On-Chain Signals [LuxAlgo]The On-Chain Signals indicator uses fundamental blockchain metrics to provide traders with an objective technical view of their favorite cryptocurrencies.
It uses IntoTheBlock datasets integrated within TradingView to generate four key signals: Net Network Growth, In the Money, Concentration, and Large Transactions.
Together, these four signals provide traders with an overall directional bias of the market. All of the data can be visualized as a gauge, table, historical plot, or average.
🔶 USAGE
The main goal of this tool is to provide an overall directional bias based on four blockchain signals, each with three possible biases: bearish, neutral, or bullish. The thresholds for each signal bias can be adjusted on the settings panel.
These signals are based on IntoTheBlock's On-Chain Signals.
Net network growth: Change in the total number of addresses over the last seven periods; i.e., how many new addresses are being created.
In the Money: Change in the seven-period moving average of the total supply in the money. This shows how many addresses are profitable.
Concentration: Change in the aggregate addresses of whales and investors from the previous period. These are addresses holding at least 0.1% of the supply. This shows how many addresses are in the hands of a few.
Large Transactions: Changes in the number of transactions over $100,000. This metric tracks convergence or divergence from the 21- and 30-day EMAs and indicates the momentum of large transactions.
All of these signals together form the blockchain's overall directional bias.
Bearish: The number of bearish individual signals is greater than the number of bullish individual signals.
Neutral: The number of bearish individual signals is equal to the number of bullish individual signals.
Bullish: The number of bullish individual signals is greater than the number of bearish individual signals.
If the overall directional bias is bullish, we can expect the price of the observed cryptocurrency to increase. If the bias is bearish, we can expect the price to decrease. If the signal is neutral, the price may be more likely to stay the same.
Traders should be aware of two things. First, the signals provide optimal results when the chart is set to the daily timeframe. Second, the tool uses IntoTheBlock data, which is available on TradingView. Therefore, some cryptocurrencies may not be available.
🔹 Display Mode
Traders have three different display modes at their disposal. These modes can be easily selected from the settings panel. The gauge is set by default.
🔹 Gauge
The gauge will appear in the center of the visible space. Traders can adjust its size using the Scale parameter in the Settings panel. They can also give it a curved effect.
The number of bars displayed directly affects the gauge's resolution: More bars result in better resolution.
The chart above shows the effect that different scale configurations have on the gauge.
🔹 Historical Data
The chart above shows the historical data for each of the four signals.
Traders can use this mode to adjust the thresholds for each signal on the settings panel to fit the behavior of each cryptocurrency. They can also analyze how each metric impacts price behavior over time.
🔹 Average
This display mode provides an easy way to see the overall bias of past prices in order to analyze price behavior in relation to the underlying blockchain's directional bias.
The average is calculated by taking the values of the overall bias as -1 for bearish, 0 for neutral, and +1 for bullish, and then applying a triangular moving average over 20 periods by default. Simple and exponential moving averages are available, and traders can select the period length from the settings panel.
🔶 DETAILS
The four signals are based on IntoTheBlock's On-Chain Signals. We gather the data, manipulate it, and build the signals depending on each threshold.
Net network growth
float netNetworkGrowthData = customData('_TOTALADDRESSES')
float netNetworkGrowth = 100*(netNetworkGrowthData /netNetworkGrowthData - 1)
In the Money
float inTheMoneyData = customData('_INOUTMONEYIN')
float averageBalance = customData('_AVGBALANCE')
float inTheMoneyBalance = inTheMoneyData*averageBalance
float sma = ta.sma(inTheMoneyBalance,7)
float inTheMoney = ta.roc(sma,1)
Concentration
float whalesData = customData('_WHALESPERCENTAGE')
float inverstorsData = customData('_INVESTORSPERCENTAGE')
float bigHands = whalesData+inverstorsData
float concentration = ta.change(bigHands )*100
Large Transactions
float largeTransacionsData = customData('_LARGETXCOUNT')
float largeTX21 = ta.ema(largeTransacionsData,21)
float largeTX30 = ta.ema(largeTransacionsData,30)
float largeTransacions = ((largeTX21 - largeTX30)/largeTX30)*100
🔶 SETTINGS
Display mode: Select between gauge, historical data and average.
Average: Select a smoothing method and length period.
🔹 Thresholds
Net Network Growth : Bullish and bearish thresholds for this signal.
In The Money : Bullish and bearish thresholds for this signal.
Concentration : Bullish and bearish thresholds for this signal.
Transactions : Bullish and bearish thresholds for this signal.
🔹 Dashboard
Dashboard : Enable/disable dashboard display
Position : Select dashboard location
Size : Select dashboard size
🔹 Gauge
Scale : Select the size of the gauge
Curved : Enable/disable curved mode
Select Gauge colors for bearish, neutral and bullish bias
🔹 Style
Net Network Growth : Enable/disable historical plot and choose color
In The Money : Enable/disable historical plot and choose color
Concentration : Enable/disable historical plot and choose color
Large Transacions : Enable/disable historical plot and choose color
Search in scripts for "bias"
Bar Balance [LucF]Bar Balance extracts the number of up, down and neutral intrabars contained in each chart bar, revealing information on the strength of price movement. It can display stacked columns representing raw up/down/neutral intrabar counts, or an up/down balance line which can be calculated and visualized in many different ways.
WARNING: This is an analysis tool that works on historical bars only. It does not show any realtime information, and thus cannot be used to issue alerts or for automated trading. When realtime bars elapse, the indicator will require a browser refresh, a change to its Inputs or to the chart's timeframe/symbol to recalculate and display information on those elapsed bars. Once a trader understands this, the indicator can be used advantageously to make discretionary trading decisions.
Traders used to work with my Delta Volume Columns Pro will feel right at home in this indicator's Inputs . It has lots of options, allowing it to be used in many different ways. If you value the bar balance information this indicator mines, I hope you will find the time required to master the use of Bar Balance well worth the investment.
█ OVERVIEW
The indicator has two modes: Columns and Line .
Columns
• In Columns mode you can display stacked Up/Down/Neutral columns.
• The "Up" section represents the count of intrabars where `close > open`, "Down" where `close < open` and "Neutral" where `close = open`.
• The Up section always appears above the centerline, the Down section below. The Neutral section overlaps the centerline, split halfway above and below it.
The Up and Down sections start where the Neutral section ends, when there is one.
• The Up and Down sections can be colored independently using 7 different methods.
• The signal line plotted in Line mode can also be displayed in Columns mode.
Line
• Displays a single balance line using a zero centerline.
• A variable number of independent methods can be used to calculate the line (6), determine its color (5), and color the fill (5).
You can thus evaluate the state of 3 different components with this single line.
• A "Divergence Levels" feature will use the line to automatically draw expanding levels on divergence events.
Features available in both modes
• The color of all components can be selected from 15 base colors, with 16 gradient levels used for each base color in the indicator's gradients.
• A zero line can show a 6-state aggregate value of the three main volume balance modes.
• The background can be colored using any of 5 different methods.
• Chart bars can be colored using 5 different methods.
• Divergence and large neutral count ratio events can be shown in either Columns or Line mode, calculated in one of 4 different methods.
• Markers on 6 different conditions can be displayed.
█ CONCEPTS
Intrabar inspection
Intrabar inspection means the indicator looks at lower timeframe bars ( intrabars ) making up a given chart bar to gather its information. If your chart is on a 1-hour timeframe and the intrabar resolution determined by the indicator is 5 minutes, then 12 intrabars will be analyzed for each chart bar and the count of up/down/neutral intrabars among those will be tallied.
Bar Balances and calculation methods
The indicator uses a variety of methods to evaluate bar balance and to derive other calculations from them:
1. Balance on Bar : Uses the relative importance of instant Up and Down counts on the bar.
2. Balance Averages : Uses the difference between the EMAs of Up and Down counts.
3. Balance Momentum : Starts by calculating, separately for both Up and Down counts, the difference between the same EMAs used in Balance Averages and an SMA of double the period used for the EMAs. These differences are then aggregated and finally, a bounded momentum of that aggregate is calculated using RSI.
4. Markers Bias : It sums the bull/bear occurrences of the four previous markers over a user-defined period (the default is 14).
5. Combined Balances : This is the aggregate of the instant bull/bear bias of the three main bar balances.
6. Dual Up/Down Averages : This is a display mode showing the EMA calculated for each of the Up and Down counts.
Interpretation of neutral intrabars
What do neutral intrabars mean? When price does not change during a bar, it can be because there is simply no interest in the market, or because of a perfect balance between buyers and sellers. The latter being more improbable, Bar Balance assumes that neutral bars reveal a lack of interest, which entails uncertainty. That is the reason why the option is provided to interpret ratios of neutral intrabars greater than 50% as divergences. It is also the rationale behind the option to dampen signal lines on the inverse ratio of neutral intrabars, so that zero intrabars do not affect the signal, and progressively larger proportions of neutral intrabars will reduce the signal's amplitude, as the balance calcs using the up/down counts lose significance. The impact of the dampening will vary with markets. Weaker markets such as cryptos will often contain greater numbers of neutral intrabars, so dampening the Line in that sector will have a greater impact than in more liquid markets.
█ FEATURES
1 — Columns
• While the size of the Up/Down columns always represents their respective importance on the bar, their coloring mode is independent. The default setup uses a standard coloring mode where the Up/Down columns over/under the zero line are always in the bull/bear color with a higher intensity for the winning side. Six other coloring modes allow you to pack more information in the columns. When choosing to color the top columns using a bull/bear gradient on Balance Averages, for example, you will end up with bull/bear colored tops. In order for the color of the bottom columns to continue to show the instant bar balance, you can then choose the "Up/Down Ratio on Bar — Dual Solid Colors" coloring mode to make those bars the color of the winning side for that bar.
• Line mode shows only the line, but Columns mode allows displaying the line along with it. If the scale of the line is different than that of the scale of the columns, the line will often appear flat. Traders may find even a flat line useful as its bull/bear colors will be easily distinguishable.
2 — Line
• The default setup for Line mode uses a calculation on "Balance Momentum", with a fill on the longer-term "Balance Averages" and a line color based on the "Markers Bias". With the background set on "Line vs Divergence Levels" and the zero line on the hard-coded "Combined Bar Balances", you have access to five distinct sources of information at a glance, to which you can add divergences, divergences levels and chart bar coloring. This provides powerful potential in displaying bar balance information.
• When no columns are displayed, Line mode can show the full scale of whichever line you choose to calculate because the columns' scale no longer interferes with the line's scale.
• Note that when "Balance on Bar" is selected, the Neutral count is also displayed as a ratio of the balance line. This is the only instance where the Neutral count is displayed in Line mode.
• The "Dual Up/Down Averages" is an exception as it displays two lines: one average for the Up counts and another for the Down counts. This mode will be most useful when Columns are also displayed, as it provides a reference for the top and bottom columns.
3 — Zero Line
The zero line can be colored using two methods, both based on the Combined Balances, i.e., the aggregate of the instant bull/bear bias of the three main bar balances.
• In "Six-state Dual Color Gradient" mode, a dot appears on every bar. Its color reflects the bull/bear state of the Combined Balances, and the dot's brightness reflects the tally of balance biases.
• In "Dual Solid Colors (All Bull/All Bear Only)" a dot only appears when all three balances are either bullish or bearish. The resulting pattern is identical to that of Marker 1.
4 — Divergences
• Divergences are displayed as a small circle at the top of the scale. Four different types of divergence events can be detected. Divergences occur whenever the bull/bear bias of the method used diverges with the bar's price direction.
• An option allows you to include in divergence events instances where the count of neutral intrabars exceeds 50% of the total intrabar count.
• The divergence levels are dynamic levels that automatically build from the line's values on divergence events. On consecutive divergences, the levels will expand, creating a channel. This implementation of the divergence levels corresponds to my view that divergences indicate anomalies, hesitations, points of uncertainty if you will. It excludes any association of a pre-determined bullish/bearish bias to divergences. Accordingly, the levels merely take note of divergence events and mark those points in time with levels. Traders then have a reference point from which they can evaluate further movement. The bull/bear/neutral colors used to plot the levels are also congruent with this view in that they are determined by price's position relative to the levels, which is how I think divergences can be put to the most effective use.
5 — Background
• The background can show a bull/bear gradient on four different calculations. You can adjust its brightness to make its visual importance proportional to how you use it in your analysis.
6 — Chart bars
• Chart bars can be colored using five different methods.
• You have the option of emptying the body of bars where volume does not increase, as does my TLD indicator, the idea behind this being that movement on bars where volume does not increase is less relevant.
7 — Intrabar Resolution
You can choose between three modes. Two of them are automatic and one is manual:
a) Fast, Longer history, Auto-Steps (~12 intrabars) : Optimized for speed and deeper history. Uses an average minimum of 12 intrabars.
b) More Precise, Shorter History Auto-Steps (~24 intrabars) : Uses finer intrabar resolution. It is slower and provides less history. Uses an average minimum of 24 intrabars.
c) Fixed : Uses the fixed resolution of your choice.
Auto-Steps calculations vary for 24/7 and conventional markets in order to achieve the proper target of minimum intrabars.
You can choose to view the intrabar resolution currently used to calculate delta volume. It is the default.
The proper selection of the intrabar resolution is important. It must achieve maximal granularity to produce precise results while not unduly slowing down calculations, or worse, causing runtime errors.
8 — Markers
Six markers are available:
1. Combined Balances Agreement : All three Bar Balances are either bullish or bearish.
2. Up or Down % Agrees With Bar : An up marker will appear when the percentage of up intrabars in an up chart bar is greater than the specified percentage. Conditions mirror to down bars.
3. Divergence confirmations By Price : One of the four types of balance calculations can be used to detect divergences with price. Confirmations occur when the bar following the divergence confirms the balance bias. Note that the divergence events used here do not include neutral intrabar events.
4. Balance Transitions : Bull/bear transitions of the selected balance.
5. Markers Bias Transitions : Bull/bear transitions of the Markers Bias.
6. Divergence Confirmations By Line : Marks points where the line first breaches a divergence level.
Markers appear when the condition is detected, without delay. Since nothing is plotted in realtime, markers do not appear on the realtime bar.
9 — Settings
• Two modes can be selected to dampen the line on the ratio of neutral intrabars.
• A distinct weight can be attributed to the count of the latter half of intrabars, on the assumption that later intrabars may be more important in determining the outcome of chart bars.
• Allows control over the periods of the different moving averages used in calculations.
• The default periods used for the various calculations define the following hierarchy from slow to fast:
Balance Averages: 50,
Balance Momentum: 20,
Dual Up/Down Averages: 20,
Marker Bias: 10.
█ LIMITATIONS
• This script uses a special characteristic of the `security()` function allowing the inspection of intrabars—which is not officially supported by TradingView.
• The method used does not work on the realtime bar—only on historical bars.
• The indicator only works on some chart resolutions: 3, 5, 10, 15 and 30 minutes, 1, 2, 4, 6, and 12 hours, 1 day, 1 week and 1 month. The script’s code can be modified to run on other resolutions, but chart resolutions must be divisible by the lower resolution used for intrabars and the stepping mechanism could require adaptation.
• When using the "Line vs Divergence Levels — Dual Color Gradient" color mode to fill the line, background or chart bars, keep in mind that a line calculation mode must be defined for it to work, as it determines gradients on the movement of the line relative to divergence levels. If the line is hidden, it will not work.
• When the difference between the chart’s resolution and the intrabar resolution is too great, runtime errors will occur. The Auto-Steps selection mechanisms should avoid this.
• Alerts do not work reliably when `security()` is used at intrabar resolutions. Accordingly, no alerts are configured in the indicator.
• The color model used in the indicator provides for fancy visuals that come at a price; when you change values in Inputs , it can take 20 seconds for the changes to materialize. Luckily, once your color setup is complete, the color model does not have a large performance impact, as in normal operation the `security()` calls will become the most important factor in determining response time. Also, once in a while a runtime error will occur when you change inputs. Just making another change will usually bring the indicator back up.
█ RAMBLINGS
Is this thing useful?
I'll let you decide. Bar Balance acts somewhat like an X-Ray on bars. The intrabars it analyzes are no secret; one can simply change the chart's resolution to see the same intrabars the indicator uses. What the indicator brings to traders is the precise count of up/down/neutral intrabars and, more importantly, the calculations it derives from them to present the information in a way that can make it easier to use in trading decisions.
How reliable is Bar Balance information?
By the same token that an up bar does not guarantee that more up bars will follow, future price movements cannot be inferred from the mere count of up/down/neutral intrabars. Price movement during any chart bar for which, let's say, 12 intrabars are analyzed, could be due to only one of those intrabars. One can thus easily see how only relying on bar balance information could be very misleading. The rationale behind Bar Balance is that when the information mined for multiple chart bars is aggregated, it can provide insight into the history behind chart bars, and thus some bias as to the strength of movements. An up chart bar where 11/12 intrabars are also up is assumed to be stronger than the same up bar where only 2/12 intrabars are up. This logic is not bulletproof, and sometimes Bar Balance will stray. Also, keep in mind that balance lines do not represent price momentum as RSI would. Bar Balance calculations have no idea where price is. Their perspective, like that of any historian, is very limited, constrained that it is to the narrow universe of up/down/neutral intrabar counts. You will thus see instances where price is moving up while Balance Momentum, for example, is moving down. When Bar Balance performs as intended, this indicates that the rally is weakening, which does necessarily imply that price will reverse. Occasionally, price will merrily continue to advance on weakening strength.
Divergences
Most of the divergence detection methods used here rely on a difference between the bias of a calculation involving a multi-bar average and a given bar's price direction. When using "Bar Balance on Bar" however, only the bar's balance and price movement are used. This is the default mode.
As usual, divergences are points of interest because they reveal imbalances, which may or may not become turning points. I do not share the overwhelming enthusiasm traders have for the purported ability of bullish/bearish divergences to indicate imminent reversals.
Superfluity
In "The Bed of Procrustes", Nassim Nicholas Taleb writes: To bankrupt a fool, give him information . Bar Balance can display lots of information. While learning to use a new indicator inevitably requires an adaptation period where we put it through its paces and try out all its options, once you have become used to Bar Balance and decide to adopt it, rigorously eliminate the components you don't use and configure the remaining ones so their visual prominence reflects their relative importance in your analysis. I tried to provide flexible options for traders to control this indicator's visuals for that exact reason—not for window dressing.
█ NOTES
For traders
• To avoid misleading traders who don't read script descriptions, the indicator shows nothing in the realtime bar.
• The Data Window shows key values for the indicator.
• All gradients used in this indicator determine their brightness intensities using advances/declines in the signal—not their relative position in a fixed scale.
• Note that because of the way gradients are optimized internally, changing their brightness will sometimes require bringing down the value a few steps before you see an impact.
• Because this indicator does not use volume, it will work on all markets.
For coders
• For those interested in gradients, this script uses an advanced version of the Advance/Decline gradient function from the PineCoders Color Gradient (16 colors) Framework . It allows more precise control over the range, steps and min/max values of the gradients.
• I use the PineCoders Coding Conventions for Pine to write my scripts.
• I used functions modified from the PineCoders MTF Selection Framework for the selection of timeframes.
█ THANKS TO:
— alexgrover who helped me think through the dampening method used to attenuate signal lines on high ratios of neutral intrabars.
— A guy called Kuan who commented on a Backtest Rookies presentation of their Volume Profile indicator . The technique I use to inspect intrabars is derived from Kuan's code.
— theheirophant , my partner in the exploration of the sometimes weird abysses of `security()`’s behavior at intrabar resolutions.
— midtownsk8rguy , my brilliant companion in mining the depths of Pine graphics. He is also the co-author of the PineCoders Color Gradient Frameworks .
