NAS100 – Price Enters Uncharted TerritoryZone 1: New All-Time High
This zone marks where the US session closed yesterday, establishing a new all-time high. Price has never traded this high before, putting the market in uncharted territory. Momentum remains strong, but with no historical structure above, traders should watch for signs of exhaustion or potential profit-taking as price explores this fresh high ground. A clean break and hold above the zone would confirm continued bullish control, while early rejection could spark a minor pullback.
Zone 2: Asia Session Open
Price opened around this level during Monday’s Asia session before accelerating sharply higher. The strong reaction from this area confirms it as an intraday demand zone and the first meaningful layer of support if price retraces. Should the market revisit this level today, traders will be watching closely for renewed buying pressure to defend the short-term uptrend.
Zone 3: Previous All-Time High
This zone marks last week’s US session close and the previous all-time high before the breakout. It now serves as deeper structural support, the base of the current rally. As long as price holds above Zone 3, the broader bullish structure remains intact. A clean break below, however, could suggest fading momentum and open the door for a deeper correction toward the prior range.
Today's sentiment
The Nas100 continues to trade with a cautiously positive bias after last week’s sharp rebound. Optimism is underpinned by improving risk sentiment, strong momentum in mega-cap tech, and renewed hopes that the Federal Reserve could adopt a more accommodative stance as inflation pressures ease. The partial US government shutdown, however, has delayed key macroeconomic releases, leaving markets “flying blind” and amplifying the potential impact of every new headline.
Geopolitical developments also remain in focus: progress in US–China trade dialogue has helped calm nerves, but investors are aware that tensions over technology exports and global supply chains could resurface quickly.
For traders, the setup favors tactical flexibility. Tech remains the market’s driving force, but with valuations stretched and volatility likely to spike on sparse data or political noise, short-term positioning and disciplined risk management are essential. In short, sentiment is constructive, but fragile.
Trade ideas
Will the second scenario come true? |October 17 2025Based on the evidence, price action, and fundamental news, it seems the second scenario is about to play out.
The Nasdaq index turned positive after recovering its losses when Trump responded “No” to a question about whether he would maintain the heavy tariffs on China.
From today, my outlook is bullish until the previous high gets hunted — after that, I’ll reassess whether we’re likely to see further downside or if the bullish outlook should remain.
If market conditions shift and a continuation of the downtrend becomes more likely, we can take a solid short position next week to catch the move.
But for now, my bias is bullish, and the second scenario will likely play out.
If price reaches the second high I marked in blue, we’ll probably see a reaction from that zone.
If I open a trade, I’ll share it with you.
NASDAQ 100 (NDX)-The Grand Super Cycle Journey🧠 The Grand Super Cycle Journey of NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
Here's a comprehensive, narrative-style description of NASDAQ 100 (NDX) INDEX based on Elliott Wave Theory , Smart Money Concepts (SMC) , Fibonacci Retracements/Extensions , Price Action , and Fundamentals across Super Cycle , Macro , and Micro Waves 🔍📈:
🌱 Super Cycle Wave 1: The Birth of Tech (1986–2000)
The journey begins with Wave 1 , ignited by the early tech boom — Microsoft, Intel, and the rise of Silicon Valley 🚀. This impulsive leg spans over a decade, culminating in the dot-com bubble peak in 2000.
🔹 Smart Money Insight: Early accumulation started in the '80s, followed by massive markup into the 1990s. Retail entered late, leading to the euphoric climax in 2000.
🔹 Price Action: Parabolic rallies, breakouts through historical resistance, ending in a massive overextension.
🔹 Fundamentals: Era of growth, innovation, low inflation, and initial internet adoption.
🌪️ Super Cycle Wave 2: The Great Correction (2000–2009)
The bursting of the dot-com bubble triggered a complex correction labeled as W-X-Y. This 9-year structure ends in the 2008–09 financial crisis low. The market retraced to the 0.382 Fibonacci level , a classic deep correction in a strong long-term bull market.
🔸 Smart Money: Distribution at the top → manipulation through global uncertainty (9/11, housing bubble) → reaccumulation near the 2009 lows 🧠📉.
🔸 Fundamentals: Enron scandal, 9/11, housing collapse, Lehman bankruptcy — a decade of fear and instability 🏚️.
