AAPL: Q1 2026 Target and Updated Outlook BULLS🍏 Apple Outlook: Oct 2025 – Q1 2026
🧠 Status and Tape Read. Apple (AAPL) has entered the $4 T market-cap club on Oct 28–29 2025, propelled by strong iPhone 17 sell-through and Services momentum. Shares pushed toward the $270 area intraday before easing, marking a powerful reversal from mid-year consolidation. Near-term, positioning is elevated into Thursday’s print; options imply ~±4% move on earnings.
📈 Path into Q1’26. Our base case shifts from a prolonged correction to a higher-low / buy-the-dip regime: dips toward the mid-$240s–$250s should attract sponsorship unless Services rolls over or China iPhone demand fades. A constructive tape through Q1’26 hinges on (1) Apple Intelligence engagement metrics, (2) iPhone 17 replacement/Android switcher rates, and (3) regulatory overhang.
📰 What’s New and recent headlines
🏆 Apple hits $4 T market value for the first time, joining Nvidia and Microsoft. Drivers: iPhone 17 traction and Services strength; stock up sharply since spring.
🗓️ Earnings set for Thu, Oct 30 (after-close); Street looking for growth in revenue/EPS; Services eyed >$100 B annual run-rate.
🔼 Loop Capital upgraded AAPL to Buy with $315 PT ahead of the move, citing iPhone cycle acceleration.
🧾 “Who Bought 8 Million Shares?”
🧺 JPMorgan Large Cap Growth Fund (SEEGX) increased its Apple position by ~8.15 million shares to ~32.9 million shares, per latest fund tracking.
⚙️ Catalysts Shaping Apple’s Stock Price in 2025–26
🤖 AI Integration & Apple Intelligence — Strength: 9/10
Rollout of on-device Apple Intelligence and upgraded Siri remains the core narrative into 2026. Look for user engagement datapoints and third-party app integrations at/after earnings. A positive read-through would validate the iPhone super-cycle argument.
💡 Services Segment Growth — Strength: 8.5/10
Consensus expects Services to push past a $100 B annual clip; durability watched versus regulatory pressure (DMA in EU, global app store scrutiny). A sustained >13% YoY growth print keeps multiple support intact.
📊 Gross Margin Expansion & Cost Efficiencies — Strength: 8/10
Management has guided 46–47% GM for FQ4 (tariff headwind embedded). Mix shift to Services + component deflation support FY26 margin resilience.
📱 iPhone 17 Product Cycle — Strength: 8/10 (↑ from 7.5)
Early sell-through outpacing prior gen in the U.S. and China within first days; the iPhone 17 (incl. “Air”) is the incremental driver restoring unit momentum.
🥽 Vision Pro & Hardware Diversification — Strength: 7/10
Next-gen devices + Apple Intelligence tie-ins create optionality; still niche near-term but adds ecosystem gravity.
💵 Capital Returns — Strength: 7/10
$110 B buyback authorization remains a floor; watch cadence vs. stock at ATHs and post-print cash deployment commentary.
🌏 Supply Chain & Trade Policy — Strength: 6.5/10
China exposure/tariffs remain a swing factor; Apple has been absorbing some costs rather than pushing through prices on key models.
⚖️ Regulatory & Antitrust Pressures — Strength: 6/10
DMA compliance and global app store cases could trim Services take-rate; monitor any remedial changes called out on the call.
📈 Macro & Rates — Strength: 5/10
“Higher for longer” limits multiple expansion; any disinflation/soft-landing upside would expand P/E support.
🥊 Smartphone Competition — Strength: 5/10
Android OEM velocity still high in EM; Apple’s cycle needs sustained switcher share to outrun.
💼 Earnings Set-Up: FQ4 reporting Thu Oct 30 2025
📅 Consensus into print:
• Revenue: ~$101–104 B (TipRanks ref: $102.2 B)
• EPS: ~$1.74–$1.82 (TipRanks ref: $1.78)
• Gross Margin guide: 46–47% (company indication)
• Services: watch for >$100 B annualized pace confirmation
• Implied move: options pricing ~±4%
🎧 Watch items on the call: Apple Intelligence activation/MAUs, iPhone 17 channel inventory, China mix, Services take-rate headwinds (EU), GM puts/takes (tariffs), cap-return cadence.
🎯 Street Positioning & Targets
🔼 Loop Capital: Buy, PT $315 (Oct 20/21 2025).
📊 General take: Many houses remain Overweight; focus turning to 2026 EPS power and AI monetization path.
🧭 Tactical View 0–3 Months
📈 Into/after print: Choppy but constructive. Chasing at ATHs is risky; prefer buy-on-weakness zones near $248–255 with stop discipline. A bullish guide/Services beat could sustain a breakout; a light AI engagement update or China wobble likely gets faded back into the mid-$250s.
⚠️ Risk-case: Regulatory headline or guide below mid-single-digit growth could quickly compress P/E and retest the $240s.
🚀 Bull-case: Clean beat/raise + AI usage KPIs → re-rate toward $290–300 into holiday.
🏁 Quick Milestone Recap
🥇 $4 Trillion Market Cap achieved on Oct 28–29 2025, making Apple the third public company (after Nvidia, Microsoft) to reach the level; iPhone 17 momentum and Services strength cited across coverage.
Trade ideas
The Phantom TradeThe Phantom Trade .... In the spirit of Halloween ...
NOTE – This is a post on mindset and emotion. It is not a trade idea or strategy designed to make you money. My intention is to help you preserve your capital, focus, and composure — so you can trade your own system with calm and confidence.
You missed it.
