XLE XES Bearish Pattern in Play (Bearish)Clearly there is a Bearish Divergence on XLE and XES on RSI and PPO
On Weekly time frame as well, there is negative divergence
Risk to Reward clearly favors Short Opportunity
XLE trade ideas
Iron Condor XLE 13 May 2022XLE 13 May 2022
The current implied volatility is at 36.3%/year
So that converted into daily is 2.3%
Since we are in need of the open price for the highest accuracy, I am going to take the current price
which is 79.3(you can also wait for the opening price and take +- 1.8 points from the open candle value)
So based on that our channel for today is going to be compressed with a probability chance of 85% within
TOP 81.1
BOT 77.5
From fundamental point, today we have no big volatility news that can impact our asset.
At the same time the current values are expected to be sidemarket/bullish.
At the same the weekly expected channel top and bot values for DIA were
TOP 335
BOT 314
XLE update - 12/05/2022upside focus remains in wave (3), expecting more upside near 109.58 (wave (3) = 2.618 * wave (1)).
High Conviction Long Term Trades Print MoneyPuts on XLE for me is a very high conviction long term investment. When you make one of these, it's good to have a reason for why you are doing it, so that you stick with it and the market doesn't shake you out with a little swing. So write yourself a few reasons *why* you are taking the trade.
1) I want to hedge my portfolio from more downside risks
2) Insider traders are selling this XLE stock at an ATH, and every single time they have ever sold it even almost this much, it crashed substantially
3) Commodities are a bad investment because they only go down over the long term. The market overestimates the importance of these short term supply chain issues and underestimates the capacity for free markets to solve problems over time.
4) Jim Cramer said to buy XLE, which is historically a very good indicator that it will crash down.
5) Just from the chart alone, we can see that *every* rally this asset has ever had, has always been faded. Don't tell me that this time is different, because that is what they said when they bought ARKK at $130 each before watching it bleed to death on high inflation and rate hikes.
6) The elliot wave structure of the XLE bubble seems to be peaking out
7) I see several retail traders pretending that XLE is a "safe" hedge for their portfolio. I don't think that retail seems to realize that XLE actually has historically maintained a VERY tight correlation with the stock market almost always, and that when the SPX and other major stocks start to crash this will absolutely bleed over into the energy sector.
If you have enough conviction, it's good to take a bet on it. Bet on your beliefs! Bet against me if you must, but at least have some damn conviction and don't capitulate at the first sign of weakness. Thanks for playing.
Weekly Prediction 9-13 May XLEXLE Energy Sector
9 - 13 May
The weekly VXXLE> Volatility Index for XLE Energy Sector
Implied = 38.6
In this we have to standard it for weekly session
38.6 / sqrt(52-> 52 weeks in a year) = 5.35%
My historical product is telling me with 1.2x coficient that the expected movement for this week
E Volatility = 38.93 / sqrt(52) = 5.4%
With this data, from my calculations, when EV > VIX, there were a 82.7% chance that the market
stay within the bottom and top created with the ranged from the E Vol
So for next week this range for us is going to be
TOP - 87.4
BOT - 78.5
Covered Calls in EnergyHow high will every go? I sold covered calls in XLE at 80 strike. This is a good position to be in. If it stays above 80 until mid June will buy back in. If below 80 will collect most premium and roll to July.
Jim Cramer Says: Buy Energy Stocks! Jim Cramer got paid by OPEC to tell retail traders to buy energy stocks. Everyone knows that COMMODITIES ONLY GO DOWN. Energy stocks which produce commodities are in a bubble, and their prices are utterly absurd. Buying puts at market open.
Thanks for playing. I'm short on Cramer.
*yEs. I am aware wave 4 overlaps. It's a wick, not a close. So I don't care. Thanks.
USOIL-XLE-Bear SetupBreak down in structure looking to short down to 62ish level, previous tl and 1.618 extension off first move down.
XLE compressionEnergy sector very strong.
Ascending triangle and Consolidating right below 80.50
I will take a long position here targeting $84.00 if above $80.50
Energy politically drivenIt's not about data anymore. But if it was - demand shrinking, prices overinflated. It has to go down eventually
XLE , LONG With todays early positive price action follow-through on the on the market indices, particularly SPY, I am finally able to enter a few longs and this is one of them I picked .
We also have a wedge drop / wedge pop setup here which are my favorite way to enter a trade if the instrument is in a daily uptrend .
Trade management :
Stop loss - 71.99 vs 21 ema
Initial TP - 77.32 ( 2R ) , will sell 33% here if trade works .
