Buy When There's Blood in the Streets StrategyStatistical Analysis of Drawdowns in Stock Markets
Drawdowns, defined as the decline from a peak to a trough in asset prices, are an essential measure of risk and market dynamics. Their statistical properties provide insights into market behavior during extreme stress periods.
Distribution of Drawdowns: Research suggests that drawdowns follow a power-law distribution, implying that large drawdowns, while rare, are more frequent than expected under normal distributions (Sornette et al., 2003).
Impacts of Extreme Drawdowns: During significant drawdowns (e.g., financial crises), the average recovery time is significantly longer, highlighting market inefficiencies and behavioral biases. For example, the 2008 financial crisis led to a 57% drawdown in the S&P 500, requiring years to recover (Cont, 2001).
Using Standard Deviations: Drawdowns exceeding two or three standard deviations from their historical mean are often indicative of market overreaction or capitulation, creating contrarian investment opportunities (Taleb, 2007).
Behavioral Finance Perspective: Investors often exhibit panic-selling during drawdowns, leading to oversold conditions that can be exploited using statistical thresholds like standard deviations (Kahneman, 2011).
Practical Implications: Studies on mean reversion show that extreme drawdowns are frequently followed by periods of recovery, especially in equity markets. This underpins strategies that "buy the dip" under specific, statistically derived conditions (Jegadeesh & Titman, 1993).
References:
Sornette, D., & Johansen, A. (2003). Stock market crashes and endogenous dynamics.
Cont, R. (2001). Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues. Quantitative Finance.
Taleb, N. N. (2007). The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.
Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow.
Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency.
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DMI Delta by 0xjcfOverview
This indicator integrates the Directional Movement Index (DMI), Average Directional Index (ADX), and volume analysis into an Oscillator designed to help traders identify divergence-based trading signals. Unlike typical volume or momentum indicators, this combination provides insight into directional momentum and volume intensity, allowing traders to make well-informed decisions based on multiple facets of market behavior.
Purpose and How Components Work Together
By combining DMI and ADX with volume analysis, this indicator helps traders detect when momentum diverges from price action—a common precursor to potential reversals or significant moves. The ADX filter enhances this by distinguishing trending from range-bound conditions, while volume analysis highlights moments of extreme sentiment, such as solid buying or selling. Together, these elements provide traders with a comprehensive view of market strength, directional bias, and volume surges, which help filter out weaker signals.
Key Features
DMI Delta and Oscillator: The DMI indicator measures directional movement by comparing DI+ and DI- values. This difference (DMI Delta) is calculated and displayed as a histogram, visualizing changes in directional bias. When combined with ADX filtering, this histogram helps traders gauge the strength of momentum and spot directional shifts early. For instance, a rising histogram in a bearish price trend might signal a potential bullish reversal.
Volume Analysis with Extremes: Volume is monitored to reveal when market participation is unusually high, using a customizable multiplier to highlight significant volume spikes. These extreme levels are color-coded directly on the histogram, providing visual cues on whether buying or selling interest is particularly strong. Volume analysis adds depth to the directional insights from DMI, allowing traders to differentiate between regular and powerful moves.
ADX Trending Filter: The ADX component filters trends by measuring the overall strength of a price move, with a default threshold of 25. When ADX is above this level, it suggests that the market is trending strongly, making the DMI Delta readings more reliable. Below this threshold, the market is likely range-bound, cautioning traders that signals might not have as much follow-through.
Using the Indicator in Divergence Strategies
This indicator excels in divergence strategies by highlighting moments when price action diverges from directional momentum. Here’s how it aids in decision-making:
Bullish Divergence: If the price is falling to new lows while the DMI Delta histogram rises, it can indicate weakening bearish momentum and signal a potential price reversal to the upside.
Bearish Divergence: Conversely, if prices are climbing but the DMI Delta histogram falls, it may point to waning bullish momentum, suggesting a bearish reversal.
Visual Cues and Customization
The color-coded output enhances usability:
Bright Green/Red: Extreme volume with strong bullish or bearish signals, often at points of high potential for trend continuation or reversal.
Green/Red Shades: These shades reflect trending conditions (bullish or bearish) based on ADX, factoring in volume. Green signals a bullish trend, and red is a bearish trend.
Blue/Orange Shades: Indicates non-trending or weaker conditions, suggesting a more cautious approach in range-bound markets.
Customizable for Diverse Trading Styles
This indicator allows users to adjust settings like the ADX threshold and volume multiplier to optimize performance for various timeframes and strategies. Whether a trader prefers swing trading or intraday scalping, these parameters enable fine-tuning to enhance signal reliability across different market contexts.
Practical Usage Tips
Entry and Exit Signals: Use this indicator in conjunction with price action. Divergences between the price and DMI Delta histogram can reinforce entry or exit decisions.
Adjust Thresholds: Based on backtesting, customize the ADX Trending Threshold and Volume Multiplier to ensure optimal performance on different timeframes or trading styles.
In summary, this indicator is tailored for traders seeking a multi-dimensional approach to market analysis. It blends momentum, trend strength, and volume insights to support divergence-based strategies, helping traders confidently make informed decisions. Remember to validate signals through backtesting and use it alongside price action for the best results.
Entropy-Based Adaptive SuperTrendOverview:
Introducing the Entropy-Based Adaptive SuperTrend – a groundbreaking trading indicator designed to adapt dynamically to market conditions using market entropy. This enhanced SuperTrend indicator adjusts its sensitivity according to the level of chaos (or order) in price movements, providing more stable signals during volatile periods and more responsive signals when the market becomes orderly.
Key Features:
Entropy-Adaptive Mechanism: By incorporating an entropy measure, this indicator estimates the degree of unpredictability in the market. During high entropy periods (more chaotic), signals are made less sensitive, while during low entropy periods, the indicator reacts more quickly to price changes.
Adaptive ATR Multiplier: Unlike traditional SuperTrend indicators that use a fixed ATR multiplier, this version calculates a dynamic ATR multiplier based on the entropy score, ensuring more flexibility and adaptability in setting stop levels.
Visual Clarity: The indicator is overlayed on the price chart with customizable visual elements. The bullish and bearish trends are color-coded for ease of use, and optional entry signals ("L" for long and "S" for short) are plotted to clearly mark potential entry opportunities.
Alerts for Key Opportunities : Never miss an opportunity with built-in alerts for buy and sell signals. Traders can easily configure these alerts to be notified instantly when market conditions trigger a new trend.
How It Works:
Entropy Calculation: The entropy of the price data is calculated over a user-defined period, giving an indication of the degree of randomness in the price movements. The result is then smoothed to reduce noise and create a meaningful trend indication.
Dynamic ATR Adjustment: The ATR (Average True Range) multiplier, which controls the distance of the trailing stop, is adjusted based on the entropy score. This allows the SuperTrend line to widen in chaotic times, reducing false signals, while tightening in orderly times, allowing quicker trend captures.
Parameters Explained:
Entropy Settings: Control the sensitivity of entropy calculations, including the look-back period, number of bins for price distribution, and smoothing length.
Adaptive Settings: Adjust how the indicator adapts to different levels of entropy, including the adaptation period and the filtering weight.
SuperTrend Settings : Customize the ATR period and the dynamic multiplier range to fine-tune the trailing stops for your trading style.
Visual Settings: Choose your preferred colors for bullish and bearish trends, and decide if you want the entry labels displayed directly on the chart.
Use Cases:
Swing Traders can utilize the indicator to capture trend reversals while filtering out the noise during high entropy periods.
Intraday Traders can adapt the settings for shorter time frames to benefit from dynamic adjustments that reduce overtrading and false signals.
Risk Management: The entropy-based adaptive feature provides an edge in risk management by reducing sensitivity during times of increased chaos, thus helping to limit unnecessary trades.
How to Use It:
Look for entry labels ("L" for long, "S" for short) to identify potential opportunities.
Use the color-coded trendlines to determine market bias: greenish hue for bullish trends, reddish hue for bearish trends.
Customize the input settings to align with your preferred market timeframe and risk profile.
Alerts & Notifications:
Built-in alerts notify you of significant trend changes. Simply enable these alerts to receive updates when a new long or short opportunity is detected, helping you stay ahead without needing to watch the screen constantly.
Customization Tips:
Longer Timeframes : Increase the Entropy Period to better capture macro trends in high timeframe charts.
Higher Volatility Markets: Increase the ATR Max Multiplier to ensure stops are set farther away during high entropy.
Lower Volatility Markets: Use a lower ATR Base Multiplier and tighter entropy thresholds to capture rapid price movements.
Final Thoughts:
The Entropy-Based Adaptive SuperTrend indicator merges traditional trend-following logic with an adaptive mechanism driven by market entropy, aiming to address the challenges of whipsaws and false signals common in conventional SuperTrend setups. This indicator offers an intelligent and flexible way to track market trends, suitable for both beginners and experienced trade
Fear Greed Zones by Relative Strength IndexThis is a visual modification of the relative Strength Index (RSI) to express extreme areas as fear and greed Zones.