The setup you’d been watching for days, maybe weeks finally played out.
Clean. Precise. Exactly as planned.
But you weren’t in it.
Maybe you hesitated.
Maybe the trigger didn’t line up perfectly.
Or maybe you just weren’t at your desk.
Either way, it’s done.
But your mind doesn’t let it go.
You replay it.
Frame by frame.
You check where you would have entered, where you would have exited.
You tell yourself it’s “reviewing.”
But it’s not.
It’s rumination.
A mental loop that feels productive but keeps you stuck in what can’t be changed.
You’re not trading the market anymore… you’re trading your memory of it.
And every replay reinforces the belief that you should’ve done better.
The body joins in too.
Tight chest. Restless legs.
An urge to make it back .
That’s the real danger.
Because the next trade isn’t about opportunity, it’s about redemption.
And redemption trades rarely end well.
The skill isn’t in ignoring the regret.
It’s in recognising it for what it is: the echo of unmet expectation.
Ask yourself: what am I actually trying to fix here?
The missed trade… or the feeling of not being enough?
The point here is:
Reflection helps you grow.
Rumination keeps you stuck.
Learn to tell the difference.
That’s where real mastery begins.
LightWhenever I prepare an idea to publish, well... I don't prepare.
As you may already have realized, my "blog" is not about trading / investment analysis. It is an attempt of mine to describe the indescribable. To smell the un-smellable (like a Greek song said).
My first ideas were an attempt of mine to reach out to others to spark conversation.I wasn't trying to give out any meaningful insight, because I had none. Now I think I have information to share, but Socrates would not agree with me, he is certain that he knows nothing . Since I cannot / don't want to be like Socrates, I will be like Diogenes the Cynic, I like him more... His views on philosophy and the world have grown on me.
And speaking of grown...
Apple has grown. From a seed of a Macintosh in a wooden box, into to a computer that would destroy Orwell's 1984, and then to a pair of smart glasses that would become the dystopia they tried to avoid.
Traders have also grown, most only in their age and appetite. The minds stood still.
And prices have grown higher and higher, but lighter than ever before.
Many analysts develop indicators in reverse. They want profit and shape indicators in a way to satisfy this growing appetite. The appetite of the man who isn't satisfied with the few, cannot be satisfied with the many. I have done this myself in the past.
There are two ways this chart is misleading.
First: Price on top of Bollinger Band can be interpreted as a "strong push", and at the same time an "overextended price". The indicator by itself is not misleading. It is us who don't analyze it properly.
Second: While this indicator calculates a statistical deviation (a pure mathematical idea), it fails in the act. Statistical deviation of trending prices cannot be calculated with ordinary moving averages. Don't listen to me, listen to the scientists from whom I found this, research it yourselves. A secondary problem is log scale.
A portion of traders, whom I call gamblers have grown light minded, it seems. They don't want prices to ... slide backward into oblivion, just as (we / they) have finally begun to see the light.
And just like gamblers, lighter my charts have apparently become. I simply try to shed some light into the darkness of technological / artificially untelligent societies.
Since my publications of indicators have been buried in the darkness, now it is time for them to shine, in simple terms.
And so, fixing analysis needs many steps. I show again the original statistical band:
Our data lives in a log-scaled world of increasing proportions, not increasing amounts. So, we re-shape our/Bollinger's mathematics to survive in this wild world of massive numbers. We then conclude to the log-scaled band:
One of the major problems however has not been fixed. Mathematicians dictate that classical moving averages don't apply in "Time Series Data" i.e. price history. Statistics don't work in trending data.
To fix this issue I have constructed a simplified MA model and applied it in multi-timeframe price data using PineScript.
The MA-Model is not a moving average (it doesn't describe an average price). It is instead one of the infinite trend-nullifying lines, from the base of which statistics are calculated. The band is the same 2-sigma area like the classic Bollinger.
What is the conclusion of this chaotic story, I hear you say...
It is either too simple or too complex.
The simple explanation is that history repeats itself.
Going back to 1998, we see the following:
Price divergences have become apparent from statistics. On the first arrow of each one, price reaches a 2-sigma deviation. On the second arrow of each divergence, price fails to make a second deviation jump, price instead returns to mean.
It is as if prices move in two steps. First they define a trend from a 2-sigma event (either bullish / bearish), then they follow up on the trend, while reverting to mean.
Now in 2025, in a larger timeframe, Apple seems to crave bitter sweets.
The 1998-2000 bubble is dwarfed from this massive chart.
Apple has done it. From the bottom of the world and a sub 1% market share, to conquer the world. It is the most loved brand. Sells the most popular smartphone. Designs the most powerful chips. Shapes future trends. And ironically, this very idea is typed on a modern Apple device.
You have reached the top, when everyone is sure that you will live forever.
And I mean everyone, including me who hypocritically votes against them.
The drop will come when a single person changes their mind.
Be wise. Be safe. Be aware.
-Breen
P.S. I will follow up this idea with some interesting charts on SPX in the following days.
APPLE Set To Fall! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
APPLE looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 270.26 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 262.56
About Used Indicators:
The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Is APPLE $APPL ready and primed for a correction?Apple BSE:APPL had a great run so far in the past few weeks. It has also been running inside a channel which has pushing the price upwards. However, now it has just completed an extended W pattern. In fact 2 of them got completed exactly at the same level.
The current price level is something that needs to eb watched very closely. When W patterns complete, markets tend to have a correction. Market is still bullish and is still inside the channel so even if the correction comes, we will have to be careful with the shorts.
If the market stay bullish from this point above at least on daily/weekly basis then we have an upper FCP zone where it can reach possibly take a correction from there.
