Bifurcation Zone - CAEBifurcation Zone — Cognitive Adversarial Engine (BZ-CAE)
Bifurcation Zone — CAE (BZ-CAE) is a next-generation divergence detection system enhanced by a Cognitive Adversarial Engine that evaluates both sides of every potential trade before presenting signals. Unlike traditional divergence indicators that show every price-oscillator disagreement regardless of context, BZ-CAE applies comprehensive market-state intelligence to identify only the divergences that occur in favorable conditions with genuine probability edges.
The system identifies structural bifurcation points — critical junctures where price and momentum disagree, signaling potential reversals or continuations — then validates these opportunities through five interconnected intelligence layers: Trend Conviction Scoring , Directional Momentum Alignment , Multi-Factor Exhaustion Modeling , Adversarial Validation , and Confidence Scoring . The result is a selective, context-aware signal system that filters noise and highlights high-probability setups.
This is not a "buy the arrow" indicator. It's a decision support framework that teaches you how to read market state, evaluate divergence quality, and make informed trading decisions based on quantified intelligence rather than hope.
What Sets BZ-CAE Apart: Technical Architecture
The Problem With Traditional Divergence Indicators
Most divergence indicators operate on a simple rule: if price makes a higher high and RSI makes a lower high, show a bearish signal. If price makes a lower low and RSI makes a higher low, show a bullish signal. This creates several critical problems:
Context Blindness : They show counter-trend signals in powerful trends that rarely reverse, leading to repeated losses as you fade momentum.
Signal Spam : Every minor price-oscillator disagreement generates an alert, overwhelming you with low-quality setups and creating analysis paralysis.
No Quality Ranking : All signals are treated identically. A marginal divergence in choppy conditions receives the same visual treatment as a high-conviction setup at a major exhaustion point.
Single-Sided Evaluation : They ask "Is this a good long?" without checking if the short case is overwhelmingly stronger, leading you into obvious bad trades.
Static Configuration : You manually choose RSI 14 or Stochastic 14 and hope it works, with no systematic way to validate if that's optimal for your instrument.
BZ-CAE's Solution: Cognitive Adversarial Intelligence
BZ-CAE solves these problems through an integrated five-layer intelligence architecture:
1. Trend Conviction Score (TCS) — 0 to 1 Scale
Most indicators check if ADX is above 25 to determine "trending" conditions. This binary approach misses nuance. TCS is a weighted composite metric:
Formula : 0.35 × normalize(ADX, 10, 35) + 0.35 × structural_strength + 0.30 × htf_alignment
Structural Strength : 10-bar SMA of consecutive directional bars. Captures persistence — are bulls or bears consistently winning?
HTF Alignment : Multi-timeframe EMA stacking (20/50/100/200). When all EMAs align in the same direction, you're in institutional trend territory.
Purpose : Quantifies how "locked in" the trend is. When TCS exceeds your threshold (default 0.80), the system knows to avoid counter-trend trades unless other factors override.
Interpretation :
TCS > 0.85: Very strong trend — counter-trading is extremely high risk
TCS 0.70-0.85: Strong trend — favor continuation, require exhaustion for reversals
TCS 0.50-0.70: Moderate trend — context matters, both directions viable
TCS < 0.50: Weak/choppy — reversals more viable, range-bound conditions
2. Directional Momentum Alignment (DMA) — ATR-Normalized
Formula : (EMA21 - EMA55) / ATR14
This isn't just "price above EMA" — it's a regime-aware momentum gauge. The same $100 price movement reads completely differently in high-volatility crypto versus low-volatility forex. By normalizing with ATR, DMA adapts its interpretation to current market conditions.
Purpose : Quantifies the directional "force" behind current price action. Positive = bullish push, negative = bearish push. Magnitude = strength.
Interpretation :
DMA > 0.7: Strong bullish momentum — bearish divergences risky
DMA 0.3 to 0.7: Moderate bullish bias
DMA -0.3 to 0.3: Balanced/choppy conditions
DMA -0.7 to -0.3: Moderate bearish bias
DMA < -0.7: Strong bearish momentum — bullish divergences risky
3. Multi-Factor Exhaustion Modeling — 0 to 1 Probability
Single-metric exhaustion detection (like "RSI > 80") misses complex market states. BZ-CAE aggregates five independent exhaustion signals:
Volume Spikes : Current volume versus 50-bar average
2.5x average: 0.25 weight
2.0x average: 0.15 weight
1.5x average: 0.10 weight
Divergence Present : The fact that a divergence exists contributes 0.30 weight — structural momentum disagreement is itself an exhaustion signal.
RSI Extremes : Captures oscillator climax zones
RSI > 80 or < 20: 0.25 weight
RSI > 75 or < 25: 0.15 weight
Pin Bar Detection : Identifies rejection candles (2:1 wick-to-body ratio, indicating failed breakout attempts): 0.15 weight
Extended Runs : Consecutive bars above/below EMA20 without pullback
30+ bars: 0.15 weight (market hasn't paused to consolidate)
Total exhaustion score is the sum of all applicable weights, capped at 1.0.
Purpose : Detects when strong trends become vulnerable to reversal. High exhaustion can override trend filters, allowing counter-trend trades at genuine turning points that basic indicators would miss.
Interpretation :
Exhaustion > 0.75: High probability of climax — yellow background shading alerts you visually
Exhaustion 0.50-0.75: Moderate overextension — watch for confirmation
Exhaustion < 0.50: Fresh move — trend can continue, counter-trend trades higher risk
4. Adversarial Validation — Game Theory Applied to Trading
This is BZ-CAE's signature innovation. Before approving any signal, the engine quantifies BOTH sides of the trade simultaneously:
For Bullish Divergences , it calculates:
Bull Case Score (0-1+) :
Distance below EMA20 (pullback quality): up to 0.25
Bullish EMA alignment (close > EMA20 > EMA50): 0.25
Oversold RSI (< 40): 0.25
Volume confirmation (> 1.2x average): 0.25
Bear Case Score (0-1+) :
Price below EMA50 (structural weakness): 0.30
Very oversold RSI (< 30, indicating knife-catching): 0.20
Differential = Bull Case - Bear Case
If differential < -0.10 (default threshold), the bear case is dominating — signal is BLOCKED or ANNOTATED.
For Bearish Divergences , the logic inverts (Bear Case vs Bull Case).
Purpose : Prevents trades where you're fighting obvious strength in the opposite direction. This is institutional-grade risk management — don't just evaluate your trade, evaluate the counter-trade simultaneously.
Why This Matters : You might see a bullish divergence at a local low, but if price is deeply below major support EMAs with strong bearish momentum, you're catching a falling knife. The adversarial check catches this and blocks the signal.
5. Confidence Scoring — 0 to 1 Quality Assessment
Every signal that passes initial filters receives a comprehensive quality score:
Formula :
0.30 × normalize(TCS) // Trend context
+ 0.25 × normalize(|DMA|) // Momentum magnitude
+ 0.20 × pullback_quality // Entry distance from EMA20
+ 0.15 × state_quality // ADX + alignment + structure
+ 0.10 × divergence_strength // Slope separation magnitude
+ adversarial_bonus (0-0.30) // Your side's advantage
Purpose : Ranks setup quality for filtering and position sizing decisions. You can set a minimum confidence threshold (default 0.35) to ensure only quality setups reach your chart.
Interpretation :
Confidence > 0.70: Premium setup — consider increased position size
Confidence 0.50-0.70: Good quality — standard size
Confidence 0.35-0.50: Acceptable — reduced size or skip if conservative
Confidence < 0.35: Marginal — blocked in Filtering mode, annotated in Advisory mode
CAE Operating Modes: Learning vs Enforcement
Off : Disables all CAE logic. Raw divergence pipeline only. Use for baseline comparison.
Advisory : Shows ALL signals regardless of CAE evaluation, but annotates signals that WOULD be blocked with specific warnings (e.g., "Bull: strong downtrend (TCS=0.87)" or "Adversarial bearish"). This is your learning mode — see CAE's decision logic in action without missing educational opportunities.
Filtering : Actively blocks low-quality signals. Only setups that pass all enabled gates (Trend Filter, Adversarial Validation, Confidence Gating) reach your chart. This is your live trading mode — trust the system to enforce discipline.
CAE Filter Gates: Three-Layer Protection
When CAE is enabled, signals must pass through three independent gates (each can be toggled on/off):
Gate 1: Strong Trend Filter
If TCS ≥ tcs_threshold (default 0.80)
And signal is counter-trend (bullish in downtrend or bearish in uptrend)
And exhaustion < exhaustion_required (default 0.50)
Then: BLOCK signal
Logic: Don't fade strong trends unless the move is clearly overextended
Gate 2: Adversarial Validation
Calculate both bull case and bear case scores
If opposing case dominates by more than adv_threshold (default 0.10)
Then: BLOCK signal
Logic: Avoid trades where you're fighting obvious strength in the opposite direction
Gate 3: Confidence Gating
Calculate composite confidence score (0-1)
If confidence < min_confidence (default 0.35)
Then: In Filtering mode, BLOCK signal; in Advisory mode, ANNOTATE with warning
Logic: Only take setups with minimum quality threshold
All three gates work together. A signal must pass ALL enabled gates to fire.
Visual Intelligence System
Bifurcation Zones (Supply/Demand Blocks)
When a divergence signal fires, BZ-CAE draws a semi-transparent box extending 15 bars forward from the signal pivot:
Demand Zones (Bullish) : Theme-colored box (cyan in Cyberpunk, blue in Professional, etc.) labeled "Demand" — marks where smart money likely placed buy orders as price diverged at the low.
Supply Zones (Bearish) : Theme-colored box (magenta in Cyberpunk, orange in Professional) labeled "Supply" — marks where smart money likely placed sell orders as price diverged at the high.
Theory : Divergences represent institutional disagreement with the crowd. The crowd pushed price to an extreme (new high or low), but momentum (oscillator) is waning, indicating smart money is taking the opposite side. These zones mark order placement areas that become future support/resistance.
Use Cases :
Exit targets: Take profit when price returns to opposite-side zone
Re-entry levels: If price returns to your entry zone, consider adding
Stop placement: Place stops just beyond your zone (below demand, above supply)
Auto-Cleanup : System keeps the last 20 zones to prevent chart clutter.
Adversarial Bar Coloring — Real-Time Market Debate Heatmap
Each bar is colored based on the Bull Case vs Bear Case differential:
Strong Bull Advantage (diff > 0.3): Full theme bull color (e.g., cyan)
Moderate Bull Advantage (diff > 0.1): 50% transparency bull
Neutral (diff -0.1 to 0.1): Gray/neutral theme
Moderate Bear Advantage (diff < -0.1): 50% transparency bear
Strong Bear Advantage (diff < -0.3): Full theme bear color (e.g., magenta)
This creates a real-time visual heatmap showing which side is "winning" the market debate. When bars flip from cyan to magenta (or vice versa), you're witnessing a shift in adversarial advantage — a leading indicator of potential momentum changes.
Exhaustion Shading
When exhaustion score exceeds 0.75, the chart background displays a semi-transparent yellow highlight. This immediate visual warning alerts you that the current move is at high risk of reversal, even if trend indicators remain strong.
Visual Themes — Six Aesthetic Options
Cyberpunk : Cyan/Magenta/Yellow — High contrast, neon aesthetic, excellent for dark-themed trading environments
Professional : Blue/Orange/Green — Corporate color palette, suitable for presentations and professional documentation
Ocean : Teal/Red/Cyan — Aquatic palette, calming for extended monitoring sessions
Fire : Orange/Red/Coral — Warm aggressive colors, high energy
Matrix : Green/Red/Lime — Code aesthetic, homage to classic hacker visuals
Monochrome : White/Gray — Minimal distraction, maximum focus on price action
All visual elements (signal markers, zones, bar colors, dashboard) adapt to your selected theme.
Divergence Engine — Core Detection System
What Are Divergences?
Divergences occur when price action and momentum indicators disagree, creating structural tension that often resolves in a change of direction:
Regular Divergence (Reversal Signal) :
Bearish Regular : Price makes higher high, oscillator makes lower high → Potential trend reversal down
Bullish Regular : Price makes lower low, oscillator makes higher low → Potential trend reversal up
Hidden Divergence (Continuation Signal) :
Bearish Hidden : Price makes lower high, oscillator makes higher high → Downtrend continuation
Bullish Hidden : Price makes higher low, oscillator makes lower low → Uptrend continuation
Both types can be enabled/disabled independently in settings.
Pivot Detection Methods
BZ-CAE uses symmetric pivot detection with separate lookback and lookforward periods (default 5/5):
Pivot High : Bar where high > all highs within lookback range AND high > all highs within lookforward range
Pivot Low : Bar where low < all lows within lookback range AND low < all lows within lookforward range
This ensures structural validity — the pivot must be a clear local extreme, not just a minor wiggle.
Divergence Validation Requirements
For a divergence to be confirmed, it must satisfy:
Slope Disagreement : Price slope and oscillator slope must move in opposite directions (for regular divs) or same direction with inverted highs/lows (for hidden divs)
Minimum Slope Change : |osc_slope| > min_slope_change / 100 (default 1.0) — filters weak, marginal divergences
Maximum Lookback Range : Pivots must be within max_lookback bars (default 60) — prevents ancient, irrelevant divergences
ATR-Normalized Strength : Divergence strength = min(|price_slope| × |osc_slope| × 10, 1.0) — quantifies the magnitude of disagreement in volatility context
Regular divergences receive 1.0× weight; hidden divergences receive 0.8× weight (slightly less reliable historically).
Oscillator Options — Five Professional Indicators
RSI (Relative Strength Index) : Classic overbought/oversold momentum indicator. Best for: General purpose divergence detection across all instruments.
Stochastic : Range-bound %K momentum comparing close to high-low range. Best for: Mean reversion strategies and range-bound markets.
CCI (Commodity Channel Index) : Measures deviation from statistical mean, auto-normalized to 0-100 scale. Best for: Cyclical instruments and commodities.
MFI (Money Flow Index) : Volume-weighted RSI incorporating money flow. Best for: Volume-driven markets like stocks and crypto.
Williams %R : Inverse stochastic looking back over period, auto-adjusted to 0-100. Best for: Reversal detection at extremes.
Each oscillator has adjustable length (2-200, default 14) and smoothing (1-20, default 1). You also set overbought (50-100, default 70) and oversold (0-50, default 30) thresholds.
Signal Timing Modes — Understanding Repainting
BZ-CAE offers two timing policies with complete transparency about repainting behavior:
Realtime (1-bar, peak-anchored)
How It Works :
Detects peaks 1 bar ago using pattern: high > high AND high > high
Signal prints on the NEXT bar after peak detection (bar_index)
Visual marker anchors to the actual PEAK bar (bar_index - 1, offset -1)
Signal locks in when bar CONFIRMS (closes)
Repainting Behavior :
On the FORMING bar (before close), the peak condition may change as new prices arrive
Once bar CLOSES (barstate.isconfirmed), signal is locked permanently
This is preview/early warning behavior by design
Best For :
Active monitoring and immediate alerts
Learning the system (seeing signals develop in real-time)
Responsive entry if you're watching the chart live
Confirmed (lookforward)
How It Works :
Uses Pine Script's built-in ta.pivothigh() and ta.pivotlow() functions
Requires full pivot validation period (lookback + lookforward bars)
Signal prints pivot_lookforward bars after the actual peak (default 5-bar delay)
Visual marker anchors to the actual peak bar (offset -pivot_lookforward)
No Repainting Behavior
Best For :
Backtesting and historical analysis
Conservative entries requiring full confirmation
Automated trading systems
Swing trading with larger timeframes
Tradeoff :
Delayed entry by pivot_lookforward bars (typically 5 bars)
On a 5-minute chart, this is a 25-minute delay
On a 4-hour chart, this is a 20-hour delay
Recommendation : Use Confirmed for backtesting to verify system performance honestly. Use Realtime for live monitoring only if you're actively watching the chart and understand pre-confirmation repainting behavior.
Signal Spacing System — Anti-Spam Architecture
Even after CAE filtering, raw divergences can cluster. The spacing system enforces separation:
Three Independent Filters
1. Min Bars Between ANY Signals (default 12):
Prevents rapid-fire clustering across both directions
If last signal (bull or bear) was within N bars, block new signal
Ensures breathing room between all setups
2. Min Bars Between SAME-SIDE Signals (default 24, optional enforcement):
Prevents bull-bull or bear-bear spam
Separate tracking for bullish and bearish signal timelines
Toggle enforcement on/off
3. Min ATR Distance From Last Signal (default 0, optional):
Requires price to move N × ATR from last signal location
Ensures meaningful price movement between setups
0 = disabled, 0.5-2.0 = typical range for enabled
All three filters work independently. A signal must pass ALL enabled filters to proceed.
Practical Guidance :
Scalping (1-5m) : Any 6-10, Same-side 12-20, ATR 0-0.5
Day Trading (15m-1H) : Any 12, Same-side 24, ATR 0-1.0
Swing Trading (4H-D) : Any 20-30, Same-side 40-60, ATR 1.0-2.0
Dashboard — Real-Time Control Center
The dashboard (toggleable, four corner positions, three sizes) provides comprehensive system intelligence:
Oscillator Section
Current oscillator type and value
State: OVERBOUGHT / OVERSOLD / NEUTRAL (color-coded)
Length parameter
Cognitive Engine Section
TCS (Trend Conviction Score) :
Current value with emoji state indicator
🔥 = Strong trend (>0.75)
📊 = Moderate trend (0.50-0.75)
〰️ = Weak/choppy (<0.50)
Color: Red if above threshold (trend filter active), yellow if moderate, green if weak
DMA (Directional Momentum Alignment) :
Current value with emoji direction indicator
🐂 = Bullish momentum (>0.5)
⚖️ = Balanced (-0.5 to 0.5)
🐻 = Bearish momentum (<-0.5)
Color: Green if bullish, red if bearish
Exhaustion :
Current value with emoji warning indicator
⚠️ = High exhaustion (>0.75)
🟡 = Moderate (0.50-0.75)
✓ = Low (<0.50)
Color: Red if high, yellow if moderate, green if low
Pullback :
Quality of current distance from EMA20
Values >0.6 are ideal entry zones (not too close, not too far)
Bull Case / Bear Case (if Adversarial enabled):
Current scores for both sides of the market debate
Differential with emoji indicator:
📈 = Bull advantage (>0.2)
➡️ = Balanced (-0.2 to 0.2)
📉 = Bear advantage (<-0.2)
Last Signal Metrics Section (New Feature)
When a signal fires, this section captures and displays:
Signal type (BULL or BEAR)
Bars elapsed since signal
Confidence % at time of signal
TCS value at signal time
DMA value at signal time
Purpose : Provides a historical reference for learning. You can see what the market state looked like when the last signal fired, helping you correlate outcomes with conditions.
Statistics Section
Total Signals : Lifetime count across session
Blocked Signals : Count and percentage (filter effectiveness metric)
Bull Signals : Total bullish divergences
Bear Signals : Total bearish divergences
Purpose : System health monitoring. If blocked % is very high (>60%), filters may be too strict. If very low (<10%), filters may be too loose.
Advisory Annotations
When CAE Mode = Advisory, this section displays warnings for signals that would be blocked in Filtering mode:
Examples:
"Bull spacing: wait 8 bars"
"Bear: strong uptrend (TCS=0.87)"
"Adversarial bearish"
"Low confidence 32%"
Multiple warnings can stack, separated by " | ". This teaches you CAE's decision logic transparently.
How to Use BZ-CAE — Complete Workflow
Phase 1: Initial Setup (First Session)
Apply BZ-CAE to your chart
Select your preferred Visual Theme (Cyberpunk recommended for visibility)
Set Signal Timing to "Confirmed (lookforward)" for learning
Choose your Oscillator Type (RSI recommended for general use, length 14)
Set Overbought/Oversold to 70/30 (standard)
Enable both Regular Divergence and Hidden Divergence
Set Pivot Lookback/Lookforward to 5/5 (balanced structure)
Enable CAE Intelligence
Set CAE Mode to "Advisory" (learning mode)
Enable all three CAE filters: Strong Trend Filter , Adversarial Validation , Confidence Gating
Enable Show Dashboard , position Top Right, size Normal
Enable Draw Bifurcation Zones and Adversarial Bar Coloring
Phase 2: Learning Period (Weeks 1-2)
Goal : Understand how CAE evaluates market state and filters signals.
Activities :
Watch the dashboard during signals :
Note TCS values when counter-trend signals fail — this teaches you the trend strength threshold for your instrument
Observe exhaustion patterns at actual turning points — learn when overextension truly matters
Study adversarial differential at signal times — see when opposing cases dominate
Review blocked signals (orange X-crosses):
In Advisory mode, you see everything — signals that would pass AND signals that would be blocked
Check the advisory annotations to understand why CAE would block
Track outcomes: Were the blocks correct? Did those signals fail?
Use Last Signal Metrics :
After each signal, check the dashboard capture of confidence, TCS, and DMA
Journal these values alongside trade outcomes
Identify patterns: Do confidence >0.70 signals work better? Does your instrument respect TCS >0.85?
Understand your instrument's "personality" :
Trending instruments (indices, major forex) may need TCS threshold 0.85-0.90
Choppy instruments (low-cap stocks, exotic pairs) may work best with TCS 0.70-0.75
High-volatility instruments (crypto) may need wider spacing
Low-volatility instruments may need tighter spacing
Phase 3: Calibration (Weeks 3-4)
Goal : Optimize settings for your specific instrument, timeframe, and style.
Calibration Checklist :
Min Confidence Threshold :
Review confidence distribution in your signal journal
Identify the confidence level below which signals consistently fail
Set min_confidence slightly above that level
Day trading : 0.35-0.45
Swing trading : 0.40-0.55
Scalping : 0.30-0.40
TCS Threshold :
Find the TCS level where counter-trend signals consistently get stopped out
Set tcs_threshold at or slightly below that level
Trending instruments : 0.85-0.90
Mixed instruments : 0.80-0.85
Choppy instruments : 0.75-0.80
Exhaustion Override Level :
Identify exhaustion readings that marked genuine reversals
Set exhaustion_required just below the average
Typical range : 0.45-0.55
Adversarial Threshold :
Default 0.10 works for most instruments
If you find CAE is too conservative (blocking good trades), raise to 0.15-0.20
If signals are still getting caught in opposing momentum, lower to 0.07-0.09
Spacing Parameters :
Count bars between quality signals in your journal
Set min bars ANY to ~60% of that average
Set min bars SAME-SIDE to ~120% of that average
Scalping : Any 6-10, Same 12-20
Day trading : Any 12, Same 24
Swing : Any 20-30, Same 40-60
Oscillator Selection :
Try different oscillators for 1-2 weeks each
Track win rate and average winner/loser by oscillator type
RSI : Best for general use, clear OB/OS
Stochastic : Best for range-bound, mean reversion
MFI : Best for volume-driven markets
CCI : Best for cyclical instruments
Williams %R : Best for reversal detection
Phase 4: Live Deployment
Goal : Disciplined execution with proven, calibrated system.
Settings Changes :
Switch CAE Mode from Advisory to Filtering
System now actively blocks low-quality signals
Only setups passing all gates reach your chart
Keep Signal Timing on Confirmed for conservative entries
OR switch to Realtime if you're actively monitoring and want faster entries (accept pre-confirmation repaint risk)
Use your calibrated thresholds from Phase 3
Enable high-confidence alerts: "⭐ High Confidence Bullish/Bearish" (>0.70)
Trading Discipline Rules :
Respect Blocked Signals :
If CAE blocks a trade you wanted to take, TRUST THE SYSTEM
Don't manually override — if you consistently disagree, return to Phase 2/3 calibration
The block exists because market state failed intelligence checks
Confidence-Based Position Sizing :
Confidence >0.70: Standard or increased size (e.g., 1.5-2.0% risk)
Confidence 0.50-0.70: Standard size (e.g., 1.0% risk)
Confidence 0.35-0.50: Reduced size (e.g., 0.5% risk) or skip if conservative
TCS-Based Management :
High TCS + counter-trend signal: Use tight stops, quick exits (you're fading momentum)
Low TCS + reversal signal: Use wider stops, trail aggressively (genuine reversal potential)
Exhaustion Awareness :
Exhaustion >0.75 (yellow shading): Market is overextended, reversal risk is elevated — consider early exit or tighter trailing stops even on winning trades
Exhaustion <0.30: Continuation bias — hold for larger move, wide trailing stops
Adversarial Context :
Strong differential against you (e.g., bullish signal with bear diff <-0.2): Use very tight stops, consider skipping
Strong differential with you (e.g., bullish signal with bull diff >0.2): Trail aggressively, this is your tailwind
Practical Settings by Timeframe & Style
Scalping (1-5 Minute Charts)
Objective : High frequency, tight stops, quick reversals in fast-moving markets.
Oscillator :
Type: RSI or Stochastic (fast response to quick moves)
Length: 9-11 (more responsive than standard 14)
Smoothing: 1 (no lag)
OB/OS: 65/35 (looser thresholds ensure frequent crossings in fast conditions)
Divergence :
Pivot Lookback/Lookforward: 3/3 (tight structure, catch small swings)
Max Lookback: 40-50 bars (recent structure only)
Min Slope Change: 0.8-1.0 (don't be overly strict)
CAE :
Mode: Advisory first (learn), then Filtering
Min Confidence: 0.30-0.35 (lower bar for speed, accept more signals)
TCS Threshold: 0.70-0.75 (allow more counter-trend opportunities)
Exhaustion Required: 0.45-0.50 (moderate override)
Strong Trend Filter: ON (still respect major intraday trends)
Adversarial: ON (critical for scalping protection — catches bad entries quickly)
Spacing :
Min Bars ANY: 6-10 (fast pace, many setups)
Min Bars SAME-SIDE: 12-20 (prevent clustering)
Min ATR Distance: 0 or 0.5 (loose)
Timing : Realtime (speed over precision, but understand repaint risk)
Visuals :
Signal Size: Tiny (chart clarity in busy conditions)
Show Zones: Optional (can clutter on low timeframes)
Bar Coloring: ON (helps read momentum shifts quickly)
Dashboard: Small size (corner reference, not main focus)
Key Consideration : Scalping generates noise. Even with CAE, expect lower win rate (45-55%) but aim for favorable R:R (2:1 or better). Size conservatively.
Day Trading (15-Minute to 1-Hour Charts)
Objective : Balance quality and frequency. Standard divergence trading approach.