// Input
rsiLength = input.int(14, "RSI Length", minval=1)
// RSI calculation
rsi = ta.rsi(close, rsiLength)
FEAR GREED ZONES
The "Fear Greed Zones Script" indicator is designed to help traders identify psychological levels of fear and greed in the market by utilising relative strength index. It primarily utilises the Relative Strength Index of price to gauge market sentiment, with the following key features:
Color-Codes
Dark Red: Indicates a greed zone , suggesting extreme overbought conditions (high risk) and a possible price reversal downward.
Dark Green: Represents a fear zone, indicating extreme oversold conditions (low risk) and potential for price reversal upward.
Yellow: Serves as a neutral zone with medium risk.
Usage
Market Sentiment Analysis: Traders can use the fear and greed zones to assess overall market sentiment, aligning their strategies with prevailing emotional biases. This helps in identifying potential entry and exit points based on market psychology.
Risk Management: Understanding fear or greed influences market behavior and allows traders to manage their risk more effectively with the knowledge of high or low risk areas; as they can anticipate potential reversals or continuations in price trends.
Conclusion
The "Fear Greed Zones" Script is a valuable tool for traders looking to leverage market psychology. By clearly identifying areas where fear or greed may be influencing price movements, it aids in making more informed trading decisions.
Precision Cloud by Dr ABIRAM SIVPRASAD
Precision Cloud by Dr. Abhiram Sivprasad"
The " Precision Cloud" script, created by Dr. Abhiram Sivprasad, is a multi-purpose technical analysis tool designed for Forex, Bitcoin, Commodities, Stocks, and Options trading. It focuses on identifying key levels of support and resistance, combined with moving averages (EMAs) and central pivot ranges (CPR), to help traders make informed trading decisions. The script also provides a visual "light system" to highlight potential long or short positions, aiding traders in entering trades with a clear strategy.
Key Features of the Script:
Central Pivot Range (CPR):
The CPR is calculated as the average of the high, low, and close of the price, while the top and bottom pivots are derived from it. These act as dynamic support and resistance zones.
The script can plot daily CPR, support, and resistance levels (S1/R1, S2/R2, S3/R3) as well as optional weekly and monthly pivot points.
The CPR helps identify whether the price is in a bullish, bearish, or neutral zone.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Three daily support (S1, S2, S3) and resistance (R1, R2, R3) levels are plotted based on the CPR.
These levels act as potential reversal or breakout points, allowing traders to make decisions around key price points.
EMA (Exponential Moving Averages):
The script includes two customizable EMAs (default periods of 9 and 21). You can choose the source for these EMAs (open, high, low, or close).
The crossovers between EMA1 and EMA2 help identify potential trend reversals or momentum shifts.
Lagging Span:
The Lagging Span is plotted with a customizable displacement (default 26), which helps identify overall trend direction by comparing past price with the current price.
Light System:
A color-coded table provides a visual representation of market conditions:
Green indicates bullish signals (e.g., price above CPR, EMAs aligning positively).
Red indicates bearish signals (e.g., price below CPR, EMAs aligning negatively).
Yellow indicates neutral conditions, where there is no clear trend direction.
The system includes lights for CPR, EMA, Long Position, and Short Position, helping traders quickly assess whether the market is in a buying or selling opportunity.
Trading Strategies Using the Script
1. Forex Trading:
Trend-Following with EMAs: Use the EMA crossovers to capture trending markets in Forex. A green light for the EMA combined with a price above the daily or weekly pivot levels suggests a buying opportunity. Conversely, if the EMA light turns red and price falls below the CPR levels, look for shorting opportunities.
Reversal Strategy: Watch for price action near the daily S1/R1 levels. If price holds above S1 and the EMA is green, this could signal a reversal from support. The same applies to resistance levels.
2. Bitcoin Trading:
Momentum Breakouts: Bitcoin is known for its sharp moves. The script helps to identify breakouts from the CPR range. If the price breaks above the TC (Top Central Pivot) with bullish EMA alignment (green light), it could signal a strong uptrend.
Lagging Span Confirmation: Use the Lagging Span to confirm the trend direction. For Bitcoin's volatility, when the lagging span shows consistent alignment with the price and CPR, it often indicates continuation of the trend.
3. Commodities Trading:
Support/Resistance Bounce: Commodities such as gold and oil often react well to pivot levels. Look for price bouncing off S1 or R1 for potential entry points. A green CPR light along with price above the pivot range supports a bullish bias.
EMA Pullback Strategy: If price moves in a strong trend and pulls back to one of the EMAs, a green EMA light suggests re-entry on a pullback. If the EMA light is red and price breaks below the BC (Bottom Central Pivot), short positions could be considered.
4. Stocks Trading:
Long Position Strategy: For stocks, use the combination of the long position light turning green (price above TC and EMA alignment) as a signal to buy. This could be especially useful for riding bullish trends in growth stocks or during earnings seasons when volatility is high.
Short Position Strategy: If the short position light turns green, indicating price below BC and EMAs turning bearish, this could be an ideal setup for shorting overvalued stocks or during market corrections.
5. Options Trading:
Directional Bias for Options: The light system is particularly helpful for options traders. A green long position light provides a clear signal to buy call options, while a green short position light supports buying puts.
Pivot Breakout Strategy: Buy options (calls or puts) when the price breaks above resistance or below support, with confirmation from the CPR and EMA lights. This helps capture the sharp moves required for profitable options trades.
Conclusion
The S&R Precision Cloud script is a versatile tool for traders across markets, including Forex, Bitcoin, Commodities, Stocks, and Options. It combines critical technical elements like pivot ranges, support and resistance levels, EMAs, and the Lagging Span to provide a clear picture of market conditions. The intuitive light system helps traders quickly assess whether to take a long or short position, making it an excellent tool for both new and experienced traders.
The S&R Precision Cloud by Dr. Abhiram Sivprasad script is a technical analysis tool designed to assist traders in making informed decisions. However, it should not be interpreted as financial or investment advice. The signals generated by the script are based on historical price data and technical indicators, which are inherently subject to market fluctuations and do not guarantee future performance.
Trading in Forex, Bitcoin, Commodities, Stocks, and Options carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. You should be aware of the risks involved and be willing to accept them before engaging in such activities. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor or professional before making any trading decisions.
The creators of this script are not responsible for any financial losses that may occur from its use. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and the use of this script is at your own risk.
Winning and Losing StreaksThe Pine Script indicator "Winning and Losing Streaks" tracks and visualizes the length of consecutive winning and losing streaks in a financial series, such as stock prices. Here’s a detailed description of the indicator, including the relevance of statistical analysis and streak tracking.
Indicator Description
The "Winning and Losing Streaks" indicator in Pine Script is designed to analyze and display streaks of consecutive winning and losing days in trading data. It helps traders and analysts understand the persistence of trends in price movements.
Here’s how it functions:
Streak Calculation:
Winning Streak: A series of consecutive days where the closing price is higher than the previous day's closing price.
Losing Streak: A series of consecutive days where the closing price is lower than the previous day's closing price.
Doji Candles: The indicator also considers Doji candles, where the difference between the opening and closing prices is minimal relative to the high-low range, and excludes these from being counted as winning or losing days.
Statistical Analysis:
The indicator computes the maximum and average lengths of winning and losing streaks.
It also tracks the current streak lengths and maintains arrays to store the historical streak data.
Visualization:
Histograms: Winning and losing streaks are visualized using histograms, which provide a clear graphical representation of streak lengths over time.
Relevance of Statistical Analysis and Streak Tracking
1. Statistical Significance of Streaks
Tracking winning and losing streaks has significant statistical implications for trading strategies and risk management:
Autocorrelation: Streaks in financial time series can reveal autocorrelation, where past returns influence future returns. Studies have shown that financial time series often exhibit autocorrelation, which can be used to forecast future price movements (Lo, 1991; Jegadeesh & Titman, 1993). Understanding streaks helps in identifying and leveraging these patterns.
Behavioral Finance: Streak analysis aligns with concepts from behavioral finance, such as the "hot-hand fallacy," where investors may perceive trends as more persistent than they are (Gilovich, Vallone, & Tversky, 1985). Statistical streak analysis provides a more objective view of trend persistence, helping to avoid biases.
2. Risk Management and Strategy Development
Risk Assessment: Identifying the length and frequency of losing streaks is crucial for managing risk and adjusting trading strategies. Long losing streaks can indicate potential strategy weaknesses or market regime changes, prompting a reassessment of trading rules and risk management practices (Brock, Lakonishok, & LeBaron, 1992).
Strategy Optimization: Statistical analysis of streaks can aid in optimizing trading strategies. For example, understanding the average length of winning and losing streaks can help in setting more effective stop-loss and take-profit levels, as well as in determining the optimal position sizing (Fama & French, 1993).
Scientific References:
Lo, A. W. (1991). "Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Prices." Econometrica, 59(5), 1279-1313. This paper discusses the presence of long-term memory in stock prices, which is relevant for understanding the persistence of streaks.
Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency." Journal of Finance, 48(1), 65-91. This study explores momentum and reversal strategies, which are related to the concept of streaks.
Gilovich, T., Vallone, R., & Tversky, A. (1985). "The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences." Cognitive Psychology, 17(3), 295-314. This paper provides insight into the psychological aspects of streaks and persistence.
Brock, W., Lakonishok, J., & LeBaron, B. (1992). "Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns." Journal of Finance, 47(5), 1731-1764. This research examines the effectiveness of technical trading rules, relevant for streak-based strategies.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1993). "Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds." Journal of Financial Economics, 33(1), 3-56. This paper provides a foundation for understanding risk factors and strategy performance.
By analyzing streaks, traders can gain valuable insights into market dynamics and refine their trading strategies based on empirical evidence.
Multi Deviation Scaled Moving Average [ChartPrime]Multi Deviation Scaled Moving Average ChartPrime
⯁ OVERVIEW
The Multi Deviation Scaled Moving Average is an analysis tool that combines multiple Deviation Scaled Moving Averages (DSMAs) to provide a comprehensive view of market trends. The DSMA, originally created by John Ehlers, is a sophisticated moving average that adapts to market volatility. This indicator offers a unique approach to trend analysis by utilizing a series of DSMAs with different periods and presenting the results through a color-coded line and a visual histogram.
◆ KEY FEATURES
Multiple DSMA Calculation: Computes eight DSMAs with incrementally increasing periods for multi-faceted trend analysis.
Trend Strength Visualization: Provides a color-coded moving average line indicating trend strength and direction.
Trend Percentage Histogram: Displays a visual representation of bullish vs bearish trend percentages.
Signal Generation: Identifies potential entry and exit points based on trend strength crossovers.
Customizable Parameters: Allows users to adjust the base period and sensitivity of the indicator.
◆ USAGE
Trend Direction and Strength: The color and intensity of the main indicator line provide quick insights into the current trend.
Trend Percentage Histogram: The histogram value can give you an idea of the market trend ahead
Entry and Exit Signals: Diamond-shaped markers indicate potential trade entry and exit points based on trend strength shifts.
Trend Bias Assessment: The trend percentage histogram offers a visual representation of the overall market bias.
Multi-Timeframe Analysis: By applying the indicator to different timeframes, traders can gain insights into trends across various time horizons.
⯁ USER INPUTS
Period: Sets the initial calculation period for the DSMAs (default: 30).
Sensitivity: Adjusts the step size between DSMA periods. Lower values increase sensitivity (default: 60, range: 0-100).
Source: Uses HLC3 (High, Low, Close average) as the default price source.
The Multi Deviation Scaled Moving Average indicator offers traders a sophisticated tool for trend analysis and signal generation. By combining multiple DSMAs and providing clear visual cues, it enables traders to make more informed decisions about market direction and potential entry or exit points. The indicator's customizable parameters allow for fine-tuning to suit various trading styles and market conditions.
CRT Hourly/15m dividers and opensRange Separator is a unique tool designed to help traders visualize critical price levels and ranges on their charts. This script employs the innovative concepts of "Candles Are Ranges" and the "Power of 3 (PO3)" to enhance trading strategies by marking key time intervals and price levels.
What the Script Does:
Hourly Lines:
Automatically draws vertical lines at the start of each hour.
Provides an option to display only the current hour's line for a cleaner visual.
Allows customization of line color, width, and style.
15-Minute Lines:
Adds vertical lines at 15-minute intervals to highlight smaller time ranges.
Includes an option to draw horizontal lines at the 15-minute interval prices.
Offers customization for line color, width, and style.
Horizontal Lines:
Draws horizontal lines based on the opening, high, or low price of the selected timeframe.
Customizable options for line color, width, and style.
How the Script Works:
Candles Are Ranges: Each candle represents a price range (OHLC) on any timeframe. The script visually emphasizes these ranges, helping traders understand price action better.
Power of 3 (PO3): This concept divides price delivery into three stages: formation, turtle soup (stop hunting), and distribution/expansion. The script marks these intervals, aiding in identifying potential key levels for entries and exits.
How to Use the Script:
Adding the Script:
Apply the script to your chart and adjust the settings in the input menu.
Customize the appearance of hourly and 15-minute lines to suit your preference.
Analyzing the Chart:
Observe the hourly lines to determine higher timeframe biases.
Use 15-minute lines to identify more granular price movements.
Pay attention to horizontal lines that mark significant price levels based on your chosen criteria (open, high, low).
Trading Strategy:
Combine the script's visual aids with your understanding of the "Candles Are Ranges" and "Power of 3" concepts.
Use these visual cues to make informed decisions about potential entry and exit points.
What Makes it Original:
Integration of Candles Are Ranges and PO3 Concepts: Unlike traditional scripts that merely plot lines, this script uniquely integrates two powerful trading theories to provide a comprehensive view of price action.
Customizable Visual Aids: Offers extensive customization options for line colors, widths, and styles, allowing traders to tailor the script to their specific needs.
Enhanced Timeframe Analysis: By marking both hourly and 15-minute intervals, the script provides a detailed view of price ranges across multiple timeframes, enhancing the trader's ability to make informed decisions.
- Key script Parameters
Show Hourly Lines: Toggles the display of vertical lines marking each hour.
Hourly Lines Color: Sets the color of the hourly vertical lines.
Hourly Lines Width: Chooses the width of the hourly vertical lines (1, 2, or 3).
Hourly Lines Style: Selects the style of the hourly lines (Solid, Dashed, or Dotted).
Horizontal Line Color: Defines the color of the horizontal lines drawn at hourly intervals.
Horizontal Line Width: Determines the width of the horizontal lines (1, 2, or 3).
Horizontal Line Style: Sets the style of the horizontal lines (Solid, Dashed, or Dotted).
Horizontal Line Start Price: Specifies which price (Open, High, Low) the horizontal lines will start from.
Show Current Hour Only: Limits the display to only the current hour's horizontal line.
Show 15-Minute Lines: Toggles the display of vertical lines marking each 15-minute interval.
15-Minute Lines Color: Sets the color of the 15-minute vertical lines.
15-Minute Lines Width: Chooses the width of the 15-minute vertical lines (1, 2, or 3).
15-Minute Lines Style: Selects the style of the 15-minute lines (Solid, Dashed, or Dotted).
Show 15-Minute Horizontal Lines: Toggles the display of horizontal lines at 15-minute intervals.
15-Minute Horizontal Lines Color: Defines the color of the horizontal lines drawn at 15-minute intervals.
15-Minute Horizontal Lines Width: Determines the width of the horizontal lines (1, 2, or 3).
15-Minute Horizontal Lines Style: Sets the style of the horizontal lines (Solid, Dashed, or Dotted).
Important Notes:
- Credit to @Yazdanian and his basic "Hourly separators" indicator that plots a simple vertical line every hour which provided the idea for this version and expanded on
- This script is designed to complement your trading strategy by providing visual aids and should be used alongside other technical analysis tools.
It is not intended to issue buy or sell signals but to help you understand price ranges and potential key levels.
Disclaimer: The script is provided as-is, and the authors are not responsible for any trading losses incurred using this script. Always perform your own analysis and use proper risk management.
Range Average Retest Model [LuxAlgo]The Range Average Retest Model tool highlights setups from the range average retest entry model, a model using the retest of the average between two opposite swing points as an entry.
This tool uses long-term volatility coupled with user-defined multipliers to filter out swing areas and set take profit and stop loss levels for all trades.
Key features include:
Draw up to 165 swing areas and their associated trades
Filter out swing areas using Pivot Length , Selection Mode and Threshold parameters
Filter out trades with Maximum Distance and Minimum Distance parameters
Enable or disable swing areas and select default colors
Enable or disable overlapping trades and change the default colors for Take Profit and Stop Loss zones
🔶 USAGE
The "Range Average Retest Model" is an entry model that enters a position when the price retests the average made between two swing points. Users can determine the period of the detected swing points from the "Pivot Length" setting.
The conditions for long or short trades, regardless of whether the swing area is bullish or bearish, are as follows:
Long positions: the current bar close is below the swing area average and the last bar close was above it.
Short positions: the current bar close is above the swing area average price and the last bar close was below it.
Each trade is displayed on the chart with a line connecting it to its swing area highlighting the range average, a green area for the take profit, and a red area for the stop loss.
Both the Take Profit and Stop Loss levels are calculated by applying your own multiplier in the settings panel to the long-term volatility measure, in this case, the average true range over the last 200 bars.
Trades will remain open until they reach either the Stop Loss or Take Profit price levels.
🔹 Filtering Swing Areas
The daily chart of the Nasdaq-100 futures (NQ) with pivot length 2 and bullish selection mode: it only detects bullish swing areas, but they are smaller and more numerous.
Traders can manipulate the behavior of the swing areas from the settings panel.