In all cases, we must remember to wait for confirmations and obviously manage the risk.
Apple Inc (AAPL) – All-Time High Break and Demand Structure Apple continues to display one of the strongest technical structures among large-cap equities. The price action has respected multi-year demand zones and continues to advance in a controlled parabolic channel, signaling strong institutional order flow and long-term accumulation behavior.
1. Multi-Year Demand Structure
Each pullback into a demand zone since 2019 has produced a strong bullish reaction, confirming active institutional defense at key points of interest (POIs). The structure showcases consistent higher highs and higher lows, a textbook uptrend aligned with long-term exponential moving averages and anchored VWAP support.
The most recent reaction off the weekly demand near $130 - $135 marks another strong reaccumulation phase. This region acted as a liquidity pocket where large orders were likely absorbed before initiating the next expansion wave.
2. All-Time High Break and Price Discovery
Price has now decisively broken above the all-time high, entering a fresh price discovery phase.
Such breakouts often attract momentum buyers and algorithmic inflows, but historically, Apple tends to consolidate briefly above new highs before continuing its trend.
The current projection suggests a measured move toward $208 - $210, which represents approximately +40% from the breakout level. This target is derived from the vertical measured range of the prior accumulation base and Fibonacci extension alignment.
3. Indicator Confluence
Key indicators are showing strong trend confirmation:
EMA Cluster: All major EMAs are stacked bullishly and acting as dynamic support.
VWAP: Anchored VWAP from the previous high sits below price, confirming that institutional cost basis remains positive.
SuperTrend: Flipped bullish on the weekly timeframe, signaling trend continuation.
MACD: Crossed bullish above the zero line, aligning with the macro bullish momentum shift.
Together, these indicators confirm that price structure is healthy, with momentum and liquidity aligned for continuation rather than exhaustion.
4. Smart Money and Institutional View
Apple’s current behavior fits the smart money model of accumulation → manipulation → expansion. The manipulation phase occurred during the deep retracement in 2022–2023, where retail sentiment turned bearish while institutions accumulated within the demand blocks.
The ongoing breakout represents the expansion phase where smart money distributes into higher liquidity as price advances.
5. Long-Term Outlook
If Apple continues to respect the ascending demand trendline and sustains above the all-time high zone, the next major liquidity cluster lies near $208 – $210.
Beyond that, a long-term projection suggests that a full cycle expansion could carry price toward the $260 – $270 region over the next few years, especially if macro conditions remain favorable for large-cap tech.
Key Levels
Current Price: 147.27
Support / Demand Zones: 135.00 – 140.00 and 120.00 – 125.00
Short-term Target: 208 – 210
Long-term Projection: 260 – 270
Invalidation: Sustained close below 130.00
Summary
Apple has officially entered a new phase of price discovery following its all-time high breakout. The multi-year demand structure, strong institutional flow, and technical indicator confluence all point to sustained bullish momentum.
The first major target zone remains $208 - $210, while the long-term projection sits near $260+, supported by macro bullish sentiment in the Nasdaq and strong fundamental resilience.
A brief retest of the breakout zone could occur, but dips into the 135–140 area would likely be absorbed aggressively by institutional buyers, maintaining the long-term uptrend.
APPLE First correction signals in 7 months start to emerge.Almost 1.5 month ago (September 19, see chart below), we gave a buy signal on Apple Inc. (AAPL), which recently hit our $273 Target:
This time we go back to our long-term perspective and view Apple on the 1W time-frame, as the Bullish Leg (green) since the April 07 bottom, is approaching the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 4-year Channel Up.
The previous Bullish Leg peaked just below the 1.236 Fibonacci extension, so we can't rule out one final push to round $285 but on the long-term, a technical pull-back is favored.
The 2023 Bullish Leg eventually corrected on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), hitting its 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at the same time. Even the smaller April - July 2024 Leg pulled-back to he 0.5 Fib.
All of those Channel Up tops have been also met with a 1W RSI break above the 70.00 oversold level, which is something that hasn't taken place yet. Similarly the 1W MACD hasn't started to reverse on the levels of most of previous tops.
In any case, we expect to see Apple hitting $236 at least on the long-term, which is its 0.382 Fib and marginally below the 1W MA50.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
AAPL Pullback: 10-EMA Bounce with RS Line at New HighAnalysis:
▪ Price has pulled back to the 10-EMA, presenting a potential entry point.
▪ Closing range at 60%, indicating controlled consolidation rather than aggressive selling.
▪ Excellent relative strength compared to the broader market.
▪ Relative Strength (RS) Line has been hitting new highs consistently over the past several weeks, signaling outperformance and bullish momentum.
Trade Idea:
▪ Long Entry: Near current levels or on a bounce from 10-EMA.
▪ Stop Loss: Below recent low or 10-EMA for risk management.
▪ Target: Recent high at $277.
▪ Risk/Reward: Aim for 1:2 or better; monitor for volume confirmation.
APPLE Next Buy Zone Apple has been one of the lagging stocks I’ve analyzed in previous posts, where I discussed its price action as a major underperformer compared to the broader indices and other large-cap stocks.
As a mega-cap company, Apple is undeniably one of the key drivers of both the index and the overall market. If Apple begins a correction, there’s a strong likelihood that the index itself will trade lower as a result.
Following the completion of a complex combination correction (W–X–Y–X–Z), where the final Z-wave forms a triangle, we can apply trend-based Fibonacci extensions to project the contractionary phases in the market based on prior structure. Since this is a corrective wave, once it completes, price action should rotate back into the broader uptrend, currently surpassing the previous high by roughly $17.