Oscillator :
Type: RSI or MFI (proven reliability, volume confirmation with MFI)
Length: 14 (industry standard, well-studied)
Smoothing: 1-2
OB/OS: 70/30 (classic levels)
Divergence :
Pivot Lookback/Lookforward: 5/5 (balanced structure)
Max Lookback: 60 bars
Min Slope Change: 1.0 (standard strictness)
CAE :
Mode: Filtering (enforce discipline from the start after brief Advisory learning)
Min Confidence: 0.35-0.45 (quality filter without being too restrictive)
TCS Threshold: 0.80-0.85 (respect strong trends)
Exhaustion Required: 0.50 (balanced override threshold)
Strong Trend Filter: ON
Adversarial: ON
Confidence Gating: ON (all three filters active)
Spacing :
Min Bars ANY: 12 (breathing room between all setups)
Min Bars SAME-SIDE: 24 (prevent bull/bear clusters)
Min ATR Distance: 0-1.0 (optional refinement, typically 0.5-1.0)
Timing : Confirmed (1-bar delay for reliability, no repainting)
Visuals :
Signal Size: Tiny or Small
Show Zones: ON (useful reference for exits/re-entries)
Bar Coloring: ON (context awareness)
Dashboard: Normal size (full visibility)
Key Consideration : This is the "sweet spot" timeframe for BZ-CAE. Market structure is clear, CAE has sufficient data, and signal frequency is manageable. Expect 55-65% win rate with proper execution.
Swing Trading (4-Hour to Daily Charts)
Objective : Quality over quantity. High conviction only. Larger stops and targets.
Oscillator :
Type: RSI or CCI (robust on higher timeframes, smooth longer waves)
Length: 14-21 (capture larger momentum swings)
Smoothing: 1-3
OB/OS: 70/30 or 75/25 (strict extremes)
Divergence :
Pivot Lookback/Lookforward: 5/5 or 7/7 (structural purity, major swings only)
Max Lookback: 80-100 bars (broader historical context)
Min Slope Change: 1.2-1.5 (require strong, undeniable divergence)
CAE :
Mode: Filtering (strict enforcement, premium setups only)
Min Confidence: 0.40-0.55 (high bar for entry)
TCS Threshold: 0.85-0.95 (very strong trend protection — don't fade established HTF trends)
Exhaustion Required: 0.50-0.60 (higher bar for override — only extreme exhaustion justifies counter-trend)
Strong Trend Filter: ON (critical on HTF)
Adversarial: ON (avoid obvious bad trades)
Confidence Gating: ON (quality gate essential)
Spacing :
Min Bars ANY: 20-30 (substantial separation)
Min Bars SAME-SIDE: 40-60 (significant breathing room)
Min ATR Distance: 1.0-2.0 (require meaningful price movement)
Timing : Confirmed (purity over speed, zero repaint for swing accuracy)
Visuals :
Signal Size: Small or Normal (clear markers on zoomed-out view)
Show Zones: ON (important HTF levels)
Bar Coloring: ON (long-term trend awareness)
Dashboard: Normal or Large (comprehensive analysis)
Key Consideration : Swing signals are rare but powerful. Expect 2-5 signals per month per instrument. Win rate should be 60-70%+ due to stringent filtering. Position size can be larger given confidence.
Dashboard Interpretation Reference
TCS (Trend Conviction Score) States
0.00-0.50: Weak/Choppy
Emoji: 〰️
Color: Green/cyan
Meaning: No established trend. Range-bound or consolidating. Both reversal and continuation signals viable.
Action: Reversals (regular divs) are safer. Use wider profit targets (market has room to move). Consider mean reversion strategies.
0.50-0.75: Moderate Trend
Emoji: 📊
Color: Yellow/neutral
Meaning: Developing trend but not locked in. Context matters significantly.
Action: Check DMA and exhaustion. If DMA confirms trend and exhaustion is low, favor continuation (hidden divs). If exhaustion is high, reversals are viable.
0.75-0.85: Strong Trend
Emoji: 🔥
Color: Orange/warning
Meaning: Well-established trend with persistence. Counter-trend is high risk.
Action: Require exhaustion >0.50 for counter-trend entries. Favor continuation signals. Use tight stops on counter-trend attempts.
0.85-1.00: Very Strong Trend
Emoji: 🔥🔥
Color: Red/danger (if counter-trading)
Meaning: Locked-in institutional trend. Extremely high risk to fade.
Action: Avoid counter-trend unless exhaustion >0.75 (yellow shading). Focus exclusively on continuation opportunities. Momentum is king here.
DMA (Directional Momentum Alignment) Zones
-2.0 to -1.0: Strong Bearish Momentum
Emoji: 🐻🐻
Color: Dark red
Meaning: Powerful downside force. Sellers are in control.
Action: Bullish divergences are counter-momentum (high risk). Bearish divergences are with-momentum (lower risk). Size down on longs.
-0.5 to 0.5: Neutral/Balanced
Emoji: ⚖️
Color: Gray/neutral
Meaning: No strong directional bias. Choppy or consolidating.
Action: Both directions have similar probability. Focus on confidence score and adversarial differential for edge.
1.0 to 2.0: Strong Bullish Momentum
Emoji: 🐂🐂
Color: Bright green/cyan
Meaning: Powerful upside force. Buyers are in control.
Action: Bearish divergences are counter-momentum (high risk). Bullish divergences are with-momentum (lower risk). Size down on shorts.
Exhaustion States
0.00-0.50: Fresh Move
Emoji: ✓
Color: Green
Meaning: Trend is healthy, not overextended. Room to run.
Action: Counter-trend trades are premature. Favor continuation. Hold winners for larger moves. Avoid early exits.
0.50-0.75: Mature Move
Emoji: 🟡
Color: Yellow
Meaning: Move is aging. Watch for signs of climax.
Action: Tighten trailing stops on winning trades. Be ready for reversals. Don't add to positions aggressively.
0.75-0.85: High Exhaustion
Emoji: ⚠️
Color: Orange
Background: Yellow shading appears
Meaning: Move is overextended. Reversal risk elevated significantly.
Action: Counter-trend reversals are higher probability. Consider early exits on with-trend positions. Size up on reversal divergences (if CAE allows).
0.85-1.00: Critical Exhaustion
Emoji: ⚠️⚠️
Color: Red
Background: Yellow shading intensifies
Meaning: Climax conditions. Reversal imminent or underway.
Action: Aggressive reversal trades justified. Exit all with-trend positions. This is where major turns occur.
Confidence Score Tiers
0.00-0.30: Low Quality
Color: Red
Status: Blocked in Filtering mode
Action: Skip entirely. Setup lacks fundamental quality across multiple factors.
0.30-0.50: Moderate Quality
Color: Yellow/orange
Status: Marginal — passes in Filtering only if >min_confidence
Action: Reduced position size (0.5-0.75% risk). Tight stops. Conservative profit targets. Skip if you're selective.
0.50-0.70: High Quality
Color: Green/cyan
Status: Good setup across most quality factors
Action: Standard position size (1.0-1.5% risk). Normal stops and targets. This is your bread-and-butter trade.
0.70-1.00: Premium Quality
Color: Bright green/gold
Status: Exceptional setup — all factors aligned
Visual: Double confidence ring appears
Action: Consider increased position size (1.5-2.0% risk, maximum). Wider stops. Larger targets. High probability of success. These are rare — capitalize when they appear.
Adversarial Differential Interpretation
Bull Differential > 0.3 :
Visual: Strong cyan/green bar colors
Meaning: Bull case strongly dominates. Buyers have clear advantage.
Action: Bullish divergences favored (with-advantage). Bearish divergences face headwind (reduce size or skip). Momentum is bullish.
Bull Differential 0.1 to 0.3 :
Visual: Moderate cyan/green transparency
Meaning: Moderate bull advantage. Buyers have edge but not overwhelming.
Action: Both directions viable. Slight bias toward longs.
Differential -0.1 to 0.1 :
Visual: Gray/neutral bars
Meaning: Balanced debate. No clear advantage either side.
Action: Rely on other factors (confidence, TCS, exhaustion) for direction. Adversarial is neutral.
Bear Differential -0.3 to -0.1 :
Visual: Moderate red/magenta transparency
Meaning: Moderate bear advantage. Sellers have edge but not overwhelming.
Action: Both directions viable. Slight bias toward shorts.
Bear Differential < -0.3 :
Visual: Strong red/magenta bar colors
Meaning: Bear case strongly dominates. Sellers have clear advantage.
Action: Bearish divergences favored (with-advantage). Bullish divergences face headwind (reduce size or skip). Momentum is bearish.
Last Signal Metrics — Post-Trade Analysis
After a signal fires, dashboard captures:
Type : BULL or BEAR
Bars Ago : How long since signal (updates every bar)
Confidence : What was the quality score at signal time
TCS : What was trend conviction at signal time
DMA : What was momentum alignment at signal time
Use Case : Post-trade journaling and learning.
Example: "BULL signal 12 bars ago. Confidence: 68%, TCS: 0.42, DMA: -0.85"
Analysis : This was a bullish reversal (regular div) with good confidence, weak trend (TCS), but strong bearish momentum (DMA). The bet was that momentum would reverse — a counter-momentum play requiring exhaustion confirmation. Check if exhaustion was high at that time to justify the entry.
Track patterns:
Do your best trades have confidence >0.65?
Do low-TCS signals (<0.50) work better for you?
Are you more successful with-momentum (DMA aligned with signal) or counter-momentum?
Troubleshooting Guide
Problem: No Signals Appearing
Symptoms : Chart loads, dashboard shows metrics, but no divergence signals fire.
Diagnosis Checklist :
Check dashboard oscillator value : Is it crossing OB/OS levels (70/30)? If oscillator stays in 40-60 range constantly, it can't reach extremes needed for divergence detection.
Are pivots forming? : Look for local swing highs/lows on your chart. If price is in tight consolidation, pivots may not meet lookback/lookforward requirements.
Is spacing too tight? : Check "Last Signal" metrics — how many bars since last signal? If <12 and your min_bars_ANY is 12, spacing filter is blocking.
Is CAE blocking everything? : Check dashboard Statistics section — what's the blocked signal count? High blocks indicate overly strict filters.
Solutions :
Loosen OB/OS Temporarily :
Try 65/35 to verify divergence detection works
If signals appear, the issue was threshold strictness
Gradually tighten back to 67/33, then 70/30 as appropriate
Lower Min Confidence :
Try 0.25-0.30 (diagnostic level)
If signals appear, filter was too strict
Raise gradually to find sweet spot (0.35-0.45 typical)
Disable Strong Trend Filter Temporarily :
Turn off in CAE settings
If signals appear, TCS threshold was blocking everything
Re-enable and lower TCS_threshold to 0.70-0.75
Reduce Min Slope Change :
Try 0.7-0.8 (from default 1.0)
Allows weaker divergences through
Helpful on low-volatility instruments
Widen Spacing :
Set min_bars_ANY to 6-8
Set min_bars_SAME_SIDE to 12-16
Reduces time between allowed signals
Check Timing Mode :
If using Confirmed, remember there's a pivot_lookforward delay (5+ bars)
Switch to Realtime temporarily to verify system is working
Realtime has no delay but repaints
Verify Oscillator Settings :
Length 14 is standard but might not fit all instruments
Try length 9-11 for faster response
Try length 18-21 for slower, smoother response
Problem: Too Many Signals (Signal Spam)
Symptoms : Dashboard shows 50+ signals in Statistics, confidence scores mostly <0.40, signals clustering close together.
Solutions :
Raise Min Confidence :
Try 0.40-0.50 (quality filter)
Blocks bottom-tier setups
Targets top 50-60% of divergences only
Tighten OB/OS :
Use 70/30 or 75/25
Requires more extreme oscillator readings
Reduces false divergences in mid-range
Increase Min Slope Change :
Try 1.2-1.5 (from default 1.0)
Requires stronger, more obvious divergences
Filters marginal slope disagreements
Raise TCS Threshold :
Try 0.85-0.90 (from default 0.80)
Stricter trend filter blocks more counter-trend attempts
Favors only strongest trend alignment
Enable ALL CAE Gates :
Turn on Trend Filter + Adversarial + Confidence
Triple-layer protection
Blocks aggressively — expect 20-40% reduction in signals
Widen Spacing :
min_bars_ANY: 15-20 (from 12)
min_bars_SAME_SIDE: 30-40 (from 24)
Creates substantial breathing room
Switch to Confirmed Timing :
Removes realtime preview noise
Ensures full pivot validation
5-bar delay filters many false starts
Problem: Signals in Strong Trends Get Stopped Out
Symptoms : You take a bullish divergence in a downtrend (or bearish in uptrend), and it immediately fails. Dashboard showed high TCS at the time.
Analysis : This is INTENDED behavior — CAE is protecting you from low-probability counter-trend trades.
Understanding :
Check Last Signal Metrics in dashboard — what was TCS when signal fired?
If TCS was >0.85 and signal was counter-trend, CAE correctly identified it as high risk
Strong trends rarely reverse cleanly without major exhaustion
Your losses here are the system working as designed (blocking bad odds)
If You Want to Override (Not Recommended) :
Lower TCS_threshold to 0.70-0.75 (allows more counter-trend)
Lower exhaustion_required to 0.40 (easier override)
Disable Strong Trend Filter entirely (very risky)
Better Approach :
TRUST THE FILTER — it's preventing costly mistakes
Wait for exhaustion >0.75 (yellow shading) before counter-trending strong TCS
Focus on continuation signals (hidden divs) in high-TCS environments
Use Advisory mode to see what CAE is blocking and learn from outcomes
Problem: Adversarial Blocking Seems Wrong
Symptoms : You see a divergence that "looks good" visually, but CAE blocks with "Adversarial bearish/bullish" warning.
Diagnosis :
Check dashboard Bull Case and Bear Case scores at that moment
Look at Differential value
Check adversarial bar colors — was there strong coloring against your intended direction?
Understanding :
Adversarial catches "obvious" opposing momentum that's easy to miss
Example: Bullish divergence at a local low, BUT price is deeply below EMA50, bearish momentum is strong, and RSI shows knife-catching conditions
Bull Case might be 0.20 while Bear Case is 0.55
Differential = -0.35, far beyond threshold
Block is CORRECT — you'd be fighting overwhelming opposing flow
If You Disagree Consistently
Review blocked signals on chart — scroll back and check outcomes
Did those blocked signals actually work, or did they fail as adversarial predicted?
Raise adv_threshold to 0.15-0.20 (more permissive, allows closer battles)
Disable Adversarial Validation temporarily (diagnostic) to isolate its effect
Use Advisory mode to learn adversarial patterns over 50-100 signals
Remember : Adversarial is conservative BY DESIGN. It prevents "obvious" bad trades where you're fighting strong strength the other way.
Problem: Dashboard Not Showing or Incomplete
Solutions :
Toggle "Show Dashboard" to ON in settings
Try different dashboard sizes (Small/Normal/Large)
Try different positions (Top Left/Right, Bottom Left/Right) — might be off-screen
Some sections require CAE Enable = ON (Cognitive Engine section won't appear if CAE is disabled)
Statistics section requires at least 1 lifetime signal to populate
Check that visual theme is set (dashboard colors adapt to theme)
Problem: Performance Lag, Chart Freezing
Symptoms : Chart loading is slow, indicator calculations cause delays, pinch-to-zoom lags.
Diagnosis : Visual features are computationally expensive, especially adversarial bar coloring (recalculates every bar).
Solutions (In Order of Impact) :
Disable Adversarial Bar Coloring (MOST EXPENSIVE):
Turn OFF "Adversarial Bar Coloring" in settings
This is the single biggest performance drain
Immediate improvement
Reduce Vertical Lines :
Lower "Keep last N vertical lines" to 20-30
Or set to 0 to disable entirely
Moderate improvement
Disable Bifurcation Zones :
Turn OFF "Draw Bifurcation Zones"
Reduces box drawing calculations
Moderate improvement
Set Dashboard Size to Small :
Smaller dashboard = fewer cells = less rendering
Minor improvement
Use Shorter Max Lookback :
Reduce max_lookback to 40-50 (from 60+)
Fewer bars to scan for divergences
Minor improvement
Disable Exhaustion Shading :
Turn OFF "Show Market State"
Removes background coloring calculations
Minor improvement
Extreme Performance Mode :
Disable ALL visual enhancements
Keep only triangle markers
Dashboard Small or OFF
Use Minimal theme if available
Problem: Realtime Signals Repainting
Symptoms : You see a signal appear, but on next bar it disappears or moves.
Explanation :
Realtime mode detects peaks 1 bar ago: high > high AND high > high
On the FORMING bar (before close), this condition can change as new prices arrive
Example: At 10:05, high (10:04 bar) was 100, current high is 99 → peak detected
At 10:05:30, new high of 101 arrives → peak condition breaks → signal disappears
At 10:06 (bar close), final high is 101 → no peak at 10:04 anymore → signal gone permanently
This is expected behavior for realtime responsiveness. You get preview/early warning, but it's not locked until bar confirms.
Solutions :
Use Confirmed Timing :
Switch to "Confirmed (lookforward)" mode
ZERO repainting — pivot must be fully validated
5-bar delay (pivot_lookforward)
What you see in history is exactly what would have appeared live
Accept Realtime Repaint as Tradeoff :
Keep Realtime mode for speed and alerts
Understand that pre-confirmation signals may vanish
Only trade signals that CONFIRM at bar close (check barstate.isconfirmed)
Use for live monitoring, NOT for backtesting
Trade Only After Confirmation :
In Realtime mode, wait 1 full bar after signal appears before entering
If signal survives that bar close, it's locked
This adds 1-bar delay but removes repaint risk
Recommendation : Use Confirmed for backtesting and conservative trading. Use Realtime only for active monitoring with full understanding of preview behavior.
Risk Management Integration
BZ-CAE is a signal generation system, not a complete trading strategy. You must integrate proper risk management:
Position Sizing by Confidence
Confidence 0.70-1.00 (Premium) :
Risk: 1.5-2.0% of account (MAXIMUM)
Reasoning: High-quality setup across all factors
Still cap at 2% — even premium setups can fail
Confidence 0.50-0.70 (High Quality) :
Risk: 1.0-1.5% of account
Reasoning: Standard good setup
Your bread-and-butter risk level
Confidence 0.35-0.50 (Moderate Quality) :
Risk: 0.5-1.0% of account
Reasoning: Marginal setup, passes minimum threshold
Reduce size or skip if you're selective
Confidence <0.35 (Low Quality) :
Risk: 0% (blocked in Filtering mode)
Reasoning: Insufficient quality factors
System protects you by not showing these
Stop Placement Strategies
For Reversal Signals (Regular Divergences) :
Place stop beyond the divergence pivot plus buffer
Bullish : Stop below the divergence low - 1.0-1.5 × ATR
Bearish : Stop above the divergence high + 1.0-1.5 × ATR
Reasoning: If price breaks the pivot, divergence structure is invalidated
For Continuation Signals (Hidden Divergences) :
Place stop beyond recent swing in opposite direction
Bullish continuation : Stop below recent swing low (not the divergence pivot itself)
Bearish continuation : Stop above recent swing high
Reasoning: You're trading with trend, allow more breathing room
ATR-Based Stops :
1.5-2.0 × ATR is standard
Scale by timeframe:
Scalping (1-5m): 1.0-1.5 × ATR (tight)
Day trading (15m-1H): 1.5-2.0 × ATR (balanced)
Swing (4H-D): 2.0-3.0 × ATR (wide)
Never Use Fixed Dollar/Pip Stops :
Markets have different volatility
50-pip stop on EUR/USD ≠ 50-pip stop on GBP/JPY
Always normalize by ATR or pivot structure
Profit Targets and Scaling
Primary Target :
2-3 × ATR from entry (minimum 2:1 reward-risk)
Example : Entry at 100, ATR = 2, stop at 97 (1.5 × ATR) → target at 106 (3 × ATR) = 2:1 R:R
Scaling Out Strategy :
Take 50% off at 1.5 × ATR (secure partial profit)
Move stop to breakeven
Trail remaining 50% with 1.0 × ATR trailing stop
Let winners run if trend persists
Targets by Confidence :
High Confidence (>0.70) : Aggressive targets (3-4 × ATR), trail wider (1.5 × ATR)
Standard Confidence (0.50-0.70) : Normal targets (2-3 × ATR), standard trail (1.0 × ATR)
Low Confidence (0.35-0.50) : Conservative targets (1.5-2 × ATR), tight trail (0.75 × ATR)
Use Bifurcation Zones :
If opposite-side zone is visible on chart (from previous signal), use it as target
Example : Bullish signal at 100, prior supply zone at 110 → use 110 as target
Zones mark institutional resistance/support
Exhaustion-Based Exits :
If you're in a trade and exhaustion >0.75 develops (yellow shading), consider early exit
Market is overextended — reversal risk is high
Take profit even if target not reached
Trade Management by TCS
High TCS + Counter-Trend Trade (Risky) :
Use very tight stops (1.0-1.5 × ATR)
Conservative targets (1.5-2 × ATR)
Quick exit if trade doesn't work immediately
You're fading momentum — respect it
Low TCS + Reversal Trade (Safer) :
Use wider stops (2.0-2.5 × ATR)
Aggressive targets (3-4 × ATR)
Trail with patience
Genuine reversal potential in weak trend
High TCS + Continuation Trade (Safest) :
Standard stops (1.5-2.0 × ATR)
Very aggressive targets (4-5 × ATR)
Trail wide (1.5-2.0 × ATR)
You're with institutional momentum — let it run
Educational Value — Learning Machine Intelligence
BZ-CAE is designed as a learning platform, not just a tool:
Advisory Mode as Teacher
Most indicators are binary: signal or no signal. You don't learn WHY certain setups are better.
BZ-CAE's Advisory mode shows you EVERY potential divergence, then annotates the ones that would be blocked in Filtering mode with specific reasons:
"Bull: strong downtrend (TCS=0.87)" teaches you that TCS >0.85 makes counter-trend very risky
"Adversarial bearish" teaches you that the opposing case was dominating
"Low confidence 32%" teaches you that the setup lacked quality across multiple factors
"Bull spacing: wait 8 bars" teaches you that signals need breathing room
After 50-100 signals in Advisory mode, you internalize the CAE's decision logic. You start seeing these factors yourself BEFORE the indicator does.
Dashboard Transparency
Most "intelligent" indicators are black boxes — you don't know how they make decisions.
BZ-CAE shows you ALL metrics in real-time:
TCS tells you trend strength
DMA tells you momentum alignment
Exhaustion tells you overextension
Adversarial shows both sides of the debate
Confidence shows composite quality
You learn to interpret market state holistically, a skill applicable to ANY trading system beyond this indicator.
Divergence Quality Education
Not all divergences are equal. BZ-CAE teaches you which conditions produce high-probability setups:
Quality divergence : Regular bullish div at a low, TCS <0.50 (weak trend), exhaustion >0.75 (overextended), positive adversarial differential, confidence >0.70
Low-quality divergence : Regular bearish div at a high, TCS >0.85 (strong uptrend), exhaustion <0.30 (not overextended), negative adversarial differential, confidence <0.40
After using the system, you can evaluate divergences manually with similar intelligence.
Risk Management Discipline
Confidence-based position sizing teaches you to adjust risk based on setup quality, not emotions:
Beginners often size all trades identically
Or worse, size UP on marginal setups to "make up" for losses
BZ-CAE forces systematic sizing: premium setups get larger size, marginal setups get smaller size
This creates a probabilistic approach where your edge compounds over time.
What This Indicator Is NOT
Complete transparency about limitations and positioning:
Not a Prediction System
BZ-CAE does not predict future prices. It identifies structural divergences (price-momentum disagreements) and assesses current market state (trend, exhaustion, adversarial conditions). It tells you WHEN conditions favor a potential reversal or continuation, not WHAT WILL HAPPEN.
Markets are probabilistic. Even premium-confidence setups fail ~30-40% of the time. The system improves your probability distribution over many trades — it doesn't eliminate risk.
Not Fully Automated
This is a decision support tool, not a trading robot. You must:
Execute trades manually based on signals
Manage positions (stops, targets, trailing)
Apply discretionary judgment (news events, liquidity, context)
Integrate with your broader strategy and risk rules
The confidence scores guide position sizing, but YOU determine final risk allocation based on your account size, risk tolerance, and portfolio context.
Not Beginner-Friendly
BZ-CAE requires understanding of:
Divergence trading concepts (regular vs hidden, reversal vs continuation)
Market state interpretation (trend vs range, momentum, exhaustion)
Basic technical analysis (pivots, support/resistance, EMAs)
Risk management fundamentals (position sizing, stops, R:R)
This is designed for intermediate to advanced traders willing to invest time learning the system. If you want "buy the arrow" simplicity, this isn't the tool.
Not a Holy Grail
There is no perfect indicator. BZ-CAE filters noise and improves signal quality significantly, but:
Losing trades are inevitable (even at 70% win rate, 30% still fail)
Market conditions change rapidly (yesterday's strong trend becomes today's chop)
Black swan events occur (fundamentals override technicals)
Execution matters (slippage, fees, emotional discipline)
The system provides an EDGE, not a guarantee. Your job is to execute that edge consistently with proper risk management over hundreds of trades.
Not Financial Advice
BZ-CAE is an educational and analytical tool. All trading decisions are your responsibility. Past performance (backtested or live) does not guarantee future results. Only risk capital you can afford to lose. Consult a licensed financial advisor for investment advice specific to your situation.
