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DeeptestDeeptest: Quantitative Backtesting Library for Pine Script ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ █ OVERVIEW Deeptest is a Pine Script library that provides quantitative analysis tools for strategy backtesting. It calculates over 100 statistical metrics including risk-adjusted return ratios (Sharpe, Sortino, Calmar), drawdown analysis, Value at Risk (VaR), Conditional VaR, and performs Monte Carlo simulation and Walk-Forward Analysis. █ WHY THIS LIBRARY MATTERS Pine Script is a simple yet effective coding language for algorithmic and quantitative trading. Its accessibility enables traders to quickly prototype and test ideas directly within TradingView. However, the built-in strategy tester provides only basic metrics (net profit, win rate, drawdown), which is often insufficient for serious strategy evaluation. Due to this limitation, many traders migrate to alternative backtesting platforms that offer comprehensive analytics. These platforms require other language programming knowledge, environment setup, and significant time investment—often just to test a simple trading idea. Deeptest bridges this gap by bringing institutional-level quantitative analytics directly to Pine Script. Traders can now perform sophisticated analysis without leaving TradingView or learning complex external platforms. All calculations are derived from strategy.closedtrades.* , ensuring compatibility with any existing Pine Script strategy. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ █ ORIGINALITY AND USEFULNESS This library is original work that adds value to the TradingView community in the following ways: 1. Comprehensive Metric Suite: Implements 112+ statistical calculations in a single library, including advanced metrics not available in TradingView's built-in tester (p-value, Z-score, Skewness, Kurtosis, Risk of Ruin). 2. Monte Carlo Simulation: Implements trade-sequence randomization to stress-test strategy robustness by simulating 1000+ alternative equity curves. 3. Walk-Forward Analysis: Divides historical data into rolling in-sample and out-of-sample windows to detect overfitting by comparing training vs. testing performance. 4. Rolling Window Statistics: Calculates time-varying Sharpe, Sortino, and Expectancy to analyze metric consistency throughout the backtest period. 5. Interactive Table Display: Renders professional-grade tables with color-coded thresholds, tooltips explaining each metric, and period analysis cards for drawdowns/trades. 6. Benchmark Comparison: Automatically fetches S&P 500 data to calculate Alpha, Beta, and R-squared, enabling objective assessment of strategy skill vs. passive investing. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ █ KEY FEATURES Performance Metrics Net Profit, CAGR, Monthly Return, Expectancy Profit Factor, Payoff Ratio, Sample Size Compounding Effect Analysis Risk Metrics Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, Calmar Ratio (MAR) Martin Ratio, Ulcer Index Max Drawdown, Average Drawdown, Drawdown Duration Risk of Ruin, R-squared (equity curve linearity) Statistical Distribution Value at Risk (VaR 95%), Conditional VaR Skewness (return asymmetry) Kurtosis (tail fatness) Z-Score, p-value (statistical significance testing) Trade Analysis Win Rate, Breakeven Rate, Loss Rate Average Trade Duration, Time in Market Consecutive Win/Loss Streaks with Expected values Top/Worst Trades with R-multiple tracking Advanced Analytics Monte Carlo Simulation (1000+ iterations) Walk-Forward Analysis (rolling windows) Rolling Statistics (time-varying metrics) Out-of-Sample Testing Benchmark Comparison Alpha (excess return vs. benchmark) Beta (systematic risk correlation) Buy & Hold comparison R-squared vs. benchmark ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ █ QUICK START Basic Usage //@version=6 strategy("My Strategy", overlay=true) // Import the library import Fractalyst/Deeptest/1 as * // Your strategy logic fastMA = ta.sma(close, 10) slowMA = ta.sma(close, 30) if ta.crossover(fastMA, slowMA) strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long) if ta.crossunder(fastMA, slowMA) strategy.close("Long") // Run the analysis DT.runDeeptest() ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ █ METRIC EXPLANATIONS The Deeptest table displays 23 metrics across the main row, with 23 additional metrics in the complementary row. Each metric includes detailed tooltips accessible by hovering over the value. Main Row — Performance Metrics (Columns 0-6) Net Profit — (Final Equity - Initial Capital) / Initial Capital × 100 — >20%: Excellent, >0%: Profitable, <0%: Loss — Total return percentage over entire backtest period Payoff Ratio — Average Win / Average Loss — >1.5: Excellent, >1.0: Good, <1.0: Losses exceed wins — Average winning trade size relative to average losing trade. Breakeven win rate = 100% / (1 + Payoff) Sample Size — Count of closed trades — >=30: Statistically valid, <30: Insufficient data — Number of completed trades. Includes 95% confidence interval for win rate in tooltip Profit Factor — Gross Profit / Gross Loss — >=1.5: Excellent, >1.0: Profitable, <1.0: Losing — Ratio of total winnings to total losses. Uses absolute values unlike payoff ratio CAGR — (Final / Initial)^(365.25 / Days) - 1 — >=10%: Excellent, >0%: Positive growth — Compound Annual Growth Rate - annualized return accounting for compounding Expectancy — Sum of all returns / Trade count — >0.20%: Excellent, >0%: Positive edge — Average return per trade as percentage. Positive expectancy indicates profitable edge Monthly Return — Net Profit / (Months in test) — >0%: Profitable month average — Average monthly return. Geometric monthly also shown in tooltip Main Row — Trade Statistics (Columns 7-14) Avg Duration — Average time in position per trade — Mean holding period from entry to exit. Influenced by timeframe and trading style Max CW — Longest consecutive winning streak — Maximum consecutive wins. Expected value = ln(trades) / ln(1/winRate) Max CL — Longest consecutive losing streak — Maximum consecutive losses. Important for psychological risk tolerance Win Rate — Wins / Total Trades — Higher is better — Percentage of profitable trades. Breakeven win rate shown in tooltip BE Rate — Breakeven Trades / Total Trades — Lower is better — Percentage of trades that broke even (neither profit nor loss) Loss Rate — Losses / Total Trades — Lower is better — Percentage of unprofitable trades. Together with win rate and BE rate, sums to 100% Frequency — Trades per month — Trading activity level. Displays intelligently (e.g., "12/mo", "1.5/wk", "3/day") Exposure — Time in market / Total time × 100 — Lower = less risk — Percentage of time the strategy had open positions Main Row — Risk Metrics (Columns 15-22) Sharpe Ratio — (Return - Rf) / StdDev × sqrt(Periods) — >=3: Excellent, >=2: Good, >=1: Fair, <1: Poor — Measures risk-adjusted return using total volatility. Annualized using sqrt(252) for daily Sortino Ratio — (Return - Rf) / DownsideDev × sqrt(Periods) — >=2: Excellent, >=1: Good, <1: Needs improvement — Similar to Sharpe but only penalizes downside volatility. Can be higher than Sharpe Max DD — (Peak - Trough) / Peak × 100 — <5%: Excellent, 5-15%: Moderate, 15-30%: High, >30%: Severe — Largest peak-to-trough decline in equity. Critical for risk tolerance and position sizing RoR — Risk of Ruin probability — <1%: Excellent, 1-5%: Acceptable, 5-10%: Elevated, >10%: Dangerous — Probability of losing entire trading account based on win rate and payoff ratio R² — R-squared of equity curve vs. time — >=0.95: Excellent, 0.90-0.95: Good, 0.80-0.90: Moderate, <0.80: Erratic — Coefficient of determination measuring linearity of equity growth MAR — CAGR / |Max Drawdown| — Higher is better, negative = bad — Calmar Ratio. Reward relative to worst-case loss. Negative if max DD exceeds CAGR CVaR — Average of returns below VaR threshold — Lower absolute is better — Conditional Value at Risk (Expected Shortfall). Average loss in worst 5% of outcomes p-value — Binomial test probability — <0.05: Significant, 0.05-0.10: Marginal, >0.10: Likely random — Probability that observed results are due to chance. Low p-value means statistically significant edge Complementary Row — Extended Metrics Compounding — (Compounded Return / Total Return) × 100 — Percentage of total profit attributable to compounding (position sizing) Avg Win — Sum of wins / Win count — Average profitable trade return in percentage Avg Trade — Sum of all returns / Total trades — Same as Expectancy (Column 5). Displayed here for convenience Avg Loss — Sum of losses / Loss count — Average unprofitable trade return in percentage (negative value) Martin Ratio — CAGR / Ulcer Index — Similar to Calmar but uses Ulcer Index instead of Max DD Rolling Expectancy — Mean of rolling window expectancies — Average expectancy calculated across rolling windows. Shows consistency of edge Avg W Dur — Avg duration of winning trades — Average time from entry to exit for winning trades only Max Eq — Highest equity value reached — Peak equity achieved during backtest Min Eq — Lowest equity value reached — Trough equity point. Important for understanding worst-case absolute loss Buy & Hold — (Close_last / Close_first - 1) × 100 — >0%: Passive profit — Return of simply buying and holding the asset from backtest start to end Alpha — Strategy CAGR - Benchmark CAGR — >0: Has skill (beats benchmark) — Excess return above passive benchmark. Positive alpha indicates genuine value-added skill Beta — Covariance(Strategy, Benchmark) / Variance(Benchmark) — <1: Less volatile than market, >1: More volatile — Systematic risk correlation with benchmark Avg L Dur — Avg duration of losing trades — Average time from entry to exit for losing trades only Rolling Sharpe/Sortino — Dynamic based on win rate — >2: Good consistency — Rolling metric across sliding windows. Shows Sharpe if win rate >50%, Sortino if <=50% Curr DD — Current drawdown from peak — Lower is better — Present drawdown percentage. Zero means at new equity high DAR — CAGR adjusted for target DD — Higher is better — Drawdown-Adjusted Return. DAR^5 = CAGR if max DD = 5% Kurtosis — Fourth moment / StdDev^4 - 3 — ~0: Normal, >0: Fat tails, <0: Thin tails — Measures "tailedness" of return distribution (excess kurtosis) Skewness — Third moment / StdDev^3 — >0: Positive skew (big wins), <0: Negative skew (big losses) — Return distribution asymmetry VaR — 5th percentile of returns — Lower absolute is better — Value at Risk at 95% confidence. Maximum expected loss in worst 5% of outcomes Ulcer — sqrt(mean(drawdown^2)) — Lower is better — Ulcer Index - root mean square of drawdowns. Penalizes both depth AND duration ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ █ MONTE CARLO SIMULATION Purpose Monte Carlo simulation tests strategy robustness by randomizing the order of trades while keeping trade returns unchanged. This simulates alternative equity curves to assess outcome variability. Method Extract all historical trade returns Randomly shuffle the sequence (1000+ iterations) Calculate cumulative equity for each shuffle Build distribution of final outcomes Output The stress test table shows: Median Outcome: 50th percentile result 5th Percentile: Worst 5% of outcomes 95th Percentile: Best 95% of outcomes Success Rate: Percentage of simulations that were profitable Interpretation If 95% of simulations are profitable: Strategy is robust If median is far from actual result: High variance/unreliability If 5th percentile shows large loss: High tail risk ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ █ WALK-FORWARD ANALYSIS Purpose Walk-Forward Analysis (WFA) is the gold standard for detecting strategy overfitting. It simulates real-world trading by dividing historical data into rolling "training" (in-sample) and "validation" (out-of-sample) periods. A strategy that performs well on unseen data is more likely to succeed in live trading. Method The implementation uses a non-overlapping window approach following AmiBroker's gold standard methodology: Segment Calculation: Total trades divided into N windows (default: 12), IS = ~75%, OOS = ~25%, Step = OOS length Window Structure: Each window has IS (training) followed by OOS (validation). Each OOS becomes the next window's IS (rolling forward) Metrics Calculated: CAGR, Sharpe, Sortino, MaxDD, Win Rate, Expectancy, Profit Factor, Payoff Aggregation: IS metrics averaged across all IS periods, OOS metrics averaged across all OOS periods Output IS CAGR: In-sample annualized return OOS CAGR: Out-of-sample annualized return ( THE key metric ) IS/OOS Sharpe: In/out-of-sample risk-adjusted return Success Rate: % of OOS windows that were profitable Interpretation Robust: IS/OOS CAGR gap <20%, OOS Success Rate >80% Some Overfitting: CAGR gap 20-50%, Success Rate 50-80% Severe Overfitting: CAGR gap >50%, Success Rate <50% Key Principles: OOS is what matters — Only OOS predicts live performance Consistency > Magnitude — 10% IS / 9% OOS beats 30% IS / 5% OOS Window count — More windows = more reliable validation Non-overlapping OOS — Prevents data leakage ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ █ TABLE DISPLAY Main Table — Organized into three sections: Performance Metrics (Cols 0-6): Net Profit, Payoff, Sample Size, Profit Factor, CAGR, Expectancy, Monthly Trade Statistics (Cols 7-14): Avg Duration, Max CW, Max CL, Win, BE, Loss, Frequency, Exposure Risk Metrics (Cols 15-22): Sharpe, Sortino, Max DD, RoR, R², MAR, CVaR, p-value Color Coding 🟢 Green: Excellent performance 🟠 Orange: Acceptable performance ⚪ Gray: Neutral / Fair 🔴 Red: Poor performance ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ █ IMPLEMENTATION NOTES Data Source: All metrics calculated from strategy.closedtrades , ensuring compatibility with any Pine Script strategy Calculation Timing: All calculations occur on barstate.islastconfirmedhistory to optimize performance Limitations: Requires at least 1 closed trade for basic metrics, 30+ trades for reliable statistical analysis ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ █ QUICK NOTES ➙ This library has been developed and refined over two years of real-world strategy testing. Every calculation has been validated against industry-standard quantitative finance references. ➙ The entire codebase is thoroughly documented inline. If you are curious about how a metric is calculated or want to understand the implementation details, dive into the source code -- it is written to be read and learned from. ➙ This description focuses on usage and concepts rather than exhaustively listing every exported type and function. The library source code is thoroughly documented inline -- explore it to understand implementation details and internal logic. ➙ All calculations execute on barstate.islastconfirmedhistory to minimize runtime overhead. The library is designed for efficiency without sacrificing accuracy. ➙ Beyond analysis, this library serves as a learning resource. Study the source code to understand quantitative finance concepts, Pine Script advanced techniques, and proper statistical methodology. ➙ Metrics are their own not binary good/bad indicators. A high Sharpe ratio with low sample size is misleading. A deep drawdown during a market crash may be acceptable. Study each function and metric individually -- evaluate your strategy contextually, not by threshold alone. ➙ All strategies face alpha decay over time. Instead of over-optimizing a single strategy on one timeframe and market, build a diversified portfolio across multiple markets and timeframes. Deeptest helps you validate each component so you can combine robust strategies into a trading portfolio. ➙ Screenshots shown in the documentation are solely for visual representation to demonstrate how the tables and metrics will be displayed. Please do not compare your strategy's performance with the metrics shown in these screenshots -- they are illustrative examples only, not performance targets or benchmarks. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ █ HOW-TO Using Deeptest is intentionally straightforward. Just import the library and call DT.runDeeptest() at the end of your strategy code in main scope. . //@version=6 strategy("My Strategy", overlay=true) // Import the library import Fractalyst/Deeptest/1 as DT // Your strategy logic fastMA = ta.sma(close, 10) slowMA = ta.sma(close, 30) if ta.crossover(fastMA, slowMA) strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long) if ta.crossunder(fastMA, slowMA) strategy.close("Long") // Run the analysis DT.runDeeptest() And yes... it's compatible with any TradingView Strategy! 🪄 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ █ CREDITS Author: @Fractalyst Font Library: by @fikira - @kaigouthro - @Duyck Community: Inspired by the @PineCoders community initiative, encouraging developers to contribute open-source libraries and continuously enhance the Pine Script ecosystem for all traders. if you find Deeptest valuable in your trading journey, feel free to use it in your strategies and give a shoutout to @Fractalyst -- Your recognition directly supports ongoing development and open-source contributions to Pine Script. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ █ DISCLAIMER This library is provided for educational and research purposes. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always test thoroughly and use proper risk management. The author is not responsible for any trading losses incurred through the use of this code.
Pine Script® library
by Fractalyst
20
FX Rate Bias US vs EU 2YFX Rate Bias – US vs EU (2Y) This indicator provides a macro bias framework for FX markets by tracking the 2-year government bond yield differential between the United States and Germany. Rather than displaying the spread as a raw calculation, the script translates interest-rate expectations into a clear directional bias, helping traders understand which currency currently holds a rate advantage. The 2Y segment of the yield curve is highly sensitive to: Central bank expectations Forward guidance Shifts in short-term monetary policy outlook How to use Positive spread → USD rate advantage Negative spread → EUR rate advantage Designed to be used as a contextual macro tool, this indicator helps align technical setups with broader monetary conditions. It is not intended as a standalone entry or signal generator.
Pine Script® indicator
by emiurz
MADZ - Moving Average Deviation Z-ScoreMADZ - Moving Average Deviation Z-Score MADZ is a powerful valuation oscillator that measures how far the current price has deviated from a user-selected moving average, expressed in statistical terms as a Z-Score. This normalization makes it easier to identify overvalued and undervalued conditions across different assets, timeframes, and market environments. Overview The indicator works by: Calculating the percentage deviation of price from a customizable moving average (SMA, EMA, WMA, VWMA, HMA, or RMA). Applying a Z-Score transformation to this deviation over a chosen lookback period — showing how many standard deviations the current deviation is from its historical average. Smoothing the result for a clean, responsive oscillator centered around zero. Positive values indicate price is trading above the moving average (potentially overvalued), while negative values suggest price is below (potentially undervalued). The further from zero, the greater the relative valuation extreme. Key Features Customizable base moving average (type and length) Z-Score normalization for statistically meaningful readings Final smoothing for reduced noise Static overbought/oversold levels (default ±1.5) — line changes color when crossed (red above, green below) Dynamic extreme bands (±3σ) — optional display of bands calculated from the oscillator’s own volatility over a user-defined period Extreme zone highlighting — background shading activates only during truly rare valuation events Extreme Zone Highlighting Explained The highlighted extreme zones (background shading) are not based on the fixed static levels. Instead, they signal statistically significant outliers using dynamic bands: Overbought extreme zone (red background): Triggered when MADZ rises above the upper dynamic band (+3 standard deviations of the MADZ line itself over the dynamic length period). Oversold extreme zone (green background): Triggered when MADZ falls below the lower dynamic band (-3 standard deviations). These ±3σ bands adapt to the recent behavior of the oscillator. Because they represent three standard deviations from the mean of MADZ, crossings are rare and often precede major reversals or trend accelerations — making them valuable for spotting potential turning points in valuation extremes. How to Use Use zero-line crosses for trend changes or mean-reversion setups. Watch static level crossings (±1.5 default) for early overbought/oversold warnings. Pay special attention to extreme zone shading — these highlight high-conviction valuation dislocations that may offer superior risk/reward opportunities. Designed on the BTC chart, but can be used on other assets. Settings Moving Average Settings: Type, length, source Z-Score & Smoothing: Lookback period and smoothing length Threshold Levels: Static overbought/oversold thresholds Display Options: Toggle dynamic bands and extreme background highlighting This is an educational tool designed to aid in valuation analysis. The information provided is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider multiple factors before making trading decisions. Trade at your own risk.
Pine Script® indicator
by MiesOnCharts
Institutional Intermarket Score PRO V3.3 (Presets)This indicator is built on an unusual, non-traditional intermarket concept and is designed to provide market context rather than trading signals. Institutional Intermarket Score – Indicator Description Overview The Institutional Intermarket Score is a contextual market indicator designed to provide a macro and intermarket perspective on the current market environment. It aggregates information from multiple user-selected correlated and inversely correlated assets to determine whether the broader market context favors risk-on, risk-off, or neutral conditions. This indicator is not a buy or sell signal. It does not attempt to predict short-term price movements, entries, or exits. Its sole purpose is to help the trader understand the broader market context before making any trading decisions. Core Concept Markets do not move in isolation. Institutional participants continuously monitor multiple related markets to assess risk, liquidity, and conviction before deploying capital. This indicator replicates that process by: Monitoring several correlated assets (assets that tend to move in the same direction) Monitoring several inversely correlated assets (assets that typically move in the opposite direction) Combining their behavior into a single, normalized intermarket score The result is a context filter, not a trading system. Asset Groups The indicator supports up to: 5 correlated assets 5 inversely correlated assets All assets are fully configurable by the user and can be enabled or disabled individually. Only active assets are included in all calculations. Market State Evaluation Each asset is evaluated using a Price vs VWAP relationship: Price above VWAP → bullish state Price below VWAP → bearish state This binary state is used consistently across all assets to maintain clarity and robustness. Intermarket Score ---------------------- The Intermarket Score represents the average directional alignment of all active assets and is normalized between -1 and +1. Positive values indicate a risk-on environment Negative values indicate a risk-off environment Values near zero indicate balance, rotation, or uncertainty The score is smoothed to reduce noise and highlight regime persistence rather than short-term fluctuations. Confirmation Metric (X / Y) ---------------------------------- In addition to the score, the indicator calculates a confirmation ratio: Y = total number of active assets X = number of assets aligned with the current regime Alignment is evaluated relative to the current regime: In bullish regimes, assets above VWAP confirm In bearish regimes, assets below VWAP confirm This metric reflects the quality and conviction of the intermarket consensus. High confirmation indicates broad agreement across markets. Low confirmation indicates divergence, uncertainty, or fragile conditions. Heatmap ----------- A compact heatmap visually displays the state of each individual asset: Green indicates alignment with the regime Red indicates opposition Neutral indicates inactive assets This allows immediate identification of: Which markets are confirming Which markets are diverging Whether consensus is broad or fragmented Intended Use ---------------- This indicator is designed to be used: Before evaluating trade setups As a filter, not a trigger In combination with price action, structure, and risk management Typical applications include: Avoiding trades against the broader market context Distinguishing strong trends from fragile moves Identifying periods of institutional alignment or hesitation What This Indicator Is Not It is not a buy or sell indicator It does not provide entry or exit signals It does not predict price direction on its own It does not guarantee profitable trades Any trading decisions remain entirely the responsibility of the user. Summary The Institutional Intermarket Score provides a high-level market image based on assets selected by the user. It reflects context, alignment, and conviction, not timing. Used correctly, it helps traders avoid low-quality trades, understand when markets are aligned or fragmented, and make decisions with greater awareness of the broader environment. It is a decision support tool, not a trading system. This indicator, is still evolving and its structure will continue to develop as new insights are tested...
Pine Script® indicator
by ueuito
NY Opening Range [LuckyAlgo] This custom ORM (Opening Range Move) indicator is designed as a tool for traders who focus not just on where a range is, but on the magnitude of the expansion following the initial morning volatility. Here is a summary of the indicator and how it differentiates itself from standard Opening Range Breakout (ORB) tools. Indicator Summary The script captures the high and low of the market during the first 30 minutes of the NY session (09:30–10:00 AM EST). Once this range is set, it tracks the "Expansion Move" - the point distance from the range's boundary to the current session's high or low. It visualizes this through color-coded zones, dynamic labels at the session extremes, and a statistical table that benchmarks today's volatility against the recent past. What specific questions does this indicator answer? While most indicators tell you "the range is broken," this indicator answers quantitative questions vital for trade management: 1. "How far has the market stretched relative to the breakout?" The indicator provides the exact point distance (+/-) from the range high/low. This helps you determine if the move is just beginning or if it has already extended significantly. 2. "Is the current move 'normal' or an outlier?" By using the Stats Table, you can see if the current 40-point move on NQ is typical or if the average move over the last 10 days is actually 80 points. This prevents you from "fading" a move that still has average room to grow, or taking a "pro-trend" trade when the market is already exhausted. 3. "Where is the session extreme located?" The inclusion of the dashed High of Day (HOD) and Low of Day (LOD) lines with attached labels tells you exactly where the "Move" calculation is peaking. If the HOD line hasn't moved for two hours, you know the bullish expansion has stalled. 4. "When is the data no longer relevant?" Because of the 17:00 EST reset logic, the indicator answers the "end of day" question for futures traders. It stops measuring at the settlement/close of the electronic session, ensuring your charts are clean for the overnight (Globex) session or ready for the next morning. Technical Advantage Most scripts use a single "point in time" to reset. This script uses a Trading Window logic, which is much more robust. If a bar is missing at exactly 17:00 due to low volume or a data glitch, the indicator won't "break" or keep drawing old lines - it understands the entire window of time it is allowed to exist in. Credit to @LuxAlgo for his initial Opening Range Breakout indicator used as a base to develop this version.