The Selection mode will filter areas by bias: it will detect bullish areas, bearish areas, or both.
The Threshold parameter is applied to the long-term volatility to filter out areas where the average prices are too close together; the higher the value, the greater the difference between the average prices must be.
🔹 Trades
3-minute chart of the Nasdaq-100 futures (NQ) with pivot length 5, bearish selection mode maximum distance 4, and stop loss 2: many trades detected with very asymmetric risk/reward.
The behavior of the trades is also manipulated from the settings panel.
The maximum and minimum distance parameters specify the number of bars a trade must be away from a swing area.
The Take Profit and Stop Loss parameters are applied to the long-term volatility to obtain their respective price levels.
🔹 Overlapping Trades
Same chart as before, but with overlapping trades: messy, right?
By default the tool does not show overlapping trades, this allows for a cleaner chart.
In the settings panel traders can enable overlapping mode, in which case the tool will show all available trades.
Traders must be aware that the chart can be very crowded.
🔶 SETTINGS
🔹 Swings
Pivot Length: How many bars are used to confirm a swing point. The larger this parameter is, the larger and fewer swing areas will be detected.
Selection Mode: Swing area detection mode, detect only bullish swings, only bearish swings, or both.
Threshold: Swing area comparator. This threshold is multiplied by a measure of volatility (average true range over the last 200 bars), for a new swing area to be detected it must have an average level that is sufficiently distant from the average level of any untouched swing area, this parameter controls that distance.
🔹 Trades
Maximum distance: Maximum distance allowed between a swing area and a trade.
Minimum distance: Minimum distance allowed between a swing area and a trade.
Take profit: The size of the take profit - this threshold is multiplied by a measure of volatility (the average true range over the last 200 bars).
Stop loss: The size of the stop-loss: this threshold is multiplied by a measure of volatility (the average true range over the last 200 bars).
Fib Pivot Points HLThis TradingView indicator allows users to select a specific timeframe (TF) and then analyzes the high, low, and closing prices from the past period within that TF to calculate a central pivot point. The pivot point is determined using the formula (High + Close + Low) / 3, providing a key level around which the market is expected to pivot or change direction.
In addition to the central pivot point, the indicator enhances its utility by incorporating Fibonacci levels. These levels are calculated based on the range from the low to the high of the selected timeframe. For instance, a Fibonacci level like R0.38 would be calculated by adding 38% of the high-low range to the pivot point, giving traders potential resistance levels above the pivot.
Key features of this indicator include:
Timeframe Selection: Users can choose their desired timeframe, such as weekly, daily, etc., for analysis.
Pivot Point Calculation: The indicator calculates the pivot point based on the previous period's high, low, and closing prices within the selected timeframe.
Fibonacci Levels: Adds Fibonacci retracement levels to the pivot point, offering traders additional layers of potential support and resistance based on the natural Fibonacci sequence.
This indicator is particularly useful for traders looking to identify potential turning points in the market and key levels of support and resistance based on historical price action and the Fibonacci sequence, which is widely regarded for its ability to predict market movements.
Example:
Suppose you're analyzing the EUR/USD currency pair using this indicator with a weekly timeframe setting. The previous week's price action showed a high of 1.2100, a low of 1.1900, and the week closed at 1.2000.
Using the formula ( High + Close + Low ) / 3 (High+Close+Low)/3, the pivot point would be calculated as ( 1.2100 + 1.2000 + 1.1900 ) / 3 = 1.2000. Thus, the central pivot point for the current week is at 1.2000.
The range from the low to the high is 1.2100 − 1.1900 = 0.0200 1.2100−1.1900=0.0200.
To calculate a specific Fibonacci level, such as R0.38, you would add 38% of the high-low range to the pivot point: 1.2000 + ( 0.0200 ∗ 0.38 ) = 1.2076 1.2000+(0.0200∗0.38)=1.2076. Thus, the R0.38 Fibonacci resistance level is at 1.2076.
Similarly, you can calculate other Fibonacci levels such as S0.38 (Support level at 38% retracement) by subtracting 38% of the high-low range from the pivot point.
Traders can use the pivot point as a reference for the market's directional bias: prices above the pivot point suggest bullish sentiment, while prices below indicate bearish sentiment. The Fibonacci levels act as potential stepping stones for price movements, offering strategic points for entry, exit, or placing stop-loss orders.
Ichimoku Clouds Strategy Long and ShortOverview:
The Ichimoku Clouds Strategy leverages the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo technique to offer traders a range of innovative features, enhancing market analysis and trading efficiency. This strategy is distinct in its combination of standard methodology and advanced customization, making it suitable for both novice and experienced traders.
Unique Features:
Enhanced Interpretation: The strategy introduces weak, neutral, and strong bullish/bearish signals, enabling detailed interpretation of the Ichimoku cloud and direct chart plotting.
Configurable Trading Periods: Users can tailor the strategy to specific market windows, adapting to different market conditions.
Dual Trading Modes: Long and Short modes are available, allowing alignment with market trends.
Flexible Risk Management: Offers three styles in each mode, combining fixed risk management with dynamic indicator states for versatile trade management.
Indicator Line Plotting: Enables plotting of Ichimoku indicator lines on the chart for visual decision-making support.
Methodology:
The strategy utilizes the standard Ichimoku Kinko Hyo model, interpreting indicator values with settings adjustable through a user-friendly menu. This approach is enhanced by TradingView's built-in strategy tester for customization and market selection.
Risk Management:
Our approach to risk management is dynamic and indicator-centric. With data from the last year, we focus on dynamic indicator states interpretations to mitigate manual setting causing human factor biases. Users still have the option to set a fixed stop loss and/or take profit per position using the corresponding parameters in settings, aligning with their risk tolerance.
Backtest Results:
Operating window: Date range of backtests is 2023.01.01 - 2024.01.04. It is chosen to let the strategy to close all opened positions.
Commission and Slippage: Includes a standard Binance commission of 0.1% and accounts for possible slippage over 5 ticks.
Maximum Single Position Loss: -6.29%
Maximum Single Profit: 22.32%
Net Profit: +10 901.95 USDT (+109.02%)
Total Trades: 119 (51.26% profitability)
Profit Factor: 1.775
Maximum Accumulated Loss: 4 185.37 USDT (-22.87%)
Average Profit per Trade: 91.67 USDT (+0.7%)
Average Trade Duration: 56 hours
These results are obtained with realistic parameters representing trading conditions observed at major exchanges such as Binance and with realistic trading portfolio usage parameters. Backtest is calculated using deep backtest option in TradingView built-in strategy tester
How to Use:
Add the script to favorites for easy access.
Apply to the desired chart and timeframe (optimal performance observed on the 1H chart, ForEx or cryptocurrency top-10 coins with quote asset USDT).
Configure settings using the dropdown choice list in the built-in menu.
Set up alerts to automate strategy positions through web hook with the text: {{strategy.order.alert_message}}
Disclaimer:
Educational and informational tool reflecting Skyrex commitment to informed trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Test strategies in a simulated environment before live implementation
Absolute Momentum (Time Series Momentum)Absolute momentum , also known as time series momentum , focuses on the trend of an asset's own past performance to predict its future performance. It involves analyzing an asset's own historical performance, rather than comparing it to other assets.
The strategy determines whether an asset's price is exhibiting an upward (positive momentum) or downward (negative momentum) trend by assessing the asset's return over a given period (standard look-back period: 12 months or approximately 250 trading days). Some studies recommend calculating momentum by deducting the corresponding Treasury bill rate from the measured performance.
Absolute Momentum Indicator
The Absolute Momentum Indicator displays the rolling 12-month performance (measured over 250 trading days) and plots it against a horizontal line representing 0%. If the indicator crosses above this line, it signifies positive absolute momentum, and conversely, crossing below indicates negative momentum. An additional, optional look-back period input field can be accessed through the settings.
Hint: This indicator is a simplified version, as some academic approaches measure absolute momentum by subtracting risk-free rates from the 12-month performance. However, even with higher rates, the values will still remain close to the 0% line.
Benefits of Absolute Momentum
Absolute momentum, which should not be confused with relative momentum or the momentum indicator, serves as a timing instrument for both individual assets and entire markets.
Gary Antonacci , a key contributor to the absolute momentum strategy (find study below), emphasizes its effectiveness in multi-asset portfolios and its importance in long-only investing. This is particularly evident in a) reducing downside volatility and b) mitigating behavioral biases.
Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen document significant 'time series momentum' across various asset classes, including equity index, currency, commodity, and bond futures, in 58 liquid instruments (find study below). There's a notable persistence in returns ranging from one to 12 months, which tends to partially reverse over longer periods. This pattern aligns with sentiment theories suggesting initial under-reaction followed by delayed over-reaction.
Despite its surprising ease of implementation, the academic community has successfully measured the effects of absolute momentum across decades and in every major asset class, including stocks, bonds, commodities, and foreign exchange (FX).
Strategies for Implementing Absolute Momentum:
To Buy a Stock:
Select a Look-Back Period: Choose a historical period to analyze the stock's performance. A common period is 12 months, but this can vary based on your investment strategy.
