Why EMA Isn't What You Think It IsMany new traders adopt the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) believing it's simply a "better Simple Moving Average (SMA)". This common misconception leads to fundamental misunderstandings about how EMA works and when to use it.
EMA and SMA differ at their core. SMA use a window of finite number of data points, giving equal weight to each data point in the calculation period. This makes SMA a Finite Impulse Response (FIR) filter in signal processing terms. Remember that FIR means that "all that we need is the 'period' number of data points" to calculate the filter value. Anything beyond the given period is not relevant to FIR filters – much like how a security camera with 14-day storage automatically overwrites older footage, making last month's activity completely invisible regardless of how important it might have been.
EMA, however, is an Infinite Impulse Response (IIR) filter. It uses ALL historical data, with each past price having a diminishing - but never zero - influence on the calculated value. This creates an EMA response that extends infinitely into the past—not just for the last N periods. IIR filters cannot be precise if we give them only a 'period' number of data to work on - they will be off-target significantly due to lack of context, like trying to understand Game of Thrones by watching only the final season and wondering why everyone's so upset about that dragon lady going full pyromaniac.
If we only consider a number of data points equal to the EMA's period, we are capturing no more than 86.5% of the total weight of the EMA calculation. Relying on he period window alone (the warm-up period) will provide only 1 - (1 / e^2) weights, which is approximately 1−0.1353 = 0.8647 = 86.5%. That's like claiming you've read a book when you've skipped the first few chapters – technically, you got most of it, but you probably miss some crucial early context.
▶️ What is period in EMA used for?
What does a period parameter really mean for EMA? When we select a 15-period EMA, we're not selecting a window of 15 data points as with an SMA. Instead, we are using that number to calculate a decay factor (α) that determines how quickly older data loses influence in EMA result. Every trader knows EMA calculation: α = 1 / (1+period) – or at least every trader claims to know this while secretly checking the formula when they need it.
Thinking in terms of "period" seriously restricts EMA. The α parameter can be - should be! - any value between 0.0 and 1.0, offering infinite tuning possibilities of the indicator. When we limit ourselves to whole-number periods that we use in FIR indicators, we can only access a small subset of possible IIR calculations – it's like having access to the entire RGB color spectrum with 16.7 million possible colors but stubbornly sticking to the 8 basic crayons in a child's first art set because the coloring book only mentioned those by name.
For example:
Period 10 → alpha = 0.1818
Period 11 → alpha = 0.1667
What about wanting an alpha of 0.17, which might yield superior returns in your strategy that uses EMA? No whole-number period can provide this! Direct α parameterization offers more precision, much like how an analog tuner lets you find the perfect radio frequency while digital presets force you to choose only from predetermined stations, potentially missing the clearest signal sitting right between channels.
Sidenote: the choice of α = 1 / (1+period) is just a convention from 1970s, probably started by J. Welles Wilder, who popularized the use of the 14-day EMA. It was designed to create an approximate equivalence between EMA and SMA over the same number of periods, even thought SMA needs a period window (as it is FIR filter) and EMA doesn't. In reality, the decay factor α in EMA should be allowed any valye between 0.0 and 1.0, not just some discrete values derived from an integer-based period! Algorithmic systems should find the best α decay for EMA directly, allowing the system to fine-tune at will and not through conversion of integer period to float α decay – though this might put a few traditionalist traders into early retirement. Well, to prevent that, most traditionalist implementations of EMA only use period and no alpha at all. Heaven forbid we disturb people who print their charts on paper, draw trendlines with rulers, and insist the market "feels different" since computers do algotrading!
▶️ Calculating EMAs Efficiently
The standard textbook formula for EMA is:
EMA = CurrentPrice × alpha + PreviousEMA × (1 - alpha)
But did you know that a more efficient version exists, once you apply a tiny bit of high school algebra:
EMA = alpha × (CurrentPrice - PreviousEMA) + PreviousEMA
The first one requires three operations: 2 multiplications + 1 addition. The second one also requires three ops: 1 multiplication + 1 addition + 1 subtraction.
That's pathetic, you say? Not worth implementing? In most computational models, multiplications cost much more than additions/subtractions – much like how ordering dessert costs more than asking for a water refill at restaurants.
Relative CPU cost of float operations :
Addition/Subtraction: ~1 cycle
Multiplication: ~5 cycles (depending on precision and architecture)
Now you see the difference? 2 * 5 + 1 = 11 against 5 + 1 + 1 = 7. That is ≈ 36.36% efficiency gain just by swapping formulas around! And making your high school math teacher proud enough to finally put your test on the refrigerator.
▶️ The Warmup Problem: how to start the EMA sequence right
How do we calculate the first EMA value when there's no previous EMA available? Let's see some possible options used throughout the history:
Start with zero : EMA(0) = 0. This creates stupidly large distortion until enough bars pass for the horrible effect to diminish – like starting a trading account with zero balance but backdating a year of missed trades, then watching your balance struggle to climb out of a phantom debt for months.
Start with first price : EMA(0) = first price. This is better than starting with zero, but still causes initial distortion that will be extra-bad if the first price is an outlier – like forming your entire opinion of a stock based solely on its IPO day price, then wondering why your model is tanking for weeks afterward.
Use SMA for warmup : This is the tradition from the pencil-and-paper era of technical analysis – when calculators were luxury items and "algorithmic trading" meant your broker had neat handwriting. We first calculate an SMA over the initial period, then kickstart the EMA with this average value. It's widely used due to tradition, not merit, creating a mathematical Frankenstein that uses an FIR filter (SMA) during the initial period before abruptly switching to an IIR filter (EMA). This methodology is so aesthetically offensive (abrupt kink on the transition from SMA to EMA) that charting platforms hide these early values entirely, pretending EMA simply doesn't exist until the warmup period passes – the technical analysis equivalent of sweeping dust under the rug.
Use WMA for warmup : This one was never popular because it is harder to calculate with a pencil - compared to using simple SMA for warmup. Weighted Moving Average provides a much better approximation of a starting value as its linear descending profile is much closer to the EMA's decay profile.
These methods all share one problem: they produce inaccurate initial values that traders often hide or discard, much like how hedge funds conveniently report awesome performance "since strategy inception" only after their disastrous first quarter has been surgically removed from the track record.
▶️ A Better Way to start EMA: Decaying compensation
Think of it this way: An ideal EMA uses an infinite history of prices, but we only have data starting from a specific point. This creates a problem - our EMA starts with an incorrect assumption that all previous prices were all zero, all close, or all average – like trying to write someone's biography but only having information about their life since last Tuesday.
But there is a better way. It requires more than high school math comprehension and is more computationally intensive, but is mathematically correct and numerically stable. This approach involves compensating calculated EMA values for the "phantom data" that would have existed before our first price point.
Here's how phantom data compensation works:
We start our normal EMA calculation:
EMA_today = EMA_yesterday + α × (Price_today - EMA_yesterday)
But we add a correction factor that adjusts for the missing history:
Correction = 1 at the start
Correction = Correction × (1-α) after each calculation
We then apply this correction:
True_EMA = Raw_EMA / (1-Correction)
This correction factor starts at 1 (full compensation effect) and gets exponentially smaller with each new price bar. After enough data points, the correction becomes so small (i.e., below 0.0000000001) that we can stop applying it as it is no longer relevant.
Let's see how this works in practice:
For the first price bar:
Raw_EMA = 0
Correction = 1
True_EMA = Price (since 0 ÷ (1-1) is undefined, we use the first price)
For the second price bar:
Raw_EMA = α × (Price_2 - 0) + 0 = α × Price_2
Correction = 1 × (1-α) = (1-α)
True_EMA = α × Price_2 ÷ (1-(1-α)) = Price_2
For the third price bar:
Raw_EMA updates using the standard formula
Correction = (1-α) × (1-α) = (1-α)²
True_EMA = Raw_EMA ÷ (1-(1-α)²)
With each new price, the correction factor shrinks exponentially. After about -log₁₀(1e-10)/log₁₀(1-α) bars, the correction becomes negligible, and our EMA calculation matches what we would get if we had infinite historical data.
This approach provides accurate EMA values from the very first calculation. There's no need to use SMA for warmup or discard early values before output converges - EMA is mathematically correct from first value, ready to party without the awkward warmup phase.
Here is Pine Script 6 implementation of EMA that can take alpha parameter directly (or period if desired), returns valid values from the start, is resilient to dirty input values, uses decaying compensator instead of SMA, and uses the least amount of computational cycles possible.
// Enhanced EMA function with proper initialization and efficient calculation
ema(series float source, simple int period=0, simple float alpha=0)=>
// Input validation - one of alpha or period must be provided
if alpha<=0 and period<=0
runtime.error("Alpha or period must be provided")
// Calculate alpha from period if alpha not directly specified
float a = alpha > 0 ? alpha : 2.0 / math.max(period, 1)
// Initialize variables for EMA calculation
var float ema = na // Stores raw EMA value
var float result = na // Stores final corrected EMA
var float e = 1.0 // Decay compensation factor
var bool warmup = true // Flag for warmup phase
if not na(source)
if na(ema)
// First value case - initialize EMA to zero
// (we'll correct this immediately with the compensation)
ema := 0
result := source
else
// Standard EMA calculation (optimized formula)
ema := a * (source - ema) + ema
if warmup
// During warmup phase, apply decay compensation
e *= (1-a) // Update decay factor
float c = 1.0 / (1.0 - e) // Calculate correction multiplier
result := c * ema // Apply correction
// Stop warmup phase when correction becomes negligible
if e <= 1e-10
warmup := false
else
// After warmup, EMA operates without correction
result := ema
result // Return the properly compensated EMA value
▶️ CONCLUSION
EMA isn't just a "better SMA"—it is a fundamentally different tool, like how a submarine differs from a sailboat – both float, but the similarities end there. EMA responds to inputs differently, weighs historical data differently, and requires different initialization techniques.
By understanding these differences, traders can make more informed decisions about when and how to use EMA in trading strategies. And as EMA is embedded in so many other complex and compound indicators and strategies, if system uses tainted and inferior EMA calculatiomn, it is doing a disservice to all derivative indicators too – like building a skyscraper on a foundation of Jell-O.
The next time you add an EMA to your chart, remember: you're not just looking at a "faster moving average." You're using an INFINITE IMPULSE RESPONSE filter that carries the echo of all previous price actions, properly weighted to help make better trading decisions.
EMA done right might significantly improve the quality of all signals, strategies, and trades that rely on EMA somewhere deep in its algorithmic bowels – proving once again that math skills are indeed useful after high school, no matter what your guidance counselor told you.
Search in scripts for "one一季度财报"
Quarterly Theory ICT 05 [TradingFinder] Doubling Theory Signals🔵 Introduction
Doubling Theory is an advanced approach to price action and market structure analysis that uniquely combines time-based analysis with key Smart Money concepts such as SMT (Smart Money Technique), SSMT (Sequential SMT), Liquidity Sweep, and the Quarterly Theory ICT.
By leveraging fractal time structures and precisely identifying liquidity zones, this method aims to reveal institutional activity specifically smart money entry and exit points hidden within price movements.
At its core, the market is divided into two structural phases: Doubling 1 and Doubling 2. Each phase contains four quarters (Q1 through Q4), which follow the logic of the Quarterly Theory: Accumulation, Manipulation (Judas Swing), Distribution, and Continuation/Reversal.
These segments are anchored by the True Open, allowing for precise alignment with cyclical market behavior and providing a deeper structural interpretation of price action.
During Doubling 1, a Sequential SMT (SSMT) Divergence typically forms between two correlated assets. This time-structured divergence occurs between two swing points positioned in separate quarters (e.g., Q1 and Q2), where one asset breaks a significant low or high, while the second asset fails to confirm it. This lack of confirmation—especially when aligned with the Manipulation and Accumulation phases—often signals early smart money involvement.
Following this, the highest and lowest price points from Doubling 1 are designated as liquidity zones. As the market transitions into Doubling 2, it commonly returns to these zones in a calculated move known as a Liquidity Sweep—a sharp, engineered spike intended to trigger stop orders and pending positions. This sweep, often orchestrated by institutional players, facilitates entry into large positions with minimal slippage.
Bullish :
Bearish :
🔵 How to Use
Applying Doubling Theory requires a simultaneous understanding of temporal structure and inter-asset behavioral divergence. The method unfolds over two main phases—Doubling 1 and Doubling 2—each divided into four quarters (Q1 to Q4).
The first phase focuses on identifying a Sequential SMT (SSMT) divergence, which forms when two correlated assets (e.g., EURUSD and GBPUSD, or NQ and ES) react differently to key price levels across distinct quarters. For example, one asset may break a previous low while the other maintains structure. This misalignment—especially in Q2, the Manipulation phase—often indicates early smart money accumulation or distribution.
Once this divergence is observed, the extreme highs and lows of Doubling 1 are marked as liquidity zones. In Doubling 2, the market gravitates back toward these zones, executing a Liquidity Sweep.
This move is deliberate—designed to activate clustered stop-loss and pending orders and to exploit pockets of resting liquidity. These sweeps are typically driven by institutional forces looking to absorb liquidity and position themselves ahead of the next major price move.
The key to execution lies in the fact that, during the sweep in Doubling 2, a classic SMT divergence should also appear between the two assets. This indicates a weakening of the previous trend and adds an extra layer of confirmation.
🟣 Bullish Doubling Theory
In the bullish scenario, Doubling 1 begins with a bullish SSMT divergence, where one asset forms a lower low while the other maintains its structure. This divergence signals weakening bearish momentum and possible smart money accumulation. In Doubling 2, the market returns to the previous low and sweeps the liquidity zone—breaking below it on one asset, while the second fails to confirm, forming a bullish SMT divergence.
f this move is followed by a bullish PSP and a clear market structure break (MSB), a long entry is triggered. The stop-loss is placed just below the swept liquidity zone, while the target is set in the premium zone, anticipating a move driven by institutional buyers.
🟣 Bearish Doubling Theory
The bearish scenario follows the same structure in reverse. In Doubling 1, a bearish SSMT divergence occurs when one asset prints a higher high while the other fails to do so. This suggests distribution and weakening buying pressure. Then, in Doubling 2, the market returns to the previous high and executes a liquidity sweep, targeting trapped buyers.
A bearish SMT divergence appears, confirming the move, followed by a bearish PSP on the lower timeframe. A short position is initiated after a confirmed MSB, with the stop-loss placed
🔵 Settings
⚙️ Logical Settings
Quarterly Cycles Type : Select the time segmentation method for SMT analysis.
Available modes include : Yearly, Monthly, Weekly, Daily, 90 Minute, and Micro.
These define how the indicator divides market time into Q1–Q4 cycles.
Symbol : Choose the secondary asset to compare with the main chart asset (e.g., XAUUSD, US100, GBPUSD).
Pivot Period : Sets the sensitivity of the pivot detection algorithm. A smaller value increases responsiveness to price swings.
Pivot Sync Threshold : The maximum allowed difference (in bars) between pivots of the two assets for them to be compared.
Validity Pivot Length : Defines the time window (in bars) during which a divergence remains valid before it's considered outdated.
🎨 Display Settings
Show Cycle :Toggles the visual display of the current Quarter (Q1 to Q4) based on the selected time segmentation
Show Cycle Label : Shows the name (e.g., "Q2") of each detected Quarter on the chart.
Show Labels : Displays dynamic labels (e.g., “Q2”, “Bullish SMT”, “Sweep”) at relevant points.
Show Lines : Draws connection lines between key pivot or divergence points.
Color Settings : Allows customization of colors for bullish and bearish elements (lines, labels, and shapes)
🔔 Alert Settings
Alert Name : Custom name for the alert messages (used in TradingView’s alert system).
Message Frequenc y:
All : Every signal triggers an alert.
Once Per Bar : Alerts once per bar regardless of how many signals occur.
Per Bar Close : Only triggers when the bar closes and the signal still exists.
Time Zone Display : Choose the time zone in which alert timestamps are displayed (e.g., UTC).
Bullish SMT Divergence Alert : Enable/disable alerts specifically for bullish signals.
Bearish SMT Divergence Alert : Enable/disable alerts specifically for bearish signals
🔵 Conclusion
Doubling Theory is a powerful and structured framework within the realm of Smart Money Concepts and ICT methodology, enabling traders to detect high-probability reversal points with precision. By integrating SSMT, SMT, Liquidity Sweeps, and the Quarterly Theory into a unified system, this approach shifts the focus from reactive trading to anticipatory analysis—anchored in time, structure, and liquidity.
What makes Doubling Theory stand out is its logical synergy of time cycles, behavioral divergence, liquidity targeting, and institutional confirmation. In both bullish and bearish scenarios, it provides clearly defined entry and exit strategies, allowing traders to engage the market with confidence, controlled risk, and deeper insight into the mechanics of price manipulation and smart money footprints.
GIGANEVA V6.61 PublicThis enhanced Fibonacci script for TradingView is a powerful, all-in-one tool that calculates Fibonacci Levels, Fans, Time Pivots, and Golden Pivots on both logarithmic and linear scales. Its ability to compute time pivots via fan intersections and Range interactions, combined with user-friendly features like Bool Fib Right, sets it apart. The script maximizes TradingView’s plotting capabilities, making it a unique and versatile tool for technical analysis across various markets.
1. Overview of the Script
The script appears to be a custom technical analysis tool built for TradingView, improving upon an existing script from TradingView’s Community Scripts. It calculates and plots:
Fibonacci Levels: Standard retracement levels (e.g., 0.236, 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, etc.) based on a user-defined price range.
Fibonacci Fans: Trendlines drawn from a high or low point, radiating at Fibonacci ratios to project potential support/resistance zones.
Time Pivots: Points in time where significant price action is expected, determined by the intersection of Fibonacci Fans or their interaction with key price levels.
Golden Pivots: Specific time pivots calculated when the 0.5 Fibonacci Fan (on a logarithmic or linear scale) intersects with its counterpart.
The script supports both logarithmic and linear price scales, ensuring versatility across different charting preferences. It also includes a feature to extend Fibonacci Fans to the right, regardless of whether the user selects the top or bottom of the range first.
2. Key Components Explained
a) Fibonacci Levels and Fans from Top and Bottom of the "Range"
Fibonacci Levels: These are horizontal lines plotted at standard Fibonacci retracement ratios (e.g., 0.236, 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, etc.) based on a user-defined price range (the "Range"). The Range is typically the distance between a significant high (top) and low (bottom) on the chart.