Pine Script® indicator
by LuckyAlgo
Bloomberg Mega Board [v2.5 Fixed]Transform your TradingView chart into a professional-grade command center. Designed for traders who need high-level market awareness without switching tabs, this dashboard provides deep, multi-timeframe analysis across US Sectors, Commodities, Currencies, and Crypto. Key Features 1. Multi-Asset Paging System Pine Script has a limit of 40 security calls, which usually limits how much data you can see. This script bypasses that limitation using a smart Paging System: Sectors Page: Tracks the top 10 US Sectors (SPY, XLK, XLF, etc.) & Indices. Commodities Page: Gold, Silver, Oil, Gas, Copper, Corn, etc. Currencies Page: Major Forex pairs including DXY, EURUSD, USDJPY. Crypto Page: Top 10 Cryptocurrencies by volume. Switch pages instantly via the Settings menu. 2. Smart "News" Headlines Since Pine Script cannot access the live internet for news, this script uses an Algorithmic Headline Generator. It analyzes price action and trend alignment to generate a "Market Status" summary: Full Bull Trend: Intraday + Daily + Weekly trends are all positive. Strong Rally: Asset is up significantly (>1.25%) on the day. Heavy Sell-off: Asset is down significantly (<-1.25%) on the day. Pullback (Buy?): Daily trend is UP, but Intraday is DOWN (potential entry). Consolidating: Market is chopping sideways. 3. Timeframe Trend Matrix Monitor momentum across the curve with a single glance. The "Trend" columns are powered by the 5 EMA (Exponential Moving Average): Intraday: Adapts to your current chart timeframe (e.g., switch your chart to 15m to see the 15m trend). Daily / Weekly / Monthly: These are hard coded to always show the higher timeframe trend, regardless of what chart you are looking at. Trend is determined by price in relation to it's 5 EMA. 4. "Terminal" Aesthetic Styled with a dark, high-contrast Bloomberg Terminal look. Uses Amber tickers and Neon status blocks for rapid visual scanning. Optimized for Full Screen Mode: Hide your main chart candles to turn your monitor into a dedicated data dashboard. How to Use Add the indicator to your chart and move it to "New Lower Indicator" Then repeat 4 times for each dashboard. Open Settings (the gear icon) and find "Select Page". Choose your desired market view (e.g., Sectors, Crypto, Currencies, Commodities) Optional: To replicate the full dashboard look, go to your Chart Settings -> Symbol -> Uncheck "Body" and "Borders" to hide the candles behind the table. 2 hours ago Release Notes Transform your TradingView chart into a professional-grade command center. Designed for traders who need high-level market awareness without switching tabs, this dashboard provides deep, multi-timeframe analysis across US Sectors, Commodities, Currencies, and Crypto. Key Features 1. Multi-Asset Paging System Pine Script has a limit of 40 security calls, which usually limits how much data you can see. This script bypasses that limitation using a smart Paging System: Sectors Page: Tracks the top 10 US Sectors (SPY, XLK, XLF, etc.) & Indices. Commodities Page: Gold, Silver, Oil, Gas, Copper, Corn, etc. Currencies Page: Major Forex pairs including DXY, EURUSD, USDJPY. Crypto Page: Top 10 Cryptocurrencies by volume. Switch pages instantly via the Settings menu. 2. Smart "News" Headlines Since Pine Script cannot access the live internet for news, this script uses an Algorithmic Headline Generator. It analyzes price action and trend alignment to generate a "Market Status" summary: Full Bull Trend: Intraday + Daily + Weekly trends are all positive. Strong Rally: Asset is up significantly (>1.25%) on the day. Heavy Sell-off: Asset is down significantly (<-1.25%) on the day. Pullback (Buy?): Daily trend is UP, but Intraday is DOWN (potential entry). Consolidating: Market is chopping sideways. 3. Timeframe Trend Matrix Monitor momentum across the curve with a single glance. The "Trend" columns are powered by the 5 EMA (Exponential Moving Average): Intraday: Adapts to your current chart timeframe (e.g., switch your chart to 15m to see the 15m trend). Daily / Weekly / Monthly: These are hard coded to always show the higher timeframe trend, regardless of what chart you are looking at. Trend is determined by price in relation to it's 5 EMA. 4. "Terminal" Aesthetic Styled with a dark, high-contrast Bloomberg Terminal look. Uses Amber tickers and Neon status blocks for rapid visual scanning. Optimized for Full Screen Mode: Hide your main chart candles to turn your monitor into a dedicated data dashboard. How to Use Add the indicator to your chart and move it to "New Lower Indicator" Then repeat 4 times for each dashboard. Open Settings (the gear icon) and find "Select Page". Choose your desired market view (e.g., Sectors, Crypto, Currencies, Commodities) Optional: To replicate the full dashboard look, go to your Chart Settings -> Symbol -> Uncheck "Body" and "Borders" to hide the candles behind the table. 2 hours ago Release Notes Transform your TradingView chart into a professional-grade command center. Designed for traders who need high-level market awareness without switching tabs, this dashboard provides deep, multi-timeframe analysis across US Sectors, Commodities, Currencies, and Crypto. Key Features 1. Multi-Asset Paging System Pine Script has a limit of 40 security calls, which usually limits how much data you can see. This script bypasses that limitation using a smart Paging System: Sectors Page: Tracks the top 10 US Sectors (SPY, XLK, XLF, etc.) & Indices. Commodities Page: Gold, Silver, Oil, Gas, Copper, Corn, etc. Currencies Page: Major Forex pairs including DXY, EURUSD, USDJPY. Crypto Page: Top 10 Cryptocurrencies by volume. Switch pages instantly via the Settings menu. 2. Smart "News" Headlines Since Pine Script cannot access the live internet for news, this script uses an Algorithmic Headline Generator. It analyzes price action and trend alignment to generate a "Market Status" summary: Full Bull Trend: Intraday + Daily + Weekly trends are all positive. Strong Rally: Asset is up significantly (>1.25%) on the day. Heavy Sell-off: Asset is down significantly (<-1.25%) on the day. Pullback (Buy?): Daily trend is UP, but Intraday is DOWN (potential entry). Consolidating: Market is chopping sideways. 3. Timeframe Trend Matrix Monitor momentum across the curve with a single glance. The "Trend" columns are powered by the 5 EMA (Exponential Moving Average): Intraday: Adapts to your current chart timeframe (e.g., switch your chart to 15m to see the 15m trend). Daily / Weekly / Monthly: These are hard coded to always show the higher timeframe trend, regardless of what chart you are looking at. Trend is determined by price in relation to it's 5 EMA. 4. "Terminal" Aesthetic Styled with a dark, high-contrast Bloomberg Terminal look. Uses Amber tickers and Neon status blocks for rapid visual scanning. Optimized for Full Screen Mode: Hide your main chart candles to turn your monitor into a dedicated data dashboard. How to Use Add the indicator to your chart and move it to "New Lower Indicator" Then repeat 4 times for each dashboard. Open Settings (the gear icon) and find "Select Page". Choose your desired market view (e.g., Sectors, Crypto, Currencies, Commodities) Optional: To replicate the full dashboard look, go to your Chart Settings -> Symbol -> Uncheck "Body" and "Borders" to hide the candles behind the table. 2 hours ago Release Notes Transform your TradingView chart into a professional-grade command center. Designed for traders who need high-level market awareness without switching tabs, this dashboard provides deep, multi-timeframe analysis across US Sectors, Commodities, Currencies, and Crypto. Key Features 1. Multi-Asset Paging System Pine Script has a limit of 40 security calls, which usually limits how much data you can see. This script bypasses that limitation using a smart Paging System: Sectors Page: Tracks the top 10 US Sectors (SPY, XLK, XLF, etc.) & Indices. Commodities Page: Gold, Silver, Oil, Gas, Copper, Corn, etc. Currencies Page: Major Forex pairs including DXY, EURUSD, USDJPY. Crypto Page: Top 10 Cryptocurrencies by volume. Switch pages instantly via the Settings menu. 2. Smart "News" Headlines Since Pine Script cannot access the live internet for news, this script uses an Algorithmic Headline Generator. It analyzes price action and trend alignment to generate a "Market Status" summary: Full Bull Trend: Intraday + Daily + Weekly trends are all positive. Strong Rally: Asset is up significantly (>1.25%) on the day. Heavy Sell-off: Asset is down significantly (<-1.25%) on the day. Pullback (Buy?): Daily trend is UP, but Intraday is DOWN (potential entry). Consolidating: Market is chopping sideways. 3. Timeframe Trend Matrix Monitor momentum across the curve with a single glance. The "Trend" columns are powered by the 5 EMA (Exponential Moving Average): Intraday: Adapts to your current chart timeframe (e.g., switch your chart to 15m to see the 15m trend). Daily / Weekly / Monthly: These are hard coded to always show the higher timeframe trend, regardless of what chart you are looking at. Trend is determined by price in relation to it's 5 EMA. 4. "Terminal" Aesthetic Styled with a dark, high-contrast Bloomberg Terminal look. Uses Amber tickers and Neon status blocks for rapid visual scanning. Optimized for Full Screen Mode: Hide your main chart candles to turn your monitor into a dedicated data dashboard. How to Use Add the indicator to your chart and move it to "New Lower Indicator" Then repeat 4 times for each dashboard. Open Settings (the gear icon) and find "Select Page". Choose your desired market view (e.g., Sectors, Crypto, Currencies, Commodities) Optional: To replicate the full dashboard look, go to your Chart Settings -> Symbol -> Uncheck "Body" and "Borders" to hide the candles behind the table.
Pine Script® indicator
by CustomQuantLabs
1
Smart Money Confluence Heatmap [PhenLabs]📊 Smart Money Confluence Heatmap Version: Pine Script™ v6 📌 Description The Smart Money Confluence Heatmap is a professional‑grade Smart Money Concepts indicator designed to identify high‑probability institutional trading zones. It merges multiple advanced market factors into a single confluence score, allowing traders to focus only on areas that matter. By synthesizing Fair Value Gaps, Order Blocks, Liquidity Sweeps, Volume Strength, and Market Structure, this script removes subjective bias and replaces it with data‑driven confirmation. 🚀 Points of Innovation Unified confluence scoring system combining five institutional concepts Adaptive ATR‑based zone sizing for volatility‑adjusted precision Automatic trend and structure alignment scoring Volume‑validated Order Blocks and Liquidity Sweeps Probability‑ranked zones instead of static levels 🔧 Core Components Fair Value Gap detection with imbalance strength scoring Order Block identification confirmed by displacement and volume Liquidity sweep analysis using wick depth and volume expansion Volume strength modeling for accumulation and distribution phases Market structure confirmation using BOS and directional bias 🔥 Key Features Confluence heatmap zones graded by bullish and bearish probability Minimum score filtering to remove low‑quality setups Automatic risk‑to‑reward based TP and SL projections Entry alerts when price taps validated institutional zones 🎨 Visualization Color‑graded heatmap zones representing probability strength Percentage score labels with component icons On‑chart dashboard displaying market bias and structure state ✅ Best Use Cases Liquidity sweep reversals at key structure levels Trend‑aligned pullbacks into institutional zones Intraday and swing trading using confluence confirmation ⚠️ Limitations Not designed for low‑liquidity or extremely ranging markets Confluence does not guarantee outcomes and requires risk management 💡 What Makes This Unique Objective probability scoring instead of subjective SMC interpretation Multi‑layer institutional confirmation in a single indicator Built for traders who demand clarity, not chart clutter 💡 Note: This indicator is for educational purposes only and should always be used alongside proper risk management and higher‑timeframe context.