Enigma UnlockedENIGMA Indicator: A Comprehensive Market Bias & Success Tracker
The ENIGMA Indicator is a powerful tool designed for traders who aim to identify market bias, track price movements, and evaluate trade performance using multiple timeframes. It combines multiple indicators and advanced logic to provide real-time insights into market trends, helping traders make more informed decisions.
Key Features
1. Multi-Timeframe Bias Calculation:
The ENIGMA Indicator tracks the market bias across multiple timeframes—Daily (D), 4-Hour (H4), 1-Hour (H1), 30-Minute (30M), 15-Minute (15M), 5-Minute (5M), and 1-Minute (1M).
How the Bias is Created:
The Bias is a key feature of the ENIGMA Indicator and is determined by comparing the current price with previous price levels for each timeframe.
- Bullish Bias (1): The market is considered **bullish** if the **current closing price** is higher than the **previous timeframe’s high**. This suggests that the market is trending upwards, and buyers are in control.
- Bearish Bias (-1): The market is considered **bearish** if the **current closing price** is lower than the **previous timeframe’s low**. This suggests that the market is trending downwards, and sellers are in control.
- Neutral Bias (0): The market is considered **neutral** if the price is between the **previous high** and **previous low**, indicating indecision or a range-bound market.
This bias calculation is performed independently for each timeframe. The **Bias** for each timeframe is then displayed in the **Bias Table** on your chart, providing a clear view of market direction across multiple timeframes.
2. **Customizable Table Display:**
- The indicator provides a table that displays the bias for each selected timeframe, clearly marking whether the market is **Bullish**, **Bearish**, or **Neutral**.
- Users can choose where to place the table on the chart: top-left, top-right, bottom-left, bottom-right, or center positions, allowing for easy and personalized chart management.
3. **Win/Loss Tracker:**
- The table also tracks the **success rate** of **buy** and **sell** trades based on price retests of key bias levels.
- For each period (Day, Week, Month), it tracks how often the price has moved in the direction of the initial bias, counting **Buy Wins**, **Sell Wins**, **Buy Losses**, and **Sell Losses**.
- This helps traders assess the effectiveness of the market bias over time and adjust their strategies accordingly.
#### **How the Success Calculation Determines the Success Rate:**
The **Success Calculation** is designed to track how often the price follows the direction of the market bias. It does this by evaluating how the price retests key levels associated with the identified market bias:
1. **Buy Success Calculation**:
- The success of a **Buy Trade** is determined when the price breaks above the **previous high** after a **bullish bias** has been identified.
- If the price continues to move higher (i.e., makes a new high) after breaking the previous high, the **buy trade is considered successful**.
- The indicator tracks how many times this condition is met and counts it as a **Buy Win**.
2. **Sell Success Calculation**:
- The success of a **Sell Trade** is determined when the price breaks below the **previous low** after a **bearish bias** has been identified.
- If the price continues to move lower (i.e., makes a new low) after breaking the previous low, the **sell trade is considered successful**.
- The indicator tracks how many times this condition is met and counts it as a **Sell Win**.
3. **Failure Calculations**:
- If the price does not move as expected (i.e., it does not continue in the direction of the identified bias), the trade is considered a **loss** and is tracked as **Buy Loss** or **Sell Loss**, depending on whether it was a bullish or bearish trade.
The ENIGMA Indicator keeps a running tally of **Buy Wins**, **Sell Wins**, **Buy Losses**, and **Sell Losses** over a set period (which can be customized to Days, Weeks, or Months). These statistics are updated dynamically in the **Bias Table**, allowing you to track your success rate in real-time and gain insights into the effectiveness of the market bias.
#### **Customizable Period Tracking:**
- The ENIGMA Indicator allows you to set custom tracking periods (e.g., 30 days, 2 weeks, etc.). The performance metrics reset after each tracking period, helping you monitor your success in different market conditions.
5. **Interactive Settings:**
- **Lookback Period**: Define how many bars the indicator should consider for bias calculations.
- **Success Tracking**: Set the number of candles to track for calculating the win/loss performance.
- **Time Threshold**: Set a time threshold to help define the period during which price retests are considered valid.
- **Info Tooltip**: You can enable the information tool in the settings to view detailed explanations of how wins and losses are calculated, ensuring you understand how the indicator works and how the results are derived.
#### **How to Use the ENIGMA Indicator:**
1. **Install the Indicator**:
- Add the ENIGMA Indicator to your chart. It will automatically calculate and display the bias for multiple timeframes.
2. **Interpret the Bias Table**:
- The bias table will show whether the market is **Bullish**, **Bearish**, or **Neutral** across different timeframes.
- Look for alignment between the timeframes—when multiple timeframes show the same bias, it may indicate a stronger trend.
3. **Use the Win/Loss Tracker**:
- Track how well your trades align with the bias using the **Win/Loss Tracker**. This helps you refine your strategy by understanding which timeframes and biases lead to higher success rates.
- For example, if you see a high number of **Buy Wins** and a low number of **Sell Wins**, you may decide to focus more on buying during bullish trends and avoid selling during bearish retracements.
4. **Track Your Period Performance**:
- The indicator will automatically track your performance over the set period (Days, Weeks, Months). Use this data to adjust your approach and evaluate the effectiveness of your trading strategy.
5. **Position the Table**:
- Customize the placement of the table on your chart based on your preferences. You can choose from options like **Top Left**, **Top Right**, **Bottom Left**, **Bottom Right**, or **Center** to keep the chart uncluttered.
6. **Adjust Settings**:
- Modify the indicator settings according to your trading style. You can adjust the **Lookback Period**, **Number of Candles to Track**, and **Time Threshold** to match the pace of your trading.
7. **Use the Info Tooltip**:
- Enable the **Info Tool** in the settings to understand how the Buy/Sell Wins and Losses are calculated. The tooltip provides a breakdown of how the indicator tracks price movements and calculates the success rate.
**Conclusion:**
The **ENIGMA Indicator** is designed to help traders make informed decisions by providing a clear view of the market bias and performance data. With the ability to track bias across multiple timeframes and evaluate your trading success, it can be a powerful tool for refining your trading strategies.
Whether you're looking to focus on a single timeframe or analyze multiple timeframes for a stronger bias, the ENIGMA Indicator adapts to your needs, providing both real-time market insights and performance feedback.
Multi-Anchored Linear Regression Channels [TANHEF]█ Overview:
The 'Multi-Anchored Linear Regression Channels ' plots multiple dynamic regression channels (or bands) with unique selectable calculation types for both regression and deviation. It leverages a variety of techniques, customizable anchor sources to determine regression lengths, and user-defined criteria to highlight potential opportunities.
Before getting started, it's worth exploring all sections, but make sure to review the Setup & Configuration section in particular. It covers key parameters like anchor type, regression length, bias, and signal criteria—essential for aligning the tool with your trading strategy.
█ Key Features:
⯁ Multi-Regression Capability:
Plot up to three distinct regression channels and/or bands simultaneously, each with customizable anchor types to define their length.
⯁ Regression & Deviation Methods:
Regressions Types:
Standard: Uses ordinary least squares to compute a simple linear trend by averaging the data and deriving a slope and endpoints over the lookback period.
Ridge: Introduces L2 regularization to stabilize the slope by penalizing large coefficients, which helps mitigate multicollinearity in the data.
Lasso: Uses L1 regularization through soft-thresholding to shrink less important coefficients, yielding a simpler model that highlights key trends.
Elastic Net: Combines L1 and L2 penalties to balance coefficient shrinkage and selection, producing a robust weighted slope that handles redundant predictors.
Huber: Implements the Huber loss with iteratively reweighted least squares (IRLS) and EMA-style weights to reduce the impact of outliers while estimating the slope.
Least Absolute Deviations (LAD): Reduces absolute errors using iteratively reweighted least squares (IRLS), yielding a slope less sensitive to outliers than squared-error methods.
Bayesian Linear: Merges prior beliefs with weighted data through Bayesian updating, balancing the prior slope with data evidence to derive a probabilistic trend.
Deviation Types:
Regressive Linear (Reverse): In reverse order (recent to oldest), compute weighted squared differences between the data and a line defined by a starting value and slope.
Progressive Linear (Forward): In forward order (oldest to recent), compute weighted squared differences between the data and a line defined by a starting value and slope.
Balanced Linear: In forward order (oldest to newest), compute regression, then pair to source data in reverse order (newest to oldest) to compute weighted squared differences.
Mean Absolute: Compute weighted absolute differences between each data point and its regression line value, then aggregate them to yield an average deviation.
Median Absolute: Determine the weighted median of the absolute differences between each data point and its regression line value to capture the central tendency of deviations.
Percent: Compute deviation as a percentage of a base value by multiplying that base by the specified percentage, yielding symmetric positive and negative deviations.
Fitted: Compare a regression line with high and low series values by computing weighted differences to determine the maximum upward and downward deviations.
Average True Range: Iteratively compute the weighted average of absolute differences between the data and its regression line to yield an ATR-style deviation measure.
Bias:
Bias: Applies EMA or inverse-EMA style weighting to both Regression and/or Deviation, emphasizing either recent or older data.
⯁ Customizable Regression Length via Anchors:
Anchor Types:
Fixed: Length.
Bar-Based: Bar Highest/Lowest, Volume Highest/Lowest, Spread Highest/Lowest.
Correlation: R Zero, R Highest, R Lowest, R Absolute.
Slope: Slope Zero, Slope Highest, Slope Lowest, Slope Absolute.
Indicator-Based: Indicators Highest/Lowest (ADX, ATR, BBW, CCI, MACD, RSI, Stoch).
Time-Based: Time (Day, Week, Month, Quarter, Year, Decade, Custom).
Session-Based: Session (Tokyo, London, New York, Sydney, Custom).
Event-Based: Earnings, Dividends, Splits.
External: Input Source Highest/Lowest.
Length Selection:
Maximum: The highest allowed regression length (also fixed value of “Length” anchor).
Minimum: The shortest allowed length, ensuring enough bars for a valid regression.
Step: The sampling interval (e.g., 1 checks every bar, 2 checks every other bar, etc.). Increasing the step reduces the loading time, most applicable to “Slope” and “R” anchors.
Adaptive lookback:
Adaptive Lookback: Enable to display regression regardless of too few historical bars.
⯁ Selecting Bias:
Bias applies separately to regression and deviation.
Positive values emphasize recent data (EMA-style), negative invert, and near-zero maintains balance. (e.g., a length 100, bias +1 gives the newest price ~7× more weight than the oldest).
It's best to apply bias to both (regression and deviation) or just the deviation. Biasing only regression may distort deviation visually, while biasing both keeps their relationship intuitive. Using bias only for deviation scales it without altering regression, offering unique analysis.
⯁ Scale Awareness:
Supports linear and logarithmic price scaling, the regression and deviations adjust accordingly.
⯁ Signal Generation & Alerts:
Customizable entry/exit signals and alerts, detailed in the dedicated section below.
⯁ Visual Enhancements & Real-World Examples:
Optional on-chart table display summarizing regression input criteria (display type, anchor type, source, regression type, regression bias, deviation type, deviation bias, deviation multiplier) and key calculated metrics (regression length, slope, Pearson’s R, percentage position within deviations, etc.) for quick reference.
█ Understanding R (Pearson Correlation Coefficient):
Pearson’s R gauges data alignment to a straight-line trend within the regression length:
Range: R varies between –1 and +1.
R = +1 → Perfect positive correlation (strong uptrend).
R = 0 → No linear relationship detected.
R = –1 → Perfect negative correlation (strong downtrend).
This script uses Pearson’s R as an anchor, adjusting regression length to target specific R traits. Strong R (±1) follows the regression channel, while weak R (0) shows inconsistency.
█ Understanding the Slope:
The slope is the direction and rate at which the regression line rises or falls per bar:
Positive Slope (>0): Uptrend – Steeper means faster increase.
Negative Slope (<0): Downtrend – Steeper means sharper drop.
Zero or Near-Zero Slope: Sideways – Indicating range-bound conditions.
This script uses highest and lowest slope as an anchor, where extremes highlight strong moves and trend lines, while values near zero indicate sideways action and possible support/resistance.
█ Setup & Configuration:
Whether you’re new to this script or want to quickly adjust all critical parameters, the panel below shows the main settings available. You can customize everything from the anchor type and maximum length to the bias, signal conditions, and more.
Scale (select Log Scale for logarithmic, otherwise linear scale).
Display (regression channel and/or bands).
Anchor (how regression length is determined).
Length (control bars analyzed):
• Max – Upper limit.
• Min – Prevents regression from becoming too short.
• Step – Controls scanning precision; increasing Step reduces load time.
Regression:
• Type – Calculation method.
• Bias – EMA-style emphasis (>0=new bars weighted more; <0=old bars weighted more).
Deviation:
• Type – Calculation method.
• Bias – EMA-style emphasis (>0=new bars weighted more; <0=old bars weighted more).
• Multiplier - Adjusts Upper and Lower Deviation.
Signal Criteria:
• % (Price vs Deviation) – (0% = lower deviation, 50% = regression, 100% = upper deviation).
• R – (0 = no correlation, ±1 = perfect correlation; >0 = +slope, <0 = -slope).
Table (analyze table of input settings, calculated results, and signal criteria).
Adaptive Lookback (display regression while too few historical bars).
Multiple Regressions (steps 2 to 7 apply to #1, #2, and #3 regressions).
█ Signal Generation & Alerts:
The script offers customizable entry and exit signals with flexible criteria and visual cues (background color, dots, or triangles). Alerts can also be triggered for these opportunities.
Percent Direction Criteria:
(0% = lower deviation, 50% = regression line, 100% = upper deviation)
Above %: Triggers if price is above a specified percent of the deviation channel.
Below %: Triggers if price is below a specified percent of the deviation channel.
(Blank): Ignores the percent‐based condition.
Pearson's R (Correlation) Direction Criteria:
(0 = no correlation, ±1 = perfect correlation; >0 = positive slope, <0 = negative slope)
Above R / Below R: Compares the correlation to a threshold.
Above│R│ / Below│R│: Uses absolute correlation to focus on strength, ignoring direction.
Zero to R: Checks if R is in the 0-to-threshold range.
(Blank): Ignores correlation-based conditions.
█ User Tips & Best Practices:
Choose an anchor type that suits your strategy, “Bar Highest/Lowest” automatically spots commonly used regression zones, while “│R│ Highest” targets strong linear trends.
Consider enabling or disabling the Adaptive Lookback feature to ensure you always have a plotted regression if your chart doesn’t meet the maximum-length requirement.
Use a small Step size (1) unless relying on R-correlation or slope-based anchors as the are time-consuming to calculate. Larger steps speed up calculations but reduce precision.
Fine-tune settings such as lookback periods, regression bias, and deviation multipliers, or trend strength. Small adjustments can significantly affect how channels and signals behave.
To reduce loading time , show only channels (not bands) and disable signals, this limits calculations to the last bar and supports more extreme criteria.
Use the table display to monitor anchor type, calculated length, slope, R value, and percent location at a glance—especially if you have multiple regressions visible simultaneously.
█ Conclusion:
With its blend of advanced regression techniques, flexible deviation options, and a wide range of anchor types, this indicator offers a highly adaptable linear regression channeling system. Whether you're anchoring to time, price extremes, correlation, slope, or external events, the tool can be shaped to fit a variety of strategies. Combined with customizable signals and alerts, it may help highlight areas of confluence and support a more structured approach to identifying potential opportunities.
cd_HTF_bias_CxOverview:
No matter our trading style or model, to increase our success rate, we must move in the direction of the trend and align with the Higher Time Frame (HTF). Trading "gurus" call this the HTF bias. While we small fish tend to swim in all directions, the smart way is to flow with the big wave and the current. This indicator is designed to help us anticipate that major wave.
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Details and Usage:
This indicator observes HTF price action across preferably seven different pairs, following specific rules. It confirms potential directional moves using CISD levels on a Medium Time Frame (MTF). In short, it forecasts the likely direction (HTF bias). The user can then search for trade opportunities aligned with this bias on a Lower Time Frame (LTF), using their preferred pair, entry model, and style.
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Timeframe Alignment:
The commonly accepted LTF/MTF/HTF combinations include:
• 1m – 15m – H4
• 3m – H1 – Daily / 3m – 30m – Daily
• 5m – H1 – Daily
• 15m – H4 – Weekly
• H1 – Daily – Monthly
• H4 – Weekly – Quarterly
Example: If you're trading with a 3m model on a 30m/3m setup, you should seek trades in the direction of the H1/Daily bias.
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How It Works:
The indicator first looks for sweeps on the selected HTF — when any of the last four candles are swept, the first condition is met.
The second step is confirmation with a CISD close on the MTF — once a candle closes above/below the CISD level, the second condition is fulfilled. This suggests the price has made its directional decision.
Example: If a previous HTF candle is swept and we receive a bearish CISD confirmation on H1, the HTF bias becomes bearish.
After this, you may switch to a more granular setup like HTF: 30m and MTF: 3m to look for trade entries aligned with the bias (e.g., 30m sweep + 3m CISD).
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How Is Bias Determined?
• HTF Sweep + MTF CISD = SC (Sweep & CISD)
• Latest Bullish SC → Bias: Bullish
• Latest Bearish SC → Bias: Bearish
• Price closes above the last Bearish SC → Bias: Strong Bullish
• Price closes below the last Bullish SC → Bias: Strong Bearish
• Strong Bullish bias + Bearish CISD (without HTF sweep) → Bias: Bullish
• Strong Bearish bias + Bullish CISD (without HTF sweep) → Bias: Bearish
• Bearish price violates SC high, but Bullish SC is untouched → Bias: Bullish
• Bullish price violates SC low, but Bearish SC is untouched → Bias: Bearish
• If neither side generates SC → Bias: No Bias
The logic is built on the idea that a price overcoming resistance is stronger, and encountering resistance is weaker. This model is based on the well-known “Daily Bias” structure, but with personal refinements.
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What’s on the Screen?
• Classic HTF zones (boxes)
• Potential MTF CISD levels
• Confirmed MTF lines
• Sweep zones when HTF sweeps occur
• Result table showing current bias status
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Usage:
• Select HTF and MTF timeframes aligned with your trading timeframe.
• Adjust color and position settings as needed.
• Enter up to seven pairs to track via the menu.
• Use the checkbox next to each pair to enable/disable them.
• If “Ignore these assets” is checked, all pairs will be disabled, and only the currently open chart pair will be tracked.
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Alerts:
You can choose alerts for Bullish, Bearish, Strong Bullish, or Strong Bearish conditions.
There are two types of alert sources:
1. From the indicator’s internal list
2. From TradingView’s watchlist
Visual example:
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How I Use It:
• For spot trades, I use HTF: Weekly and MTF: H4 and look for Bullish or Strong Bullish pairs.
• For scalping, I follow bias from HTF: Daily and MTF: H1.
Example: If the indicator shows a Bearish HTF Bias, I switch to HTF: 30m and MTF: 3m and enter trades once bearish conditions are met (timeframe alignment).
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Important Notes:
• The indicator defines CISD levels only at HTF high and low levels.
• If your chart is on a higher timeframe than your selected HTF/MTF, no data will appear.
Example: If HTF = H1 and MTF = 5m, opening a chart on H4 will result in a blank screen.
• The drawn CISD level on screen is the MTF CISD level.
• Not every alert should be traded. Always confirm with personal experience and visual validation.
• Receiving multiple Strong Bullish/Bearish alerts is intentional. (Trick 😊)
• Please share your feedback and suggestions!
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And Most Importantly:
Don't leave street animals without water and food!
Happy trading!