Example: If the high is $100 and the low is $50, the 0.618 retracement level would be at $80.90 ($50 + 0.618 × $50).
Fibonacci Fans: These are diagonal lines drawn from either the top or bottom of the Range, radiating at Fibonacci ratios (e.g., 0.382, 0.5, 0.618). They project potential dynamic support or resistance zones as price evolves over time.
From Top: Fans drawn downward from the high of the Range.
From Bottom: Fans drawn upward from the low of the Range.
Log and Linear Scale:
Logarithmic Scale: Adjusts price intervals to account for percentage changes, which is useful for assets with large price ranges (e.g., cryptocurrencies or stocks with exponential growth). Fibonacci calculations on a log scale ensure ratios are proportional to percentage moves.
Linear Scale: Uses absolute price differences, suitable for assets with smaller, more stable price ranges.
The script’s ability to plot on both scales makes it adaptable to different markets and user preferences.
b) Time Pivots
Time pivots are points in time where significant price action (e.g., reversals, breakouts) is anticipated. The script calculates these in two ways:
Fans Crossing Each Other:
When two Fibonacci Fans (e.g., one from the top and one from the bottom) intersect, their crossing point represents a potential time pivot. This is because the intersection indicates a convergence of dynamic support/resistance zones, increasing the likelihood of a price reaction.
Example: A 0.618 fan from the top crosses a 0.382 fan from the bottom at a specific bar on the chart, marking that bar as a time pivot.
Fans Crossing Top and Bottom of the Range:
A fan line (e.g., 0.5 fan from the bottom) may intersect the top or bottom price level of the Range at a specific time. This intersection highlights a moment where the fan’s projected support/resistance aligns with a key price level, signaling a potential pivot.
Example: The 0.618 fan from the bottom reaches the top of the Range ($100) at bar 50, marking bar 50 as a time pivot.
c) Golden Pivots
Definition: Golden pivots are a special type of time pivot calculated when the 0.5 Fibonacci Fan on one scale (logarithmic or linear) intersects with the 0.5 fan on the opposite scale (or vice versa).
Significance: The 0.5 level is the midpoint of the Fibonacci sequence and often acts as a critical balance point in price action. When fans at this level cross, it suggests a high-probability moment for a price reversal or significant move.
Example: If the 0.5 fan on a logarithmic scale (drawn from the bottom) crosses the 0.5 fan on a linear scale (drawn from the top) at bar 100, this intersection is labeled a "Golden Pivot" due to its confluence of key Fibonacci levels.
d) Bool Fib Right
This is a user-configurable setting (a boolean input in the script) that extends Fibonacci Fans to the right side of the chart.
Functionality: When enabled, the fans project forward in time, regardless of whether the user selected the top or bottom of the Range first. This ensures consistency in visualization, as the direction of the Range selection (top-to-bottom or bottom-to-top) does not affect the fan’s extension.
Use Case: Traders can use this to project future support/resistance zones without worrying about how they defined the Range, improving usability.
3. Why Is This Code Unique?
Original calculation of Log levels were taken from zekicanozkanli code. Thank you for giving me great Foundation, later modified and applied to Fib fans. The script’s uniqueness stems from its comprehensive integration of Fibonacci-based tools and its optimization for TradingView’s plotting capabilities. Here’s a detailed breakdown:
All-in-One Fibonacci Tool:
Most Fibonacci scripts on TradingView focus on either retracement levels, extensions, or fans.
This script combines:
Fibonacci Levels: Static horizontal lines for retracement and extension.
Fibonacci Fans: Dynamic trendlines for projecting support/resistance.
Time Pivots: Temporal analysis based on fan intersections and Range interactions.
Golden Pivots: Specialized pivots based on 0.5 fan confluences.
By integrating these functions, the script provides a holistic Fibonacci analysis tool, reducing the need for multiple scripts.
Log and Linear Scale Support:
Many Fibonacci tools are designed for linear scales only, which can distort projections for assets with exponential price movements. By supporting both logarithmic and linear scales, the script caters to a wider range of markets (e.g., stocks, forex, crypto) and user preferences.
Time Pivot Calculations:
Calculating time pivots based on fan intersections and Range interactions is a novel feature. Most TradingView scripts focus on price-based Fibonacci levels, not temporal analysis. This adds a predictive element, helping traders anticipate when significant price action might occur.
Golden Pivot Innovation:
The concept of "Golden Pivots" (0.5 fan intersections across scales) is a unique addition. It leverages the symmetry of the 0.5 level and the differences between log and linear scales to identify high-probability pivot points.
Maximized Plot Capabilities:
TradingView imposes limits on the number of plots (lines, labels, etc.) a script can render. This script is coded to fully utilize these limits, ensuring that all Fibonacci levels, fans, pivots, and labels are plotted without exceeding TradingView’s constraints.
This optimization likely involves efficient use of arrays, loops, and conditional plotting to manage resources while delivering a rich visual output.
User-Friendly Features:
The Bool Fib Right option simplifies fan projection, making the tool intuitive even for users who may not consistently select the Range in the same order.
The script’s flexibility in handling top/bottom Range selection enhances usability.
4. Potential Use Cases
Trend Analysis: Traders can use Fibonacci Fans to identify dynamic support/resistance zones in trending markets.
Reversal Trading: Time pivots and Golden Pivots help pinpoint moments for potential price reversals.
Range Trading: Fibonacci Levels provide key price zones for trading within a defined range.
Cross-Market Application: Log/linear scale support makes the script suitable for stocks, forex, commodities, and cryptocurrencies.
The original code was from zekicanozkanli . Thank you for giving me great Foundation.
RSI Forecast [Titans_Invest]RSI Forecast
Introducing one of the most impressive RSI indicators ever created – arguably the best on TradingView, and potentially the best in the world.
RSI Forecast is a visionary evolution of the classic RSI, merging powerful customization with groundbreaking predictive capabilities. While preserving the core principles of traditional RSI, it takes analysis to the next level by allowing users to anticipate potential future RSI movements.
Real-Time RSI Forecasting:
For the first time ever, an RSI indicator integrates linear regression using the least squares method to accurately forecast the future behavior of the RSI. This innovation empowers traders to stay one step ahead of the market with forward-looking insight.
Highly Customizable:
Easily adapt the indicator to your personal trading style. Fine-tune a variety of parameters to generate signals perfectly aligned with your strategy.
Innovative, Unique, and Powerful:
This is the world’s first RSI Forecast to apply this predictive approach using least squares linear regression. A truly elite-level tool designed for traders who want a real edge in the market.
⯁ SCIENTIFIC BASIS LINEAR REGRESSION
Linear Regression is a fundamental method of statistics and machine learning, used to model the relationship between a dependent variable y and one or more independent variables 𝑥.
The general formula for a simple linear regression is given by:
y = β₀ + β₁x + ε
Where:
y = is the predicted variable (e.g. future value of RSI)
x = is the explanatory variable (e.g. time or bar index)
β0 = is the intercept (value of 𝑦 when 𝑥 = 0)
𝛽1 = is the slope of the line (rate of change)
ε = is the random error term
The goal is to estimate the coefficients 𝛽0 and 𝛽1 so as to minimize the sum of the squared errors — the so-called Random Error Method Least Squares.
⯁ LEAST SQUARES ESTIMATION
To minimize the error between predicted and observed values, we use the following formulas:
β₁ = /
β₀ = ȳ - β₁x̄
Where:
∑ = sum
x̄ = mean of x
ȳ = mean of y
x_i, y_i = individual values of the variables.
Where:
x_i and y_i are the means of the independent and dependent variables, respectively.
i ranges from 1 to n, the number of observations.
These equations guarantee the best linear unbiased estimator, according to the Gauss-Markov theorem, assuming homoscedasticity and linearity.
⯁ LINEAR REGRESSION IN MACHINE LEARNING
Linear regression is one of the cornerstones of supervised learning. Its simplicity and ability to generate accurate quantitative predictions make it essential in AI systems, predictive algorithms, time series analysis, and automated trading strategies.
By applying this model to the RSI, you are literally putting artificial intelligence at the heart of a classic indicator, bringing a new dimension to technical analysis.
⯁ VISUAL INTERPRETATION
Imagine an RSI time series like this:
Time →
RSI →
The regression line will smooth these values and extend them n periods into the future, creating a predicted trajectory based on the historical moment. This line becomes the predicted RSI, which can be crossed with the actual RSI to generate more intelligent signals.
⯁ SUMMARY OF SCIENTIFIC CONCEPTS USED
Linear Regression Models the relationship between variables using a straight line.
Least Squares Minimizes the sum of squared errors between prediction and reality.
Time Series Forecasting Estimates future values based on historical data.
Supervised Learning Trains models to predict outputs from known inputs.
Statistical Smoothing Reduces noise and reveals underlying trends.
⯁ WHY THIS INDICATOR IS REVOLUTIONARY
Scientifically-based: Based on statistical theory and mathematical inference.
Unprecedented: First public RSI with least squares predictive modeling.
Intelligent: Built with machine learning logic.
Practical: Generates forward-thinking signals.
Customizable: Flexible for any trading strategy.
⯁ CONCLUSION
By combining RSI with linear regression, this indicator allows a trader to predict market momentum, not just follow it.
RSI Forecast is not just an indicator — it is a scientific breakthrough in technical analysis technology.
⯁ Example of simple linear regression, which has one independent variable:
⯁ In linear regression, observations ( red ) are considered to be the result of random deviations ( green ) from an underlying relationship ( blue ) between a dependent variable ( y ) and an independent variable ( x ).
⯁ Visualizing heteroscedasticity in a scatterplot against 100 random fitted values using Matlab:
⯁ The data sets in the Anscombe's quartet are designed to have approximately the same linear regression line (as well as nearly identical means, standard deviations, and correlations) but are graphically very different. This illustrates the pitfalls of relying solely on a fitted model to understand the relationship between variables.
⯁ The result of fitting a set of data points with a quadratic function:
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🥇 This is the world’s first RSI indicator with: Linear Regression for Forecasting 🥇_______________________________________________________________________
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🔮 Linear Regression: PineScript Technical Parameters 🔮
_________________________________________________
Forecast Types:
• Flat: Assumes prices will remain the same.
• Linreg: Makes a 'Linear Regression' forecast for n periods.
Technical Information:
ta.linreg (built-in function)
Linear regression curve. A line that best fits the specified prices over a user-defined time period. It is calculated using the least squares method. The result of this function is calculated using the formula: linreg = intercept + slope * (length - 1 - offset), where intercept and slope are the values calculated using the least squares method on the source series.
Syntax:
• Function: ta.linreg()
Parameters:
• source: Source price series.
• length: Number of bars (period).
• offset: Offset.
• return: Linear regression curve.
This function has been cleverly applied to the RSI, making it capable of projecting future values based on past statistical trends.
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⯁ WHAT IS THE RSI❓
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a technical analysis indicator developed by J. Welles Wilder. It measures the magnitude of recent price movements to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions in a market. The RSI is an oscillator that ranges from 0 to 100 and is commonly used to identify potential reversal points, as well as the strength of a trend.
⯁ HOW TO USE THE RSI❓
The RSI is calculated based on average gains and losses over a specified period (usually 14 periods). It is plotted on a scale from 0 to 100 and includes three main zones:
• Overbought: When the RSI is above 70, indicating that the asset may be overbought.
• Oversold: When the RSI is below 30, indicating that the asset may be oversold.
• Neutral Zone: Between 30 and 70, where there is no clear signal of overbought or oversold conditions.
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⯁ ENTRY CONDITIONS
The conditions below are fully flexible and allow for complete customization of the signal.
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🔹 CONDITIONS TO BUY 📈
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• Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars .
• Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND or OR .
📈 RSI Conditions:
🔹 RSI > Upper
🔹 RSI < Upper
🔹 RSI > Lower
🔹 RSI < Lower
🔹 RSI > Middle
🔹 RSI < Middle
🔹 RSI > MA
🔹 RSI < MA
📈 MA Conditions:
🔹 MA > Upper
🔹 MA < Upper
🔹 MA > Lower
🔹 MA < Lower
📈 Crossovers:
🔹 RSI (Crossover) Upper
🔹 RSI (Crossunder) Upper
🔹 RSI (Crossover) Lower
🔹 RSI (Crossunder) Lower
🔹 RSI (Crossover) Middle
🔹 RSI (Crossunder) Middle
🔹 RSI (Crossover) MA
🔹 RSI (Crossunder) MA
🔹 MA (Crossover) Upper
🔹 MA (Crossunder) Upper
🔹 MA (Crossover) Lower
🔹 MA (Crossunder) Lower
📈 RSI Divergences:
🔹 RSI Divergence Bull
🔹 RSI Divergence Bear
📈 RSI Forecast:
🔮 RSI (Crossover) MA Forecast
🔮 RSI (Crossunder) MA Forecast
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🔸 CONDITIONS TO SELL 📉
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• Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars .
• Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND or OR .
📉 RSI Conditions:
🔸 RSI > Upper
🔸 RSI < Upper
🔸 RSI > Lower
🔸 RSI < Lower
🔸 RSI > Middle
🔸 RSI < Middle
🔸 RSI > MA
🔸 RSI < MA
📉 MA Conditions:
🔸 MA > Upper
🔸 MA < Upper
🔸 MA > Lower
🔸 MA < Lower
📉 Crossovers:
🔸 RSI (Crossover) Upper
🔸 RSI (Crossunder) Upper
🔸 RSI (Crossover) Lower
🔸 RSI (Crossunder) Lower
🔸 RSI (Crossover) Middle
🔸 RSI (Crossunder) Middle
🔸 RSI (Crossover) MA
🔸 RSI (Crossunder) MA
🔸 MA (Crossover) Upper
🔸 MA (Crossunder) Upper
🔸 MA (Crossover) Lower
🔸 MA (Crossunder) Lower
📉 RSI Divergences:
🔸 RSI Divergence Bull
🔸 RSI Divergence Bear
📉 RSI Forecast:
🔮 RSI (Crossover) MA Forecast
🔮 RSI (Crossunder) MA Forecast
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🤖 AUTOMATION 🤖
• You can automate the BUY and SELL signals of this indicator.
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⯁ UNIQUE FEATURES
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Linear Regression: (Forecast)
Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars
Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND/OR
Condition Table: BUY/SELL
Condition Labels: BUY/SELL
Plot Labels in the Graph Above: BUY/SELL
Automate and Monitor Signals/Alerts: BUY/SELL
Linear Regression (Forecast)
Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars
Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND/OR
Condition Table: BUY/SELL
Condition Labels: BUY/SELL
Plot Labels in the Graph Above: BUY/SELL
Automate and Monitor Signals/Alerts: BUY/SELL
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📜 SCRIPT : RSI Forecast
🎴 Art by : @Titans_Invest & @DiFlip
👨💻 Dev by : @Titans_Invest & @DiFlip
🎑 Titans Invest — The Wizards Without Gloves 🧤
✨ Enjoy!
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o Mission 🗺
• Inspire Traders to manifest Magic in the Market.
o Vision 𐓏
• To elevate collective Energy 𐓷𐓏
Double RSI OscillatorThe Double RSI Oscillator
Hello Gs,
I came back from the dead and tried to see what a little tweak to RSI could do, and I think it is quite interesting and might be worth checking out.
Warning:
This indicator has lots of false signals unfortunatly
How does the DRSI Oscillator work?
Very simple, the DRSI oscillator at the very base is just 2 RSIs that should smooth each other out, making a smoother trend signal generation for trend analysis. One RSI is set to have lower values, by considering the lowest point of the price, and one RSI is set to have higher values using pretty much the same thing. The trend changes from positive to negative if RSI with higher values crosses negative treshhold, and from negative to positive if RSI with lower value crosses positive treshhold. On top of this I added some additional settings to smooth or speed it further, if these were a good idea, I guess only time will tell :D.
Settings
Here is a guide of what setting changes what and how it might be suitable for you:
RSI Optimism length: length of the RSI with higher values (higher values will be better for longer term, lower for medium term)
RSI Pesimism length: length of the RSI with lower values (higher values will be better for longer term, lower for medium term)
Positive treshhold: The value RSI pesimism needs to pass in order to change trends (in case of using RSI avg. the value the average needs to pass), making this higher can give you faster signals, but expect more false ones
Negative treshholds: The value RSI optimism needs to pass in order to change trends (in case of using RSI avg. the value the average needs to pass), lowering this can give you faster signals, but expect more false ones
Smoothing type: Select the type of smoothing (or none) to smooth your signals as you want, this one you need to play around with.
Smoothing length: The length of your smoothing method (if none is selected it wont change anything)
Use RSI average instead: self-explanatory, go figure
Above/Below Mean Trend: Changes the way trend logic works
Why consider using this indicator?
The DRSI Oscillator is a tool that has huge flexibility (due to tons of settings that base RSI doesnt, like trend treshholds), and is smoother allowing traders and investors to get high quality or high speed signals, allowing great entries and exits
Dow Theory Trend StrategyDow Theory Trend Strategy (Pine Script)
Overview
This Pine Script implements a trading strategy based on the core principles of Dow Theory. It visually identifies trends (uptrend, downtrend) by analyzing pivot highs and lows and executes trades when the trend direction changes. This script is an improved version that features refined trend determination logic and strategy implementation.
Core Concept: Dow Theory
The script uses a fundamental Dow Theory concept for trend identification:
Uptrend: Characterized by a series of Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL).
Downtrend: Characterized by a series of Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL).
How it Works
Pivot Point Detection:
It uses the built-in ta.pivothigh() and ta.pivotlow() functions to identify significant swing points (potential highs and lows) in the price action.
The pivotLookback input determines the number of bars to the left and right required to confirm a pivot. Note that this introduces a natural lag (equal to pivotLookback bars) before a pivot is confirmed.
Improved Trend Determination:
The script stores the last two confirmed pivot highs and the last two confirmed pivot lows.
An Uptrend (trendDirection = 1) is confirmed only when the latest pivot high is higher than the previous one (HH) AND the latest pivot low is higher than the previous one (HL).
A Downtrend (trendDirection = -1) is confirmed only when the latest pivot high is lower than the previous one (LH) AND the latest pivot low is lower than the previous one (LL).