Pine Script® indicator
by PhenLabs
2
Seasonal Strategies V1Seasonal Strategies V1 is a rule-based futures seasonality framework built around predefined calendar windows per asset. The strategy automatically detects the current symbol and activates long or short trading phases strictly based on historically observed seasonal tendencies. All entries and exits are fully time-based — no indicators, no predictions, no discretionary input. Key Features Asset-specific seasonal windows (MMDD-based) Automatic long and short activation Fully time-based entries and exits One position at a time (no pyramiding) Clean chart visualization using subtle background shading No indicators, no filters, no curve fitting Philosophy: This strategy is designed as a structural trading tool, not a forecasting model. It focuses on when a market historically shows seasonal tendencies — not why or how far price might move. Seasonal Strategies V1 intentionally keeps the chart clean and minimal, making it suitable as a baseline framework for research, portfolio-style seasonal approaches, or further extensions in later versions. Intended Use: Futures and commodity markets Seasonality research and testing Systematic, calendar-driven strategies Educational and analytical purposes Disclaimer This script is provided for educational and research purposes only. Past seasonal tendencies do not guarantee future performance. Risk management, position sizing, and portfolio decisions are the responsibility of the user.
Pine Script® strategy
by DerAndi72
Uptrick: Price Memory TrendIntroduction Uptrick: Price Memory Trend is a custom indicator designed to detect directional shifts and volatility changes using a non-traditional price memory approach. Unlike moving average systems, it builds a dynamic memory of price that adapts gradually over time, allowing it to detect significant deviations and trend transitions with reduced noise. Overview This script identifies trend changes by comparing the current price to a memory-based baseline. When price deviates significantly from this memory base, it triggers a trend regime shift—either bullish or bearish. Adaptive deviation bands are calculated using absolute deviation from the memory base, not ATR or standard deviation, which allows the indicator to capture volatility uniquely. Visual components include color-coded candles, labeled signals, optional bands, and a live status table summarizing current trend metrics. Originality The indicator’s core innovation lies in its use of a decaying memory function to track trend direction, replacing moving averages with a price memory that responds only to significant deviations. This method avoids lag typically associated with smoothing techniques, enabling timely trend detection. Furthermore, deviation is measured directly in price terms, rather than through volatility surrogates like ATR or Bollinger Bands, resulting in a more raw and responsive depiction of price behavior. Inputs Core Engine Memory Strength: Sets how strongly the memory responds to price changes. Higher values make the memory base more reactive. Memory Decay: Controls how much past memory is retained. Lower values weight new prices more heavily. Deviation Length: Length of the EMA used to smooth absolute price deviation. A longer setting results in smoother bands. Band Multiplier: Expands or contracts the dynamic bands. Higher values widen the bands, reducing sensitivity. Customization Color Palette: Selects one of six predefined color schemes for bull and bear visuals. Show Bands: Enables or disables the display of deviation bands. Look: Chooses between 'Bands', 'Trail', or 'Intense' styles, affecting how bands and fills are drawn. Bands Trail Intense Show Info Table: Toggles display of the real-time trend and volatility status panel. Table Position: Determines which corner of the chart the info panel appears in. Text Size: Adjusts font size used within the info table. Features Trend Detection Bullish Shift: Triggered when price crosses above the upper band, entering a new bullish regime. Bearish Shift: Triggered when price crosses below the lower band, entering a new bearish regime. Trend state is persistent and updated only on confirmed transitions, avoiding repeated entries in the same direction. Candle Coloring Candles are dynamically recolored based on current trend direction: bull, bear, or neutral. Signal Labels Visual labels marked "Up" or "Down" are placed on the chart when a regime shift occurs, helping to mark turning points. Deviation Bands Dynamic upper and lower bands are drawn based on smoothed absolute deviation from the memory base. Additional outer bands based on ATR may be drawn to highlight zone intensity when the 'Intense' or 'Trail' styles are selected. Bands visually indicate overextension and help frame price context relative to memory. Alerts Built-in alert conditions trigger on bullish or bearish trend shifts, useful for automation or notifications. Info Table The optional info table displays: Current trend direction Band state (calm, hot, or cool) Price stretch from base Trend age in bars Confidence level based on deviation Memory slope and acceleration Band width and compression state Reversion risk based on stretch level Info Table: Trade Example: Logic Price Memory A recursive formula updates a memory variable based on the current price. The memory adjusts only when the price deviates meaningfully from its previous value. The formula uses a combination of delta-weighting and exponential decay: > memory := previous_memory + delta × memory_strength > memory := memory × memory_decay + price × (1 - memory_decay) This produces a smooth, adaptive base that responds gradually to directional price moves. Deviation and Bands Absolute deviation between price and the memory base is calculated and smoothed using an EMA. The upper and lower bands are then calculated as: > Upper Band = memory base + (smoothed deviation × band multiplier) > Lower Band = memory base - (smoothed deviation × band multiplier) ATR-based extensions can optionally be drawn around these bands for added visual structure. Trend Logic Bullish and bearish states are tracked using crossovers and crossunders of price against the upper and lower bands. The indicator maintains a persistent trend state variable that updates only when a confirmed regime change occurs. This prevents multiple signals within the same trend direction (non-pyramiding behavior). Stretch and Band Analysis Stretch is measured as the deviation of price from memory, normalized by smoothed deviation. Band width is tracked over time and used to detect compression or expansion. Band position is calculated to identify where price sits between the upper and lower bands. Info Table Metrics Memory Slope and Acceleration: Show first and second derivative of the memory base to capture trend speed and change. Confidence Level: Based on stretch intensity, indicating trend strength. Reversion Risk: Inferred from how extended price is beyond the band. Compression: Evaluated by comparing current band width to its recent average. Summary Uptrick: Price Memory Trend provides an alternative framework for trend identification by replacing traditional smoothing with adaptive memory logic. It measures price deviation without reliance on ATR or standard deviation, instead focusing on distance from a reactive baseline. With regime-based trend tracking, customizable visuals, and a detailed status table, it supports both discretionary and system-driven trading styles. Disclaimer This script is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not provide financial advice or guarantees. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always perform your own research before making trading decisions.
Pine Script® indicator
by Uptrick
17
4H Candle Curves4H Candle Curves - Detailed User Guide OVERVIEW This indicator reveals curve vs continuation behavior in NQ Futures by analyzing how price responds after breaking the first-hour range. Based on 10+ years of statistical analysis (2013-2025, 3,136+ trading days), it identifies which 4-hour sessions exhibit mean reversion (curve) behavior versus trend continuation when Q2 (second hour) breaks Q1 (first hour) extremes. ⚠️ IMPORTANT: This indicator is specifically designed for NQ FUTURES ONLY. All curve probabilities and statistics were derived from a decade-long dataset of NQ 1-minute bars. Using this on other instruments will produce inaccurate results. CORE CONCEPT: THE CURVE What is a "Curve"? A curve occurs when price breaks out of the first hour's range in Q2 (hour 2), but then reverses direction in the second half (Q3+Q4) to make a new extreme on the opposite side. Curve Example (Upside Break → Downside Reversal): Q1 (Hour 1): Price establishes range 25,000 - 25,050 Q2 (Hour 2): Price breaks ABOVE Q1 high, reaches 25,100 Q3+Q4 (Hours 3-4): Price curves back down, makes new LOW below 25,000 Result: Q2 broke high, but second half curved back to make new low below Q1 = CURVE What is "Continuation"? Continuation occurs when Q2 breaks Q1 range and the second half extends further in the same direction. Continuation Example (Upside Break → Further Upside): Q1 (Hour 1): Price establishes range 25,000 - 25,050 Q2 (Hour 2): Price breaks ABOVE Q1 high, reaches 25,100 Q3+Q4 (Hours 3-4): Price continues higher, makes new HIGH above 25,100 Result: Q2 broke high, second half made new high above Q2 = CONTINUATION THE CRITICAL DISCOVERY: 6AM IS THE CURVE SESSION Curve Probabilities by Session: When Q2 Breaks Q1 HIGH: 6AM: 60.6% curve (new low below Q1) | 38.5% continuation 2AM: 38.4% curve | 46.7% continuation (balanced) 10AM: 17.2% curve | 60.4% continuation ← STRONG continuation bias 6PM: 29.6% curve | 59.0% continuation 10PM: 27.5% curve | 55.1% continuation When Q2 Breaks Q1 LOW: 6AM: 64.4% curve (new high above Q1) | 35.0% continuation ← HIGHEST curve 2AM: 42.8% curve | 43.3% continuation (balanced) 10AM: 16.7% curve | 51.6% continuation ← STRONG continuation bias 6PM: 33.7% curve | 51.1% continuation 10PM: 33.1% curve | 48.6% continuation Key Insight: 6AM is THE ONLY SESSION with >60% curve probability in both directions. This makes it a uniquely exploitable mean reversion session. When Q2 breaks Q1 range during 6AM, expect the second half to curve back 60-64% of the time. 10AM shows the opposite: Strong continuation bias (60% when Q2 breaks high, 52% when Q2 breaks low). 10AM breakouts tend to follow through. HOW IT WORKS: THE QUARTER SYSTEM The Six 4-Hour Candles (EST): Each trading day (6pm-5pm) is divided into six 4-hour periods: 6PM (18:00-22:00) - Evening/Globex open | Blue box 10PM (22:00-02:00) - Asia session | Purple box 2AM (02:00-06:00) - Early London | Orange box 6AM (06:00-10:00) - Late London + NY Open | Green box ← THE CURVE SESSION 10AM (10:00-14:00) - NY Morning | Red box ← THE CONTINUATION SESSION 2PM (14:00-17:00) - NY Afternoon | Yellow box (3 hours only) The Four Quarters: Each 4-hour candle (except 2PM) is divided into four 1-hour quarters: Q1 (Hour 1, minutes 0-60): Establishes initial range Q2 (Hour 2, minutes 60-120): Tests Q1 range - breaks or holds? Q3 (Hour 3, minutes 120-180): Second half begins Q4 (Hour 4, minutes 180-240): Second half completes 2PM candle only has 3 hours (14:00-17:00), so quarters are adjusted accordingly. The Three-Step Analysis: STEP 1: Q1 Establishes Range The first hour sets the high and low for the session. This becomes the reference range. STEP 2: Q2 Break Detection The indicator monitors whether Q2 (hour 2) breaks above Q1 high or below Q1 low. STEP 3: Second Half Response Once Q2 breaks Q1 range, the indicator tracks what happens in Q3+Q4: Does price CURVE back to make new extreme on opposite side? Does price CONTINUE to make new extreme in same direction? Or does price stay within the established range? VISUAL ELEMENTS EXPLAINED 1. 