Mean Reversion and TrendfollowingTitle: Mean Reversion and Trendfollowing
Introduction:
This script presents a hybrid trading strategy that combines mean reversion and trend following techniques. The strategy aims to capitalize on short-term price corrections during a downtrend (mean reversion) as well as ride the momentum of a trending market (trend following). It uses a 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a 2-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) to generate buy and sell signals.
Key Features:
Combines mean reversion and trend following techniques
Utilizes 200-period SMA and 2-period RSI
Customizable starting date
Allows for enabling/disabling mean reversion or trend following modes
Adjustable position sizing for trend following and mean reversion
Script Description:
The script implements a trading strategy that combines mean reversion and trend following techniques. Users can enable or disable either of these techniques through the input options. The strategy uses a 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a 2-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) to generate buy and sell signals.
The mean reversion mode is active when the price is below the SMA200, while the trend following mode is active when the price is above the SMA200. The script generates buy signals when the RSI is below 20 (oversold) in mean reversion mode or when the price is above the SMA200 in trend following mode. The script generates sell signals when the RSI is above 80 (overbought) in mean reversion mode or when the price falls below 95% of the SMA200 in trend following mode.
Users can adjust the position sizing for both trend following and mean reversion modes using the input options.
To use this script on TradingView, follow these steps:
Open TradingView and load your preferred chart.
Click on the 'Pine Editor' tab located at the bottom of the screen.
Paste the provided script into the Pine Editor.
Click 'Add to Chart' to apply the strategy to your chart.
Please note that the past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Always use proper risk management and consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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The following is a summary of the underlying whitepaper (onlinelibrary.wiley.com) for this strategy:
This paper proposes a theory of securities market under- and overreactions based on two psychological biases: investor overconfidence about the precision of private information and biased self-attribution, which causes asymmetric shifts in investors' confidence as a function of their investment outcomes. The authors show that overconfidence implies negative long-lag autocorrelations, excess volatility, and public-event-based return predictability. Biased self-attribution adds positive short-lag autocorrelations (momentum), short-run earnings "drift," and negative correlation between future returns and long-term past stock market and accounting performance.
The paper explains that there is empirical evidence challenging the traditional view that securities are rationally priced to reflect all publicly available information. Some of these anomalies include event-based return predictability, short-term momentum, long-term reversal, high volatility of asset prices relative to fundamentals, and short-run post-earnings announcement stock price "drift."
The authors argue that investor overconfidence can lead to stock prices overreacting to private information signals and underreacting to public signals. This overreaction-correction pattern is consistent with long-run negative autocorrelation in stock returns, excess volatility, and further implications for volatility conditional on the type of signal. The market's tendency to over- or underreact to different types of information allows the authors to address the pattern that average announcement date returns in virtually all event studies are of the same sign as the average post-event abnormal returns.
Biased self-attribution implies short-run momentum and long-term reversals in security prices. The dynamic analysis based on biased self-attribution can also lead to a lag-dependent response to corporate events. Cash flow or earnings surprises at first tend to reinforce confidence, causing a same-direction average stock price trend. Later reversal of overreaction can lead to an opposing stock price trend.
The paper concludes by summarizing the findings, relating the analysis to the literature on exogenous noise trading, and discussing issues related to the survival of overconfident traders in financial markets.
Bollinger Bands Delta Matrix Analytics [BDMA] Bollinger Bands Delta Matrix Analytics (BDMA) v7.0
Deep Kinetic Engine – 5x8 Volatility & Delta Decision Matrix
1. Introduction & Concept
Bollinger Bands Delta Matrix Analytics (BDMA) v7.0 is an analytical framework that merges:
- Spatial analysis via Bollinger Bands (%B location),
- with a 4-factor Deep Kinetic Engine based on:
• Total Volume
• Buy Volume
• Sell Volume
• Delta (Buy – Sell) Z-Scores
and converts them into an expanded 5×8 decision matrix that continuously tracks where price is trading and how the underlying orderflow is behaving.
BDMA is not a trading system or strategy. It does not generate entry/exit signals.
Instead, it provides a structured contextual map of volatility, volume, and delta so traders can:
- identify climactic extensions vs. fakeouts,
- distinguish strong initiative moves vs. passive absorption,
- and detect squeezes, traps, and liquidity voids with a unified visual dashboard.
2. Spatial Engine – Bollinger S-States (S1–S5)
The spatial dimension of BDMA comes from classic Bollinger Bands.
Price location is expressed as Percent B (%B) and mapped into 5 spatial states (S-States):
S1 – Hyper Extension (Above Upper Band)
Price has pushed beyond the upper Bollinger Band.
Often associated with parabolic or blow-off behavior, late-stage momentum, and elevated reversal risk.
S2 – Resistance Test (Upper Zone)
Price trades in the upper Bollinger region but remains inside the bands.
Represents a sustained test of resistance, typically within an established or emerging uptrend.
S3 – Neutral Zone (Middle)
Price hovers around the mid-band.
This is the mean reversion gravity field where the market often consolidates or transitions between regimes.
S4 – Support Test (Lower Zone)
Price trades in the lower Bollinger region but inside the bands.
Represents a sustained test of support within range or downtrend structures.
S5 – Hyper Drop (Below Lower Band)
Price extends below the lower Bollinger Band.
Often aligned with panic, forced liquidations, or capitulation-type behavior, with increased snap-back risk.
These 5 S-States define the vertical axis (rows) of the BDMA matrix.
3. Deep Kinetic Engine – 4-Factor Z-Score & D-States (D1–D8)
The Deep Kinetic Engine transforms raw volume and delta into standardized Z-Scores to measure how abnormal current activity is relative to its recent history.
For each bar:
- Raw Buy Volume is estimated from the candle’s position within its range
- Raw Sell Volume is complementary to buy volume
- Raw Delta = Buy Volume – Sell Volume
- Total Volume = Buy Volume + Sell Volume
These 4 series are then normalized using a unified Z-Score lookback to produce:
1. Z_Vol_Total – overall activity and liquidity intensity
2. Z_Vol_Buy – aggression from buyers (attack)
3. Z_Vol_Sell – aggression from sellers (defense or attack)
4. Z_Delta – net victory of one side over the other
Thresholds for Extreme, Significant, and Neutral Z-Score levels are fully configurable, allowing you to tune the sensitivity of the kinetic states.
Using Z_Vol_Total and Z_Delta (plus threshold logic), BDMA assigns one of 8 Deep Kinetic states (D-States):
D1 – Climax Buy
Extreme Total Volume + Extreme Positive Delta → Buying climax or blow-off behavior.
D2 – Strong Buy
High Volume + High Positive Delta → Confirmed bullish initiative activity.
D3 – Weak Buy / Fakeout
Low Volume + High Positive Delta → Bullish delta without commitment, low-liquidity breakout risk.
D4 – Absorption / Conflict
High Volume + Neutral Delta → Aggressive two-way trade, strong absorption, war zone behavior.
D5 – Neutral
Low Volume + Neutral Delta → Low-energy environment with low conviction.
D6 – Weak Sell / Fakeout
Low Volume + High Negative Delta → Bearish delta without commitment, low-liquidity breakdown risk.
D7 – Strong Sell
High Volume + High Negative Delta → Confirmed bearish initiative activity.
D8 – Capitulation
Extreme Volume + Extreme Negative Delta → Panic selling or capitulation regime.
These 8 D-States define the horizontal axis (columns) of the BDMA matrix.
4. The 5×8 BDMA Decision Matrix
The core of BDMA is a 5×8 matrix where:
- Rows (1–5) = Spatial S-States (S1…S5)
- Columns (1–8) = Kinetic D-States (D1…D8)
Each of the 40 possible combinations (SxDy) is pre-computed and mapped to:
- a Status or Regime Title (for example: Climax Breakout, Bear Trap Spring, Capitulation Breakdown),
- a Bias (Climactic Bull, Neutral, Strong Bear, Conflict or Reversal Risk, and similar labels),
- and a Strategic Signal or Consideration (for example: High reversal risk, Wait for confirmation, Low probability zone – avoid).
Internally, BDMA resolves all 40 regimes so the current state can be displayed on the dashboard without performance overhead.
5. Key Regime Families (How to Read the Matrix)
5.1. Breakouts and Breakdowns
Climax Breakout (Top-side)
Spatial S1 with Kinetic D1 or D2
Bias: Explosive or Extreme Bull
Signal:
- Strong or climactic upside extension with abnormal bullish orderflow.
- Trend continuation is possible, but reversal risk is extremely high after blow-off phases.
Low-Conviction Breakout (Fakeout Risk)
S1 with D3 (Weak Buy, low liquidity)
Bias: Weak Bull – Caution
Signal:
- Breakout not supported by volume.
- Elevated risk of failed auction or bull trap.
Capitulation Breakdown (Bottom-side)
Spatial S5 with Kinetic D8
Bias: Climactic Bear (panic)
Signal:
- Capitulation-type selling or forced liquidations.
- Trend can still proceed, but snap-back or violent short-covering risk is high.
Initiative Breakdown vs. Weak Breakdown
- Strong, high-volume breakdown typically corresponds to D7 (Strong Sell).
- Low-volume breakdown often corresponds to D6 (Weak Sell or Fakeout) with potential for failure.
5.2. Absorption, Traps and Springs
Absorption at Resistance (Top-side conflict)
S1 or S2 with D4 (Absorption or Conflict)
Bias: Conflict – Extreme Tension
Signal:
- Heavy two-way trade near resistance.
- Potential distribution or reversal if sellers begin to dominate.
Bull Trap or Failed Auction
Typically S1 with D6 (Weak Sell breakdown behavior after a top-side attempt)
Indicates a breakout attempt that fails and reverses, often after poor liquidity structure.
Absorption at Support and Bear Trap (Spring)
S4 or S5 with D4 or D3
Bias: Conflict or Weak Bear – Reversal Risk
Signal:
- Aggressive buying into lows (spring or shakeout behavior).
- Potential bear trap if price reclaims lost territory.
5.3. Trend Phases
Strong Uptrend Phases
Typically seen when S2–S3 combine with strong bullish kinetic behavior.
Bias: Strong or Extreme Bull
Signal:
- Pullbacks into S3 or S4 with supportive kinetic states often act as trend continuation zones.
Strong Downtrend Phases
Typically seen when S3–S4 combine with strong bearish kinetic behavior.
Bias: Strong or Extreme Bear
Signal:
- Rallies into resistance with strong bearish kinetic backing may act as continuation sell zones.
5.4. Neutral, Exhaustion and Squeeze
Exhaustion or Liquidity Void
S1 or S5 with D5 (Neutral kinetics)
Bias: Neutral or Exhaustion
Signal:
- Spatial extremes without kinetic confirmation.
- Often marks the end of a move, with poor follow-through.
Choppy, Low-Activity Range
S3 with D5
Bias: Neutral
Signal:
- Low volume, low conviction market.
- Typically a low-probability environment where standing aside can be logical.
Squeeze or High-Tension Zone
S3 with D4 or tightly clustered kinetic values
Bias: Conflict or High Tension
Signal:
- Hidden battle inside a volatility contraction.
- Often precedes large directionally-biased moves.
6. Dashboard Layout & Reading Guide
When Show Dashboard is enabled, BDMA displays:
1. Title and Status Line
Name of the current regime (for example: Climax Breakout, Bear Trap Spring, Mean Reversion).
2. Bias Line
Plain-language summary of directional context such as Climactic Bull, Strong Bear, Neutral, or Conflict and Reversal Risk.
3. Signal or Strategic Notes
Concise guidance focused on risk and context, not entries. For example:
- High reversal risk – aggressive traders only
- Wait for confirmation (break or rejection)
- Low probability zone – avoid taking new positions
4. Kinetic Profile (4-Factor Z-Score)
Shows the current Z-Scores for Total Volume (Activity), Buy Volume (Attack), Sell Volume (Defense), and Delta (Net Result).
5. Matrix Heatmap (5×8)
Visual representation of S-State vs. D-State with color coding:
- Bullish clusters in a green spectrum
- Bearish clusters in a red spectrum
- Conflict or exhaustion zones in yellow, amber, or neutral tones
The dashboard can be repositioned (top right, middle right, or bottom right) and its size can be adjusted (Tiny, Small, Normal, or Large) to fit different layouts.
7. Inputs & Customization
7.1. Core Parameters (Bollinger and Z-Score)
- Bollinger Length and Standard Deviation define the spatial engine.
- Z-Score Lookback (All Factors) defines how many bars are used to normalize volume and delta.
7.2. Deep Kinetic Thresholds
- Extreme Threshold defines what is considered climactic (D1 or D8).
- Significant Threshold distinguishes strong initiative vs. weak or fakeout behavior.
- Neutral Threshold is the band within which delta is treated as neutral.
These thresholds allow you to tune the sensitivity of the kinetic classification to fit different timeframes or instruments.
7.3. Calculation Method (Volume Delta)
Geometry (Approx)
- Fast, non-repainting approach based on candle geometry.
- Suitable for most users and real-time decision-making.
Intrabar (Precise)
- Uses lower-timeframe data for more precise volume delta estimation.
- Intrabar mode can repaint and requires compatible data and plan support on the platform.
- Best used for post-analysis or research, not blind automation.
7.4. Visuals and Interface
- Toggle Bollinger Bands visibility on or off.
- Switch between Dark and Light color themes.
- Configure dashboard visibility, matrix heatmap display, position, and size.
8. Multi-Language Semantic Engine (Asia and Middle East Focus)
BDMA v7.0 includes a fully integrated multi-language layer, targeting a wide geographic user base.
Supported Languages:
English, Türkçe, Русский, 简体中文, हिन्दी, العربية, فارسی, עברית
All dashboard labels, regime titles, bias descriptions, and signal texts are dynamically translated via an internal dictionary, while semantic meaning is kept consistent across languages.
This makes BDMA suitable for multi-language communities, study groups, and educational content across different regions.
However, due to the heavy computational load of the Deep Kinetic Engine and TradingView’s strict Pine Script execution limits, it was not possible to expand support to additional languages. Adding more translation layers would significantly increase memory usage and exceed runtime constraints. For this reason, the current language set represents the maximum optimized configuration achievable without compromising performance or stability.
9. Practical Usage Notes
BDMA is most powerful when used as a contextual overlay on top of market structure (HH, HL, LH, LL), higher-timeframe trend, key levels, and your own execution framework.
Recommended usage:
- Identify the current regime (Status and Bias).
- Check whether price location (S-State) and kinetic behavior (D-State) agree with your trade idea.
- Be especially cautious in climactic and absorption or conflict zones, where volatility and risk can be elevated.
Avoid treating BDMA as an automatic green equals buy, red equals sell tool.
The real edge comes from understanding where you are in the volatility or kinetic spectrum, not from forcing signals out of the matrix.
10. Limitations & Important Warnings
BDMA does not predict the future.
It organizes current and recent data into a structured context.
Volume data quality depends on the underlying symbol, exchange, and broker feed.
Forex, crypto, indices, and stocks may all behave differently.
Intrabar mode can repaint and is sensitive to lower-timeframe data availability and your plan type.
Use it with extra caution and primarily for research.
No indicator can remove the need for clear trading rules, disciplined risk management, and psychological control.
11. Disclaimer
This script is provided strictly for educational and analytical purposes.
It is not a trading system, signal service, financial product, or investment advice.
Nothing in this indicator or its description should be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.
Past behavior of any indicator or market pattern does not guarantee future results.
Trading and investing involve significant risk, including the risk of losing more than your initial capital in leveraged products.
You are solely responsible for your own decisions, risk management, and results.
By using this script, you acknowledge that you understand these risks and agree that the author or authors and publisher or publishers are not liable for any loss or damage arising from its use.
Cnagda Liquidit Trading SystemCnagda Liquidit Trading System helps spot where price is likely to trap traders and reverse, then gives simple, actionable Level to entry, place SL, and take profits with confidence. It blends imbalance zones, trend bias, order blocks, liquidity pools, high-probability fake Signal, and context-aware candle patterns into one clean workflow.
🟩🟥 Imbalance boxes: “Crowd rushed, gaps left”
What it is: Green/red boxes mark fast, one-sided moves where price “skipped” orders—think FVG-like zones that often get revisited.
Why it helps: Price frequently pulls back to “fill” these zones, creating clean retest entries with logical stops.
⏩How to use:
Green box = potential demand retest; Red box = potential supply retest. Enter on pullback into box, not on first impulse. Put stop on far side of box and aim first targets at recent swing points.
↕️ Swing bias (HH/HL vs LH/LL): “Which way is the road?”
What it is: Higher-highs/higher-lows = up-bias; Lower-highs/lower-lows = down-bias. system plots Buy/Sell OB levels aligned with that bias.
Why it helps: Trading with the broader flow reduces “hero trades” against institutions. Bias gives clearer entries and cleaner drawdowns.
⏩How to use:
Up-bias: look for long on Buy OB retests. Down-bias: look for short on Sell OB retests. Wait for a small rejection/engulfing to confirm before triggering.
🧱Order blocks: “Where big players remember”
What it is: last opposite-colored candle before an impulsive move—these zones often hold memory and reaction. system plots these as Buy/Sell OB lines.
Why it helps: Many breakouts pull back to the origin. Good entries often happen on retest, not on the breakout chase.
⏩ How to use:
Let price return into the OB, show wick rejection, and decent volume. Enter with stop beyond OB; define risk-reward before entry.
📊Volume coloring: “How Volume is move?”
What it is: Bar color reflects relative volume; inside bars are black. The dashboard also shows Volume and “Volume vs Prev.”
Why it helps: Patterns without volume often fade; volume validates strength and intent of moves.
⏩ How to use:
Favor entries where imbalance/OB/liquidity-grab coincide with higher volume. If volume is weak, reduce size or skip.
🧲 BSL/SSL liquidity pools: “Fishing for stops”
What it is: Equal highs cluster stops above (BSL); equal lows cluster stops below (SSL). system plots these and highlights the nearest one (“magnet”).
Why it helps: Price often sweeps these pools to trigger stops before reversing. This is a prime trap-reversal location.
⏩ How to use:
Watch nearest BSL/SSL. If price wicks through and closes back inside, anticipate a reversal. Trade reaction, not first poke. When price closes beyond, consider that pool mitigated and move on.
🟢🔴 Advanced liquidity grab: “Catch fakeout”
What it is: Bullish grab = makes a new low beyond a prior low but closes back above it, with a long lower wick, small body, and higher volume. Bearish is mirror. Labeled automatically.
Why it helps: It exposes trap moves (stop hunts) and often precedes true direction.
⏩ How to use:
Best when it aligns with a nearby imbalance/OB and supportive volume. Enter on reversal candle break or on retest. Stop goes beyond sweep wick.
🧠 Smart candlestick patterns (only in right place)
What it is: Engulfing, Hammer, Shooting Star, Hanging Man, Doji (with high volume), Morning/Evening Star, Piercing—but marked “effective” only if context (swing/trend/location) agrees.
Why it helps: same pattern in the wrong place is noise; in the right place, it’s signal.
⏩ How to use:
Location first (BSL/SSL/OB/imbalance), then pattern. Treat pattern as trigger/confirmation—one fresh label shows to keep chart clean.
🧭 Dashboard: “Context in a glance”
⏩ Reversal Level: current swing anchor—expect turns or reactions nearby; great for alerts and planning.
⏩ Volume vs Prev + Volume: Strength meter for signal candle—higher adds conviction.
⏩ Nearest Pool: next “magnet” area—look for sweeps/rejections there.
🧩Step-by-step trading flow (with mindset)
⏩ Set bias: HH/HL = long bias, LH/LL = short bias. Counter-trend only on clean sweeps with strong confirmation.