Key Improvement: If neither a clear uptrend nor a clear downtrend is confirmed based on the latest pivots, the script maintains the previous trend state (trendDirection := trendDirection ). This differs from simpler implementations that might switch to a neutral/range state (e.g., trendDirection = 0) more frequently. This approach aims for smoother trend following, acknowledging that trends often persist through periods without immediate new HH/HL or LH/LL confirmations.
Trend Change Detection:
The script monitors changes in the trendDirection variable.
changedToUp becomes true when the trend shifts to an Uptrend (from Downtrend or initial state).
changedToDown becomes true when the trend shifts to a Downtrend (from Uptrend or initial state).
Visualizations
Background Color: The chart background is colored to reflect the currently identified trend:
Blue: Uptrend (trendDirection == 1)
Red: Downtrend (trendDirection == -1)
Gray: Initial state or undetermined (trendDirection == 0)
Pivot Points (Optional): Small triangles (shape.triangledown/shape.triangleup) can be displayed above pivot highs and below pivot lows if showPivotPoints is enabled.
Trend Change Signals (Optional): Labels ("▲ UP" / "▼ DOWN") can be displayed when a trend change is confirmed (changedToUp / changedToDown) if showTrendChange is enabled. These visually mark the potential entry points for the strategy.
Strategy Logic
Entry Conditions:
Enters a long position (strategy.long) using strategy.entry("L", ...) when changedToUp becomes true.
Enters a short position (strategy.short) using strategy.entry("S", ...) when changedToDown becomes true.
Position Management: The script uses strategy.entry(), which automatically handles position reversal. If the strategy is long and a short signal occurs, strategy.entry() will close the long position and open a new short one (and vice-versa).
Inputs
pivotLookback: The number of bars on each side to confirm a pivot high/low. Higher values mean pivots are confirmed later but may be more significant.
showPivotPoints: Toggle visibility of pivot point markers.
showTrendChange: Toggle visibility of the trend change labels ("▲ UP" / "▼ DOWN").
Key Improvements from Original
Smoother Trend Logic: The trend state persists unless a confirmed reversal pattern (opposite HH/HL or LH/LL) occurs, reducing potential whipsaws in choppy markets compared to logic that frequently resets to neutral.
Strategy Implementation: Converted from a pure indicator to a strategy capable of executing backtests and potentially live trades based on the Dow Theory trend changes.
Disclaimer
Dow Theory signals are inherently lagging due to the nature of pivot confirmation.
The effectiveness of the strategy depends heavily on the market conditions and the chosen pivotLookback setting.
This script serves as a basic template. Always perform thorough backtesting and implement proper risk management (e.g., stop-loss, take-profit, position sizing) before considering any live trading.
Casa_UtilsLibrary "Casa_Utils"
A collection of convenience and helper functions for indicator and library authors on TradingView
formatNumber(num)
My version of format number that doesn't have so many decimal places...
Parameters:
num (float) : The number to be formatted
Returns: The formatted number
getDateString(timestamp)
Convenience function returns timestamp in yyyy/MM/dd format.
Parameters:
timestamp (int) : The timestamp to stringify
Returns: The date string
getDateTimeString(timestamp)
Convenience function returns timestamp in yyyy/MM/dd hh:mm format.
Parameters:
timestamp (int) : The timestamp to stringify
Returns: The date string
getInsideBarCount()
Gets the number of inside bars for the current chart. Can also be passed to request.security to get the same for different timeframes.
Returns: The # of inside bars on the chart right now.
getLabelStyleFromString(styleString, acceptGivenIfNoMatch)
Tradingview doesn't give you a nice way to put the label styles into a dropdown for configuration settings. So, I specify them in the following format: "Center", "Left", "Lower Left", "Lower Right", "Right", "Up", "Upper Left", "Upper Right", "Plain Text", "No Labels". This function takes care of converting those custom strings back to the ones expected by tradingview scripts.
Parameters:
styleString (string)
acceptGivenIfNoMatch (bool) : If no match for styleString is found and this is true, the function will return styleString, otherwise it will return tradingview's preferred default
Returns: The string expected by tradingview functions
getTime(hourNumber, minuteNumber)
Given an hour number and minute number, adds them together and returns the sum. To be used by getLevelBetweenTimes when fetching specific price levels during a time window on the day.
Parameters:
hourNumber (int) : The hour number
minuteNumber (int) : The minute number
Returns: The sum of all the minutes
getHighAndLowBetweenTimes(start, end)
Given a start and end time, returns the high or low price during that time window.
Parameters:
start (int) : The timestamp to start with (# of seconds)
end (int) : The timestamp to end with (# of seconds)
Returns: The high or low value
getPremarketHighsAndLows()
Returns an expression that can be used by request.security to fetch the premarket high & low levels in a tuple.
Returns: (tuple)
getAfterHoursHighsAndLows()
Returns an expression that can be used by request.security to fetch the after hours high & low levels in a tuple.
Returns: (tuple)
getOvernightHighsAndLows()
Returns an expression that can be used by request.security to fetch the overnight high & low levels in a tuple.
Returns: (tuple)
getNonRthHighsAndLows()
Returns an expression that can be used by request.security to fetch the high & low levels for premarket, after hours and overnight in a tuple.
Returns: (tuple)
getLineStyleFromString(styleString, acceptGivenIfNoMatch)
Tradingview doesn't give you a nice way to put the line styles into a dropdown for configuration settings. So, I specify them in the following format: "Solid", "Dashed", "Dotted", "None/Hidden". This function takes care of converting those custom strings back to the ones expected by tradingview scripts.
Parameters:
styleString (string) : Plain english (or TV Standard) version of the style string
acceptGivenIfNoMatch (bool) : If no match for styleString is found and this is true, the function will return styleString, otherwise it will return tradingview's preferred default
Returns: The string expected by tradingview functions
getPercentFromPrice(price)
Get the % the current price is away from the given price.
Parameters:
price (float)
Returns: The % the current price is away from the given price.
getPositionFromString(position)
Tradingview doesn't give you a nice way to put the positions into a dropdown for configuration settings. So, I specify them in the following format: "Top Left", "Top Center", "Top Right", "Middle Left", "Middle Center", "Middle Right", "Bottom Left", "Bottom Center", "Bottom Right". This function takes care of converting those custom strings back to the ones expected by tradingview scripts.
Parameters:
position (string) : Plain english position string
Returns: The string expected by tradingview functions
getRsiAvgsExpression(rsiLength)
Call request.security with this as the expression to get the average up/down values that can be used with getRsiPrice (below) to calculate the price level where the supplied RSI level would be reached.
Parameters:
rsiLength (simple int) : The length of the RSI requested.
Returns: A tuple containing the avgUp and avgDown values required by the getRsiPrice function.
getRsiPrice(rsiLevel, rsiLength, avgUp, avgDown)
use the values returned by getRsiAvgsExpression() to calculate the price level when the provided RSI level would be reached.
Parameters:
rsiLevel (float) : The RSI level to find price at.
rsiLength (int) : The length of the RSI to calculate.
avgUp (float) : The average move up of RSI.
avgDown (float) : The average move down of RSI.
Returns: The price level where the provided RSI level would be met.
getSizeFromString(sizeString)
Tradingview doesn't give you a nice way to put the sizes into a dropdown for configuration settings. So, I specify them in the following format: "Auto", "Huge", "Large", "Normal", "Small", "Tiny". This function takes care of converting those custom strings back to the ones expected by tradingview scripts.
Parameters:
sizeString (string) : Plain english size string
Returns: The string expected by tradingview functions
getTimeframeOfChart()
Get the timeframe of the current chart for display
Returns: The string of the current chart timeframe
getTimeNowPlusOffset(candleOffset)
Helper function for drawings that use xloc.bar_time to help you know the time offset if you want to place the end of the drawing out into the future. This determines the time-size of one candle and then returns a time n candleOffsets into the future.
Parameters:
candleOffset (int) : The number of items to find singular/plural for.
Returns: The future time
getVolumeBetweenTimes(start, end)
Given a start and end time, returns the sum of all volume across bars during that time window.
Parameters:
start (int) : The timestamp to start with (# of seconds)
end (int) : The timestamp to end with (# of seconds)
Returns: The volume
isToday()
Returns true if the current bar occurs on today's date.
Returns: True if current bar is today
padLabelString(labelText, labelStyle)
Pads a label string so that it appears properly in or not in a label. When label.style_none is used, this will make sure it is left-aligned instead of center-aligned. When any other type is used, it adds a single space to the right so there is padding against the right end of the label.
Parameters:
labelText (string) : The string to be padded
labelStyle (string) : The style of the label being padded for.
Returns: The padded string
plural(num, singular, plural)
Helps format a string for plural/singular. By default, if you only provide num, it will just return "s" for plural and nothing for singular (eg. plural(numberOfCats)). But you can optionally specify the full singular/plural words for more complicated nomenclature (eg. plural(numberOfBenches, 'bench', 'benches'))
Parameters:
num (int) : The number of items to find singular/plural for.
singular (string) : The string to return if num is singular. Defaults to an empty string.
plural (string) : The string to return if num is plural. Defaults to 's' so you can just add 's' to the end of a word.
Returns: The singular or plural provided strings depending on the num provided.
timeframeInSeconds(timeframe)
Get the # of seconds in a given timeframe. Tradingview's timeframe.in_seconds() expects a simple string, and we often need to use series string, so this is an alternative to get you the value you need.
Parameters:
timeframe (string)
Returns: The number of secondsof that timeframe
timeframeOfChart()
Convert a timeframe string to a consistent standard.
Returns: The standard format for the string, or the unchanged value if it is unknown.
timeframeToString(timeframe)
Convert a timeframe string to a consistent standard.
Parameters:
timeframe (string)
Returns: (string) The standard format for the string, or the unchanged value if it is unknown.
stringToTimeframe(strTimeframe)
Convert an english-friendly timeframe string to a value that can be used by request.security. Specifically, this corrects hour strings (eg. 4h) to their numeric "minute" equivalent (eg. 240)
Parameters:
strTimeframe (string)
Returns: (string) The standard format for the string, or the unchanged value if it is unknown.
getPriceLabel(price, labelOffset, labelStyle, labelSize, labelColor, textColor)
Defines a label for the end of a price level line.
Parameters:
price (float) : The price level to render the label at.
labelOffset (int) : The number of candles to place the label to the right of price.
labelStyle (string) : A plain english string as defined in getLabelStyleFromString.
labelSize (string) : The size of the label.
labelColor (color) : The color of the label.
textColor (color) : The color of the label text (defaults to #ffffff)
Returns: The label that was created.
setPriceLabel(label, labelName, price, labelOffset, labelTemplate, labelStyle, labelColor, textColor)
Updates the label position & text based on price changes.
Parameters:
label (label) : The label to update.
labelName (string) : The name of the price level to be placed on the label.
price (float) : The price level to render the label at.
labelOffset (int) : The number of candles to place the label to the right of price.
labelTemplate (string) : The str.format template to use for the label. Defaults to: '{0}: {1} {2}{3,number,#.##}%' which means '{price}: {labelName} {+/-}{percentFromPrice}%'
labelStyle (string)
labelColor (color)
textColor (color)
getPriceLabelLine(price, labelOffset, labelColor, lineWidth)
Defines a line that will stretch from the plot line to the label.
Parameters:
price (float) : The price level to render the label at.
labelOffset (int) : The number of candles to place the label to the right of price.
labelColor (color)
lineWidth (int) : The width of the line. Defaults to 1.
setPriceLabelLine(line, price, labelOffset, lastTime, lineColor)
Updates the price label line based on price changes.
Parameters:
line (line) : The line to update.
price (float) : The price level to render the label at.
labelOffset (int) : The number of candles to place the label to the right of price.
lastTime (int) : The last time that the line should stretch from. Defaults to time.
lineColor (color)
Request█ OVERVIEW
This library is a tool for Pine Script™ programmers that consolidates access to a wide range of lesser-known data feeds available on TradingView, including metrics from the FRED database, FINRA short sale volume, open interest, and COT data. The functions in this library simplify requests for these data feeds, making them easier to retrieve and use in custom scripts.
█ CONCEPTS
Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) is a comprehensive online database curated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. It provides free access to extensive economic and financial data from U.S. and international sources. FRED includes numerous economic indicators such as GDP, inflation, employment, and interest rates. Additionally, it provides financial market data, regional statistics, and international metrics such as exchange rates and trade balances.
Sourced from reputable organizations, including U.S. government agencies, international institutions, and other public and private entities, FRED enables users to analyze over 825,000 time series, download their data in various formats, and integrate their information into analytical tools and programming workflows.
On TradingView, FRED data is available from ticker identifiers with the "FRED:" prefix. Users can search for FRED symbols in the "Symbol Search" window, and Pine scripts can retrieve data for these symbols via `request.*()` function calls.
FINRA Short Sale Volume
FINRA (the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority) is a non-governmental organization that supervises and regulates U.S. broker-dealers and securities professionals. Its primary aim is to protect investors and ensure integrity and transparency in financial markets.
FINRA's Short Sale Volume data provides detailed information about daily short-selling activity across U.S. equity markets. This data tracks the volume of short sales reported to FINRA's trade reporting facilities (TRFs), including shares sold on FINRA-regulated Alternative Trading Systems (ATSs) and over-the-counter (OTC) markets, offering transparent access to short-selling information not typically available from exchanges. This data helps market participants, researchers, and regulators monitor trends in short-selling and gain insights into bearish sentiment, hedging strategies, and potential market manipulation. Investors often use this data alongside other metrics to assess stock performance, liquidity, and overall trading activity.
It is important to note that FINRA's Short Sale Volume data does not consolidate short sale information from public exchanges and excludes trading activity that is not publicly disseminated.
TradingView provides ticker identifiers for requesting Short Sale Volume data with the format "FINRA:_SHORT_VOLUME", where "" is a supported U.S. equities symbol (e.g., "AAPL").
Open Interest (OI)
Open interest is a cornerstone indicator of market activity and sentiment in derivatives markets such as options or futures. In contrast to volume, which measures the number of contracts opened or closed within a period, OI measures the number of outstanding contracts that are not yet settled. This distinction makes OI a more robust indicator of how money flows through derivatives, offering meaningful insights into liquidity, market interest, and trends. Many traders and investors analyze OI alongside volume and price action to gain an enhanced perspective on market dynamics and reinforce trading decisions.
TradingView offers many ticker identifiers for requesting OI data with the format "_OI", where "" represents a derivative instrument's ticker ID (e.g., "COMEX:GC1!").
Commitment of Traders (COT)
Commitment of Traders data provides an informative weekly breakdown of the aggregate positions held by various market participants, including commercial hedgers, non-commercial speculators, and small traders, in the U.S. derivative markets. Tallied and managed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) , these reports provide traders and analysts with detailed insight into an asset's open interest and help them assess the actions of various market players. COT data is valuable for gaining a deeper understanding of market dynamics, sentiment, trends, and liquidity, which helps traders develop informed trading strategies.
TradingView has numerous ticker identifiers that provide access to time series containing data for various COT metrics. To learn about COT ticker IDs and how they work, see our LibraryCOT publication.
█ USING THE LIBRARY
Common function characteristics
• This library's functions construct ticker IDs with valid formats based on their specified parameters, then use them as the `symbol` argument in request.security() to retrieve data from the specified context.
• Most of these functions automatically select the timeframe of a data request because the data feeds are not available for all timeframes.
• All the functions have two overloads. The first overload of each function uses values with the "simple" qualifier to define the requested context, meaning the context does not change after the first script execution. The second accepts "series" values, meaning it can request data from different contexts across executions.
• The `gaps` parameter in most of these functions specifies whether the returned data is `na` when a new value is unavailable for request. By default, its value is `false`, meaning the call returns the last retrieved data when no new data is available.
• The `repaint` parameter in applicable functions determines whether the request can fetch the latest unconfirmed values from a higher timeframe on realtime bars, which might repaint after the script restarts. If `false`, the function only returns confirmed higher-timeframe values to avoid repainting. The default value is `true`.
`fred()`
The `fred()` function retrieves the most recent value of a specified series from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database. With this function, programmers can easily fetch macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP and unemployment rates, and use them directly in their scripts.
How it works
The function's `fredCode` parameter accepts a "string" representing the unique identifier of a specific FRED series. Examples include "GDP" for the "Gross Domestic Product" series and "UNRATE" for the "Unemployment Rate" series. Over 825,000 codes are available. To access codes for available series, search the FRED website .
The function adds the "FRED:" prefix to the specified `fredCode` to construct a valid FRED ticker ID (e.g., "FRED:GDP"), which it uses in request.security() to retrieve the series data.
Example Usage
This line of code requests the latest value from the Gross Domestic Product series and assigns the returned value to a `gdpValue` variable:
float gdpValue = fred("GDP")
`finraShortSaleVolume()`
The `finraShortSaleVolume()` function retrieves EOD data from a FINRA Short Sale Volume series. Programmers can call this function to retrieve short-selling information for equities listed on supported exchanges, namely NASDAQ, NYSE, and NYSE ARCA.
How it works
The `symbol` parameter determines which symbol's short sale volume information is retrieved by the function. If the value is na , the function requests short sale volume data for the chart's symbol. The argument can be the name of the symbol from a supported exchange (e.g., "AAPL") or a ticker ID with an exchange prefix ("NASDAQ:AAPL"). If the `symbol` contains an exchange prefix, it must be one of the following: "NASDAQ", "NYSE", "AMEX", or "BATS".
The function constructs a ticker ID in the format "FINRA:ticker_SHORT_VOLUME", where "ticker" is the symbol name without the exchange prefix (e.g., "AAPL"). It then uses the ticker ID in request.security() to retrieve the available data.
Example Usage
This line of code retrieves short sale volume for the chart's symbol and assigns the result to a `shortVolume` variable:
float shortVolume = finraShortSaleVolume(syminfo.tickerid)
This example requests short sale volume for the "NASDAQ:AAPL" symbol, irrespective of the current chart:
float shortVolume = finraShortSaleVolume("NASDAQ:AAPL")
`openInterestFutures()` and `openInterestCrypto()`
The `openInterestFutures()` function retrieves EOD open interest (OI) data for futures contracts. The `openInterestCrypto()` function provides more granular OI data for cryptocurrency contracts.
How they work
The `openInterestFutures()` function retrieves EOD closing OI information. Its design is focused primarily on retrieving OI data for futures, as only EOD OI data is available for these instruments. If the chart uses an intraday timeframe, the function requests data from the "1D" timeframe. Otherwise, it uses the chart's timeframe.