4-Hour Candle Boxes Colored boxes display the high-to-low range of each 4H candle: Blue = 6PM (evening session start) Purple = 10PM (Asia session) Orange = 2AM (early London) Green = 6AM ← THE CURVE SESSION (watch for mean reversion) Red = 10AM ← THE CONTINUATION SESSION (trend follow-through) Yellow = 2PM (afternoon close, 3 hours only) 2. Quarter Separator Lines Vertical dotted lines mark the boundaries between quarters (1H, 2H, 3H marks). This helps you see: When Q1 ends (after 1 hour) When Q2 ends / second half begins (after 2 hours) When Q3 ends (after 3 hours) 3. Candle Name Labels At the 2-hour mark (Q2/Q3 boundary), a label shows: Candle name (e.g., "6am") Directional indicator: 🔼 = Q2 broke Q1 HIGH 🔽 = Q2 broke Q1 LOW ⚠️ = Q2 broke BOTH Q1 high and low (extended range) No symbol = Q2 stayed within Q1 range THE LIVE STATUS TABLE Located in your chosen corner (default: bottom-right), this table shows real-time analysis of the current 4H candle. Header Row: "LIVE: CANDLE" - Shows which 4H session you're currently in Quarter Row: "Quarter: Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 (Hour X)" - Shows which quarter you're currently forming STATUS Section: The status updates dynamically based on what has happened: During Q1-Q2 (First Half): "⏳ Q1 Building..." - First hour forming, range being established "⏳ Q2 Building..." - Second hour in progress, Q2 within Q1 range so far "🔼 Q2 Broke Q1 HIGH" - Q2 has broken above Q1 high "🔽 Q2 Broke Q1 LOW" - Q2 has broken below Q1 low "⚠️ Q2 Broke BOTH Q1 Extremes" - Q2 extended range in both directions During Q3-Q4 (Second Half): "✓ CURVE CONFIRMED" - Q2 broke one direction, second half reversed to opposite side "✓ CONTINUATION CONFIRMED" - Q2 broke one direction, second half extended further same direction "⏳ 2nd Half In Progress" - Q2 broke Q1, waiting to see if curve or continuation "📊 No Q2 Break Occurred" - Q2 stayed within Q1 range (no curve/continuation setup) EXPECTATION Section: Shows the probabilities based on the current state: When Q2 breaks Q1 high in 6AM: EXPECT 2nd half: CURVE (low < Q1): 60.6% CONT (high > Q2): 38.5% This tells you there's a 60.6% chance the second half will curve back to make a new low below Q1, versus 38.5% chance it continues higher above Q2. When curve/continuation is confirmed: Q2 broke high → 2nd half made new LOW below Q1 Curve: 60.6% Shows what actually happened and the historical probability. Color Coding: Purple background = Curve confirmed (mean reversion occurred) Green background = Continuation confirmed (upside extension) Red background = Continuation confirmed (downside extension) Blue background = Second half in progress, watching Yellow background = No Q2 break (no setup) Gray background = Still in first half, building THE CURVE REFERENCE TABLE Located in your chosen corner (default: bottom-left), this table provides a quick reference for all sessions. Table Structure: TOP SECTION: "When Q2 BREAKS Q1 HIGH" BOTTOM SECTION: "When Q2 BREAKS Q1 LOW" How to Read: "Curve" column = % of time second half makes new extreme on OPPOSITE side "Cont" column = % of time second half makes new extreme in SAME direction "Winner" column = Which behavior is more likely Purple highlight = Curve is the winner (higher %) Blue highlight = Continuation is the winner 🔥 symbol = Strong edge (>60%) Quick Reference Usage: You're in 10AM session, Q2 just broke Q1 high. Look at top section, 10AM row: Curve: 17.2% Cont: 60.4% Winner: CONT Interpretation: 10AM breakouts tend to follow through. Only 17% chance of curving back. Trade with the break, not against it. PRACTICAL TRADING EXAMPLES Example 1: Perfect 6AM Curve Setup Scenario: 6AM candle in progress 7:00 AM: Q1 ends, range is 18,000 - 18,050 7:30 AM: Price breaks above 18,050, reaches 18,075 (Q2 broke Q1 high) Live table shows: "🔼 Q2 Broke Q1 HIGH" Expectation: "CURVE (low < Q1): 60.6%" Trading Decision: Even though price broke to new highs, the 60.6% curve probability suggests looking for short opportunities expecting price to curve back below 18,000 in Q3-Q4. Typical Outcome: 8:15 AM (Q3): Price starts declining 9:15 AM (Q4): Price makes new low at 17,990 Result: ✓ CURVE CONFIRMED Example 2: 10AM Continuation Signal Scenario: 10AM candle in progress 11:00 AM: Q1 ends, range is 18,100 - 18,150 11:45 AM: Price breaks above 18,150, reaches 18,180 (Q2 broke Q1 high) Live table shows: "🔼 Q2 Broke Q1 HIGH" Expectation: "CONT (high > Q2): 60.4%" Trading Decision: With 60.4% continuation probability, breakout likely to follow through. Look for long opportunities expecting extension above 18,180 in Q3-Q4. Typical Outcome: 12:30 PM (Q3): Price continues higher to 18,200 1:15 PM (Q4): Price makes new high at 18,225 Result: ✓ CONTINUATION CONFIRMED Example 3: Using Reference Table During Live Trading You see Q2 breaking Q1 low during 2AM session: Quick reference check: 2AM row, "When Q2 BREAKS Q1 LOW" section Curve: 42.8% | Cont: 43.3% | Winner: Balanced Interpretation: This is a coin flip - 2AM session is balanced when Q2 breaks low. Don't force a directional bias. Wait for second half price action confirmation or skip the setup. Example 4: No Setup Scenario Scenario: 6AM candle, Q2 ends at 8:00 AM Q2 stayed within Q1 range (no break above or below) Live table shows: "📊 No Q2 Break Occurred" Trading Decision: No curve/continuation setup exists. This analysis only applies when Q2 breaks Q1 range. Monitor for different strategies or wait for next 4H candle. UNDERSTANDING THE UNDERLYING METHODOLOGY Data Foundation: Instrument: NQ Futures (E-mini NASDAQ-100) Timeframe: 1-minute bars for precise quarter tracking Period: January 2013 - December 2025 Sample: 3,136+ complete trading days Total 4H Candles Analyzed: ~18,800+ individual sessions Analysis Process: For each 4H candle in the dataset: Calculate Q1 high and low (first hour range) Track whether Q2 breaks Q1 high, Q1 low, both, or neither When Q2 breaks Q1 range, measure second half response: Did Q3+Q4 make new low below Q1? (curve when Q2 broke high) Did Q3+Q4 make new high above Q1? (curve when Q2 broke low) Did Q3+Q4 make new high above Q2? (continuation when Q2 broke high) Did Q3+Q4 make new low below Q2? (continuation when Q2 broke low) Calculate percentages for each session Why NQ-Specific? Different futures contracts exhibit different intraday personality: NQ (NASDAQ): Tech-heavy, volatility-prone 6AM shows extreme curve behavior (60-64%) due to NY Open reversal tendency 10AM shows strong continuation (60%) as trends establish ES (S&P 500) would show different probabilities because: Lower volatility than NQ Different institutional participation patterns Different response to macro events The indicator's probabilities are calibrated specifically to NQ behavior patterns. Using it on ES, RTY, or other instruments will produce misleading signals. ORIGINALITY & INNOVATION What Makes This Indicator Unique: Quarter-Based Curve Analysis: Unlike traditional indicators that only identify breakouts, this tracks what happens after the breakout. The curve vs continuation framework is novel and provides directional edge. Session-Specific Behavior: Recognizes that 6AM behaves fundamentally differently than 10AM. Most indicators apply the same logic across all sessions. This indicator provides session-specific probabilities. Statistical Validation: Every probability shown is backed by 10+ years of data (2,900+ candles per session). Not based on theory or discretionary observation. Real-Time Quarter Tracking: Precisely identifies which quarter you're in and what stage of the pattern is forming. Provides forward-looking probabilities based on current state. The 6AM Discovery: The 60-64% curve probability in 6AM is a quantified, repeatable edge that contradicts traditional "breakout = continuation" assumptions. This session exhibits mean reversion characteristics that most traders miss. Dual-Direction Analysis: Tracks both upside breaks (Q2 > Q1 high) and downside breaks (Q2 < Q1 low) separately, as they can have different probabilities. Visual Quarter System: The combination of colored boxes, quarter separators, and real-time labels provides instant visual understanding of pattern stage and expected behavior. HOW TO USE THIS INDICATOR Step 1: Identify Current 4H Candle Check which colored box you're in and what session it represents. Step 2: Wait for Q2 to Complete The setup doesn't exist until Q2 (hour 2) breaks Q1 range. Monitor the live table. Step 3: Check Q2 Break Status Did Q2 break Q1 high? Q1 low? Both? Or neither? Step 4: Consult Reference Table Look up current session in curve reference table. What's the probability? Step 5: Apply Session-Specific Strategy For 6AM (60-64% curve): Q2 breaks high → Expect curve back for new low Q2 breaks low → Expect curve back for new high Strategy: FADE the Q2 break, look for reversal entries in Q3-Q4 For 10AM (52-60% continuation): Q2 breaks high → Expect continuation higher Q2 breaks low → Expect continuation lower Strategy: TRADE WITH the Q2 break, look for continuation entries in Q3-Q4 For 2AM (38-43% curve, 43-47% continuation): Balanced probabilities Strategy: Wait for Q3 price action to confirm direction, or skip For 6PM/10PM (50-59% continuation): Moderate continuation bias Strategy: Lean with the break but use tight stops Step 6: Monitor Live Status Watch the live table for confirmation: "✓ CURVE CONFIRMED" = Mean reversion occurred "✓ CONTINUATION CONFIRMED" = Follow-through occurred "⏳ 2nd Half In Progress" = Still developing BEST PRACTICES Focus on 6AM for curve trades - This is THE high-probability mean reversion session Focus on 10AM for continuation trades - This is THE high-probability breakout session Be cautious with 2AM - Balanced probabilities mean lower edge Use quarter separators - Enter trades early in Q3 after Q2 break, don't wait for Q4 Combine with price action - Don't blindly fade 6AM or follow 10AM; wait for confirming price structure Respect the 60% rule - 6AM curve happens 60% of time, which means 40% it doesn't. Manage risk accordingly Watch for "No Q2 Break" - If Q2 doesn't break Q1, this analysis doesn't apply Consider overnight context - If 6AM opens with huge gap, curve probability may be affected SETTINGS & CUSTOMIZATION Display Settings: Show 4H Candle Boxes - Toggle colored range boxes Box Colors - Customize color for each session Show Quarter Separators - Show/hide 1H, 2H, 3H lines Show Candle Name Labels - Show/hide session labels at 2H mark Separator Line Style - Solid/Dashed/Dotted Max Historical Candles - How many past 4H candles to display (1-50) Table Settings: Show Live Status Table - Toggle real-time analysis table Show Curve Reference Table - Toggle probability reference table Table Positions - Place tables in any corner Table Text Size - Tiny/Small/Normal LIMITATIONS & DISCLAIMERS NQ FUTURES ONLY - All probabilities are NQ-specific, do not use on other instruments Requires Q2 break - No curve/continuation setup exists if Q2 stays within Q1 range Probabilities, not certainties - 60% means it happens 6 out of 10 times, not every time Lower timeframe noise - 1-minute tracking can be choppy, consider using 5min+ for entries Gap days - Large overnight gaps may affect curve/continuation probabilities Not standalone - Use as confluence with your strategy, not as sole decision factor Historical performance - Past statistics don't guarantee future results WHY THE CURVE CONCEPT MATTERS Traditional trading wisdom says: "Breakout = Continuation" This indicator proves that's not always true. Specifically, during the 6AM session (late London + NY Open), when Q2 breaks the Q1 range, price curves back to the opposite extreme 60-64% of the time. This creates a unique exploitable edge: Most breakout traders go LONG when Q2 breaks Q1 high But in 6AM, 60.6% of the time, price curves back down for new low Shorting the breakout (counter-intuitive) is the higher-probability trade The 10AM session shows the opposite: Breakouts in 10AM tend to follow through (52-60%) Traditional "trade the breakout" strategy works better here By knowing which session you're in, you can adapt your strategy to match the session's personality. FINAL NOTES This indicator distills 10+ years of NQ intraday behavior into actionable, session-specific probabilities. The discovery that 6AM exhibits 60-64% curve behavior while 10AM exhibits 52-60% continuation behavior provides a statistical edge for mean reversion and trend-following traders respectively. The highest-probability setups: 6AM Q2 break → FADE (60-64% edge for curve) 10AM Q2 break → FOLLOW (52-60% edge for continuation) 2AM = SKIP (balanced probabilities, no clear edge) Master the 6AM curve and 10AM continuation first. These two sessions provide the clearest statistical edges. Remember: Trade with proper risk management. This tool provides probabilities based on historical behavior, not predictions of future performance.
