AVAX/USDT — Symmetrical Triangle Approaching Breakout?Overview:
The daily chart shows AVAX forming a symmetrical triangle (converging trendlines) since the Dec–Jan peak. Price is now testing the upper resistance trendline (~26.1 USDT) — we’re at a critical point heading toward the apex (late September). Volume behavior and a confirmed daily candle close will be key to determining the breakout direction.
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1) Pattern Description
Pattern: Symmetrical Triangle — characterized by lower highs (descending resistance line from the peak) and higher lows (ascending support line from the April bottom). Price range is narrowing → volatility dropping → usually leads to a strong move when the pattern resolves.
Context: The broader trend before the triangle was bearish (drop from ~55.8). Symmetrical triangles can be neutral but often resolve in the direction of the prior trend — technical confirmation is essential.
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2) Key Levels (from chart)
Upper resistance trendline / critical level: ~26.10 USDT (red dashed line), current price ≈ 25.3 USDT.
Major resistance targets: 30.74, 35.62, 44.18, 53.70 – 55.80.
Ascending support trendline: around 18–22 USDT depending on timing.
Structural low: 14.665 USDT (chart low).
(Values estimated visually from chart — verify with live data before trading.)
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3) Bullish Scenario (if breakout upward)
Bullish Trigger
Daily close above descending trendline (~26.1) with strong volume → breakout confirmation.
Preferably supported by bullish technical indicators (RSI, MACD bullish crossover, rising OBV).
Targets
Step targets: 30.7 → 35.6 → 44.2 → 53.7 (partial profit-taking recommended).
Measured move theoretical target:
− Height ≈ 55.800 − 14.665 = 41.135.
− Added to breakout point (~26.108) → theoretical target ≈ 67.24 USDT (for reference, not guaranteed).
Risk Management
Stop-loss: daily close back below breakout trendline or under nearest swing low (e.g., conservative SL < 21–22 USDT).
Strategy: scale in — partial entry before breakout, add after confirmation. Monitor risk/reward closely.
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4) Bearish Scenario (if rejected / breakdown)
Bearish Trigger
Rejection at upper trendline + bearish daily candle (and/or rising sell volume) → drop to ascending support.
Breakdown confirmation: daily close below ascending trendline with strong volume.
Targets
Initial drop to ascending support ~18–22 USDT.
If breakdown continues → possible retest of 14.66 USDT low.
Risk Management for Shorts / Cut-loss
SL for shorts: daily close above resistance (~>28 USDT) or above fake breakout highs.
Beware of bull traps — volume confirmation reduces risk.
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5) Practical Trade Plans (example)
Conservative Long: Wait for daily close > 26.1 + strong volume → enter 50% position; add after retest. Targets: 30.7 / 35.6. SL under retest zone (~21–22).
Conservative Short: If clear rejection at upper trendline → short toward lower trendline. SL above recent high (~28).
Range Trading: Buy near lower trendline, sell near upper trendline until breakout confirmed.
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6) Risk & Confluence Checks
Broader market/Bitcoin sentiment: AVAX is often correlated, which can amplify moves.
Supporting indicators: check volume, RSI, MACD, EMA(50/200) for confirmation.
Watch for false breakouts — confirm with volume + retests.
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7) Summary
> AVAX is forming a Symmetrical Triangle. Critical resistance at ~26.1 USDT — daily close + volume will decide the next move. Valid breakout → step targets at 30.7 / 35.6 / 44.2 (measured move theoretical ~67.2). Rejection / breakdown → support at 18–22 and possible drop to 14.66. Manage risk with confirmation, stop-loss, and partial profit-taking.
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