The `openInterestCrypto()` function retrieves opening, high, low, and closing OI data for a cryptocurrency contract on a specified timeframe. Unlike `openInterest()`, this function can also retrieve granular data from intraday timeframes.
Both functions contain a `symbol` parameter that determines the symbol for which the calls request OI data. The functions construct a valid OI ticker ID from the chosen symbol by appending "_OI" to the end (e.g., "CME:ES1!_OI").
The `openInterestFutures()` function requests and returns a two-element tuple containing the futures instrument's EOD closing OI and a "bool" condition indicating whether OI is rising.
The `openInterestCrypto()` function requests and returns a five-element tuple containing the cryptocurrency contract's opening, high, low, and closing OI, and a "bool" condition indicating whether OI is rising.
Example usage
This code line calls `openInterest()` to retrieve EOD OI and the OI rising condition for a futures symbol on the chart, assigning the values to two variables in a tuple:
= openInterestFutures(syminfo.tickerid)
This line retrieves the EOD OI data for "CME:ES1!", irrespective of the current chart's symbol:
= openInterestFutures("CME:ES1!")
This example uses `openInterestCrypto()` to retrieve OHLC OI data and the OI rising condition for a cryptocurrency contract on the chart, sampled at the chart's timeframe. It assigns the returned values to five variables in a tuple:
= openInterestCrypto(syminfo.tickerid, timeframe.period)
This call retrieves OI OHLC and rising information for "BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P" on the "1D" timeframe:
= openInterestCrypto("BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P", "1D")
`commitmentOfTraders()`
The `commitmentOfTraders()` function retrieves data from the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This function significantly simplifies the COT request process, making it easier for programmers to access and utilize the available data.
How It Works
This function's parameters determine different parts of a valid ticker ID for retrieving COT data, offering a streamlined alternative to constructing complex COT ticker IDs manually. The `metricName`, `metricDirection`, and `includeOptions` parameters are required. They specify the name of the reported metric, the direction, and whether it includes information from options contracts.
The function also includes several optional parameters. The `CFTCCode` parameter allows programmers to request data for a specific report code. If unspecified, the function requests data based on the chart symbol's root prefix, base currency, or quoted currency, depending on the `mode` argument. The call can specify the report type ("Legacy", "Disaggregated", or "Financial") and metric type ("All", "Old", or "Other") with the `typeCOT` and `metricType` parameters.
Explore the CFTC website to find valid report codes for specific assets. To find detailed information about the metrics included in the reports and their meanings, see the CFTC's Explanatory Notes .
View the function's documentation below for detailed explanations of its parameters. For in-depth information about COT ticker IDs and more advanced functionality, refer to our previously published COT library .
Available metrics
Different COT report types provide different metrics . The tables below list all available metrics for each type and their applicable directions:
+------------------------------+------------------------+
| Legacy (COT) Metric Names | Directions |
+------------------------------+------------------------+
| Open Interest | No direction |
| Noncommercial Positions | Long, Short, Spreading |
| Commercial Positions | Long, Short |
| Total Reportable Positions | Long, Short |
| Nonreportable Positions | Long, Short |
| Traders Total | No direction |
| Traders Noncommercial | Long, Short, Spreading |
| Traders Commercial | Long, Short |
| Traders Total Reportable | Long, Short |
| Concentration Gross LT 4 TDR | Long, Short |
| Concentration Gross LT 8 TDR | Long, Short |
| Concentration Net LT 4 TDR | Long, Short |
| Concentration Net LT 8 TDR | Long, Short |
+------------------------------+------------------------+
+-----------------------------------+------------------------+
| Disaggregated (COT2) Metric Names | Directions |
+-----------------------------------+------------------------+
| Open Interest | No Direction |
| Producer Merchant Positions | Long, Short |
| Swap Positions | Long, Short, Spreading |
| Managed Money Positions | Long, Short, Spreading |
| Other Reportable Positions | Long, Short, Spreading |
| Total Reportable Positions | Long, Short |
| Nonreportable Positions | Long, Short |
| Traders Total | No Direction |
| Traders Producer Merchant | Long, Short |
| Traders Swap | Long, Short, Spreading |
| Traders Managed Money | Long, Short, Spreading |
| Traders Other Reportable | Long, Short, Spreading |
| Traders Total Reportable | Long, Short |
| Concentration Gross LE 4 TDR | Long, Short |
| Concentration Gross LE 8 TDR | Long, Short |
| Concentration Net LE 4 TDR | Long, Short |
| Concentration Net LE 8 TDR | Long, Short |
+-----------------------------------+------------------------+
+-------------------------------+------------------------+
| Financial (COT3) Metric Names | Directions |
+-------------------------------+------------------------+
| Open Interest | No Direction |
| Dealer Positions | Long, Short, Spreading |
| Asset Manager Positions | Long, Short, Spreading |
| Leveraged Funds Positions | Long, Short, Spreading |
| Other Reportable Positions | Long, Short, Spreading |
| Total Reportable Positions | Long, Short |
| Nonreportable Positions | Long, Short |
| Traders Total | No Direction |
| Traders Dealer | Long, Short, Spreading |
| Traders Asset Manager | Long, Short, Spreading |
| Traders Leveraged Funds | Long, Short, Spreading |
| Traders Other Reportable | Long, Short, Spreading |
| Traders Total Reportable | Long, Short |
| Concentration Gross LE 4 TDR | Long, Short |
| Concentration Gross LE 8 TDR | Long, Short |
| Concentration Net LE 4 TDR | Long, Short |
| Concentration Net LE 8 TDR | Long, Short |
+-------------------------------+------------------------+
Example usage
This code line retrieves "Noncommercial Positions (Long)" data, without options information, from the "Legacy" report for the chart symbol's root, base currency, or quote currency:
float nonCommercialLong = commitmentOfTraders("Noncommercial Positions", "Long", false)
This example retrieves "Managed Money Positions (Short)" data, with options included, from the "Disaggregated" report:
float disaggregatedData = commitmentOfTraders("Managed Money Positions", "Short", true, "", "Disaggregated")
█ NOTES
• This library uses dynamic requests , allowing dynamic ("series") arguments for the parameters defining the context (ticker ID, timeframe, etc.) of a `request.*()` function call. With this feature, a single `request.*()` call instance can flexibly retrieve data from different feeds across historical executions. Additionally, scripts can use such calls in the local scopes of loops, conditional structures, and even exported library functions, as demonstrated in this script. All scripts coded in Pine Script™ v6 have dynamic requests enabled by default. To learn more about the behaviors and limitations of this feature, see the Dynamic requests section of the Pine Script™ User Manual.
• The library's example code offers a simple demonstration of the exported functions. The script retrieves available data using the function specified by the "Series type" input. The code requests a FRED series or COT (Legacy), FINRA Short Sale Volume, or Open Interest series for the chart's symbol with specific parameters, then plots the retrieved data as a step-line with diamond markers.
Look first. Then leap.
█ EXPORTED FUNCTIONS
This library exports the following functions:
fred(fredCode, gaps)
Requests a value from a specified Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series. FRED is a comprehensive source that hosts numerous U.S. economic datasets. To explore available FRED datasets and codes, search for specific categories or keywords at fred.stlouisfed.org Calls to this function count toward a script's `request.*()` call limit.
Parameters:
fredCode (series string) : The unique identifier of the FRED series. The function uses the value to create a valid ticker ID for retrieving FRED data in the format `"FRED:fredCode"`. For example, `"GDP"` refers to the "Gross Domestic Product" series ("FRED:GDP"), and `"GFDEBTN"` refers to the "Federal Debt: Total Public Debt" series ("FRED:GFDEBTN").
gaps (simple bool) : Optional. If `true`, the function returns a non-na value only when a new value is available from the requested context. If `false`, the function returns the latest retrieved value when new data is unavailable. The default is `false`.
Returns: (float) The value from the requested FRED series.
finraShortSaleVolume(symbol, gaps, repaint)
Requests FINRA daily short sale volume data for a specified symbol from one of the following exchanges: NASDAQ, NYSE, NYSE ARCA. If the chart uses an intraday timeframe, the function requests data from the "1D" timeframe. Otherwise, it uses the chart's timeframe. Calls to this function count toward a script's `request.*()` call limit.
Parameters:
symbol (series string) : The symbol for which to request short sale volume data. If the specified value contains an exchange prefix, it must be one of the following: "NASDAQ", "NYSE", "AMEX", "BATS".
gaps (simple bool) : Optional. If `true`, the function returns a non-na value only when a new value is available from the requested context. If `false`, the function returns the latest retrieved value when new data is unavailable. The default is `false`.
repaint (simple bool) : Optional. If `true` and the chart's timeframe is intraday, the value requested on realtime bars may change its time offset after the script restarts its executions. If `false`, the function returns the last confirmed period's values to avoid repainting. The default is `true`.
Returns: (float) The short sale volume for the specified symbol or the chart's symbol.
openInterestFutures(symbol, gaps, repaint)
Requests EOD open interest (OI) and OI rising information for a valid futures symbol. If the chart uses an intraday timeframe, the function requests data from the "1D" timeframe. Otherwise, it uses the chart's timeframe. Calls to this function count toward a script's `request.*()` call limit.
Parameters:
symbol (series string) : The symbol for which to request open interest data.
gaps (simple bool) : Optional. If `true`, the function returns non-na values only when new values are available from the requested context. If `false`, the function returns the latest retrieved values when new data is unavailable. The default is `false`.
repaint (simple bool) : Optional. If `true` and the chart's timeframe is intraday, the value requested on realtime bars may change its time offset after the script restarts its executions. If `false`, the function returns the last confirmed period's values to avoid repainting. The default is `true`.
Returns: ( ) A tuple containing the following values:
- The closing OI value for the symbol.
- `true` if the closing OI is above the previous period's value, `false` otherwise.
openInterestCrypto(symbol, timeframe, gaps, repaint)
Requests opening, high, low, and closing open interest (OI) data and OI rising information for a valid cryptocurrency contract on a specified timeframe. Calls to this function count toward a script's `request.*()` call limit.
Parameters:
symbol (series string) : The symbol for which to request open interest data.
timeframe (series string) : The timeframe of the data request. If the timeframe is lower than the chart's timeframe, it causes a runtime error.
gaps (simple bool) : Optional. If `true`, the function returns non-na values only when new values are available from the requested context. If `false`, the function returns the latest retrieved values when new data is unavailable. The default is `false`.
repaint (simple bool) : Optional. If `true` and the `timeframe` represents a higher timeframe, the function returns unconfirmed values from the timeframe on realtime bars, which repaint when the script restarts its executions. If `false`, it returns only confirmed higher-timeframe values to avoid repainting. The default is `true`.
Returns: ( ) A tuple containing the following values:
- The opening, high, low, and closing OI values for the symbol, respectively.
- `true` if the closing OI is above the previous period's value, `false` otherwise.
commitmentOfTraders(metricName, metricDirection, includeOptions, CFTCCode, typeCOT, mode, metricType)
Requests Commitment of Traders (COT) data with specified parameters. This function provides a simplified way to access CFTC COT data available on TradingView. Calls to this function count toward a script's `request.*()` call limit. For more advanced tools and detailed information about COT data, see TradingView's LibraryCOT library.
Parameters:
metricName (series string) : One of the valid metric names listed in the library's documentation and source code.
metricDirection (series string) : Metric direction. Possible values are: "Long", "Short", "Spreading", and "No direction". Consult the library's documentation or code to see which direction values apply to the specified metric.
includeOptions (series bool) : If `true`, the COT symbol includes options information. Otherwise, it does not.
CFTCCode (series string) : Optional. The CFTC code for the asset. For example, wheat futures (root "ZW") have the code "001602". If one is not specified, the function will attempt to get a valid code for the chart symbol's root, base currency, or main currency.
typeCOT (series string) : Optional. The type of report to request. Possible values are: "Legacy", "Disaggregated", "Financial". The default is "Legacy".
mode (series string) : Optional. Specifies the information the function extracts from a symbol. Possible modes are:
- "Root": The function extracts the futures symbol's root prefix information (e.g., "ES" for "ESH2020").
- "Base currency": The function extracts the first currency from a currency pair (e.g., "EUR" for "EURUSD").
- "Currency": The function extracts the currency of the symbol's quoted values (e.g., "JPY" for "TSE:9984" or "USDJPY").
- "Auto": The function tries the first three modes (Root -> Base currency -> Currency) until it finds a match.
The default is "Auto". If the specified mode is not available for the symbol, it causes a runtime error.
metricType (series string) : Optional. The metric type. Possible values are: "All", "Old", "Other". The default is "All".
Returns: (float) The specified Commitment of Traders data series. If no data is available, it causes a runtime error.
Uptrick: Smart BoundariesThis script is an indicator that combines the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and Bollinger Bands to highlight potential points where price momentum and volatility may both be at extreme levels. Below is a detailed explanation of its components, how it calculates signals, and why these two indicators have been merged into one tool. This script is intended solely for educational purposes and for traders who want to explore the combined use of momentum and volatility measures. Please remember that no single indicator guarantees profitable results.
Purpose of This Script
This script is designed to serve as a concise, all-in-one tool for traders seeking to track both momentum and volatility extremes in real time. By overlaying RSI signals with Bollinger Band boundaries, it helps users quickly identify points on a chart where price movement may be highly stretched. The goal is to offer a clearer snapshot of potential overbought or oversold conditions without requiring two separate indicators. Additionally, its optional pyramiding feature enables users to manage how many times they initiate trades when signals repeat in the same direction. Through these combined functions, the script aims to streamline technical analysis by consolidating two popular measures—momentum via RSI and volatility via Bollinger Bands—into a single, manageable interface.
1. Why Combine RSI and Bollinger Bands
• RSI (Relative Strength Index): This is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes. It typically ranges between 0 and 100. Traders often watch for RSI crossing into “overbought” or “oversold” levels because it may indicate a potential shift in momentum.
• Bollinger Bands: These bands are plotted around a moving average, using a standard deviation multiplier to create an upper and lower boundary. They help illustrate how volatile the price has been relative to its recent average. When price moves outside these boundaries, some traders see it as a sign the price may be overstretched and could revert closer to the average.
Combining these two can be useful because it blends two different perspectives on market movement. RSI attempts to identify momentum extremes, while Bollinger Bands track volatility extremes. By looking for moments when both conditions agree, the script tries to highlight points where price might be unusually stretched in terms of both momentum and volatility.
2. How Signals Are Generated
• Buy Condition:
- RSI dips below a specified “oversold” level (for example, 30 by default).
- Price closes below the lower Bollinger Band.
When these occur together, the script draws a label indicating a potential bullish opportunity. The underlying reasoning is that momentum (RSI) suggests a stronger-than-usual sell-off, and price is also stretched below the lower Bollinger Band.
• Sell Condition:
- RSI rises above a specified “overbought” level (for example, 70 by default).
- Price closes above the upper Bollinger Band.
When these occur together, a label is plotted for a potential bearish opportunity. The rationale is that momentum (RSI) may be overheated, and the price is trading outside the top of its volatility range.
3. Pyramiding Logic and Trade Count Management
• Pyramiding refers to taking multiple positions in the same direction when signals keep firing. While some traders prefer just one position per signal, others like to scale into a trade if the market keeps pushing in their favor.
• This script uses variables that keep track of how many recent buy or sell signals have fired. If the count reaches a user-defined maximum, no more signals of that type will trigger additional labels. This protects traders from over-committing to one direction if the market conditions remain “extreme” for a prolonged period.
• If you disable the pyramiding feature, the script will only plot one label per side until the condition resets (i.e., until RSI and price conditions are no longer met).
4. Labels and Visual Feedback
• Whenever a buy or sell condition appears, the script plots a label directly on the chart:
- Buy labels under the price bar.
- Sell labels above the price bar.
These labels make it easier to review where both RSI and Bollinger Band conditions align. It can be helpful for visually scanning the chart to see if the signals show any patterns related to market reversals or trend continuations.
• The Bollinger Bands themselves are plotted so traders can see when the price is approaching or exceeding the upper or lower band. Watching the RSI and Bollinger Band plots simultaneously can give traders more context for each signal.
5. Originality and Usefulness
This script provides a distinct approach by merging two well-established concepts—RSI and Bollinger Bands—within a single framework, complemented by optional pyramiding controls. Rather than using each indicator separately, it attempts to uncover moments when momentum signals from RSI align with volatility extremes highlighted by Bollinger Bands. This combined perspective can aid in spotting areas of possible overextension in price. Additionally, the built-in pyramiding mechanism offers a method to manage multiple signals in the same direction, allowing users to adjust how aggressively they scale into trades. By integrating these elements together, the script aims to deliver a tool that caters to diverse trading styles while remaining straightforward to configure and interpret.
6. How to Use the Indicator
• Configure the Inputs:
- RSI Length (the lookback period used for the RSI calculation).
- RSI Overbought and Oversold Levels.
- Bollinger Bands Length and Multiplier (defines the moving average period and the degree of deviation).
- Option to reduce pyramiding.
• Set Alerts (Optional):
- You can create TradingView alerts for when these conditions occur, so you do not have to monitor the chart constantly. Choose the buy or sell alert conditions in your alert settings.
• Integration in a Trading Plan:
- This script alone is not a complete trading system. Consider combining it with other forms of analysis, such as support and resistance, volume profiles, or candlestick patterns. Thorough research, testing on historical data, and risk management are always recommended.
7. No Performance Guarantees
• This script does not promise any specific trading results. It is crucial to remember that no single indicator can accurately predict future market movements all the time. The script simply tries to highlight moments when two well-known indicators both point to an extreme condition.
• Actual trading decisions should factor in a range of market information, including personal risk tolerance and broader market conditions.
8. Purpose and Limitations
• Purpose:
- Provide a combined view of momentum (RSI) and volatility (Bollinger Bands) in a single script.
- Assist in spotting times when price may be at an extreme.
- Offer a configurable system for labeling potential buy or sell points based on these extremes.
• Limitations:
- Overbought and oversold conditions can persist for an extended period in trending markets.
- Bollinger Band breakouts do not always result in immediate reversals. Sometimes price keeps moving in the same direction.
- The script does not include a built-in exit strategy or risk management rules. Traders must handle these themselves.