Pine Script® indicator
by lucymatos
2
4H HOD/LOD Checkpoint Analysis4H HOD/LOD Checkpoint Analysis - Detailed User Guide OVERVIEW This indicator is a data-driven probability framework for NQ Futures traders that predicts High-of-Day (HOD) and Low-of-Day (LOD) placement based on statistical analysis of 3,136+ trading days (2013-2025). Unlike traditional indicators that rely on technical signals, this tool uses checkpoint-based state analysis with zero forward-looking bias to provide real-time probabilities of whether the daily range is complete. ⚠️ IMPORTANT: This indicator is specifically designed for NQ FUTURES ONLY. All probabilities, patterns, and statistics were derived from a 10+ year historical dataset of NQ 1-minute bars. Using this on other instruments will produce inaccurate results. CORE CONCEPT: CHECKPOINT METHODOLOGY What is a Checkpoint? A checkpoint occurs when a 4-hour candle closes. At this moment, the indicator "locks" the current market state and calculates probabilities for the remainder of the trading day. The key innovation is that state never changes after locking - probabilities remain constant throughout the session until the next checkpoint. The Six 4-Hour Candles (EST): 6PM (18:00-22:00) - Evening/Globex open 10PM (22:00-02:00) - Asia session 2AM (02:00-06:00) - Early London 6AM (06:00-10:00) - Late London + NY Open 10AM (10:00-14:00) - NY Morning 2PM (14:00-17:00) - NY Afternoon (3 hours only) Five Checkpoints: 10PM Checkpoint - After 6PM closes 2AM Checkpoint - After 10PM closes 6AM Checkpoint - After 2AM closes 10AM Checkpoint - After 6AM closes (most critical) 2PM Checkpoint - After 10AM closes (highest conviction fade signals) HOW IT WORKS: THE THREE-FACTOR STATE SYSTEM At each checkpoint, the indicator evaluates three critical factors to determine probability: 1. ELIMINATIONS (Quantity) An "elimination" occurs when a candle trades beyond a previous candle's high or low, effectively removing that candle from contention for HOD/LOD. Example at 10AM Checkpoint: 6PM high = 18,000 10PM high = 18,050 (eliminates 6PM high) 2AM high = 18,100 (eliminates 10PM high) 6AM high = 18,075 (does NOT eliminate 2AM high) Result: 2 eliminations The number of eliminations indicates trend strength: 0 eliminations = Range-bound, high probability extremes already set 1-2 eliminations = Moderate trend 3-4 eliminations = Strong trend day, range likely to extend 2. STRUCTURE (Pattern Type) The indicator distinguishes between two elimination patterns: Sequential: Eliminations occur in order (6pm → 10pm → 2am → 6am → 10am) Indicates smooth, consistent trend Example: 10pm eliminates 6pm, then 2am eliminates 10pm (sequential) Skip: Eliminations skip candles Indicates choppy/reversal behavior Example: 2am eliminates 6pm but NOT 10pm (skip pattern) Why it matters: Skip patterns show 2X probability differences compared to sequential patterns. At 10AM checkpoint with 2 eliminations, skip pattern shows 64% participation rate vs 36% for sequential pattern with previous survived. 3. PREVIOUS CANDLE STATUS Did the immediately prior candle get eliminated? Eliminated: Previous candle's high/low was taken out Indicates relentless trend Higher probability of continuation Survived: Previous candle's high/low still intact Indicates trend pause Higher probability of mean reversion or range completion Critical insight: High and low are tracked separately. At 2AM checkpoint, 10PM might have eliminated 6PM high (relentless uptrend) but NOT eliminated 6PM low (low survived). This creates different probabilities for HOD vs LOD. VISUAL ELEMENTS 4-Hour Candle Boxes Each 4H candle is displayed as a colored box showing its range: Gray = 6PM (evening) Blue = 10PM (Asia) Purple = 2AM (early London) Orange = 6AM (London + NY Open) - THE CURVE SESSION Teal = 10AM (NY morning) - THE MONEY SESSION Red = 2PM (NY afternoon) - THE FADE SESSION HOD/LOD Lines Black horizontal lines extend from current HOD/LOD with labels showing: Which candle set the extreme Current price level THE CHECKPOINT TABLE EXPLAINED Table Header: Shows current checkpoint (e.g., "🎯 10AM CHECKPOINT") or "⏳ PRE-CHECKPOINT" if between checkpoints. Main Metrics (Side-by-Side Comparison): The table displays HOD and LOD separately in two columns because they can have different patterns: METRIC HODLOD Eliminations Number of candles eliminated so far for highs Number of candles eliminated so far for lows Structure Sequential or Skip pattern for highs Sequential or Skip pattern for lows Prev Candle Was previous candle's high eliminated or did it survive? Was previous candle's low eliminated or did it survive? Pattern Combined interpretation: Relentless/Paused/Skip/Early Combined interpretation: Relentless/Paused/Skip/Early Color Coding: Structure Row: White = Sequential (smooth trend) Orange = Skip (choppy/reversal) Previous Candle Row: Red = Eliminated (relentless trend continuing) Blue = Survived (trend paused) Pattern Row: Red = Relentless (previous eliminated + sequential = strong trend) Blue = Paused (previous survived + sequential = trend pause) Orange = Skip/Chop (skip pattern = reversal likely) Gray = Early (0-1 eliminations, too early to tell) Probability Section: Prob Already In: Percentage chance that HOD/LOD has already been set Color coding: Green (>75%) = High confidence extreme is in, FADE Yellow (45-75%) = Moderate confidence Red (<45%) = Low confidence extreme is in, CONTINUATION likely Sample Size: Shows how many historical occurrences match this exact state (n=XXX) Larger samples = higher confidence Most common states have n=500-2,000+ Current: Which candle currently holds HOD/LOD Pattern Guide Section: Appears when you have 2+ eliminations. Provides interpretation: 📈 Paused: Trend has paused, 2pm more likely to set extreme 📈 Relentless: Breaking higher/lower, continuation expected 📈 Skip/Chop: Choppy pattern, next session likely Same for lows with 📉 symbol. PRACTICAL TRADING EXAMPLES Example 1: High Conviction Fade Setup State at 10AM Checkpoint: Eliminations: 0 (both HOD/LOD) Structure: None (no eliminations yet) Prev Candle: Survived Table shows: HOD Prob Already In: 68.9% (n=582) LOD Prob Already In: 73.6% (n=785) Interpretation: Range is likely complete. Fade extremes. With 0 eliminations and 70%+ probability, this is a high-conviction mean reversion signal. Example 2: Strong Continuation Signal State at 10AM Checkpoint: Eliminations: 3 (both HOD/LOD) Structure: Sequential Prev Candle: Eliminated (relentless) Table shows: HOD Prob Already In: 29.8% (n=1,758) LOD Prob Already In: 34.6% (n=1,451) Pattern: 📈 Relentless / 📉 Relentless Interpretation: Strong trend day. Only 30-35% chance range is complete. Look for breakouts in direction of trend. 10AM and 2PM likely to extend range. Example 3: Pattern Structure Edge State at 10AM Checkpoint: Eliminations: 2 (HOD) Structure: Skip (orange background) Prev Candle: Eliminated vs Alternative State: Eliminations: 2 (HOD) Structure: Sequential Prev Candle: Survived Result: Skip pattern shows 64% chance 10AM participates vs 36% for sequential+survived. Skip pattern = 2X more likely to see 10AM high. This structural edge is unique to this indicator. Example 4: Different HOD vs LOD Patterns State at 10AM Checkpoint: HOD: 2 eliminations, Sequential, Previous Eliminated (Relentless) = 46.7% in LOD: 2 eliminations, Skip, Previous Eliminated (Choppy) = 48.4% in Interpretation: Highs show relentless uptrend but lows show choppy behavior. This divergence suggests potential for upside continuation but with volatility. Not a clean trend day. KEY CHECKPOINT STATISTICS (DERIVED FROM 10-YEAR DATASET) 10PM Checkpoint (After 6PM): Very early in day 13.5% HOD in, 21.3% LOD in Most likely outcome: Range extends into 6AM/10AM 2AM Checkpoint (After 10PM): Still early With 0 elims: 22-31% in (balanced) With 1 elim: 8-12% in (strong trend signal) 6AM Checkpoint (After 2AM) - Critical Decision Point: With 0 elims: 40-47% in (balanced, could go either way) With 2 elims: 18-22% in (strong trend into 6AM/10AM) Most likely outcome: 10AM sets extremes (~38-40%) 10AM Checkpoint (After 6AM) - Highest Conviction: With 0 elims: 69-74% in → FADE (high confidence) With 3 elims: 30-35% in → BUY/SELL continuation This is THE money checkpoint for high-probability setups 2PM Checkpoint (After 10AM) - Maximum Fade Conviction: With 0-3 elims: 67-95% in → FADE strongly With 4 elims: 49-61% in (monster trend, weaker fade) 2PM is primarily a mean reversion session UNDERSTANDING THE UNDERLYING DATA All probabilities are derived from analysis of: Instrument: NQ Futures (E-mini NASDAQ-100) Timeframe: 1-minute bars Period: January 2013 - December 2025 Sample: 3,136+ complete trading days Methodology: Real-time checkpoint analysis with zero forward-looking bias Why NQ-Specific? Each futures contract has unique: Session characteristics (6AM in NQ shows 60-64% curve behavior, other sessions differ) Timing patterns (NQ's 10AM session has 67-74% immediate takeouts) Volatility profiles (NQ 2PM shows 56% bullish bias vs ES shows different bias) Using this indicator on ES, RTY, or other instruments will produce inaccurate results because the probability tables are NQ-specific. ORIGINALITY & INNOVATION What Makes This Indicator Unique: Zero Forward-Looking Bias: State locks at checkpoint moments. Traditional indicators recalculate continuously, introducing bias. This indicator freezes probabilities at the exact moment a 4H candle closes. Three-Factor State System: Combines elimination count, structure pattern, and previous candle status. Most indicators only track one dimension. This multi-factor approach provides 2X+ probability differentials. Separate HOD/LOD Tracking: Highs and lows can have different patterns simultaneously (relentless high with choppy low). This indicator tracks them separately for precision. Pattern Structure Analysis: Distinguishes between sequential and skip patterns, a concept not found in standard indicators. Skip patterns show mean reversion while sequential shows continuation. 10+ Year Statistical Foundation: Every probability is backed by hundreds to thousands of historical occurrences (sample sizes shown in table). Not based on theories or assumptions. Checkpoint-Specific Probabilities: Different checkpoints have different probability profiles. 10AM checkpoint with 0 eliminations = 70%+ fade. 6AM checkpoint with same state = 40%+ fade. Context matters. HOW TO USE THIS INDICATOR Step 1: Wait for Checkpoint The table will show "⏳ PRE-CHECKPOINT" until a 4H candle closes. Probabilities are only valid at checkpoint moments. Step 2: Read the State Check the three factors: How many eliminations? Sequential or skip? Previous candle eliminated or survived? Step 3: Check Probability Look at "Prob Already In" percentage: >75% (Green) = High confidence extreme is set, fade 45-75% (Yellow) = Moderate confidence, use other confirmation <45% (Red) = Low confidence extreme is set, continuation likely Step 4: Check Sample Size Larger sample (n=1,000+) = higher confidence Smaller sample (n=50-200) = use caution, edge is real but less robust Step 5: Consider Pattern Read the pattern guide: Relentless = trend continuing Paused = trend stalled, mean reversion Skip/Chop = reversal/range likely Step 6: Compare HOD vs LOD If both show similar patterns = cleaner signal If divergent patterns = complex day, be cautious BEST PRACTICES Focus on 10AM and 2PM checkpoints - These have the highest conviction signals Combine with price action - Don't fade blindly at 90% probability if price is breaking out strongly Larger samples = better edges - Prioritize setups with n=500+ Watch for pattern divergence - When HOD and LOD show different patterns, expect complexity Remember session characteristics: 6AM = THE CURVE SESSION (60-64% mean reversion when Q2 breaks Q1) 10AM = THE MONEY SESSION (67-74% immediate takeouts, highest conviction) 2PM = THE FADE SESSION (67-95% extremes already in) SETTINGS Show 4H Candle Boxes - Display colored boxes for each 4H candle Show HOD/LOD Lines - Display horizontal lines at current extremes Show Checkpoint Analysis - Display probability table Table Position - Choose where to place the checkpoint table Table Size - Tiny/Small/Normal Colors - Customize box colors for each session LIMITATIONS & DISCLAIMERS NQ FUTURES ONLY - Do not use on other instruments Not a standalone system - Use as confluence with your strategy Historical data - Past performance doesn't guarantee future results Sample size variance - Some states have smaller samples, use judgment Requires understanding - Read this guide fully before trading with this tool FINAL NOTES This indicator represents 10+ years of NQ futures data distilled into actionable, real-time probabilities. The checkpoint methodology ensures zero forward-looking bias, while the three-factor state system provides granular edge that traditional indicators miss. Remember: This tool provides probabilities, not certainties. Trade with proper risk management, and use this as one input in your decision-making process.