Calculate Excess Return: Determine the stock's excess return over this period. You can also assume a risk-free rate of "0" to simplify the process.
Evaluate Momentum:
If the excess return is positive, it indicates positive absolute momentum. This suggests the stock is in an upward trend and could be a good buying opportunity.
If the excess return is negative, it suggests negative momentum, and you might want to delay buying.
Consider further conditions: Align your decision with broader market trends, economic indicators, or fundamental analysis, for additional context.
To Sell a Stock You Own:
Regularly Monitor Performance: Use the same look-back period as for buying (e.g., 12 months) to regularly assess the stock's performance.
Check for Negative Momentum: Calculate the excess return for the look-back period. Again, you can assume a risk-free rate of "0" to simplify the process. If the stock shows negative momentum, it might be time to consider selling.
Consider further conditions:Align your decision with broader market trends, economic indicators, or fundamental analysis, for additional context.
Important note: Note: Entering a position (i.e., buying) based on positive absolute momentum doesn't necessarily mean you must sell it if it later exhibits negative absolute momentum. You can initiate a position using positive absolute momentum as an entry indicator and then continue holding it based on other criteria, such as fundamental analysis.
General Tips:
Reassessment Frequency: Decide how often you will reassess the momentum (monthly, quarterly, etc.).
Remember, while absolute momentum provides a systematic approach, it's recommendable to consider it as part of a broader investment strategy that includes diversification, risk management, fundamental analysis, etc.
Relevant Capital Market Studies:
Antonacci, Gary. "Absolute momentum: A simple rule-based strategy and universal trend-following overlay." Available at SSRN 2244633 (2013)
Moskowitz, Tobias J., Yao Hua Ooi, and Lasse Heje Pedersen. "Time series momentum." Journal of financial economics 104.2 (2012): 228-250
Candle Color RatioThe Candle Color Ratio indicator is designed to analyze the ratio of green (bullish) to red (bearish) candles over a specified lookback period. This ratio can offer insights into the prevailing market sentiment and potential trend reversals. The indicator calculates the number of green and red candles and provides two key metrics: the Green to Red Ratio and the Red to Green Ratio. Additionally, it allows users to set a threshold for these ratios to identify extreme sentiment conditions.
Calculations :
- Green Score and Red Score: The script first checks the color of the candles over a user-defined lookback period (up to 10 bars back). For each bar, it assesses whether the closing price is higher (green) or lower (red) than the opening price. The green and red scores are calculated by counting the number of green and red candles, respectively, within the lookback period.
- Green to Red Ratio: This metric is the ratio of the Green Score to the Red Score. It quantifies the relative prevalence of bullish candles compared to bearish candles within the specified lookback period. A higher Green to Red ratio indicates a stronger bullish sentiment.
- Red to Green Ratio: This metric is the inverse of the Green to Red Ratio. It calculates the relative prevalence of bearish candles compared to bullish candles within the lookback period. A higher Red to Green ratio indicates a stronger bearish sentiment.
Interpretation :
- Green Score and Red Score: These histograms display the raw counts of green and red candles within the lookback period. Traders can use these histograms to observe the recent distribution of bullish and bearish candles.
- Green to Red Ratio: This line graph represents the ratio of bullish candles to bearish candles. When this ratio is above 1, it indicates a predominantly bullish sentiment, suggesting potential upward momentum. Conversely, when it's below 1, it signifies a bearish sentiment, suggesting potential downward pressure.
- Red to Green Ratio: This line graph represents the inverse ratio, indicating the strength of bearish sentiment relative to bullish sentiment. Similar to Green to Red, values above 1 indicate a bearish bias, while values below 1 indicate a bullish bias.
- Ratio Threshold: The white horizontal line on the chart represents the user-defined threshold. Traders can set this threshold to identify extreme sentiment conditions. When either the Green to Red ratio or Red to Green ratio crosses the threshold, it may signal overbought (above threshold) or oversold (below threshold) market conditions.
Potential Applications:
- Trend Confirmation: Traders can use this indicator to confirm the prevailing trend. A strong GRratioScore may validate a bullish trend, while a strong RGratioScore may confirm a bearish trend.
Contrarian Signals: Extreme readings (crossing the threshold) can be interpreted as potential reversal points. For example, a very high GRratioScore followed by a crossover below the threshold might indicate an overbought market and a potential bearish reversal.
Divergence Analysis: Traders can analyze divergences between price movements and the indicator. If price makes higher highs while the indicator shows lower highs, it may signal a weakening bullish trend.
Limitations:
- Lookback Period: The indicator's effectiveness may vary depending on the selected lookback period. Longer periods smooth out fluctuations but may lag in capturing recent changes in sentiment.
- Threshold Sensitivity: The interpretation of extreme readings can be subjective. Traders should carefully select and adjust the threshold based on their trading strategy and market conditions.
- Lack of Context: This indicator solely focuses on candle color ratios and does not consider other factors like volume, market news, or fundamental analysis. It should be used in conjunction with other indicators and analysis techniques.
This indicator provides a simple yet valuable tool for assessing market sentiment and potential trend reversals based on candle color ratios. Traders can use this information to make informed trading decisions, but it's essential to consider its limitations and use it as part of a comprehensive trading strategy.
Moving Average of Volume for Up and Down ClosesThis indicator is intended to provide market bias information at a glance. Depending on the number of periods selected it can help identify changes in buying and selling sentiment or overall market bias. The two lines indicate increases and decreases in volumes for the selected number of periods. I recommend using this indicator with a minimum of clear support and resistance lines and a standard volume indicator. It does provided useful information as a stand-alone indicator. I don't use any indicators except volume, so this was meant to be my own personal volume analysis tool, however I feel that it can be very useful for other traders who may not have a deep understanding of volume analysis.
Bullish vs. Bearish Candle CounterFollowing an exhaustive analysis of the most recent 50,000 candles within a given currency pair, a notable equilibrium between bearish and bullish candles has emerged as a persistent market phenomenon. This equilibrium, indicative of the market's continuous endeavor to establish parity, has spurred the development of the following indicator.
The indicator meticulously scrutinizes the preceding 100 candles, promptly triggering an on-chart marker when either bullish or bearish candle counts surpass the threshold of 60%. This marker serves as an invaluable tool, providing traders with a potential signal for the initiation of a trend reversal.
As such, this indicator serves as a valuable asset in a trader's toolkit, offering insights into shifts in market sentiment and the prospect of emerging trends.
Key Features:
- Customizable Candle Count: Traders can set the number of candlesticks to be analyzed in the input parameters, allowing flexibility in their analysis.
- Bullish and Bearish Percentage: Users can define their desired percentage for both bullish and bearish candles in the indicator's settings. The indicator calculates the percentage of each candle type within the specified range.
- Arrow Signals: The indicator plots arrows above or below the current candle, indicating bullish or bearish conditions based on the defined percentage thresholds. A green arrow signifies bullish sentiment, while a red arrow denotes bearish sentiment.
How to Use:
- Adjust Parameters: In the indicator settings, users can customize the number of candlesticks to be analyzed, as well as set their preferred percentages for both bullish and bearish conditions.
- Interpret Arrows: The indicator generates arrows above or below the current candle, reflecting the prevailing market sentiment. A green arrow suggests a bullish bias, while a red arrow indicates a bearish bias.
- Trade with Confidence: Traders can use this indicator as a tool to gauge market sentiment and make informed trading decisions. It helps identify potential entry and exit points based on the chosen percentage thresholds.
Elliott Wave with Supertrend Exit - Strategy [presentTrading]## Introduction and How it is Different
The Elliott Wave with Supertrend Exit provides automated detection and validation of Elliott Wave patterns for algorithmic trading. It is designed to objectively identify high-probability wave formations and signal entries based on confirmed impulsive and corrective patterns.
* The Elliott part is mostly referenced from Elliott Wave by @LuxAlgo
Key advantages compared to discretionary Elliott Wave analysis:
- Wave Labeling and Counting: The strategy programmatically identifies swing pivot highs/lows with the Zigzag indicator and analyzes the waves between them. It labels the potential impulsive and corrective patterns as they form. This removes the subjectivity of manual wave counting.
- Pattern Validation: A rules-based engine confirms valid impulsive and corrective patterns by checking relative size relationships and fib ratios. Only confirmed wave counts are plotted and traded.
- Objective Entry Signals: Trades are entered systematically on the start of new impulsive waves in the direction of the trend. Pattern failures invalidate setups and stop out positions.
- Automated Trade Management: The strategy defines specific rules for profit targets at fib extensions, trailing stops at swing points, and exits on Supertrend reversals. This automates the entire trade lifecycle.
- Adaptability: The waveform recognition engine can be tuned by adjusting parameters like Zigzag depth and Supertrend settings. It adapts to evolving market conditions.