Additional Disclosures
This script is published open-source and does not rely on any external or private libraries. It does not use lookahead methods or repaint signals; all calculations are performed on the current bar without referencing future data. Furthermore, the script is designed for standard candlestick or bar charts rather than non-standard chart types (e.g., Heikin Ashi, Renko). Traders should keep in mind that while the script can help locate potential momentum and volatility extremes, it does not include an exit strategy or account for factors like slippage or commission. All code comes from built-in Pine Script functions and standard formulas for RSI and Bollinger Bands. Anyone reviewing or modifying this script should exercise caution and incorporate proper risk management when applying it to their own trading.
Calculation Details
The script computes RSI by examining a user-defined number of prior bars (the RSI Length) and determining the average of up-moves relative to the average of down-moves over that period. This ratio is then scaled to a 0–100 range, so lower values typically indicate stronger downward momentum, while higher values suggest stronger upward momentum. In parallel, Bollinger Bands are generated by first calculating a simple moving average (SMA) of the closing price for the user-specified length. The script then measures the standard deviation of closing prices over the same period and multiplies it by the chosen factor (the Bollinger Bands Multiplier) to form the upper and lower boundaries around the SMA. These two measures are checked in tandem: if the RSI dips below a certain oversold threshold and price trades below the lower Bollinger Band, a condition is met that may imply a strong short-term sell-off; similarly, if the RSI surpasses the overbought threshold and price rises above the upper Band, it may indicate an overextended move to the upside. The pyramiding counters track how many of these signals occur in sequence, preventing excessive stacking of labels on the chart if conditions remain extreme for multiple bars.
Conclusion
This indicator aims to provide a more complete view of potential market extremes by overlaying the RSI’s momentum readings on top of Bollinger Band volatility signals. By doing so, it attempts to help traders see when both indicators suggest that the market might be oversold or overbought. The optional reduced pyramiding logic further refines how many signals appear, giving users the choice of a single entry or multiple scaling entries. It does not claim any guaranteed success or predictive power, but rather serves as a tool for those wanting to explore this combined approach. Always be cautious and consider multiple factors before placing any trades.
Ensemble Alerts█ OVERVIEW
This indicator creates highly customizable alert conditions and messages by combining several technical conditions into groups , which users can specify directly from the "Settings/Inputs" tab. It offers a flexible framework for building and testing complex alert conditions without requiring code modifications for each adjustment.
█ CONCEPTS
Ensemble analysis
Ensemble analysis is a form of data analysis that combines several "weaker" models to produce a potentially more robust model. In a trading context, one of the most prevalent forms of ensemble analysis is the aggregation (grouping) of several indicators to derive market insights and reinforce trading decisions. With this analysis, traders typically inspect multiple indicators, signaling trade actions when specific conditions or groups of conditions align.
Simplifying ensemble creation
Combining indicators into one or more ensembles can be challenging, especially for users without programming knowledge. It usually involves writing custom scripts to aggregate the indicators and trigger trading alerts based on the confluence of specific conditions. Making such scripts customizable via inputs poses an additional challenge, as it often involves complicated input menus and conditional logic.
This indicator addresses these challenges by providing a simple, flexible input menu where users can easily define alert criteria by listing groups of conditions from various technical indicators in simple text boxes . With this script, you can create complex alert conditions intuitively from the "Settings/Inputs" tab without ever writing or modifying a single line of code. This framework makes advanced alert setups more accessible to non-coders. Additionally, it can help Pine programmers save time and effort when testing various condition combinations.
█ FEATURES
Configurable alert direction
The "Direction" dropdown at the top of the "Settings/Inputs" tab specifies the allowed direction for the alert conditions. There are four possible options:
• Up only : The indicator only evaluates upward conditions.
• Down only : The indicator only evaluates downward conditions.
• Up and down (default): The indicator evaluates upward and downward conditions, creating alert triggers for both.
• Alternating : The indicator prevents alert triggers for consecutive conditions in the same direction. An upward condition must be the first occurrence after a downward condition to trigger an alert, and vice versa for downward conditions.
Flexible condition groups
This script features six text inputs where users can define distinct condition groups (ensembles) for their alerts. An alert trigger occurs if all the conditions in at least one group occur.
Each input accepts a comma-separated list of numbers with optional spaces (e.g., "1, 4, 8"). Each listed number, from 1 to 35, corresponds to a specific individual condition. Below are the conditions that the numbers represent:
1 — RSI above/below threshold
2 — RSI below/above threshold
3 — Stoch above/below threshold
4 — Stoch below/above threshold
5 — Stoch K over/under D
6 — Stoch K under/over D
7 — AO above/below threshold
8 — AO below/above threshold
9 — AO rising/falling
10 — AO falling/rising
11 — Supertrend up/down
12 — Supertrend down/up
13 — Close above/below MA
14 — Close below/above MA
15 — Close above/below open
16 — Close below/above open
17 — Close increase/decrease
18 — Close decrease/increase
19 — Close near Donchian top/bottom (Close > (Mid + HH) / 2)
20 — Close near Donchian bottom/top (Close < (Mid + LL) / 2)
21 — New Donchian high/low
22 — New Donchian low/high
23 — Rising volume
24 — Falling volume
25 — Volume above average (Volume > SMA(Volume, 20))
26 — Volume below average (Volume < SMA(Volume, 20))
27 — High body to range ratio (Abs(Close - Open) / (High - Low) > 0.5)
28 — Low body to range ratio (Abs(Close - Open) / (High - Low) < 0.5)
29 — High relative volatility (ATR(7) > ATR(40))
30 — Low relative volatility (ATR(7) < ATR(40))
31 — External condition 1
32 — External condition 2
33 — External condition 3
34 — External condition 4
35 — External condition 5
These constituent conditions fall into three distinct categories:
• Directional pairs : The numbers 1-22 correspond to pairs of opposing upward and downward conditions. For example, if one of the inputs includes "1" in the comma-separated list, that group uses the "RSI above/below threshold" condition pair. In this case, the RSI must be above a high threshold for the group to trigger an upward alert, and the RSI must be below a defined low threshold to trigger a downward alert.
• Non-directional filters : The numbers 23-30 correspond to conditions that do not represent directional information. These conditions act as filters for both upward and downward alerts. Traders often use non-directional conditions to refine trending or mean reversion signals. For instance, if one of the input lists includes "30", that group uses the "Low relative volatility" condition. The group can trigger an upward or downward alert only if the 7-period Average True Range (ATR) is below the 40-period ATR.
• External conditions : The numbers 31-35 correspond to external conditions based on the plots from other indicators on the chart. To set these conditions, use the source inputs in the "External conditions" section near the bottom of the "Settings/Inputs" tab. The external value can represent an upward, downward, or non-directional condition based on the following logic:
▫ Any value above 0 represents an upward condition.
▫ Any value below 0 represents a downward condition.
▫ If the checkbox next to the source input is selected, the condition becomes non-directional . Any group that uses the condition can trigger upward or downward alerts only if the source value is not 0.
To learn more about using plotted values from other indicators, see this article in our Help Center and the Source input section of our Pine Script™ User Manual.
Group markers
Each comma-separated list represents a distinct group , where all the listed conditions must occur to trigger an alert. This script assigns preset markers (names) to each condition group to make the active ensembles easily identifiable in the generated alert messages and labels. The markers assigned to each group use the format "M", where "M" is short for "Marker" and "x" is the group number. The titles of the inputs at the top of the "Settings/Inputs" tab show these markers for convenience.
For upward conditions, the labels and alert messages show group markers with upward triangles (e.g., "M1▲"). For downward conditions, they show markers with downward triangles (e.g., "M1▼").
NOTE: By default, this script populates the "M1" field with a pre-configured list for a mean reversion group ("2,18,24,28"). The other fields are empty. If any "M*" input does not contain a value, the indicator ignores it in the alert calculations.
Custom alert messages
By default, the indicator's alert message text contains the activated markers and their direction as a comma-separated list. Users can override this message for upward or downward alerts with the two text fields at the bottom of the "Settings/Inputs" tab. When the fields are not empty , the alerts use that text instead of the default marker list.
NOTE: This script generates alert triggers, not the alerts themselves. To set up an alert based on this script's conditions, open the "Create Alert" dialog box, then select the "Ensemble Alerts" and "Any alert() function call" options in the "Condition" tabs. See the Alerts FAQ in our Pine Script™ User Manual for more information.
Condition visualization
This script offers organized visualizations of its conditions, allowing users to inspect the behaviors of each condition alongside the specified groups. The key visual features include:
1) Conditional plots
• The indicator plots the history of each individual condition, excluding the external conditions, as circles at different levels. Opposite conditions appear at positive and negative levels with the same absolute value. The plots for each condition show values only on the bars where they occur.
• Each condition's plot is color-coded based on its type. Aqua and orange plots represent opposing directional conditions, and purple plots represent non-directional conditions. The titles of the plots also contain the condition numbers to which they apply.
• The plots in the separate pane can be turned on or off with the "Show plots in pane" checkbox near the top of the "Settings/Inputs" tab. This input only toggles the color-coded circles, which reduces the graphical load. If you deactivate these visuals, you can still inspect each condition from the script's status line and the Data Window.
• As a bonus, the indicator includes "Up alert" and "Down alert" plots in the Data Window, representing the combined upward and downward ensemble alert conditions. These plots are also usable in additional indicator-on-indicator calculations.
2) Dynamic labels
• The indicator draws a label on the main chart pane displaying the activated group markers (e.g., "M1▲") each time an alert condition occurs.
• The labels for upward alerts appear below chart bars. The labels for downward alerts appear above the bars.
NOTE: This indicator can display up to 500 labels because that is the maximum allowed for a single Pine script.
3) Background highlighting
• The indicator can highlight the main chart's background on bars where upward or downward condition groups activate. Use the "Highlight background" inputs in the "Settings/Inputs" tab to enable these highlights and customize their colors.
• Unlike the dynamic labels, these background highlights are available for all chart bars, irrespective of the number of condition occurrences.
█ NOTES
• This script uses Pine Script™ v6, the latest version of TradingView's programming language. See the Release notes and Migration guide to learn what's new in v6 and how to convert your scripts to this version.
• This script imports our new Alerts library, which features functions that provide high-level simplicity for working with complex compound conditions and alerts. We used the library's `compoundAlertMessage()` function in this indicator. It evaluates items from "bool" arrays in groups specified by an array of strings containing comma-separated index lists , returning a tuple of "string" values containing the marker of each activated group.
• The script imports the latest version of the ta library to calculate several technical indicators not included in the built-in `ta.*` namespace, including Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA), Triple Exponential Moving Average (TEMA), Fractal Adaptive Moving Average (FRAMA), Tilson T3, Awesome Oscillator (AO), Full Stochastic (%K and %D), SuperTrend, and Donchian Channels.
• The script uses the `force_overlay` parameter in the label.new() and bgcolor() calls to display the drawings and background colors in the main chart pane.
• The plots and hlines use the available `display.*` constants to determine whether the visuals appear in the separate pane.
Look first. Then leap.
Percentage price changeThis indicator marks bars whose values increase or decrease by an amount greater than or equal to the value of the specified parameter as a percentage. Bars that meet the condition are marked with labels, boxes and colors. In addition to the standard method of calculating the percentage change at the closing price of the current and previous bars, the indicator allows you to choose non-standard calculation methods (at the prices of opening and closing the current bar, as well as at the prices of the maximum at the minimum of the current bar). You can choose to display the percentage changes of individual bars as well as a series of bars. You can select the number of bars in a series of bars. You can also apply filters by the direction of the bars in the series or by the percentage of individual bars in the series.
It is important to remember that in version 5 of Pine Script™, the maximum possible number of labels and the maximum possible number of boxes cannot exceed 500!
There are several main parameters that can be changed in section PARAMETERS FOR CALCULATION:
1. 'Bars count' - The number of bars for which the percentage rise or fall is calculated.
2. ‘Percentage change’ - sets the price change as a percentage. Bars with a price range above or equal to the specified value will be marked on the chart.
3. ‘First and second points of calculation’ - the first and second points for calculating the percentage change. Here you can set several different values for the calculation:
- 'Cl.pr., Close' - Closing price of the previous bar and closing price of the current bar (or a series of bars) (these values are used for the standard calculation of the percentage change on the chart).
- 'Open, Close' - Opening and closing prices of the current bar (or a series of bars).
- 'High|Low' - Highest and lowest price of the current bar (or a series of bars).
- 'Cl.pr.|High|Low' - Highest or lowest price of the current bar (or a series of bars) (depending on whether the bar is going up or down) or closing price of the previous bar for first point (one of these values is automatically selected, which gives a larger result, depending on whether there is a gap between these values). Highest or lowest price of the current bar for second point.
In the LIMITS section, you can set the following parameters.
1. ‘Only for the last bar’ - If this option is selected, the indicator will be applied only for the last bar (or series of bars).
2. 'Only bars in one direction' - A condition that takes into account sequences from the selected number of bars going in only one direction. If at least one bar has a different direction from the other bars, then such a sequence will not be taken into account. This only works if the 'Bars count' is > 1.
3. "Cut off higher values" - This field cuts off higher values. Bars with a price range above or equal to the specified value will not be marked on the chart. This can be used in some cases to make the chart less loaded with data and more visual. Of course, you can also use this option however you want.
4. ‘Min percent in series of bars’ - If the value 'Number of bars' is > 1, then a series of bars is taken into account, in which the percentage change of individual bars is greater than or equal to the set value.
In the DATE RANGE section, you can set the limits of the time and date range in which the calculation will be performed. In some cases, this can be used in order not to exceed the limit on the number of labels or boxes, which cannot exceed 500. Of course, you can also use this option however you want. By default, the date range is unlimited.
'Timezone offset, hours' - It is used only for the correct display of the limits of the date range in the parameter table.
In the PRICE INCREASE LABELS and PRICE REDUCTION LABELS section, you can define the design of labels bars and boxes, such as colors, shapes, sizes, and location. You can set the colors of the bars separately on the Style tab. On the Style tab, you can also turn on/off the display of frames, labels and color markings of bars.
The PARAMETER TABLE section is designed to adjust the display of the table for a more visual display of the selected values of all parameters on the Arguments tab. Depending on which values have been set and which parameters have been enabled or disabled, the table will change its appearance, display or hide some rows. A single line 'Total found' will be displayed all the time. It shows the count of bars that meet the condition and count of labels or boxes used in the diagram. Since the bars are labeled with labels or boxes, their number cannot exceed 500 for Pine script version 5.
1. 'Pos.' - sets the main position of the table on the screen.
2. 'X off.', 'Y off.' - You can set the offset of the table along the X and Y axes. This option can be useful to avoid overlapping multiple tables if you want to use two or more instances of this indicator on your chart. The minimum value is -30, the maximum is 30. Positive values shift the table to the right on the X axis and up on the Y axis. Negative values shift the table to the left on the X axis and down on the Y axis.
3. 'Font color' - The font color in the table.
'Warn. font color', 'Warn. backgr. color' - The font and background colors in the 'Total found' row in the table. If the number of labels or boxes exceeds 500, the font and background will be colored in these colors.
4. ‘Font size’ – Sets the font size in the table.
5. 'Show hours and minutes in date/time range' - changes the date and time format of time range from {yyyy.MM.dd HH:mm} to {yyyy.MM.dd}.
6. 'View all params' - used to display all parameters, even those duplicated in the main line of the indicator.
7. ‘Title’ – If desired, you can make a header for the table.
The last row of the table shows the number of bars found that meet the conditions. Since these bars are marked with labels (in the case of one bar) or boxes (in the case of series of bars), the limit that can be marked on the chart is 500. Exceeding this value will be displayed in the table and additionally highlighted in red font. This will signal that not all bars found are displayed on the chart.
On the Style tab, you can turn the table display on/off.
Simple Decesion Matrix Classification Algorithm [SS]Hello everyone,
It has been a while since I posted an indicator, so thought I would share this project I did for fun.
This indicator is an attempt to develop a pseudo Random Forest classification decision matrix model for Pinescript.
This is not a full, robust Random Forest model by any stretch of the imagination, but it is a good way to showcase how decision matrices can be applied to trading and within Pinescript.
As to not market this as something it is not, I am simply calling it the "Simple Decision Matrix Classification Algorithm". However, I have stolen most of the aspects of this machine learning algo from concepts of Random Forest modelling.
How it works:
With models like Support Vector Machines (SVM), Random Forest (RF) and Gradient Boosted Machine Learning (GBM), which are commonly used in Machine Learning Classification Tasks (MLCTs), this model operates similarity to the basic concepts shared amongst those modelling types. While it is not very similar to SVM, it is very similar to RF and GBM, in that it uses a "voting" system.
What do I mean by voting system?
How most classification MLAs work is by feeding an input dataset to an algorithm. The algorithm sorts this data, categorizes it, then introduces something called a confusion matrix (essentially sorting the data in no apparently order as to prevent over-fitting and introduce "confusion" to the algorithm to ensure that it is not just following a trend).
From there, the data is called upon based on current data inputs (so say we are using RSI and Z-Score, the current RSI and Z-Score is compared against other RSI's and Z-Scores that the model has saved). The model will process this information and each "tree" or "node" will vote. Then a cumulative overall vote is casted.
How does this MLA work?
This model accepts 2 independent variables. In order to keep things simple, this model was kept as a three node model. This means that there are 3 separate votes that go in to get the result. A vote is casted for each of the two independent variables and then a cumulative vote is casted for the overall verdict (the result of the model's prediction).
The model actually displays this system diagrammatically and it will likely be easier to understand if we look at the diagram to ground the example:
In the diagram, at the very top we have the classification variable that we are trying to predict. In this case, we are trying to predict whether there will be a breakout/breakdown outside of the normal ATR range (this is either yes or no question, hence a classification task).
So the question forms the basis of the input. The model will track at which points the ATR range is exceeded to the upside or downside, as well as the other variables that we wish to use to predict these exceedences. The ATR range forms the basis of all the data flowing into the model.
Then, at the second level, you will see we are using Z-Score and RSI to predict these breaks. The circle will change colour according to "feature importance". Feature importance basically just means that the indicator has a strong impact on the outcome. The stronger the importance, the more green it will be, the weaker, the more red it will be.
We can see both RSI and Z-Score are green and thus we can say they are strong options for predicting a breakout/breakdown.
So then we move down to the actual voting mechanisms. You will see the 2 pink boxes. These are the first lines of voting. What is happening here is the model is identifying the instances that are most similar and whether the classification task we have assigned (remember out ATR exceedance classifier) was either true or false based on RSI and Z-Score.