🚀 Super Cycle Wave 3: The Exponential Phase (2009–2029)*
The most powerful leg — Wave 3 — is unfolding, targeting an eventual 2.618 Fibonacci extension (~85,000) . This wave is subdivided into 5 Macro Waves , each composed of 5 Micro Waves . Here's how the structure progresses:
⚙️ Macro Wave 1 (2009–2012)
Started at the GFC low, this wave marked the beginning of recovery, finishing with 5 orange micro waves .
🟠 Micro Waves: A clean 5-wave impulse showing the early stages of structural strength.
📊 Price Action: Break of structure (BoS) confirms bullish reversal.
🏦 Fundamentals: QE1/QE2, low interest rates, tech stabilization, birth of FAANG era 💻.
📈 Smart Money: Institutions started accumulating in late 2009–2010, reflected in tight consolidations and sharp rallies.
🔁 Macro Wave 2 (2012)
A brief and shallow correction within the bullish context — a classic bullish flag in terms of price action. Quickly ended with higher lows.
🧠 SMC: Short manipulation phase to shake weak hands.
📉 Price Action: Pullback respected prior structure — no trend break.
💥 Macro Wave 3 (2012–2021)
This was the largest and most explosive wave , extending over 9 years and forming 5 purple micro waves.
🟣 Micro Waves: Clean impulsive structure, confirming a classic Elliott wave fractal.
💡 Fundamentals:
Rise of cloud computing
Mobile-first economy
AI, semiconductors, and social media explosion
COVID-19 crash and rebound — the fastest recovery in history
🔹 Fibonacci: No deep retracements — sign of a healthy, powerful wave 3.
🧠 Smart Money: Deep accumulation during COVID crash → massive expansion post-March 2020 📈.
🧱 Macro Wave 4 (2021–2022)
A healthy correction that reset the structure — completed around the 2022 low. This wave maintained market structure integrity.
🔻 SMC: Liquidity sweep of previous lows + mitigation of demand zones.
📊 Price Action: Range-bound, bearish to neutral.
🌍 Macro Headwinds:
Interest rate hikes
Inflation fears
Global instability (Russia-Ukraine, energy crisis)
🧬 Macro Wave 5 (2022–2029) – Now Unfolding*
This is the final thrust of the Super Cycle Wave 3 , subdivided into 5 micro waves (current count in progress):
🔸 Micro Wave 1 ✅
Initial rally from 2022 lows, showing strong impulsive behavior.
🧠 Smart Money: Confirmed shift from reaccumulation to expansion.
🔸 Micro Wave 2 ✅
Pullback formed higher low — acted as final reaccumulation.
🔴 Micro Wave 3 – In Process (2025–2026)
This is expected to be the strongest wave within Macro Wave 5, projected to peak near 36,000 (2.618 extension of micro 1–2).
📈 Price Action: Aggressive higher highs and shallow pullbacks.
🧠 SMC: Expansion with little liquidity left below — institutions pushing price up.
💡 Fundamentals:
AI hypergrowth
US tech dominance
AI chips, quantum computing, tokenization
Renewed bullish risk appetite 🌐
🟠 Micro Wave 4 (Expected 2026–2027)
A corrective wave likely to retest the macro structure — forming a flag or triangle.
📉 Price Action: Sideways to downward chop, retracing 0.382–0.5 of wave 3.
🧠 SMC: Inducement setup before final rally.
🌍 Macro: Possible geopolitical or monetary tightening phase.
🔵 Micro Wave 5 (Expected Top in 2029)
The final leg of Macro Wave 5 and Super Cycle Wave 3. Expected to top near 85,000 , a 2.618% Fibonacci extension of Super Cycle Waves 1–2.
🎯 Final Parabolic Blow-Off
📊 Price Action: Euphoria, exponential rally, low-volume melt-up
📈 Smart Money: Final distribution phase — retail FOMO peaks
🧨 Fundamentals: Mania phase — “everything AI/metaverse/tokenized” narrative, record valuations, IPO booms.
🔮 Looking Beyond: Super Cycle Wave 4 (Post-2029)
Once the 85K target is met, a multi-year correction is expected — possibly deep and drawn out. Historically, Wave 4s retrace 0.236% to 0.382% and take years to unfold.
🧠 Expect:
Systemic debt pressure
Currency shifts
Economic reset themes
Potential Fed policy overcorrection
Liquidity crunch
🌧️ Super Cycle Wave 4 may retest previous demand zones around 30–36K.
📚 Final Thoughts
Our analysis represents an extraordinary blend of Elliott Wave fractals , institutional behavior (SMC) , and macro-fundamental alignment . We are in the late phase of a historical Super Cycle rally — but Wave 3 still has room to run 📈.