Ideal Market Conditions
Best Performance Characteristics
Liquid Instruments :
Major forex pairs (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY)
Large-cap stocks and index ETFs (SPY, QQQ, AAPL, MSFT)
High-volume crypto (BTC, ETH)
Major commodities (Gold, Oil, Natural Gas)
Reasoning: Clean price structure, clear pivots, meaningful oscillator behavior
Trending with Consolidations :
Markets that trend for 20-40 bars, then consolidate 10-20 bars, repeat
Creates divergences at consolidation boundaries (reversals) and within trends (continuations)
Both regular and hidden divs find opportunities
5-Minute to Daily Timeframes :
Below 5m: too much noise, false pivots, CAE metrics unstable
Above daily: too few signals, edge diminishes (fundamentals dominate)
Sweet spot: 15m to 4H for most traders
Consistent Volume and Participation :
Regular trading sessions (not holidays or thin markets)
Predictable volatility patterns
Avoid instruments with sudden gaps or circuit breakers
Challenging Conditions
Extremely Low Liquidity :
Penny stocks, exotic forex pairs, low-volume crypto
Erratic pivots, unreliable oscillator readings
CAE metrics can't assess market state properly
Very Low Timeframes (1-Minute or Below) :
Dominated by market microstructure noise
Divergences are everywhere but meaningless
CAE filtering helps but still unreliable
Extended Sideways Consolidation :
100+ bars of tight range with no clear pivots
Oscillator hugs midpoint (45-55 range)
No divergences to detect
Fundamentally-Driven Gap Markets :
Earnings releases, economic data, geopolitical events
Price gaps over stops and targets
Technical structure breaks down
Recommendation: Disable trading around known events
Calculation Methodology — Technical Depth
For users who want to understand the math:
Oscillator Computation
Each oscillator type calculates differently, but all normalize to 0-100:
RSI : ta.rsi(close, length) — Standard Relative Strength Index
Stochastic : ta.stoch(high, low, close, length) — %K calculation
CCI : (ta.cci(hlc3, length) + 100) / 2 — Normalized from -100/+100 to 0-100
MFI : ta.mfi(hlc3, length) — Volume-weighted RSI equivalent
Williams %R : ta.wpr(length) + 100 — Inverted stochastic adjusted to 0-100
Smoothing: If smoothing > 1, apply ta.sma(oscillator, smoothing)
Divergence Detection Algorithm
Identify Pivots :
Price high pivot: ta.pivothigh(high, lookback, lookforward)
Price low pivot: ta.pivotlow(low, lookback, lookforward)
Oscillator high pivot: ta.pivothigh(osc, lookback, lookforward)
Oscillator low pivot: ta.pivotlow(osc, lookback, lookforward)
Store Recent Pivots :
Maintain arrays of last 10 pivots with bar indices
When new pivot confirmed, unshift to array, pop oldest if >10
Scan for Slope Disagreements :
Loop through last 5 pivots
For each pair (current pivot, historical pivot):
Check if within max_lookback bars
Calculate slopes: (current - historical) / bars_between
Regular bearish: price_slope > 0, osc_slope < 0, |osc_slope| > min_threshold
Regular bullish: price_slope < 0, osc_slope > 0, |osc_slope| > min_threshold
Hidden bearish: price_slope < 0, osc_slope > 0, osc_slope > min_threshold
Hidden bullish: price_slope > 0, osc_slope < 0, |osc_slope| > min_threshold
Important Disclaimers and Terms
Performance Disclosure
Past performance, whether backtested or live-traded, does not guarantee future results. Markets change. What works today may not work tomorrow. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have inherent limitations and do not represent actual trading.
Risk of Loss
Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Only trade with risk capital you can afford to lose entirely. The high degree of leverage often available in trading can work against you as well as for you. Leveraged trading may result in losses exceeding your initial deposit.
Not Financial Advice
BZ-CAE is an educational and analytical tool for technical analysis. It is not financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or instrument. All trading decisions are your sole responsibility. Consult a licensed financial advisor for advice specific to your circumstances.
Technical Indicator Limitations
BZ-CAE is a technical analysis tool based on price and volume data. It does not account for:
Fundamental analysis (earnings, economic data, financial health)
Market sentiment and positioning
Geopolitical events and news
Liquidity conditions and market microstructure changes
Regulatory changes or exchange rules
Integrate with broader analysis and strategy. Do not rely solely on technical indicators for trading decisions.
Repainting Acknowledgment
As disclosed throughout this documentation:
Realtime mode may repaint on forming bars before confirmation (by design for preview functionality)
Confirmed mode has zero repainting (fully validated pivots only)
Choose timing mode appropriate for your use case. Understand the tradeoffs.
Testing Recommendation
ALWAYS test on demo/paper accounts before committing real capital. Validate the indicator's behavior on your specific instruments and timeframes. Learn the system thoroughly in Advisory mode before using Filtering mode.
Learning Resources :
In-indicator tooltips (hover over setting names for detailed explanations)
This comprehensive publishing statement (save for reference)
User guide in script comments (top of code)
Final Word — Philosophy of BZ-CAE
BZ-CAE is not designed to replace your judgment — it's designed to enhance it.
The indicator identifies structural inflection points (bifurcations) where price and momentum disagree. The Cognitive Engine evaluates market state to determine if this disagreement is meaningful or noise. The Adversarial model debates both sides of the trade to catch obvious bad setups. The Confidence system ranks quality so you can choose your risk appetite.
But YOU still execute. YOU still manage risk. YOU still learn from outcomes.
This is intelligence amplification, not intelligence replacement.
Use Advisory mode to learn how expert traders evaluate market state. Use Filtering mode to enforce discipline when emotions run high. Use the dashboard to develop a systematic approach to reading markets. Use confidence scores to size positions probabilistically.
The system provides an edge. Your job is to execute that edge with discipline, patience, and proper risk management over hundreds of trades.
Markets are probabilistic. No system wins every trade. But a systematic edge + disciplined execution + proper risk management compounds over time. That's the path to consistent profitability. BZ-CAE gives you the edge. The discipline and risk management are on you.
Taking you to school. — Dskyz, Trade with insight. Trade with anticipation.
Search in scripts for "信达股份40周年"
Risk & Position DashboardRisk & Position Dashboard
Overview
The Risk & Position Dashboard is a comprehensive trading tool designed to help traders calculate optimal position sizes, manage risk, and visualize potential profit/loss scenarios before entering trades. This indicator provides real-time calculations for position sizing based on account size, risk percentage, and stop-loss levels, while displaying multiple take-profit targets with customizable risk-reward ratios.
Key Features
Position Sizing & Risk Management:
Automatic position size calculation based on account size and risk percentage
Support for leveraged trading with maximum leverage limits
Fractional shares support for brokers that allow partial share trading
Real-time fee calculation including entry, stop-loss, and take-profit fees
Break-even price calculation including trading fees
Multi-Target Profit Management:
Support for up to 3 take-profit levels with individual portion allocations
Customizable risk-reward ratios for each take-profit target
Visual profit/loss zones displayed as colored boxes on the chart
Individual profit calculations for each take-profit level
Visual Dashboard:
Clean, customizable table display showing all key metrics
Configurable label positioning and styling options
Real-time tracking of whether stop-loss or take-profit levels have been reached
Color-coded visual zones for easy identification of risk and reward areas
Advanced Configuration:
Comprehensive input validation and error handling
Support for different chart timeframes and symbols
Customizable colors, fonts, and display options
Hide/show individual data fields for personalized dashboard views
How to Use
Set Account Parameters: Configure your account size, maximum risk percentage per trade, and trading fees in the "Account Settings" section.
Define Trade Setup: Use the "Entry" time picker to select your entry point on the chart, then input your entry price and stop-loss level.
Configure Take Profits: Set your desired risk-reward ratios and portion allocations for each take-profit level. The script supports 1-3 take-profit targets.
Analyze Results: The dashboard will automatically calculate and display position size, number of shares, potential profits/losses, fees, and break-even levels.
Visual Confirmation: Colored boxes on the chart show profit zones (green) and loss zones (red), with lines extending to current price levels.
Reset Entry and SL:
You can easily reset the entry and stop-loss by clicking the "Reset points..." button from the script's "More" menu.
This is useful if you want to quickly clear your current trade setup and start fresh without manually adjusting the points on the chart.
Calculations
The script performs sophisticated calculations including:
Position size based on risk amount and price difference between entry and stop-loss
Leverage requirements and position amount calculations
Fee-adjusted risk-reward ratios for realistic profit expectations
Break-even price including all trading costs
Individual profit calculations for partial position closures
Detailed Take-Profit Calculation Formula:
The take-profit prices are calculated using the following mathematical formula:
// Core variables:
// risk_amount = account_size * (risk_percentage / 100)
// total_risk_per_share = |entry_price - sl_price| + (entry_price * fee%) + (sl_price * fee%)
// shares = risk_amount / total_risk_per_share
// direction_factor = 1 for long positions, -1 for short positions
// Take-profit calculation:
net_win = total_risk_per_share * shares * RR_ratio
tp_price = (net_win + (direction_factor * entry_price * shares) + (entry_price * fee% * shares)) / (direction_factor * shares - fee% * shares)
Step-by-step example for a long position (based on screenshot):
Account Size: 2,000 USDT, Risk: 2% = 40 USDT
Entry: 102,062.9 USDT, Stop Loss: 102,178.4 USDT, Fee: 0.06%
Risk per share: |102,062.9 - 102,178.4| + (102,062.9 × 0.0006) + (102,178.4 × 0.0006) = 115.5 + 61.24 + 61.31 = 238.05 USDT
Shares: 40 ÷ 238.05 = 0.168 shares (rounded to 0.17 in display)
Position Size: 0.17 × 102,062.9 = 17,350.69 USDT
Position Amount (with 9x leverage): 17,350.69 ÷ 9 = 1,927.85 USDT
For 2:1 RR: Net win = 238.05 × 0.17 × 2 = 80.94 USDT
TP1 price = (80.94 + (1 × 102,062.9 × 0.17) + (102,062.9 × 0.0006 × 0.17)) ÷ (1 × 0.17 - 0.0006 × 0.17) = 101,464.7 USDT
For 3:1 RR: TP2 price = 101,226.7 USDT (following same formula with RR=3)
This ensures that after accounting for all fees, the actual risk-reward ratio matches the specified target ratio.
Risk Management Features
Maximum Trade Amount: Optional setting to limit position size regardless of account size
Leverage Limits: Built-in maximum leverage protection
Fee Integration: All calculations include realistic trading fees for accurate expectations
Validation: Automatic checking that take-profit portions sum to 100%
Historical Tracking: Visual indication when stop-loss or take-profit levels are reached (within last 5000 bars)
Understanding Max Trade Amount - Multiple Simultaneous Trades:
The "Max Trade Amount" feature is designed for traders who want to open multiple positions simultaneously while maintaining proper risk management. Here's how it works:
Key Concept:
- Risk percentage (2%) always applies to your full Account Size
- Max Trade Amount limits the capital allocated per individual trade
- This allows multiple trades with full risk on each trade
Example from Screenshot:
Account Size: 2,000 USDT
Max Trade Amount: 500 USDT
Risk per Trade: 2% × 2,000 = 40 USDT per trade
Stop Loss Distance: 0.11% from entry
Result: Position Size = 17,350.69 USDT with 35x leverage
Total Risk (including fees): 40.46 USDT
Multiple Trades Strategy:
With this setup, you can open:
Trade 1: 40 USDT risk, 495.73 USDT position amount (35x leverage)
Trade 2: 40 USDT risk, 495.73 USDT position amount (35x leverage)
Trade 3: 40 USDT risk, 495.73 USDT position amount (35x leverage)
Trade 4: 40 USDT risk, 495.73 USDT position amount (35x leverage)
Total Portfolio Exposure:
- 4 simultaneous trades = 4 × 495.73 = 1,982.92 USDT position amount
- Total risk exposure = 4 × 40 = 160 USDT (8% of account)
Trend & Strength Detector TSDTrend Strength Detector (TSD)
*Objective Trend Quality Measurement for Educational Market Analysis*
Note: This mathematical framework is a proprietary quantitative model developed by Ario Pinelab, inspired by classical EMA, ADX, RSI and MACD principles, yet not documented in any public technical or academic publication.
## 🎯 Purpose & Design Philosophy
The ** Trend Strength Detector- TSD ** is an educational research tool that provides **quantitative measurement of trend quality** through two independent scoring systems (0-100 scale). It answers the analytical question: *"How strong and aligned is the current market trend environment?"*
This indicator is designed with a **modular, complementary approach** to work alongside various analysis methodologies, particularly pattern-based recognition systems.
## 🔗 Complementary Research Framework
### Designed to Work With Pattern Detection Systems
This indicator provides **environmental context measurement** that complements qualitative pattern recognition tools. It works particularly well alongside systems like:
- **RMBS Smart Detector - Multi-Factor Momentum System**
- Traditional chart pattern analyzers
- Any momentum-based pattern identification tools
🔍 **To find RMBS Smart Detector:**
- Search in TradingView Indicators Library: `" RMBS Smart Detector - Multi-Factor Momentum System"`
- Look for: *Multi-Factor Momentum System*
- By author: ` `
### Why This Complementary Approach?
**Trend Quality Measurement** (TSD - this tool) provides:
- ✅ Structural trend alignment (0-100 score)
- ✅ Momentum intensity levels (0-100 score)
- ✅ Environment classification (Strong/Moderate/Weak)
- 📌 **Answers:** *"HOW STRONG is the underlying trend environment?"*
### Educational Research Value
When used together in a research context, these tools enable systematic study of questions like:
- How do reversal patterns behave when Strength Score is above 70 vs below 30?
- Do continuation patterns in weakening environments (declining scores) show different characteristics?
- What is the correlation between high Alignment Scores and pattern "success rates"?
- Can environment classification help identify genuine trend initiation vs false starts?
⚠️ **Important Note:** Both tools are **independent and work standalone**. TSD provides value whether used alone or with other analysis methods. The relationship with RMBS (or any pattern tool) is **complementary for research purposes**, not dependent.
---
###Mathematical Foundation
##TSA Formula: scoring method developed by Ario
-Trend Model (0 – 100)
TAS = EMA Alignment (0–40) + Price Position (0–30) + Trend Consistency (0–30)
EMA Alignment checks EMA_fast vs EMA_slow vs EMA_trend structure.
Price Position evaluates if Close is above/below all EMAs.
Consistency = 3 × max(bullish,bearish bars within 10 candles).
-Strength Model (0 – 100)
Strength = ADX (0–50) + EMA Slope (0–25) + RSI (0–15) + MACD (0–10)
ADX measures trend energy; Slope shows EMA momentum %;
RSI assesses zone positioning; MACD confirms directional agreement.
Note: This formula represents a proprietary quantitative model by Ario_Pinelab, inspired by classical technical concepts but not published in any external reference.________________________________________
📊 Environment Classification
Based on Total Strength Score:
🟢 Strong Environment: Score ≥ 60
→ Well-defined momentum, clear directional bias
🟡 Moderate Environment: 40 ≤ Score < 60
→ Mixed signals, transitional conditions
🔴 Weak Environment: Score < 40
→ Ranging, choppy, low conviction movement
Color Coding:
• Green background: Strong (≥60)
• Yellow background: Moderate (40-59)
• Red background: Weak (<40)
________________________________________
📈 Visual Components
Main Chart Display
Score Labels (Top-Right Corner):
┌─────────────────────────────────┐
│ 📊 Alignment: 75 | Strength: 82 │
│ Environment: Strong 🟢 │
└─────────────────────────────────┘
Color-Coded Background:
• Environment strength visually indicated via background color
• Helps quick identification of market regime
• Customizable transparency (default: 90%)
Reference Lines:
• Dotted line at 60: Strong/Moderate threshold
• Dotted line at 40: Moderate/Weak threshold
• Mid-line at 50: Neutral reference
________________________________________
🔧 Customization Settings
Input Parameters
The best setting is the default mode.
🚫 Important Disclaimers & Limitations
What This Indicator IS:
✅ Educational measurement tool for trend quality research
✅ Quantitative assessment of current market environment
✅ Complementary analysis tool for pattern-based systems
✅ Historical data analyzer for systematic study
✅ Multi-factor scoring system based on technical calculations
What This Indicator IS NOT:
❌ NOT a trading system or signal generator
❌ NOT financial advice or trade recommendations
❌ NOT predictive of future price movements
❌ NOT a guarantee of pattern success/failure
❌ NOT a substitute for comprehensive risk management
________________________________________
Known Limitations
1. Lagging Nature:
⚠️ All components (EMA, ADX, RSI, MACD) are calculated
from historical price data
→ Scores reflect CURRENT and RECENT conditions
→ Cannot predict sudden reversals or black swan events
→ Trend measurements lag actual price turning points
2. Whipsaw Risk:
⚠️ In choppy/ranging markets, scores may fluctuate rapidly
→ Moderate zone (40-60) can see frequent transitions
→ Low timeframes more susceptible to noise
→ Consider higher timeframes for stable measurements
3. Component Conflicts:
⚠️ Individual components may disagree
→ Example: Strong ADX but weak RSI alignment
→ Scores average these conflicts (may hide nuance)
→ Check individual components for deeper insight
4. Not Predictive:
⚠️ High scores do NOT guarantee continuation
⚠️ Low scores do NOT guarantee reversal
→ Measurement ≠ Prediction
→ Use for CONTEXT, not SIGNALS
→ Combine with comprehensive analysis
________________________________________
Risk Acknowledgments
Market Risk:
• All trading involves substantial risk of loss
• Past performance (even systematic studies) does not guarantee future results
• No indicator, system, or methodology can eliminate market risk
Measurement Limitations:
• Scores are mathematical calculations, not market predictions
• Environmental classification is descriptive, not prescriptive
• Strong measurements can deteriorate rapidly without warning
Educational Purpose:
• This tool is designed for LEARNING about market structure
• Not designed, tested, or validated as a standalone trading system
• Any trading decisions are user’s sole responsibility
No Warranty:
• Indicator provided “as-is” for educational purposes
• No guarantee of accuracy, reliability, or profitability
• Users must verify calculations and apply critical thinking
Open Source
Full Pine Script code available for educational study and modification. Feedback and improvement suggestions welcome.
“All logic is presented for research and educational visualization.”
---
Crypto Breadth Engine [alex975]
A normalized crypto market breadth indicator with a customizable 40 coin input panel — revealing whether rallies are broad and healthy across major coins and altcoins or led by only a few.
📊 Overview
The Crypto Breadth Engine measures the real participation strength of the crypto market by analyzing the direction of the 40 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.
⚙️ How It Works
Unlike standard breadth tools that only count assets above a moving average, this indicator measures actual price direction:
+1 if a coin closes higher, –1 if lower, 0 if unchanged.
The total forms a Breadth Line, statistically normalized using standard deviation to maintain consistent readings across timeframes and volatility conditions.
🧩 Dynamic Input Mask
All 40 cryptocurrencies are fully editable via the input panel, allowing users to easily replace or customize the basket (Top 40, Layer-1s, DeFi, Meme Coins, AI Tokens, etc.) without touching the code.
This flexibility keeps the indicator aligned with the evolving crypto market.
🧭 Trend Bias
The indicator classifies market structure as Bullish, Neutral, or Bearish, based on how the Breadth Line aligns with its moving averages (10, 20, 50).
💡 Dashboard
A compact on-chart table displays in real time:
• Positive and negative coins
• Participation percentage
• Current trend bias
🔍 Interpretation
• Rising breadth → broad, healthy market expansion
• Falling breadth → narrowing participation and structural weakness
Ideal for TOTAL, TOTAL3, or custom crypto baskets on 1D,1W.
Developed by alex975 – Version 1.0 (2025).
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
🇮🇹 Versione Italiana
📊 Panoramica
Il Crypto Breadth Engine misura la partecipazione reale del mercato crypto, analizzando la direzione delle 40 principali criptovalute per capitalizzazione.
Non si limita a contare quante coin sono sopra una media mobile, ma calcola la variazione effettiva del prezzo:
+1 se sale, –1 se scende, 0 se invariato.
La somma genera una Breadth Line normalizzata statisticamente, garantendo letture coerenti su diversi timeframe e fasi di volatilità.
🧩 Mascherina dinamica
L’indicatore include una mascherina d’input interattiva che consente di modificare o sostituire liberamente i 40 ticker analizzati (Top 40, Layer-1, DeFi, Meme Coin, ecc.) senza intervenire nel codice.
Questo lo rende sempre aggiornato e adattabile all’evoluzione del mercato crypto.
⚙️ Funzionamento e Trend Bias
Classifica automaticamente il mercato come Bullish, Neutral o Bearish in base alla relazione tra la breadth e le medie mobili (10, 20, 50 periodi).
💡 Dashboard
Una tabella compatta mostra in tempo reale:
• Numero di coin positive e negative
• Percentuale di partecipazione
• Stato attuale del trend
🔍 Interpretazione
• Breadth in crescita → mercato ampio e trend sano
• Breadth in calo → partecipazione ridotta e concentrazione su pochi asset
Ideale per analizzare TOTAL, TOTAL3 o panieri personalizzati di crypto.
Funziona su timeframe 1D, 4H, 1W.
Sviluppato da alex975 – Versione 1.0 (2025).
Constance Brown RSI with Composite IndexConstance Brown RSI with Composite Index
Overview
This indicator combines Constance Brown's RSI interpretation methodology with a Composite Index and ATR Distance to VWAP measurement to provide a comprehensive trading tool. It helps identify trends, momentum shifts, overbought/oversold conditions, and potential reversal points.
Key Features
Color-coded RSI zones for immediate trend identification
Composite Index for momentum analysis and divergence detection
ATR Distance to VWAP for identifying extreme price deviations
Automatic divergence detection for early reversal warnings
Pre-configured alerts for key trading signals
How to Use This Indicator
Trend Identification
The RSI line changes color based on its position:
Blue zone (RSI > 50): Bullish trend - look for buying opportunities
Purple zone (RSI < 50): Bearish trend - look for selling opportunities
Gray zone (RSI 40-60): Neutral/transitional market - prepare for potential breakout
The 40-50 area (light blue fill) acts as support during uptrends, while the 50-60 area (light purple fill) acts as resistance during downtrends.
// From the code:
upTrendZone = rsiValue > 50 and rsiValue <= 90
downTrendZone = rsiValue < 50 and rsiValue >= 10
neutralZone = rsiValue > 40 and rsiValue < 60
rsiColor = neutralZone ? neutralRSI : upTrendZone ? upTrendRSI : downTrendRSI
Momentum Analysis
The Composite Index (fuchsia line) provides momentum confirmation:
Values above 50 indicate positive momentum
Values below 40 indicate negative momentum
Crossing above/below these thresholds signals potential momentum shifts
// From the code:
compositeIndexRaw = rsiChange / ta.stdev(rsiValue, rsiLength)
compositeIndex = ta.sma(compositeIndexRaw, compositeSmoothing)
compositeScaled = compositeIndex * 10 + 50 // Scaled to fit 0-100 range
Overbought/Oversold Detection
The ATR Distance to VWAP table in the top-right corner shows how far price has moved from VWAP in terms of ATR units:
Extreme positive values (orange/red): Potentially overbought
Extreme negative values (purple/red): Potentially oversold
Near zero (gray): Price near average value
// From the code:
priceDistance = (close - vwapValue) / ta.atr(atrPeriod)
// Color coding based on distance value
Divergence Trading
The indicator automatically detects divergences between the Composite Index and price:
Bullish divergence: Price makes lower low but Composite Index makes higher low
Bearish divergence: Price makes higher high but Composite Index makes lower high
// From the code:
divergenceBullish = ta.lowest(compositeIndex, rsiLength) > ta.lowest(close, rsiLength)
divergenceBearish = ta.highest(compositeIndex, rsiLength) < ta.highest(close, rsiLength)
Trading Strategies
Trend Following
1. Identify the trend using RSI color:
Blue = Uptrend, Purple = Downtrend
2. Wait for pullbacks to support/resistance zones:
In uptrends: Buy when RSI pulls back to 40-50 zone and bounces
In downtrends: Sell when RSI rallies to 50-60 zone and rejects
3. Confirm with Composite Index:
Uptrends: Composite Index stays above 50 or quickly returns above it
Downtrends: Composite Index stays below 50 or quickly returns below it
4. Manage risk using ATR Distance:
Take profits when ATR Distance reaches extreme values
Place stops beyond recent swing points
Reversal Trading
1. Look for divergences
Bullish: Price makes lower low but Composite Index makes higher low
Bearish: Price makes higher high but Composite Index makes lower high
2. Confirm with ATR Distance:
Extreme readings suggest potential reversals
3. Wait for RSI zone transition:
Bullish: RSI crosses above 40 (purple to neutral/blue)
Bearish: RSI crosses below 60 (blue to neutral/purple)
4. Enter after confirmation:
Use candlestick patterns for precise entry
Place stops beyond the divergence point
Four pre-configured alerts are available:
Momentum High: Composite Index above 50
Momentum Low: Composite Index below 40
Bullish Divergence: Composite Index higher low
Bearish Divergence: Composite Index lower high
Customization
Adjust these parameters to optimize for your trading style:
RSI Length: Default 14, lower for more sensitivity, higher for fewer signals
Composite Index Smoothing: Default 10, lower for quicker signals, higher for less noise
ATR Period: Default 14, affects the ATR Distance to VWAP calculation
This indicator works well across various markets and timeframes, though the default settings are optimized for daily charts. Adjust parameters for shorter or longer timeframes as needed.
Happy trading!
Regime Filter IndicatorRegime Filter – Crypto Market Trend Indicator
📊 Overview
The Regime Filter is a powerful market analysis indicator designed specifically for crypto trading. It helps traders identify whether the market is in a bullish or bearish phase by analyzing key assets in the cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin (BTC), Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D), and the Altcoin Market (TOTAL3). The indicator compares these assets against their respective Simple Moving Averages (SMA) to determine the overall market regime, allowing traders to make more informed decisions.
🔍 How It Works
The Regime Filter evaluates three main components to determine the market's sentiment:
1. BTC Dominance (BTC.D) vs. 40 SMA (Medium Timeframe)
The Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) is compared to its 40-period SMA on a mid-timeframe (e.g.,
1-hour). If BTC.D is below the 40 SMA, it indicates that altcoins are performing well relative
to Bitcoin, suggesting a bullish altcoin market. If BTC.D is above the 40 SMA, Bitcoin is
gaining dominance, indicating a potential bearish phase for altcoins.
2. TOTAL3 Market Cap vs. 100 SMA (Medium Timeframe)
The TOTAL3 index, which tracks the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies except
Bitcoin and Ethereum, is compared to its 100-period SMA. A bullish signal occurs when TOTAL3
is above the 100 SMA, indicating strength in altcoins, while a bearish signal occurs when
TOTAL3 is below the 100 SMA, signaling a potential weakness in the altcoin market.
3. BTC Price vs. 200 SMA (Higher Timeframe)
The current Bitcoin price is compared to its 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on a
higher timeframe (e.g., 4-hour). A bullish signal is given when the BTC price is above the 200
SMA, and a bearish signal when it's below.
🟢 Bullish Market Conditions
The market is considered bullish when:
- BTC Dominance (BTC.D) is below the 40 SMA, suggesting altcoins are gaining momentum.
- TOTAL3 Market Cap is above the 100 SMA, signaling strength in the altcoin market.
- BTC price is above the 200 SMA, indicating an uptrend in Bitcoin.
In these conditions, the background turns green 🟢, and a "Bullish" label is displayed on the chart.
🔴 Bearish Market Conditions
The market is considered bearish when:
- BTC Dominance (BTC.D) is above the 40 SMA, indicating Bitcoin is outperforming altcoins.
- TOTAL3 Market Cap is below the 100 SMA, signaling weakness in altcoins.
- BTC price is below the 200 SMA, indicating a downtrend in Bitcoin.
In these conditions, the background turns red 🔴, and a "Bearish" label appears on the chart.
⚙ Customization Options
- The Regime Filter offers flexibility for traders:
- Enable or Disable Specific SMAs: Customize the indicator by enabling or disabling the 200 SMA for Bitcoin, the 40 SMA for BTC Dominance, and the 100 SMA for TOTAL3.
