Market insights
Downside for the AEX (dutch 25 biggest stocks)Lets wait for level 495/500 to hit before buying any stocks correlated to the AEX.
Dutch AEX index set to decline further in coming week?AEX index shows possibly the start of the C-wave down starting a topping period. -- AEX index staat mogelijk aan de vooravond van een daling van enkele dagen/weken. Ik zie dit als de start van een langere termijn top formatie.
Dutch AEX Likely To Start A New Bull Market Now.The Chart of the dutch AEX is showing a clear brake of a major multi-year down trendline. In yesterdays Dutch election 81% of Dutch citizens voted against populism and for the European Union as voters said asked in exit polls.
After the BREXIT the overall sentiment for European Stockmarkets had been mostly bearish.
After the BREXIT fears are mounting that more European Countries might leave the EU now for 9 month. Those fears might be overdone. Same time the fundamentals in Europe showing strong signs of recovery. The AEX chart is supporting also a more optimistic view.
Nehterland ATX: Trump Backfires European Far Right Wing PartiesIf you see this chart: Do you believe this is Netherlands AEX? The Stockmarket Index of a country, where most Traders expect the victor of the far right and anti islam party PVV from Geert Wilders?
The PVV follows and copy the politics of Donald Trump and is in favour for Vladimir Putin also.
Fact´s are, right now, clear: Dutch Voters getting more and more scared about any far right poltics and European voters in general are right now more sceptic about parties based on anti-Islam and anti-EU/Euro only. This is a tremendous change within a few weeks only starting on Trumps Inauguration Day on January 20th. Keep your attention now to the facts, that the Dutch election is coming soon and that a lot of Pro´s betting against the Euro and European Government Bonds still because they have no clue about this quick change on voters mind - until now. Maybe this might change again - than we need to follow this.
Pro´s Betting On Victories Of Far Right Wing Parties.This Chart is self explaining. A fews days only after Donald Trumps Inauguration Netherlands opinion polls showing Geert Wilders opproval rates to fall sharply. Same time Netherlands Stockmarket Index AEX starts rising - and look how string this rise is until today.
If you read same time anglo-american investors opinion than the message is clear: Short the Euro, short Europe and especially short French government bonds.
Any Trader knows that finally only one side can be right. If the polls might change again trader needs to follow this also like any victory of Geert Wilders PVV to take over Power in the Netherlands. But right now there is a huge gap in-between the facts changed in the last three weeks and the overall market view or sentiment. To know this keeps you ahead of the crowd. To make it clear and please get the point: It is not our issue to predict any result of any election. What we need to focus on is how the majority of traders is betting on and if how the facts are.
AEX Possible correctionWe hit a potential top and if no new information arises then this should be the more probable outcome in my opinion at the moment .. or something ike it
Update AEX: Took out the high so all bets are offThis a follow up in this forecast:
First downside target met, but then AEX shot up and took out the high, so previous analysis is not valid anymore.
Wait and see priceaction beginning of next week before jumping conclusions.
Forecast AEX: lower lowsIf AEX is not capable to make a higher high this week, we might see a correction towards 490 and later maybe 485.
AEX - Breakout- LongThe price has broke the resistance of the bullish flag pattern. The trend will probably continue.
First target is 0.618. The 0.618 fib. extension is also in line with the resistancezone 505~510.
AEX Forecast for next week(s)Coming weeks I expect a move to the upside since liquidity is resting above the market
AEX on Friday 27th of Jan _ projection for next week Buy higher and sell higher: who dares?
It was an interesting week where the bulls are in extreme control. A lot of shorts has been scared for taking positions, and thus volume is going lower and lower.
TradingEcology is waiting on negative divergence signals on daily timeframe before any short position would be considered. As displayed in the hourly timeframe it is just the other side of the story, as you can detect some positive divergence. It is likely to recorded an up wave towards point D, if the supportzone around 482 will hold. As a first harmo on 482,30 would be a good try to go long under oversold condition, TradingEccology will be a first mover to play on the breakout of 490 (stop squeeze area).
At this moment eur/usd is influencing our beliefs about markets since it is on a major level. For coming days TradingEcology is flexible but long minded to the eur/usd however we detect oppurtunities to short from higher level towards parity.
Those shifts will influence the wave structure of the AEX.
As explained in our year report 2017 . The bull market has some time to take price higher.
Best to your trading!
TradingEcology
To trade natural patterns unnaturally perfect
AEX _ start of the week on Dutch-Index (mon 23th of January2017)However oil price are strong backed by cutting crude production and individual stocks are outperforming concencus it is likely to record a high on Monday 23th of January at 488,8 point in AEX.
