HK50 oh my god this index is crazy. I was really expecting that gap below to be filled todayCommunity discussions
HK50 oh my god this index is crazy. I was really expecting that gap below to be filled today
HSI tradingview.com/x/vBY8PFxw/
Whatever goes up it comes down and vice versa.
The index didn't stay above the support level 26830 last Friday. It was a bull trap on last two trading days of last week tsk tsk tsk...trying so hard break the resistance level but failed!
Adding on the revived trade war news during US session was not helping at all.
The futures nose-dived due to news - revived trade war.
Some traders say; after the Golden Week holiday, the Index always going thru huge pull back at least 10-15%. then moving sideways till early Jan 2026 (giving Chinese New Year 📦?)
What do you think?
tradingview.com/x/g85405zh/
The Index are moving below the 40MA and 52MA (again this is being pull back to Gravity TrendLine) this break its uptrend channel and likely going to move below within 5% below the GravityTrendLine.
Key support level 24735, then 24200, 23800,23311 (lower band of GravityTrendLine)
Continue to monitor the key support and resistance level and manage your risk for swing trade (either call/sell long/short)
This is very significant pull-back (a range -10% to -15% from the recent Hi). Well, we can't predict the markets. From the HSI movements history, probably we can kind of forecast its path. maybe.History is past, but we can always refer to its pattern.
We don't know what happen to the upcoming revived trade war, but the HSI seems having its own pathway.
Combining the GravityTrendLine and MACD, support and resistance levels; we can try to understand and see how it moving forward... But we need this pause and pitstop.
Let's go through longer term of HSI in another post.
HSI would the history repeat if so, then it's very much predictable??? Would the traders start to accumulate again?tradingview.com/x/d8KVe9tR/
After the mid-autumn festival holiday, traders/investors lock the gains and the pull back quite harsh this morning market re-opened.
HK50 📊 HK50 Live Market Feed - October 6, 2025🔥 Current Price & Performance
Spot Index Level: 26,957.77 points
Explanation: This is the closing value of the Hang Seng Index (HK50 equivalent) after full trading session in Hong Kong time. It reflects real-time settlement from major exchange data, capturing the day's final buyer-seller balance.
Daily Change: -183.15 points (-0.67%)
Explanation: A modest pullback from the prior session's momentum, driven by profit-taking in tech and financial sectors amid global cues like US fiscal concerns. High: 27,195 | Low: 26,908, showing intraday volatility stayed contained under 1%.
Weekly Gain: +3.9% (from prior Friday close)
Explanation: Strong rebound week overall, outpacing most Asian peers, fueled by renewed China stimulus hopes and Big Tech recovery (e.g., Tencent, Alibaba upticks).
📈 Fundamental & Macro Score Points (Out of 10)
Fundamental Score: 6.5/10
Explanation: Balanced on solid corporate earnings from Hang Seng constituents (60%+ China-linked), but weighed by real estate sector drags (11% weight). Key drivers: Financials at 48% index weight hold steady, with banks reporting stable loan books despite $25B in stressed assets.
Macro Score: 7.0/10
Explanation: Supportive from steady growth signals, but tempered by external US policy risks. Highlights include resilient exports and tourism rebound, offset by housing slowdowns.
🌦️ Seasonal Tendencies
October Pattern: Historically +1.2% average monthly return (past 20 years)
Explanation: October kicks off a bullish window for HK50, often seeing buys from late-month lows into year-end rally. This aligns with post-summer positioning and China policy announcements, reducing seasonal sell-offs seen in prior Q3.
💰 Key Economic Indicators
Interest Rates: Base Rate at 4.50% | Overnight HIBOR 3.77%
Explanation: HKMA tracks Fed cuts, keeping borrowing costs low to support liquidity. This eases pressure on index-heavy banks and property firms, encouraging carry trades in HKD assets. No major hikes signaled for Q4.
Inflation Rates (CPI YoY): 1.10% (August data; full-year forecast 1.5%)
Explanation: Mild uptick from July's 1.0%, driven by food and housing costs, but core remains tame. This low-pressure environment aids consumer spending without triggering rate squeezes, positive for retail-linked stocks.
GDP Growth Rates: Q2 YoY +3.1% | Full-Year 2025 Forecast 2%-3%
Explanation: Quarterly expansion from exports (+5.4%) and services rebound, but Q3 pace may soften to 2.5% on trade frictions. Steady clip supports corporate profits without overheating.
Bank Orders (HKMA Actions): Routine Exchange Fund Bill tenders issued; no aggressive interventions
Explanation: HKMA focused on bill auctions (e.g., Q4 maturity Jan 2026) and coin circulation ops to maintain HKD peg stability. No emergency liquidity injections, signaling confidence in reserves over $420B.
😊 Trader Sentiment Outlook
Retail Traders: 55% Bullish | 45% Bearish
Explanation: Retail crowd leans optimistic on short-term tech bounces, per client positioning data, but cautious on US spillover risks pulling positions flat. Measures mood via order flow—higher buy volume in autos/miners.
Institutional Traders: 62% Bullish | 38% Bearish
Explanation: Big funds favor longs on China recovery bets, with net inflows into ETFs. Sentiment tracked via allocation shifts—reduced shorts in financials, reflecting pro-growth macro bets over volatility fears.
📉 Overall Investor Mood Measures
Fear & Greed Index: 42 (Neutral-Fear Zone)
Explanation: Mid-range reading from volatility gauges (VHSI at 21, low fear implied). Investors balanced between greed on weekly highs and fear from global shutdown talks—evident in trimmed positions pre-holiday.
Mood Summary: Cautiously Optimistic (65% Positive Sentiment Flow)
Explanation: Blended gauge shows investors tilting toward holding/buying dips, with low volatility signaling steady nerves. Retail chases momentum, while institutions anchor on fundamental
HK50 trapping shorts again!
HK50 seems like the price is hovering near the resistance, a breakthrough may advance further up towards 27,xxx. *this is not an investment advice. just a disclaimer🙏
HK50 imo, either an uptrend resumption to retest the ATH near above 27,040-27,070 or a push down from 26,600+/-current price 26440 when I posted this
hey hey! HSI starting to take short position for the pullback?
HSI starting to take short position for the pullback?HK50 next price target is likely around 26,200+/-
HK50 added shorts at 25950