ETH 1hr chart
In summary, the strategy brings automation, objectivity and adaptability to Elliott Wave trading - removing subjective interpretation errors and emotional trading biases. It implements a rules-based, algorithmic approach for systematically trading Elliott Wave patterns across markets and timeframes.
## Trading Logic and Rules
The strategy follows specific trading rules based on the detected and validated Elliott Wave patterns.
Entry Rules
- Long entry when a new impulsive bullish (5-wave) pattern forms
- Short entry when a new impulsive bearish (5-wave) pattern forms
The key is entering on the start of a new potential trend wave rather than chasing.
Exit Rules
- Invalidation of wave pattern stops out the trade
- Close long trades on Supertrend downturn
- Close short trades on Supertrend upturn
- Use a stop loss of 10% of entry price (configurable)
Trade Management
- Scale out partial profits at Fibonacci levels
- Move stop to breakeven when price reaches 1.618 extension
- Trail stops below key swing points
- Target exits at next Fibonacci projection level
Risk Management
- Use stop losses on all trades
- Trade only highest probability setups
- Size positions according to chart timeframe
- Avoid overtrading when no clear patterns emerge
## Strategy - How it Works
The core logic follows these steps:
1. Find swing highs/lows with Zigzag indicator
2. Analyze pivot points to detect impulsive 5-wave patterns:
- Waves 1, 3, and 5 should not overlap
- Waves 3 and 5 must be longer than wave 1
- Confirm relative size relationships between waves
3. Validate corrective 3-wave patterns:
- Look for overlapping, choppy waves that retrace the prior impulsive wave
4. Plot validated waves and Fibonacci retracement levels
5. Signal entries when a new impulsive wave pattern forms
6. Manage exits based on pattern failures and Supertrend reversals
Impulsive Wave Validation
The strategy checks relative size relationships to confirm valid impulsive waves.
For uptrends, it ensures:
```
Copy code- Wave 3 is longer than wave 1
- Wave 5 is longer than wave 2
- Waves do not overlap
```
Corrective Wave Validation
The strategy identifies overlapping corrective patterns that retrace the prior impulsive wave within Fibonacci levels.
Pattern Failure Invalidation
If waves fail validation tests, the strategy invalidates the pattern and stops signaling trades.
## Trade Direction
The strategy detects impulsive and corrective patterns in both uptrends and downtrends. Entries are signaled in the direction of the validated wave pattern.
## Usage
- Use on charts showing clear Elliott Wave patterns
- Start with daily or weekly timeframes to gauge overall trend
- Optimize Zigzag and Supertrend settings as needed
- Consider combining with other indicators for confirmation
## Default Settings
- Zigzag Length: 4 bars
- Supertrend Length: 10 bars
- Supertrend Multiplier: 3
- Stop Loss: 10% of entry price
- Trading Direction: Both
SMA mechanical swing tradeIndicator that compares the closing price of an asset vs a simple moving average as a mechanical swing trading strategy. It allows the user to set any asset and timeframe for the strategy, which can be different from those the user is currently viewing. The strategy also allows the user to set an upside and downside tolerance so that retests within a few % of the SMA get some space to breathe before flipping directional bias.
If the selected asset in the strategy is different from the one currently viewed, the indicator plots the MA for the currently viewed asset but keeps applying the directional bias colors from the strategy asset.
Some examples of recommended usage of this indicator: BTCUSD 120D, BTCUSD 120D applied on ETHUSD, AAVEUSD 365D.
Ultimate Balance StrategyThe Ultimate Balance Oscillator Strategy harnesses the power of the Ultimate Balance Oscillator to deliver a comprehensive and disciplined approach to trading. By combining the insights of the Rate of Change (ROC), Relative Strength Index (RSI), Commodity Channel Index (CCI), Williams Percent Range, and Average Directional Index (ADX) from TradingView, this strategy offers traders a systematic way to navigate the markets with precision.
The core principle of this strategy lies in its ability to identify optimal entry and exit points based on the movement of the Ultimate Balance Oscillator. When the oscillator line crosses below the 0.75 level, a buy signal is generated, indicating a potential opportunity for a bullish trend reversal. Conversely, when the oscillator line crosses above the 0.25 level, it triggers an exit signal, suggesting a possible end to a bullish trend.
Key Features:
1. Objective Market Analysis: The Ultimate Balance Oscillator Strategy provides a disciplined and objective approach to market analysis. By relying on the quantified insights of multiple indicators, it helps traders cut through market noise and focus on key signals, improving decision-making and reducing emotional biases.
2. Enhanced Timing and Precision: This strategy's entry and exit signals are based on the specific thresholds of the Ultimate Balance Oscillator. By waiting for confirmation through the crossing of these levels, traders can potentially enter trades at opportune moments and exit with greater precision, maximizing profit potential and minimizing risk exposure.
3. Customizability and Adaptability: The strategy offers flexibility, allowing traders to customize the parameters to fit their preferred trading style and timeframes. Whether you're a short-term trader or a long-term investor, the Ultimate Balance Oscillator Strategy can be adjusted to suit your specific needs, making it adaptable to various market conditions.
4. Real-time Alerts: Stay informed and never miss a potential trade opportunity with the strategy's built-in alert system. Set personalized alerts for buy and exit signals to receive timely notifications, ensuring you're always aware of the latest developments in the market.
5. Backtesting and Optimization: Before applying the strategy to live trading, it's recommended to conduct thorough backtesting and optimization. By testing the strategy's performance over historical data and fine-tuning the parameters, you can gain insights into its strengths and weaknesses, enabling you to make informed adjustments and increase its effectiveness.
Trading involves risk. Use the Ultimate Balance Oscillator Strategy at your own discretion. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Moving Average Contrarian IndicatorThis indicator is designed to identify potential turning points in the market. By measuring the distance between the price and a moving average, and normalizing it, the MACI provides valuable insights into market sentiment and potential reversals. In this article, we will explore the calculation, interpretation, and practical applications of the MACI, along with its potential limitations.
The MACI is calculated in several steps. First, a moving average is computed using a user-defined length, representing the average price over the specified period. The distance between the current price and the moving average is then determined. This distance is normalized using the highest and lowest distances observed within the chosen length, resulting in a value between 0 and 100. Higher MACI values indicate that the price is relatively far from the moving average, potentially signaling an overextension, while lower values suggest price consolidation or convergence with the moving average.
Altering the parameters of the Moving Average Contrarian Indicator can provide traders with additional flexibility and adaptability to suit different market conditions and trading styles. By adjusting the length parameter, traders can customize the sensitivity of the indicator to price movements. A shorter length may result in more frequent and responsive signals, which can be useful for short-term traders aiming to capture quick price reversals. On the other hand, a longer length may provide smoother signals, suited for traders who prefer to focus on longer-term trends and are less concerned with minor fluctuations. Experimenting with different parameter values allows traders to fine-tune the indicator to align with their preferred trading timeframes and risk tolerance. However, it is essential to strike a balance and avoid excessive parameter adjustments that may lead to over-optimization or curve fitting. Regular evaluation and optimization based on historical data and real-time market observations can help identify the most suitable parameter values for optimal performance.
The coloration of the Moving Average Contrarian Indicator provides visual cues that assist traders in interpreting its signals. The background color, set based on the indicator's values, adds an additional layer of context to the chart. When the indicator is indicating bullish conditions, the background color is set to lime, suggesting a favorable environment for long positions. Conversely, when the indicator signals bearish conditions, the background color is set to fuchsia, indicating a potential advantage for short positions. In neutral or transitional periods, the background color is set to yellow, indicating caution and the absence of a clear bias.
The bar color complements the histogram and provides additional visual clarity. When the MACI value is greater than the MACI SMA value and exceeds the threshold of 30, the bars are colored lime, signaling potential bullish conditions. Conversely, when the MACI value is below the MACI SMA value and falls below the threshold of 70, the bars are colored fuchsia, indicating potential bearish conditions. For values that fall between these thresholds, the bars are colored yellow, highlighting a neutral or transitional state.
Practical Uses and Strategies:
The MACI offers traders and analysts valuable insights into market dynamics and potential reversal points. When the MACI is above its moving average and above a predefined threshold (e.g., 30), it suggests that prices have deviated significantly from the average and may be overbought. This could serve as an early indication for potential short-selling opportunities or taking profits on existing long positions. Conversely, when the MACI is below its moving average and below a predefined threshold (e.g., 70), it suggests oversold conditions, potentially signaling a buying opportunity. Traders can combine MACI with other technical indicators or price patterns to further refine their trading strategies.
The MACI can be a powerful tool for identifying potential market reversals. When the MACI reaches extreme levels, such as above 70 or below 30, it indicates overbought or oversold conditions, respectively. Traders can use these signals to anticipate price reversals and adjust their trading strategies accordingly. For example, when the MACI enters the overbought zone, traders may consider initiating short positions or tightening stop-loss levels on existing long positions. Conversely, when the MACI enters the oversold zone, it may indicate a buying opportunity, prompting traders to consider initiating long positions or loosening stop-loss levels.