- Adjust Timeframes: Choose the timeframes for each of the moving averages to suit your preferred trading strategy.
- Real-Time Data Adjustments: The indicator updates in real-time to reflect current market conditions, ensuring timely analysis.
📈 Best Use Cases
- Trend Confirmation: The Regime Filter is ideal for confirming the market's overall trend,
helping traders to align their positions with the dominant market sentiment.
- Trade Entry/Exit Signals: Use the indicator to identify favorable entry or exit points based on
whether the market is in a bullish or bearish phase.
- Market Overview: Gain a quick understanding of the broader crypto market, with a focus on
Bitcoin and altcoins, to make more strategic decisions.
⚠️ Important Notes
Trend-Following Indicator: The Regime Filter is a trend-following tool, meaning it works best in strong trending markets. It may not perform well in choppy, sideways markets.
Risk Management: This indicator is designed to assist in identifying market trends, but it does not guarantee profits. Always apply sound risk management strategies and use additional indicators when making trading decisions.
Not a Profit Guarantee: While this indicator can help identify potential market trends, no trading tool or strategy guarantees profits. Please trade responsibly and ensure that your decisions are based on comprehensive analysis and risk tolerance.
IPO Lifecycle Sell Strategy [JARUTIR]IPO Lifecycle Sell Strategy with Dynamic Buy Date and Multiple Sell Rules
This custom TradingView script is designed for traders looking to capitalize on dynamic strategies for IPOs and growth stocks, by implementing several sell rules based on price action and technical indicators. It provides a set of sell rules that are applied dynamically depending on the stock's lifecycle and price action, allowing users to lock in profits and minimize drawdowns based on key technical thresholds.
The four sell strategies incorporated into this script are inspired by the book "The Lifecycle Trade", a resource that focuses on capturing profits while managing risk in different phases of a stock's lifecycle, from IPO to high-growth stages.
Key Features:
Buy Price and Buy Date: You can either manually input your buy price and date or let the script automatically detect the buy date based on the specified buy price.
Multiple Sell Strategies: Choose from 4 predefined sell strategies:
Ascender Rule : Captures strong momentum from IPO stocks by selling portions at specific price levels or technical conditions.
Midterm Rule : Focuses on holding for longer periods, with defensive sell signals triggered when the stock deviates significantly from peak price or key moving averages.
40 Week Rule : Designed for long-term holds, this rule triggers a sell when the stock closes below the 40-week moving average.
Everest Rule : Aggressive strategy for selling into strength based on parabolic moves or gap downs, ideal for high momentum stocks.
Interactive Features:
Horizontal Green Line showing the buy price level from the buy date.
Visual Sell Signals appear only after the buy date to ensure that your analysis is relevant to the stock lifecycle.
Customizable settings, allowing you to choose your preferred sell rule strategy and automate buy date detection.
This script is perfect for traders using a strategic, systematic approach to IPOs and high-growth stocks, whether you're looking for quick exits during momentum phases or holding for longer-term growth.
Usage:
Input your Buy Price and Buy Date, or allow the script to automate the buy date detection.
Select a Sell Rule strategy based on your risk profile and trading style.
View visual signals for selling when specific conditions are met.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs):
Q1: How do I input my Buy Price and Buy Date?
The script allows you to either manually input the Buy Price and Buy Date or use the automated detection. If you choose automated detection, the script will automatically assign the buy date when the price crosses above your set Buy Price.
Q2: What is the purpose of the "Sell Rules"?
The script offers four sell strategies to help manage different types of stocks in varying phases of their lifecycle:
Ascender Rule: Targets IPO stocks showing positive momentum.
Midterm Rule: A defensive strategy for stocks in a steady uptrend.
40 Week Rule: Long-term hold strategy designed to ride stocks through extended growth.
Everest Rule: Aggressive strategy to capture profits during parabolic price moves.
Q3: What is the significance of the Green Line at Buy Price?
The Green Line represents your entry point (Buy Price) on the chart. It will appear from the buy date onwards, helping you track the performance of your stock relative to your entry.
Q4: Can I customize the Sell Strategy?
Yes! You can choose from the available Sell Rules (Ascender Rule, Midterm Rule, 40 Week Rule, Everest Rule) via an input option in the script. Each strategy has its own unique triggers based on price action, moving averages, and time-based conditions.
Q5: Does this script work for stocks and crypto?
Yes, this script is designed for both stocks and cryptocurrencies. It works on any asset where price data and timeframes are available.
Q6: How do the Weekly Moving Averages (WSMA) work in this strategy?
The script uses weekly moving averages (WSMA) to track longer-term trends. These are essential for some of the sell rules, such as the Midterm Rule and 40 Week Rule, which rely on the stock's movement relative to the 40-week moving average.
Q7: Will the script plot a Sell Signal immediately after the Buy Date?
No, sell signals will only be plotted after the Buy Date. This ensures that the sell strategy is relevant to your actual holding period and avoids premature triggers.
Q8: How do I interpret the Sell Signal?
The script will plot a Red Sell Signal above the bar when the sell conditions are met, based on the selected strategy. This indicates that it may be a good time to exit the position according to your chosen rule.
Q9: Can I use this strategy on different timeframes?
Yes, you can apply the script to any timeframe. However, some sell strategies, like the Midterm Rule and 40 Week Rule, are designed to work best with weekly data, so it's recommended to use these strategies with longer timeframes.
Q10: Does this script have any alerts?
Yes! The script supports alert conditions that will notify you when the sell conditions are met according to your selected rule. You can set up alerts to stay informed without needing to watch the chart constantly.
Q11: What if I want to disable some of the sell rules?
You can select your preferred sell rule using the "Select Sell Rule" dropdown. If you don’t want to use a particular rule, simply choose a different strategy or leave it inactive.
------------------------------
Disclaimer:
This strategy is intended for educational purposes only. It should not be considered financial advice. Always perform your own research and consult with a professional before making any trading decisions. Trading involves significant risk, and you should never trade with money you cannot afford to lose.
COMET_Scanner_Library_FINALLibrary "COMET_Scanner_Library"
- A Trader's Edge (ATE)_Library was created to assist in constructing COM Scanners
TickerIDs(_string)
TickerIDs: You must form this single tickerID input string exactly as described in the scripts info panel (little gray 'i' that
is circled at the end of the settings in the settings/input panel that you can hover your cursor over this 'i' to read the
details of that particular input). IF the string is formed correctly then it will break up this single string parameter into
a total of 40 separate strings which will be all of the tickerIDs that the script is using in your COM Scanner.
Parameters:
_string (simple string) : (string)
A maximum of 40 Tickers (ALL joined as 1 string for the input parameter) that is formulated EXACTLY as described
within the tooltips of the TickerID inputs in my COM Scanner scripts:
assets = input.text_area(tIDs, title="TickerIDs (MUST READ TOOLTIP)", group=g2, tooltip="Accepts 40 TICKERID's
for each copy of the script on the chart. \n\n*** MUST FORMAT THIS WAY ***\n\n Each FULL tickerID
(ie 'Exchange:ticker') must be separated by A SINGLE BLANK SPACE for correct formatting. The blank space tells
the script where to break off the ticker to assign it to a variable to be used later in the script. So this input
will be a single string constructed from up to 40 tickerID's with a space between each tickerID
(ie. 'BINANCE:BTCUSDT BINANCE:SXPUSDT BINANCE:XRPUSDT').", display=display.none)
Returns: Returns 40 output variables in the tuple (ie. between the ' ') with the separated TickerIDs,
Locations(_firstLocation)
Locations: This function is used when there's a desire to print an assets ALERT LABELS. A set Location on the scale is assigned to each asset.
This is created so that if a lot of alerts are triggered, they will stay relatively visible and not overlap each other.
If you set your '_firstLocation' parameter as 1, since there are a max of 40 assets that can be scanned, the 1st asset's location
is assigned the value in the '_firstLocation' parameter, the 2nd asset's location is the (1st asset's location+1)...and so on.
Parameters:
_firstLocation (simple int) : (simple int)
Optional (starts at 1 if no parameter added).
Location that you want the first asset to print its label if is triggered to do so.
ie. loc2=loc1+1, loc3=loc2+1, etc.
Returns: Returns 40 variables for the locations for alert labels
LabelSize(_barCnt, _lblSzRfrnce)
INVALID TICKERIDs: This is to add a table in the middle right of your chart that prints all the TickerID's that were either not formulated
correctly in the '_source' input or that is not a valid symbol and should be changed.
LABEL SIZES: This function sizes your Alert Trigger Labels according to the amount of Printed Bars the chart has printed within
a set time period, while also keeping in mind the smallest relative reference size you input in the 'lblSzRfrnceInput'
parameter of this function. A HIGHER % of Printed Bars(aka...more trades occurring for that asset on the exchange),
the LARGER the Name Label will print, potentially showing you the better opportunities on the exchange to avoid
exchange manipulation liquidations.
*** SHOULD NOT be used as size of labels that are your asset Name Labels next to each asset's Line Plot...
if your COM Scanner includes these as you want these to be the same size for every asset so the larger ones dont cover the
smaller ones if the plots are all close to each other ***
Parameters:
_barCnt (float) : (float)
Get the 1st variable('barCnt') from the Security function's tuple and input it as this functions 1st input
parameter which will directly affect the size of the 2nd output variable ('alertTrigLabel') that is also outputted by this function.
_lblSzRfrnce (string) : (string)
Optional (if parameter not included, it defaults to size.small). This will be the size of the variable outputted
by this function named 'assetNameLabel' BUT also affects the size of the output variable 'alertTrigLabel' as it uses this parameter's size
as the smallest size for 'alertTrigLabel' then uses the '_barCnt' parameter to determine the next sizes up depending on the "_barCnt" value.
Returns: ( )
Returns 2 variables:
1st output variable ('AssetNameLabel') is assigned to the size of the 'lblSzRfrnceInput' parameter.
2nd output variable('alertTrigLabel') can be of variying sizes depending on the 'barCnt' parameter...BUT the smallest
size possible for the 2nd output variable ('alertTrigLabel') will be the size set in the 'lblSzRfrnceInput' parameter.
InvalidTickerIDs(_close, _securityTickerid, _invalidArray, _tablePosition, _stackVertical)
Parameters:
_close (float)
_securityTickerid (string)
_invalidArray (array)
_tablePosition (simple string)
_stackVertical (simple bool)
PrintedBarCount(_time, _barCntLength, _barCntPercentMin)
The Printed BarCount Filter looks back a User Defined amount of minutes and calculates the % of bars that have printed
out of the TOTAL amount of bars that COULD HAVE been printed within the same amount of time.
Parameters:
_time (int) : (int)
The time associated with the chart of the particular asset that is being screened at that point.
_barCntLength (int) : (int)
The amount of time (IN MINUTES) that you want the logic to look back at to calculate the % of bars that have actually
printed in the span of time you input into this parameter.
_barCntPercentMin (int) : (int)
The minimum % of Printed Bars of the asset being screened has to be GREATER than the value set in this parameter
for the output variable 'bc_gtg' to be true.
Returns: ( )
Returns 2 outputs:
1st is the % of Printed Bars that have printed within the within the span of time you input in the '_barCntLength' parameter.
2nd is true/false according to if the Printed BarCount % is above the threshold that you input into the '_barCntPercentMin' parameter.
COM_Scanner_LibraryLibrary "COM_Scanner_Library"
- A Trader's Edge (ATE)_Library was created to assist in constructing COM Scanners
TickerIDs(_string)
TickerIDs: You must form this single tickerID input string exactly as described in the scripts info panel (little gray 'i' that
is circled at the end of the settings in the settings/input panel that you can hover your cursor over this 'i' to read the
details of that particular input). IF the string is formed correctly then it will break up this single string parameter into
a total of 40 separate strings which will be all of the tickerIDs that the script is using in your COM Scanner.
Parameters:
_string (simple string) : (string)
A maximum of 40 Tickers (ALL joined as 1 string for the input parameter) that is formulated EXACTLY as described
within the tooltips of the TickerID inputs in my COM Scanner scripts:
assets = input.text_area(tIDs, title="TickerIDs (MUST READ TOOLTIP)", group=g2, tooltip="Accepts 40 TICKERID's
for each copy of the script on the chart. \n\n*** MUST FORMAT THIS WAY ***\n\n Each FULL tickerID
(ie 'Exchange:ticker') must be separated by A SINGLE BLANK SPACE for correct formatting. The blank space tells
the script where to break off the ticker to assign it to a variable to be used later in the script. So this input
will be a single string constructed from up to 40 tickerID's with a space between each tickerID
(ie. 'BINANCE:BTCUSDT BINANCE:SXPUSDT BINANCE:XRPUSDT').", display=display.none)
Returns: Returns 40 output variables in the tuple (ie. between the ' ') with the separated TickerIDs,
Locations(_firstLocation)
Locations: This function is used when there's a desire to print an assets ALERT LABELS. A set Location on the scale is assigned to each asset.
This is created so that if a lot of alerts are triggered, they will stay relatively visible and not overlap each other.
If you set your '_firstLocation' parameter as 1, since there are a max of 40 assets that can be scanned, the 1st asset's location
is assigned the value in the '_firstLocation' parameter, the 2nd asset's location is the (1st asset's location+1)...and so on.
Parameters:
_firstLocation (simple int) : (simple int)
Optional (starts at 1 if no parameter added).
Location that you want the first asset to print its label if is triggered to do so.
ie. loc2=loc1+1, loc3=loc2+1, etc.
Returns: Returns 40 variables for the locations for alert labels
LabelSize(_barCnt, _lblSzRfrnce)
INVALID TICKERIDs: This is to add a table in the middle right of your chart that prints all the TickerID's that were either not formulated
correctly in the '_source' input or that is not a valid symbol and should be changed.
LABEL SIZES: This function sizes your Alert Trigger Labels according to the amount of Printed Bars the chart has printed within
a set time period, while also keeping in mind the smallest relative reference size you input in the 'lblSzRfrnceInput'
parameter of this function. A HIGHER % of Printed Bars(aka...more trades occurring for that asset on the exchange),
the LARGER the Name Label will print, potentially showing you the better opportunities on the exchange to avoid
exchange manipulation liquidations.
*** SHOULD NOT be used as size of labels that are your asset Name Labels next to each asset's Line Plot...
if your COM Scanner includes these as you want these to be the same size for every asset so the larger ones dont cover the
smaller ones if the plots are all close to each other ***
Parameters:
_barCnt (float) : (float)
Get the 1st variable('barCnt') from the Security function's tuple and input it as this functions 1st input
parameter which will directly affect the size of the 2nd output variable ('alertTrigLabel') that is also outputted by this function.
_lblSzRfrnce (string) : (string)
Optional (if parameter not included, it defaults to size.small). This will be the size of the variable outputted
by this function named 'assetNameLabel' BUT also affects the size of the output variable 'alertTrigLabel' as it uses this parameter's size
as the smallest size for 'alertTrigLabel' then uses the '_barCnt' parameter to determine the next sizes up depending on the "_barCnt" value.
Returns: ( )
Returns 2 variables:
1st output variable ('AssetNameLabel') is assigned to the size of the 'lblSzRfrnceInput' parameter.
2nd output variable('alertTrigLabel') can be of variying sizes depending on the 'barCnt' parameter...BUT the smallest
size possible for the 2nd output variable ('alertTrigLabel') will be the size set in the 'lblSzRfrnceInput' parameter.
InvalidTickerIDs(_close, _securityTickerid, _invalidArray, _tablePosition, _stackVertical)
Parameters:
_close (float)
_securityTickerid (string)
_invalidArray (array)
_tablePosition (simple string)
_stackVertical (simple bool)
PrintedBarCount(_time, _barCntLength, _barCntPercentMin)
The Printed BarCount Filter looks back a User Defined amount of minutes and calculates the % of bars that have printed
out of the TOTAL amount of bars that COULD HAVE been printed within the same amount of time.
Parameters:
_time (int) : (int)
The time associated with the chart of the particular asset that is being screened at that point.
_barCntLength (int) : (int)
The amount of time (IN MINUTES) that you want the logic to look back at to calculate the % of bars that have actually
printed in the span of time you input into this parameter.
_barCntPercentMin (int) : (int)
The minimum % of Printed Bars of the asset being screened has to be GREATER than the value set in this parameter
for the output variable 'bc_gtg' to be true.
Returns: ( )
Returns 2 outputs:
1st is the % of Printed Bars that have printed within the within the span of time you input in the '_barCntLength' parameter.
2nd is true/false according to if the Printed BarCount % is above the threshold that you input into the '_barCntPercentMin' parameter.
CCOMET_Scanner_LibraryLibrary "CCOMET_Scanner_Library"
- A Trader's Edge (ATE)_Library was created to assist in constructing CCOMET Scanners
Loc_tIDs_Col(_string, _firstLocation)
TickerIDs: You must form this single tickerID input string exactly as described in the scripts info panel (little gray 'i' that
is circled at the end of the settings in the settings/input panel that you can hover your cursor over this 'i' to read the
details of that particular input). IF the string is formed correctly then it will break up this single string parameter into
a total of 40 separate strings which will be all of the tickerIDs that the script is using in your CCOMET Scanner.
Locations: This function is used when there's a desire to print an assets ALERT LABELS. A set Location on the scale is assigned to each asset.
This is created so that if a lot of alerts are triggered, they will stay relatively visible and not overlap each other.
If you set your '_firstLocation' parameter as 1, since there are a max of 40 assets that can be scanned, the 1st asset's location
is assigned the value in the '_firstLocation' parameter, the 2nd asset's location is the (1st asset's location+1)...and so on.
Parameters:
_string (simple string) : (string)
A maximum of 40 Tickers (ALL joined as 1 string for the input parameter) that is formulated EXACTLY as described
within the tooltips of the TickerID inputs in my CCOMET Scanner scripts:
assets = input.text_area(tIDset1, title="TickerID (MUST READ TOOLTIP)", tooltip="Accepts 40 TICKERID's for each
copy of the script on the chart. TEXT FORMATTING RULES FOR TICKERID'S:
(1) To exclude the EXCHANGE NAME in the Labels, de-select the next input option.
(2) MUST have a space (' ') AFTER each TickerID.
(3) Capitalization in the Labels will match cap of these TickerID's.
(4) If your asset has a BaseCurrency & QuoteCurrency (ie. ADAUSDT ) BUT you ONLY want Labels
to show BaseCurrency(ie.'ADA'), include a FORWARD SLASH ('/') between the Base & Quote (ie.'ADA/USDT')", display=display.none)
_firstLocation (simple int) : (simple int)
Optional (starts at 1 if no parameter added).
Location that you want the first asset to print its label if is triggered to do so.
ie. loc2=loc1+1, loc3=loc2+1, etc.
Returns: Returns 40 output variables in the tuple (ie. between the ' ') with the TickerIDs, 40 variables for the locations for alert labels, and 40 Colors for labels/plots
TickeridForLabelsAndSecurity(_ticker, _includeExchange)
This function accepts the TickerID Name as its parameter and produces a single string that will be used in all of your labels.
Parameters:
_ticker (simple string) : (string)
For this parameter, input the varible named '_coin' from your 'f_main()' function for this parameter. It is the raw
Ticker ID name that will be processed.
_includeExchange (simple bool) : (bool)
Optional (if parameter not included in function it defaults to false ).
Used to determine if the Exchange name will be included in all labels/triggers/alerts.
Returns: ( )
Returns 2 output variables:
1st ('_securityTickerid') is to be used in the 'request.security()' function as this string will contain everything
TV needs to pull the correct assets data.
2nd ('lblTicker') is to be used in all of the labels in your CCOMET Scanner as it will only contain what you want your labels
to show as determined by how the tickerID is formulated in the CCOMET Scanner's input.
InvalID_LblSz(_barCnt, _close, _securityTickerid, _invalidArray, _tablePosition, _stackVertical, _lblSzRfrnce)
INVALID TICKERIDs: This is to add a table in the middle right of your chart that prints all the TickerID's that were either not formulated
correctly in the '_source' input or that is not a valid symbol and should be changed.
LABEL SIZES: This function sizes your Alert Trigger Labels according to the amount of Printed Bars the chart has printed within
a set time period, while also keeping in mind the smallest relative reference size you input in the 'lblSzRfrnceInput'
parameter of this function. A HIGHER % of Printed Bars(aka...more trades occurring for that asset on the exchange),
the LARGER the Name Label will print, potentially showing you the better opportunities on the exchange to avoid
exchange manipulation liquidations.
*** SHOULD NOT be used as size of labels that are your asset Name Labels next to each asset's Line Plot...
if your CCOMET Scanner includes these as you want these to be the same size for every asset so the larger ones dont cover the
smaller ones if the plots are all close to each other ***
Parameters:
_barCnt (float) : (float)
Get the 1st variable('barCnt') from the Security function's tuple and input it as this functions 1st input
parameter which will directly affect the size of the 2nd output variable ('alertTrigLabel') that is also outputted by this function.
_close (float) : (float)
Put your 'close' variable named '_close' from the security function here.
_securityTickerid (string) : (string)
Throughout the entire charts updates, if a '_close' value is never registered then the logic counts the asset as INVALID.
This will be the 1st TickerID variable (named _securityTickerid) outputted from the tuple of the TickeridForLabels()
function above this one.
_invalidArray (array) : (array string)
Input the array from the original script that houses all of the invalidArray strings.
_tablePosition (simple string) : (string)
Optional (if parameter not included, it defaults to position.middle_right). Location on the chart you want the table printed.
Possible strings include: position.top_center, position.top_left, position.top_right, position.middle_center,
position.middle_left, position.middle_right, position.bottom_center, position.bottom_left, position.bottom_right.
_stackVertical (simple bool) : (bool)
Optional (if parameter not included, it defaults to true). All of the assets that are counted as INVALID will be
created in a list. If you want this list to be prited as a column then input 'true' here, otherwise they will all be in a row.
_lblSzRfrnce (string) : (string)
Optional (if parameter not included, it defaults to size.small). This will be the size of the variable outputted
by this function named 'assetNameLabel' BUT also affects the size of the output variable 'alertTrigLabel' as it uses this parameter's size
as the smallest size for 'alertTrigLabel' then uses the '_barCnt' parameter to determine the next sizes up depending on the "_barCnt" value.
Returns: ( )
Returns 2 variables:
1st output variable ('AssetNameLabel') is assigned to the size of the 'lblSzRfrnceInput' parameter.
2nd output variable('alertTrigLabel') can be of variying sizes depending on the 'barCnt' parameter...BUT the smallest
size possible for the 2nd output variable ('alertTrigLabel') will be the size set in the 'lblSzRfrnceInput' parameter.
PrintedBarCount(_time, _barCntLength, _barCntPercentMin)
The Printed BarCount Filter looks back a User Defined amount of minutes and calculates the % of bars that have printed
out of the TOTAL amount of bars that COULD HAVE been printed within the same amount of time.
Parameters:
_time (int) : (int)
The time associated with the chart of the particular asset that is being screened at that point.
_barCntLength (int) : (int)
The amount of time (IN MINUTES) that you want the logic to look back at to calculate the % of bars that have actually
printed in the span of time you input into this parameter.
_barCntPercentMin (int) : (int)
The minimum % of Printed Bars of the asset being screened has to be GREATER than the value set in this parameter
for the output variable 'bc_gtg' to be true.
Returns: ( )
Returns 2 outputs:
1st is the % of Printed Bars that have printed within the within the span of time you input in the '_barCntLength' parameter.
2nd is true/false according to if the Printed BarCount % is above the threshold that you input into the '_barCntPercentMin' parameter.
Market Regime# MARKET REGIME IDENTIFICATION & TRADING SYSTEM
## Complete User Guide
---
## 📋 TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. (#overview)
2. (#regimes)
3. (#indicator-usage)
4. (#entry-signals)
5. (#exit-signals)
6. (#regime-strategies)
7. (#confluence)
8. (#backtesting)
9. (#optimization)
10. (#examples)
---
## OVERVIEW
### What This System Does
This is a **complete market regime identification and trading system** that:
1. **Identifies 6 distinct market regimes** automatically
2. **Adapts trading tactics** to each regime
3. **Provides high-probability entry signals** with confluence scoring
4. **Shows optimal exit points** for each trade
5. **Can be backtested** to validate performance
### Two Components Provided
1. **Indicator** (`market_regime_indicator.pine`)
- Visual regime identification
- Entry/exit signals on chart
- Dynamic support/resistance
- Info tables with live data
- Use for manual trading
2. **Strategy** (`market_regime_strategy.pine`)
- Fully automated backtestable version
- Same logic as indicator
- Position sizing and risk management
- Performance metrics
- Use for backtesting and automation
---
## THE 6 MARKET REGIMES
### 1. 🟢 BULL TRENDING
**Characteristics:**
- Strong uptrend
- Price above SMA50 and SMA200
- ADX > 25 (strong trend)
- Higher highs and higher lows
- DI+ > DI- (bullish momentum)
**What It Means:**
- Market has clear upward direction
- Buyers in control
- Pullbacks are buying opportunities
- Strongest regime for long positions
**How to Trade:**
- ✅ **BUY dips to EMA20 or SMA20**
- ✅ Enter when RSI < 60 on pullback
- ✅ Hold through minor corrections
- ❌ Don't short against the trend
- ❌ Don't sell too early
**Expected Behavior:**
- Pullbacks are shallow (5-10%)
- Bounces are strong
- Support at moving averages holds
- Volume increases on rallies
---
### 2. 🔴 BEAR TRENDING
**Characteristics:**
- Strong downtrend
- Price below SMA50 and SMA200
- ADX > 25 (strong trend)
- Lower highs and lower lows
- DI- > DI+ (bearish momentum)
**What It Means:**
- Market has clear downward direction
- Sellers in control
- Rallies are selling opportunities
- Strongest regime for short positions
**How to Trade:**
- ✅ **SELL rallies to EMA20 or SMA20**
- ✅ Enter when RSI > 40 on bounce
- ✅ Hold through minor bounces
- ❌ Don't buy against the trend
- ❌ Don't cover shorts too early
**Expected Behavior:**
- Rallies are weak (5-10%)
- Selloffs are strong
- Resistance at moving averages holds
- Volume increases on declines
---
### 3. 🔵 BULL RANGING
**Characteristics:**
- Bullish bias but consolidating
- Price near or above SMA50
- ADX < 20 (weak trend)
- Trading in range
- Choppy price action
**What It Means:**
- Uptrend is pausing
- Accumulation phase
- Support and resistance zones clear
- Lower volatility
**How to Trade:**
- ✅ **BUY at support zone**
- ✅ Enter when RSI < 40
- ✅ Take profits at resistance
- ⚠️ Smaller position sizes
- ⚠️ Tighter stops
**Expected Behavior:**
- Range-bound oscillations
- Support bounces repeatedly
- Resistance rejections common
- Eventually breaks higher (usually)
---
### 4. 🟠 BEAR RANGING
**Characteristics:**
- Bearish bias but consolidating
- Price near or below SMA50
- ADX < 20 (weak trend)
- Trading in range
- Choppy price action
**What It Means:**
- Downtrend is pausing
- Distribution phase
- Support and resistance zones clear
- Lower volatility
**How to Trade:**
- ✅ **SELL at resistance zone**
- ✅ Enter when RSI > 60
- ✅ Take profits at support
- ⚠️ Smaller position sizes
- ⚠️ Tighter stops
**Expected Behavior:**
- Range-bound oscillations
- Resistance holds repeatedly
- Support bounces are weak
- Eventually breaks lower (usually)
---
### 5. ⚪ CONSOLIDATION
**Characteristics:**
- No clear direction
- Range compression
- Very low ADX (< 15 often)
- Price inside tight range
- Neutral sentiment
**What It Means:**
- Market is coiling
- Building energy for next move
- Indecision between buyers/sellers
- Calm before the storm
**How to Trade:**
- ✅ **WAIT for breakout direction**
- ✅ Enter on high-volume breakout
- ✅ Direction becomes clear
- ❌ Don't trade inside the range
- ❌ Avoid choppy scalping
**Expected Behavior:**
- Narrow range
- Low volume
- False breakouts possible
- Explosive move when it breaks
---
### 6. 🟣 CHAOS (High Volatility)
**Characteristics:**
- Extreme volatility
- No clear direction
- Erratic price swings
- ATR > 2x average
- Unpredictable
**What It Means:**
- Market panic or euphoria
- News-driven moves
- Emotion dominates logic
- Highest risk environment
**How to Trade:**
- ❌ **STAY OUT!**
- ❌ No positions
- ❌ Wait for stability
- ✅ Protect existing positions
- ✅ Reduce risk
**Expected Behavior:**
- Large intraday swings
- Gaps up/down
- Stop hunts
- Whipsaws
- Eventually calms down
---
## INDICATOR USAGE
### Visual Elements
#### 1. Background Colors
- **Light Green** = Bull Trending (go long)
- **Light Red** = Bear Trending (go short)
- **Light Teal** = Bull Ranging (buy dips)
- **Light Orange** = Bear Ranging (sell rallies)
- **Light Gray** = Consolidation (wait)
- **Purple** = Chaos (stay out!)