Is Energy Losing its Mojo?Energy stocks have led the market all year, but now there are potential signs of fatigue.
This chart shows the tight ascending pattern in the SPDR Energy ETF along with its 2018 high of $79.42. Prices attempted to move through the level this week but failed to hold. Was it a failed breakout?
Next, consider the candles above $79.42: two dojis followed by a large bearish outside day. That may be viewed as a reversal pattern. MACD has also been falling.
Third, yesterday's drop (the sharpest decline in five weeks) landed prices at the trendline that’s been support all year. Any follow-through could break the trend and trigger profit taking.
Finally, geopolitics have favored energy. But changes in the global situation could change that environment – especially with the Federal Reserve increasingly committed to slowing inflation. When lots of “good news” is priced in, it can also increase the risk of a pullback.
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XLE FROM SWING TRADE TO POSITION TRADE ON LONG 66.58This is the weekly chart I am using on XLE see stoch side ways above 80%
above all MA see 100 day turning up and 50 went thru 200 very nice long term long . Vol not bad more buying selling nice higher lows higher highs
order add breaks above 80.
Target 90 or higher
XLEI think XLE price will experience resistance around $83/85. It's possible price will keep climbing to $126. But I think it's more likely that Energy takes a breather, allows Tech stocks to regain some ground, while energy winds up for a final leg up.
XLE update -18/04/2022looking for more upside near 89.5 to complete wave (3), wave (3) = 1.618*wave (1) @ 89.45.
$SQ $XLE $AAPL $ES watchlist for week 4/18 - 4/22Watchlist -
$SQ Calls > 127.5 | Puts < 120
$XLE Calls > 80 | Puts < 79
$AAPL Calls > 171.25 | Puts < 165
$ES! Calls > 4390.5 | Puts < 4351.25
XLE: Potential Call opportunity unfolding NOWSupport line is based on relatively recent action. Resistance line is built on years of data. Unclear if it will proceed as expected. I will wait for a clear break before committing.
Energy Sector (XLE) breakout ?The Energy Sector ETF had been in a bull run since 4Q2021, and March was the month it stalled. Instead of breaking down, it appeared to be coiling for a launch, and this week looks like it launched a breakout of the triangle it is trapped within.
Crude oil broke above USD100 this week, and this supports the XLE imminent rally, roughly expected for at least another 10%.
Technicals RPM and MACD are turning up again...
XLE (Long energy)Conditions: Trend following trade. Energy is on fire.
Entry: Market (7/04)
Stop: 10%.
Target: Let it ride, buy the dips.
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Current (general) preferred entry ticker conditions and entry signals are either.
a) Reversion to mean from overextension, providing there has been evident support from historical price action and/or a bullish / bearish pintail or rejection evident by an engulfing candle immediately after the supposed support/rejection.
b) Oscillators (Daily/Weekly Stoch as well as the Average Sentiment Oscillator) all providing confluence with a trend line / support level .
Maintain 2:1 RR, use retracements as much as possible. If over extended and sufficient confluence and I'm at my computer, consider a market order.
Establish confluence of support/resistance , trend, oscillators, congruent candles (pintail or engulfing reversal).
XLE LONG 67.74Look daily chart pretty beautiful strength higher lows daily stoch look good great pattern.
Weekly wow looks great side ways again shows relative strength. Target 75-80 area
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Ascending Triangle in the XLEThe Macro trends of 2022 are no secret to any of us. Sky rocketing inflation and the war in Ukraine have lead to soaring energy costs around the world. As a result, Oil has seen a period of extreme volatility, reaching a high of closing high price of 129.44 on March 8th. As a result, the XLE has followed suit and is up about +30% year to date. Exxon, the largest holding in the XLE, reports earnings on April 29th and has expressed that the anticipate setting record profits. Buy the rumor?
The XLE appears to be forming a nice Ascending Triangle, which could be suggesting a bullish continuation. The Ascending Triangle isn't a particularly strong pattern from a statistical perspective with only about a 60% chance of realizing the bullish continuation. Take it with a big grain of salt, but there is also a very slight Hidden Bullish Divergence on the MACD. Nevertheless, it warrants paying attention to as a potential swing trade.
A lot will depend on what Oil does, and the fact that XOM and CVX are reporting earnings on the 29th muddies the waters a bit. However, it could offer a nice opportunity for a shot in the dark trade to the upside looking for a pop the upside in advance of the earnings. Maybe something like an OTM Call spread around the .30 delta in XLE 30 days out or so...