Pine Script® indicator
by lucymatos
Historical Returns [BigBeluga]🔵 OVERVIEW The Historical Returns indicator visualizes daily and monthly return data to help traders assess seasonal performance and volatility behavior. It provides a clean and informative dashboard showing the current month’s daily return bubbles, monthly return curves, and a snapshot of the current month and year performance. This tool is ideal for spotting recurring return patterns and understanding the broader profitability context of a symbol. 🔵 CONCEPTS Daily Return Bubbles: Each trading day is analyzed for its return percentage, and plotted as a bubble with size proportional to the return magnitude. Monthly Performance Curves: Average or cumulative returns are calculated and plotted to show how the current month is performing relative to historical averages. Current Year Return: Current year performance as a single return value, giving traders context on long-term profitability. Current Month Average Return: Current month average performance as a single return value, giving traders context on short-term profitability. Extreme Return Labels: Optionally highlights daily returns above +4% or below -4% with labeled percentages for spike recognition. 🔵 FEATURES Shows daily return bubbles (1%–7%+), color-coded by direction. Labels monthly returns with the month name and percentage value. Displays a performance dashboard with: Daily return heatmap for the current month. Average return for the current month. Year-to-date return. Toggle between average and cumulative modes for monthly return curves. Clearly marks days with abnormal return spikes using optional labels. Clean fallback warning if not on a daily chart ("⚠️USE DAILY TIMEFRAME"). Custom color themes for bullish and bearish values. 🔵 HOW TO USE Use the monthly return curve to compare how the current month is performing against historical averages. Look for clusters of positive or negative bubbles as signals of strong directional weeks. Watch extreme return labels for volatility spikes or catalyst days. Use year-to-date return to assess how the asset is trending in the broader macro cycle. Combine with other BigBeluga tools to align trades with historically favorable periods. 🔵 CONCLUSION Historical Returns is your visual companion for return analytics — helping you identify profitable months, detect volatility surges, and understand historical seasonality at a glance. With a clean dashboard and insightful overlays, this tool supports better timing and improved statistical edge in both short- and long-term trades.
Pine Script® indicator
by BigBeluga
3
Ultimate Lines Statistical Backtest @MaxMaseratiUltimate lines (MAs/MACD/VWAP,DWA etc..) Statistical Backtest This is a comprehensive statistical backtesting tool that allows traders to objectively measure the performance of 27+ different trading lines across multiple timeframes and sessions. Instead of guessing which moving averages, VWAPs, or volume levels actually work for your trading style, this indicator provides hard data showing exactly how price behaves around each line at specific times of day. The indicator solves a critical problem: most lines create whipsaws in choppy markets, but knowing which lines have the highest continuation rates vs reversal rates at specific session times helps you avoid false signals and focus on setups with proven statistical edges. 🎯 LINES YOU CAN TEST MMM Core Lines: Mid MA: Trend velocity tracker using simple moving average MMPD Line: Premium/Discount change-of-direction indicator Fair Value Golden Ratio: 0.618 equilibrium level between premium and discount zones Volume-Based Lines: VWAP Daily/Weekly: Volume-weighted average price (daily and weekly sessions) Volume POC Multi-TF: Multi-timeframe Point of Control (highest volume price level) Volume POC Weekly: Weekly momentum pivot based on volume distribution Range Midpoints: Range Midpoint 50: 50-period high/low midpoint Range Midpoint 14 TF1/TF2: Configurable timeframe range midpoints with smoothing options Moving Averages (10 MA Types): MACD Fast (12) / Signal (26): Standard MACD moving averages Fast MA 20 / Mid MA 50 / Slow MA 200: Classic trend-following averages Available MA Types: SMA, EMA, WMA, HMA, DEMA, TEMA, LSMA, KAMA, ALMA, VWMA Volatility Indicators: MVM Upper/Lower Bands: Momentum-based volatility bands with adaptive option HVC Bullish/Bearish: High Volume Candle support/resistance levels Ultimate Suite Advanced Lines: DWAP (Delta Weighted Average Price): Directional volume-weighted price with upper/lower bands HVN (High Volume Node): High-frequency trading node detection Hybrid Line: Volume-weighted momentum composite Trend Filter: Two-pole smoothing filter for trend clarity STL Lines: iBuSTL / iBeSTL: Internal Bullish/Bearish Structural Trend Liquidity levels ⚙️ HOW TO TEST Select Lines: Check the boxes for lines you want to analyze (Mid MA, VWAP Daily, Volume POC, etc.) Choose Times: Enable tracking for specific session times (default: 8:30 AM, 9:30 AM, 10:00 AM, Daily Close - EST) Set Lookback: Choose how many days of historical data to analyze (default: 60 days) Enable Pattern Analysis: Turn on "Enable Pattern Analysis" in settings Wait for Data: The indicator needs 20 bars after each signal time to complete analysis Review Statistics: Check the statistics table for detailed breakdowns 📈 STATISTICS EXPLAINED For Each Tracked Time, You'll See: 🟢 Above Selected Lines (X samples): Continued↑: Price stayed above the lines = bullish continuation Reversed↓: Price broke below the lines = reversal/rejection →Kept Going↓: After reversing down, price continued lower (bars 11-20) →Stalled: After reversing down, price came back up (consolidation) Neutral: Price didn't make a clear move either way 🔴 Below Selected Lines (X samples): Continued↓: Price stayed below the lines = bearish continuation Reversed↑: Price broke above the lines = reversal/support bounce →Kept Going↑: After reversing up, price continued higher (bars 11-20) →Stalled: After reversing up, price came back down (consolidation) Neutral: No clear directional move ⭐ Star Ratings: Show which outcome happens most frequently (best probability) 🔬 HYBRID DETECTION SYSTEM (ADVANCED) When enabled, the indicator uses a multi-signal composite scoring system that goes beyond simple percentage movements: Signal A - % Movement Direction (40% weight): Measures the strength and direction of price movement. Strong directional moves (>0.8%) score higher, while opposite-direction moves score negatively. Signal B - Inside Candles (30% weight): Detects true consolidation by counting how many candles close within a defined range. High inside-candle counts indicate choppy, stalled price action rather than clean continuation. Signal C - Successive Closes (30% weight): Tracks momentum persistence by counting consecutive closes in the expected direction. Long streaks (6+ bars) indicate strong follow-through, while breaks in the sequence suggest weakness. Composite Score Classification: ⭐⭐⭐ Strong (75-100 points): All three signals align - high-confidence pattern ⭐⭐ Moderate (50-75 points): Two signals agree - reliable pattern ⭐ Weak (25-50 points): Mixed signals - lower confidence ⚠️ Strong Stalled (0-25 points): Signals show consolidation/reversal This provides nuanced pattern detection that identifies not just IF a pattern succeeded, but HOW STRONGLY it performed. 💡 INTERPRETING RESULTS Good Lines Show: High continuation % when price is above/below (>60% is strong) Clean "Kept Going" patterns after reversals (>50% indicates reliable rejection) Low stalled % (less whipsaw/consolidation) Consistent patterns across multiple times (validates the line's reliability) Poor Lines Show: 50/50 continuation vs reversal (coin flip = no edge) High stalled % (lots of whipsaw/false signals) Inconsistent patterns across different times (unreliable) Example Interpretation: 9:30 AM - VWAP Daily (120 samples) 🟢 Above: Continued↑ 75 (62.5%) ⭐ BEST Reversed↓ 30 (25.0%) Meaning: When price is above VWAP Daily at 9:30 AM, it continues higher 62.5% of the time - this is a statistically strong bullish signal for that session time. 🎯 PRACTICAL VALUE Solves the Whipsaw Problem: Most moving averages and lines work beautifully in trending markets but create endless false signals in choppy, range-bound conditions. By analyzing specific session times and continuation vs reversal patterns, you can: Identify high-probability setups: Focus on lines that show >60% continuation at your preferred trading times Avoid weak signals: Skip lines with high stall rates or 50/50 outcomes Time your entries better: Know which session times produce the cleanest patterns Combine complementary lines: Stack multiple high-scoring lines for confluence Adapt to market conditions: Switch to different lines when market structure changes Real-World Application: Instead of blindly trading VWAP crosses or MA bounces, you'll have objective data showing: "At 9:30 AM on ES, when price is above Mid MA + VWAP Daily + Volume POC, it continues higher 68% of the time with strong momentum (⭐⭐⭐)." This transforms discretionary guesswork into data-driven decision making. ⚙️ LINE DEFINITIONS Moving Averages: Smooth price data over X periods to identify trend direction and dynamic support/resistance. VWAP: Anchored average price weighted by volume - institutional traders' benchmark for "fair value." Volume POC (Point of Control): Price level with the most traded volume - represents maximum market acceptance. Fair Value Golden Ratio: Fibonacci 0.618 level between recent premium (high) and discount (low) - equilibrium zone. DWAP (Delta Weighted): Price average weighted by buying vs selling volume delta - shows directional money flow. Range Midpoints: Geometric center of recent high/low range - mean reversion pivot. Volatility Bands: Envelope around momentum lines showing normal price deviation ranges. HVN (High Volume Node): Automated detection of high-volume price clusters - institutional accumulation/distribution zones. Note: This indicator is purely for statistical analysis and backtesting. It does not generate trade signals or provide entry/exit recommendations. Use the statistics to inform your own trading decisions and strategy development.