⏩ Find magnet: Check Nearest Pool (BSL/SSL). Focus attention there; it saves screen time.
⏩ Wait for event: Look for a sweep/grab label, or sharp rejection at pool/OB/imbalance. Avoid FOMO.
⏩ Add confluence: Stack 2–3 of these—imbalance box, OB, contextual pattern, supportive volume.
⏩Plan entry: Bullish: trigger above reversal candle high or take retest of FVG/OB. Stop below sweep wick/zone. Target at least 1:1.5–1:2.
Bearish: mirror above.
⏩Manage smartly: Take partials, move to breakeven or trail thoughtfully. Don’t drag stops inside zone out of emotion.
🎛️ Parameter tuning (to reduce human error)
⏩ swingLen: Smaller = faster but noisier; larger = cleaner but slower. Backtest first, then go live.
⏩ Tolerance (ATR or percent): ATR tolerance adapts to volatility (good for fast markets and lower TFs). Start around 0.15–0.30. In calm markets, try percent 0.05–0.15%.
⏩ minBarsGap: Start with 3–5 so equal highs/lows are truly equal—reduces false pools.
❌Common mistakes → ✅ Better habits
⏩Chasing every breakout → Wait for sweep/rejection, then confirm.
⏩Ignoring volume → Validate strength; cut size or skip on weak volume.
⏩Losing history of pools → If reviewing/backtesting, keep mitigated pools visible (dashed/faded).
⏩Over-tight tolerance/too small swingLen → Increases false signals; backtest to find balance.
📝 checklist (before entry)
⏩ Is there a nearby BSL/SSL and did a sweep/grab happen there?
⏩ Is there a close imbalance/OB that price can retest?
⏩ Do we have an effective pattern plus supportive volume?
⏩Is the stop beyond the wick/zone and RR ≥ 1:1.5?
•?((¯°·._.• 🎀 𝐻𝒶𝓅𝓅𝓎 𝒯𝓇𝒶𝒹𝒾𝓃𝑔 🎀 •._.·°¯((?•
PM Range Breaker [CHE] PM Range Breaker — Premarket bias with first-five range breaks, optional SWDEMA regime latch, and simple two-times-range targets
Summary
This indicator sets a once-per-day directional bias during New York premarket and then tracks a strict first-five-minutes range from the session open. After the first five complete, it marks clean breakouts and can project targets at two times the measured range. A second mode latches an EMA-based regime to inform the bias and optional background tinting. A compact panel reports live state, first-five levels, and rolling hit rates of both bias modes using a user-defined midday close for statistics.
Motivation: Why this design?
Intraday traders often get whipsawed by early noise or by fast flips in trend filters. This script commits to a bias at a single premarket minute and then waits for the market to present an objective structure: the first-five range. Breaks after that window are clearer and easier to manage. The alternative SWDEMA regime gives a slower, latched context for users who prefer a trend scaffold rather than a midpoint reference.
What’s different vs. standard approaches?
Baseline: Typical open-range-breakout lines or a single moving-average filter without daily commitment.
Architecture differences:
Bias decision at a fixed New York time using either a midpoint lookback (“Classic”) or a two-EMA regime latch (“SWDEMA”).
Strict five-minute window from session open; breakout shapes print only after that window.
Single-shot breakout direction per session (debounce) and optional two-times-range targets.
On-chart panel with hit rates using a configurable midday close for statistics.
Practical effect: Cleaner visuals, fewer repeated signals, and a traceable daily decision that can be evaluated over time.
How it works (technical)
Time handling uses New York session times for premarket decision, open, first-five end, and a midday statistics checkpoint.
Classic bias: A midpoint is computed from the highest and lowest over a user period; at the premarket minute, the bias is set long when the close is above the midpoint, short otherwise.
SWDEMA bias: Two EMAs define a regime score that requires price and trend agreement; when both agree on a confirmed bar, the regime latches. At the premarket minute, the daily bias is set from the current regime.
The first-five range captures high and low from open until the end minute, then freezes. Breakouts are detected after that window using close-based cross logic.
The script draws range lines and optional targets at two times the frozen range. A session break direction latch prevents duplicate break markers.
Statistics compare daily open and a configurable midday close to record if the chosen bias aligned with the move.
Optional elements include EMA lines, midpoint line, latched-regime background, and regime switch markers.
Data aggregation for day logic and the first-five window is sampled on one-minute data with explicit lookahead off. On charts above one minute, values update intra-bar until the underlying minute closes.
Parameter Guide
Premarket Start (NY) — Minute when the bias is decided — Default: 08:30 — Move earlier for more stability; later for recency.
Market Open (NY) — Session start used for the first-five window — Default: 09:30 — Align to instrument’s RTH if different.
First-5 End (NY) — End of the first-five window — Default: 09:35 — Extend slightly to capture wider opening ranges.
Day End (NY) for Stats — Midday checkpoint for hit rate — Default: 12:00 — Use a later time for a longer evaluation window.
Show First-5 Lines — Draw the frozen range lines — Default: On — Turn off if your chart is crowded.
Show Bias Background (Session) — Tint by daily bias during session — Default: On — Useful for directional context.
Show Break Shapes — Print breakout triangles — Default: On — Disable if you only want lines and alerts.
Show 2R Targets (Optional) — Plot targets at two times the range — Default: On — Switch off if you manage exits differently.
Line Length Right — Extension length of drawn lines — Default: 20 (bars) — Increase for slower timeframes.
High/Low Line Colors — Visual colors for range levels — Defaults: Green/Red — Adjust to your theme.
Long/Short Bias Colors — Background tints — Defaults: Green/Red with high transparency — Lower transparency for stronger emphasis.
Show Corner Panel — Enable the info panel — Default: On — Centralizes status and numbers.
Show Hit Rates in Panel — Include success rates — Default: On — Turn off to reduce panel rows.
Panel Position — Anchor on chart — Default: Top right — Move to avoid overlap.
Panel Size — Text size in panel — Default: Small — Increase on high-resolution displays.
Dark Panel — Dark theme for the panel — Default: On — Match your chart background.
Show EMA Lines — Plot blue and red EMAs — Default: Off — Enable for SWDEMA context.
Show Midpoint Line — Plot the midpoint — Default: Off — Useful for Classic mode visualization.
Midpoint Lookback Period — Bars for high-low midpoint — Default: 300 — Larger values stabilize; smaller values respond faster.
Midpoint Line Color — Color for midpoint — Default: Gray — A neutral line works best.
SWDEMA Lengths (Blue/Red) — Periods for the two EMAs — Defaults: 144 and 312 — Longer values reduce flips.
Sources (Blue/Red) — Price sources — Defaults: Close and HLC3 — Adjust if you prefer consistency.
Offsets (Blue/Red) — Pixel offsets for EMA plots — Defaults: zero — Use only for visual shift.
Show Latched Regime Background — Background by SWDEMA regime — Default: Off — Separate from session bias.
Latched Background Transparency — Opacity of regime background — Default: eighty-eight — Lower value for stronger tint.
Show Latch Switch Markers — Plot regime change markers — Default: Off — For auditing regime changes.
Bias Mode — Classic midpoint or SWDEMA latch — Default: Classic — Choose per your style.
Background Mode — Session bias or SWDEMA regime — Default: Session — Decide which background narrative you want.
Reading & Interpretation
Panel: Shows the active bias, first-five high and low, and a state that reads Building during the window, Ready once frozen, and Break arrows when a breakout occurs. Hit rates show the percentage of days where each bias mode aligned with the midday move.
Colors and shapes: Green background implies long bias; red implies short bias. Triangle markers denote the first valid breakout after the first-five window. Optional regime markers flag regime changes.
Lines: First-five high and low form the core structure. Optional targets mark a level at two times the frozen range from the breakout side.
Practical Workflows & Combinations
Trend following: Choose a bias mode. Wait for the first clean breakout after the first-five window in the direction of the bias. Confirm with structure such as higher highs and higher lows or lower highs and lower lows.
Exits and risk: Conservative users can trail behind the opposite side of the first-five range. Aggressive users can scale near the two-times-range target.
Multi-asset and multi-TF: Works well on intraday timeframes from one minute upward. For non-US sessions, adjust the time inputs to the instrument’s regular trading hours.
Behavior, Constraints & Performance
Repaint and confirmation: Bias and regime decisions use confirmed bars. Breakout signals evaluate on bar close at the chart timeframe. On higher timeframes, minute-based sources update within the live bar until the minute closes.
security and HTF: The script samples one-minute data. Lookahead is off. Values stabilize once the source minute closes.
Resources: `max_bars_back` is five thousand. Drawing objects and the panel update efficiently, with position extensions handled on the last bar.
Known limits: Midday statistics use the configured time, not the official daily close. Session logic assumes New York session timing. Targets are simple multiples of the first-five range and do not adapt to volatility beyond that structure.
Sensible Defaults & Quick Tuning
Start with Classic bias, midpoint lookback at three hundred, and all visuals on.
Too many flips in context → switch to SWDEMA mode or increase EMA lengths.
Breakouts feel noisy → extend the first-five end by a minute or two, or wait for a retest by your own rules.
Too sluggish → reduce midpoint lookback or shorten EMA lengths.
Chart cluttered → hide EMA or midpoint lines and keep only range levels and breakout shapes.
What this indicator is—and isn’t
This is a visualization and signal layer for session bias and first-five structure. It does not manage orders, position sizing, or risk. It is not predictive. Use it alongside market structure, execution rules, and independent risk controls.
Disclaimer
The content provided, including all code and materials, is strictly for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as, and should not be interpreted as, financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or an offer of any financial product or service. All strategies, tools, and examples discussed are provided for illustrative purposes to demonstrate coding techniques and the functionality of Pine Script within a trading context.
Any results from strategies or tools provided are hypothetical, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve high risk, including the potential loss of principal, and may not be suitable for all individuals. Before making any trading decisions, please consult with a qualified financial professional to understand the risks involved.
By using this script, you acknowledge and agree that any trading decisions are made solely at your discretion and risk.
Do not use this indicator on Heikin-Ashi, Renko, Kagi, Point-and-Figure, or Range charts, as these chart types can produce unrealistic results for signal markers and alerts.
Best regards and happy trading
Chervolino
Many thanks to LonesomeTheBlue
for the original work. I adapted the midpoint calculation for this script. www.tradingview.com
Lorentzian Harmonic Flow - Temporal Market Dynamic Lorentzian Harmonic Flow - Temporal Market Dynamic (⚡LHF)
By: DskyzInvestments
What this is
LHF Pro is a research‑grade analytical instrument that models market time as a compressible medium , extracts directional flow in curved time using heavy‑tailed kernels, and consults a history‑based memory bank for context before synthesizing a final, bounded probabilistic score . It is not a mashup; each subsystem is mathematically coupled to a single clock (time dilation via gamma) and a single lens (Lorentzian heavy‑tailed weighting). This script is dense in logic (and therefore heavy) because it prioritizes rigor, interpretability, and visual clarity.
Intended use
Education and research. This tool expresses state recognition and regime context—not guarantees. It does not place orders. It is fully functional as published and contains no placeholders. Nothing herein is financial advice.
Why this is original and useful
Curved time: Markets do not move at a constant pace. LHF Pro computes a Lorentz‑style gamma (γ) from relative speed so its analytical windows contract when the tape accelerates and relax when it slows.
Heavy‑tailed lens: Lorentzian kernels weight information with fat tails to respect rare but consequential extremes (unlike Gaussian decay).
Memory of regimes: A K‑nearest‑neighbors engine works in a multi‑feature space using Lorentz kernels per dimension and exponential age fade , returning a memory bias (directional expectation) and assurance (confidence mass).
One ecosystem: Squeeze, TCI, flow, acceleration, and memory live on the same clock and blend into a single final_score —visualized and documented on the dashboard.
Cognitive map: A 2D heat map projects memory resonance by age and flow regime, making “where the past is speaking” visible.
Shadow portfolio metaphor: Neighbor outcomes act like tiny hypothetical positions whose weighted average forms an educational pressure gauge (no execution, purely didactic).
Mathematical framework (full transparency)
1) Returns, volatility, and speed‑of‑market
Log return: rₜ = ln(closeₜ / closeₜ₋₁)
Realized vol: rv = stdev(r, vol_len); vol‑of‑vol: burst = |rv − rv |
Speed‑of‑market (analog to c): c = c_multiplier × (EMA(rv) + 0.5 × EMA(burst) + ε)
2) Trend velocity and Lorentz gamma (time dilation)
Trend velocity: v = |close − close | / (vel_len × ATR)
Relative speed: v_rel = v / c
Gamma: γ = 1 / √(1 − v_rel²), stabilized by caps (e.g., ≤10)
Interpretation: γ > 1 compresses market time → use shorter effective windows.
3) Adaptive temporal scale
Adaptive length: L = base_len / γ^power (bounded for safety)
Harmonic horizons: Lₛ = L × short_ratio, Lₘ = L × mid_ratio, Lₗ = L × long_ratio
4) Lorentzian smoothing and Harmonic Flow
Kernel weight per lag i: wᵢ = 1 / (1 + (d/γ)²), d = i/L
Horizon baselines: lw_h = Σ wᵢ·price / Σ wᵢ
Z‑deviation: z_h = (close − lw_h)/ATR
Harmonic Flow (HFL): HFL = (w_short·zₛ + w_mid·zₘ + w_long·zₗ) / (w_short + w_mid + w_long)
5) Flow kinematics
Velocity: HFL_vel = HFL − HFL
Acceleration (curvature): HFL_acc = HFL − 2·HFL + HFL
6) Squeeze and temporal compression
Bollinger width vs Keltner width using L
Squeeze: BB_width < KC_width × squeeze_mult
Temporal Compression Index: TCI = base_len / L; TCI > 1 ⇒ compressed time
7) Entropy (regime complexity)
Shannon‑inspired proxy on |log returns| with numerical safeguards and smoothing. Higher entropy → more chaotic regime.
8) Memory bank and Lorentzian k‑NN
Feature vector (5D):
Outcomes stored: forward returns at H5, H13, H34
Per‑dimension similarity: k(Δ) = 1 / (1 + Δ²), weighted by user’s feature weights
Age fading: weight_age = mem_fade^age_bars
Neighbor score: sᵢ = similarityᵢ × weight_ageᵢ
Memory bias: mem_bias = Σ sᵢ·outcomeᵢ / Σ sᵢ
Assurance: mem_assurance = Σ sᵢ (confidence mass)
Normalization: mem_bias normalized by ATR and clamped into band
Shadow portfolio metaphor: neighbors behave like micro‑positions; their weighted net forward return becomes a continuous, adaptive expectation.
9) Blended score and breakout proxy
Blend factor: α_mem = 0.45 + 0.15 × (γ − 1)
Final score: final_score = (1−α_mem)·tanh(HFL / (flow_thr·1.5)) + α_mem·tanh(mem_bias_norm)
Breakout probability (bounded): energy = cap(TCI−1) + |HFL_acc|×k + cap(γ−1)×k + cap(mem_assurance)×k; breakout_prob = sigmoid(energy). Caps avoid runaway “100%” readings.
Inputs — every control, purpose, mechanics, and tuning
🔮 Lorentz Core
Auto‑Adapt (Vol/Entropy): On = L responds to γ and entropy (breathes with regime), Off = static testing.
Base Length: Calm‑market anchor horizon. Lower (21–28) for fast tapes; higher (55–89+) for slow.
Velocity Window (vel_len): Bars used in v. Shorter = more reactive γ; longer = steadier.
Volatility Window (vol_len): Bars used for rv/burst (c). Shorter = more sensitive c.
Speed‑of‑Market Multiplier (c_multiplier): Raises/lowers c. Lower values → easier γ spikes (more adaptation). Aim for strong trends to peak around γ ≈ 2–4.
Gamma Compression Power: Exponent of γ in L. <1 softens; >1 amplifies adaptation swings.
Max Kernel Span: Upper bound on smoothing loop (quality vs CPU).
🎼 Harmonic Flow
Short/Mid/Long Horizon Ratios: Partition L into fast/medium/slow views. Smaller short_ratio → faster reaction; larger long_ratio → sturdier bias.
Weights (w_short/w_mid/w_long): Governs HFL blend. Higher w_short → nimble; higher w_long → stable.
📈 Signals
Squeeze Strictness: Threshold for BB1 = compressed (coiled spring); <1 = dilated.
v/c: Relative speed; near 1 denotes extreme pacing. Diagnostic only.
Entropy: Regime complexity; high entropy suggests caution, smaller size, or waiting for order to return.
HFL: Curved‑time directional flow; sign and magnitude are the instantaneous bias.
HFL_acc: Curvature; spikes often accompany regime ignition post‑squeeze.
Mem Bias: Directional expectation from historical analogs (ATR‑normalized, bounded). Aligns or conflicts with HFL.
Assurance: Confidence mass from neighbors; higher → more reliable memory bias.
Squeeze: ON/RELEASE/OFF from BB
Non-Psychological Levels🟩 Non-Psychological Levels is a structural analysis tool that segments price action into objective ranges, identifying Broken and Unbroken levels without relying on psychological or time-based assumptions. By emphasizing mechanically derived price behavior, it provides traders with a clear framework for analyzing support and resistance in a consistent and unbiased manner across various market conditions.
This indicator introduces a new approach to understanding market structure by focusing on price movement within defined segments, free from behavioral patterns, round numbers, or specific time intervals. While the indicator is time-agnostic in design, it works within the natural time progression of the chart, ensuring that segmentation aligns with the inherent structure of price movement. Broken levels, where price has breached a structural boundary, and Unbroken levels, which remain intact, are visualized with horizontal lines. These structural zones are complemented by dynamically boxed segments that contextualize both historical and ongoing price behavior.
By offering an objective perspective, the Non-Psychological Levels indicator complements psychology-based tools, helping traders explore market dynamics from multiple angles. When structural levels align with psychological zones, they reinforce critical price areas; when they differ, they provide opportunities to analyze price behavior from an alternative lens. This indicator is designed as both an educational framework and a practical tool, encouraging a deeper understanding of structural price behavior in technical analysis.
⭕ THEORY AND CONCEPT ⭕
The Non-Psychological Levels indicator is grounded in the principle of analyzing price behavior without reliance on psychological assumptions or time-based factors. Its primary purpose is to provide a structural framework for identifying support and resistance levels by focusing solely on price movement within mechanically defined segments. By removing external influences such as sentiment, time intervals, or market sessions, the indicator offers an unbiased lens through which traders can observe price dynamics.
Non-psychology, as defined here, refers to an approach that excludes behavioral and emotional patterns—like fear, greed, or herd mentality—from price analysis. Traditional tools often depend on these patterns to identify zones such as pivots or Fibonacci retracements, but these methods can be inconsistent in volatile markets. In contrast, the Non-Psychological Levels indicator focuses entirely on what price is doing, free from assumptions about trader behavior or external time constraints.
The indicator’s time-agnostic and mechanically driven design segments price action into consistent ranges, highlighting "Broken" levels (where price breaches structural boundaries) and "Unbroken" levels (where price holds). These structural zones remain unaffected by subjective or external influences, ensuring clarity and consistency across different markets and timeframes. By doing so, the indicator reveals a pure view of price structure, independent of psychological biases.
Importantly, the Non-Psychological Levels indicator is not intended to replace psychology-based tools but to complement them. When its structural levels align with psychological zones like round numbers or session highs/lows, the significance of these areas is reinforced. Conversely, when the levels differ, the contrast provides traders with alternative insights into market dynamics. This dual perspective—blending mechanical objectivity with behavioral analysis—enhances the depth and flexibility of market evaluation.
