an engineer specializing in digital signal processing for
trading systems.
Origins: Introduced in "Rocket Science for Traders" (2001) and refined in "Cybernetic
Analysis for Stocks and Futures" (2004). Represents the application of digital signal
processing techniques to financial markets.
Technical Foundation: The SuperSmoother is a two-pole low-pass filter specifically
designed to eliminate noise while preserving the underlying signal. It combines
principles of Butterworth and Gaussian filters to minimize both phase shift and
passband ripple.
Mathematical Implementation:
a1 = exp(-π * sqrt(2) / period)
b1 = 2 * a1 * cos(sqrt(2) * π / period)
c2 = b1
c3 = -a1²
c1 = 1 - c2 - c3
Advantages Over Traditional Filters:
- Reduces lag compared to simple moving averages
- Eliminates high-frequency market noise more effectively
- Minimizes unwanted ripples in the output signal
- Preserves important turning points in the data
- Superior handling of sudden market movements
According to Ehlers: "Conventional moving averages are plagued by excessive lag and/or
rippling in their passband. The SuperSmoother eliminates virtually all of this ripple
and has excellent transient response characteristics." (TASC Magazine, 2014)
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3. SSVZO COMPONENTS
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3.1. MAIN SSVZO OSCILLATOR
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Description: The core component measuring buying vs. selling volume pressure using
the SuperSmoother filter for enhanced noise reduction.
Calculation: SSVZO analyzes the relationship between up-volume (volume on rising
prices) and down-volume (volume on falling prices), applying exponential moving
averages to both components, then calculating their relative strength. The
SuperSmoother filter reduces market noise while preserving the underlying trend signal.
Implementation Advantage: By applying the SuperSmoother filter to the VZO calculation,
the SSVZO provides significantly cleaner signals with fewer false crossovers and more
accurate identification of true trend changes.
Interpretation:
- Values above zero indicate bullish volume dominance
- Values below zero indicate bearish volume dominance
- Readings above +60 suggest overbought conditions
- Readings below -60 suggest oversold conditions
- Crossovers of the zero line signal potential trend changes
Trading Application: Use SSVZO as a primary volume-based momentum indicator to
confirm price trends, identify divergences, and spot potential reversal zones.
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3.2. MOMENTUM VELOCITY COMPONENT
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Description: A histogram displaying the rate of change of momentum, showing how
quickly buying or selling pressure is accelerating or decelerating.
Calculation: Derived from price momentum over a user-defined period, with optional
adaptive filtering that adjusts sensitivity based on market volatility. The velocity
component shows the first derivative of momentum – essentially the "acceleration" of
market movement.
Technical Origin: Inspired by Ehlers' work on Hilbert Transforms and research on
cyclic components in financial markets, as detailed in "Cycle Analytics for Traders"
(2013).
Interpretation:
- Positive readings (teal bars) indicate accelerating upward momentum
- Negative readings (orange bars) suggest accelerating downward momentum
- Larger bars indicate stronger momentum acceleration
- Shrinking bars signal momentum deceleration
Trading Application: Use as an early warning system for potential trend exhaustion
or confirmation of a new trending move. When momentum velocity diverges from price,
it often precedes a reversal.
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3.3. ADAPTIVE LEVELS
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Description: Dynamic overbought and oversold boundaries that adjust to market
conditions, providing context-aware trading signals.
Calculation: Uses statistical methods based on the standard deviation of the SSVZO
values over a longer period. These levels automatically widen during higher volatility
periods and narrow during consolidation.
Research Base: Draws from Perry Kaufman's work on Adaptive Moving Averages (AMA) and
Bollinger's research on dynamic volatility bands, as published in "Trading Systems
and Methods" (2013).
Interpretation:
- Adaptive Overbought (dotted circles above): Dynamic ceiling that expands/contracts
based on market volatility
- Adaptive Oversold (dotted circles below): Dynamic floor that expands/contracts based
on market volatility
Trading Application: More reliable for identifying extremes than static levels,
particularly in changing market conditions or different instruments. Touching these
levels often provides higher-probability reversal signals.
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3.4. STATIC LEVELS
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Description: Fixed overbought and oversold horizontal lines that provide consistent
reference points for excess market conditions.
Calculation: Preset at +60 (overbought) and -60 (oversold) based on historical
analysis of volume behavior across multiple markets, extending the classic VZO range.
Interpretation:
- Readings above +60 suggest potential buying exhaustion
- Readings below -60 indicate potential selling exhaustion
- Duration spent beyond these levels correlates with reversal probability
Trading Application: Use as baseline reference points for extreme conditions. Most
effective when combined with other confirmation signals like divergences or
candlestick patterns.
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3.5. TREND SHIFT DETECTION
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Description: Visual markers and optional background shading highlighting potential
trend changes when the SSVZO crosses the zero line.
Calculation: Based on mathematical crossovers of the SSVZO value above or below the
zero line, with pattern recognition to reduce false signals.
Research Foundation: Incorporates concepts from Dr. Alexander Elder's "triple screen
trading system" and Mark Chaikin's volume-based trend identification research.
Interpretation:
- Upward triangles indicate bullish trend shifts (SSVZO crossing above zero)
- Downward triangles indicate bearish trend shifts (SSVZO crossing below zero)
- Background shading emphasizes the new trend direction
Trading Application: These signals often precede price trend changes and can serve
as entry triggers when aligned with the higher timeframe trend.
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3.6. GLOW EFFECT VISUALIZATION
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Description: An aesthetic enhancement creating a gradient "glow" around the main SSVZO
line, improving visual clarity and emphasizing signal strength.
Calculation: Generated using percentage-based bands around the main SSVZO value, with
multiple translucent layers to create a subtle illumination effect.
Design Inspiration: Inspired by modern UI/UX design principles for financial
dashboards and the MATS (Moving Average Trend Sniper) indicator's visual presentation,
enhancing perception of signal strength through visual intensity.
Interpretation:
- Teal glow indicates positive SSVZO values (bullish)
- Orange glow indicates negative SSVZO values (bearish)
- Glow intensity correlates with the strength of the signal
Trading Application: Beyond aesthetics, the glow creates visual emphasis that makes
trend direction, strength, and changes more immediately apparent, particularly useful
during fast-moving market conditions.
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4. REFERENCES & FURTHER READING
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1. Ehlers, J. F. (2001). "Rocket Science for Traders: Digital Signal Processing
Applications." John Wiley & Sons.
2. Ehlers, J. F. (2004). "Cybernetic Analysis for Stocks and Futures: Cutting-Edge
DSP Technology to Improve Your Trading." John Wiley & Sons.
3. Ehlers, J. F. (2013). "Cycle Analytics for Traders: Advanced Technical Trading
Concepts." John Wiley & Sons.
4. Khalil, W. (2009). "The Volume Zone Oscillator." Technical Analysis of Stocks &
Commodities, November 2009.
5. Kaufman, P. J. (2013). "Trading Systems and Methods." 5th Edition, Wiley Trading.
6. Elder, A. (2002). "Come Into My Trading Room: A Complete Guide to Trading."
John Wiley & Sons.
7. Bollinger, J. (2002). "Bollinger on Bollinger Bands." McGraw-Hill Education.
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END OF DOCUMENTATION
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