I also believe the Elliott Wave count here identifies the current structure as the top of Wave 3. The recent push into new highs appears to be a three-wave corrective structure (A–B–C), with the 1 to 1 trend-based Fibonacci extension suggesting an expansion target near $277 — potentially marking an earnings high and a “sell-the-news” opportunity or, at minimum, a take-profit zone.
If Apple starts to break down from current levels, I’d be closely watching for a move back toward the previous most-traded zone, shown as the blue Volume POC on the chart. This would align with Elliott Wave theory, which states that Wave 4 cannot overlap the high of Wave 1. Since the first correction in this structure appears to be a flat A–B–C, Wave 4 could potentially be deeper and more pronounced.
A pullback toward the $227 level would be particularly attractive to me as a long-term investment opportunity in Apple.
AAPL in Wave ((5)) to New All-Time High as Nested PatternApple (AAPL) has surged to a new all-time high, extending an impulse wave that began from the April 2025 low. Wave ((4)) of this larger impulse concluded at $239.49, as clearly illustrated on the 45-minute chart. Now, wave ((5)) advances higher in the form of a nested impulse structure. Rising from the wave ((4)) base, wave (1) completed at $250.65 before wave (2) pulled back to $244.01. From there, the stock nested upward again, with wave 1 ending at $265.29 and wave 2 correcting to $255.43. Apple then extended further in wave 3, which itself unfolds as an impulse of lesser degree.
Within wave 3, wave ((i)) topped at $259.67, followed by a dip in wave ((ii)) to $257.55. Wave ((iii)) pushed higher to $271.41, and wave ((iv)) retraced to $267.11. Wave ((v)) of 3 should finish soon, leading to a pullback in wave 4 before the uptrend resumes with renewed strength.In the near term, the bullish outlook remains intact as long as the pivot low at $244.01 holds. Any dips are likely to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing sequences, setting the stage for continued upside. This Elliott Wave progression underscores persistent momentum, with nested impulses reinforcing the primary trend and positioning Apple for additional gains ahead.
AAPL QuantSignals V3 Weekly 2025-11-01AAPL QuantSignals V3 Weekly 2025-11-01
AAPL Weekly Signal | 2025-11-01
• Direction: NEUTRAL | Confidence: 57%
• Expiry: 2025-11-07 (6 days)
• Strike Focus: $267.50
• Entry Range: $0.15
• Target 1: $0.30
• Stop Loss: $0.08
• Weekly Momentum: NEUTRAL (-0.95% 1W)
• Flow Intel: Bullish (Low P/C Ratio) | PCR 0.48
• Max Pain: $267.50 (-0.9% vs spot)
• 🔴 HIGH RISK WARNING: Use only small position size due to lower confidence and high uncertainty.
⚖️ Compliance: Educational commentary for QS Premium members only. No financial advice.
🎯 TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Direction: BUY PUTS
Confidence: 57%
Conviction Level: LOW
🧠 ANALYSIS SUMMARY
Katy AI Signal: NEUTRAL with bearish bias (Target: $267.76, -0.84% from current) - Katy predicts downward movement to $267.76 with stop at $274.09, indicating slight bearish pressure despite neutral confidence rating.
Technical Analysis: Bearish EMA alignment confirms downtrend; RSI oversold at 29.9 suggests potential bounce risk; stock trading below recent highs with 2-week negative performance (-2.39%); key resistance at $274.09 (Katy's stop level), support near max pain at $267.50.
News Sentiment: Mixed - Wells Fargo raised price target to $300 (bullish), but general market news focuses on other tech stocks; lack of strong AAPL-specific catalysts creates uncertainty for weekly movement.
Options Flow: Contradictory signals - extremely bullish flow with PCR 0.48 (heavy call buying), but max pain at $267.50 favors downward pressure; unusual volume at $298 calls suggests institutional optimism beyond weekly timeframe.
Risk Level: HIGH - Conflicting signals between Katy's bearish target and bullish options flow create elevated uncertainty; low conviction due to neutral primary bias and weak composite score (-0.10).
💰 TRADE SETUP
Expiry Date: 2025-11-07 (6 days)
Recommended Strike: $267.50
Entry Price: $0.15 - $0.15 (Use exact mid price from table)
Target 1: $0.30
Image
QS Analyst
APP
— Yesterday at 8:45 PM
(100% gain from entry)
Target 2: $0.45 (200% gain from entry)
Stop Loss: $0.08 (47% loss from entry)
Position Size: 2% of portfolio (low conviction trade)
⚡ COMPETITIVE EDGE
Why This Trade: Aligns with Katy AI's specific price target ($267.76) near max pain level ($267.50), creating confluence despite contradictory flow signals.
Timing Advantage: Oversold RSI (29.9) may provide temporary bounce, but bearish weekly trend and EMA alignment support downward move into expiration.
Risk Mitigation: Tight stop loss and small position size account for low conviction; strike selection at max pain provides gravitational pull support.
🚨 IMPORTANT NOTES
CRITICAL WARNING: Strong conflict between Katy's bearish target and bullish options flow (PCR 0.48)
This is a low-conviction trade due to neutral composite bias and weak signal strength
Consider smaller position size or avoiding trade entirely if risk tolerance is low
Monitor for any AAPL-specific news catalysts that could override technical signals
Thursday/Friday gamma risk increases as expiration approaches
📊 TRADE DETAILS 📊
🎯 Instrument: AAPL
🔀 Direction: PUT (SHORT)
🎯 Strike: 267.50
💵 Entry Price: 0.15
🎯 Profit Target: 0.30
🛑 Stop Loss: 0.08
📅 Expiry: 2025-11-07
📏 Size: 2.0
📈 Confidence: 57%
⏰ Entry Timing: N/A
🕒 Signal Time: 2025-11-01 23:45:23 EDT
🔴 HIGH RISK WARNING: Use only small position size due to lower confidence and high uncertainty.