The following principles outline the theoretical foundation of the indicator and its unique contribution to structural price analysis:
Time-Agnostic Design : The indicator avoids reliance on time-based factors like daily opens, session intervals, or specific events. Instead, it segments price action using bar indexes, ensuring that structural levels are identified independently of external time variables. While the x-axis of a chart inherently represents time, this indicator abstracts away its influence, allowing traders to focus purely on price movement without the bias of temporal context.
Mechanical and Neutral Framework : Every calculation within the indicator is predetermined by a set of mechanical rules, ensuring no subjective input or interpretation affects the results. This objectivity guarantees that levels are derived solely from observed price behavior, providing a reliable framework that traders can trust to remain consistent across different assets, timeframes, and market conditions.
Broken and Unbroken Levels : Broken levels represent zones where price has breached a structural boundary, while Unbroken levels highlight areas where price has consistently respected its range. This distinction provides a clear and systematic method for identifying key support and resistance levels, offering insights into where future price interactions are most likely to occur.
Neutral Price Behavior : By dividing price action into equal segments, the indicator removes the influence of external factors like trader sentiment or psychological expectations. Each segment independently determines significant levels based purely on price action, enabling a structural view of the market that abstracts away behavioral or emotional biases.
Complement to Psychological Tools : While the indicator itself avoids behavioral assumptions, its levels can align with psychological zones like round numbers, pivots, or Fibonacci levels. When these structural and psychological levels overlap, it reinforces the importance of key areas, while divergences offer opportunities to examine price behavior from a new perspective.
Educational Value : The indicator encourages traders to explore the contrast between structural and psychological analysis. By introducing a framework that isolates price behavior from external influences, it challenges traditional methods of technical analysis, fostering deeper insights into market structure and behavior.
🔍 UNDERSTANDING STRUCTURAL LEVELS 🔍
The Non-Psychological Levels indicator offers a straightforward yet powerful way to understand market structure by segmenting price action into mechanically defined ranges. This segmentation highlights two key elements: "Broken" levels, where price has breached structural boundaries, and "Unbroken" levels, which remain intact and respected by price action. Together, these components create a framework for identifying potential areas of support and resistance.
Broken Levels : These are structural boundaries that price has surpassed, indicating areas where previous support or resistance failed. Broken levels often signal transitions in price behavior, such as shifts in momentum or the start of trending movements. They provide insight into zones where price has already tested and moved beyond.
Unbroken Levels : These levels remain intact within a given price segment, marking areas where price has consistently respected boundaries. Unbroken levels are particularly useful for identifying potential reversal points or zones of continued support or resistance. Their persistence across price action often makes them reliable indicators of market structure.
The visual segmentation of price action into distinct ranges allows traders to observe how price transitions between structural zones. For example:
- Clusters of Unbroken levels near the current price may suggest strong support or resistance, offering areas of interest for reversals or breakouts.
- Gaps between Unbroken levels highlight areas of price inefficiency or low interaction, which may become significant if revisited.
By focusing solely on structural price behavior, the Non-Psychological Levels indicator enables traders to analyze price independently of time or psychological factors. This makes it a valuable tool for understanding price dynamics objectively, whether used on its own or alongside other indicators.
🛠️ SETTINGS 🛠️
The Non-Psychological Levels indicator offers various customizable settings to help users tailor its visualization to their specific trading style and market conditions. These settings allow adjustments to sensitivity, level projection, and the source of price calculations (e.g., wicks or closing prices). Below, we outline each setting and its impact on the chart, along with examples to illustrate their functionality.
Custom Settings
Sensitivity : This setting adjusts the balance between detailed and broader structural levels by controlling the number of segments. Higher values result in more segments, revealing finer price levels, while lower values consolidate segments to highlight major price movements.
Source : Allows the user to choose between 'Wick' or 'Close' for detecting levels. Selecting 'Wick' emphasizes the absolute highs and lows of price action, while 'Close' focuses on closing prices within each segment.
Level Labels : Configures the visual representation of price levels, allowing users to toggle between price values, symbols (▲ ▼), or disabling labels altogether. This setting ensures clarity in how Broken and Unbroken levels are displayed on the chart.
Unbroken Levels : - - - Users can customize the colors and label styles for Unbroken levels, which highlight areas where price has respected structural boundaries.
Broken Levels : -|- Similar to Unbroken levels, users can specify the visual appearance of Broken levels, including color customization for Broken highs and lows. These settings help distinguish areas where price has breached a structural boundary.
Projection Options : This setting allows users to control how broken and unbroken levels are visually extended on the chart. The Future option projects lines forward to the right of the current price, showing potential future relevance of levels. The All option extends lines both forward and backward, providing a comprehensive view of how levels align with historical and potential future price action. The None option disables projections, keeping the chart focused solely on current segment levels without any extensions.
Segments : Includes options for customizing the segment visualization:
- Live Segment : Toggles the display of a highlighted box representing the current developing segment, helping users focus on ongoing price action.
- Boxes : Allows users to display filled boxes around each segment for additional visual emphasis.
- Segment Colors : Users can define separate colors for support (lower) and resistance (upper) segments, making it easier to interpret directional trends.
- Boundaries : Enables or disables vertical lines to mark segment boundaries, providing a clearer view of structural divisions.
Repaint : This setting allows users to enable or disable triangle labels within the live segment. When enabled, the triangles dynamically update to reflect real-time price behavior during the live bar but will repaint until the bar is fully confirmed. Disabling this option prevents the triangles from appearing during the live bar, reducing potential confusion as they may otherwise flash on and off during price updates. This setting ensures users can choose their preferred visualization while maintaining clarity in real-time analysis.
Color Settings : Offers extensive customization for all visual elements, including Broken and Unbroken levels, segment boundaries, and live segments. These settings ensure the indicator can adapt to individual preferences for chart readability.
🖼️ CHART EXAMPLES 🖼️
The following chart examples illustrate different configurations and features of the Non-Psychological Levels indicator. These examples highlight how the indicator’s settings influence the visualization of structural price behavior, helping traders understand its functionality in various scenarios.
Broken and Unbroken Levels : Orange prices are Broken HIghs. Blue prices are Broken Lows. Green and Red are Unbroken.
Boundaries : Enable Boundaries to visualize segments.
High Sensitivity Setting : A high sensitivity setting produces fewer segments and levels, emphasizing broader price ranges and major structural zones. This configuration is better suited for higher timeframes or identifying overarching trends.
Low Sensitivity Setting : A low sensitivity setting results in a greater number of segments and levels, offering a granular view of price structure. This configuration is ideal for analyzing detailed price movements on lower timeframes.
Live Segment with Triangles Enabled : This example shows the live segment box with triangle labels enabled. These triangles update dynamically during the live bar but may repaint until the bar is confirmed, helping traders observe real-time price behavior.
Broken and Unbroken Levels : This example highlights Broken levels (where price has breached structural boundaries and are drawn through subsequent price action) and Unbroken levels (where price has respected structural boundaries). These distinctions visually identify areas of potential support and resistance.
Broken and Unbroken Levels with Projection: All : This example demonstrates the "Project All" feature, where broken and unbroken levels are extended both forward and backward on the chart. This visualization highlights historical and potential future support and resistance zones, helping traders better understand how price interacts with these structural levels over time.
Segment Boxes with Boundaries : Filled boxes around individual segments visually distinguish each price interval, offering clarity in observing structural price transitions.
📊 SUMMARY 📊
The Non-Psychological Levels indicator provides a unique framework for analyzing structural price behavior through the identification of Broken and Unbroken levels. These levels act as a mechanical representation of support and resistance, independent of psychological biases or time-based factors. By focusing purely on price movement within defined segments, the indicator offers a neutral and consistent approach to understanding market dynamics.
This method complements traditional tools by providing an unbiased perspective. When structural levels align with psychological zones—such as round numbers or session-based highs and lows—they reinforce the significance of these areas as key price zones. When they diverge, the indicator introduces an alternative view, prompting further exploration of price behavior. This dual perspective enhances the depth of analysis by combining the mechanical and behavioral aspects of price action.
The Non-Psychological Levels indicator is not designed to generate trading signals or predict future price movements but serves as a visual and educational tool. Its adaptability across all markets and timeframes allows traders to integrate it into their broader strategies. By highlighting structural price dynamics, the indicator offers a fresh perspective on market analysis while remaining compatible with other technical tools.
⚙️ COMPATIBILITY AND LIMITATIONS ⚙️
Asset Compatibility :
The Non-Psychological Levels indicator is compatible with all asset classes, including cryptocurrencies, forex, stocks, and commodities. It can be applied to any chart or timeframe, making it a flexible tool for structural price analysis. Users should adjust the Sensitivity setting to ensure the segmentation aligns with the price behavior of the specific asset being analyzed. For instance, higher sensitivity values are more suitable for assets with large price ranges, while lower values work well for assets with tighter ranges.
Visual Range Dependency :
The indicator is optimized to perform calculations only within the visible range of the chart. This is a significant advantage, as it prevents unnecessary calculations and maintains efficient performance. However, because of this dependency, levels may appear to "recalculate" when the chart is zoomed in or out quickly or shifted abruptly. While this does not affect the integrity of the levels, it may cause a temporary lag as the indicator adjusts to the new visual range.
Persistence of Levels Beyond Visibility :
Even if levels are not visible on the chart due to zoom or scroll settings, they still exist in the background and are recalculated when revisited. This ensures that the structural price analysis remains consistent, regardless of the chart view.
Box Limitations in Pine Script :
The indicator is subject to Pine Script's inherent limitation of 500 boxes. This means that no more than 500 segments or level boxes can be drawn on the chart simultaneously. For most configurations, this limitation is mitigated by focusing on the visual range, but users employing very low sensitivity settings may exceed the limit. In such cases, only the most recent 500 boxes will be displayed, potentially omitting earlier segments.
Lag with Low Sensitivity Settings :
When sensitivity is set to a low value, the indicator creates many more segments, resulting in finer granularity and a higher number of boxes. While this provides detailed structural levels, it may increase the likelihood of exceeding Pine Script’s 500-box limit or cause a temporary lag when rendering a dense set of boxes over a wide visual range. Users should adjust sensitivity to balance detail with performance, especially on assets with high volatility or broad price ranges.
Live Segment Caution :
The live segment box updates in real time to reflect price movements as the segment is still developing. Since the segment high and segment low are not yet finalized, users should interpret this feature as a dynamic visualization of current price behavior rather than a definitive structural analysis. This ensures clarity during ongoing price action while maintaining the integrity of the indicator's framework.
Cross-Market Versatility :
The indicator’s time-agnostic and mechanical design ensures that it functions identically across all markets and timeframes. However, users should consider the unique characteristics of different markets when interpreting the results, as certain assets (e.g., highly volatile cryptocurrencies) may require sensitivity adjustments for optimal segmentation.
Visual Range Dependency: Levels recalculate efficiently within the chart's visible range but may lag temporarily when zooming or scrolling quickly.
These considerations ensure that the Non-Psychological Levels indicator remains robust and versatile while highlighting some inherent limitations of Pine Script and real-time recalculations. Users can mitigate these constraints by carefully adjusting sensitivity and understanding how the visual range dependency affects performance.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER ⚠️
The Non-Psychological Levels indicator is a visual analysis tool and is not designed as a predictive or trading signal indicator. Its primary purpose is to highlight structural price levels, providing an objective framework for understanding support and resistance within mechanically segmented price action.
The indicator operates within the visible range of the chart to ensure efficiency and adaptiveness, but this recalculation should not be interpreted as a forecast of future price behavior. While the structural levels may align with significant price zones in hindsight, they are purely a reflection of observed price dynamics and should not be used as standalone trading signals.
This indicator is intended as an educational and visual aid to complement other analysis methods. Users are encouraged to integrate it into a broader trading strategy and make adjustments to the settings based on their individual needs and market conditions.
🧠 BEYOND THE CODE 🧠
The Non-Psychological Levels indicator, like other xxattaxx indicators , is designed with education and community collaboration in mind. Its open-source nature encourages exploration, experimentation, and the development of new approaches to price analysis. By focusing on structural price behavior rather than psychological or time-based factors, this indicator introduces a fresh perspective for users to study.
Beyond its visual utility, the indicator serves as an educational framework for understanding the concept of non-psychological analysis. It offers traders an opportunity to explore price dynamics in a purely mechanical way, challenging conventional methods and fostering deeper insights into structural behavior. This approach is especially valuable for those interested in exploring new concepts or seeking alternative perspectives on market analysis.
Your comments, suggestions, and discussions are invaluable in shaping the future of this project. We actively encourage your feedback and contributions, which will directly help us refine and improve the Non-Psychological Levels indicator. We look forward to seeing the creative ways in which you use and enhance this tool. MVS
BAERMThe Bitcoin Auto-correlation Exchange Rate Model: A Novel Two Step Approach
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. THIS ARTICLE IS FOR EDUCATIONAL AND ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY.
If you enjoy this software and information, please consider contributing to my lightning address
Prelude
It has been previously established that the Bitcoin daily USD exchange rate series is extremely auto-correlated
In this article, we will utilise this fact to build a model for Bitcoin/USD exchange rate. But not a model for predicting the exchange rate, but rather a model to understand the fundamental reasons for the Bitcoin to have this exchange rate to begin with.
This is a model of sound money, scarcity and subjective value.
Introduction
Bitcoin, a decentralised peer to peer digital value exchange network, has experienced significant exchange rate fluctuations since its inception in 2009. In this article, we explore a two-step model that reasonably accurately captures both the fundamental drivers of Bitcoin’s value and the cyclical patterns of bull and bear markets. This model, whilst it can produce forecasts, is meant more of a way of understanding past exchange rate changes and understanding the fundamental values driving the ever increasing exchange rate. The forecasts from the model are to be considered inconclusive and speculative only.
Data preparation
To develop the BAERM, we used historical Bitcoin data from Coin Metrics, a leading provider of Bitcoin market data. The dataset includes daily USD exchange rates, block counts, and other relevant information. We pre-processed the data by performing the following steps:
Fixing date formats and setting the dataset’s time index
Generating cumulative sums for blocks and halving periods
Calculating daily rewards and total supply
Computing the log-transformed price
Step 1: Building the Base Model
To build the base model, we analysed data from the first two epochs (time periods between Bitcoin mining reward halvings) and regressed the logarithm of Bitcoin’s exchange rate on the mining reward and epoch. This base model captures the fundamental relationship between Bitcoin’s exchange rate, mining reward, and halving epoch.
where Yt represents the exchange rate at day t, Epochk is the kth epoch (for that t), and epsilont is the error term. The coefficients beta0, beta1, and beta2 are estimated using ordinary least squares regression.
Base Model Regression
We use ordinary least squares regression to estimate the coefficients for the betas in figure 2. In order to reduce the possibility of over-fitting and ensure there is sufficient out of sample for testing accuracy, the base model is only trained on the first two epochs. You will notice in the code we calculate the beta2 variable prior and call it “phaseplus”.
The code below shows the regression for the base model coefficients:
\# Run the regression
mask = df\ < 2 # we only want to use Epoch's 0 and 1 to estimate the coefficients for the base model
reg\_X = df.loc\ [mask, \ \].shift(1).iloc\
reg\_y = df.loc\ .iloc\
reg\_X = sm.add\_constant(reg\_X)
ols = sm.OLS(reg\_y, reg\_X).fit()
coefs = ols.params.values
print(coefs)
The result of this regression gives us the coefficients for the betas of the base model:
\
or in more human readable form: 0.029, 0.996869586, -0.00043. NB that for the auto-correlation/momentum beta, we did NOT round the significant figures at all. Since the momentum is so important in this model, we must use all available significant figures.
Fundamental Insights from the Base Model
Momentum effect: The term 0.997 Y suggests that the exchange rate of Bitcoin on a given day (Yi) is heavily influenced by the exchange rate on the previous day. This indicates a momentum effect, where the price of Bitcoin tends to follow its recent trend.
Momentum effect is a phenomenon observed in various financial markets, including stocks and other commodities. It implies that an asset’s price is more likely to continue moving in its current direction, either upwards or downwards, over the short term.
The momentum effect can be driven by several factors:
Behavioural biases: Investors may exhibit herding behaviour or be subject to cognitive biases such as confirmation bias, which could lead them to buy or sell assets based on recent trends, reinforcing the momentum.
Positive feedback loops: As more investors notice a trend and act on it, the trend may gain even more traction, leading to a self-reinforcing positive feedback loop. This can cause prices to continue moving in the same direction, further amplifying the momentum effect.
Technical analysis: Many traders use technical analysis to make investment decisions, which often involves studying historical exchange rate trends and chart patterns to predict future exchange rate movements. When a large number of traders follow similar strategies, their collective actions can create and reinforce exchange rate momentum.
Impact of halving events: In the Bitcoin network, new bitcoins are created as a reward to miners for validating transactions and adding new blocks to the blockchain. This reward is called the block reward, and it is halved approximately every four years, or every 210,000 blocks. This event is known as a halving.
The primary purpose of halving events is to control the supply of new bitcoins entering the market, ultimately leading to a capped supply of 21 million bitcoins. As the block reward decreases, the rate at which new bitcoins are created slows down, and this can have significant implications for the price of Bitcoin.
The term -0.0004*(50/(2^epochk) — (epochk+1)²) accounts for the impact of the halving events on the Bitcoin exchange rate. The model seems to suggest that the exchange rate of Bitcoin is influenced by a function of the number of halving events that have occurred.
Exponential decay and the decreasing impact of the halvings: The first part of this term, 50/(2^epochk), indicates that the impact of each subsequent halving event decays exponentially, implying that the influence of halving events on the Bitcoin exchange rate diminishes over time. This might be due to the decreasing marginal effect of each halving event on the overall Bitcoin supply as the block reward gets smaller and smaller.
This is antithetical to the wrong and popular stock to flow model, which suggests the opposite. Given the accuracy of the BAERM, this is yet another reason to question the S2F model, from a fundamental perspective.
The second part of the term, (epochk+1)², introduces a non-linear relationship between the halving events and the exchange rate. This non-linear aspect could reflect that the impact of halving events is not constant over time and may be influenced by various factors such as market dynamics, speculation, and changing market conditions.
The combination of these two terms is expressed by the graph of the model line (see figure 3), where it can be seen the step from each halving is decaying, and the step up from each halving event is given by a parabolic curve.
NB - The base model has been trained on the first two halving epochs and then seeded (i.e. the first lag point) with the oldest data available.
Constant term: The constant term 0.03 in the equation represents an inherent baseline level of growth in the Bitcoin exchange rate.
In any linear or linear-like model, the constant term, also known as the intercept or bias, represents the value of the dependent variable (in this case, the log-scaled Bitcoin USD exchange rate) when all the independent variables are set to zero.
The constant term indicates that even without considering the effects of the previous day’s exchange rate or halving events, there is a baseline growth in the exchange rate of Bitcoin. This baseline growth could be due to factors such as the network’s overall growth or increasing adoption, or changes in the market structure (more exchanges, changes to the regulatory environment, improved liquidity, more fiat on-ramps etc).
Base Model Regression Diagnostics
Below is a summary of the model generated by the OLS function
OLS Regression Results
\==============================================================================
Dep. Variable: logprice R-squared: 0.999
Model: OLS Adj. R-squared: 0.999
Method: Least Squares F-statistic: 2.041e+06
Date: Fri, 28 Apr 2023 Prob (F-statistic): 0.00
Time: 11:06:58 Log-Likelihood: 3001.6
No. Observations: 2182 AIC: -5997.
Df Residuals: 2179 BIC: -5980.