These are our 2 nodes. They both cast an individual vote. You will see in this case, both cast a vote of 1. The options are either 1 or 0. A vote of 1 means "Yes" or "Breakout likely".
However, this is not the only voting the model does. The model does one final vote based on the 2 votes. This is shown in the purple box. We can see the final vote and result at the end with the orange circle. It is 1 which means a range exceedance is anticipated and the most likely outcome.
The Data Table Component
The model has many moving parts. I have tried to represent the pivotal functions diagrammatically, but some other important aspects and background information must be obtained from the companion data table.
If we bring back our diagram from above:
We can see the data table to the left.
The data table contains 2 sections, one for each independent variable. In this case, our independent variables are RSI and Z-Score.
The data table will provide you with specifics about the independent variables, as well as about the model accuracy and outcome.
If we take a look at the first row, it simply indicates which independent variable it is looking at. If we go down to the next row where it reads "Weighted Impact", we can see a corresponding percent. The "weighted impact" is the amount of representation each independent variable has within the voting scheme. So in this case, we can see its pretty equal, 45% and 55%, This tells us that there is a slight higher representation of z-score than RSI but nothing to worry about.
If there was a major over-respresentation of greater than 30 or 40%, then the model would risk being skewed and voting too heavily in favour of 1 variable over the other.
If we move down from there we will see the next row reads "independent accuracy". The voting of each independent variable's accuracy is considered separately. This is one way we can determine feature importance, by seeing how well one feature augments the accuracy. In this case, we can see that RSI has the greatest importance, with an accuracy of around 87% at predicting breakouts. That makes sense as RSI is a momentum based oscillator.
Then if we move down one more, we will see what each independent feature (node) has voted for. In this case, both RSI and Z-Score voted for 1 (Breakout in our case).
You can weigh these in collaboration, but its always important to look at the final verdict of the model, which if we move down, we can see the "Model prediction" which is "Bullish".
If you are using the ATR breakout, the model cannot distinguish between "Bullish" or "Bearish", must that a "Breakout" is likely, either bearish or bullish. However, for the other classification tasks this model can do, the results are either Bullish or Bearish.
Using the Function:
Okay so now that all that technical stuff is out of the way, let's get into using the function. First of all this function innately provides you with 3 possible classification tasks. These include:
1. Predicting Red or Green Candle
2. Predicting Bullish / Bearish ATR
3. Predicting a Breakout from the ATR range
The possible independent variables include:
1. Stochastics,
2. MFI,
3. RSI,
4. Z-Score,
5. EMAs,
6. SMAs,
7. Volume
The model can only accept 2 independent variables, to operate within the computation time limits for pine execution.
Let's quickly go over what the numbers in the diagram mean:
The numbers being pointed at with the yellow arrows represent the cases the model is sorting and voting on. These are the most identical cases and are serving as the voting foundation for the model.
The numbers being pointed at with the pink candle is the voting results.
Extrapolating the functions (For Pine Developers:
So this is more of a feature application, so feel free to customize it to your liking and add additional inputs. But here are some key important considerations if you wish to apply this within your own code:
1. This is a BINARY classification task. The prediction must either be 0 or 1.
2. The function consists of 3 separate functions, the 2 first functions serve to build the confusion matrix and then the final "random_forest" function serves to perform the computations. You will need all 3 functions for implementation.
3. The model can only accept 2 independent variables.
I believe that is the function. Hopefully this wasn't too confusing, it is very statsy, but its a fun function for me! I use Random Forest excessively in R and always like to try to convert R things to Pinescript.
Hope you enjoy!
Safe trades everyone!
Hybrid Triple Exponential Smoothing🙏🏻 TV, I present you HTES aka Hybrid Triple Exponential Smoothing, designed by Holt & Winters in the US, assembled by me in Saint P. I apply exponential smoothing individually to the data itself, then to residuals from the fitted values, and lastly to one-point forecast (OPF) errors, hence 'hybrid'. At the same time, the method is a closed-form solution and purely online, no need to make any recalculations & optimize anything, so the method is O(1).
^^ historical OPFs and one-point forecasting interval plotted instead of fitted values and prediction interval
Before the How-to, first let me tell you some non-obvious things about Triple Exponential smoothing (and about Exponential Smoothing in general) that not many catch. Expo smoothing seems very straightforward and obvious, but if you look deeper...
1) The whole point of exponential smoothing is its incremental/online nature, and its O(1) algorithm complexity, making it dope for high-frequency streaming data that is also univariate and has no weights. Consequently:
- Any hybrid models that involve expo smoothing and any type of ML models like gradient boosting applied to residuals rarely make much sense business-wise: if you have resources to boost the residuals, you prolly have resources to use something instead of expo smoothing;
- It also concerns the fashion of using optimizers to pick smoothing parameters; honestly, if you use this approach, you have to retrain on each datapoint, which is crazy in a streaming context. If you're not in a streaming context, why expo smoothing? What makes more sense is either picking smoothing parameters once, guided by exogenous info, or using dynamic ones calculated in a minimalistic and elegant way (more on that in further drops).
2) No matter how 'right' you choose the smoothing parameters, all the resulting components (level, trend, seasonal) are not pure; each of them contains a bit of info from the other components, this is just how non-sequential expo smoothing works. You gotta know this if you wanna use expo smoothing to decompose your time series into separate components. The only pure component there, lol, is the residuals;
3) Given what I've just said, treating the level (that does contain trend and seasonal components partially) as the resulting fit is a mistake. The resulting fit is level (l) + trend (b) + seasonal (s). And from this fit, you calculate residuals;
4) The residuals component is not some kind of bad thing; it is simply the component that contains info you consciously decide not to include in your model for whatever reason;
5) Forecasting Errors and Residuals from fitted values are 2 different things. The former are deltas between the forecasts you've made and actual values you've observed, the latter are simply differences between actual datapoints and in-sample fitted values;
6) Residuals are used for in-sample prediction intervals, errors for out-of-sample forecasting intervals;
7) Choosing between single, double, or triple expo smoothing should not be based exclusively on the nature of your data, but on what you need to do as well. For example:
- If you have trending seasonal data and you wanna do forecasting exclusively within the expo smoothing framework, then yes, you need Triple Exponential Smoothing;
- If you wanna use prediction intervals for generating trend-trading signals and you disregard seasonality, then you need single (simple) expo smoothing, even on trending data. Otherwise, the trend component will be included in your model's fitted values → prediction intervals.
8) Kind of not non-obvious, but when you put one smoothing parameter to zero, you basically disregard this component. E.g., in triple expo smoothing, when you put gamma and beta to zero, you basically end up with single exponential smoothing.
^^ data smoothing, beta and gamma zeroed out, forecasting steps = 0
About the implementation
* I use a simple power transform that results in a log transform with lambda = 0 instead of the mainstream-used transformers (if you put lambda on 2 in Box-Cox, you won't get a power of 2 transform)
* Separate set of smoothing parameters for data, residuals, and errors smoothing
* Separate band multipliers for residuals and errors
* Both typical error and typical residuals get multiplied by math.sqrt(math.pi / 2) in order to approach standard deviation so you can ~use Z values and get more or less corresponding probabilities
* In script settings → style, you can switch on/off plotting of many things that get calculated internally:
- You can visualize separate components (just remember they are not pure);
- You can switch off fit and switch on OPF plotting;
- You can plot residuals and their exponentially smoothed typical value to pick the smoothing parameters for both data and residuals;
- Or you might plot errors and play with data smoothing parameters to minimize them (consult SAE aka Sum of Absolute Errors plot);
^^ nuff said
More ideas on how to use the thing
1) Use Double Exponential Smoothing (data gamma = 0) to detrend your time series for further processing (Fourier likes at least weakly stationary data);
2) Put single expo smoothing on your strategy/subaccount equity chart (data alpha = data beta = 0), set prediction interval deviation multiplier to 1, run your strat live on simulator, start executing on real market when equity on simulator hits upper deviation (prediction interval), stop trading if equity hits lower deviation on simulator. Basically, let the strat always run on simulator, but send real orders to a real market when the strat is successful on your simulator;
3) Set up the model to minimize one-point forecasting errors, put error forecasting steps to 1, now you're doing nowcasting;
4) Forecast noisy trending sine waves for fun.
^^ nuff said 2
All Good TV ∞
Quick scan for signal🙏🏻 Hey TV, this is QSFS, following:
^^ Quick scan for drift (QSFD)
^^ Quick scan for cycles (QSFC)
As mentioned before, ML trading is all about spotting any kind of non-randomness, and this metric (along with 2 previously posted) gonna help ya'll do it fast. This one will show you whether your time series possibly exhibits mean-reverting / consistent / noisy behavior, that can be later confirmed or denied by more sophisticated tools. This metric is O(n) in windowed mode and O(1) if calculated incrementally on each data update, so you can scan Ks of datasets w/o worrying about melting da ice.
^^ windowed mode
Now the post will be divided into several sections, and a couple of things I guess you’ve never seen or thought about in your life:
1) About Efficiency Ratios posted there on TV;
Some of you might say this is the Efficiency Ratio you’ve seen in Perry's book. Firstly, I can assure you that neither me nor Perry, just as X amount of quants all over the world and who knows who else, would say smth like, "I invented it," lol. This is just a thing you R&D when you need it. Secondly, I invite you (and mods & admin as well) to take a lil glimpse at the following screenshot:
^^ not cool...
So basically, all the Efficiency Ratios that were copypasted to our platform suffer the same bug: dudes don’t know how indexing works in Pine Script. I mean, it’s ok, I been doing the same mistakes as well, but loxx, cmon bro, you... If you guys ever read it, the lines 20 and 22 in da code are dedicated to you xD
2) About the metric;
This supports both moving window mode when Length > 0 and all-data expanding window mode when Length < 1, calculating incrementally from the very first data point in the series: O(n) on history, O(1) on live updates.
Now, why do I SQRT transform the result? This is a natural action since the metric (being a ratio in essence) is bounded between 0 and 1, so it can be modeled with a beta distribution. When you SQRT transform it, it still stays beta (think what happens when you apply a square root to 0.01 or 0.99), but it becomes symmetric around its typical value and starts to follow a bell-shaped curve. This can be easily checked with a normality test or by applying a set of percentiles and seeing the distances between them are almost equal.
Then I noticed that on different moving window sizes, the typical value of the metric seems to slide: higher window sizes lead to lower typical values across the moving windows. Turned out this can be modeled the same way confidence intervals are made. Lines 34 and 35 explain it all, I guess. You can see smth alike on an autocorrelogram. These two match the mean & mean + 1 stdev applied to the metric. This way, we’ve just magically received data to estimate alpha and beta parameters of the beta distribution using the method of moments. Having alpha and beta, we can now estimate everything further. Btw, there’s an alternative parameterization for beta distributions based on data length.
Now what you’ll see next is... u guys actually have no idea how deep and unrealistically minimalistic the underlying math principles are here.
I’m sure I’m not the only one in the universe who figured it out, but the thing is, it’s nowhere online or offline. By calculating higher-order moments & combining them, you can find natural adaptive thresholds that can later be used for anomaly detection/control applications for any data. No hardcoded thresholds, purely data-driven. Imma come back to this in one of the next drops, but the truest ones can already see it in this code. This way we get dem thresholds.
Your main thresholds are: basis, upper, and lower deviations. You can follow the common logic I’ve described in my previous scripts on how to use them. You just register an event when the metric goes higher/lower than a certain threshold based on what you’re looking for. Then you take the time series and confirm a certain behavior you were looking for by using an appropriate stat test. Or just run a certain strategy.
To avoid numerous triggers when the metric jitters around a threshold, you can follow this logic: forget about one threshold if touched, until another threshold is touched.
In general, when the metric gets higher than certain thresholds, like upper deviation, it means the signal is stronger than noise. You confirm it with a more sophisticated tool & run momentum strategies if drift is in place, or volatility strategies if there’s no drift in place. Otherwise, you confirm & run ~ mean-reverting strategies, regardless of whether there’s drift or not. Just don’t operate against the trend—hedge otherwise.
3) Flex;
Extension and limit thresholds based on distribution moments gonna be discussed properly later, but now you can see this:
^^ magic
Look at the thresholds—adaptive and dynamic. Do you see any optimizations? No ML, no DL, closed-form solution, but how? Just a formula based on a couple of variables? Maybe it’s just how the Universe works, but how can you know if you don’t understand how fundamentally numbers 3 and 15 are related to the normal distribution? Hm, why do they always say 3 sigmas but can’t say why? Maybe you can be different and say why?
This is the primordial power of statistical modeling.
4) Thanks;
I really wanna dedicate this to Charlotte de Witte & Marion Di Napoli, and their new track "Sanctum." It really gets you connected to the Source—I had it in my soul when I was doing all this ∞
Order blocksHi all!
This indicator will show you found order blocks that can be used as supply or demand. It's my take on trying to create good order blocks and I hope it makes sense.
First off I suggest to verify the current trend before using an order block. This can be done in a variety of ways, one way could be to use my other script "Market structure" () which I use and suggest.
You can configure the indicator to behave differently depending on settings. These are the settings available:
• The order blocks created can be found in any higher timeframe defined in "Timeframe"
• The number of active order blocks are defined in "Count". If an order block is found the earliest order block will be replaced
• You can choose the type of order blocks that are found ("Bullish", "Bearish " or "Both") in "Type"
• The old order blocks can be kept if "Keep history" is checked
• Order blocks that are found are not removed when mitigated (entered) but when a new one appears. They can be removed when they are broken by price if "Remove broken zones" are checked
There is also a setting section called "Requirements" that defines what is required for an order block to be created. These are the settings:
• "Take out"
Check this if you want the base of the order block (the candle where the zone is drawn from (high and low)) to have to take out the previous candle (be higher or lower depending if the order block is bullish or bearish).
• "Consecutive rising/falling"
Each following candle in the reaction (the 3 reaction candles) needs to reach higher or lower (depending on bullish or bearish). Check this if you want that to be true.
• "Reaction"
Some sort of reaction is needed from the 3 candles creating the order block. This reaction is based on the value of the Average True Length (ATR) of length 14. You can here define a factor of the value from the ATR that these 3 candles needs to move in price. A higher need for a reaction (higher factor of the ATR) will create lesser zones. You can also choose to show this limit with the checkbox.
• "Fair Value Gap"
The reaction needs to create a gap (imbalance) in price. This gap is known as a "Fair Value Gap" and is created when the last candle's wick does not meet with the base candle's wick. Check this if you want this to be needed.
After these settings you can also choose the colors of the created zones. The ones that are active (called "Zones"), the ones that are replaced ("Replaced zones") and the ones that are broken ("Broken zones") (if this is enabled in "Remove broken zones").
I'm using my library "Touched" to be able to show you labels when the order blocks have a retest, false breakout and breakout. These labels can be hidden if you disable the labels under the style tab in the indicator settings.
The concept of order blocks is widely used among traders and can provide you with good supply or demand zones. I hope that this indicator makes sense.
My todo-list has a few things, but top of that list is adding alerts for zone interactions or creations. Please feel free to say what you want to be coded!
The order blocks in the publication chart are found in weekly timeframe but are shown on the daily timeframe. Other than that the image shows you zones from the default settings (which are based on the daily timeframe).
Best of luck trading!
[TheMandalor] Invert or Mirror Chart SUPPORT RESSISTANTThis is a new idea to find supports and resistant’s for any charts.
What is the concept of this indicator:
1. It is used close and inverted it on chart
2. When the real chart and the inverted chart is crossing together several times, this point will be important on this concept that means the price will care about this point again and again.
3. When you draw a horizontal line as support and resistance check it with this indicator too, if your support and resistance is touched with inverted chart, it will be more important than normal support/ resistance.
4. This indicator has plot candle too, it means you can compare regular chart with the inverted one at same time if you need.
Here is the steps:
1. When you add the indicator to your chart it will add your ticker as inverted.
2. Change your chart type to line chart.
3. Fix your scale in both sides left and right (the indicator's side is on the left).
4. Now you must have two type of line charts, one is yours (The blue one) and one is plotted with this indicator (The purple one).
5. Draw a horizontal line where these two lines have more crossing at the middle of chart, this line will be a powerful line later.
6. Find other more crossed points and draw horizontal line for them too.
7. Now you can see these indicator's support and resistant’s, now you can remove the indicator and watch how the price will touch, reverse, or stay on your new type of support and resistant’s lines.
PS: I have added candle plotting too if you need it.
ICT Master Suite [Trading IQ]Hello Traders!
We’re excited to introduce the ICT Master Suite by TradingIQ, a new tool designed to bring together several ICT concepts and strategies in one place.
The Purpose Behind the ICT Master Suite
There are a few challenges traders often face when using ICT-related indicators:
Many available indicators focus on one or two ICT methods, which can limit traders who apply a broader range of ICT related techniques on their charts.
There aren't many indicators for ICT strategy models, and we couldn't find ICT indicators that allow for testing the strategy models and setting alerts.
Many ICT related concepts exist in the public domain as indicators, not strategies! This makes it difficult to verify that the ICT concept has some utility in the market you're trading and if it's worth trading - it's difficult to know if it's working!
Some users might not have enough chart space to apply numerous ICT related indicators, which can be restrictive for those wanting to use multiple ICT techniques simultaneously.
The ICT Master Suite is designed to offer a comprehensive option for traders who want to apply a variety of ICT methods. By combining several ICT techniques and strategy models into one indicator, it helps users maximize their chart space while accessing multiple tools in a single slot.
Additionally, the ICT Master Suite was developed as a strategy . This means users can backtest various ICT strategy models - including deep backtesting. A primary goal of this indicator is to let traders decide for themselves what markets to trade ICT concepts in and give them the capability to figure out if the strategy models are worth trading!
What Makes the ICT Master Suite Different
There are many ICT-related indicators available on TradingView, each offering valuable insights. What the ICT Master Suite aims to do is bring together a wider selection of these techniques into one tool. This includes both key ICT methods and strategy models, allowing traders to test and activate strategies all within one indicator.
Features
The ICT Master Suite offers:
Multiple ICT strategy models, including the 2022 Strategy Model and Unicorn Model, which can be built, tested, and used for live trading.
Calculation and display of key price areas like Breaker Blocks, Rejection Blocks, Order Blocks, Fair Value Gaps, Equal Levels, and more.