Apple- Passive Selling or More Accumulation?A Bottom and Accumulation
The stock formed a top near 260 in December 2024 and a bottom near 169 in April 2025.
After a sharp bounce of 25% from the lows in just 4 days, the stock consolidated for about 76 sessions in a range from 193 to 214- roughly a 10% range. This created a well-defined base structure, suggesting a period of accumulation.
Breakouts with Volume
The range broke out with strong volume expansion in the beginning of August, confirming a shift in market structure from accumulation to markup. Since then, the stock has maintained a steady uptrend, experiencing only brief pullbacks of about 5 to 6 percent- typical of a healthy trending phase.
Passive Selling at Highs
Currently the stock is trading near its previous highs of 260. It broke out of this resistance and then pulled back below this level. Passive selling is seen around 260 level which means sellers are stepping up, trying to absorb buyers. and the next few sessions will reveal whether this zone turns into a distribution area or simply a retest before continuation.
Trendline Buyers
Pullback buyers are watching the up trendline support which has held the previous shakeouts at two occasions (in Sep and Oct). As long as the stock sustains above this trendline, trend-following participants are likely to continue adding on dips, providing structural support to the uptrend.
Two Scenarios
A sustained move above 260, supported by strong volumes, would reaffirm bullish control and open the door for further upside momentum. Conversely, a break below the trendline could trigger long liquidation from those who bought above 260, leading to broader profit booking and a possible retracement toward 240 or even 225.
What do you think about the stock?
Will it fail the current breakout or sustain?
Do comment below 💬
#For educational purpose only, not a buy/sell recommendation.
Can AAPL Earnings Fuel Its Rally?Apple (AAPL) extended gains to a record high, briefly pushing its market capitalization past the USD 4 trillion mark as strong iPhone 17 demand and a broad tech rally buoyed sentiment. Early data from Counterpoint Research showed iPhone 17 sales outpacing the previous generation by 14% in the first 10 days across the US and China, underscoring resilient consumer demand despite higher price points. However, signs of moderating lead times and delayed AI feature rollouts may temper momentum ahead of Thursday’s earnings, where investors will focus on iPhone sustainability and progress in Apple’s AI strategy.
From a technical perspective, AAPL is approaching the resistance at 127.2% Fibonacci Extension at 275. A break above this level may prompt a further rise toward the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension at 290. Conversely, a retracement may prompt a retest of the support at 245.
By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness
Shipping, Freight, and Logistics in World Trade1. The Importance of Shipping in Global Trade
Shipping is the lifeline of international trade. Around 90% of world trade by volume is transported by sea, making maritime transport the most cost-effective and energy-efficient mode for moving large quantities of goods over long distances. Without global shipping, the modern economy would collapse—no country could sustain its industries or consumer demand without importing raw materials, energy, and manufactured products.
The shipping industry supports the global supply chain, linking developing nations that supply raw materials with developed economies that manufacture and consume finished goods. For instance, crude oil from the Middle East is transported to refineries in Asia and Europe, while electronics from East Asia are shipped to markets in North America and Africa. This interdependence underscores shipping’s role as the engine of globalization.
2. Understanding Freight in International Trade
Freight refers to the transportation of goods in bulk by various modes—sea, air, rail, or road. Freight services determine how products move from one point to another and how efficiently they reach their destinations. Freight is typically divided into three main categories:
Sea Freight – Used for large and heavy shipments, ideal for commodities such as oil, coal, grain, machinery, and vehicles. Containerization has revolutionized sea freight, enabling efficient and secure movement.
Air Freight – Offers the fastest mode of delivery, mainly for perishable or high-value items like electronics, pharmaceuticals, and luxury goods.
Land Freight (Rail and Road) – Connects ports to inland cities and neighboring countries, playing a vital role in regional trade and last-mile delivery.
Freight costs significantly affect product pricing and competitiveness in the global market. Efficient freight management reduces transportation costs and delivery times, making products more affordable and accessible.
3. The Role of Logistics in World Trade
Logistics refers to the planning, coordination, and management of the movement and storage of goods throughout the supply chain—from production to the final customer. It is the strategic process that integrates shipping and freight into a seamless operation.
Key elements of logistics include:
Transportation Management – Selecting the best mode of transport and optimizing routes.
Warehousing – Storing goods safely before they are distributed or sold.
Inventory Management – Ensuring supply meets demand without overstocking.
Customs Clearance – Handling documentation and compliance with international trade regulations.
Last-Mile Delivery – Delivering goods from distribution centers to consumers.
Modern logistics rely heavily on technology, including GPS tracking, warehouse automation, and data analytics, which provide real-time visibility and improve decision-making.
4. Evolution of Global Shipping and Logistics
The modern logistics industry has come a long way since the days of wooden ships and manual cargo handling. The container revolution in the 1950s, introduced by Malcolm McLean, transformed global trade. Standardized containers allowed goods to be loaded, shipped, and unloaded efficiently across ships, trains, and trucks, drastically reducing costs and time.
The digital revolution of the 21st century further enhanced logistics efficiency. Artificial intelligence, blockchain, and Internet of Things (IoT) technologies now streamline supply chains, track shipments in real time, and reduce human error. E-commerce giants like Amazon and Alibaba have set new standards in global logistics, emphasizing speed, reliability, and transparency.