#### 2. Regime Labels
- Appear when regime changes
- Show new regime name
- Positioned at highs (bullish) or lows (bearish)
#### 3. Entry Signals
- **Green "LONG"** labels = Buy here
- **Red "SHORT"** labels = Sell here
- Number shows confluence score (X/5 signals)
- Hover for details (stop, target, RSI, etc.)
#### 4. Exit Signals
- **Orange "EXIT LONG"** = Close long position
- **Orange "EXIT SHORT"** = Close short position
- Shows exit reason in tooltip
#### 5. Support/Resistance Lines
- **Green line** = Dynamic support (buy zone)
- **Red line** = Dynamic resistance (sell zone)
- Adapts to regime automatically
#### 6. Moving Averages
- **Blue** = SMA 20 (short-term trend)
- **Orange** = SMA 50 (medium-term trend)
- **Purple** = SMA 200 (long-term trend)
### Information Tables
#### Top Right Table (Main Info)
Shows real-time market conditions:
- **Current Regime** - What regime we're in
- **Bias** - Long, Short, Breakout, or Stay Out
- **ADX** - Trend strength (>25 = strong)
- **Trend** - Strong, Moderate, or Weak
- **Volatility** - High or Normal
- **Vol Ratio** - Current vs average volatility
- **RSI** - Momentum (>70 overbought, <30 oversold)
- **vs SMA50/200** - Price position relative to MAs
- **Support/Resistance** - Exact price levels
- **Long/Short Signals** - Confluence scores (X/5)
#### Bottom Right Table (Regime Guide)
Quick reference for each regime:
- What action to take
- What strategy to use
- Color-coded for quick identification
---
## ENTRY SIGNALS EXPLAINED
### Confluence Scoring System (5 Factors)
Each entry signal is scored 0-5 based on how many factors align:
#### For LONG Entries:
1. ✅ **Regime Alignment** - In Bull Trending or Bull Ranging
2. ✅ **RSI Pullback** - RSI between 35-50 (not overbought)
3. ✅ **Near Support** - Price within 2% of dynamic support
4. ✅ **MACD Turning Up** - Momentum shifting bullish
5. ✅ **Volume Confirmation** - Above average volume
#### For SHORT Entries:
1. ✅ **Regime Alignment** - In Bear Trending or Bear Ranging
2. ✅ **RSI Rejection** - RSI between 50-65 (not oversold)
3. ✅ **Near Resistance** - Price within 2% of dynamic resistance
4. ✅ **MACD Turning Down** - Momentum shifting bearish
5. ✅ **Volume Confirmation** - Above average volume
### Confluence Requirements
**Minimum Confluence** (default = 2):
- 2/5 = Entry signal triggered
- 3/5 = Good signal
- 4/5 = Strong signal
- 5/5 = Excellent signal (rare)
**Higher confluence = Higher probability = Better trades**
### Specific Entry Patterns
#### 1. Bull Trending Entry
```
Requirements:
- Regime = Bull Trending
- Price pulls back to EMA20
- Close above EMA20 (bounce)
- Up candle (close > open)
- RSI < 60
- Confluence ≥ 2
```
#### 2. Bear Trending Entry
```
Requirements:
- Regime = Bear Trending
- Price rallies to EMA20
- Close below EMA20 (rejection)
- Down candle (close < open)
- RSI > 40
- Confluence ≥ 2
```
#### 3. Bull Ranging Entry
```
Requirements:
- Regime = Bull Ranging
- RSI < 40 (oversold)
- Price at or below support
- Up candle (reversal)
- Confluence ≥ 1 (more lenient)
```
#### 4. Bear Ranging Entry
```
Requirements:
- Regime = Bear Ranging
- RSI > 60 (overbought)
- Price at or above resistance
- Down candle (rejection)
- Confluence ≥ 1 (more lenient)
```
#### 5. Consolidation Breakout
```
Requirements:
- Regime = Consolidation
- Price breaks above/below range
- Volume > 1.5x average (explosive)
- Strong directional candle
```
---
## EXIT SIGNALS EXPLAINED
### Three Types of Exits
#### 1. Regime Change Exits (Automatic)
- **Long Exit**: Regime changes to Bear Trending or Chaos
- **Short Exit**: Regime changes to Bull Trending or Chaos
- **Reason**: Market character changed, strategy no longer valid
#### 2. Support/Resistance Break Exits
- **Long Exit**: Price breaks below support by 2%
- **Short Exit**: Price breaks above resistance by 2%
- **Reason**: Key level violated, trend may be reversing
#### 3. Momentum Exits
- **Long Exit**: RSI > 70 (overbought) AND down candle
- **Short Exit**: RSI < 30 (oversold) AND up candle
- **Reason**: Overextension, take profits
### Stop Loss & Take Profit
**Stop Loss** (Automatic in strategy):
- Placed at Entry - (ATR × 2)
- Adapts to volatility
- Protected from whipsaws
- Typically 2-4% for stocks, 5-10% for crypto
**Take Profit** (Automatic in strategy):
- Placed at Entry + (Stop Distance × R:R Ratio)
- Default 2.5:1 reward:risk
- Example: $2 risk = $5 reward target
- Allows winners to run
---
## TRADING EACH REGIME
### BULL TRENDING - Most Profitable Long Environment
**Strategy: Buy Every Dip**
**Entry Rules:**
1. Wait for pullback to EMA20 or SMA20
2. Look for RSI < 60
3. Enter when candle closes above MA
4. Confluence should be 2+
**Stop Loss:**
- Below the recent swing low
- Or 2 × ATR below entry
**Take Profit:**
- At previous high
- Or 2.5:1 R:R minimum
**Position Size:**
- Can use full size (2% risk)
- High win rate regime
**Example Trade:**
```
Price: $100, pulls back to $98 (EMA20)
Entry: $98.50 (close above EMA)
Stop: $96.50 (2 ATR)
Target: $103.50 (2.5:1)
Risk: $2, Reward: $5
```
---
### BEAR TRENDING - Most Profitable Short Environment
**Strategy: Sell Every Rally**
**Entry Rules:**
1. Wait for bounce to EMA20 or SMA20
2. Look for RSI > 40
3. Enter when candle closes below MA
4. Confluence should be 2+
**Stop Loss:**
- Above the recent swing high
- Or 2 × ATR above entry
**Take Profit:**
- At previous low
- Or 2.5:1 R:R minimum
**Position Size:**
- Can use full size (2% risk)
- High win rate regime
**Example Trade:**
```
Price: $100, rallies to $102 (EMA20)
Entry: $101.50 (close below EMA)
Stop: $103.50 (2 ATR)
Target: $96.50 (2.5:1)
Risk: $2, Reward: $5
```
---
### BULL RANGING - Buy Low, Sell High
**Strategy: Range Trading (Long Bias)**
**Entry Rules:**
1. Wait for price at support zone
2. Look for RSI < 40
3. Enter on reversal candle
4. Confluence should be 1-2+
**Stop Loss:**
- Below support zone
- Tighter than trending (1.5 ATR)
**Take Profit:**
- At resistance zone
- Don't hold through resistance
**Position Size:**
- Reduce to 1-1.5% risk
- Lower win rate than trending
**Example Trade:**
```
Range: $95-$105
Entry: $96 (at support, RSI 35)
Stop: $94 (below support)
Target: $104 (at resistance)
Risk: $2, Reward: $8 (4:1)
```
---
### BEAR RANGING - Sell High, Buy Low
**Strategy: Range Trading (Short Bias)**
**Entry Rules:**
1. Wait for price at resistance zone
2. Look for RSI > 60
3. Enter on rejection candle
4. Confluence should be 1-2+
**Stop Loss:**
- Above resistance zone
- Tighter than trending (1.5 ATR)
**Take Profit:**
- At support zone
- Don't hold through support
**Position Size:**
- Reduce to 1-1.5% risk
- Lower win rate than trending
**Example Trade:**
```
Range: $95-$105
Entry: $104 (at resistance, RSI 65)
Stop: $106 (above resistance)
Target: $96 (at support)
Risk: $2, Reward: $8 (4:1)
```
---
### CONSOLIDATION - Wait for Breakout
**Strategy: Breakout Trading**
**Entry Rules:**
1. Identify consolidation range
2. Wait for VOLUME SURGE (1.5x+ avg)
3. Enter on close outside range
4. Direction must be clear
**Stop Loss:**
- Opposite side of range
- Or 2 ATR
**Take Profit:**
- Measure range height, project it
- Example: $10 range = $10 move expected
**Position Size:**
- Reduce to 1% risk
- 50% false breakout rate
**Example Trade:**
```
Consolidation: $98-$102 (4-point range)
Breakout: $102.50 (high volume)
Entry: $103
Stop: $100 (back in range)
Target: $107 (4-point range projected)
Risk: $3, Reward: $4
```
---
### CHAOS - STAY OUT!
**Strategy: Preservation**
**What to Do:**
- ❌ NO new positions
- ✅ Close existing positions if near entry
- ✅ Tighten stops on profitable trades
- ✅ Reduce position sizes dramatically
- ✅ Wait for regime to stabilize
**Why It's Dangerous:**
- Stop hunts are common
- Whipsaws everywhere
- News-driven volatility
- No technical reliability
- Even "perfect" setups fail
**When Does It End:**
- Volatility ratio drops < 1.5
- ADX starts rising (direction appears)
- Price respects support/resistance again
- Usually 1-5 days
---
## CONFLUENCE SYSTEM
### How It Works
The system scores each potential entry on 5 factors. More factors aligning = higher probability.
### Confluence Requirements by Regime
**Trending Regimes** (strictest):
- Minimum 2/5 required
- 3/5 = Good
- 4-5/5 = Excellent
**Ranging Regimes** (moderate):
- Minimum 1-2/5 required
- 2/5 = Good
- 3+/5 = Excellent
**Consolidation** (breakout only):
- Volume is most critical
- Direction confirmation
- Less confluence needed
### Adjusting Minimum Confluence
**If too few signals:**
- Lower from 2 to 1
- More trades, lower quality
**If too many false signals:**
- Raise from 2 to 3
- Fewer trades, higher quality
**Recommendation:**
- Start at 2
- Adjust based on win rate
- Aim for 55-65% win rate
---
## STRATEGY BACKTESTING
### Loading the Strategy
1. Copy `market_regime_strategy.pine`
2. Open Pine Editor in TradingView
3. Paste and "Add to Chart"
4. Strategy Tester tab opens at bottom
### Initial Settings
```
Risk Per Trade: 2%
ATR Stop Multiplier: 2.0
Reward:Risk Ratio: 2.5
Trade Longs: ✓
Trade Shorts: ✓
Trade Trending Only: ✗ (test both)
Avoid Chaos: ✓
Minimum Confluence: 2
```
### What to Look For
**Good Results:**
- Win Rate: 50-60%
- Profit Factor: 1.8-2.5
- Net Profit: Positive
- Max Drawdown: <20%
- Consistent equity curve
**Warning Signs:**
- Win Rate: <45% (too many losses)
- Profit Factor: <1.5 (barely profitable)
- Max Drawdown: >30% (too risky)
- Erratic equity curve (unstable)
### Testing Different Regimes
**Test 1: Trending Only**
```
Trade Trending Only: ✓
Result: Higher win rate, fewer trades
```
**Test 2: All Regimes**
```
Trade Trending Only: ✗
Result: More trades, potentially lower win rate
```
**Test 3: Long Only**
```
Trade Longs: ✓
Trade Shorts: ✗
Result: Works in bull markets
```
**Test 4: Short Only**
```
Trade Longs: ✗
Trade Shorts: ✓
Result: Works in bear markets
```
---
## SETTINGS OPTIMIZATION
### Key Parameters to Adjust
#### 1. Risk Per Trade (Most Important)
- **0.5%** = Very conservative
- **1.0%** = Conservative (recommended for beginners)
- **2.0%** = Moderate (recommended)
- **3.0%** = Aggressive
- **5.0%** = Very aggressive (not recommended)
**Impact:** Higher risk = higher returns BUT bigger drawdowns
#### 2. Reward:Risk Ratio
- **2:1** = More wins needed, hit target faster
- **2.5:1** = Balanced (recommended)
- **3:1** = Fewer wins needed, hold longer
- **4:1** = Very patient, best in trending
**Impact:** Higher R:R = can have lower win rate
#### 3. Minimum Confluence
- **1** = More signals, lower quality
- **2** = Balanced (recommended)
- **3** = Fewer signals, higher quality
- **4** = Very selective
- **5** = Almost never triggers
**Impact:** Higher = fewer but better trades
#### 4. ADX Thresholds
- **Trending: 20-30** (default 25)
- Lower = detect trends earlier
- Higher = only strong trends
- **Ranging: 15-25** (default 20)
- Lower = identify ranging earlier
- Higher = only weak trends
#### 5. Trend Period (SMA)
- **20-50** = Short-term trends
- **50** = Medium-term (default, recommended)
- **100-200** = Long-term trends
**Impact:** Longer period = slower regime changes, more stable
### Optimization Workflow
**Step 1: Baseline**
- Use all default settings
- Test on 3+ years
- Record: Win Rate, PF, Drawdown
**Step 2: Risk Optimization**
- Test 1%, 1.5%, 2%, 2.5%
- Find best risk-adjusted return
- Balance profit vs drawdown
**Step 3: R:R Optimization**
- Test 2:1, 2.5:1, 3:1
- Check which maximizes profit factor
- Consider holding time
**Step 4: Confluence Optimization**
- Test 1, 2, 3
- Find sweet spot for win rate
- Aim for 55-65% win rate
**Step 5: Regime Filter**
- Test with/without trend filter
- Test with/without chaos filter
- Find what works for your asset
---
## REAL TRADING EXAMPLES
### Example 1: Bull Trending - SPY
**Setup:**
- Regime: BULL TRENDING
- Price pulls back from $450 to $445
- EMA20 at $444
- RSI drops to 45
- Confluence: 4/5
**Entry:**
- Price closes at $445.50 (above EMA20)
- LONG signal appears
- Enter at $445.50
**Risk Management:**
- Stop: $443 (2 ATR = $2.50)
- Target: $451.75 (2.5:1 = $6.25)
- Risk: $2.50 per share
- Position: 80 shares (2% of $10k = $200 risk)
**Outcome:**
- Price rallies to $452 in 3 days
- Target hit
- Profit: $6.50 × 80 = $520
- Return: 2.6 × risk (excellent)
---
### Example 2: Bear Ranging - AAPL
**Setup:**
- Regime: BEAR RANGING
- Range: $165-$175
- Price rallies to $174
- Resistance at $175
- RSI at 68
- Confluence: 3/5
**Entry:**
- Rejection candle at $174
- SHORT signal appears
- Enter at $173.50
**Risk Management:**
- Stop: $176 (above resistance)
- Target: $166 (support)
- Risk: $2.50
- Position: 80 shares
**Outcome:**
- Price drops to $167 in 2 days
- Target hit
- Profit: $6.50 × 80 = $520
- Return: 2.6 × risk
---
### Example 3: Consolidation Breakout - BTC
**Setup:**
- Regime: CONSOLIDATION
- Range: $28,000 - $30,000
- Compressed for 2 weeks
- Volume declining
**Breakout:**
- Price breaks $30,000
- Volume surges 200%
- Close at $30,500
- LONG signal
**Entry:**
- Enter at $30,500
**Risk Management:**
- Stop: $29,500 (back in range)
- Target: $32,000 (range height = $2k)
- Risk: $1,000
- Position: 0.2 BTC ($200 risk on $10k)
**Outcome:**
- Price runs to $33,000
- Target exceeded
- Profit: $2,500 × 0.2 = $500
- Return: 2.5 × risk
---
### Example 4: Avoiding Chaos - Tesla
**Setup:**
- Regime: BULL TRENDING
- LONG position from $240
- Elon tweets something crazy
- Regime changes to CHAOS
**Action:**
- EXIT signal appears
- Close position immediately
- Current price: $242 (small profit)
**Outcome:**
- Next 3 days: wild swings
- High $255, Low $230
- By staying out, avoided:
- Potential stop out
- Whipsaw losses
- Stress
**Result:**
- Small profit preserved
- Capital protected
- Re-enter when regime stabilizes
---
## ALERTS SETUP
### Available Alerts
1. **Bull Trending Regime** - Market goes bullish
2. **Bear Trending Regime** - Market goes bearish
3. **Chaos Regime** - High volatility, stay out
4. **Long Entry Signal** - Buy opportunity
5. **Short Entry Signal** - Sell opportunity
6. **Long Exit Signal** - Close long
7. **Short Exit Signal** - Close short
### How to Set Up
1. Click **⏰ (Alert)** icon in TradingView
2. Select **Condition**: Choose indicator + alert type
3. **Options**: Popup, Email, Webhook, etc.
4. **Message**: Customize notification
5. Click **Create**
### Recommended Alert Strategy
**For Active Traders:**
- Long Entry Signal
- Short Entry Signal
- Long Exit Signal
- Short Exit Signal
**For Position Traders:**
- Bull Trending Regime (enter longs)
- Bear Trending Regime (enter shorts)
- Chaos Regime (exit all)
**For Conservative:**
- Only regime change alerts
- Manually review entries
- More selective
---
## TIPS FOR SUCCESS
### 1. Start Small
- Paper trade first
- Then 0.5% risk
- Build to 1-2% over time
### 2. Follow the Regime
- Don't fight it
- Adapt your style
- Different tactics for each
### 3. Trust the Confluence
- 4-5/5 = Best trades
- 2-3/5 = Good trades
- 1/5 = Skip unless desperate
### 4. Respect Exits
- Don't hope and hold
- Cut losses quickly
- Take profits at targets
### 5. Avoid Chaos
- Seriously, just stay out
- Protect your capital
- Wait for clarity
### 6. Keep a Journal
- Record every trade
- Note regime and confluence
- Review weekly
- Learn patterns
### 7. Backtest Thoroughly
- 3+ years minimum
- Multiple market conditions
- Different assets
- Walk-forward test
### 8. Be Patient
- Best setups are rare
- 1-3 trades per week is normal
- Quality over quantity
- Compound over time
---
## COMMON QUESTIONS
**Q: How many trades per month should I expect?**
A: Depends on timeframe and settings. Daily chart: 5-15 trades/month. 4H chart: 15-30 trades/month.
**Q: What's a good win rate?**
A: 55-65% is excellent. 50-55% is good. Below 50% needs adjustment.
**Q: Should I trade all regimes?**
A: Beginners: Only trending. Intermediate: Trending + ranging. Advanced: All except chaos.
**Q: Can I use this on any timeframe?**
A: Best on Daily and 4H. Works on 1H with more noise. Not recommended <1H.
**Q: What if I'm in a trade and regime changes?**
A: Exit immediately (if using indicator) or let strategy handle it automatically.
**Q: How do I know if I'm over-optimizing?**
A: If results are perfect on one period but fail on another. Use walk-forward testing.
**Q: Should I always take 5/5 confluence trades?**
A: Yes, but they're rare (1-2/month). Don't wait only for these.
**Q: Can I combine this with other indicators?**
A: Yes, but keep it simple. RSI, MACD already included. Maybe add volume profile.
**Q: What assets work best?**
A: Liquid stocks, major crypto, futures. Avoid forex spot (use futures), penny stocks.
**Q: How long to hold positions?**
A: Trending: Days to weeks. Ranging: Hours to days. Breakout: Days. Let the regime guide you.
---
## FINAL THOUGHTS
This system gives you:
- ✅ Clear market context (regime)
- ✅ High-probability entries (confluence)
- ✅ Defined exits (automatic signals)
- ✅ Adaptable tactics (regime-specific)
- ✅ Backtestable results (strategy version)
**Success requires:**
- 📚 Understanding each regime
- 🎯 Following the signals
- 💪 Discipline to wait
- 🧠 Emotional control
- 📊 Proper risk management
**Start your journey:**
1. Load the indicator
2. Watch for 1 week (no trading)
3. Identify regime patterns
4. Paper trade for 1 month
5. Go live with small size
6. Scale up as you gain confidence
**Remember:** The market will always be here. There's no rush. Master one regime at a time, and you'll be profitable in all conditions!
Good luck! 🚀
SMI 30m With Built-in Divergence AlertsStochastic Momentum Index SMI 30m is a simplified, single-timeframe Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) designed for traders who want a clean momentum oscillator with clear crossover signals and automatic higher-timeframe filtering.
This version is locked to a 30-minute timeframe, making it consistent across any chart you place it on.
The script plots:
SMI Blue Line – the main momentum line
SMI Orange Line – the signal line (EMA-smoothed)
Overbought / Oversold regions
Optional colored background zones that highlight strong momentum extremes
Both the Blue and Orange plots are fully exposed, allowing users to manually create TradingView alerts for crossovers.
Additionally, the script includes two built-in alert conditions for traders who prefer automatic signals.
How the SMI is calculated
This script uses a double-EMA smoothing method to stabilize momentum:
Highest and lowest price ranges are calculated over the selected %K period.
Relative position of price inside that range is computed.
A double EMA is applied to both the range and the midpoint offset.
The SMI result is scaled to ±200 for clarity.
The Signal Line is a single-EMA applied to the SMI.
These parameters can be adjusted:
%K Length
%D Length
EMA Length
The default values match traditional 13-3-3 SMI settings.
Visual Components
1. SMI Blue Line
Represents the primary momentum movement.
Values above 40 indicate positive momentum; values below −40 indicate negative momentum.
2. SMI Orange Line
Acts as a smoothing signal line.
Crossovers between Blue and Orange often indicate momentum shifts.
3. Overbought / Oversold Zones
+40 = overbought boundary
−40 = oversold boundary
These levels help identify exhaustion points.
4. Gradient High/Low Zones
The script includes colored fill zones above +40 and below −40 to visually highlight extreme momentum regions.
Built-In Alerts
The indicator includes two pre-configured alert conditions:
1. Bearish Cross (Overbought)
Triggers when:
The Blue SMI crosses below the Orange SMI
AND the Blue SMI value is above 80
This represents a potential bearish divergence or momentum reversal from extreme highs.
Alert title:
SMI Bearish Cross
2. Bullish Cross (Oversold)
Triggers when:
The Blue SMI crosses above the Orange SMI
AND the Blue SMI value is below −80
This represents a potential bullish divergence or reversal from extreme lows.
Alert title:
SMI Bullish Cross
How to Use Alerts
After adding the indicator to your chart:
Open the Alerts panel
Select Condition → SMI (1 TF) 30m
Choose either:
SMI Bearish Cross
SMI Bullish Cross
Set your preferred trigger method:
Once per bar close
Once per bar
Once per minute
Create the alert
Traders can also manually create alerts for:
Blue crossing above Orange
Blue crossing below Orange
Because both plots are fully exposed.
Purpose
This indicator is intended for traders who want a stable, single-timeframe SMI with:
Clear structure
Extreme-zone highlighting
Exposed plots for custom alerts
Built-in reversal alerts
Consistent 30-minute TF regardless of chart
It can be used for:
Identifying trend reversals
Detecting momentum exhaustion
Confirming entries/exits
Spotting early divergence signals
Advanced Speedometer Gauge [PhenLabs]Advanced Speedometer Gauge
Version: PineScript™v6
📌 Description
The Advanced Speedometer Gauge is a revolutionary multi-metric visualization tool that consolidates 13 distinct trading indicators into a single, intuitive speedometer display. Instead of cluttering your workspace with multiple oscillators and panels, this gauge provides a unified interface where you can switch between different metrics while maintaining consistent visual interpretation.
Built on PineScript™ v6, the indicator transforms complex technical calculations into an easy-to-read semi-circular gauge with color-coded zones and a precision needle indicator. Each of the 13 available metrics has been carefully normalized to a 0-100 scale, ensuring that whether you’re analyzing RSI, volume trends, or volatility extremes, the visual interpretation remains consistent and intuitive.
The gauge is designed for traders who value efficiency and clarity. By consolidating multiple analytical perspectives into one compact display, you can quickly assess market conditions without the visual noise of traditional multi-indicator setups. All metrics are non-overlapping, meaning each provides unique insights into different aspects of market behavior.