Pine Script® indicator
by MaxMaserati
BTC - DCA vs HODL Calculator MatrixBTC - DCA vs. HODL Calculator Matrix | RM Overview The BTC - DCA vs. HODL Calculator Matrix is a high-performance telemetry laboratory designed to settle the ultimate debate in Bitcoin accumulation: Is it more efficient to deploy all capital at once ( Lump Sum & HODL ) or utilize a recurring purchase strategy ( DCA )? More importantly, if DCA is the choice, which exact frequency and weekday provides the mathematical edge? The Calculator Matrix was engineered to solve a critical limitation in the current script ecosystem (at least I couldnt find such an indicator): the inability to compare multiple DCA frequencies and specific calendar days simultaneously within a single dashboard. While developing this tool, I found that existing calculators typically only permit testing one strategy at a time (e.g., a generic "Weekly" buy). This script fills that gap by utilizing a high-performance array-based "Telemetry Engine" to rank dozens of variables—including every individual weekday and specific monthly dates—against a HODL benchmark in real-time. This unique simultaneous comparison allows investors to mathematically identify "Weekday Alpha" across any user-defined timeframe. Core Philosophy The script utilizes a Normalized Capital Model . To ensure a true "apples-to-apples" comparison, your total capital (e.g., $10,000) is distributed with mathematical precision across the exact number of entries for each specific strategy. This eliminates the ROI skewing commonly found in basic scripts, ensuring that every strategy is judged on the same total dollar expenditure over the same "Race Track." Key Features & Analytics • The Podium System: An automated ranking algorithm that awards 🥇 Gold, 🥈 Silver, and 🥉 Bronze medals to the top three performing strategies. Spoiler: Regular Winner: 1-time HODL (Lump Sum) • Simultaneous Strategy Testing: Compare Daily, 7 different Weekly days (Mon-Sun), and Monthly dates (1st–28th) all at once. • Risk Telemetry: Integrated Max Drawdown (MDD) sensors for every strategy, revealing the "Emotional Cost" of your accumulation path. • Race Track Visuals: Blue dashed "Green Flag" and "Checkered Flag" lines visually define the boundaries of your backtest. • Dashboard Customization: Use the "Odd/Even" filter to keep the matrix sleek and readable on (nearly) any screen resolution. The Strategies Tested • 1-TIME HODL: The benchmark (Lump sum entry on Day 1 - meaning all the capital is deployed at the start date). • DAILY DCA: High-frequency, day-by-day accumulation (the capital is split amongst the different entries). • WEEKLY (SUN-SAT): Evaluates which specific day of the week historically captures the best entries (e.g., "Weekend Dips").(The capital is split amongst the different entries). • MONTHLY (1-28 + END): Tests monthly date performance to optimize for beginning-of-month or end-of-month cycles. (The capital is split amongst the different entries). Monte Carlo Simulation & Python Research While this tool allows you to manually check any specific timeframe, manual testing is limited by "Start Date Bias." To find the Universal Winner , I have conducted a Monte Carlo Simulation using 100 random entry dates over the last 5 years via Python/Colab. This research reveals the statistical probability of a day (like Saturday) winning the Gold medal across all market conditions. Access the Python Heatmap Research in my substack article (link for substack in Bio). How to Use 1. Set the Race Track: Input Start and End dates in the settings. 2. Fuel the Engine: Set your Total Capital ($). 3. Analyze the Matrix: Compare ROI vs. MAX DD. The goal is not just the highest return, but the best Risk-Adjusted return. Technical Implementation This script utilizes an array-based telemetry engine to handle the simultaneous calculation of 30+ independent investment strategies. To ensure computational efficiency and bypass the limitations of standard security-based backtesting, I implemented a custom-built accumulator logic using array.new_float() and array.set() . The core calculation loop ( if in_race and is_new_day ) processes capital deployment on a per-bar basis, utilizing ta.change(time("D")) to ensure entry synchronization with the Daily UTC close. By decoupling the unit accumulation ( u_weekly , u_monthly ) from the final valuation logic ( f_get_stats ), the script maintains a Normalized Capital Model. This ensures that even with complex comparative logic across varying frequencies, the script provides a mathematically rigorous, reproducible result that matches real-world execution at the Daily UTC Midnight close. Note: All calculations are made on the "close" bar, which means UTC 00:00. By creating a strategy or using the research, make sure to be aware of your time zone Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. This tool is for educational and research purposes only. Rob Maths is not liable for any financial losses. Tags: robmaths, Rob Maths, DCA, HODL, Bitcoin, BTC, Backtest, RiskManagement, Investment, Strategy, Statistics
Pine Script® indicator
by Rob_Maths
Buy / Sell Volume HeaderBuy / Sell Volume Header Description - Buy / Sell Volume Header displays real-time buying and selling volume with percentages in a clean dashboard at the top or bottom of your chart. The indicator calculates buying pressure as volume weighted toward the close relative to the bar's range, and selling pressure as volume weighted toward the high. - Perfect for day traders and scalpers who need instant visual confirmation of buying vs selling pressure without cluttering their chart with additional panes. Key Features: - Real-time buy/sell volume split with percentages - Customizable lookback period (1 bar for current, or sum multiple bars) - Adjustable table position (top/bottom, left/center/right) - Five size options (Tiny to Huge) - Color-coded: Green (buying volume), Red (selling volume) - Clean, minimal design that doesn't obstruct price action Calculation Method: - Buying Volume = Total Volume × (Close - Low) / (High - Low) - Selling Volume = Total Volume × (High - Close) / (High - Low) How to Use: - Select header location (default: Top Right) and table size (default: Normal). Set lookback period to 1 for current bar only, or higher values to see cumulative volume over multiple bars. Reading the Display: - Green Box (Left): Buying volume and percentage of total - Red Box (Right): Selling volume and percentage of total - Numbers update in real-time on every tick Trading Applications: - Trend Confirmation: - In uptrends, buying volume should consistently be >60%. - In downtrends, selling volume should be >60%. Divergences warn of potential reversals. Breakout Validation: - Valid breakouts show 70%+ volume in breakout direction. - Breakouts with <55% directional volume often fail. Reversal Signals: - When price makes new high but buying volume drops below 50%, watch for reversal. When price makes new low but selling volume drops below 50%, watch for bounce. Scalping Entry: - Enter long when buying volume spikes above 65-70% with price momentum. Enter short when selling volume spikes above 65-70% with price momentum. Best Practices: - Use lookback=1 for intraday scalping. Use lookback=3-5 for swing context. Combine with price action for confirmation. Volume percentages work best on liquid instruments (MNQ, MES, stocks with high volume). NPR21 Disclaimer The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView.
Pine Script® indicator
by NPR21
Contract Size OverviewNever second-guess your position size again. This indicator displays your pre-configured contract or lot sizes for all your frequently traded instruments, so you always know exactly how much to trade the moment you open a chart. 🎯 Why Use This? Switching between ES futures, crypto pairs, and forex? Each instrument likely has a different position size based on your risk management. Instead of calculating or remembering sizes every time, configure them once and let the indicator do the work. ✨ Key Features Configure up to 10 symbols with custom position sizes Full support for fractional sizes (0.1 BTC, 0.25 ETH, etc.) Automatic symbol detection — works with continuous contracts (ES1!, NQH2025, etc.) Two display modes: current symbol only or full watchlist Optional large on-chart label for instant visibility Fully customizable colors and positioning 📖 How To Use Add the indicator to your chart Open settings and enter your traded symbols (ES, NQ, BTCUSDT, etc.) Set your default position size for each Switch between charts — your size appears automatically ⚙️ Display Options Single Mode : Shows only the current chart's position size — clean and minimal List Mode : Displays all configured symbols with the current one highlighted Large Label : Optional prominent display directly on the price chart 💡 Perfect For Futures traders managing multiple contracts (ES, NQ, CL, GC) Crypto traders with fractional position sizes Anyone who trades multiple instruments with different risk allocations Traders who want to eliminate sizing mistakes when switching markets ⚠️ Note This is an informational overlay only. It does not execute trades or connect to any broker.
Pine Script® indicator
by trading-guide
1
Buy & Hold Compounded ValueBuy & Hold Compounded Value This indicator calculates the cumulative compounded value of a buy-and-hold investment from the instrument’s inception. Starting from a user-defined initial investment (default $1000), it compounds returns using monthly price changes and displays the current portfolio value in the TradingView status line only. Designed for use on monthly charts, it provides a clean, clutter-free way to evaluate long-term performance without adding any visuals to the chart.
Pine Script® indicator
by bronek536
Market Entropy [Alpha Extract]A sophisticated information theory-based market analysis system that measures price randomness and structural order using Shannon entropy calculations across price, returns, and volume distributions. Utilizing adaptive percentile-based thresholds and multi-timeframe confirmation, this indicator delivers institutional-grade regime classification distinguishing between structured trending conditions and chaotic ranging environments. The system's composite entropy framework combined with dynamic gradient visualization and MTF alignment validation provides comprehensive market state assessment for optimal strategy selection and risk management. 🔶 Advanced Shannon Entropy Engine Implements pure information theory methodology using histogram distribution analysis with configurable bin counts to calculate normalized entropy values for price, returns, and volume metrics. The system constructs probability distributions from rolling windows, applies logarithmic entropy calculations, and normalizes against theoretical maximum entropy to produce 0-1 bounded measurements of market randomness and predictability. float entropy = 0.0 float total = float(len) for i = 0 to bins - 1 float count = array.get(bin_counts, i) if count > 0 float prob = count / total entropy -= prob * math.log(prob) / math.log(2) float max_entropy = math.log(bins) / math.log(2) result := entropy / max_entropy 🔶 Adaptive Percentile Threshold System Features intelligent threshold determination using rolling percentile calculations over configurable calibration periods to establish structure and chaos zones that adapt to changing market characteristics. The system calculates lower percentile for structure threshold (ordered markets) and upper percentile for chaos threshold (random markets), enabling regime classification that adjusts automatically to market evolution. 🔶 Multi-Timeframe Alignment Framework Implements comprehensive MTF entropy analysis retrieving composite entropy from three configurable higher timeframes with alignment validation logic. The system calculates divergence between current timeframe entropy and higher timeframe values, generating confirmation signals only when all timeframes exhibit entropy agreement within tolerance bands for enhanced signal reliability. 🔶 Three-Regime Classification Engine Provides sophisticated market state determination classifying conditions as structure (entropy below lower threshold), chaos (entropy above upper threshold), or neutral (entropy between thresholds) with regime strength measurement. The system tracks regime transitions and calculates conviction scores based on distance from thresholds, enabling nuanced assessment of market order versus randomness. 🔶 Composite Entropy Architecture Combines three distinct entropy measurements weighted by relevance to create unified market randomness metric with exponential smoothing for stability. The system applies 40% weight to price entropy (distribution shape), 35% to return entropy (movement patterns), and 25% to volume entropy (participation randomness), capturing comprehensive market microstructure information. 🔶 Dynamic Gradient Visualization System Features advanced color blending engine that transitions between primary and secondary colors based on entropy momentum intensity with glow effects for conviction emphasis. The system calculates entropy rate of change, normalizes against recent extremes, and applies smooth color interpolation from secondary to primary hues as momentum intensifies, creating intuitive visual representation of regime strength. 🔶 Intelligent Zone Fill Architecture Implements multi-layer gradient fills within structure and chaos zones that intensify as entropy moves deeper into extremes, providing immediate visual feedback on regime conviction. The system creates three-tier gradient levels at 33%, 66%, and 100% penetration into zones with progressively lower transparency, emphasizing extreme entropy conditions requiring attention. 🔶 Momentum-Based Divergence Detection Generates entry signals when entropy crosses below bull divergence level or above bear divergence level, identifying potential regime transitions before price confirmation. The system monitors entropy momentum direction during threshold crossings and validates with MTF alignment, producing high-probability reversal signals at entropy extremes. 🔶 Normalized Display Framework Provides 0-100 scaled visualization using adaptive min-max normalization calculated from percentile analysis, ensuring consistent visual interpretation across different market conditions and instruments. The system transforms raw composite entropy into normalized space with dynamic thresholds, enabling cross-market and cross-timeframe entropy comparison. 🔶 Regime Strength Measurement Calculates conviction scores measuring depth of entropy penetration into structure or chaos zones relative to historical ranges, quantifying how definitively current conditions favor trending versus ranging strategies. The system produces 0-1 strength values that modulate visual intensity and can inform position sizing or strategy allocation decisions. 🔶 Performance Optimization Framework Utilizes efficient array operations with optimized histogram calculations and configurable lookback limits to balance accuracy with computational efficiency. The system includes intelligent caching of percentile calculations and streamlined probability summations for smooth real-time entropy updates across extended historical periods. 🔶 Why Choose Market Entropy ? This indicator delivers sophisticated market regime analysis through pure information theory methodology measuring actual randomness versus structure in price behavior. Unlike traditional volatility or trend indicators that measure price movement characteristics, Market Entropy quantifies the fundamental predictability of market conditions using Shannon entropy calculations. The system's composite approach combining price, return, and volume distributions with adaptive thresholds, MTF confirmation, and gradient visualization makes it essential for traders seeking objective regime classification to optimize strategy selection. Low entropy (structure zone) indicates ordered, trending conditions favorable for directional strategies, while high entropy (chaos zone) signals random, ranging markets better suited for mean reversion or reduced exposure. The indicator excels at identifying regime transitions before they become obvious in price action across cryptocurrency, forex, and equity markets.
Pine Script® indicator
by AlphaExtract
Half Closing CandleHalf Closing Candle This indicator identifies candles whose closing price falls within the upper or lower half of the candle range, measured from the midpoint relative to the candle’s open. It helps traders quickly spot candles that close toward the open or high/low extremes, providing insight into momentum, indecision, or potential reversal areas. The script highlights these candles with a subtle, non-intrusive overlay directly on the chart, without altering candle wicks or overall price representation, ensuring visual clarity and professional presentation.
Pine Script® indicator
by simonyap118