5. Major Global Shipping Routes
World trade depends on critical maritime routes that connect producers and consumers. Some of the most vital shipping routes include:
The Suez Canal (Egypt): Links Europe and Asia via the Mediterranean and Red Seas.
The Panama Canal (Central America): Connects the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, crucial for trade between the Americas and Asia.
The Strait of Malacca (Southeast Asia): One of the busiest routes connecting the Indian and Pacific Oceans.
The English Channel and Gibraltar Strait: Important for European trade.
Disruptions in these routes—such as the Suez Canal blockage in 2021—can cause massive delays and losses across global supply chains, showing how fragile yet essential maritime networks are.
6. Key Players in Global Shipping and Logistics
Several major companies dominate international shipping and logistics:
Shipping Lines: Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, and COSCO handle millions of containers annually.
Freight Forwarders: DHL, FedEx, and Kuehne+Nagel provide end-to-end logistics solutions.
Port Operators: DP World, PSA International, and Hutchison Ports manage the world’s busiest ports.
Ports such as Shanghai, Singapore, Rotterdam, and Dubai’s Jebel Ali are global trade hubs, facilitating the import and export of goods worldwide.
7. Challenges Facing the Shipping and Logistics Industry
Despite its importance, the global shipping and logistics industry faces several challenges:
Supply Chain Disruptions: Events like the COVID-19 pandemic, wars, or natural disasters expose vulnerabilities in global supply chains.
Rising Fuel Costs: Shipping is heavily dependent on oil, and fluctuations in fuel prices directly affect freight rates.
Environmental Regulations: Pressure to reduce carbon emissions has forced the industry to invest in cleaner fuels and green technologies.
Port Congestion: Overcrowded ports lead to delays and increased costs, especially during peak trade periods.
Geopolitical Tensions: Trade wars and sanctions can reroute or restrict global shipping flows.
8. Green and Sustainable Shipping
Sustainability has become a key priority for the maritime industry. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set targets to reduce carbon emissions by 50% by 2050. Innovations such as LNG-powered ships, wind-assisted propulsion, and electric container vessels are being developed. Companies are also investing in carbon offset programs and exploring hydrogen fuel as a cleaner alternative.
Green logistics also focus on reducing waste, optimizing routes, and using eco-friendly packaging materials, contributing to a more sustainable global trade ecosystem.
9. The Future of Global Logistics
The future of logistics lies in automation, digitalization, and resilience. Emerging technologies are reshaping the industry:
Artificial Intelligence (AI): Enhances demand forecasting and route optimization.
Blockchain: Provides secure and transparent documentation for international transactions.
Autonomous Ships and Drones: Expected to revolutionize cargo transport and delivery.
Smart Ports: Use IoT sensors and data analytics to streamline operations.
Moreover, the rise of regional trade agreements and nearshoring (relocating production closer to consumers) is redefining supply chains to reduce risks and costs.
10. Conclusion
Shipping, freight, and logistics are the invisible engines powering world trade. They connect nations, support industries, and ensure that goods flow seamlessly across borders. As globalization deepens and technology advances, the logistics sector continues to evolve, balancing efficiency, sustainability, and resilience.
However, the challenges of environmental impact, geopolitical instability, and supply chain vulnerabilities demand innovation and cooperation. The future of global trade depends on a smarter, greener, and more adaptive logistics network—one capable of sustaining the demands of an interconnected world while protecting the planet for generations to come.
AAPLHow to become successful in forex and stock trading:
1.Master fundamentals and technical analysis.
2.Build and follow a solid trading plan.
3.Apply strict risk management (4–6% rule).
4.Stay disciplined—control fear and greed.
5.Record and analyze every trade.
6.Focus on high-quality setups only.
7.Diversify across assets and markets.
8.Keep evolving—study, adapt, and grow daily.
A few important steps for creating robust and winning StrategiesAs the title says, I want to share knowledge & important insights into the best practices for creating robust, trustworthy and profitable trading Strategies here on TradingView.
These bits of information that my team I have gathered throughout the years and have managed to learn through mostly trial and error. Costly errors too .
Many of these points more professional traders know, however, there are some that are quite innovative for all levels of experience in my opinion. Please, feel free to correct me or add more in the comments.
There are a few strategic and tactical changes to our process that made a noticeable difference in the quality of Strategies and Indicators immediately.
Firstly and most importantly, we have all heard about it, but it is having the most data available. A good algorithm, when being built NEEDS to have as many market situations in its training data as possible. Choppy markets, uptrends, downtrends, fakeouts, manipulations - all of these are necessary for the strategy to learn the possible market conditions as much as possible and be prepared for trading on unknown data.
Many may have heard the phrase "History doesn't repeat itself but rhymes well" - you need to have the whole dictionary of price movements to be able to spot when it rhymes and act accordingly.
The TradingView Ultimate plan offers the most data in terms of historical candles and is best suited for creating robust strategies.
___
Secondly, of course, robustness tests. Your algorithm can perform amazingly on training data, but start losing immediately in real time, even if you have trained it on decades of data.
These include Monte-carlo simulations to see best and worst scenarios during the training period. Tests also include the fundamentally important out-of-sample checks . For those who aren’t familiar - this means that you should separate data into training sets and testing sets. You should train your algorithm on some data, then perform a test on unknown to the optimization process data. It's common practice to separate data as 20% training / 20% unknown / 20% training etc. to build a data set that will show how your algorithm performs on unknown to it market movements. Out of sample tests are crucial and you can never trust a strategy that has not been through them.