✅ Wave Count Aligned
✅ Fibonacci Extensions Respected
✅ SMC Structure Intact
✅ Macro-Fundamentals in Sync
📌 2025–2029 could be the final push before a generational correction. Smart investors must watch for distribution signs post-36K 📊.
"Trust the waves, not the noise." – FIBCOS 🌊
📘 Disclaimer: This is a structural, educational market outlook. Not financial advice. Please do your own due diligence and risk management.
#FIBCOS #ElliottWave #SmartMoneyConcept #MarketAnalysis #NASDAQ #XAUUSD #SuperCycle #MacroTrend #SmartMoney #Fibonacci #PriceAction #Commodities #Stocks #TechnicalAnalysis #LongTermOutlook
NAS100 H4 | Bullish Bounce from Key SupportNAS100 is falling towards the buy entry at 24,804.95, which is an overlap support that is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to the upside.
Stop loss is at 24,423.43, which is a pullback support.
Take profit is at 25,500.67, which lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
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Nasdaq Enjoys CPI, But How Much More?Nasdaq still trending up, enjoying the today's lower than expected CPI data. If it ride towards the upper line of the channel, it likely to get rejected. I don't see any reason for an upside breakout at the moment. Setup is for today and Monday, I will deactivate my order after Monday.
Risk/Reward: 2.28
NASDAQ 100 Analysis !
The current price of the NASDAQ is $26,127, and my projection points to $32,000 in the coming months, entering 2026. This analysis is based exclusively on price action, following Al Brooks' methodology, through the technical analysis developed by Josias Baltazar, one of his closest students.
Use this projection as a reference for your decisions, whether in stocks or wherever you deem it appropriate.
I'll leave this analysis here... and I'll return in the future to see how it played out.
NasdaqHello traders! Last Friday, we had a major selloff in the 25,000 region, which quickly sent the Nasdaq crashing by more than 4% in just a few hours. In technical analysis, 24,000 is a price that has been broken previously and is now being tested as weekly support. If we expand this movement, we project a target price of 26,000, continuing the upward movement. The technology sector remains promising with advances in artificial intelligence, and we have no news of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Happy trading!
NO CLEAR BIAS: AWAITING PRICE ACTION SIGNALS TO DECIDESTUDY THE POINTS MADE ON THE H1 ALONGSIDE WHAT THE DAILY CHART INDICATES
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NAS100 Why I'm Watching for a Countertrend Short on US100The NASDAQ (US100) has pushed aggressively into fresh all-time highs, tapping into a key liquidity zone where buy-side liquidity sits above previous swing highs. 📈💧
Price has extended without any meaningful pullback, suggesting we may soon see exhaustion and a corrective move. As we approach the end of the week, institutional traders often rebalance or close positions, which can trigger short-term retracements. 🏦🔄
If price breaks structure to the downside, I’ll be watching for a counter—
residing in a premium zone to—butter to the downside swings—for a potential countertrend—but—
🛑 Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
NASDAQ100 | Wave 4 Correction Within ChannelPrice has respected a clean ascending channel, completing a clear 1–2–3 wave sequence. We’re now seeing a corrective pullback that aligns with the wave 4 region — testing the midline support of the channel. As long as this structure holds, the broader wave (3) remains intact.
Scenarios:
Scenario A: If the lower channel and wave 4 region hold → potential continuation higher toward wave 5 and the upper boundary near 26,600–26,800.
Scenario B: If the channel support breaks → deeper correction likely toward 25,800 before any potential resumption of trend.
Reversal From ATH, Momentum Turns Cautious Reversal From ATH, Momentum Turns Cautious
The NASDAQ reversed from its all-time high and remains below 26,175, signaling short-term bearish momentum.
➡️ Below 26,175: Bearish bias toward 25,890 → 25,700 → 25,340.
➡️ Above 26,245: Bullish continuation toward 26,500 → 26,850.
Pivot POINT: 26,175
Support: 25,890 · 25,700 · 25,340
Resistance: 26,500 · 26,850 · 27,000
USNAS100 remains bearish while below 26,175, but a 1H close above 26,245 would confirm a bullish breakout toward higher targets.
two scenarios for NQ on October I currently have two scenarios for NASDAQ, and both are bearish.
Scenario 1: The downtrend has already started. If we see a pullback around the 0.5 Fibonacci level, I’ll look to short again and keep stacking sell positions
Scenario 2: NASDAQ might retest the previous high — the one where the sharp drop started — move sideways for a while, and then start another leg down.