🚀 Points of Innovation
13 selectable metrics covering momentum, volume, volatility, trend, and statistical analysis, all accessible through a single dropdown menu
Universal 0-100 normalization system that standardizes different indicator scales for consistent visual interpretation across all metrics
Semi-circular gauge design with 21 arc segments providing smooth precision and clear visual feedback through color-coded zones
Non-redundant metric selection ensuring each indicator provides unique market insights without analytical overlap
Advanced metrics including MFI (volume-weighted momentum), CCI (statistical deviation), Volatility Rank (extended lookback), Trend Strength (ADX-style), Choppiness Index, Volume Trend, and Price Distance from MA
Flexible positioning system with 5 chart locations, 3 size options, and fully customizable color schemes for optimal workspace integration
🔧 Core Components
Metric Selection Engine: Dropdown interface allowing instant switching between 13 different technical indicators, each with independent parameter controls
Normalization System: All metrics converted to 0-100 scale using indicator-specific algorithms that preserve the statistical significance of each measurement
Semi-Circular Gauge: Visual display using 21 arc segments arranged in curved formation with two-row thickness for enhanced visibility
Color Zone System: Three distinct zones (0-40 green, 40-70 yellow, 70-100 red) providing instant visual feedback on metric extremes
Needle Indicator: Dynamic pointer that positions across the gauge arc based on precise current metric value
Table Implementation: Professional table structure ensuring consistent positioning and rendering across different chart configurations
🔥 Key Features
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Classic momentum oscillator measuring overbought/oversold conditions with adjustable period length (default 14)
Stochastic Oscillator: Compares closing price to price range over specified period with smoothing, ideal for identifying momentum shifts
MFI (Money Flow Index): Volume-weighted RSI that combines price movement with volume to measure buying and selling pressure intensity
CCI (Commodity Channel Index): Measures statistical deviation from average price, normalized from typical -200 to +200 range to 0-100 scale
Williams %R: Alternative overbought/oversold indicator using high-low range analysis, inverted to match 0-100 scale conventions
Volume %: Current volume relative to moving average expressed as percentage, capped at 100 for extreme spikes
Volume Trend: Cumulative directional volume flow showing whether volume is flowing into up moves or down moves over specified period
ATR Percentile: Current Average True Range position within historical range using specified lookback period (default 100 bars)
Volatility Rank: Close-to-close volatility measured against extended historical range (default 252 days), differs from ATR in calculation method
Momentum: Rate of change calculation showing price movement speed, centered at 50 and normalized to 0-100 range
Trend Strength: ADX-style calculation using directional movement to quantify trend intensity regardless of direction
Choppiness Index: Measures market choppiness versus trending behavior, where high values indicate ranging markets and low values indicate strong trends
Price Distance from MA: Measures current price over-extension from moving average using standard deviation calculations
🎨 Visualization
Semi-Circular Arc Display: Curved gauge spanning from 0 (left) to 100 (right) with smooth progression and two-row thickness for visibility
Color-Coded Zones: Green zone (0-40) for low/oversold conditions, yellow zone (40-70) for neutral readings, red zone (70-100) for high/overbought conditions
Needle Indicator: Downward-pointing triangle (▼) positioned precisely at current metric value along the gauge arc
Scale Markers: Vertical line markers at 0, 25, 50, 75, and 100 positions with corresponding numerical labels below
Title Display: Merged cell showing “𓄀 PhenLabs” branding plus currently selected metric name in monospace font
Large Value Display: Current metric value shown with two decimal precision in large text directly below title
Table Structure: Professional table with customizable background color, text color, and transparency for minimal chart obstruction
📖 Usage Guidelines
Metric Selection
Select Metric: Default: RSI | Options: RSI, Stochastic, Volume %, ATR Percentile, Momentum, MFI (Money Flow), CCI (Commodity Channel), Williams %R, Volatility Rank, Trend Strength, Choppiness Index, Volume Trend, Price Distance | Choose the technical indicator you want to display on the gauge based on your current analytical needs
RSI Settings
RSI Length: Default: 14 | Range: 1+ | Controls the lookback period for RSI calculation, shorter periods increase sensitivity to recent price changes
Stochastic Settings
Stochastic Length: Default: 14 | Range: 1+ | Lookback period for stochastic calculation comparing close to high-low range
Stochastic Smooth: Default: 3 | Range: 1+ | Smoothing period applied to raw stochastic value to reduce noise and false signals
Volume Settings
Volume MA Length: Default: 20 | Range: 1+ | Moving average period used to calculate average volume for comparison with current volume
Volume Trend Length: Default: 20 | Range: 5+ | Period for calculating cumulative directional volume flow trend
ATR and Volatility Settings
ATR Length: Default: 14 | Range: 1+ | Period for Average True Range calculation used in ATR Percentile metric
ATR Percentile Lookback: Default: 100 | Range: 20+ | Historical range used to determine current ATR position as percentile
Volatility Rank Lookback (Days): Default: 252 | Range: 50+ | Extended lookback period for Volatility Rank metric using close-to-close volatility
Momentum and Trend Settings
Momentum Length: Default: 10 | Range: 1+ | Lookback period for rate of change calculation in Momentum metric
Trend Strength Length: Default: 20 | Range: 5+ | Period for directional movement calculations in ADX-style Trend Strength metric
Advanced Metric Settings
MFI Length: Default: 14 | Range: 1+ | Lookback period for Money Flow Index calculation combining price and volume
CCI Length: Default: 20 | Range: 1+ | Period for Commodity Channel Index statistical deviation calculation
Williams %R Length: Default: 14 | Range: 1+ | Lookback period for Williams %R high-low range analysis
Choppiness Index Length: Default: 14 | Range: 5+ | Period for calculating market choppiness versus trending behavior
Price Distance MA Length: Default: 50 | Range: 10+ | Moving average period used for Price Distance standard deviation calculation
Visual Customization
Position: Default: Top Right | Options: Top Left, Top Right, Bottom Left, Bottom Right, Middle Right | Controls gauge placement on chart for optimal workspace organization
Size: Default: Normal | Options: Small, Normal, Large | Adjusts overall gauge dimensions and text size for different monitor resolutions and preferences
Low Zone Color (0-40): Default: Green (#00FF00) | Customize color for low/oversold zone of gauge arc
Medium Zone Color (40-70): Default: Yellow (#FFFF00) | Customize color for neutral/medium zone of gauge arc
High Zone Color (70-100): Default: Red (#FF0000) | Customize color for high/overbought zone of gauge arc
Background Color: Default: Semi-transparent dark gray | Customize gauge background for contrast and chart integration
Text Color: Default: White (#FFFFFF) | Customize all text elements including title, value, and scale labels
✅ Best Use Cases
Quick visual assessment of market conditions when you need instant feedback on whether an asset is in extreme territory across multiple analytical dimensions
Workspace organization for traders who monitor multiple indicators but want to reduce chart clutter and visual complexity
Metric comparison by switching between different indicators while maintaining consistent visual interpretation through the 0-100 normalization
Overbought/oversold identification using RSI, Stochastic, Williams %R, or MFI depending on whether you prefer price-only or volume-weighted analysis
Volume analysis through Volume %, Volume Trend, or MFI to confirm price movements with corresponding volume characteristics
Volatility monitoring using ATR Percentile or Volatility Rank to identify expansion/contraction cycles and adjust position sizing
Trend vs range identification by comparing Trend Strength (high values = trending) against Choppiness Index (high values = ranging)
Statistical over-extension detection using CCI or Price Distance to identify when price has deviated significantly from normal behavior
Multi-timeframe analysis by duplicating the gauge on different timeframe charts to compare metric readings across time horizons
Educational purposes for new traders learning to interpret technical indicators through consistent visual representation
⚠️ Limitations
The gauge displays only one metric at a time, requiring manual switching to compare different indicators rather than simultaneous multi-metric viewing
The 0-100 normalization, while providing consistency, may obscure the raw values and specific nuances of each underlying indicator
Table-based visualization cannot be exported or saved as an image separately from the full chart screenshot
Optimal parameter settings vary by asset type, timeframe, and market conditions, requiring user experimentation for best results
💡 What Makes This Unique
Unified Multi-Metric Interface: The only gauge-style indicator offering 13 distinct metrics through a single interface, eliminating the need for multiple oscillator panels
Non-Overlapping Analytics: Each metric provides genuinely unique insights—MFI combines volume with price, CCI measures statistical deviation, Volatility Rank uses extended lookback, Trend Strength quantifies directional movement, and Choppiness Index measures ranging behavior
Universal Normalization System: All metrics standardized to 0-100 scale using indicator-appropriate algorithms that preserve statistical meaning while enabling consistent visual interpretation
Professional Visual Design: Semi-circular gauge with 21 arc segments, precision needle positioning, color-coded zones, and clean table implementation that maintains clarity across all chart configurations
Extensive Customization: Independent parameter controls for each metric, five position options, three size presets, and full color customization for seamless workspace integration
🔬 How It Works
1. Metric Calculation Phase:
All 13 metrics are calculated simultaneously on every bar using their respective algorithms with user-defined parameters
Each metric applies its own specific calculation method—RSI uses average gains vs losses, Stochastic compares close to high-low range, MFI incorporates typical price and volume, CCI measures deviation from statistical mean, ATR calculates true range, directional indicators measure up/down movement, and statistical metrics analyze price relationships
2. Normalization Process:
Each calculated metric is converted to a standardized 0-100 scale using indicator-appropriate transformations
Some metrics are naturally 0-100 (RSI, Stochastic, MFI, Williams %R), while others require scaling—CCI transforms from ±200 range, Momentum centers around 50, Volume ratio caps at 2x for 100, ATR and Volatility Rank calculate percentile positions, and Price Distance scales by standard deviations
3. Gauge Rendering:
The selected metric’s normalized value determines the needle position across 21 arc segments spanning 0-100
Each arc segment receives its color based on position—segments 0-8 are green zone, segments 9-14 are yellow zone, segments 15-20 are red zone
The needle indicator (▼) appears in row 5 at the column corresponding to the current metric value, providing precise visual feedback
4. Table Construction:
The gauge uses TradingView’s table system with merged cells for title and value display, ensuring consistent positioning regardless of chart configuration
Rows are allocated as follows: Row 0 merged for title, Row 1 merged for large value display, Row 2 for spacing, Rows 3-4 for the semi-circular arc with curved shaping, Row 5 for needle indicator, Row 6 for scale markers, Row 7 for numerical labels at 0/25/50/75/100
All visual elements update on every bar when barstate.islast is true, ensuring real-time accuracy without performance impact
💡 Note:
This indicator is designed for visual analysis and market condition assessment, not as a standalone trading system. For best results, combine gauge readings with price action analysis, support and resistance levels, and broader market context. Parameter optimization is recommended based on your specific trading timeframe and asset class. The gauge works on all timeframes but may require different parameter settings for intraday versus daily/weekly analysis. Consider using multiple instances of the gauge set to different metrics for comprehensive market analysis without switching between settings.
Dynamic Equity Allocation Model"Cash is Trash"? Not Always. Here's Why Science Beats Guesswork.
Every retail trader knows the frustration: you draw support and resistance lines, you spot patterns, you follow market gurus on social media—and still, when the next bear market hits, your portfolio bleeds red. Meanwhile, institutional investors seem to navigate market turbulence with ease, preserving capital when markets crash and participating when they rally. What's their secret?
The answer isn't insider information or access to exotic derivatives. It's systematic, scientifically validated decision-making. While most retail traders rely on subjective chart analysis and emotional reactions, professional portfolio managers use quantitative models that remove emotion from the equation and process multiple streams of market information simultaneously.
This document presents exactly such a system—not a proprietary black box available only to hedge funds, but a fully transparent, academically grounded framework that any serious investor can understand and apply. The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model (DEAM) synthesizes decades of financial research from Nobel laureates and leading academics into a practical tool for tactical asset allocation.
Stop drawing colorful lines on your chart and start thinking like a quant. This isn't about predicting where the market goes next week—it's about systematically adjusting your risk exposure based on what the data actually tells you. When valuations scream danger, when volatility spikes, when credit markets freeze, when multiple warning signals align—that's when cash isn't trash. That's when cash saves your portfolio.
The irony of "cash is trash" rhetoric is that it ignores timing. Yes, being 100% cash for decades would be disastrous. But being 100% equities through every crisis is equally foolish. The sophisticated approach is dynamic: aggressive when conditions favor risk-taking, defensive when they don't. This model shows you how to make that decision systematically, not emotionally.
Whether you're managing your own retirement portfolio or seeking to understand how institutional allocation strategies work, this comprehensive analysis provides the theoretical foundation, mathematical implementation, and practical guidance to elevate your investment approach from amateur to professional.
The choice is yours: keep hoping your chart patterns work out, or start using the same quantitative methods that professionals rely on. The tools are here. The research is cited. The methodology is explained. All you need to do is read, understand, and apply.
The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model (DEAM) is a quantitative framework for systematic allocation between equities and cash, grounded in modern portfolio theory and empirical market research. The model integrates five scientifically validated dimensions of market analysis—market regime, risk metrics, valuation, sentiment, and macroeconomic conditions—to generate dynamic allocation recommendations ranging from 0% to 100% equity exposure. This work documents the theoretical foundations, mathematical implementation, and practical application of this multi-factor approach.
1. Introduction and Theoretical Background
1.1 The Limitations of Static Portfolio Allocation
Traditional portfolio theory, as formulated by Markowitz (1952) in his seminal work "Portfolio Selection," assumes an optimal static allocation where investors distribute their wealth across asset classes according to their risk aversion. This approach rests on the assumption that returns and risks remain constant over time. However, empirical research demonstrates that this assumption does not hold in reality. Fama and French (1989) showed that expected returns vary over time and correlate with macroeconomic variables such as the spread between long-term and short-term interest rates. Campbell and Shiller (1988) demonstrated that the price-earnings ratio possesses predictive power for future stock returns, providing a foundation for dynamic allocation strategies.
The academic literature on tactical asset allocation has evolved considerably over recent decades. Ilmanen (2011) argues in "Expected Returns" that investors can improve their risk-adjusted returns by considering valuation levels, business cycles, and market sentiment. The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model presented here builds on this research tradition and operationalizes these insights into a practically applicable allocation framework.
1.2 Multi-Factor Approaches in Asset Allocation
Modern financial research has shown that different factors capture distinct aspects of market dynamics and together provide a more robust picture of market conditions than individual indicators. Ross (1976) developed the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, a model that employs multiple factors to explain security returns. Following this multi-factor philosophy, DEAM integrates five complementary analytical dimensions, each tapping different information sources and collectively enabling comprehensive market understanding.
2. Data Foundation and Data Quality
2.1 Data Sources Used
The model draws its data exclusively from publicly available market data via the TradingView platform. This transparency and accessibility is a significant advantage over proprietary models that rely on non-public data. The data foundation encompasses several categories of market information, each capturing specific aspects of market dynamics.
First, price data for the S&P 500 Index is obtained through the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (ticker: SPY). The use of a highly liquid ETF instead of the index itself has practical reasons, as ETF data is available in real-time and reflects actual tradability. In addition to closing prices, high, low, and volume data are captured, which are required for calculating advanced volatility measures.
Fundamental corporate metrics are retrieved via TradingView's Financial Data API. These include earnings per share, price-to-earnings ratio, return on equity, debt-to-equity ratio, dividend yield, and share buyback yield. Cochrane (2011) emphasizes in "Presidential Address: Discount Rates" the central importance of valuation metrics for forecasting future returns, making these fundamental data a cornerstone of the model.
Volatility indicators are represented by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and related metrics. The VIX, often referred to as the market's "fear gauge," measures the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options and serves as a proxy for market participants' risk perception. Whaley (2000) describes in "The Investor Fear Gauge" the construction and interpretation of the VIX and its use as a sentiment indicator.
Macroeconomic data includes yield curve information through US Treasury bonds of various maturities and credit risk premiums through the spread between high-yield bonds and risk-free government bonds. These variables capture the macroeconomic conditions and financing conditions relevant for equity valuation. Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991) showed that the shape of the yield curve has predictive power for future economic activity, justifying the inclusion of these data.
2.2 Handling Missing Data
A practical problem when working with financial data is dealing with missing or unavailable values. The model implements a fallback system where a plausible historical average value is stored for each fundamental metric. When current data is unavailable for a specific point in time, this fallback value is used. This approach ensures that the model remains functional even during temporary data outages and avoids systematic biases from missing data. The use of average values as fallback is conservative, as it generates neither overly optimistic nor pessimistic signals.
3. Component 1: Market Regime Detection
3.1 The Concept of Market Regimes
The idea that financial markets exist in different "regimes" or states that differ in their statistical properties has a long tradition in financial science. Hamilton (1989) developed regime-switching models that allow distinguishing between different market states with different return and volatility characteristics. The practical application of this theory consists of identifying the current market state and adjusting portfolio allocation accordingly.
DEAM classifies market regimes using a scoring system that considers three main dimensions: trend strength, volatility level, and drawdown depth. This multidimensional view is more robust than focusing on individual indicators, as it captures various facets of market dynamics. Classification occurs into six distinct regimes: Strong Bull, Bull Market, Neutral, Correction, Bear Market, and Crisis.
3.2 Trend Analysis Through Moving Averages
Moving averages are among the oldest and most widely used technical indicators and have also received attention in academic literature. Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992) examined in "Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns" the profitability of trading rules based on moving averages and found evidence for their predictive power, although later studies questioned the robustness of these results when considering transaction costs.
The model calculates three moving averages with different time windows: a 20-day average (approximately one trading month), a 50-day average (approximately one quarter), and a 200-day average (approximately one trading year). The relationship of the current price to these averages and the relationship of the averages to each other provide information about trend strength and direction. When the price trades above all three averages and the short-term average is above the long-term, this indicates an established uptrend. The model assigns points based on these constellations, with longer-term trends weighted more heavily as they are considered more persistent.
3.3 Volatility Regimes
Volatility, understood as the standard deviation of returns, is a central concept of financial theory and serves as the primary risk measure. However, research has shown that volatility is not constant but changes over time and occurs in clusters—a phenomenon first documented by Mandelbrot (1963) and later formalized through ARCH and GARCH models (Engle, 1982; Bollerslev, 1986).
DEAM calculates volatility not only through the classic method of return standard deviation but also uses more advanced estimators such as the Parkinson estimator and the Garman-Klass estimator. These methods utilize intraday information (high and low prices) and are more efficient than simple close-to-close volatility estimators. The Parkinson estimator (Parkinson, 1980) uses the range between high and low of a trading day and is based on the recognition that this information reveals more about true volatility than just the closing price difference. The Garman-Klass estimator (Garman and Klass, 1980) extends this approach by additionally considering opening and closing prices.
The calculated volatility is annualized by multiplying it by the square root of 252 (the average number of trading days per year), enabling standardized comparability. The model compares current volatility with the VIX, the implied volatility from option prices. A low VIX (below 15) signals market comfort and increases the regime score, while a high VIX (above 35) indicates market stress and reduces the score. This interpretation follows the empirical observation that elevated volatility is typically associated with falling markets (Schwert, 1989).
3.4 Drawdown Analysis
A drawdown refers to the percentage decline from the highest point (peak) to the lowest point (trough) during a specific period. This metric is psychologically significant for investors as it represents the maximum loss experienced. Calmar (1991) developed the Calmar Ratio, which relates return to maximum drawdown, underscoring the practical relevance of this metric.
The model calculates current drawdown as the percentage distance from the highest price of the last 252 trading days (one year). A drawdown below 3% is considered negligible and maximally increases the regime score. As drawdown increases, the score decreases progressively, with drawdowns above 20% classified as severe and indicating a crisis or bear market regime. These thresholds are empirically motivated by historical market cycles, in which corrections typically encompassed 5-10% drawdowns, bear markets 20-30%, and crises over 30%.
3.5 Regime Classification
Final regime classification occurs through aggregation of scores from trend (40% weight), volatility (30%), and drawdown (30%). The higher weighting of trend reflects the empirical observation that trend-following strategies have historically delivered robust results (Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen, 2012). A total score above 80 signals a strong bull market with established uptrend, low volatility, and minimal losses. At a score below 10, a crisis situation exists requiring defensive positioning. The six regime categories enable a differentiated allocation strategy that not only distinguishes binarily between bullish and bearish but allows gradual gradations.
4. Component 2: Risk-Based Allocation
4.1 Volatility Targeting as Risk Management Approach
The concept of volatility targeting is based on the idea that investors should maximize not returns but risk-adjusted returns. Sharpe (1966, 1994) defined with the Sharpe Ratio the fundamental concept of return per unit of risk, measured as volatility. Volatility targeting goes a step further and adjusts portfolio allocation to achieve constant target volatility. This means that in times of low market volatility, equity allocation is increased, and in times of high volatility, it is reduced.
Moreira and Muir (2017) showed in "Volatility-Managed Portfolios" that strategies that adjust their exposure based on volatility forecasts achieve higher Sharpe Ratios than passive buy-and-hold strategies. DEAM implements this principle by defining a target portfolio volatility (default 12% annualized) and adjusting equity allocation to achieve it. The mathematical foundation is simple: if market volatility is 20% and target volatility is 12%, equity allocation should be 60% (12/20 = 0.6), with the remaining 40% held in cash with zero volatility.
4.2 Market Volatility Calculation
Estimating current market volatility is central to the risk-based allocation approach. The model uses several volatility estimators in parallel and selects the higher value between traditional close-to-close volatility and the Parkinson estimator. This conservative choice ensures the model does not underestimate true volatility, which could lead to excessive risk exposure.
Traditional volatility calculation uses logarithmic returns, as these have mathematically advantageous properties (additive linkage over multiple periods). The logarithmic return is calculated as ln(P_t / P_{t-1}), where P_t is the price at time t. The standard deviation of these returns over a rolling 20-trading-day window is then multiplied by √252 to obtain annualized volatility. This annualization is based on the assumption of independently identically distributed returns, which is an idealization but widely accepted in practice.
The Parkinson estimator uses additional information from the trading range (High minus Low) of each day. The formula is: σ_P = (1/√(4ln2)) × √(1/n × Σln²(H_i/L_i)) × √252, where H_i and L_i are high and low prices. Under ideal conditions, this estimator is approximately five times more efficient than the close-to-close estimator (Parkinson, 1980), as it uses more information per observation.
4.3 Drawdown-Based Position Size Adjustment
In addition to volatility targeting, the model implements drawdown-based risk control. The logic is that deep market declines often signal further losses and therefore justify exposure reduction. This behavior corresponds with the concept of path-dependent risk tolerance: investors who have already suffered losses are typically less willing to take additional risk (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979).
The model defines a maximum portfolio drawdown as a target parameter (default 15%). Since portfolio volatility and portfolio drawdown are proportional to equity allocation (assuming cash has neither volatility nor drawdown), allocation-based control is possible. For example, if the market exhibits a 25% drawdown and target portfolio drawdown is 15%, equity allocation should be at most 60% (15/25).
4.4 Dynamic Risk Adjustment
An advanced feature of DEAM is dynamic adjustment of risk-based allocation through a feedback mechanism. The model continuously estimates what actual portfolio volatility and portfolio drawdown would result at the current allocation. If risk utilization (ratio of actual to target risk) exceeds 1.0, allocation is reduced by an adjustment factor that grows exponentially with overutilization. This implements a form of dynamic feedback that avoids overexposure.
Mathematically, a risk adjustment factor r_adjust is calculated: if risk utilization u > 1, then r_adjust = exp(-0.5 × (u - 1)). This exponential function ensures that moderate overutilization is gently corrected, while strong overutilization triggers drastic reductions. The factor 0.5 in the exponent was empirically calibrated to achieve a balanced ratio between sensitivity and stability.
5. Component 3: Valuation Analysis
5.1 Theoretical Foundations of Fundamental Valuation
DEAM's valuation component is based on the fundamental premise that the intrinsic value of a security is determined by its future cash flows and that deviations between market price and intrinsic value are eventually corrected. Graham and Dodd (1934) established in "Security Analysis" the basic principles of fundamental analysis that remain relevant today. Translated into modern portfolio context, this means that markets with high valuation metrics (high price-earnings ratios) should have lower expected returns than cheaply valued markets.
Campbell and Shiller (1988) developed the Cyclically Adjusted P/E Ratio (CAPE), which smooths earnings over a full business cycle. Their empirical analysis showed that this ratio has significant predictive power for 10-year returns. Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2013) demonstrated in "Value and Momentum Everywhere" that value effects exist not only in individual stocks but also in asset classes and markets.
5.2 Equity Risk Premium as Central Valuation Metric
The Equity Risk Premium (ERP) is defined as the expected excess return of stocks over risk-free government bonds. It is the theoretical heart of valuation analysis, as it represents the compensation investors demand for bearing equity risk. Damodaran (2012) discusses in "Equity Risk Premiums: Determinants, Estimation and Implications" various methods for ERP estimation.
DEAM calculates ERP not through a single method but combines four complementary approaches with different weights. This multi-method strategy increases estimation robustness and avoids dependence on single, potentially erroneous inputs.
The first method (35% weight) uses earnings yield, calculated as 1/P/E or directly from operating earnings data, and subtracts the 10-year Treasury yield. This method follows Fed Model logic (Yardeni, 2003), although this model has theoretical weaknesses as it does not consistently treat inflation (Asness, 2003).
The second method (30% weight) extends earnings yield by share buyback yield. Share buybacks are a form of capital return to shareholders and increase value per share. Boudoukh et al. (2007) showed in "The Total Shareholder Yield" that the sum of dividend yield and buyback yield is a better predictor of future returns than dividend yield alone.
The third method (20% weight) implements the Gordon Growth Model (Gordon, 1962), which models stock value as the sum of discounted future dividends. Under constant growth g assumption: Expected Return = Dividend Yield + g. The model estimates sustainable growth as g = ROE × (1 - Payout Ratio), where ROE is return on equity and payout ratio is the ratio of dividends to earnings. This formula follows from equity theory: unretained earnings are reinvested at ROE and generate additional earnings growth.
The fourth method (15% weight) combines total shareholder yield (Dividend + Buybacks) with implied growth derived from revenue growth. This method considers that companies with strong revenue growth should generate higher future earnings, even if current valuations do not yet fully reflect this.
The final ERP is the weighted average of these four methods. A high ERP (above 4%) signals attractive valuations and increases the valuation score to 95 out of 100 possible points. A negative ERP, where stocks have lower expected returns than bonds, results in a minimal score of 10.
5.3 Quality Adjustments to Valuation
Valuation metrics alone can be misleading if not interpreted in the context of company quality. A company with a low P/E may be cheap or fundamentally problematic. The model therefore implements quality adjustments based on growth, profitability, and capital structure.