Walk-forward simulations are similar - you train your algorithm on X amount of data and simulate real-time price feeds and monitor how it performs. You can use the Replay function of TradingView to do walk-forward tests!
When you are doing robustness tests, we have found that a stable strategy performs around 90% similarly in terms of win rate and Sortino ratio compared to training data. The higher the correlation between training performance and out of sample performance, the more risk you can allocate to this algorithm.
___
Now lets move onto some more niche details. Markets don’t behave the same when they are trending downward and when they are trending upwards. We have found that separating parameters for optimization into two - for long and for short - independent of each other, has greatly improved performance and also stability.
Logically it is obvious when you look at market movements. In our case, with cryptocurrencies, there is a clear difference between the duration and intensity of “dumps” and “pumps”. This is normal, since the psychology of traders is different during bearish and bullish periods. Yes, introducing double the amount of parameters into an algorithm, once for long, once for short, can carry the risk of overfitting since the better the optimizer (manual or not), the better the values will be adjusted to fit training data. But if you apply the robustness tests mentioned above, you will find that performance is greatly increased by simply splitting trade logic between long and short. Same goes for indicators.
Some indicators are great for uptrends but not for downtrends. Why have conditions for short positions that include indicators that are great for longs but suck at shorting, when you can use ones that perform better in the given context?
___
Moving on - while overfitting is the main worry when making an algorithm, underoptimization as a result of fear of overfitting is a big threat too . You need to find the right balance by using robustness tests. In the beginning, we had limited access to software to test our strategies out of sample and we found out that we were underoptimizing because we were scared of overfitting, while in reality we were just holding back the performance out of fear. Whats worse is we attributed the losses in live trading to what we thought was overfitting, while in reality we were handicapping the algorithm out of fear.
___
Finally, and this relates to trading in general too, we put in place very strict rules and guidelines on what indicators to use in combination with others and what their parameter range is. We went right to theory and capped the values for each indicator to be within the predefined limits.
A simple example is MACD . Your optimizer might make a condition that includes MACD with a fast length of 200, slow length of 160 and signal length of 100. This may look amazing on backtesting and may work for a bit on live testing, but these values are FUNDAMENTALLY wrong (Investopedia, MACD). You must know what each indicator does and how it calculates its values. Having a fast length bigger than the slow one is completely backwards, but the results may show otherwise.
When you optimize any strategy, manually or with the help of a software, be mindful of the theory. Mathematical formulas don’t care about the indicator’s logic, only about the best combination of numbers to reach the goal you are optimizing for - be it % Return, Profit Factor or other.
Parabolic SAR is another one - you can optimize values like 0.267; 0.001; 0.7899 or the sort and have great performance on backtesting. This, however, is completely wrong when you look into the indicator and it’s default values (Investopedia, Parabolic SAR).
To prevent overfitting and ensure a stable profitability over time, make sure that all parameters are within their theoretical limits and constraints, ideally very close to their default values.
Thank you for reading this long essay and I hope that at least some of our experience will help you in the future. We have suffered greatly due to things like not following trading theory and leaving it all up to pure mathematical optimization, which is ignorant of the principles of the indicators. The separation between Long / Short logic was also an amazing instant improvement.
View the linked idea where we explain the psychology of risk management and suggest a few great ways to calculate and manage your risk when trading - just as important as the strategy itself!
What do you think? Do you use any of these methods; Or better ones?
Let us know in the comments.
Natural Gas Rallies on Weak InventoriesNatural Gas surged up 6% today.
Inventories came out 74B vs 71B estimate.
Despite the weaker report the commodity still surged.
This is showing a great relative strength trade.
A bull flag could be primed for a breakout on the daily chart.
Nat gas equities are beginning to look cheap again.
Apple's Upcoming Earnings Could Propel Stock Beyond $275 Current Price: $262.82
Direction: LONG
Targets:
- T1 = $275.00
- T2 = $285.00
Stop Levels:
- S1 = $258.00
- S2 = $252.00
**Wisdom of Professional Traders:**
This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, offering consensus-driven analysis to identify high-probability trade setups on Apple stock. The collective intelligence regarding Apple suggests strong bullish sentiment, driven by expectations of robust fiscal year 2025 guidance, increased iPhone sales amid a successful product launch cycle, and reinvigorated growth from services revenue. Traders and analysts observed consistent institutional accumulation in recent weeks, pointing toward sustained investor confidence.
**Key Insights:**
Apple recently launched its highly anticipated iPhone 16 lineup, which has been met with strong consumer demand, particularly in international markets. Coupled with its growing subscription-based revenue streams in services like iCloud and Apple TV+, Apple continues to demonstrate its ability to diversify its revenue sources beyond hardware. Notably, advancements in artificial intelligence integration within iOS further position Apple as both a tech leader and key player in the AI revolution.
Financially, Apple is set to announce its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings on November 1, 2025, and many traders expect the company to beat analysts' estimates once again. Apple's significant investments in hardware innovations and supply chain optimization point to solid gross margin improvement. The market is also keeping a close eye on any updates regarding Apple's automotive and healthcare ambitions, which have the potential to unlock new revenue streams, resulting in a further valuation boost.
**Recent Performance:**
Apple has been rallying steadily over October following the broader market rebound that saw gains across major indices like the S&P 500. The stock recently broke through key resistance at $260, spurred on by better-than-expected demand for their latest products and an upward revision in analyst price targets. In the past month, Apple shares appreciated by nearly 8.5%, which has led traders to take optimistic positions ahead of its upcoming earnings report.