P.S. Success depends on proper risk management.
#NASDAQ #NASDAQ100
NAS100Bearish Divergence formed in 1hr
SL (Stop Loss): 26,315
This is just above the recent swing high — it protects your trade if the price keeps rising instead of dropping.
Entry: 25,895
This is the suggested sell (short) entry level — price is expected to move down after breaking below this level, confirming the reversal.
TP (Take Profit): 25,485
This is the target level, where you can close your trade for profit if the price falls as expected.
US100 – Buyers Take Full Control as Market Breaks Out4H Technical Zone Analysis
Zone 1: Monday’s All-Time High
This zone marks Monday’s all-time high, where the market initially paused after a strong impulse move. The breakout above this level signals clear bullish dominance, but as price extends into record territory, this zone now serves as a potential pivot area. Should price revisit it, traders will be watching for whether former resistance can act as support — a successful retest here would confirm the breakout’s strength and validate continued upward momentum.
Zone 2: Tuesday’s Demand Base
This area represents the level where buyers decisively regained control during Tuesday’s session, driving a sharp rally that broke above prior highs. It reflects the origin of the latest bullish leg and highlights strong demand from institutional participants. As long as price holds above Zone 2, intraday sentiment remains bullish and pullbacks into this area are likely to attract renewed buying interest. A sustained move below, however, would suggest momentum exhaustion and open the door for a deeper retracement.
Sentiment Overview
The Nas100 surged yesterday, driven by a wave of optimism following encouraging headlines on both the macro and geopolitical fronts. Markets rallied after reports of a “constructive” round of US-China trade talks in Malaysia, which eased fears of renewed escalation and reignited risk appetite across global equities. At the same time, a softer-than-expected US CPI print reinforced hopes that inflation pressures are moderating, prompting renewed speculation that the Federal Reserve could adopt a more dovish tone once government operations resume.
Tech and semiconductor stocks once again led the advance, supported by strong earnings and continued enthusiasm around AI and digital infrastructure. The index pushed into fresh record territory, underscoring how dominant the tech sector remains as a driver of sentiment.
Heading into today’s session, the tone is cautiously constructive. The market is buoyed by improved trade relations and stable inflation expectations, yet traders are aware that valuations are stretched and macro visibility is limited due to the ongoing US government shutdown. With key data releases delayed and the index at all-time highs, volatility could spike on any unexpected headlines or shifts in tone from policymakers.
NAS100Trading forex based on strong fundamentals is beneficial because it allows investors to make informed decisions grounded in real economic data rather than speculation. By analyzing key indicators like interest rates, inflation, GDP growth, employment, and geopolitical stability, a trader can anticipate currency movements driven by macroeconomic forces. This approach helps identify long-term trends and reduces emotional or impulsive trading, offering more consistent and sustainable profits. In essence, good fundamentals turn forex trading from a gamble into a strategic investment rooted in economic reality.
NSDQ100 relief rally led by mega-cap tech.Nasdaq 100 Trading Summary
Tech sentiment has rebounded strongly after upbeat earnings from Amazon and Apple, reversing much of yesterday’s selloff.
Amazon (+13% pre-market): Cloud revenue up +20% y/y, fastest growth since 2022 — a major boost for one of the year’s weakest Mag-7 names.
Apple (+2% pre-market): Forecasts 10–12% revenue growth this quarter (vs +6% expected), driven by stronger iPhone demand.
US futures: Nasdaq +1.2%, S&P 500 +0.65%, erasing most of Thursday’s losses.
Yesterday’s decline stemmed from AI-capex worries after Meta (-11.3%) and Nvidia (-2%) fell on spending and China-sales concerns. Those fears are easing as investors refocus on strong earnings and resilient demand.
Other Headlines
Universal Music beat estimates on subscription revenue, supporting consumer-discretionary sentiment.
Beverage giants continue to struggle — $830 bn in market value lost since 2021 amid shifting habits and tariffs.
UK retail: Growing backlash against chatbots may be hurting sales by billions, highlighting limits of AI adoption.
Outlook
Nasdaq 100 looks set for a relief rally led by mega-cap tech.
Focus today: follow-through buying in Amazon and Apple, stabilization in AI names (Meta, Nvidia), and overall positioning into month-end and key US inflation data later in the day.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.






