Revenue growth above 10% annually adds 10 points to the valuation score, moderate growth above 5% adds 5 points. This adjustment reflects that growth has independent value (Modigliani and Miller, 1961, extended by later growth theory). Net margin above 15% signals pricing power and operational efficiency and increases the score by 5 points, while low margins below 8% indicate competitive pressure and subtract 5 points.
Return on equity (ROE) above 20% characterizes outstanding capital efficiency and increases the score by 5 points. Piotroski (2000) showed in "Value Investing: The Use of Historical Financial Statement Information" that fundamental quality signals such as high ROE can improve the performance of value strategies.
Capital structure is evaluated through the debt-to-equity ratio. A conservative ratio below 1.0 multiplies the valuation score by 1.2, while high leverage above 2.0 applies a multiplier of 0.8. This adjustment reflects that high debt constrains financial flexibility and can become problematic in crisis times (Korteweg, 2010).
6. Component 4: Sentiment Analysis
6.1 The Role of Sentiment in Financial Markets
Investor sentiment, defined as the collective psychological attitude of market participants, influences asset prices independently of fundamental data. Baker and Wurgler (2006, 2007) developed a sentiment index and showed that periods of high sentiment are followed by overvaluations that later correct. This insight justifies integrating a sentiment component into allocation decisions.
Sentiment is difficult to measure directly but can be proxied through market indicators. The VIX is the most widely used sentiment indicator, as it aggregates implied volatility from option prices. High VIX values reflect elevated uncertainty and risk aversion, while low values signal market comfort. Whaley (2009) refers to the VIX as the "Investor Fear Gauge" and documents its role as a contrarian indicator: extremely high values typically occur at market bottoms, while low values occur at tops.
6.2 VIX-Based Sentiment Assessment
DEAM uses statistical normalization of the VIX by calculating the Z-score: z = (VIX_current - VIX_average) / VIX_standard_deviation. The Z-score indicates how many standard deviations the current VIX is from the historical average. This approach is more robust than absolute thresholds, as it adapts to the average volatility level, which can vary over longer periods.
A Z-score below -1.5 (VIX is 1.5 standard deviations below average) signals exceptionally low risk perception and adds 40 points to the sentiment score. This may seem counterintuitive—shouldn't low fear be bullish? However, the logic follows the contrarian principle: when no one is afraid, everyone is already invested, and there is limited further upside potential (Zweig, 1973). Conversely, a Z-score above 1.5 (extreme fear) adds -40 points, reflecting market panic but simultaneously suggesting potential buying opportunities.
6.3 VIX Term Structure as Sentiment Signal
The VIX term structure provides additional sentiment information. Normally, the VIX trades in contango, meaning longer-term VIX futures have higher prices than short-term. This reflects that short-term volatility is currently known, while long-term volatility is more uncertain and carries a risk premium. The model compares the VIX with VIX9D (9-day volatility) and identifies backwardation (VIX > 1.05 × VIX9D) and steep backwardation (VIX > 1.15 × VIX9D).
Backwardation occurs when short-term implied volatility is higher than longer-term, which typically happens during market stress. Investors anticipate immediate turbulence but expect calming. Psychologically, this reflects acute fear. The model subtracts 15 points for backwardation and 30 for steep backwardation, as these constellations signal elevated risk. Simon and Wiggins (2001) analyzed the VIX futures curve and showed that backwardation is associated with market declines.
6.4 Safe-Haven Flows
During crisis times, investors flee from risky assets into safe havens: gold, US dollar, and Japanese yen. This "flight to quality" is a sentiment signal. The model calculates the performance of these assets relative to stocks over the last 20 trading days. When gold or the dollar strongly rise while stocks fall, this indicates elevated risk aversion.
The safe-haven component is calculated as the difference between safe-haven performance and stock performance. Positive values (safe havens outperform) subtract up to 20 points from the sentiment score, negative values (stocks outperform) add up to 10 points. The asymmetric treatment (larger deduction for risk-off than bonus for risk-on) reflects that risk-off movements are typically sharper and more informative than risk-on phases.
Baur and Lucey (2010) examined safe-haven properties of gold and showed that gold indeed exhibits negative correlation with stocks during extreme market movements, confirming its role as crisis protection.
7. Component 5: Macroeconomic Analysis
7.1 The Yield Curve as Economic Indicator
The yield curve, represented as yields of government bonds of various maturities, contains aggregated expectations about future interest rates, inflation, and economic growth. The slope of the yield curve has remarkable predictive power for recessions. Estrella and Mishkin (1998) showed that an inverted yield curve (short-term rates higher than long-term) predicts recessions with high reliability. This is because inverted curves reflect restrictive monetary policy: the central bank raises short-term rates to combat inflation, dampening economic activity.
DEAM calculates two spread measures: the 2-year-minus-10-year spread and the 3-month-minus-10-year spread. A steep, positive curve (spreads above 1.5% and 2% respectively) signals healthy growth expectations and generates the maximum yield curve score of 40 points. A flat curve (spreads near zero) reduces the score to 20 points. An inverted curve (negative spreads) is particularly alarming and results in only 10 points.
The choice of two different spreads increases analysis robustness. The 2-10 spread is most established in academic literature, while the 3M-10Y spread is often considered more sensitive, as the 3-month rate directly reflects current monetary policy (Ang, Piazzesi, and Wei, 2006).
7.2 Credit Conditions and Spreads
Credit spreads—the yield difference between risky corporate bonds and safe government bonds—reflect risk perception in the credit market. Gilchrist and Zakrajšek (2012) constructed an "Excess Bond Premium" that measures the component of credit spreads not explained by fundamentals and showed this is a predictor of future economic activity and stock returns.
The model approximates credit spread by comparing the yield of high-yield bond ETFs (HYG) with investment-grade bond ETFs (LQD). A narrow spread below 200 basis points signals healthy credit conditions and risk appetite, contributing 30 points to the macro score. Very wide spreads above 1000 basis points (as during the 2008 financial crisis) signal credit crunch and generate zero points.
Additionally, the model evaluates whether "flight to quality" is occurring, identified through strong performance of Treasury bonds (TLT) with simultaneous weakness in high-yield bonds. This constellation indicates elevated risk aversion and reduces the credit conditions score.
7.3 Financial Stability at Corporate Level
While the yield curve and credit spreads reflect macroeconomic conditions, financial stability evaluates the health of companies themselves. The model uses the aggregated debt-to-equity ratio and return on equity of the S&P 500 as proxies for corporate health.
A low leverage level below 0.5 combined with high ROE above 15% signals robust corporate balance sheets and generates 20 points. This combination is particularly valuable as it represents both defensive strength (low debt means crisis resistance) and offensive strength (high ROE means earnings power). High leverage above 1.5 generates only 5 points, as it implies vulnerability to interest rate increases and recessions.
Korteweg (2010) showed in "The Net Benefits to Leverage" that optimal debt maximizes firm value, but excessive debt increases distress costs. At the aggregated market level, high debt indicates fragilities that can become problematic during stress phases.
8. Component 6: Crisis Detection
8.1 The Need for Systematic Crisis Detection
Financial crises are rare but extremely impactful events that suspend normal statistical relationships. During normal market volatility, diversified portfolios and traditional risk management approaches function, but during systemic crises, seemingly independent assets suddenly correlate strongly, and losses exceed historical expectations (Longin and Solnik, 2001). This justifies a separate crisis detection mechanism that operates independently of regular allocation components.
Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) documented in "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly" recurring patterns in financial crises: extreme volatility, massive drawdowns, credit market dysfunction, and asset price collapse. DEAM operationalizes these patterns into quantifiable crisis indicators.
8.2 Multi-Signal Crisis Identification
The model uses a counter-based approach where various stress signals are identified and aggregated. This methodology is more robust than relying on a single indicator, as true crises typically occur simultaneously across multiple dimensions. A single signal may be a false alarm, but the simultaneous presence of multiple signals increases confidence.
The first indicator is a VIX above the crisis threshold (default 40), adding one point. A VIX above 60 (as in 2008 and March 2020) adds two additional points, as such extreme values are historically very rare. This tiered approach captures the intensity of volatility.
The second indicator is market drawdown. A drawdown above 15% adds one point, as corrections of this magnitude can be potential harbingers of larger crises. A drawdown above 25% adds another point, as historical bear markets typically encompass 25-40% drawdowns.
The third indicator is credit market spreads above 500 basis points, adding one point. Such wide spreads occur only during significant credit market disruptions, as in 2008 during the Lehman crisis.
The fourth indicator identifies simultaneous losses in stocks and bonds. Normally, Treasury bonds act as a hedge against equity risk (negative correlation), but when both fall simultaneously, this indicates systemic liquidity problems or inflation/stagflation fears. The model checks whether both SPY and TLT have fallen more than 10% and 5% respectively over 5 trading days, adding two points.
The fifth indicator is a volume spike combined with negative returns. Extreme trading volumes (above twice the 20-day average) with falling prices signal panic selling. This adds one point.
A crisis situation is diagnosed when at least 3 indicators trigger, a severe crisis at 5 or more indicators. These thresholds were calibrated through historical backtesting to identify true crises (2008, 2020) without generating excessive false alarms.
8.3 Crisis-Based Allocation Override
When a crisis is detected, the system overrides the normal allocation recommendation and caps equity allocation at maximum 25%. In a severe crisis, the cap is set at 10%. This drastic defensive posture follows the empirical observation that crises typically require time to develop and that early reduction can avoid substantial losses (Faber, 2007).
This override logic implements a "safety first" principle: in situations of existential danger to the portfolio, capital preservation becomes the top priority. Roy (1952) formalized this approach in "Safety First and the Holding of Assets," arguing that investors should primarily minimize ruin probability.
9. Integration and Final Allocation Calculation
9.1 Component Weighting
The final allocation recommendation emerges through weighted aggregation of the five components. The standard weighting is: Market Regime 35%, Risk Management 25%, Valuation 20%, Sentiment 15%, Macro 5%. These weights reflect both theoretical considerations and empirical backtesting results.
The highest weighting of market regime is based on evidence that trend-following and momentum strategies have delivered robust results across various asset classes and time periods (Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen, 2012). Current market momentum is highly informative for the near future, although it provides no information about long-term expectations.
The substantial weighting of risk management (25%) follows from the central importance of risk control. Wealth preservation is the foundation of long-term wealth creation, and systematic risk management is demonstrably value-creating (Moreira and Muir, 2017).
The valuation component receives 20% weight, based on the long-term mean reversion of valuation metrics. While valuation has limited short-term predictive power (bull and bear markets can begin at any valuation), the long-term relationship between valuation and returns is robustly documented (Campbell and Shiller, 1988).
Sentiment (15%) and Macro (5%) receive lower weights, as these factors are subtler and harder to measure. Sentiment is valuable as a contrarian indicator at extremes but less informative in normal ranges. Macro variables such as the yield curve have strong predictive power for recessions, but the transmission from recessions to stock market performance is complex and temporally variable.
9.2 Model Type Adjustments
DEAM allows users to choose between four model types: Conservative, Balanced, Aggressive, and Adaptive. This choice modifies the final allocation through additive adjustments.
Conservative mode subtracts 10 percentage points from allocation, resulting in consistently more cautious positioning. This is suitable for risk-averse investors or those with limited investment horizons. Aggressive mode adds 10 percentage points, suitable for risk-tolerant investors with long horizons.
Adaptive mode implements procyclical adjustment based on short-term momentum: if the market has risen more than 5% in the last 20 days, 5 percentage points are added; if it has declined more than 5%, 5 points are subtracted. This logic follows the observation that short-term momentum persists (Jegadeesh and Titman, 1993), but the moderate size of adjustment avoids excessive timing bets.
Balanced mode makes no adjustment and uses raw model output. This neutral setting is suitable for investors who wish to trust model recommendations unchanged.
9.3 Smoothing and Stability
The allocation resulting from aggregation undergoes final smoothing through a simple moving average over 3 periods. This smoothing is crucial for model practicality, as it reduces frequent trading and thus transaction costs. Without smoothing, the model could fluctuate between adjacent allocations with every small input change.
The choice of 3 periods as smoothing window is a compromise between responsiveness and stability. Longer smoothing would excessively delay signals and impede response to true regime changes. Shorter or no smoothing would allow too much noise. Empirical tests showed that 3-period smoothing offers an optimal ratio between these goals.
10. Visualization and Interpretation
10.1 Main Output: Equity Allocation
DEAM's primary output is a time series from 0 to 100 representing the recommended percentage allocation to equities. This representation is intuitive: 100% means full investment in stocks (specifically: an S&P 500 ETF), 0% means complete cash position, and intermediate values correspond to mixed portfolios. A value of 60% means, for example: invest 60% of wealth in SPY, hold 40% in money market instruments or cash.
The time series is color-coded to enable quick visual interpretation. Green shades represent high allocations (above 80%, bullish), red shades low allocations (below 20%, bearish), and neutral colors middle allocations. The chart background is dynamically colored based on the signal, enhancing readability in different market phases.
10.2 Dashboard Metrics
A tabular dashboard presents key metrics compactly. This includes current allocation, cash allocation (complement), an aggregated signal (BULLISH/NEUTRAL/BEARISH), current market regime, VIX level, market drawdown, and crisis status.
Additionally, fundamental metrics are displayed: P/E Ratio, Equity Risk Premium, Return on Equity, Debt-to-Equity Ratio, and Total Shareholder Yield. This transparency allows users to understand model decisions and form their own assessments.
Component scores (Regime, Risk, Valuation, Sentiment, Macro) are also displayed, each normalized on a 0-100 scale. This shows which factors primarily drive the current recommendation. If, for example, the Risk score is very low (20) while other scores are moderate (50-60), this indicates that risk management considerations are pulling allocation down.
10.3 Component Breakdown (Optional)
Advanced users can display individual components as separate lines in the chart. This enables analysis of component dynamics: do all components move synchronously, or are there divergences? Divergences can be particularly informative. If, for example, the market regime is bullish (high score) but the valuation component is very negative, this signals an overbought market not fundamentally supported—a classic "bubble warning."
This feature is disabled by default to keep the chart clean but can be activated for deeper analysis.
10.4 Confidence Bands
The model optionally displays uncertainty bands around the main allocation line. These are calculated as ±1 standard deviation of allocation over a rolling 20-period window. Wide bands indicate high volatility of model recommendations, suggesting uncertain market conditions. Narrow bands indicate stable recommendations.
This visualization implements a concept of epistemic uncertainty—uncertainty about the model estimate itself, not just market volatility. In phases where various indicators send conflicting signals, the allocation recommendation becomes more volatile, manifesting in wider bands. Users can understand this as a warning to act more cautiously or consult alternative information sources.
11. Alert System
11.1 Allocation Alerts
DEAM implements an alert system that notifies users of significant events. Allocation alerts trigger when smoothed allocation crosses certain thresholds. An alert is generated when allocation reaches 80% (from below), signaling strong bullish conditions. Another alert triggers when allocation falls to 20%, indicating defensive positioning.
These thresholds are not arbitrary but correspond with boundaries between model regimes. An allocation of 80% roughly corresponds to a clear bull market regime, while 20% corresponds to a bear market regime. Alerts at these points are therefore informative about fundamental regime shifts.
11.2 Crisis Alerts
Separate alerts trigger upon detection of crisis and severe crisis. These alerts have highest priority as they signal large risks. A crisis alert should prompt investors to review their portfolio and potentially take defensive measures beyond the automatic model recommendation (e.g., hedging through put options, rebalancing to more defensive sectors).
11.3 Regime Change Alerts
An alert triggers upon change of market regime (e.g., from Neutral to Correction, or from Bull Market to Strong Bull). Regime changes are highly informative events that typically entail substantial allocation changes. These alerts enable investors to proactively respond to changes in market dynamics.
11.4 Risk Breach Alerts
A specialized alert triggers when actual portfolio risk utilization exceeds target parameters by 20%. This is a warning signal that the risk management system is reaching its limits, possibly because market volatility is rising faster than allocation can be reduced. In such situations, investors should consider manual interventions.
12. Practical Application and Limitations
12.1 Portfolio Implementation
DEAM generates a recommendation for allocation between equities (S&P 500) and cash. Implementation by an investor can take various forms. The most direct method is using an S&P 500 ETF (e.g., SPY, VOO) for equity allocation and a money market fund or savings account for cash allocation.
A rebalancing strategy is required to synchronize actual allocation with model recommendation. Two approaches are possible: (1) rule-based rebalancing at every 10% deviation between actual and target, or (2) time-based monthly rebalancing. Both have trade-offs between responsiveness and transaction costs. Empirical evidence (Jaconetti, Kinniry, and Zilbering, 2010) suggests rebalancing frequency has moderate impact on performance, and investors should optimize based on their transaction costs.
12.2 Adaptation to Individual Preferences
The model offers numerous adjustment parameters. Component weights can be modified if investors place more or less belief in certain factors. A fundamentally-oriented investor might increase valuation weight, while a technical trader might increase regime weight.
Risk target parameters (target volatility, max drawdown) should be adapted to individual risk tolerance. Younger investors with long investment horizons can choose higher target volatility (15-18%), while retirees may prefer lower volatility (8-10%). This adjustment systematically shifts average equity allocation.
Crisis thresholds can be adjusted based on preference for sensitivity versus specificity of crisis detection. Lower thresholds (e.g., VIX > 35 instead of 40) increase sensitivity (more crises are detected) but reduce specificity (more false alarms). Higher thresholds have the reverse effect.
12.3 Limitations and Disclaimers
DEAM is based on historical relationships between indicators and market performance. There is no guarantee these relationships will persist in the future. Structural changes in markets (e.g., through regulation, technology, or central bank policy) can break established patterns. This is the fundamental problem of induction in financial science (Taleb, 2007).
The model is optimized for US equities (S&P 500). Application to other markets (international stocks, bonds, commodities) would require recalibration. The indicators and thresholds are specific to the statistical properties of the US equity market.
The model cannot eliminate losses. Even with perfect crisis prediction, an investor following the model would lose money in bear markets—just less than a buy-and-hold investor. The goal is risk-adjusted performance improvement, not risk elimination.
Transaction costs are not modeled. In practice, spreads, commissions, and taxes reduce net returns. Frequent trading can cause substantial costs. Model smoothing helps minimize this, but users should consider their specific cost situation.
The model reacts to information; it does not anticipate it. During sudden shocks (e.g., 9/11, COVID-19 lockdowns), the model can only react after price movements, not before. This limitation is inherent to all reactive systems.
12.4 Relationship to Other Strategies
DEAM is a tactical asset allocation approach and should be viewed as a complement, not replacement, for strategic asset allocation. Brinson, Hood, and Beebower (1986) showed in their influential study "Determinants of Portfolio Performance" that strategic asset allocation (long-term policy allocation) explains the majority of portfolio performance, but this leaves room for tactical adjustments based on market timing.
The model can be combined with value and momentum strategies at the individual stock level. While DEAM controls overall market exposure, within-equity decisions can be optimized through stock-picking models. This separation between strategic (market exposure) and tactical (stock selection) levels follows classical portfolio theory.
The model does not replace diversification across asset classes. A complete portfolio should also include bonds, international stocks, real estate, and alternative investments. DEAM addresses only the US equity allocation decision within a broader portfolio.
13. Scientific Foundation and Evaluation
13.1 Theoretical Consistency
DEAM's components are based on established financial theory and empirical evidence. The market regime component follows from regime-switching models (Hamilton, 1989) and trend-following literature. The risk management component implements volatility targeting (Moreira and Muir, 2017) and modern portfolio theory (Markowitz, 1952). The valuation component is based on discounted cash flow theory and empirical value research (Campbell and Shiller, 1988; Fama and French, 1992). The sentiment component integrates behavioral finance (Baker and Wurgler, 2006). The macro component uses established business cycle indicators (Estrella and Mishkin, 1998).
This theoretical grounding distinguishes DEAM from purely data-mining-based approaches that identify patterns without causal theory. Theory-guided models have greater probability of functioning out-of-sample, as they are based on fundamental mechanisms, not random correlations (Lo and MacKinlay, 1990).
13.2 Empirical Validation
While this document does not present detailed backtest analysis, it should be noted that rigorous validation of a tactical asset allocation model should include several elements:
In-sample testing establishes whether the model functions at all in the data on which it was calibrated. Out-of-sample testing is crucial: the model should be tested in time periods not used for development. Walk-forward analysis, where the model is successively trained on rolling windows and tested in the next window, approximates real implementation.
Performance metrics should be risk-adjusted. Pure return consideration is misleading, as higher returns often only compensate for higher risk. Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, Calmar Ratio, and Maximum Drawdown are relevant metrics. Comparison with benchmarks (Buy-and-Hold S&P 500, 60/40 Stock/Bond portfolio) contextualizes performance.
Robustness checks test sensitivity to parameter variation. If the model only functions at specific parameter settings, this indicates overfitting. Robust models show consistent performance over a range of plausible parameters.
13.3 Comparison with Existing Literature
DEAM fits into the broader literature on tactical asset allocation. Faber (2007) presented a simple momentum-based timing system that goes long when the market is above its 10-month average, otherwise cash. This simple system avoided large drawdowns in bear markets. DEAM can be understood as a sophistication of this approach that integrates multiple information sources.
Ilmanen (2011) discusses various timing factors in "Expected Returns" and argues for multi-factor approaches. DEAM operationalizes this philosophy. Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2013) showed that value and momentum effects work across asset classes, justifying cross-asset application of regime and valuation signals.
Ang (2014) emphasizes in "Asset Management: A Systematic Approach to Factor Investing" the importance of systematic, rule-based approaches over discretionary decisions. DEAM is fully systematic and eliminates emotional biases that plague individual investors (overconfidence, hindsight bias, loss aversion).
References
Ang, A. (2014) *Asset Management: A Systematic Approach to Factor Investing*. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Ang, A., Piazzesi, M. and Wei, M. (2006) 'What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?', *Journal of Econometrics*, 131(1-2), pp. 359-403.
Asness, C.S. (2003) 'Fight the Fed Model', *The Journal of Portfolio Management*, 30(1), pp. 11-24.
Asness, C.S., Moskowitz, T.J. and Pedersen, L.H. (2013) 'Value and Momentum Everywhere', *The Journal of Finance*, 68(3), pp. 929-985.
Baker, M. and Wurgler, J. (2006) 'Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns', *The Journal of Finance*, 61(4), pp. 1645-1680.
Baker, M. and Wurgler, J. (2007) 'Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market', *Journal of Economic Perspectives*, 21(2), pp. 129-152.
Baur, D.G. and Lucey, B.M. (2010) 'Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold', *Financial Review*, 45(2), pp. 217-229.
Bollerslev, T. (1986) 'Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity', *Journal of Econometrics*, 31(3), pp. 307-327.
Boudoukh, J., Michaely, R., Richardson, M. and Roberts, M.R. (2007) 'On the Importance of Measuring Payout Yield: Implications for Empirical Asset Pricing', *The Journal of Finance*, 62(2), pp. 877-915.
Brinson, G.P., Hood, L.R. and Beebower, G.L. (1986) 'Determinants of Portfolio Performance', *Financial Analysts Journal*, 42(4), pp. 39-44.
Brock, W., Lakonishok, J. and LeBaron, B. (1992) 'Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns', *The Journal of Finance*, 47(5), pp. 1731-1764.
Calmar, T.W. (1991) 'The Calmar Ratio', *Futures*, October issue.
Campbell, J.Y. and Shiller, R.J. (1988) 'The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors', *Review of Financial Studies*, 1(3), pp. 195-228.
Cochrane, J.H. (2011) 'Presidential Address: Discount Rates', *The Journal of Finance*, 66(4), pp. 1047-1108.
Damodaran, A. (2012) *Equity Risk Premiums: Determinants, Estimation and Implications*. Working Paper, Stern School of Business.
Engle, R.F. (1982) 'Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation', *Econometrica*, 50(4), pp. 987-1007.
Estrella, A. and Hardouvelis, G.A. (1991) 'The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity', *The Journal of Finance*, 46(2), pp. 555-576.
Estrella, A. and Mishkin, F.S. (1998) 'Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators', *Review of Economics and Statistics*, 80(1), pp. 45-61.
Faber, M.T. (2007) 'A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation', *The Journal of Wealth Management*, 9(4), pp. 69-79.
Fama, E.F. and French, K.R. (1989) 'Business Conditions and Expected Returns on Stocks and Bonds', *Journal of Financial Economics*, 25(1), pp. 23-49.
Fama, E.F. and French, K.R. (1992) 'The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns', *The Journal of Finance*, 47(2), pp. 427-465.
Garman, M.B. and Klass, M.J. (1980) 'On the Estimation of Security Price Volatilities from Historical Data', *Journal of Business*, 53(1), pp. 67-78.
Gilchrist, S. and Zakrajšek, E. (2012) 'Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations', *American Economic Review*, 102(4), pp. 1692-1720.
Gordon, M.J. (1962) *The Investment, Financing, and Valuation of the Corporation*. Homewood: Irwin.
Graham, B. and Dodd, D.L. (1934) *Security Analysis*. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Hamilton, J.D. (1989) 'A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle', *Econometrica*, 57(2), pp. 357-384.
Ilmanen, A. (2011) *Expected Returns: An Investor's Guide to Harvesting Market Rewards*. Chichester: Wiley.
Jaconetti, C.M., Kinniry, F.M. and Zilbering, Y. (2010) 'Best Practices for Portfolio Rebalancing', *Vanguard Research Paper*.
Jegadeesh, N. and Titman, S. (1993) 'Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency', *The Journal of Finance*, 48(1), pp. 65-91.
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Trend/Range Composite (Single-Line) v1.4🔹 Step 1: Add it to your chart
Copy the whole script.
In TradingView → Pine Editor → paste it.
Click Add to chart.
It will show a white line in a subwindow, plus thresholds at 40 and 60, and a colored background.
Optional: You’ll see a status box (top-right of chart) with details like ADX, ATR, slope, etc.
🔹 Step 2: Understand the Score
The indicator compresses all signals into a 0–100 “Trend Strength Score”:
≥ 60 = TREND (teal background)
→ Market is trending, consider trend strategies like vertical spreads, runners, breakouts.
≤ 40 = RANGE (orange background)
→ Market is choppy/sideways, consider range strategies like butterflies, condors, mean-reversion fades.
40–60 = MIXED (gray background)
→ Indecision / chop. Best to reduce size or wait for clarity.
🔹 Step 3: Use with Your Trading Plan
Intraday (5m, 15m, 30m)
Score < 40 → play support/resistance bounces, fade extremes.
Score > 60 → play momentum breakouts or pullback continuations.
Daily chart
Good for swing context (is this month trending or just chopping?).
🔹 Step 4: Alerts
You can set TradingView alerts:
Cross above 60 → market entering trend mode.
Cross below 40 → market entering range mode.
Useful if you don’t want to watch constantly.
