About meI am using my publications to serve as a long term personal record of my trades management/logic and as method to help me review, processes and lessons along my trading journey.
- Sharing my actual trades.
-Nothing said is advice to buy or sell .
APR 6th QQQ lost 21 ema , April 11th SPY follows and closes below 50 sma. Both have potential stage 4 downtrends setting up . Shorts technically allowed now for me with both indexes below their 21 emas + LL/LH structure ....May 17 , Market is still RTM
This is a countertrend trade that I took today around an hour before close .
Some points :
Hammer that has above average volume is a potential bottom , its wick is a good indicator of support ... I used it vs stop
Todays bullish engulphing shows more potential reversal signs
I also see a potential double bottom lower low major trend reversal set up that is...
This is completely contrary to my normal TQQQ buy , but looking for a push out of the tight bear channel where the bulls take short term control
Plan to sell 1/3 at 1R and then see if I can run the balance .
****Note: Low probability trade here *** Basically doing the exact opposite of the price action rules here .
1R PT - 31.50
So , I see a LOT of ideas on TWTR with price targets to the moon or above the $54.20 buyout price , and that is contrary to my understanding of buyouts . I am no pro, but I think that there seems to be a lot of misunderstanding about what to expect with TWTR going forward based on some ideas posted . So, I wanted to share some things about my understanding of the...
Similar to todays XLK short this too I would also consider this a C trade.
1) The stop is far ,
2) Missed the little pop at the end of day , could have had a slightly better stop vs entry distance ( I did enter in final 30 min per
my rules , however ...)
3) We have not cleared the range, big bars are common in ranges .
4) DB , MTR , a...
I would consider this a C trade.
1) the stop is far ,
2) missed the little pop at the end of day , could have had a slightly better stop vs entry distance ( I did enter in final 30 min per my
rules , however ...)
3) we have not cleared the range, big bars are common in ranges .
4) LL , DB , MTR could be a possibility , would have rather...
Arguably I missed an entry on the 2nd for this after getting stopped but it was actually intentionally done as I felt to uncertain as to the effect that the Fed rate change would have on this and wanted more evidence . Now I have it and I think it is a reasonable time to try again here .
I decided that since my stop is far on this one, I would shoot for 1.5R...
Re- entered WEAT on todays soft close above my ema's
Concerns here would be some gap risk but we do see some nice range contraction on chart and I think that the tape is probably on our side here , saw some pretty massive level 2 time and sales actions before the fed announced today on my related holds (UGA and DBC) that I found very interesting too .
Looking to hold this to Sept, will exit before the deal closes. Will be a risked based decision .
Normally I always always use stops but that does not apply for this trade . Instead I have done this one differently . TWTR is weighted at 9% of my account . My logic is that is that this allows the deal to fall through and if the share price collapses 50% of...
I am nicknaming the 2-10 year yield "Icarus".
Pushing back towards to the sun with haste it would seem .
Kind of interesting how this is off the media radar today .
Oh my wings! See my two wings! How I love to fly!
-The final words between: Icarus, and his father~
Long on BNO yesterday .
Range contraction looks good , volume contraction and that pop , consecutive green bars ...
Entry - 30.75
Stop - 29.7
PT - 32.85
* Entered just before yesterdays close . Additional Risk is the FOMC meeting coming up next week , that will probably bring volatility to the markets , gap risk ect ect.
Re entered here based on the positive price action we saw today and yesterday .
Commodities vs SPY and QQQ still showing very low correlation , yesterday was contrary to this though , the whole market was affected by the pulling tides .
Today was a pretty important day for DBC imo though because of its expedient recovery after that gap down ...
This is one trade that I honestly lost interest in because it kicked my butt, so far ;) , and then I missed the wedge drop on Friday busy at work. But in hindsight, that's just emotions and my regency bias making excuses. Simply put , I should have entered Friday on the wedge drop plain and simple at work or not ....
So, that being said, I decided that if I was...
Well title says it all lol , another close under the 50 and significant moving averages but hidden support . Hourly range around the 50 sma here ....
Need to take out the wizard down at 176 area , he seems to be running low on mana though one side will win eventually ...
Put my stop a tiny bit higher this time around ...
Although I am not allowed to take longs in stock market now with the SPY and QQQ under their 21 emas , I have decided to try modifying my rules to still allow for commodities related longs .As long as they maintain overall low correlation to the market , I think its very reasonable to try out some commodities long bets even the market in RTM mode ( red trading...
Trying this again .
Stage 4 decline
Recent Death cross
series of LL
and market is in RTM ( red trading mode ) both spy and qqq below 21 ema's on daily .
After being stopped out today in the am , price was not able to close strong, closed near the low of the daily range .
Below the 10/21 ema's , 200 ema and 50 sma.
PT - 165.9 ( de risk )
Question was this : Even though SPY and QQQ are currently in red trading mode meaning no buying stocks for me , can I enter new trades on commodities funds ??
My long term test from 2008 to now determined this
2008 to current date SPY vs DBC
Regression coefficient beta == -7.88
Correlation == 0.28
meaning long term negative/low correlation
2020 Jan 1st...
SPY and QQQ both below their 21 emas and markets in red trading mode for me .
SPY - Lower lows and lower highs confirmed , lost of 50 sma , below 21 ema .
Potential stage 4 downtrend setting up ?
PT 426.66 .Sell half and go BE
Market is in red trading mode , SPY and QQQ now both below their 21 emas.
XLY , Slightly stronger than XLY but we still were not able to follow through on out HH , so far at least .
We also have LL's though too . Stage 4 downtrend looks plausible at this point , might be forming a range ?
PT 168.92, sell half and go BE on stop