Df Model: 2
Covariance Type: nonrobust
\==============================================================================
coef std err t P>|t| \
\------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const 0.0292 0.009 3.081 0.002 0.011 0.048
logprice 0.9969 0.001 1012.724 0.000 0.995 0.999
phaseplus -0.0004 0.000 -2.239 0.025 -0.001 -5.3e-05
\==============================================================================
Omnibus: 674.771 Durbin-Watson: 1.901
Prob(Omnibus): 0.000 Jarque-Bera (JB): 24937.353
Skew: -0.765 Prob(JB): 0.00
Kurtosis: 19.491 Cond. No. 255.
\==============================================================================
Below we see some regression diagnostics along with the regression itself.
Diagnostics: We can see that the residuals are looking a little skewed and there is some heteroskedasticity within the residuals. The coefficient of determination, or r2 is very high, but that is to be expected given the momentum term. A better r2 is manually calculated by the sum square of the difference of the model to the untrained data. This can be achieved by the following code:
\# Calculate the out-of-sample R-squared
oos\_mask = df\ >= 2
oos\_actual = df.loc\
oos\_predicted = df.loc\
residuals\_oos = oos\_actual - oos\_predicted
SSR = np.sum(residuals\_oos \*\* 2)
SST = np.sum((oos\_actual - oos\_actual.mean()) \*\* 2)
R2\_oos = 1 - SSR/SST
print("Out-of-sample R-squared:", R2\_oos)
The result is: 0.84, which indicates a very close fit to the out of sample data for the base model, which goes some way to proving our fundamental assumption around subjective value and sound money to be accurate.
Step 2: Adding the Damping Function
Next, we incorporated a damping function to capture the cyclical nature of bull and bear markets. The optimal parameters for the damping function were determined by regressing on the residuals from the base model. The damping function enhances the model’s ability to identify and predict bull and bear cycles in the Bitcoin market. The addition of the damping function to the base model is expressed as the full model equation.
This brings me to the question — why? Why add the damping function to the base model, which is arguably already performing extremely well out of sample and providing valuable insights into the exchange rate movements of Bitcoin.
Fundamental reasoning behind the addition of a damping function:
Subjective Theory of Value: The cyclical component of the damping function, represented by the cosine function, can be thought of as capturing the periodic fluctuations in market sentiment. These fluctuations may arise from various factors, such as changes in investor risk appetite, macroeconomic conditions, or technological advancements. Mathematically, the cyclical component represents the frequency of these fluctuations, while the phase shift (α and β) allows for adjustments in the alignment of these cycles with historical data. This flexibility enables the damping function to account for the heterogeneity in market participants’ preferences and expectations, which is a key aspect of the subjective theory of value.
Time Preference and Market Cycles: The exponential decay component of the damping function, represented by the term e^(-0.0004t), can be linked to the concept of time preference and its impact on market dynamics. In financial markets, the discounting of future cash flows is a common practice, reflecting the time value of money and the inherent uncertainty of future events. The exponential decay in the damping function serves a similar purpose, diminishing the influence of past market cycles as time progresses. This decay term introduces a time-dependent weight to the cyclical component, capturing the dynamic nature of the Bitcoin market and the changing relevance of past events.
Interactions between Cyclical and Exponential Decay Components: The interplay between the cyclical and exponential decay components in the damping function captures the complex dynamics of the Bitcoin market. The damping function effectively models the attenuation of past cycles while also accounting for their periodic nature. This allows the model to adapt to changing market conditions and to provide accurate predictions even in the face of significant volatility or structural shifts.
Now we have the fundamental reasoning for the addition of the function, we can explore the actual implementation and look to other analogies for guidance —
Financial and physical analogies to the damping function:
Mathematical Aspects: The exponential decay component, e^(-0.0004t), attenuates the amplitude of the cyclical component over time. This attenuation factor is crucial in modelling the diminishing influence of past market cycles. The cyclical component, represented by the cosine function, accounts for the periodic nature of market cycles, with α determining the frequency of these cycles and β representing the phase shift. The constant term (+3) ensures that the function remains positive, which is important for practical applications, as the damping function is added to the rest of the model to obtain the final predictions.
Analogies to Existing Damping Functions: The damping function in the BAERM is similar to damped harmonic oscillators found in physics. In a damped harmonic oscillator, an object in motion experiences a restoring force proportional to its displacement from equilibrium and a damping force proportional to its velocity. The equation of motion for a damped harmonic oscillator is:
x’’(t) + 2γx’(t) + ω₀²x(t) = 0
where x(t) is the displacement, ω₀ is the natural frequency, and γ is the damping coefficient. The damping function in the BAERM shares similarities with the solution to this equation, which is typically a product of an exponential decay term and a sinusoidal term. The exponential decay term in the BAERM captures the attenuation of past market cycles, while the cosine term represents the periodic nature of these cycles.
Comparisons with Financial Models: In finance, damped oscillatory models have been applied to model interest rates, stock prices, and exchange rates. The famous Black-Scholes option pricing model, for instance, assumes that stock prices follow a geometric Brownian motion, which can exhibit oscillatory behavior under certain conditions. In fixed income markets, the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model for interest rates also incorporates mean reversion and stochastic volatility, leading to damped oscillatory dynamics.
By drawing on these analogies, we can better understand the technical aspects of the damping function in the BAERM and appreciate its effectiveness in modelling the complex dynamics of the Bitcoin market. The damping function captures both the periodic nature of market cycles and the attenuation of past events’ influence.
Conclusion
In this article, we explored the Bitcoin Auto-correlation Exchange Rate Model (BAERM), a novel 2-step linear regression model for understanding the Bitcoin USD exchange rate. We discussed the model’s components, their interpretations, and the fundamental insights they provide about Bitcoin exchange rate dynamics.
The BAERM’s ability to capture the fundamental properties of Bitcoin is particularly interesting. The framework underlying the model emphasises the importance of individuals’ subjective valuations and preferences in determining prices. The momentum term, which accounts for auto-correlation, is a testament to this idea, as it shows that historical price trends influence market participants’ expectations and valuations. This observation is consistent with the notion that the price of Bitcoin is determined by individuals’ preferences based on past information.
Furthermore, the BAERM incorporates the impact of Bitcoin’s supply dynamics on its price through the halving epoch terms. By acknowledging the significance of supply-side factors, the model reflects the principles of sound money. A limited supply of money, such as that of Bitcoin, maintains its value and purchasing power over time. The halving events, which reduce the block reward, play a crucial role in making Bitcoin increasingly scarce, thus reinforcing its attractiveness as a store of value and a medium of exchange.
The constant term in the model serves as the baseline for the model’s predictions and can be interpreted as an inherent value attributed to Bitcoin. This value emphasizes the significance of the underlying technology, network effects, and Bitcoin’s role as a medium of exchange, store of value, and unit of account. These aspects are all essential for a sound form of money, and the model’s ability to account for them further showcases its strength in capturing the fundamental properties of Bitcoin.
The BAERM offers a potential robust and well-founded methodology for understanding the Bitcoin USD exchange rate, taking into account the key factors that drive it from both supply and demand perspectives.
In conclusion, the Bitcoin Auto-correlation Exchange Rate Model provides a comprehensive fundamentally grounded and hopefully useful framework for understanding the Bitcoin USD exchange rate.
PivotLibrary "Pivot"
This library helps you store and manage pivots.
bias(isHigh, isHigher, prevWasHigher)
Helper function to calculate bias.
Parameters:
isHigh (bool) : (bool) Wether the pivot is a pivot high or not.
isHigher (bool) : (bool) Wether the pivot is a higher pivot or not.
@return (bool) The bias (true = bullish, false = bearish, na = neutral).
prevWasHigher (bool)
biasToString(bias)
Parameters:
bias (bool)
biasToColor(bias, theme)
Parameters:
bias (bool)
theme (Theme)
nameString(isHigh, isHigher)
Parameters:
isHigh (bool)
isHigher (bool)
abbrString(isHigh, isHigher)
Parameters:
isHigh (bool)
isHigher (bool)
tooltipString(y, isHigh, isHigher, bias, theme)
Parameters:
y (float)
isHigh (bool)
isHigher (bool)
bias (bool)
theme (Theme)
createLabel(x, y, isHigh, isHigher, prevWasHigher, settings)
Parameters:
x (int)
y (float)
isHigh (bool)
isHigher (bool)
prevWasHigher (bool)
settings (Settings)
new(x, y, isHigh, isHigher, settings)
Parameters:
x (int)
y (float)
isHigh (bool)
isHigher (bool)
settings (Settings)
newArray(size, initialValue)
Parameters:
size (int)
initialValue (Pivot)
method getFirst(this)
Namespace types: Pivot
Parameters:
this (Pivot )
method getLast(this, isHigh)
Namespace types: Pivot
Parameters:
this (Pivot )
isHigh (bool)
method getLastHigh(this)
Namespace types: Pivot
Parameters:
this (Pivot )
method getLastLow(this)
Namespace types: Pivot
Parameters:
this (Pivot )
method getPrev(this, numBack, isHigh)
Namespace types: Pivot
Parameters:
this (Pivot )
numBack (int)
isHigh (bool)
method getPrevHigh(this, numBack)
Namespace types: Pivot
Parameters:
this (Pivot )
numBack (int)
method getPrevLow(this, numBack)
Namespace types: Pivot
Parameters:
this (Pivot )
numBack (int)
method getText(this)
Namespace types: Pivot
Parameters:
this (Pivot)
method setX(this, value)
Namespace types: Pivot
Parameters:
this (Pivot)
value (int)
method setY(this, value)
Namespace types: Pivot
Parameters:
this (Pivot)
value (float)
method setXY(this, x, y)
Namespace types: Pivot
Parameters:
this (Pivot)
x (int)
y (float)
method setBias(this, value)
Namespace types: Pivot
Parameters:
this (Pivot)
value (int)
method setColor(this, value)
Namespace types: Pivot
Parameters:
this (Pivot)
value (color)
method setText(this, value)
Namespace types: Pivot
Parameters:
this (Pivot)
value (string)
method add(this, pivot)
Namespace types: Pivot
Parameters:
this (Pivot )
pivot (Pivot)
method updateLast(this, y, settings)
Namespace types: Pivot
Parameters:
this (Pivot )
y (float)
settings (Settings)
method update(this, y, isHigh, settings)
Namespace types: Pivot
Parameters:
this (Pivot )
y (float)
isHigh (bool)
settings (Settings)
Pivot
Stores Pivot data.
Fields:
x (series int)
y (series float)
isHigh (series bool)
isHigher (series bool)
bias (series bool)
lb (series label)
Theme
Attributes for customizable look and feel.
Fields:
size (series string)
colorDefault (series color)
colorNeutral (series color)
colorBullish (series color)
colorBearish (series color)
colored (series bool)
showTooltips (series bool)
showTooltipName (series bool)
showTooltipValue (series bool)
showTooltipBias (series bool)
Settings
All settings for the pivot.
Fields:
theme (Theme)
Stacey Burke Signal Day LTE“Previously published as ‘Day Zero Fakeout Detector MTF’”
Stacey Burke Signal Day LTE
Automatic detection of Day Zero, Inside Days, and Outside Days for Stacey Burke’s intraday playbook
🔎 Stacey Burke’s Signal Days
This indicator highlights the key daily patterns that often lead to high-probability intraday setups in Stacey Burke’s methodology:
1️⃣ Day Zero
The reset days within a 3-day cycle (e.g. breakout → continuation → exhaustion/reversal).
Can mark the beginning of a new directional phase.
Trades back inside the prior range after a Peak Formation High (PFH) or Peak Formation Low (PFL).
Bias: Look for measured parabolic session moves. When combined with trend following indicators, these signal days can be very powerful.
2️⃣ Inside Day
A day where the entire range is contained within the prior day’s range.
Signals consolidation and energy build-up.
Often leads to explosive breakouts in the next session.
Bias: Trade breakouts of the inside day’s high/low or breakout reversal in the session at key timings in the direction of higher timeframe bias. When combined with trend following indicators, these signal days can be very powerful.
3️⃣ Outside Day (Engulfing Day)
`
A day where the range is larger than the prior day’s range, engulfing both high and low.
Marks trapped traders and fakeouts on both sides.
Often precedes strong continuations or sharp reversals from outside of the ranges.
Bias: Align trades with the true continuation move. When combined with trend following indicators, these signal days can be very powerful.
📌 How They Work Together
Day Zero → Signals the new cycle after PFH/PFL.
Inside Day → Signals compression → expect breakout setups.
Outside Day → Signals exhaustion/fakeouts → expect reversals or continuations.
Together, they give traders a clear daily roadmap for where liquidity sits and when to expect the highest-probability setups.
✅ Example in Practice
Market rallies for 3 days → PFH forms → Day Zero short bias.
Next day prints an Inside Day → watch for breakout continuation short, and breakout reversals.
Later, an Outside Day traps both longs and shorts → the following session offers a clean intraday reversal or continuation trade in line with the underlying MTF trend/bias.
⚙️ Features of This Indicator
Automatic detection of Day Zero, Inside Days, and Outside Days
Multi-Timeframe (MTF) support for cycle alignment
Visual markers for PFH/PFL and consolidation zones
Measured move projections for breakout targets
👉 Stacey Burke Signal Day LTE gives traders just a few of the most important signal days — Day Zero, Inside Day, and Outside Day — to structure their intraday trades around fake outs, breakouts, and reversals within the daily cycles of the week. (This is work in progress: Next up, FRD/FGD's, 3-day cycle detecting, 3DLs, 3DSs).
Meta-LR ForecastThis indicator builds a forward-looking projection from the current bar by combining twelve time-compressed “mini forecasts.” Each forecast is a linear-regression-based outlook whose contribution is adaptively scaled by trend strength (via ADX) and normalized to each timeframe’s own volatility (via that timeframe’s ATR). The result is a 12-segment polyline that starts at the current price and extends one bar at a time into the future (1× through 12× the chart’s timeframe). Alongside the plotted path, the script computes two summary measures:
* Per-TF Bias% — a directional efficiency × R² score for each micro-forecast, expressed as a percent.
* Meta Bias% — the same score, but applied to the final, accumulated 12-step path. It summarizes how coherent and directional the combined projection is.
This tool is an indicator, not a strategy. It does not place orders. Nothing here is trade advice; it is a visual, quantitative framework to help you assess directional bias and trend context across a ladder of timeframe multiples.
The core engine fits a simple least-squares line on a normalized price series for each small forecast horizon and extrapolates one bar forward. That “trend” forecast is paired with its mirror, an “anti-trend” forecast, constructed around the current normalized price. The model then blends between these two wings according to current trend strength as measured by ADX.
ADX is transformed into a weight (w) in using an adaptive band centered on the rolling mean (μ) with width derived from the standard deviation (σ) of ADX over a configurable lookback. When ADX is deeply below the lower band, the weight approaches -1, favoring anti-trend behavior. Inside the flat band, the weight is near zero, producing neutral behavior. Clearly above the upper band, the weight approaches +1, favoring a trend-following stance. The transitions between these regions are linear so the regime shift is smooth rather than abrupt.
You can shape how quickly the model commits to either wing using two exponents. One exponent controls how aggressively positive weights lean into the trend forecast; the other controls how aggressively negative weights lean into the anti-trend forecast. Raising these exponents makes the response more gradual; lowering them makes the shift more decisive. An optional switch can force full anti-trend behavior when ADX registers a deep-low condition far below the lower tail, if you prefer a categorical stance in very flat markets.
A key design choice is volatility normalization. Every micro-forecast is computed in ATR units of its own timeframe. The script fetches that timeframe’s ATR inside each security call and converts normalized outputs back to price with that exact ATR. This avoids scaling higher-timeframe effects by the chart ATR or by square-root time approximations. Using “ATR-true” for each timeframe keeps the cross-timeframe accumulation consistent and dimensionally correct.
Bias% is defined as directional efficiency multiplied by R², expressed as a percent. Directional efficiency captures how much net progress occurred relative to the total path length; R² captures how well the path aligns with a straight line. If price meanders without net progress, efficiency drops; if the variation is well-explained by a line, R² rises. Multiplying the two penalizes choppy, low-signal paths and rewards sustained, coherent motion.
The forward path is built by converting each per-timeframe Bias% into a small ATR-sized delta, then cumulatively adding those deltas to form a 12-step projection. This produces a polyline anchored at the current close and stepping forward one bar per timeframe multiple. Segment color flips by slope, allowing a quick read of the path’s direction and inflection.
Inputs you can tune include:
* Max Regression Length. Upper bound for each micro-forecast’s regression window. Larger values smooth the trend estimate at the cost of responsiveness; smaller values react faster but can add noise.
* Price Source. The price series analyzed (for example, close or typical price).
* ADX Length. Period used for the DMI/ADX calculation.
* ATR Length (normalization). Window used for ATR; this is applied per timeframe inside each security call.
* Band Lookback (for μ, σ). Lookback used to compute the adaptive ADX band statistics. Larger values stabilize the band; smaller values react more quickly.
* Flat half-width (σ). Width of the neutral band on both sides of μ. Wider flats spend more time neutral; narrower flats switch regimes more readily.
* Tail width beyond flat (σ). Distance from the flat band edge to the extreme trend/anti-trend zone. Larger tails create a longer ramp; smaller tails reach extremes sooner.
* Polyline Width. Visual thickness of the plotted segments.
* Negative Wing Aggression (anti-trend). Exponent shaping for negative weights; higher values soften the tilt into mean reversion.
* Positive Wing Aggression (trend). Exponent shaping for positive weights; lower values make trend commitment stronger and sooner.
* Force FULL Anti-Trend at Deep-Low ADX. Optional hard switch for extremely low ADX conditions.
On the chart you will see:
* A 12-segment forward polyline starting from the current close to bar\_index + 1 … +12, with green segments for up-steps and red for down-steps.
* A small label at the latest bar showing Meta Bias% when available, or “n/a” when insufficient data exists.
Interpreting the readouts:
* Trend-following contexts are characterized by ADX above the adaptive upper band, pushing w toward +1. The blended forecast leans toward the regression extrapolation. A strongly positive Meta Bias% in this environment suggests directional alignment across the ladder of timeframes.
* Mean-reversion contexts occur when ADX is well below the lower tail, pushing w toward -1 (or forcing anti-trend if enabled). After a sharp advance, a negative Meta Bias% may indicate the model projects pullback tendencies.
* Neutral contexts occur when ADX sits inside the flat band; w is near zero, the blended forecast remains close to current price, and Meta Bias% tends to hover near zero.
These are analytical cues, not rules. Always corroborate with your broader process, including market structure, time-of-day behavior, liquidity conditions, and risk limits.
Practical usage patterns include:
* Momentum confirmation. Combine a rising Meta Bias% with higher-timeframe structure (such as higher highs and higher lows) to validate continuation setups. Treat the 12th step’s distance as a coarse sense of potential room rather than as a target.
* Fade filtering. If you prefer fading extremes, require ADX to be near or below the lower ramp before acting on counter-moves, and avoid fades when ADX is decisively above the upper band.
* Position planning. Because per-step deltas are ATR-scaled, the path’s vertical extent can be mentally mapped to typical noise for the instrument, informing stop distance choices. The script itself does not compute orders or size.
* Multi-timeframe alignment. Each step corresponds to a clean multiple of your chart timeframe, so the polyline visualizes how successively larger windows bias price, all referenced to the current bar.
House-rules and repainting disclosures:
* Indicator, not strategy. The script does not execute, manage, or suggest orders. It displays computed paths and bias scores for analysis only.
* No performance claims. Past behavior of any measure, including Meta Bias%, does not guarantee future results. There are no assurances of profitability.
* Higher-timeframe updates. Values obtained via security for higher-timeframe series can update intrabar until the higher-timeframe bar closes. The forward path and Meta Bias% may change during formation of a higher-timeframe candle. If you need confirmed higher-timeframe inputs, consider reading the prior higher-timeframe value or acting only after the higher-timeframe close.