🔹 Step 5: Confirm with Price Levels
The score tells you “trend vs range”, but you still need levels:
If score < 40 → mark PDH / PDL (previous day high/low), VAH/VAL, VWAP. Expect rejections/fades.
If score > 60 → watch for breakouts beyond PDH/PDL or supply/demand zones.
Breadth-Driven Swing StrategyWhat it does
This script trades the S&P 500 purely on market breadth extremes:
• Data source : INDEX:S5TH = % of S&P 500 stocks above their own 200-day SMA (range 0–100).
• Buy when breadth is washed-out.
• Sell when breadth is overheated.
It is long-only by design; shorting and ATR trailing stops have been removed to keep the logic minimal and transparent.
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Signals in plain English
1. Long entry
A. A 200-EMA trough in breadth is printed and the trough value is ≤ 40 %.
or
B. A 5-EMA trough appears, its prominence passes the user threshold, and the lowest breadth reading in the last 20 bars is ≤ 20 %.
(Toggle this secondary trigger on/off with “ Enter also on 5-EMA trough ”.)
2. Exit (close long)
First 200-EMA peak whose breadth value is ≥ 70 %.
3. Risk control
A fixed stop-loss (% of entry price, default 8 %) is attached to every long trade.
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Key parameters (defaults shown)
• Long EMA length 200 • Short EMA length 5
• Peak prominence 0.5 pct-pts • Trough prominence 3 pct-pts
• Peak level 70 % • Trough level 40 % • 5-EMA trough level 20 %
• Fixed stop-loss 8 %
• “Enter also on 5-EMA trough” = true (allows additional entries on extreme momentum reversals)
Feel free to tighten or relax any of these thresholds to match your risk profile or account for different market regimes.
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How to use it
1. Load the script on a daily SPX / SPY chart.
(The price chart drives order execution; the breadth series is pulled internally and does not need to be on the chart.)
2. Verify the breadth feed.
INDEX:S5TH is updated after each session; your broker must provide it.
3. Back-test across several cycles.
Two decades of daily data is recommended to see how the rules behave in bear markets, range markets, and bull trends.
4. Adjust position sizing in the Properties tab.
The default is “100 % of equity”; change it if you prefer smaller allocations or pyramiding caps.
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Why it can help
• Breadth signals often lead price, allowing entries before index-level momentum turns.
• Simple, rule-based exits prevent “waiting for confirmation” paralysis.
• Only one input series—easy to audit, no black-box math.
Trade-offs
• Relies on a single breadth metric; other internals (advance/decline, equal-weight returns, etc.) are ignored.
• May sit in cash during shallow pullbacks that never push breadth ≤ 40 %.
• Signals arrive at the end of the session (breadth is EoD data).
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Disclaimer
This script is provided for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Markets are risky; test thoroughly and use your own judgment before trading real money.
ストラテジー概要
本スクリプトは S&P500 のマーケットブレッド（内部需給） だけを手がかりに、指数をスイングトレードします。
• ブレッドデータ : INDEX:S5TH
（S&P500 採用銘柄のうち、それぞれの 200 日移動平均線を上回っている銘柄比率。0–100 %）
• 買い : ブレッドが極端に売られたタイミング。
• 売り : ブレッドが過熱状態に達したタイミング。
余計な機能を削り、ロングオンリー & 固定ストップ のシンプル設計にしています。
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シグナルの流れ
1. ロングエントリー
• 条件 A : 200-EMA がトラフを付け、その値が 40 % 以下
• 条件 B : 5-EMA がトラフを付け、
・プロミネンス条件を満たし
・直近 20 本のブレッドス最小値が 20 % 以下
• B 条件は「5-EMA トラフでもエントリー」を ON にすると有効
2. ロング決済
最初に出現した 200-EMA ピーク で、かつ値が 70 % 以上 のバーで手仕舞い。
3. リスク管理
各トレードに 固定ストップ（初期価格から 8 %）を設定。
⸻
主なパラメータ（デフォルト値）
• 長期 EMA 長さ : 200 • 短期 EMA 長さ : 5
• ピーク判定プロミネンス : 0.5 %pt • トラフ判定プロミネンス : 3 %pt
• ピーク水準 : 70 % • トラフ水準 : 40 % • 5-EMA トラフ水準 : 20 %
• 固定ストップ : 8 %
• 「5-EMA トラフでもエントリー」 : ON
相場環境やリスク許容度に合わせて閾値を調整してください。
⸻
使い方
1. 日足の SPX / SPY チャート にスクリプトを適用。
2. ブレッドデータの供給 (INDEX:S5TH) がブローカーで利用可能か確認。
3. 20 年以上の期間でバックテスト し、強気相場・弱気相場・レンジ局面での挙動を確認。
4. 資金配分 は プロパティ → 戦略実行 で調整可能（初期値は「資金の 100 %」）。
⸻
強み
• ブレッドは 価格より先行 することが多く、天底を早期に捉えやすい。
• ルールベースの出口で「もう少し待とう」と迷わずに済む。
• 入力 series は 1 本のみ、ブラックボックス要素なし。
注意点・弱み
• 単一指標に依存。他の内部需給（A/D ライン等）は考慮しない。
• 40 % を割らない浅い押し目では機会損失が起こる。
• ブレッドは終値ベースの更新。ザラ場中の変化は捉えられない。
⸻
免責事項
本スクリプトは 学習目的 で提供しています。投資助言ではありません。
実取引の前に必ず自己責任で十分な検証とリスク管理を行ってください。
EMA Crossover with RSI and DistanceEMA Crossover with RSI and Distance Strategy
This strategy combines Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) with Relative Strength Index (RSI) and distance-based conditions to generate buy, sell, and neutral signals. It is designed to help traders identify entry and exit points based on multiple technical indicators.
Key Components:
Exponential Moving Averages (EMA):
The strategy uses four EMAs: EMA 5, EMA 13, EMA 40, and EMA 55.
A buy signal (long) is triggered when EMA 5 crosses above EMA 13 and EMA 40 crosses above EMA 55.
A sell signal (short) is generated when EMA 55 crosses above EMA 40.
The distance between EMAs (5 and 13) is also important. If the current distance between EMA 5 and EMA 13 is smaller than the average distance over the last 5 candles, a neutral condition is triggered, preventing a signal even if all other conditions are met.
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
The 14-period RSI is used to determine market strength and direction.
The strategy requires RSI to be above 50 and greater than the average RSI (over the past 14 periods) for a buy signal.
If the RSI is above 60, a green signal is given, indicating a strong bullish condition, even if the EMA conditions are not fully met.
If the RSI is below 40, a red signal is given, indicating a strong bearish condition, regardless of the EMA crossover.
Distance Conditions:
The strategy calculates the distance between EMA 5 and EMA 13 on each candle and compares it to the average distance of the last 5 candles.
If the current distance between EMA 5 and EMA 13 is lower than the average of the last 5 candles, a neutral signal is triggered. This helps avoid entering a trade when the market is losing momentum.
Additionally, if the distance between EMA 40 and EMA 13 is greater than the previous distance, the previous signal is kept intact, ensuring that the trend is still strong enough for the signal to remain valid.
Signal Persistence:
Once a buy (green) or sell (red) signal is triggered, it remains intact as long as the price is closing above EMA 5 for long trades or below EMA 55 for short trades.
If the price moves below EMA 5 for long trades or above EMA 55 for short trades, the signal is recalculated based on the most recent conditions.
Signal Display:
Green Signals: Represent a strong buy signal and are shown below the candle when the RSI is above 60.
Red Signals: Represent a strong sell signal and are shown above the candle when the RSI is below 40.
Neutral Signals: Displayed when the conditions for entry are not met, specifically when the EMA distance condition is violated.
Long and Short Signals: Additional signals are shown based on the EMA crossovers and RSI conditions. These signals are plotted below the candle for long positions and above the candle for short positions.
Trade Logic:
Long Entry: Enter a long trade when EMA 5 crosses above EMA 13, EMA 40 crosses above EMA 55, and the RSI is above 50 and greater than the average RSI. Additionally, the current distance between EMA 5 and EMA 13 should be larger than the average distance of the last 5 candles.
Short Entry: Enter a short trade when EMA 55 crosses above EMA 40 and the RSI is below 40.
Neutral Condition: If the distance between EMA 5 and EMA 13 is smaller than the average distance over the last 5 candles, the strategy will not trigger a signal, even if other conditions are met.
Dual Timeframe Stochastic Momentum Index w/buy sell signalsThis indicator combines momentum analysis across two timeframes to identify high-probability trading opportunities. It plots the Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) for both the chart timeframe and a higher timeframe (default 10 minutes) to help traders align with the broader market trend.
Key Features
Displays SMI and its EMA for both timeframes
Background shading indicates favorable trading conditions
Signal dots mark potential entry points
Customizable parameters for fine-tuning
Signals Explained
Bullish Signals (Green Dots)
Appear when the chart timeframe SMI crosses above its EMA
Only trigger during periods when the higher timeframe shows:
SMI is above its EMA (increasing momentum)
SMI is between -40 and +40 (not overbought/oversold)
Bearish Signals (Red Dots)
Appear when the chart timeframe SMI crosses below its EMA
Only trigger during periods when the higher timeframe shows:
SMI is below its EMA (decreasing momentum)
SMI is between -40 and +40 (not overbought/oversold)
Settings
%K Length: Lookback period for SMI calculation (default: 10)
%D Length: Smoothing period for primary calculation (default: 3)
EMA Length: Smoothing period for signal line (default: 3)
Alternative Timeframe: Higher timeframe for trend analysis (default: 10 minutes)
Best Practices
Use higher timeframe signals to determine market bias
Wait for signal dots in the chart timeframe for entry timing
Avoid trades when higher timeframe SMI is in extreme zones (above 40 or below -40)
Consider additional confirmation from price action or other indicators
Note: This indicator combines trend and momentum analysis but should be used as part of a complete trading strategy that includes proper risk management.
[imba]lance algo🟩 INTRODUCTION
Hello, everyone!
Please take the time to review this description and source code to utilize this script to its fullest potential.
🟩 CONCEPTS
This is a trend indicator. The trend is the 0.5 fibonacci level for a certain period of time.
A trend change occurs when at least one candle closes above the level of 0.236 (for long) or below 0.786 (for short). Also it has massive amout of settings and features more about this below.
With good settings, the indicator works great on any market and any time frame!
A distinctive feature of this indicator is its backtest panel. With which you can dynamically view the results of setting up a strategy such as profit, what the deposit size is, etc.
Please note that the profit is indicated as a percentage of the initial deposit. It is also worth considering that all profit calculations are based on the risk % setting.
🟩 FEATURES
First, I want to show you what you see on the chart. And I’ll show you everything closer and in more detail.
1. Position
2. Statistic panel
3. Backtest panel
Indicator settings:
Let's go in order:
1. Strategies
This setting is responsible for loading saved strategies. There are only two preset settings, MANUAL and UNIVERSAL. If you choose any strategy other than MANUAL, then changing the settings for take profits, stop loss, sensitivity will not bring any results.
You can also save your customized strategies, this is discussed in a separate paragraph “🟩HOW TO SAVE A STRATEGY”
2. Sensitive
Responsible for the time period in bars to create Fibonacci levels
3. Start calculating date
This is the time to start backtesting strategies
4. Position group
Show checkbox - is responsible for displaying positions
Fill checkbox - is responsible for filling positions with background
Risk % - is responsible for what percentage of the deposit you are willing to lose if there is a stop loss
BE target - here you can choose when you reach which take profit you need to move your stop loss to breakeven
Initial deposit- starting deposit for profit calculation
5. Stoploss group
Fixed stoploss % checkbox - If choosed: stoploss will be calculated manually depending on the setting below( formula: entry_price * (1 - stoploss percent)) If NOT choosed: stoploss will be ( formula: fibonacci level(0.786/0.236) * (1 + stoploss percent))
6. Take profit group
This group of settings is responsible for how far from the entry point take profits will be and what % of the position to fix
7. RSI
Responsible for configuring the built-in RSI. Suitable bars will be highlighted with crosses above or below, depending on overbought/oversold
8. Infopanels group
Here I think everything is clear, you can hide or show information panels
9. Developer mode
If enabled, all events that occur will be shown, for example, reaching a take profit or stop loss with detailed information about the unfixed balance of the position
🟩 HOW TO USE
Very simple. All you need is to wait for the trend to change to long or short, you will immediately see a stop loss and four take profits, and you will also see prices. Like in this picture:
🟩 ALERTS
There are 3 types of alerts:
1. Long signal
2. Short signal
3. Any alert() function call - will be send to you json with these fields
{
"side": "LONG",
"entry": "64.454",
"tp1": "65.099",
"tp2": "65.743",
"tp3": "66.388",
"tp4": "67.032",
"winrate": "35.42%",
"strategy": "MANUAL",
"beTargetTrigger": "1",
"stop": "64.44"
}
🟩 HOW TO SAVE A STRATEGY
First, you need to make sure that the “MANUAL” strategy is selected in the strategy settings.
After this, you can start selecting parameters that will show the largest profit in the statistics panel.
I have highlighted what you need to pay attention to when choosing a strategy
Let's assume you have set up a strategy. The main question is how to preserve it?
Let’s say the strategy turned out with the following parameters:
Next we need to find this section of code:
// STRATS
selector(string strategy_name) =>
strategy_settings = Strategy_settings.new()
switch strategy_name
"MANUAL" =>
strategy_settings.sensitivity := 18
strategy_settings.risk_percent := 1
strategy_settings.break_even_target := "1"
strategy_settings.tp1_percent := 1
strategy_settings.tp1_percent_fix := 40
strategy_settings.tp2_percent := 2
strategy_settings.tp2_percent_fix := 30
strategy_settings.tp3_percent := 3
strategy_settings.tp3_percent_fix := 20
strategy_settings.tp4_percent := 4
strategy_settings.tp4_percent_fix := 10
strategy_settings.fixed_stop := false
strategy_settings.sl_percent := 0.0
"UNIVERSAL" =>
strategy_settings.sensitivity := 20
strategy_settings.risk_percent := 1
strategy_settings.break_even_target := "1"
strategy_settings.tp1_percent := 1
strategy_settings.tp1_percent_fix := 40
strategy_settings.tp2_percent := 2
strategy_settings.tp2_percent_fix := 30
strategy_settings.tp3_percent := 3
strategy_settings.tp3_percent_fix := 20
strategy_settings.tp4_percent := 4
strategy_settings.tp4_percent_fix := 10
strategy_settings.fixed_stop := false
strategy_settings.sl_percent := 0.0
// "NEW STRATEGY" =>
// strategy_settings.sensitivity := 20
// strategy_settings.risk_percent := 1
// strategy_settings.break_even_target := "1"
// strategy_settings.tp1_percent := 1
// strategy_settings.tp1_percent_fix := 40
// strategy_settings.tp2_percent := 2
// strategy_settings.tp2_percent_fix := 30
// strategy_settings.tp3_percent := 3
// strategy_settings.tp3_percent_fix := 20
// strategy_settings.tp4_percent := 4
// strategy_settings.tp4_percent_fix := 10
// strategy_settings.fixed_stop := false
// strategy_settings.sl_percent := 0.0
strategy_settings
// STRATS
Let's uncomment on the latest strategy called "NEW STRATEGY" rename it to "SOL 5m" and change the sensitivity:
// STRATS
selector(string strategy_name) =>
strategy_settings = Strategy_settings.new()
switch strategy_name
"MANUAL" =>
strategy_settings.sensitivity := 18
strategy_settings.risk_percent := 1
strategy_settings.break_even_target := "1"
strategy_settings.tp1_percent := 1
strategy_settings.tp1_percent_fix := 40
strategy_settings.tp2_percent := 2
strategy_settings.tp2_percent_fix := 30
strategy_settings.tp3_percent := 3
strategy_settings.tp3_percent_fix := 20
strategy_settings.tp4_percent := 4
strategy_settings.tp4_percent_fix := 10
strategy_settings.fixed_stop := false
strategy_settings.sl_percent := 0.0
"UNIVERSAL" =>
strategy_settings.sensitivity := 20
strategy_settings.risk_percent := 1
strategy_settings.break_even_target := "1"
strategy_settings.tp1_percent := 1
strategy_settings.tp1_percent_fix := 40
strategy_settings.tp2_percent := 2
strategy_settings.tp2_percent_fix := 30
strategy_settings.tp3_percent := 3
strategy_settings.tp3_percent_fix := 20
strategy_settings.tp4_percent := 4
strategy_settings.tp4_percent_fix := 10
strategy_settings.fixed_stop := false
strategy_settings.sl_percent := 0.0
"SOL 5m" =>
strategy_settings.sensitivity := 15
strategy_settings.risk_percent := 1
strategy_settings.break_even_target := "1"
strategy_settings.tp1_percent := 1
strategy_settings.tp1_percent_fix := 40
strategy_settings.tp2_percent := 2
strategy_settings.tp2_percent_fix := 30
strategy_settings.tp3_percent := 3
strategy_settings.tp3_percent_fix := 20
strategy_settings.tp4_percent := 4
strategy_settings.tp4_percent_fix := 10
strategy_settings.fixed_stop := false
strategy_settings.sl_percent := 0.0
strategy_settings
// STRATS
Now let's find this code:
strategy_input = input.string(title = "STRATEGY", options = , defval = "MANUAL", tooltip = "EN:\nTo manually configure the strategy, select MANUAL otherwise, changing the settings won't have any effect\nRU:\nЧтобы настроить стратегию вручную, выберите MANUAL в противном случае изменение настроек не будет иметь никакого эффекта")
And let's add our new strategy there, it turned out like this:
strategy_input = input.string(title = "STRATEGY", options = , defval = "MANUAL", tooltip = "EN:\nTo manually configure the strategy, select MANUAL otherwise, changing the settings won't have any effect\nRU:\nЧтобы настроить стратегию вручную, выберите MANUAL в противном случае изменение настроек не будет иметь никакого эффекта")
That's all. Our new strategy is now saved! It's simple! Now we can select it in the list of strategies:
Financial Radar Chart by zdmreRadar chart is often used when you want to display data across several unique dimensions. Although there are exceptions, these dimensions are usually quantitative, and typically range from zero to a maximum value. Each dimension’s range is normalized to one another, so that when we draw our spider chart, the length of a line from zero to a dimension’s maximum value will be the similar for every dimension.
This Charts are useful for seeing which variables are scoring high or low within a dataset, making them ideal for displaying performance.
How is the score formed?
Debt Paying Ability
if Debt_to_Equity < %10 : 100
elif < 20% : 90
elif < 30% : 80
elif < 40% : 70
elif < 50% : 60
elif < 60% : 50
elif < 70% : 40
elif < 80% : 30
elif < 90% : 20
elif < 100% : 10
else: 0
ROIC
if Return_on_Invested_Capital > %50 : 100
elif > 40% : 90
elif > 30% : 80
elif > 20% : 70
elif > 10% : 50
elif > 5% : 20
else: 0
ROE
if Return_on_Equity > %50 : 100
elif > 40% : 90
elif > 30% : 80
elif > 20% : 70
elif > 10% : 50
elif > 5% : 20
else: 0
Operating Ability
if Operating_Margin > %50 : 100
elif > 30% : 90
elif > 20% : 80
elif > 15% : 60
elif > 10% : 40
elif > 0 : 20
else: 0
EV/EBITDA
if Enterprise_Value_to_EBITDA < 3 : 100
elif < 5 : 80
elif < 7 : 70
elif < 8 : 60
elif < 10 : 40
elif < 12 : 20
else: 0
FREE CASH Ability
if Price_to_Free_Cash_Flow < 5 : 100
elif < 7 : 90
elif < 10 : 80
elif < 16 : 60
elif < 18 : 50
elif < 20 : 40
elif < 22 : 30
elif < 30 : 20
elif < 40 : 15
elif < 50 : 10
elif < 60 : 5
else: 0
GROWTH Ability
if Revenue_One_Year_Growth > %20 : 100
elif > 16% : 90
elif > 14% : 80
elif > 12% : 70
elif > 10% : 50
elif > 7% : 40
elif > 4% : 30
elif > 2% : 20
elif > 0 : 10
else: 0
RSI 30 CROSSScript will give the RSI 30 40 and 70 level for present price of the stock , when the price cross the green line RSI value will be 70 , blue line RSI value will be 40 and red line RSI value will be 30 . Helps to put entry and exit based on RSI strategy.
RED line give price for RSI 30
BLUE line give price for RSI 40
GREEN line give price for RSI 70
BLACK line give SMA 200
Strategy
Stock price should above 200 MA
price should touch RSI 30 RED line and bounce back.
Entry will be the high of candle lies on RSI 40 BLUE line.
Stop loss will be the RSI 30 price(RED line ) during entry.
Target will be the RSI 70 price ( GREEEN line) during entry.
You can take half profit at RSI 70 and trail stop loss on RSI 70 till it cross.
This will help you to find the Price for stock, when it cross RSI value 30 , 40 and 70 to place entry exit and target based on the trade strategy will follow RSI.
If you want to entry, when stock cross RSI 30 or 40 from below . You can place a stop loss limit buy order at price range .
If you want to exit, When stock cross RSI 70 . you place stock loss at green line price.
Reverse Stochastic Momentum Index On ChartIntroducing the Reverse Stochastic Momentum Index "On Chart" version
According to Investopedia :
“The Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) is a more refined version of the stochastic oscillator, employing a wider range of values and having a higher sensitivity to closing prices.”
The SMI is considered a refinement of the stochastic oscillator developed by William Blau and introduced in 1993 in an attempt to provide a more reliable indicator, less subject to false swings.
It calculates the distance of the current closing price as it relates to the median of the high/low range of price.
The SMI has a normal range of values between +100 and -100.
When the present closing price is higher than the median, or midpoint value of the high/low range, the resulting value is positive.
When the current closing price is lower than that of the midpoint of the high/low range, the SMI has a negative value.
Here I have reverse engineered the SMI formula to derive 2 functions.
One function calculates the chart price at which the SMI will reach a particular SMI scale value.
The second function calculates the chart price at which the SMI will crossover its signal line.
I have employed those functions here to give the "crossover" price levels for :
Upper alert level ( default 40, color : aqua blue )
Mid-Line ( default value 0, color : white )
Lower alert level ( default -40, color : purple )
Signal line ( default 13, colors : bright red & lime green )
And also to give the SMI eq price ( colors : red & green )
The midline, upper and lower alert levels return the closing price which would make SMI equal to their respective values
The user can infer from this that.....
Closing above these prices will cause the Stochastic Momentum Index to cross above the associated levels
Closing below these prices will cause the Stochastic Momentum Index to cross below the associated levels
Signal line returns the closing price where Stochastic Momentum Index is equal to its signal line
The user can infer from this that.....
Closing above this price will cause the Stochastic Momentum Index to cross above the signal line
Closing below this price will cause the Stochastic Momentum Index to cross below the signal line
SMI eq price returns the closing price which would make the SMI equal to its previous value
The user can infer from this that.....
Closing above this price will cause the Stochastic Momentum Index to increase
Closing below this price will cause the Stochastic Momentum Index to decrease
Note : all returned prices have a returned value filter to replace any values below zero with zero to help prevent auto focus issues.
These levels are displayed as plotted lines on the chart and also as an optional infobox with choice of displayed info.
This allows the user to see directly on the chart the interplay between the various crossover levels and price action and to precisely plan entries, exits and stops for their SMI based trades.
Traditionally traders and analysts will consider:
Positives values above 40 indicate a bullish trend
Negative values below -40 indicate a bearish trend .
Common traditional ways to derive signals from the SMI :
When the SMI crosses below -40 and then moves back above it, a buy signal is generated.
When the SMI crosses above +40 and then moves back below it, a sell signal is generated.
When the SMI line crosses above the signal line. A signal to buy is generated
When the SMI line crosses below the signal line signal to sell is generated.
When the SMI crosses above the zeroline, signal line and the SMI eq level many interpret that as a full bullish bias signal and take trades only in that direction, vice versa for bearish bias.
Traders also look for divergences between the SMI and price action.
The SMI is often used in conjunction with the Chande Momentum Oscillator or R squared indicator to determine overall market trendiness where the SMI is used to determine the direction of the trend, and also with volume indicators to show if the momentum carries significant selling or buying pressure.
CT Reverse Stochastic Momentum IndexIntroducing the Caretakers Reverse Stochastic Momentum Index .
According to Investopedia :
“The Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) is a more refined version of the stochastic oscillator, employing a wider range of values and having a higher sensitivity to closing prices.”
The SMI was developed by William Blau and introduced in 1993 in an attempt to provide a more reliable indicator, less subject to false swings.
It calculates the distance of the current closing price as it relates to the median of the high/low range of price.
The SMI has a normal range of values between +100 and -100.
When the present closing price is higher than the median, or midpoint value of the high/low range, the resulting value is positive.
When the current closing price is lower than that of the midpoint of the high/low range, the SMI has a negative value.
I have reverse engineered the SMI formula to derive 2 functions.
One function calculates the chart price at which the SMI will reach a particular SMI scale value.
The second function calculates the chart price at which the SMI will crossover its signal line.
I have employed those functions here to give the price level where the SMI will equal :
Upper alert level ( default 40 )
Zero-Line
Lower alert level ( default -40 )
Signal line
The user can infer from these values that when closing prices cross the levels shown, the SMI will cross the indicated level or signal line.
If the price value is less than zero the value will show "impossible".
The advantage of knowing the exact prices that this will happen should give the user an additional edge and precision in risk management.
These crossover levels are displayed via an optional infobox with choice of user selected info.
There is an option to change the decimal places shown.
For easy and intuitive reading of the indicator when ….
SMI is above the signal line both the SMI and Signal line and the space between them is Green.
SMI is below the signal line both the SMI and Signal line and the space between them is Red.
SMI is above the Zeroline the space between them is Green.
SMI is below the Zeroline the space between them is Red.
Traditionally traders and analysts will consider:
Positives values above 40 indicate a bullish trend
Negative values below -40 indicate a bearish trend .
Common traditional ways to derive signals from the SMI :
When the SMI crosses above the zeroline, a buy signal is generated.
When the SMI crosses below the zeroline, a sell signal is generated.
When the SMI crosses below -40 and then moves back above it, a buy signal is generated.
When the SMI crosses above +40 and then moves back below it, a sell signal is generated.
When the SMI line crosses above the signal line. A signal to buy / take profit is generated
When the SMI line crosses below the signal line. A signal to sell / take profit is generated.
Traders also look for divergences between the SMI itself or the SMI histogram and price action.
The SMI is often used in conjunction with the Chande Momentum Oscillator or R squared indicator to determine overall market trendiness where the SMI is used to determine the direction of the trend, and also with volume indicators to show if the momentum carries significant selling or buying pressure.
