Trade ideas
XLF - Dead CatfishNew banking regulations in EU and elsewhere combined with QE punch bowl drying up is taking wind out of the sails of the Financials.
XLF appears to be struggling at the mid-line of the regression channel again!
Potential 4th failed attempt to cross midline unfolding. 
Similar chart pattern last July into Sept, which resulted in a ~10% sell off.  
Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern at recent top.  
Several nearer and longer term price gaps to fill to the downside: 
Nearer-term gaps 
 @ $37.75
 @ $37.20 and near 50-day MA
 @ $36.01 small but there
Several more gaps a bit farther south.
Most indicators rolling over/sick on the daily.  XLF near ATHs but the ADX looking like a dead catfish that cant swim anymore...just floating with the current...and the current is taking it down off the regression channel mid-line  sooner than most expect.
Target = gap fill near 50-day MA and then a kiss off the 200-day if we get some action to the downside.
Short Oct 15th Puts with $35 dollar strike.  
Not financial advice.
More Upside in Financials?The SPDR Financial ETF has been snoozing for exactly three months, and now could be coming back to life.
Several patterns stand out on today’s chart. First and foremost is its breakout above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).
Next is the tight volatility squeeze immediately before the surge. That suggests price could be ready to move again following a healthy period of rest. Relative strength has also improved (highlighted by our  Smart Relative Strength  script).
Looking back further to June 18 and July 19, we find double-bottom support around $35. XLF rebounded sharply following both moves.
Companies within the portfolio have also performed well.  Goldman Sachs , for example, hit a new record high on Friday (its first in two months). Less flashy but important names like  American International Group  also beat estimates.
In conclusion, financials are one of the most overlooked stories this year. They  exited their subprime bear status  in February. Now, after a few months of consolidation, their run to new uncharted territory may be resuming.
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$XLF Financials failing at resistanceThe XLF ETF which tracks the financial sector of the U.S market has been battling to break resistance at $37 and the 50 day moving average. With the push lower in yields, fundamentally this is generally quite negative for banks and financial firms as this substantially decreases their profit margins.
We could potentially retest the bottom of the range at $35.00 and if that breaks then $33 could be in site which is around the 200 day moving average.
look this guys xlf EXAMPLE
Say u ahrt at 38 off daily stoch rolling over and it made a lower high hitting resistance 
ok so know shrt off daily why hitting r1 and stoch rolling over. what i do next is watch my weekly and I wait for that stoch break 70-68% weekly stoch on bottom then i can add why trend down 
ok drop to 35.18 daily stoch on bottom so u take 3/4 off the short keep 1/4 on
know she runs up daily stoch and boom stops at 50 day, but as she is running up look weekly stoch when it hit 50 day ma weekly stoch heading down and little tip stoch wide apart very neg, so it said stay shrt once it did not break thru add back on the 3/4 took off.  Dont get scared out position  this is for swing trading 
 
XLF STAYING SHORT @ 36.60 smallDaily say wants to go higher but again look vol bad and under the 50 day MA.
Ok again daily stoch weekly bottom
see how the daily going up and weekly heading down that is called a head fake rally 
why weekly holds more weight its heading south TRUST THAT WEEKLY
it never lies.
TA on IWM shortIWM  a short I am not in this just showing TA
Look daily heading down on bottom should get a dead cat 
bounce to the 50 day 225 support 213.58 -211.54
they break we go 206.55 200 day 
Know look weekly stoch heading south trend is down
Ok lets go back to daily we can get a rally dead cat bounce 50 day 
and fail why as long as that weekly stoch stays heading down while the daily
stoch rises it will fail. Trust that weekly just when it rallies reduce shares on short and trail the rest 
then when ready add back to short. Very simple process
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