* Data sufficiency. The model requires enough history to compute ATR, ADX statistics, and regression windows. On very young charts or illiquid symbols, parts of the readout can be unavailable until sufficient data accumulates.
* Volatility regimes. ATR normalization helps compare across timeframes, but unusual volatility regimes can make the path look deceptively flat or exaggerated. Judge the vertical scale relative to your instrument’s typical ATR.
Tuning tips:
* Stability versus responsiveness. Increase Max Regression Length to steady the micro-forecasts but accept slower response. If you lower it, consider slightly increasing Band Lookback so regime boundaries are not too jumpy.
* Regime bands. Widen the flat half-width to spend more time neutral, which can reduce over-trading tendencies in chop. Shrink the tail width if you want the model to commit to extremes sooner, at the cost of more false swings.
* Wing shaping. If anti-trend behavior feels too abrupt at low ADX, raise the negative wing exponent. If you want trend bias to kick in more decisively at high ADX, lower the positive wing exponent. Small changes have large effects.
* Forced anti-trend. Enable the deep-low option only if you explicitly want a categorical “markets are flat, fade moves” policy. Many users prefer leaving it off to keep regime decisions continuous.
Troubleshooting:
* Nothing plots or the label shows “n/a.” Ensure the chart has enough history for the ADX band statistics, ATR, and the regression windows. Exotic or illiquid symbols with missing data may starve the higher-timeframe computations. Try a more liquid market or a higher timeframe.
* Path flickers or shifts during the bar. This is expected when any higher-timeframe input is still forming. Wait for the higher-timeframe close for fully confirmed behavior, or modify the code to read prior values from the higher timeframe.
* Polyline looks too flat or too steep. Check the chart’s vertical scale and recent ATR regime. Adjust Max Regression Length, the wing exponents, or the band widths to suit the instrument.
Integration ideas for manual workflows:
* Confluence checklist. Use Meta Bias% as one of several independent checks, alongside structure, session context, and event risk. Act only when multiple cues align.
* Stop and target thinking. Because deltas are ATR-scaled at each timeframe, benchmark your proposed stops and targets against the forward steps’ magnitude. Stops that are much tighter than the prevailing ATR often sit inside normal noise.
* Session context. Consider session hours and microstructure. The same ADX value can imply different tradeability in different sessions, particularly in index futures and FX.
This indicator deliberately avoids:
* Fixed thresholds for buy or sell decisions. Markets vary and fixed numbers invite overfitting. Decide what constitutes “high enough” Meta Bias% for your market and timeframe.
* Automatic risk sizing. Proper sizing depends on account parameters, instrument specifications, and personal risk tolerance. Keep that decision in your risk plan, not in a visual bias tool.
* Claims of edge. These measures summarize path geometry and trend context; they do not ensure a tradable edge on their own.
Summary of how to think about the output:
* The script builds a 12-step forward path by stacking linear-regression micro-forecasts across increasing multiples of the chart timeframe.
* Each micro-forecast is blended between trend and anti-trend using an adaptive ADX band with separate aggression controls for positive and negative regimes.
* All computations are done in ATR-true units for each timeframe before reconversion to price, ensuring dimensional consistency when accumulating steps.
* Bias% (per-timeframe and Meta) condenses directional efficiency and trend fidelity into a compact score.
* The output is designed to serve as an analytical overlay that helps assess whether conditions look trend-friendly, fade-friendly, or neutral, while acknowledging higher-timeframe update behavior and avoiding prescriptive trade rules.
Use this tool as one component within a disciplined process that includes independent confirmation, event awareness, and robust risk management.
Seasonality Monte Carlo Forecaster [BackQuant]Seasonality Monte Carlo Forecaster
Plain-English overview
This tool projects a cone of plausible future prices by combining two ideas that traders already use intuitively: seasonality and uncertainty. It watches how your market typically behaves around this calendar date, turns that seasonal tendency into a small daily “drift,” then runs many randomized price paths forward to estimate where price could land tomorrow, next week, or a month from now. The result is a probability cone with a clear expected path, plus optional overlays that show how past years tended to move from this point on the calendar. It is a planning tool, not a crystal ball: the goal is to quantify ranges and odds so you can size, place stops, set targets, and time entries with more realism.
What Monte Carlo is and why quants rely on it
• Definition . Monte Carlo simulation is a way to answer “what might happen next?” when there is randomness in the system. Instead of producing a single forecast, it generates thousands of alternate futures by repeatedly sampling random shocks and adding them to a model of how prices evolve.
• Why it is used . Markets are noisy. A single point forecast hides risk. Monte Carlo gives a distribution of outcomes so you can reason in probabilities: the median path, the 68% band, the 95% band, tail risks, and the chance of hitting a specific level within a horizon.
• Core strengths in quant finance .
– Path-dependent questions : “What is the probability we touch a stop before a target?” “What is the expected drawdown on the way to my objective?”
– Pricing and risk : Useful for path-dependent options, Value-at-Risk (VaR), expected shortfall (CVaR), stress paths, and scenario analysis when closed-form formulas are unrealistic.
– Planning under uncertainty : Portfolio construction and rebalancing rules can be tested against a cloud of plausible futures rather than a single guess.
• Why it fits trading workflows . It turns gut feel like “seasonality is supportive here” into quantitative ranges: “median path suggests +X% with a 68% band of ±Y%; stop at Z has only ~16% odds of being tagged in N days.”
How this indicator builds its probability cone
1) Seasonal pattern discovery
The script builds two day-of-year maps as new data arrives:
• A return map where each calendar day stores an exponentially smoothed average of that day’s log return (yesterday→today). The smoothing (90% old, 10% new) behaves like an EWMA, letting older seasons matter while adapting to new information.
• A volatility map that tracks the typical absolute return for the same calendar day.
It calculates the day-of-year carefully (with leap-year adjustment) and indexes into a 365-slot seasonal array so “March 18” is compared with past March 18ths. This becomes the seasonal bias that gently nudges simulations up or down on each forecast day.
2) Choice of randomness engine
You can pick how the future shocks are generated:
• Daily mode uses a Gaussian draw with the seasonal bias as the mean and a volatility that comes from realized returns, scaled down to avoid over-fitting. It relies on the Box–Muller transform internally to turn two uniform random numbers into one normal shock.
• Weekly mode uses bootstrap sampling from the seasonal return history (resampling actual historical daily drifts and then blending in a fraction of the seasonal bias). Bootstrapping is robust when the empirical distribution has asymmetry or fatter tails than a normal distribution.
Both modes seed their random draws deterministically per path and day, which makes plots reproducible bar-to-bar and avoids flickering bands.
3) Volatility scaling to current conditions
Markets do not always live in average volatility. The engine computes a simple volatility factor from ATR(20)/price and scales the simulated shocks up or down within sensible bounds (clamped between 0.5× and 2.0×). When the current regime is quiet, the cone narrows; when ranges expand, the cone widens. This prevents the classic mistake of projecting calm markets into a storm or vice versa.
4) Many futures, summarized by percentiles
The model generates a matrix of price paths (capped at 100 runs for performance inside TradingView), each path stepping forward for your selected horizon. For each forecast day it sorts the simulated prices and pulls key percentiles:
• 5th and 95th → approximate 95% band (outer cone).
• 16th and 84th → approximate 68% band (inner cone).
• 50th → the median or “expected path.”
These are drawn as polylines so you can immediately see central tendency and dispersion.
5) A historical overlay (optional)
Turn on the overlay to sketch a dotted path of what a purely seasonal projection would look like for the next ~30 days using only the return map, no randomness. This is not a forecast; it is a visual reminder of the seasonal drift you are biasing toward.
Inputs you control and how to think about them
Monte Carlo Simulation
• Price Series for Calculation . The source series, typically close.
• Enable Probability Forecasts . Master switch for simulation and drawing.
• Simulation Iterations . Requested number of paths to run. Internally capped at 100 to protect performance, which is generally enough to estimate the percentiles for a trading chart. If you need ultra-smooth bands, shorten the horizon.
• Forecast Days Ahead . The length of the cone. Longer horizons dilute seasonal signal and widen uncertainty.
• Probability Bands . Draw all bands, just 95%, just 68%, or a custom level (display logic remains 68/95 internally; the custom number is for labeling and color choice).
• Pattern Resolution . Daily leans on day-of-year effects like “turn-of-month” or holiday patterns. Weekly biases toward day-of-week tendencies and bootstraps from history.
• Volatility Scaling . On by default so the cone respects today’s range context.
Plotting & UI
• Probability Cone . Plots the outer and inner percentile envelopes.
• Expected Path . Plots the median line through the cone.
• Historical Overlay . Dotted seasonal-only projection for context.
• Band Transparency/Colors . Customize primary (outer) and secondary (inner) band colors and the mean path color. Use higher transparency for cleaner charts.
What appears on your chart
• A cone starting at the most recent bar, fanning outward. The outer lines are the ~95% band; the inner lines are the ~68% band.
• A median path (default blue) running through the center of the cone.
• An info panel on the final historical bar that summarizes simulation count, forecast days, number of seasonal patterns learned, the current day-of-year, expected percentage return to the median, and the approximate 95% half-range in percent.
• Optional historical seasonal path drawn as dotted segments for the next 30 bars.
How to use it in trading
1) Position sizing and stop logic
The cone translates “volatility plus seasonality” into distances.
• Put stops outside the inner band if you want only ~16% odds of a stop-out due to noise before your thesis can play.
• Size positions so that a test of the inner band is survivable and a test of the outer band is rare but acceptable.
• If your target sits inside the 68% band at your horizon, the payoff is likely modest; outside the 68% but inside the 95% can justify “one-good-push” trades; beyond the 95% band is a low-probability flyer—consider scaling plans or optionality.
2) Entry timing with seasonal bias
When the median path slopes up from this calendar date and the cone is relatively narrow, a pullback toward the lower inner band can be a high-quality entry with a tight invalidation. If the median slopes down, fade rallies toward the upper band or step aside if it clashes with your system.
3) Target selection
Project your time horizon to N bars ahead, then pick targets around the median or the opposite inner band depending on your style. You can also anchor dynamic take-profits to the moving median as new bars arrive.
4) Scenario planning & “what-ifs”
Before events, glance at the cone: if the 95% band already spans a huge range, trade smaller, expect whips, and avoid placing stops at obvious band edges. If the cone is unusually tight, consider breakout tactics and be ready to add if volatility expands beyond the inner band with follow-through.
5) Options and vol tactics
• When the cone is tight : Prefer long gamma structures (debit spreads) only if you expect a regime shift; otherwise premium selling may dominate.
• When the cone is wide : Debit structures benefit from range; credit spreads need wider wings or smaller size. Align with your separate IV metrics.
Reading the probability cone like a pro
• Cone slope = seasonal drift. Upward slope means the calendar has historically favored positive drift from this date, downward slope the opposite.
• Cone width = regime volatility. A widening fan tells you that uncertainty grows fast; a narrow cone says the market typically stays contained.
• Mean vs. price gap . If spot trades well above the median path and the upper band, mean-reversion risk is high. If spot presses the lower inner band in an up-sloping cone, you are in the “buy fear” zone.
• Touches and pierces . Touching the inner band is common noise; piercing it with momentum signals potential regime change; the outer band should be rare and often brings snap-backs unless there is a structural catalyst.
Methodological notes (what the code actually does)
• Log returns are used for additivity and better statistical behavior: sim_ret is applied via exp(sim_ret) to evolve price.
• Seasonal arrays are updated online with EWMA (90/10) so the model keeps learning as each bar arrives.
• Leap years are handled; indexing still normalizes into a 365-slot map so the seasonal pattern remains stable.
• Gaussian engine (Daily mode) centers shocks on the seasonal bias with a conservative standard deviation.
• Bootstrap engine (Weekly mode) resamples from observed seasonal returns and adds a fraction of the bias, which captures skew and fat tails better.
• Volatility adjustment multiplies each daily shock by a factor derived from ATR(20)/price, clamped between 0.5 and 2.0 to avoid extreme cones.
• Performance guardrails : simulations are capped at 100 paths; the probability cone uses polylines (no heavy fills) and only draws on the last confirmed bar to keep charts responsive.
• Prerequisite data : at least ~30 seasonal entries are required before the model will draw a cone; otherwise it waits for more history.
Strengths and limitations
• Strengths :
– Probabilistic thinking replaces single-point guessing.
– Seasonality adds a small but meaningful directional bias that many markets exhibit.
– Volatility scaling adapts to the current regime so the cone stays realistic.
• Limitations :
– Seasonality can break around structural changes, policy shifts, or one-off events.
– The number of paths is performance-limited; percentile estimates are good for trading, not for academic precision.
– The model assumes tomorrow’s randomness resembles recent randomness; if regime shifts violently, the cone will lag until the EWMA adapts.
– Holidays and missing sessions can thin the seasonal sample for some assets; be cautious with very short histories.
Tuning guide
• Horizon : 10–20 bars for tactical trades; 30+ for swing planning when you care more about broad ranges than precise targets.
• Iterations : The default 100 is enough for stable 5/16/50/84/95 percentiles. If you crave smoother lines, shorten the horizon or run on higher timeframes.
• Daily vs. Weekly : Daily for equities and crypto where month-end and turn-of-month effects matter; Weekly for futures and FX where day-of-week behavior is strong.
• Volatility scaling : Keep it on. Turn off only when you intentionally want a “pure seasonality” cone unaffected by current turbulence.
Workflow examples
• Swing continuation : Cone slopes up, price pulls into the lower inner band, your system fires. Enter near the band, stop just outside the outer line for the next 3–5 bars, target near the median or the opposite inner band.
• Fade extremes : Cone is flat or down, price gaps to the upper outer band on news, then stalls. Favor mean-reversion toward the median, size small if volatility scaling is elevated.
• Event play : Before CPI or earnings on a proxy index, check cone width. If the inner band is already wide, cut size or prefer options structures that benefit from range.
Good habits
• Pair the cone with your entry engine (breakout, pullback, order flow). Let Monte Carlo do range math; let your system do signal quality.
• Do not anchor blindly to the median; recalc after each bar. When the cone’s slope flips or width jumps, the plan should adapt.
• Validate seasonality for your symbol and timeframe; not every market has strong calendar effects.
Summary
The Seasonality Monte Carlo Forecaster wraps institutional risk planning into a single overlay: a data-driven seasonal drift, realistic volatility scaling, and a probabilistic cone that answers “where could we be, with what odds?” within your trading horizon. Use it to place stops where randomness is less likely to take you out, to set targets aligned with realistic travel, and to size positions with confidence born from distributions rather than hunches. It will not predict the future, but it will keep your decisions anchored to probabilities—the language markets actually speak.
Dynamic Trend Indicator (DTI) - VWAP FilterThe Dynamic Trend Indicator (DTI) with VWAP Filter is a trend-following indicator.
It aims to identify and follow market trends while minimizing false signals in choppy or ranging markets.
The DTI combines a dynamically adjusted Exponential Moving Average (EMA) with a daily Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) confirmation filter and a cooldown mechanism to enhance signal reliability. This indicator is particularly useful for traders on intraday timeframes (e.g., 4-hour charts) who want to align their trades with the broader daily trend while avoiding whipsaws.
Key Features:
Dynamic Trend Line:
The core of the DTI is a trend line calculated using a custom EMA that adjusts its period dynamically based on market conditions.
The period of the EMA is determined by a combination of volatility (measured via ATR) and trend strength (measured via price momentum). In strong trends, the period shortens for faster responsiveness; in weak or ranging markets, it lengthens to reduce noise.
An optional smoothing EMA can be applied to the dynamic trend line to further reduce noise, with a user-defined smoothing length.
Daily VWAP Confirmation Filter:
A daily VWAP is calculated to provide a higher-timeframe trend bias. VWAP represents the average price paid for an asset during the day, weighted by volume, and is often used as a benchmark by institutional traders.
Buy signals are only generated when the price is above the daily VWAP (indicating a bullish daily bias), and sell signals are only generated when the price is below the VWAP (indicating a bearish daily bias).
The VWAP resets at the start of each day, ensuring it reflects the current day’s trading activity.
Cooldown Mechanism:
To prevent rapid signal reversals (whipsaws), the indicator includes a cooldown period between signals. After a buy or sell signal is generated, no new signals can be generated for a user-defined number of bars (default: 5 bars).
This helps filter out noise in choppy markets, ensuring signals are spaced out and more likely to align with significant trend changes.
Visual Elements:
Trend Line: Plotted on the chart, colored green when the price is above (uptrend) and red when below (downtrend). A gray color indicates a neutral trend.
Buy/Sell Signals: Displayed as green triangles below the bar for buy signals and red triangles above the bar for sell signals.
Background Coloring: The chart background is shaded green during uptrends and red during downtrends, providing a quick visual cue of the trend direction.
Daily VWAP Line: Optionally plotted as a purple step line, allowing traders to see the VWAP level and its relationship to the price.
Alerts:
The indicator includes built-in alerts for buy and sell signals, triggered when the price crosses the trend line and satisfies the VWAP filter and cooldown conditions.
Alert messages specify whether the signal is a buy or sell and confirm that the VWAP condition was met (e.g., "DTI Buy Signal: Price crossed above trend line and VWAP").
Input Parameters
Base Length (default: 14): The base period for calculating volatility and trend strength, used to adjust the dynamic EMA period.
Volatility Multiplier (default: 1.5): Adjusts the sensitivity of the dynamic period to market volatility (via ATR).
Trend Threshold (default: 0.5): Controls the sensitivity of the dynamic period to trend strength (via price momentum).
Use Smoothing (default: true): Enables/disables smoothing of the trend line with an additional EMA.
Smoothing Length (default: 3): The period for the smoothing EMA, if enabled.
Cooldown Bars (default: 5): The minimum number of bars between consecutive signals, reducing signal frequency in choppy markets.
Show Daily VWAP (default: true): Toggles the display of the daily VWAP line on the chart.
How It Works
Dynamic Trend Line Calculation:
Volatility is measured using the Average True Range (ATR) over the base length, scaled by the volatility multiplier.
Trend strength is calculated as the absolute price momentum (change in price over the base length) divided by the volatility factor.
The dynamic EMA period is adjusted based on the trend strength: stronger trends result in a shorter period (faster response), while weaker trends result in a longer period (more stability). The period is constrained between 5 and 50 to avoid extreme values.
A custom EMA function is used to handle the dynamic period, as Pine Script’s built-in ta.ema() requires a fixed length. The trend line is optionally smoothed with a secondary EMA.
Signal Generation:
A buy signal is generated when the price crosses above the trend line, the price is above the daily VWAP, and the cooldown period has elapsed.
A sell signal is generated when the price crosses below the trend line, the price is below the daily VWAP, and the cooldown period has elapsed.
The cooldown mechanism ensures that signals are not generated too frequently, reducing false signals in ranging markets.
Daily VWAP Calculation:
The VWAP is calculated by accumulating the price-volume product (close * volume) and total volume for the day, resetting at the start of each new day.
The VWAP is then computed as the cumulative price-volume divided by the cumulative volume, providing a volume-weighted average price for the day.
Usage
Timeframe: Best suited for intraday timeframes (e.g., 1-hour, 4-hour) where the daily VWAP provides a higher-timeframe trend bias. It can also be used on daily charts with adjustments to the cooldown period.
Markets: Works well in trending markets (e.g., forex, crypto, stocks) where the dynamic trend line can capture sustained price movements. The VWAP filter helps align signals with the daily trend, making it effective for assets with clear daily biases.
Trading Strategy:
Buy: Enter a long position when a green triangle (buy signal) appears, indicating the price has crossed above the trend line and is above the daily VWAP.