If 488,80 harmo will coincide with overbought condition and a valid short in 2h timeframe, it is likely to sell to point D. However in mid of this week Gann points are stronger, to look for 'opp. into strengths.
Overall the market is in a strong uptrend, with sideway behaviour to 'square out price range expension from the Trump rally. TradingEcology does expect a strong rise towards April/March to roughly 530. Our perception to correction in price are very flexibly minded, though timecorrection is an unnatural breather for higher prices in future.
In the yearly hot projection report you can find the exact price&time relations.
Best to your trading!
Friday 13th of January (end of the week) Dutch AEX-index"Three things cannot be long hidden: the sun, the moon, and the truth."
Buddha
So can we short the AEX-index with full moon?
TradingEcology applies understanding of natural patterns towards stock movement as learned by the masters of math: W.D. Gann and Fibonacci. As this trading week have ended, some very interesting patterns can run the show for coming two weeks, till first week of February
In the chart, TradingEcology has detected two harmonic price patterns which will be initiated near point C (blue arrow down). As the 'FTI (aex-future) closed on 22pm (later than displayed 'aex 'cfd here) a valid short has been recored on 2h timeframe on Friday 13th of January. Those kind of setups give very minor reasons for a rise in price, with time is ticking and favor of a little short correction as well.
TradingEcology has detection built on the following major point from last two years of trading. As described in the yearly hot projection report.
- High in April 2015
- Low in February 2016
Natural ratio's
Moonphase: 29.53
Moonphase /4 = 7.382 (while 0,382 is a fibonacci ratio)
This ratio pointed at the 11th of January 2017 which may unfold as a high (point A in the middle) since point C has been set at 0,886 ratio lower.
If we make this up to one, so 7,618 than we are on 16th of January 2017 as a time trigger to short for a minor correction. Please find this method of roottime calculation in the hot projection report of 2017.
However Nikkei and Crude oil are on a balance level, and can thus change into a new bull leg up for now reason (as shorts will forced to cover), it is likely to go lower coming week of trading. TradingEcology has a short viewpoint on markets if the 490 level in 'AEX will hold as a firm resistance coming week. With sounds risk management a breach below 486,40 (horizontal dotted line) will open short opportunities towards 481,60 and 478,10. All scenarios should be rewiewed under if and then conditions, never be rigid in thinking and stay flexible in execution. Manage your risk wisely, and remember be long volatility when vola is low!
With some uncertainty TradingEcology has an overnight short position in 'AEX and a profit target in short target zone between points D and D (481,60 - 478,10) with stop at 490.
this position is in accordance with common sense risk management criteria
Best to your trading.
With kind regards,
Trading Ecology
Trading natural patterns unnaturally perfect
AEX a few hours before Trump speach (11th of January 2017)With a valid long in 15mi tf, it would be possible to encounter a bull leg up this afternoon and extended in time to Friday (up).
Will short covering be triggered at 490,10 ?
On higher timeframes we are looking for short entries.
AEX low of 11th Feb 2016 a medium point in major cyclesLooking at the bigger picture to check reality.
A line from low in 9th March 2009 (point X) crossed line AB exactly on half the way. Look how important iimportant that associated pricelevel (312) was in end of 2009 and beginning of 2010. The line with a ratio 2.13 (a 4th square 0.14% root of 1.618) projected the high in 2015. As it was easy the halfway point 50% level was the low of 11th February 2016. So to speak an important point in medium cycle.
The low from 2009 is approximately 120 points to the 312 line (which is 1/3 of 360degree cycle).
Half a cycle is 180 and if you add 312 you reach a top at 492.
In general I am not sure if market is making a medium-term top in very end of 2016. It could be reasonable to say buyers will dry up and profit taking could lead to a correction in price. Heads up for shorts!
P.S. following ratio applied to this scenario:
square 0.14% root of 0.5 = 0,707
1.707/2 = 0,85035
0.60*0.60=0.36 which is 9number and 360degree cycle number
0.666 number of the sun
1.066 is 1.136 a fibo. ratio
AEX at what price?As euphoria rules to show and profits in long are made easy last 14days of trading.
Although last two days of trading the aex market seems quite flat, we have had a 5point gain in this afternoon trading.
With short signals in end of day for AEX, RDSA and ING I am looking for good entries for shorts!
AEX: how strong are the bulls?Markets are still flooded with money and liquidity is everywhere.
It might be possible that longs are taking profit for the next run up. In this scenario, Point D could far to way.
I assume to short the AEX based on time at 15th of December, lets just look if price goes up till that time!