The MACI can also be used in conjunction with price action to identify potential divergence patterns. Divergence occurs when the MACI and price move in opposite directions. For instance, if the price is making higher highs while the MACI is making lower highs, it suggests a bearish divergence, indicating a potential trend reversal. Conversely, if the price is making lower lows while the MACI is making higher lows, it suggests a bullish divergence, signaling a potential trend reversal to the upside. Traders can use these divergence patterns as additional confirmation signals when making trading decisions.
Limitations:
-- Sideways and Choppy Markets : The MACI performs best in trending markets where price movements are more pronounced. In sideways or choppy markets with limited directional bias, the MACI may generate false signals or provide less reliable indications. Traders should exercise caution when relying solely on the MACI in such market conditions and consider incorporating additional analysis techniques or filters to confirm potential signals.
-- Lagging Indicator : The MACI is a lagging indicator, as it relies on moving averages and historical price data. It may not provide timely signals for very short-term trading or capturing rapid price movements. Traders should be aware that there may be a delay between the occurrence of a signal and its confirmation by the MACI.
-- False Signals : Like any technical indicator, the MACI is not immune to false signals. It is essential to use the MACI in conjunction with other technical indicators, chart patterns, or fundamental analysis to increase the probability of accurate predictions. Combining multiple confirmation signals can help filter out false signals and enhance the overall reliability of trading decisions.
-- Market Conditions : It's important to consider that the effectiveness of the MACI may vary across different markets and asset classes. Each market has its own characteristics, and what works well in one market may not work as effectively in another. Traders should evaluate the performance of the MACI within their specific trading environment and adapt their strategies accordingly.
This indicator can be a valuable addition to a trader's toolkit, offering insights into potential entry and exit points. However, it should be used in conjunction with other analysis techniques and should not be relied upon as a standalone trading signal. Understanding its calculation, interpreting its values, and considering its limitations will empower traders to make more informed decisions in their pursuit of trading success.
Normalized Elastic Volume Oscillator (MTF)The Multi-Timeframe Normalized Elastic Volume Oscillator combines volume analysis with multiple timeframe analysis. It provides traders with valuable insights into volume dynamics across different timeframes, helping to identify trends, potential reversals, and overbought/oversold conditions.
When using the Multi-Timeframe Normalized Elastic Volume Oscillator, consider the following guidelines:
Understanding Input Parameters : The indicator offers customizable input parameters to suit your trading preferences. You can adjust the EMA length (emaLength), scaling factor (scalingFactor), volume weighting option (volumeWeighting), and select a higher timeframe for analysis (higherTF). Experiment with these parameters to optimize the indicator for your trading strategy.
Multiple Timeframe Analysis : The Multi-Timeframe Normalized Elastic Volume Oscillator allows you to analyze volume dynamics on both the current timeframe and a higher timeframe. By comparing volume behavior across different timeframes, you gain a broader perspective on market trends and the strength of volume deviations. The higher timeframe analysis provides additional confirmation and helps identify more significant market shifts.
Normalized Values : The indicator normalizes the volume deviations on both timeframes to a consistent scale between -0.25 and 0.75. This normalization makes it easier to compare and interpret the oscillator's readings across different assets and timeframes. Positive values indicate bullish volume behavior, while negative values suggest bearish volume behavior.
Interpreting the Indicator : Pay attention to the position of the Multi-Timeframe Normalized Elastic Volume Oscillator lines relative to the zero line on both timeframes. Positive values on either timeframe indicate a bullish bias, while negative values suggest a bearish bias. The distance of the oscillator from the zero line reflects the strength of the volume deviation. Extreme readings, both positive and negative, may indicate overbought or oversold conditions, potentially signaling a trend reversal or exhaustion.
Combining with Other Indicators : For more robust trading decisions, consider combining the Multi-Timeframe Normalized Elastic Volume Oscillator with other technical analysis tools. This could include trend indicators, support/resistance levels, or candlestick patterns. By incorporating multiple indicators, you gain additional confirmation and increase the reliability of your trading signals.
Remember that the Multi-Timeframe Normalized Elastic Volume Oscillator is a valuable tool, but it should not be used in isolation. Consider other factors such as price action, market context, and fundamental analysis to make well-informed trading decisions. Additionally, practice proper risk management and exercise caution when executing trades.
By utilizing the Multi-Timeframe Normalized Elastic Volume Oscillator, you gain a comprehensive view of volume dynamics across different timeframes. This knowledge can help you identify potential market trends, confirm trading signals, and improve the timing of your trades.
Take time to familiarize yourself with the indicator and conduct thorough testing on historical data. This will help you gain confidence in its effectiveness and align it with your trading strategy. With experience and continuous evaluation, you can harness the power of the Multi-Timeframe Normalized Elastic Volume Oscillator to make informed trading decisions.
Manual Backtest - Flat the ChartThis script is an utility tool for manual backtesting.
The main problem in backtesting a discretionary strategy is the bias of knowing the future result of the market, in this way all the market will be crushed into a flat line, this way you can avoid bias.
The way to use this indicator is easy and made by 4 step:
Step 1 : add to an asset you won't backtest and put the auto scale on
Step 2 : go to the asset you will backtest and scroll left until the date you want to start
Step 3 : use the replay function of tradingview (15 min chart won't go back more than 18 month)
Step 4: toggle off the indicator or remove from the chart (untill next asset to backtest)
That's not a complex indicator but is what you need to do a fair backtesting
Reverse Stochastic Momentum Index On ChartIntroducing the Reverse Stochastic Momentum Index "On Chart" version
According to Investopedia :
“The Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) is a more refined version of the stochastic oscillator, employing a wider range of values and having a higher sensitivity to closing prices.”
The SMI is considered a refinement of the stochastic oscillator developed by William Blau and introduced in 1993 in an attempt to provide a more reliable indicator, less subject to false swings.
It calculates the distance of the current closing price as it relates to the median of the high/low range of price.
The SMI has a normal range of values between +100 and -100.
When the present closing price is higher than the median, or midpoint value of the high/low range, the resulting value is positive.
When the current closing price is lower than that of the midpoint of the high/low range, the SMI has a negative value.
Here I have reverse engineered the SMI formula to derive 2 functions.
One function calculates the chart price at which the SMI will reach a particular SMI scale value.
The second function calculates the chart price at which the SMI will crossover its signal line.
I have employed those functions here to give the "crossover" price levels for :
Upper alert level ( default 40, color : aqua blue )
Mid-Line ( default value 0, color : white )
Lower alert level ( default -40, color : purple )
Signal line ( default 13, colors : bright red & lime green )
And also to give the SMI eq price ( colors : red & green )
The midline, upper and lower alert levels return the closing price which would make SMI equal to their respective values
The user can infer from this that.....
Closing above these prices will cause the Stochastic Momentum Index to cross above the associated levels
Closing below these prices will cause the Stochastic Momentum Index to cross below the associated levels
Signal line returns the closing price where Stochastic Momentum Index is equal to its signal line
The user can infer from this that.....
Closing above this price will cause the Stochastic Momentum Index to cross above the signal line
Closing below this price will cause the Stochastic Momentum Index to cross below the signal line
SMI eq price returns the closing price which would make the SMI equal to its previous value
The user can infer from this that.....
Closing above this price will cause the Stochastic Momentum Index to increase
Closing below this price will cause the Stochastic Momentum Index to decrease
Note : all returned prices have a returned value filter to replace any values below zero with zero to help prevent auto focus issues.
These levels are displayed as plotted lines on the chart and also as an optional infobox with choice of displayed info.
This allows the user to see directly on the chart the interplay between the various crossover levels and price action and to precisely plan entries, exits and stops for their SMI based trades.
Traditionally traders and analysts will consider:
Positives values above 40 indicate a bullish trend
Negative values below -40 indicate a bearish trend .
Common traditional ways to derive signals from the SMI :
When the SMI crosses below -40 and then moves back above it, a buy signal is generated.
When the SMI crosses above +40 and then moves back below it, a sell signal is generated.
When the SMI line crosses above the signal line. A signal to buy is generated
When the SMI line crosses below the signal line signal to sell is generated.
When the SMI crosses above the zeroline, signal line and the SMI eq level many interpret that as a full bullish bias signal and take trades only in that direction, vice versa for bearish bias.
Traders also look for divergences between the SMI and price action.
The SMI is often used in conjunction with the Chande Momentum Oscillator or R squared indicator to determine overall market trendiness where the SMI is used to determine the direction of the trend, and also with volume indicators to show if the momentum carries significant selling or buying pressure.
Relative Volume at Time█ OVERVIEW
This indicator calculates relative volume, which is the ratio of present volume over an average of past volume.
It offers two calculation modes, both using a time reference as an anchor.
█ CONCEPTS
Calculation modes
The simplest way to calculate relative volume is by using the ratio of a bar's volume over a simple moving average of the last n volume values.
This indicator uses one of two, more subtle ways to calculate both values of the relative volume ratio: current volume:past volume .