Sell: Enter a short position (or exit a long) when a red triangle (sell signal) appears, indicating the price has crossed below the trend line and is below the daily VWAP.
Use the trend line and VWAP as dynamic support/resistance levels to set stop-losses or take-profit targets.
Backtesting: Use TradingView’s strategy tester to evaluate the indicator’s performance on your chosen market and timeframe, adjusting parameters like cooldown_bars and volatility_mult to optimize for profitability.
Example
On a 4-hour SOLUSDT chart, the DTI with VWAP Filter might show:
An uptrend with the price above the green trend line and above the daily VWAP, generating buy signals as the price continues to rise.
A downtrend where the price falls below the red trend line and the daily VWAP, generating sell signals that align with the bearish daily bias.
During choppy periods, the cooldown mechanism and VWAP filter reduce false signals, ensuring trades are taken only when the price aligns with the daily trend.
Limitations
Lagging Nature: Like all trend-following indicators, the DTI may lag during sharp price reversals, as the dynamic EMA needs time to adjust.
Ranging Markets: While the VWAP filter and cooldown mechanism reduce whipsaws, the indicator may still generate some false signals in strongly ranging markets. Combining it with a trend strength filter (e.g., ADX) can help.
VWAP Dependency: The effectiveness of the VWAP filter depends on the market’s respect for the daily VWAP as a support/resistance level. In markets with low volume or erratic price action, the VWAP may be less reliable.
Potential Improvements
VWAP Buffer: Add a percentage buffer around the VWAP (e.g., require the price to be 1% above/below) to further reduce noise.
Multi-Timeframe VWAP: Incorporate a weekly VWAP for additional trend confirmation on longer timeframes.
Trend Strength Filter: Add an ADX filter to ensure signals are generated only during strong trends (e.g., ADX > 25).
Smoothed Candle Averages- NovaTheMachineThis script utilizes a series of moving averages that the user is able to change as they see fit for their own use.
The averages plotted for the first 2 waves are the High-Low rays of the selected period of time with the chosen moving average style.
The Bias is the Heikin Ashi High-Low ray plotted over the chosen time period, while the Secondary Bias is a higher Timeframe Bias for the same period of time on a selected higher timeframe.
The visuals for each ray are able to be changed to either; lines, solid wave, or dynamic wave.
The Dynamic waves will change color according to the total dissection and utilize the Min-Max range selected as a weight for the strength of the trend. Thus providing an at-a-glance overview of the price relative to trend.
The key objective with this script is to gauge the longer term trend with the current price action, to establish patterns and determine strength of moves both away from and towards the moving average/bias.
When both waves are trending with the Bias, it can be reasoned that there is a strong trend established, when waves and Bias are mixed or trending sideways it can be reasoned there is a range forming or potential for a direction change. When price has broken the waves and biases we can reasonably assume that a new trend has been formed, using the waves and biases again to determine the strength and length of the trend.
The Table will display whether the current price is above or below each wave, and whether the price is continuing or retracing. The Signals plotted are used to help identify when price has broken a wave more swiftly.
Price Action Analyst [OmegaTools]Price Action Analyst (PAA) is an advanced trading tool designed to assist traders in identifying key price action structures such as order blocks, market structure shifts, liquidity grabs, and imbalances. With its fully customizable settings, the script offers both novice and experienced traders insights into potential market movements by visually highlighting premium/discount zones, breakout signals, and significant price levels.
This script utilizes complex logic to determine significant price action patterns and provides dynamic tools to spot strong market trends, liquidity pools, and imbalances across different timeframes. It also integrates an internal backtesting function to evaluate win rates based on price interactions with supply and demand zones.
The script combines multiple analysis techniques, including market structure shifts, order block detection, fair value gaps (FVG), and ICT bias detection, to provide a comprehensive and holistic market view.
Key Features:
Order Block Detection: Automatically detects order blocks based on price action and strength analysis, highlighting potential support/resistance zones.
Market Structure Analysis: Tracks internal and external market structure changes with gradient color-coded visuals.
Liquidity Grabs & Breakouts: Detects potential liquidity grab and breakout areas with volume confirmation.
Fair Value Gaps (FVG): Identifies bullish and bearish FVGs based on historical price action and threshold calculations.
ICT Bias: Integrates ICT bias analysis, dynamically adjusting based on higher-timeframe analysis.
Supply and Demand Zones: Highlights supply and demand zones using customizable colors and thresholds, adjusting dynamically based on market conditions.
Trend Lines: Automatically draws trend lines based on significant price pivots, extending them dynamically over time.
Backtesting: Internal backtesting engine to calculate the win rate of signals generated within supply and demand zones.
Percentile-Based Pricing: Plots key percentile price levels to visualize premium, fair, and discount pricing zones.
High Customizability: Offers extensive user input options for adjusting zone detection, color schemes, and structure analysis.
User Guide:
Order Blocks: Order blocks are significant support or resistance zones where strong buyers or sellers previously entered the market. These zones are detected based on pivot points and engulfing price action. The strength of each block is determined by momentum, volume, and liquidity confirmations.
Demand Zones: Displayed in shades of blue based on their strength. The darker the color, the stronger the zone.
Supply Zones: Displayed in shades of red based on their strength. These zones highlight potential resistance areas.
The zones will dynamically extend as long as they remain valid. Users can set a maximum number of order blocks to be displayed.
Market Structure: Market structure is classified into internal and external shifts. A bullish or bearish market structure break (MSB) occurs when the price moves past a previous high or low. This script tracks these breaks and plots them using a gradient color scheme:
Internal Structure: Short-term market structure, highlighting smaller movements.
External Structure: Long-term market shifts, typically more significant.
Users can choose how they want the structure to be visualized through the "Market Structure" setting, choosing from different visual methods.
Liquidity Grabs: The script identifies liquidity grabs (false breakouts designed to trap traders) by monitoring price action around highs and lows of previous bars. These are represented by diamond shapes:
Liquidity Buy: Displayed below bars when a liquidity grab occurs near a low.
Liquidity Sell: Displayed above bars when a liquidity grab occurs near a high.
Breakouts: Breakouts are detected based on strong price momentum beyond key levels:
Breakout Buy: Triggered when the price closes above the highest point of the past 20 bars with confirmation from volume and range expansion.
Breakout Sell: Triggered when the price closes below the lowest point of the past 20 bars, again with volume and range confirmation.
Fair Value Gaps (FVG): Fair value gaps (FVGs) are periods where the price moves too quickly, leaving an unbalanced market condition. The script identifies these gaps:
Bullish FVG: When there is a gap between the low of two previous bars and the high of a recent bar.
Bearish FVG: When a gap occurs between the high of two previous bars and the low of the recent bar.
FVGs are color-coded and can be filtered by their size to focus on more significant gaps.
ICT Bias: The script integrates the ICT methodology by offering an auto-calculated higher-timeframe bias:
Long Bias: Suggests the market is in an uptrend based on higher timeframe analysis.
Short Bias: Indicates a downtrend.
Neutral Bias: Suggests no clear directional bias.
Trend Lines: Automatic trend lines are drawn based on significant pivot highs and lows. These lines will dynamically adjust based on price movement. Users can control the number of trend lines displayed and extend them over time to track developing trends.
Percentile Pricing: The script also plots the 25th percentile (discount zone), 75th percentile (premium zone), and a fair value price. This helps identify whether the current price is overbought (premium) or oversold (discount).
Customization:
Zone Strength Filter: Users can set a minimum strength threshold for order blocks to be displayed.
Color Customization: Users can choose colors for demand and supply zones, market structure, breakouts, and FVGs.
Dynamic Zone Management: The script allows zones to be deleted after a certain number of bars or dynamically adjusts zones based on recent price action.
Max Zone Count: Limits the number of supply and demand zones shown on the chart to maintain clarity.
Backtesting & Win Rate: The script includes a backtesting engine to calculate the percentage of respect on the interaction between price and demand/supply zones. Results are displayed in a table at the bottom of the chart, showing the percentage rating for both long and short zones. Please note that this is not a win rate of a simulated strategy, it simply is a measure to understand if the current assets tends to respect more supply or demand zones.
How to Use:
Load the script onto your chart. The default settings are optimized for identifying key price action zones and structure on intraday charts of liquid assets.
Customize the settings according to your strategy. For example, adjust the "Max Orderblocks" and "Strength Filter" to focus on more significant price action areas.
Monitor the liquidity grabs, breakouts, and FVGs for potential trade opportunities.
Use the bias and market structure analysis to align your trades with the prevailing market trend.
Refer to the backtesting win rates to evaluate the effectiveness of the zones in your trading.
Terms & Conditions:
By using this script, you agree to the following terms:
Educational Purposes Only: This script is provided for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute financial advice. Use at your own risk.
No Warranty: The script is provided "as-is" without any guarantees or warranties regarding its accuracy or completeness. The creator is not responsible for any losses incurred from the use of this tool.
Open-Source License: This script is open-source and may be modified or redistributed in accordance with the TradingView open-source license. Proper credit to the original creator, OmegaTools, must be maintained in any derivative works.
Chimera [theUltimator5]In myth, the chimera is an “impossible” hybrid—lion, goat, and serpent fused into one—striking to look at and formidable in presence. The word has come to mean a beautiful, improbable union of parts that shouldn’t work together, yet do.
Chimera is a dual-mode market context tool that blends a multi-input oscillator with classic ADX/DI trend strength, plus optional multi-timeframe “gap-line” tracking. Use it to visualize regime (trend vs. range), momentum swings around an adaptive midline, and higher timeframe (HTF) reference levels that auto-terminate on touch/cross.
Modes
1) Oscillator view
A smoothed composite of five common inputs—RSI, MACD (oscillator), Bollinger position, Stochastic, and an ATR/DI-weighted bias. Each is normalized to a comparable 0–100 style scale, averaged, and plotted as a candle-style oscillator (short vs. long smoothing, wickless for clarity). A dynamic midline with standard-deviation bands frames neutral → bearish/bullish zones. Colors ramp from neutral to your chosen Oversold/Overbought endpoints; consolidation can override to white.
Here is a description of the (5) signals used to calculate the sentiment oscillator:
RSI (14): Measures recent momentum by comparing average gains vs. losses. High = strength after advances; low = weakness after declines. (Z-score normalized to 0–100.)
MACD oscillator (12/26/9): Uses the difference between MACD and its signal (histogram) to gauge momentum shifts. Positive = bullish tilt; negative = bearish. (Z-score normalized.)
Bollinger Bands position (20, 2): Locates price within the bands (0–100 from lower → upper). Near upper suggests strength/expansion; near lower suggests weakness/contraction. (Then normalized.)
Stochastic (14, 3, 3): Shows where the close sits within the recent high-low range, smoothed via %D. Higher values = closes near highs; lower = near lows. (Scaled 0–100.)
ATR/DI composite (14): Volatility-weighted directional bias: (+DI − −DI) amplified by ATR as a % of price and its relative average. Positive = bullish pressure with volatility; negative = bearish. (Rank/scale normalized.)
All five are normalized and averaged into one composite, then smoothed (short/long) and compared to an adaptive midline with bands.
2) ADX view
Shows ADX, +DI, –DI with user-defined High Threshold. Transparency and color shift with regime. When ADX is strong, a directional “fire/ice” gradient fills the area between ADX and the high threshold, biased toward the dominant DI; when ADX is weak, a soft white fade highlights low-trend conditions.
HTF gap-line tracking (optional; both modes)
Detects “gap-like” reference levels after weak-trend consolidation flips into a sudden DI jump.
Anchors a line at the event bar’s open and auto-terminates upon first touch/cross (tick-size tolerance).
Auto-selects up to three higher timeframes suited to your chart resolution and prints non-overlapping lines with labels like 1H / 4H / 1D. Lower-priority duplicates are suppressed to reduce clutter.
Confirmation / repaint notes
Signals and lines finalize on bar close of the relevant timeframe.
HTF elements update only on the HTF bar close. During a forming bar they may appear transiently.
Line removal finalizes after the bar that produced the touch/cross closes.
Visual cues & effects
Oscillator candles: Open/High = long smoothing; Low/Close = short smoothing (no wicks).
Adaptive bands: Midline ± StdDev Multiplier × stdev of the blended series.
Consolidation tint: Optional white backdrop/candles when the consolidation condition is true (balance + low ADX).
Breakout VFX (optional): With strong DI/ADX and Bollinger breaks, renders a subtle “fire” flare above upper-band thrusts or “ice” shelf below lower-band thrusts.
Inputs (high-level)
Visual Style: Oscillator or ADX.
General (Oscillator): Lookback Period, Short/Long Smoothing, Standard Deviation Multiplier.
Color (Oscillator): Oversold/Overbought colors for gradient endpoints.
Plot (Oscillator): Show Candles, Show Slow MA Line, Show Individual Component (RSI/MACD/BB/Stoch/ATR).
Table (Oscillator): Show Information Table & position (compact dashboard of component values + status).
ADX / Gaps / VFX (both modes): ADX High Threshold, Highlight Backgrounds, Show Gap Labels, Visual Overlay Effects, and color choices for current-TF & HTF lines.
HTF selection: Automatic ladder (3 tiers) based on your chart timeframe.
Alerts (built-in)
Buy Signal – Primary: Oscillator exits oversold.
Sell Signal – Primary: Oscillator exits overbought.
Gap Fill Line Created (Any TF)
Gap Fill Line Terminated (Any TF)
ADX Crossed ABOVE/BELOW Low Threshold
ADX Crossed ABOVE/BELOW High Threshold
Consolidation Started
Alerts evaluate on the close of the relevant timeframe.
How to read it (quick guide)
Pick your lens: Oscillator for blended momentum around an adaptive midline; ADX for trend strength and DI skew.
Watch extremes & mean re-entries (Oscillator): Approaches to the top/bottom band show persistent momentum; returns toward the midline show normalization.
Check regime (ADX): Below Low = low-trend; above High = strong trend, with “fire/ice” bias toward +DI/–DI.
Track gap lines: Fresh labels mark new reference levels; lines auto-remove on first interaction. HTF lines add context but finalize only on HTF close.
The uniqueness from this indicator comes from multiple areas:
1. A unique multi-timeframe algorithm detects gap fill zones and plots them on the chart.
2. Visual effects for both visual modes were hand crafted to provide a visually stunning and intuitive interface.
3. The algorithm to determine sentiment uses a unique blend of weight and sensitivity adjustment to create a plot with elastic upper and lower bounds based off historical volatility and price action.
MacroJP: US Macro Conditions & Forward GuidanceMacroJP is a comprehensive, free-to-use TradingView indicator designed to provide a clear snapshot of the US macroeconomic environment. It consolidates key economic metrics into a single, interactive dashboard, allowing traders and investors to quickly assess current conditions and adjust their portfolio biases accordingly.
How It Works:
• Data Aggregation:
The indicator pulls monthly data from reputable free economic sources—specifically, ISM Manufacturing PMI, US CPI YoY, US M2 Money Supply, and US Treasury yields (10-year and 2-year). This robust dataset forms the backbone of the analysis.
• Composite Calculations:
By calculating a Composite Inflation Indicator (the average of CPI YoY and the yield spread) and evaluating the year-over-year change in M2, MacroJP gauges both the inflationary pressures and liquidity trends in the economy. These composite metrics offer a nuanced view that goes beyond single-indicator analysis.
Regime Classification:
The core strength of MacroJP lies in its quadrant classification system. It categorises the macro environment into four distinct regimes based on the direction of economic growth (derived from PMI) and inflation (from the Composite Inflation Indicator):
• Expansion (Reflation): Indicative of a recovering economy with rising production and moderate inflation—ideal for a bullish equity bias.
• Stagflation Risk: A scenario of weak growth coupled with high inflation, where a defensive posture is recommended.
• Slowdown (Deflationary): Characterised by contracting economic activity and falling prices, suggesting a move towards cash or high-quality bonds.
• Disinflationary Boom: Reflects strong growth with stable or falling inflation—an optimal environment for equities with some bond diversification.
Forward Guidance:
To enhance its predictive capability, MacroJP incorporates leading indicators by shifting key data points. For instance, it uses a forward-shifted M2 YoY value and a one-month shifted CPI proxy to offer insights into near-term trends. This approach helps in anticipating changes, providing a sort of “forward guidance” that can inform strategic asset allocation.
User Education:
The indicator features an intuitive table with on-hover tooltips that explain each metric, its relevance, and recommended investment biases. This educational layer is designed to empower users to not only monitor the economic pulse but also to understand the ‘why’ behind each reading, making it a valuable tool for both novice and experienced investors.
MacroJP brings clarity to complex macroeconomic dynamics, allowing users to make more informed decisions in volatile markets. Its seamless integration of free public data and detailed on-chart annotations makes it an indispensable tool for anyone looking to understand the broader economic context impacting their investments.
— Jaroslav
Equal-Length EMA/SMA Crossover Momentum StrategyOverview:
This momentum and trend-following strategy captures the majority of any trending move, and works well on high timeframes.
It uses an equal-period EMA and SMA crossover to detect trend acceleration/deceleration, since an EMA places a greater weight and significance on the most recent data.
This version is optimized for longs, and designed to cut your losses quickly and let your winners run.
To reduce noise and optimize entries, we combined this with an overall trend bias for further confluence.
How it works:
Signals are determined by the crossover of an EMA and SMA of the same length, e.g. EMA-50 and SMA-50.
The overall trend bias is determined using a slower SMA golden/death cross, e.g. SMA-50 and SMA-100.
The signal is stronger when it occurs in confluence with the overall trend bias, e.g. when EMA-50 crosses over SMA-50, while above the SMA-100. This is analogous to only opening long positions in a bull market.
Signal description:
Trend Buy: EMA crosses above SMA, and overall trend bias is bullish. Buying is in confluence with the overall trend bias.
Risky Buy: EMA crosses above SMA, and overall trend bias is bearish. Buying is early, more risky, and not in confluence with the overall trend bias.
Late Buy: SMA crosses above BIAS_SLOW. This gives further confirmation of bullish trend, but signal comes later.
Sell: EMA crosses under SMA.
Strategy entry and exit conditions:
This version enters a Long when "TREND BUY" is signalled.
This version has Sell/Shorts disabled because UP ONLY.
Long entry: Strategy enters Long when EMA is above SMA, while overall trend bias is bullish.
Long exit: Close long when EMA crosses under SMA.
Equal-Length EMA/SMA Crossover Momentum Signal V1Overview:
This momentum and trend-following strategy captures the majority of any trending move, and works well on high timeframes.
It uses an equal-period EMA and SMA crossover to detect trend acceleration/deceleration, since an EMA places a greater weight and significance on the most recent data.
This version is optimized for longs, and designed to cut your losses quickly and let your winners run.
To reduce noise and optimize entries, we combined this with an overall trend bias for further confluence.
How it works:
Signals are determined by the crossover of an EMA and SMA of the same length, e.g. EMA-50 and SMA-50.
The overall trend bias is determined using a slower SMA golden/death cross, e.g. SMA-50 and SMA-100.
The signal is stronger when it occurs in confluence with the overall trend bias, e.g. when EMA-50 crosses over SMA-50, while above the SMA-100. This is analogous to only opening long positions in a bull market.
Signal description:
Trend Buy: EMA crosses above SMA, and overall trend bias is bullish. Buying is in confluence with the overall trend bias.
Risky Buy: EMA crosses above SMA, and overall trend bias is bearish. Buying is early, more risky, and not in confluence with the overall trend bias.
Late Buy: SMA crosses above BIAS_SLOW. This gives further confirmation of bullish trend, but signal comes later.
Sell: EMA crosses under SMA.
