Kaiser Reef Ltd - I'm Hyper bullish on thisShowed this to a friend and he said, "oh a small cap?"
Yes, somehow this is still a small-cap. Luckily for me. I have taken my position. If the price stays depressed over the coming weeks and months I will definitely be adding. No technical analysis, all fundamental and all of the fundamentals sound great to me (I am not in the Company and am definitely not a shill - not a paid one anyway :).
Firstly, the market cap is only AUD41.7m today. Crazy. Why crazy?
- They have AUD23 million on hand. So, take that off their market cap and their total operation is only valued at AUD18.7 mil.
- So what do you get for that? You get two gold processing plants (one in Vic and one in Tasmania). Together they have over 1500 tons per day processing capacity. I just read about a mine in Peru that got an estimate of USD89 mil for a 1500 tons per day gold processing capacity. Obviously, that is more remote. But even if the cost was only 33% of that (USD30 mil), it would still be more than the current Market Cap of Kaiser. Also, permitting, environmental approvals? Could take several years to install a plant elsewhere. Kaiser's are permitted and producing gold dore bars now.
- You get three highly prospective mines plus a few exploration projects (one that I want to see more about in the future; it is a gravity low, that is next to a magnetic high, on top of the gravity low at the very center is an historic gold mine. There is likely more gold there, how much? Will have to wait a few years to find out more about that one).
- All three mines (Henty, A1, and Maldon) are very high grade - A1 averaged 25 grams of gold per ton historically and they are commencing mining of high-grade ore this year after years of processing secondary grade ore.
- -Maldon reserves will be established over time. Maldon's historic production was 1.7Moz at an average of 28g / ton (including 300,000 ounces at 187g/ton AVERAGE from Nuggety Mine!). They are already compiling some really attractive drilling samples to establish reserves and extend the strikes. I am very interested to hear what they find underneath the historic workings of Nuggety Mine. There is underground infrastructure in place, but some work is needed to get it into production. ETA... not sure. Comes with a 120,000 ton/ pa producing production mill.
- Henty (newly acquired in March 2025) historic production of 1.9Moz averaging 8.9g / ton. Henty produced just under 25,000 ounces of gold in 2024 (avg grade 4g/ton). Additional exploration and expansion planned. Comes with its own 330,000 ton / pa producing production mill.
- If they even get both mills up to 50% capacity, with low-grade ore, this stock is going way way up. Back of the envelope using very conservative numbers: (capacity 550,000 t/pa / 2 = 275,000ton/pa x 4g per ton = 1,100,000 grams / 31.103 (grams per troy ounce) = 35,366 ounces pa). 35,366 ounces at $4800 an ounce is 169.75m gross revenue. Maybe a 15% net profit percentage (pretty conservative in this environment where Goldman Sachs just upgraded their target for gold in 2025 to USD3300/oz) = 25.464m pa net. If they have a PE ratio of 20 the market cap would be AUD509.275m which is 12.2 times higher than the current Market Cap. That is without any acquisitions, any gold price rises, adding any additional gold reserves (which they will add soon). If they only net 10% net profit the Market Cap should (at a minimum expand to AUD339.5m or 8.1 times the current Market Cap. 36,000 ounces is unachievable? That is the target the exec team set for the Company in 2025... not 2027... but soon. That is even without Maldon in production.
Can nobody do math? Is nobody willing to take a risk on a very prospective looking operation? Some people will.
I also like the exec team. They seem to;
- Have a nose for a good deal,
- Are not about buying over-valued assets (like a lot of the gold mind mergers you hear about these days. Big players buying fully-priced mega-mines with huge debt leverage. They will never survive any price drops and will end up being sold off at fire-sale prices by creditors),
- They have a real sense of urgency in getting things moving. Buying working assets at fire-sale prices, with a near-term plan (that is tracking) to steadily improve production, cash-flow, mine grades, mine life etc.
Anyway, I am going on. Do your own research. I shouldn't be writing this. It may mean I cant add much more to my position at low prices. I'm having some luck with gold miners - check out New talisman Gold on NZX (I still think it will go up 5 x from todays price when they start steady production).