The two calculations modes are:
1 — Cumulate from Beginning of TF to Current Bar where:
current volume = the cumulative volume since the beginning of the timeframe unit, and
past volume = the mean of volume during that same relative period of time in the past n timeframe units.
2 — Point-to-Point Bars at Same Offset from Beginning of TF where:
current volume = the volume on a single chart bar, and
past volume = the mean of volume values from that same relative bar in time from the past n timeframe units.
Timeframe units
Timeframe units can be defined in three different ways:
1 — Using Auto-steps, where the timeframe unit automatically adjusts to the timeframe used on the chart:
— A 1 min timeframe unit will be used on 1sec charts,
— 1H will be used for charts at 1min and less,
— 1D will be used for other intraday chart timeframes,
— 1W will be used for 1D charts,
— 1M will be used for charts at less than 1M,
— 1Y will be used for charts at greater or equal than 1M.
2 — As a fixed timeframe that you define.
3 — By time of day (for intraday chart timeframes only), which you also define. If you use non-intraday chart timeframes in this mode, the indicator will switch to Auto-steps.
Relative Relativity
A relative volume value of 1.0 indicates that current volume is equal to the mean of past volume , but how can we determine what constitutes a high relative volume value?
The traditional way is to settle for an arbitrary threshold, with 2.0 often used to indicate that relative volume is worthy of attention.
We wanted to provide traders with a contextual method of calculating threshold values, so in addition to the conventional fixed threshold value,
this indicator includes two methods of calculating a threshold channel on past relative volume values:
1 — Using the standard deviation of relative volume over a fixed lookback.
2 — Using the highs/lows of relative volume over a variable lookback.
Channels calculated on relative volume provide meta-relativity, if you will, as they are relative values of relative volume.
█ FEATURES
Controls in the "Display" section of inputs determine what is visible in the indicator's pane. The next "Settings" section is where you configure the parameters used in the calculations. The "Column Coloring Conditions" section controls the color of the columns, which you will see in three of the five display modes available. Whether columns are plotted or not, the coloring conditions also determine when markers appear, if you have chosen to show the markers in the "Display" section. The presence of markers is what triggers the alerts configured on this indicator. Finally, the "Colors" section of inputs allows you to control the color of the indicator's visual components.
Display
Five display modes are available:
• Current Volume Columns : shows columns of current volume , with past volume displayed as an outlined column.
• Relative Volume Columns : shows relative volume as a column.
• Relative Volume Columns With Average : shows relative volume as a column, with the average of relative volume.
• Directional Relative Volume Average : shows a line calculated using the average of +/- values of relative volume.
The positive value of relative volume is used on up bars; its negative value on down bars.
• Relative Volume Average : shows the average of relative volume.
A Hull moving average is used to calculate the average used in the three last display modes.
You can also control the display of:
• The value or relative volume, when in the first three display modes. Only the last 500 values will be shown.
• Timeframe transitions, shown in the background.
• A reminder of the active timeframe unit, which appears to the right of the indicator's last bar.
• The threshold used, which can be a fixed value or a channel, as determined in the next "Settings" section of inputs.
• Up/Down markers, which appear on transitions of the color of the volume columns (determined by coloring conditions), which in turn control when alerts are triggered.
• Conditions of high volatility.
Settings
Use this section of inputs to change:
• Calculation mode : this is where you select one of this indicator's two calculation modes for current volume and past volume , as explained in the "Concepts" section.
• Past Volume Lookback in TF units : the quantity of timeframe units used in the calculation of past volume .
• Define Timeframes Units Using : the mode used to determine what one timeframe unit is. Note that when using a fixed timeframe, it must be higher than the chart's timeframe.
Also, note that time of day timeframe units only work on intraday chart timeframes.
• Threshold Mode : Five different modes can be selected:
— Fixed Value : You can define the value using the "Fixed Threshold" field below. The default value is 2.0.
— Standard Deviation Channel From Fixed Lookback : This is a channel calculated using the simple moving average of relative volume
(so not the Hull moving average used elsewhere in the indicator), plus/minus the standard deviation multiplied by a user-defined factor.
The lookback used is the value of the "Channel Lookback" field. Its default is 100.
— High/Low Channel From Beginning of TF : in this mode, the High/Low values reset at the beginning of each timeframe unit.
— High/Low Channel From Beginning of Past Volume Lookback : in this mode, the High/Low values start from the farthest point back where we are calculating past volume ,
which is determined by the combination of timeframe units and the "Past Volume Lookback in TF units" value.
— High/Low Channel From Fixed Lookback : In this mode the lookback is fixed. You can define the value using the "Channel Lookback" field. The default value is 100.
• Period of RelVol Moving Average : the period of the Hull moving average used in the "Directional Relative Volume Average" and the "Relative Volume Average".
• High Volatility is defined using fast and slow ATR periods, so this represents the volatility of price.
Volatility is considered to be high when the fast ATR value is greater than its slow value. Volatility can be used as a filter in the column coloring conditions.
Column Coloring Conditions
• Eight different conditions can be turned on or off to determine the color of the volume columns. All "ON" conditions must be met to determine a high/low state of relative volume,
or, in the case of directional relative volume, a bull/bear state.
• A volatility state can also be used to filter the conditions.
• When the coloring conditions and the filter do not allow for a high/low state to be determined, the neutral color is used.
• Transitions of the color of the volume columns determined by coloring conditions are used to plot the up/down markers, which in turn control when alerts are triggered.
Colors
• You can define your own colors for all of the oscillator's plots.
• The default colors will perform well on light or dark chart backgrounds.
Alerts
• An alert can be defined for the script. The alert will trigger whenever an up/down marker appears in the indicator's display.
The particular combination of coloring conditions and the display settings for up/down markers when you create the alert will determine which conditions trigger the alert.
After alerts are created, subsequent changes to the conditions controlling the display of markers will not affect existing alerts.
• By configuring the script's inputs in different ways before you create your alerts, you can create multiple, functionally distinct alerts from this script.
When creating multiple alerts, it is useful to include in the alert's message a reminder of the particular conditions you used for each alert.
• As is usually the case, alerts triggering "Once Per Bar Close" will prevent repainting.
Error messages
Error messages will appear at the end of the chart upon the following conditions:
• When the combination of the timeframe units used and the "Past Volume Lookback in TF units" value create a lookback that is greater than 5000 bars.
The lookback will then be recalculated to a value such that a runtime error does not occur.
• If the chart's timeframe is higher than the timeframe units. This error cannot occur when using Auto-steps to calculate timeframe units.
• If relative volume cannot be calculated, for example, when no volume data is available for the chart's symbol.
• When the threshold of relative volume is configured to be visible but the indicator's scale does not allow it to be visible (in "Current Volume Columns" display mode).
█ NOTES
For traders
The chart shown here uses the following display modes: "Current Volume Columns", "Relative Volume Columns With Average", "Directional Relative Volume Average" and "Relative Volume Average". The last one also shows the threshold channel in standard deviation mode, and the TF Unit reminder to the right, in red.
Volume, like price, is a value with a market-dependent scale. The only valid reference for volume being its past values, any improvement in the way past volume is calculated thus represents a potential opportunity to traders. Relative volume calculated as it is here can help traders extract useful information from markets in many circumstances, markets with cyclical volume such as Forex being one, obvious case. The relative nature of the values calculated by this indicator also make it a natural fit for cross-market and cross-sector analysis, or to identify behavioral changes in the different futures contracts of the same market. Relative volume can also be put to more exotic uses, such as in evaluating changes in the popularity of exchanges.
Relative volume alone has no directional bias. While higher relative volume values always indicate higher trading activity, that activity does not necessarily translate into significant price movement. In a tightly fought battle between buyers and sellers, you could theoretically have very large volume for many bars, with no change whatsoever in bid/ask prices. This of course, is unlikely to happen in reality, and so traders are justified in considering high relative volume values as indicating periods where more attention is required, because imbalances in the strength of buying/selling power during high-volume trading periods can amplify price variations, providing traders with the generally useful gift of volatility.
Be sure to give the "Directional Relative Volume Average" a try. Contrary to the always-positive ratio widely used in this indicator, the "Directional Relative Volume Average" produces a value able to determine a bullish/bearish bias for relative volume.
Note that realtime bars must be complete for the relative volume value to be confirmed. Values calculated on historical or elapsed realtime bars will not recalculate unless historical volume data changes.
Finally, as with all indicators using volume information, keep in mind that some exchanges/brokers supply different feeds for intraday and daily data, and the volume data on both feeds can sometimes vary quite a bit.
For coders
Our script was written using the PineCoders Coding Conventions for Pine .
The description was formatted using the techniques explained in the How We Write and Format Script Descriptions PineCoders publication.
Bits and pieces of code were lifted from the MTF Selection Framework and the MTF Oscillator Framework , also by PineCoders.
█ THANKS
Thanks to dgtrd for suggesting to add the channel using standard deviation.
Thanks to adolgov for helpful suggestions on calculations and visuals.
Look first. Then leap.