The ability to set alerts based on these ICT strategies and key price areas.
A comprehensive, yet practical, all-inclusive ICT indicator for traders.
Customizable Timeframe - Calculate ICT concepts on off-chart timeframes
Unicorn Strategy Model
2022 Strategy Model
Liquidity Raid Strategy Model
OTE (Optimal Trade Entry) Strategy Model
Silver Bullet Strategy Model
Order blocks
Breaker blocks
Rejection blocks
FVG
Strong highs and lows
Displacements
Liquidity sweeps
Power of 3
ICT Macros
HTF previous bar high and low
Break of Structure indications
Market Structure Shift indications
Equal highs and lows
Swings highs and swing lows
Fibonacci TPs and SLs
Swing level TPs and SLs
Previous day high and low TPs and SLs
And much more! An ongoing project!
How To Use
Many traders will already be familiar with the ICT related concepts listed above, and will find using the ICT Master Suite quite intuitive!
Despite this, let's go over the features of the tool in-depth and how to use the tool!
The image above shows the ICT Master Suite with almost all techniques activated.
ICT 2022 Strategy Model
The ICT Master suite provides the ability to test, set alerts for, and live trade the ICT 2022 Strategy Model.
The image above shows an example of a long position being entered following a complete setup for the 2022 ICT model.
A liquidity sweep occurs prior to an upside breakout. During the upside breakout the model looks for the FVG that is nearest 50% of the setup range. A limit order is placed at this FVG for entry.
The target entry percentage for the range is customizable in the settings. For instance, you can select to enter at an FVG nearest 33% of the range, 20%, 66%, etc.
The profit target for the model generally uses the highest high of the range (100%) for longs and the lowest low of the range (100%) for shorts. Stop losses are generally set at 0% of the range.
The image above shows the short model in action!
Whether you decide to follow the 2022 model diligently or not, you can still set alerts when the entry condition is met.
ICT Unicorn Model
The image above shows an example of a long position being entered following a complete setup for the ICT Unicorn model.
A lower swing low followed by a higher swing high precedes the overlap of an FVG and breaker block formed during the sequence.
During the upside breakout the model looks for an FVG and breaker block that formed during the sequence and overlap each other. A limit order is placed at the nearest overlap point to current price.
The profit target for this example trade is set at the swing high and the stop loss at the swing low. However, both the profit target and stop loss for this model are configurable in the settings.
For Longs, the selectable profit targets are:
Swing High
Fib -0.5
Fib -1
Fib -2
For Longs, the selectable stop losses are:
Swing Low
Bottom of FVG or breaker block
The image above shows the short version of the Unicorn Model in action!
For Shorts, the selectable profit targets are:
Swing Low
Fib -0.5
Fib -1
Fib -2
For Shorts, the selectable stop losses are:
Swing High
Top of FVG or breaker block
The image above shows the profit target and stop loss options in the settings for the Unicorn Model.
Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) Model
The image above shows an example of a long position being entered following a complete setup for the OTE model.
Price retraces either 0.62, 0.705, or 0.79 of an upside move and a trade is entered.
The profit target for this example trade is set at the -0.5 fib level. This is also adjustable in the settings.
For Longs, the selectable profit targets are:
Swing High
Fib -0.5
Fib -1
Fib -2
The image above shows the short version of the OTE Model in action!
For Shorts, the selectable profit targets are:
Swing Low
Fib -0.5
Fib -1
Fib -2
Liquidity Raid Model
The image above shows an example of a long position being entered following a complete setup for the Liquidity Raid Modell.
The user must define the session in the settings (for this example it is 13:30-16:00 NY time).
During the session, the indicator will calculate the session high and session low. Following a “raid” of either the session high or session low (after the session has completed) the script will look for an entry at a recently formed breaker block.
If the session high is raided the script will look for short entries at a bearish breaker block. If the session low is raided the script will look for long entries at a bullish breaker block.
For Longs, the profit target options are:
Swing high
User inputted Lib level
For Longs, the stop loss options are:
Swing low
User inputted Lib level
Breaker block bottom
The image above shows the short version of the Liquidity Raid Model in action!
For Shorts, the profit target options are:
Swing Low
User inputted Lib level
For Shorts, the stop loss options are:
Swing High
User inputted Lib level
Breaker block top
Silver Bullet Model
The image above shows an example of a long position being entered following a complete setup for the Silver Bullet Modell.
During the session, the indicator will determine the higher timeframe bias. If the higher timeframe bias is bullish the strategy will look to enter long at an FVG that forms during the session. If the higher timeframe bias is bearish the indicator will look to enter short at an FVG that forms during the session.
For Longs, the profit target options are:
Nearest Swing High Above Entry
Previous Day High
For Longs, the stop loss options are:
Nearest Swing Low
Previous Day Low
The image above shows the short version of the Silver Bullet Model in action!
For Shorts, the profit target options are:
Nearest Swing Low Below Entry
Previous Day Low
For Shorts, the stop loss options are:
Nearest Swing High
Previous Day High
Order blocks
The image above shows indicator identifying and labeling order blocks.
The color of the order blocks, and how many should be shown, are configurable in the settings!
Breaker Blocks
The image above shows indicator identifying and labeling order blocks.
The color of the breaker blocks, and how many should be shown, are configurable in the settings!
Rejection Blocks
The image above shows indicator identifying and labeling rejection blocks.
The color of the rejection blocks, and how many should be shown, are configurable in the settings!
Fair Value Gaps
The image above shows indicator identifying and labeling fair value gaps.
The color of the fair value gaps, and how many should be shown, are configurable in the settings!
Additionally, you can select to only show fair values gaps that form after a liquidity sweep. Doing so reduces "noisy" FVGs and focuses on identifying FVGs that form after a significant trading event.
The image above shows the feature enabled. A fair value gap that occurred after a liquidity sweep is shown.
Market Structure
The image above shows the ICT Master Suite calculating market structure shots and break of structures!
The color of MSS and BoS, and whether they should be displayed, are configurable in the settings.
Displacements
The images above show indicator identifying and labeling displacements.
The color of the displacements, and how many should be shown, are configurable in the settings!
Equal Price Points
The image above shows the indicator identifying and labeling equal highs and equal lows.
The color of the equal levels, and how many should be shown, are configurable in the settings!
Previous Custom TF High/Low
The image above shows the ICT Master Suite calculating the high and low price for a user-defined timeframe. In this case the previous day’s high and low are calculated.
To illustrate the customizable timeframe function, the image above shows the indicator calculating the previous 4 hour high and low.
Liquidity Sweeps
The image above shows the indicator identifying a liquidity sweep prior to an upside breakout.
The image above shows the indicator identifying a liquidity sweep prior to a downside breakout.
The color and aggressiveness of liquidity sweep identification are adjustable in the settings!
Power Of Three
The image above shows the indicator calculating Po3 for two user-defined higher timeframes!
Macros
The image above shows the ICT Master Suite identifying the ICT macros!
ICT Macros are only displayable on the 5 minute timeframe or less.
Strategy Performance Table
In addition to a full-fledged TradingView backtest for any of the ICT strategy models the indicator offers, a quick-and-easy strategy table exists for the indicator!
The image above shows the strategy performance table in action.
Keep in mind that, because the ICT Master Suite is a strategy script, you can perform fully automatic backtests, deep backtests, easily add commission and portfolio balance and look at pertinent metrics for the ICT strategies you are testing!
Lite Mode
Traders who want the cleanest chart possible can toggle on “Lite Mode”!
In Lite Mode, any neon or “glow” like effects are removed and key levels are marked as strict border boxes. You can also select to remove box borders if that’s what you prefer!
Settings Used For Backtest
For the displayed backtest, a starting balance of $1000 USD was used. A commission of 0.02%, slippage of 2 ticks, a verify price for limit orders of 2 ticks, and 5% of capital investment per order.
A commission of 0.02% was used due to the backtested asset being a perpetual future contract for a crypto currency. The highest commission (lowest-tier VIP) for maker orders on many exchanges is 0.02%. All entered positions take place as maker orders and so do profit target exits. Stop orders exist as stop-market orders.
A slippage of 2 ticks was used to simulate more realistic stop-market orders. A verify limit order settings of 2 ticks was also used. Even though BTCUSDT.P on Binance is liquid, we just want the backtest to be on the safe side. Additionally, the backtest traded 100+ trades over the period. The higher the sample size the better; however, this example test can serve as a starting point for traders interested in ICT concepts.
Community Assistance And Feedback
Given the complexity and idiosyncratic applications of ICT concepts amongst its proponents, the ICT Master Suite’s built-in strategies and level identification methods might not align with everyone's interpretation.
That said, the best we can do is precisely define ICT strategy rules and concepts to a repeatable process, test, and apply them! Whether or not an ICT strategy is trading precisely how you would trade it, seeing the model in action, taking trades, and with performance statistics is immensely helpful in assessing predictive utility.
If you think we missed something, you notice a bug, have an idea for strategy model improvement, please let us know! The ICT Master Suite is an ongoing project that will, ideally, be shaped by the community.
A big thank you to the @PineCoders for their Time Library!
Thank you!
Accurate 10x Volume Spike with Corrected Next Candle AnalysisDescription :
The Volume Ten Candles indicator is a technical analysis tool that helps traders identify candles with volume exceeding the previous one by 10 times. This can indicate a potential trend reversal or continuation of the current price movement.
Signal :
The indicator generates a signal when a candle with volume exceeding the previous one by 10 times appears. The signal is displayed on the chart as an arrow or other symbol.
Statistics :
The indicator also displays statistics in the form of a table that shows the number of candles with volume exceeding the previous one by 10 times for a certain period of time. This helps traders assess the strength of the trend and make a decision about entering a trade.
Example of Use :
The Volume Ten Candles indicator can be useful for traders who want to find candles with high volume and use them to enter a trade. For example, if a candle with volume exceeding the previous one by 10 times appears, it may indicate that the market is ready for a price movement. In this case, the trader can open a trade in the direction of this movement.
It is important to note that the Volume Ten Candles indicator is not a guarantee of profit and may produce false signals. Therefore, before using the indicator, it is necessary to conduct testing on historical data and develop a trading strategy.
Statistics Table :
The table displays the number of candles with volume exceeding the previous one by 10 times for each day.
Cypher Harmonic Pattern [TradingFinder] Cypher Pattern Detector🔵 Introduction
The Cypher Pattern is one of the most accurate and advanced harmonic patterns, introduced by Darren Oglesbee. The Cypher pattern, utilizing Fibonacci ratios and geometric price analysis, helps traders identify price reversal points with high precision. This pattern consists of five key points (X, A, B, C, and D), each playing an important role in determining entry and exit points in the financial markets.
The reversal point typically occurs in the XD region, with the Fibonacci ratio ranging between 0.768 and 0.886. This zone is referred to as the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ), where traders anticipate price changes to occur.
The Cypher harmonic pattern is popular among professional traders due to its high accuracy in identifying market trends and reversal points. The pattern appears in two forms: bullish Cypher pattern and bearish Cypher pattern.
In the bullish Cypher pattern, after a price correction, the price moves upward, while in the bearish Cypher pattern, the price moves downward after a temporary increase. These patterns help traders use technical analysis to identify strong reversal points in the PRZ and execute more optimal trades.
Bullish Cypher Pattern :
Bearish Cypher Pattern :
🔵 How to Use
The Cypher pattern is one of the most complex and precise harmonic patterns, leveraging Fibonacci ratios to help traders identify price reversals. This pattern is comprised of five key points, each playing a critical role in determining entry and exit points.
The Cypher pattern appears in two main types :
Bullish Cypher pattern : This pattern appears as an M shape on the chart and indicates a trend reversal to the upside after a price correction. Traders can prepare for buying after identifying this pattern in technical analysis.
Bearish Cypher pattern : This pattern appears as a W shape and signals the start of a downtrend after a temporary price increase. Traders can use this pattern to enter short positions.
🟣 How to Identify the Cypher Pattern on a Chart
Identifying the Cypher pattern requires precision and the use of advanced technical analysis tools. The pattern consists of four main legs, each identified using Fibonacci ratios and geometric analysis.
To spot the Cypher pattern on a chart, first, identify the five key points : X, A, B, C, and D.
XA leg : The initial move from point X to A.
AB leg : The first correction after the XA move, where the price moves to point B.
BC leg : After the correction, the price moves upwards to point C.
CD leg : The final price move that reaches point D, where a price reversal is expected.
In a bullish Cypher pattern, point D indicates the start of a new uptrend, while in a bearish Cypher pattern, point D signals the beginning of a downtrend. Correctly identifying these points helps traders determine the best time to enter a trade.
🟣 How to Trade Using the Cypher Pattern
Once the Cypher pattern is identified on the chart, traders can use it to set entry and exit points. Point D is the key point for trade entry. In the bullish Cypher pattern, the trader can enter a long position after point D forms, while in the bearish Cypher pattern, point D serves as the ideal point for entering a short position.
🟣 Entering a Buy Trade with the Bullish Cypher Pattern
In a bullish Cypher pattern, traders wait for the price to reach point D, after which they can enter a buy position. At this point, the price is expected to start rising.
🟣 Entering a Sell Trade with the Bearish Cypher Pattern
In a bearish Cypher pattern, the trader enters a sell position at point D, expecting the price to move downward after reaching this point. For additional confirmation, traders can use technical indicators such as RSI or MACD.
🟣 Risk Management in Cypher Pattern Trades
Risk management is one of the most critical aspects of any trade, and this holds true for trading the Cypher pattern. Traders should always use stop-loss orders to prevent larger losses in case the pattern fails.
In the bullish Cypher pattern, the stop-loss is usually placed slightly below point D to exit the trade if the price continues to drop.
In the bearish Cypher pattern, the stop-loss is placed above point D to limit losses if the price rises unexpectedly.
🟣 Combining the Cypher Pattern with Other Technical Tools
The Cypher pattern is a powerful tool in technical analysis, but combining it with other methods such as price action and technical indicators can improve trading accuracy.
🟣 Combining with Price Action
Traders can use price action to confirm the Cypher pattern. Candlestick patterns like reversal candlesticks can provide additional confirmation for price reversals at point D.
🟣 Using Technical Indicators
Incorporating technical indicators such as RSI and MACD can also help traders receive stronger signals for entering trades based on the Cypher pattern. These indicators help identify overbought or oversold conditions, allowing traders to make more informed decisions.
🟣 Advantages and Disadvantages of the Cypher Pattern in Technical Analysis
Advantages :
High accuracy : The Cypher pattern, using Fibonacci ratios and geometric analysis, provides high precision in identifying reversal points.
Applicable in various markets : This pattern can be used in a wide range of financial markets, including forex, stocks, and cryptocurrencies.
Disadvantages :
Rarit y: The Cypher pattern appears less frequently on charts compared to other harmonic patterns.
Complexity : Accurately identifying this pattern requires significant experience, which may be challenging for novice traders.
🔵 Setting
🟣 Logical Setting
ZigZag Pivot Period : You can adjust the period so that the harmonic patterns are adjusted according to the pivot period you want. This factor is the most important parameter in pattern recognition.
Show Valid Forma t: If this parameter is on "On" mode, only patterns will be displayed that they have exact format and no noise can be seen in them. If "Off" is, the patterns displayed that maybe are noisy and do not exactly correspond to the original pattern.
Show Formation Last Pivot Confirm : if Turned on, you can see this ability of patterns when their last pivot is formed. If this feature is off, it will see the patterns as soon as they are formed. The advantage of this option being clear is less formation of fielded patterns, and it is accompanied by the latest pattern seeing and a sharp reduction in reward to risk.
Period of Formation Last Pivot : Using this parameter you can determine that the last pivot is based on Pivot period.
🟣 Genaral Setting
Show : Enter "On" to display the template and "Off" to not display the template.
Color : Enter the desired color to draw the pattern in this parameter.
LineWidth : You can enter the number 1 or numbers higher than one to adjust the thickness of the drawing lines. This number must be an integer and increases with increasing thickness.
LabelSize : You can adjust the size of the labels by using the "size.auto", "size.tiny", "size.smal", "size.normal", "size.large" or "size.huge" entries.
🟣 Alert Setting
Alert : On / Off
Message Frequency : This string parameter defines the announcement frequency. Choices include: "All" (activates the alert every time the function is called), "Once Per Bar" (activates the alert only on the first call within the bar), and "Once Per Bar Close" (the alert is activated only by a call at the last script execution of the real-time bar upon closing). The default setting is "Once per Bar".
Show Alert Time by Time Zone : The date, hour, and minute you receive in alert messages can be based on any time zone you choose. For example, if you want New York time, you should enter "UTC-4". This input is set to the time zone "UTC" by default.
🔵 Conclusion
The Cypher harmonic pattern is one of the most powerful and accurate patterns used in technical analysis. Its high precision in identifying price reversal points, particularly within the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ), has made it a popular tool among professional traders. The PRZ, located between the Fibonacci ratios of 0.768 and 0.886 in the XD region, offers traders a clear indication of where price reversals are likely to occur.
However, to use this pattern successfully, traders must employ proper risk management and combine it with supplementary tools like technical indicators and price action. By understanding how to utilize the PRZ, traders can enhance the accuracy of their trade entries and exits.
Ultimately, the Cypher pattern, when used in conjunction with the PRZ, helps traders make more precise decisions in the financial markets, leading to more successful and well-informed trades.
Ultra Moving AverageThe Ultra Moving Average is a versatile technical indicator that combines various types of moving averages to analyze trends, providing multi-timeframe insights for traders. It offers four customizable moving averages and a trend strength table for enhanced decision-making.
Introduction
The Ultra Moving Average indicator is a powerful tool designed to help traders track market trends by offering a combination of four distinct moving averages. With flexible customization options, users can apply different types of moving averages like SMA, EMA, TEMA, and many more, across various timeframes. Additionally, it provides trend strength analysis through an intuitive visual table, helping traders quickly identify market conditions.
Detailed Description
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Moving Averages
Each of the four moving averages is independently configurable. You can select the timeframe, type, length, color, and width to match your trading strategy.
The types of moving averages range from traditional ones like the Simple Moving Average (SMA) to advanced ones like the Double Expotential Moving Average (DEMA) or the Triple Exponential Moving Average (TEMA) or the Recursive Moving Average (RMA) or the Weigthend Moving Average (WMA) or the Volume Weigthend Moving Average (VWMA) or Hull Moving Average (HMA).
