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Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund

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The Credit Cycle - Free Wealth is Over?Idea for Macro: - Financial sector selling off heavily. - While it's early to call a bear market, the exhaustion gap at an all time high is a reasonable signal for market reversal. - XLF, XLE and FAAMG have been holding up the broader markets at this high... Cracks appearing? Underlying conditions: - Institutions will invest based on 18 months into the future (Druckenmiller). - There are 3 relevant possibilities for the banks: (1) Inflation is sticky, interest rates will be raised in the future, within 18 months. This actually increases the banking sector's profitability, but the price is declining because they have been speculated above valuations. (2) Inflation is transitory, interest rates will not be raised, and we will have negative real rates. This will hurt the banks' profit margins. This is a possibility due to the 40 year demand-push deflation the US has been in (see Oil/CPI). (3) More importantly, the economy will decelerate (deflationary). Liquidity components of the Fed B/S have been decelerating and global credit impulse (lending) has gone negative. No more easy lending, less loans, meaning less earnings for the banks. Investors know this and are exiting the overheated trade. Either way for inflation, global liquidity and global credit impulse are turning down, so the Long Volatility trade seems to be ideal. Why did global risk assets rise to such insane levels? Credit impulse - easy lending. Now that supply of sugar is gone. Only one thing left that can happen. GLHF - DPT
AMEX:XLFShort
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
XLF Forecast XLF broke out of multi year resistance level at $29~ After multiple failed attempts. Typically resistance levels become support zones after prices goes thru them. I’m watching current trend for any weakness that could indicate possible move to retest $29. On weekly chart PPO EMAs have crossed, but week is not over yet. It’s 3rd time this year this cross attempted to happen. If week closes with EMAs being crossed, it would indicate weakness of the trend’s momentum. Interestingly $29 is currently at .5 fib level since 2020 lows.
AMEX:XLF
by Otradehouse