Very Special ones are the Triple Weigthend Moving Average (TWMA) wich created RedKTrader .
I created the Multi Weigthend Moving Average (MWMA) wich is a simple signal line to the TWMA.
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Trend Visualization
The indicator uses color-coding to visually represent whether the price is in an uptrend or downtrend. Bullish trends are highlighted in one color, while bearish trends appear in another, making it easy to interpret.
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Trend Strength Table
One of the unique features of the Ultra Moving Average is the trend strength table at the bottom of the chart. This table breaks down the strength of the fast, mid, and slow moving averages, displaying them as percentages. It also shows the overall "trend power," which helps assess how strong or weak the current trend is.
You have the option to calculate trends using live data or the previous bar's data, offering flexibility in how the indicator reacts to market changes. This can help traders make more responsive decisions based on real-time trends.
The table displays trend strength across three timeframes Fast, Mid, and Slow by calculating the percentage difference between the price and each of the moving averages (MA1, MA3, MA4).
The Power row shows the average of these percentages, representing overall trend strength.
The percentages are calculated relative to their maximum values in history (limited by TradingView subscription), providing insight into the trend's strength for each timeframe.
.........
Overall, the Ultra Moving Average indicator is a comprehensive tool that combines multiple moving average types and advanced trend analysis, helping traders identify market direction and strength at a glance. With its intuitive visualization and flexible settings, it's suited for both beginner and experienced traders.
Special Thanks
I use the TWMA-Function created from RedKTrader to smooth the values.
Special thanks to him for creating and sharing this function!
MTOBVR_CheckOverview.
This indicator checks to see if the OBV follows a specific pattern and visually displays the trend of the OBV on different time legs. It also has the ability to set alerts when certain conditions are met.
How to use
Setting up the indicator
Add a new indicator on a chart in TradingView.
Copy the code into the “Pine Script™ Editor” and save it as a new script.
Apply the script to your chart.
Indicator Functions
OBV Calculation
Calculates OBV for each time frame (5-minute, 15-minute, 30-minute, 1-hour, 4-hour, daily, and weekly) and displays it on the chart OBV is an indicator that combines price changes and trading volume.
Pattern Detection
Detects whether a particular pattern, such as a double or triple bottom, appears in the OBV. This allows us to identify buy or sell signals.
When these patterns are detected, the background color changes.
Background Color Change
When an OBV forms a particular pattern, the background color of the chart changes. This provides visual confirmation that a pattern has appeared.
Minimum pattern (min_bool): when the 5-, 15-, and 30-minute conditions for OBV are met.
High hourly pattern (h_bool): when the condition is met for the 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily legs of the OBV.
One-week pattern (range_obv_1w_bool): when the condition is met for the 1-week OBV pattern.
When all conditions are met: when the minimum pattern, high hourly pattern, and one-week pattern are all met.
Alert Settings
You can set alerts when certain conditions are met. This allows you to receive signals in real time.
Minimum conditions (min_bool): conditions at 5, 15, and 30 minutes of OBV.
High timeframe condition (h_bool): condition on the 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily legs of the OBV.
When all conditions are met: When all of the above conditions are met.
One-week condition (range_obv_1w_bool): Condition for the one-week leg of the OBV.
When all conditions are met: when the minimum, high time leg, and one week conditions are all met.
Arrows
OBV_ALL_UP: A green triangle arrow is displayed when the OBV is rising on all time legs.
OBV_ALL_DOWN: A red triangle arrow appears when the OBV is falling on all time legs.
Usage Notes
Time Leg Settings: This script uses OBVs of different time legs to detect patterns. Depending on the time leg used, appropriate settings and interpretation are required.
Alert settings: In order to activate the alert function, the alert conditions and notification method must be configured using TradingView's alert system.
This indicator allows you to visually see trends and patterns in the OBV across multiple time frames, allowing you to make more informed trading decisions.
Trend Strength | Flux Charts💎 GENERAL OVERVIEW
Introducing the new Trend Strength indicator! Latest trends and their strengths play an important role for traders. This indicator aims to make trend and strength detection much easier by coloring candlesticks based on the current strength of trend. More info about the process in the "How Does It Work" section.
Features of the new Trend Strength Indicator :
3 Trend Detection Algorithms Combined (RSI, Supertrend & EMA Cross)
Fully Customizable Algorithm
Strength Labels
Customizable Colors For Bullish, Neutral & Bearish Trends
📌 HOW DOES IT WORK ?
This indicator uses three different methods of trend detection and combines them all into one value. First, the RSI is calculated. The RSI outputs a value between 0 & 100, which this indicator maps into -100 <-> 100. Let this value be named RSI. Then, the Supertrend is calculated. Let SPR be -1 if the calculated Supertrend is bearish, and 1 if it's bullish. After that, latest EMA Cross is calculated. This is done by checking the distance between the two EMA's adjusted by the user. Let EMADiff = EMA1 - EMA2. Then EMADiff is mapped from -ATR * 2 <-> ATR * 2 to -100 <-> 100.
Then a Total Strength (TS) is calculated by given formula : RSI * 0.5 + SPR * 0.2 + EMADiff * 0.3
The TS value is between -100 <-> 100, -100 being fully bearish, 0 being true neutral and 100 being fully bullish.
Then the Total Strength is converted into a color adjusted by the user. The candlesticks in the chart will be presented with the calculated color.
If the Labels setting is enabled, each time the trend changes direction a label will appear indicating the new direction. The latest candlestick will always show the current trend with a label.
EMA = Exponential Moving Average
RSI = Relative Strength Index
ATR = Average True Range
🚩 UNIQUENESS
The main point that differentiates this indicator from others is it's simplicity and customization options. The indicator interprets trend and strength detection in it's own way, combining 3 different well-known trend detection methods: RSI, Supertrend & EMA Cross into one simple method. The algorithm is fully customizable and all styling options are adjustable for the user's liking.
⚙️ SETTINGS
1. General Configuration
Detection Length -> This setting determines the amount of candlesticks the indicator will look for trend detection. Higher settings may help the indicator find longer trends, while lower settings will help with finding smaller trends.
Smoothing -> Higher settings will result in longer periods of time required for trend to change direction from bullish to bearish and vice versa.
EMA Lengths -> You can enter two EMA Lengths here, the second one must be longer than the first one. When the shorter one crosses under the longer one, this will be a bearish sign, and if it crosses above it will be a bullish sign for the indicator.
Labels -> Enables / Disables trend strength labels.
Multiple Naked LevelsPURPOSE OF THE INDICATOR
This indicator autogenerates and displays naked levels and gaps of multiple types collected into one simple and easy to use indicator.
VALUE PROPOSITION OF THE INDICATOR AND HOW IT IS ORIGINAL AND USEFUL
1) CONVENIENCE : The purpose of this indicator is to offer traders with one coherent and robust indicator providing useful, valuable, and often used levels - in one place.
2) CLUSTERS OF CONFLUENCES : With this indicator it is easy to identify levels and zones on the chart with multiple confluences increasing the likelihood of a potential reversal zone.
THE TYPES OF LEVELS AND GAPS INCLUDED IN THE INDICATOR
The types of levels include the following:
1) PIVOT levels (Daily/Weekly/Monthly) depicted in the chart as: dnPIV, wnPIV, mnPIV.
2) POC (Point of Control) levels (Daily/Weekly/Monthly) depicted in the chart as: dnPoC, wnPoC, mnPoC.
3) VAH/VAL STD 1 levels (Value Area High/Low with 1 std) (Daily/Weekly/Monthly) depicted in the chart as: dnVAH1/dnVAL1, wnVAH1/wnVAL1, mnVAH1/mnVAL1
4) VAH/VAL STD 2 levels (Value Area High/Low with 2 std) (Daily/Weekly/Monthly) depicted in the chart as: dnVAH2/dnVAL2, wnVAH2/wnVAL2, mnVAH1/mnVAL2
5) FAIR VALUE GAPS (Daily/Weekly/Monthly) depicted in the chart as: dnFVG, wnFVG, mnFVG.
6) CME GAPS (Daily) depicted in the chart as: dnCME.
7) EQUILIBRIUM levels (Daily/Weekly/Monthly) depicted in the chart as dnEQ, wnEQ, mnEQ.
HOW-TO ACTIVATE LEVEL TYPES AND TIMEFRAMES AND HOW-TO USE THE INDICATOR
You can simply choose which of the levels to be activated and displayed by clicking on the desired radio button in the settings menu.
You can locate the settings menu by clicking into the Object Tree window, left-click on the Multiple Naked Levels and select Settings.
You will then get a menu of different level types and timeframes. Click the checkboxes for the level types and timeframes that you want to display on the chart.
You can then go into the chart and check out which naked levels that have appeared. You can then use those levels as part of your technical analysis.
The levels displayed on the chart can serve as additional confluences or as part of your overall technical analysis and indicators.
In order to back-test the impact of the different naked levels you can also enable tapped levels to be depicted on the chart. Do this by toggling the 'Show tapped levels' checkbox.
Keep in mind however that Trading View can not shom more than 500 lines and text boxes so the indocator will not be able to give you the complete history back to the start for long duration assets.
In order to clean up the charts a little bit there are two additional settings that can be used in the Settings menu:
- Selecting the price range (%) from the current price to be included in the chart. The default is 25%. That means that all levels below or above 20% will not be displayed. You can set this level yourself from 0 up to 100%.
- Selecting the minimum gap size to include on the chart. The default is 1%. That means that all gaps/ranges below 1% in price difference will not be displayed on the chart. You can set the minimum gap size yourself.
BASIC DESCRIPTION OF THE INNER WORKINGS OF THE INDICTATOR
The way the indicator works is that it calculates and identifies all levels from the list of levels type and timeframes above. The indicator then adds this level to a list of untapped levels.
Then for each bar after, it checks if the level has been tapped. If the level has been tapped or a gap/range completely filled, this level is removed from the list so that the levels displayed in the end are only naked/untapped levels.
Below is a descrition of each of the level types and how it is caluclated (algorithm):
PIVOT
Daily, Weekly and Monthly levels in trading refer to significant price points that traders monitor within the context of a single trading day. These levels can provide insights into market behavior and help traders make informed decisions regarding entry and exit points.
Traders often use D/W/M levels to set entry and exit points for trades. For example, entering long positions near support (daily close) or selling near resistance (daily close).
Daily levels are used to set stop-loss orders. Placing stops just below the daily close for long positions or above the daily close for short positions can help manage risk.
The relationship between price movement and daily levels provides insights into market sentiment. For instance, if the price fails to break above the daily high, it may signify bearish sentiment, while a strong breakout can indicate bullish sentiment.
The way these levels are calculated in this indicator is based on finding pivots in the chart on D/W/M timeframe. The level is then set to previous D/W/M close = current D/W/M open.
In addition, when price is going up previous D/W/M open must be smaller than previous D/W/M close and current D/W/M close must be smaller than the current D/W/M open. When price is going down the opposite.
POINT OF CONTROL
The Point of Control (POC) is a key concept in volume profile analysis, which is commonly used in trading.
It represents the price level at which the highest volume of trading occurred during a specific period.
The POC is derived from the volume traded at various price levels over a defined time frame. In this indicator the timeframes are Daily, Weekly, and Montly.
It identifies the price level where the most trades took place, indicating strong interest and activity from traders at that price.
The POC often acts as a significant support or resistance level. If the price approaches the POC from above, it may act as a support level, while if approached from below, it can serve as a resistance level. Traders monitor the POC to gauge potential reversals or breakouts.
The way the POC is calculated in this indicator is by an approximation by analysing intrabars for the respective timeperiod (D/W/M), assigning the volume for each intrabar into the price-bins that the intrabar covers and finally identifying the bin with the highest aggregated volume.
The POC is the price in the middle of this bin.
The indicator uses a sample space for intrabars on the Daily timeframe of 15 minutes, 35 minutes for the Weekly timeframe, and 140 minutes for the Monthly timeframe.
The indicator has predefined the size of the bins to 0.2% of the price at the range low. That implies that the precision of the calulated POC og VAH/VAL is within 0.2%.
This reduction of precision is a tradeoff for performance and speed of the indicator.
This also implies that the bigger the difference from range high prices to range low prices the more bins the algorithm will iterate over. This is typically the case when calculating the monthly volume profile levels and especially high volatility assets such as alt coins.
Sometimes the number of iterations becomes too big for Trading View to handle. In these cases the bin size will be increased even more to reduce the number of iterations.
In such cases the bin size might increase by a factor of 2-3 decreasing the accuracy of the Volume Profile levels.
Anyway, since these Volume Profile levels are approximations and since precision is traded for performance the user should consider the Volume profile levels(POC, VAH, VAL) as zones rather than pin point accurate levels.
VALUE AREA HIGH/LOW STD1/STD2
The Value Area High (VAH) and Value Area Low (VAL) are important concepts in volume profile analysis, helping traders understand price levels where the majority of trading activity occurs for a given period.
The Value Area High/Low is the upper/lower boundary of the value area, representing the highest price level at which a certain percentage of the total trading volume occurred within a specified period.
The VAH/VAL indicates the price point above/below which the majority of trading activity is considered less valuable. It can serve as a potential resistance/support level, as prices above/below this level may experience selling/buying pressure from traders who view the price as overvalued/undervalued
In this indicator the timeframes are Daily, Weekly, and Monthly. This indicator provides two boundaries that can be selected in the menu.
The first boundary is 70% of the total volume (=1 standard deviation from mean). The second boundary is 95% of the total volume (=2 standard deviation from mean).
The way VAH/VAL is calculated is based on the same algorithm as for the POC.
However instead of identifying the bin with the highest volume, we start from range low and sum up the volume for each bin until the aggregated volume = 30%/70% for VAL1/VAH1 and aggregated volume = 5%/95% for VAL2/VAH2.
Then we simply set the VAL/VAH equal to the low of the respective bin.
FAIR VALUE GAPS
Fair Value Gaps (FVG) is a concept primarily used in technical analysis and price action trading, particularly within the context of futures and forex markets. They refer to areas on a price chart where there is a noticeable lack of trading activity, often highlighted by a significant price movement away from a previous level without trading occurring in between.
FVGs represent price levels where the market has moved significantly without any meaningful trading occurring. This can be seen as a "gap" on the price chart, where the price jumps from one level to another, often due to a rapid market reaction to news, events, or other factors.
These gaps typically appear when prices rise or fall quickly, creating a space on the chart where no transactions have taken place. For example, if a stock opens sharply higher and there are no trades at the prices in between the two levels, it creates a gap. The areas within these gaps can be areas of liquidity that the market may return to “fill” later on.
FVGs highlight inefficiencies in pricing and can indicate areas where the market may correct itself. When the market moves rapidly, it may leave behind price levels that traders eventually revisit to establish fair value.
Traders often watch for these gaps as potential reversal or continuation points. Many traders believe that price will eventually “fill” the gap, meaning it will return to those price levels, providing potential entry or exit points.
This indicator calculate FVGs on three different timeframes, Daily, Weekly and Montly.
In this indicator the FVGs are identified by looking for a three-candle pattern on a chart, signalling a discrete imbalance in order volume that prompts a quick price adjustment. These gaps reflect moments where the market sentiment strongly leans towards buying or selling yet lacks the opposite orders to maintain price stability.
The indicator sets the gap to the difference from the high of the first bar to the low of the third bar when price is moving up or from the low of the first bar to the high of the third bar when price is moving down.
CME GAPS (BTC only)
CME gaps refer to price discrepancies that can occur in charts for futures contracts traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). These gaps typically arise from the fact that many futures markets, including those on the CME, operate nearly 24 hours a day but may have significant price movements during periods when the market is closed.
CME gaps occur when there is a difference between the closing price of a futures contract on one trading day and the opening price on the following trading day. This difference can create a "gap" on the price chart.
Opening Gaps: These usually happen when the market opens significantly higher or lower than the previous day's close, often influenced by news, economic data releases, or other market events occurring during non-trading hours.
Gaps can result from reactions to major announcements or developments, such as earnings reports, geopolitical events, or changes in economic indicators, leading to rapid price movements.
The importance of CME Gaps in Trading is the potential for Filling Gaps: Many traders believe that prices often "fill" gaps, meaning that prices may return to the gap area to establish fair value.
This can create potential trading opportunities based on the expectation of gap filling. Gaps can act as significant support or resistance levels. Traders monitor these levels to identify potential reversal points in price action.
The way the gap is identified in this indicator is by checking if current open is higher than previous bar close when price is moving up or if current open is lower than previous day close when price is moving down.
EQUILIBRIUM
Equilibrium in finance and trading refers to a state where supply and demand in a market balance each other, resulting in stable prices. It is a key concept in various economic and trading contexts. Here’s a concise description:
Market Equilibrium occurs when the quantity of a good or service supplied equals the quantity demanded at a specific price level. At this point, there is no inherent pressure for the price to change, as buyers and sellers are in agreement.
Equilibrium Price is the price at which the market is in equilibrium. It reflects the point where the supply curve intersects the demand curve on a graph. At the equilibrium price, the market clears, meaning there are no surplus goods or shortages.
In this indicator the equilibrium level is calculated simply by finding the midpoint of the Daily, Weekly, and Montly candles respectively.
NOTES
1) Performance. The algorithms are quite resource intensive and the time it takes the indicator to calculate all the levels could be 5 seconds or more, depending on the number of bars in the chart and especially if Montly Volume Profile levels are selected (POC, VAH or VAL).
2) Levels displayed vs the selected chart timeframe. On a timeframe smaller than the daily TF - both Daily, Weekly, and Monthly levels will be displayed. On a timeframe bigger than the daily TF but smaller than the weekly TF - the Weekly and Monthly levels will be display but not the Daily levels. On a timeframe bigger than the weekly TF but smaller than the monthly TF - only the Monthly levels will be displayed. Not Daily and Weekly.
CREDITS
The core algorithm for calculating the POC levels is based on the indicator "Naked Intrabar POC" developed by rumpypumpydumpy (https:www.tradingview.com/u/rumpypumpydumpy/).
The "Naked intrabar POC" indicator calculates the POC on the current chart timeframe.
This indicator (Multiple Naked Levels) adds two new features:
1) It calculates the POC on three specific timeframes, the Daily, Weekly, and Monthly timeframes - not only the current chart timeframe.
2) It adds functionaly by calculating the VAL and VAH of the volume profile on the Daily, Weekly, Monthly timeframes .