**Expert Analysis:**
Top analysts from Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have reiterated their bullish outlook on Apple with a price target range of $280-$300 based on sustained growth across segments like wearable devices, enterprise solutions, and Apple Services. Technically, Apple’s breakout above $260 is supported by high volume, indicating strong momentum. RSI metrics remain neutral at 58, implying room for further upward movement without being overbought.
Experts also underscore management's capital allocation strategy, highlighting massive share buyback programs that support upward price pressure. Furthermore, Apple’s adherence to disciplined innovation while managing macroeconomic challenges has reinforced major institutional positions.
**News Impact:**
Apple’s iPhone 16 launch and increased activity around its augmented reality (AR) product line have supported positive market sentiment. Reports of partnerships with major healthcare providers on its Health platform could provide a growth catalyst, creating a narrative about Apple’s ecosystem expansion into untapped industries. Headlines anticipating a major beat in fiscal Q4 2025 earnings will likely drive traders to aggressively accumulate in the days leading up to earnings, further supporting near-term price action.
**Trading Recommendation:**
Based on the amalgamated analysis, traders should consider initiating a LONG position on Apple at current levels ($262.82) ahead of its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings. A breakout above $275 would signal the next leg higher with an upside target of $285. However, multiple stop levels at $258 and $252 serve as protection against any potential volatility. Given strong growth catalysts, a highly resilient business model, and favorable technicals, Apple presents a compelling opportunity for long-term investors and short-to-medium-term traders alike.
Do you want to save hours every week? Register for the free weekly update in your language!
Apple Smashes Expectations with iPhone 17Apple Smashes Expectations with iPhone 17: Sales Up 14% in Just 10 Days
By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) has made another bold move with the launch of its iPhone 17. According to Counterpoint, the latest model sold 14% more than the iPhone 16 in its first 10 days in key markets such as China and the United States. Growth is even more remarkable in China, where the base model almost doubled its sales compared to the iPhone 16. Overall, sales across both markets surged 31%, consolidating Apple as the undisputed leader in the sector.
The secret behind this success seems simple but effective: a better chip, enhanced display, upgraded front camera, and larger storage capacity, all while maintaining the same price as last year. Apple’s “more for the same” strategy has, at least so far, proven highly profitable.
AAPL Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, Apple shares show a solid bullish momentum following the iPhone 17 announcement:
The price has broken key resistance at $259.47, consolidating above the 50-day moving average for two consecutive sessions.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicators are in slightly overbought territory but show no immediate correction signals.
MACD indicates the early stages of a bullish crossover.
Trading volume has increased significantly in recent days, confirming strong institutional interest.
In this context, current support is around $246.50, with the next support above $241.28 near the 100-day moving average, while the previous key support is at $225.95, coinciding with the 200-day moving average. The ActivTrades US Market Pulse indicates a neutral risk balance, suggesting that these moves are largely driven by speculation around Apple.
For Apple, these figures represent more than just a commercial victory. The company needed a sales boost to justify its position in an increasingly competitive market, and early indicators show it is succeeding.
The iPhone 17 not only strengthens investor confidence in Apple but also sets a new benchmark for the tech industry at a time when innovation and demand for premium devices are higher than ever.
*******************************************************************************************
La información facilitada no constituye un análisis de inversiones. El material no se ha elaborado de conformidad con los requisitos legales destinados a promover la independencia de los informes de inversiones y, como tal, debe considerarse una comunicación comercial.
Toda la información ha sido preparada por ActivTrades ("AT"). La información no contiene un registro de los precios de AT, o una oferta o solicitud de una transacción en cualquier instrumento financiero. Ninguna representación o garantía se da en cuanto a la exactitud o integridad de esta información.
Cualquier material proporcionado no tiene en cuenta el objetivo específico de inversión y la situación financiera de cualquier persona que pueda recibirlo. La rentabilidad pasada y las estimaciones o pronósticos no son sinónimo ni un indicador fiable de la rentabilidad futura. AT presta un servicio exclusivamente de ejecución. En consecuencia, toda persona que actúe sobre la base de la información facilitada lo hace por su cuenta y riesgo. Los tipos de interés pueden cambiar. El riesgo político es impredecible. Las acciones de los bancos centrales pueden variar. Las herramientas de las plataformas no garantizan el éxito.
$AAPL📱 NASDAQ:AAPL Earnings This Week! 🍎
Apple’s earnings are right around the corner, and I’ve been noticing strong demand for the new iPhones even older models are still holding solid in the market.
After the latest iOS update, my older phone started slowing down a bit, which pushed me to upgrade (I use my phone daily for trading and keeping up with news). That experience alone made me realize how Apple continues to drive upgrades and repeat buyers.
With the holiday season coming up, I expect Apple products especially iPhones and accessories to stay in high demand. Accessories themselves are a massive market that shouldn’t be overlooked.
I’m also watching for retail traders to step in this week. Sellers seem willing to raise prices, so it’ll be interesting to see who takes profits and who rides it higher.
Let’s see if NASDAQ:AAPL delivers a strong report and keeps that momentum going. 🚀📊
Apple: New All-Time High!Apple has recently seen a period of heightened volatility, marked by sharp gains and notable pullbacks. We’re allowing for magenta wave (5) to break above the $260.10 resistance level, which would complete green wave . However, our alternative scenario, which carries a 34% probability, calls for a new corrective low in blue wave alt.(IV) . In this case, Apple would have just finished beige wave alt.b slightly above $260.10 and would next decline in wave alt.c , falling below support at $212.94. Even so, the alternative corrective low would remain above the $168 level.
Time to sell? Too much positive press. Sell in greed I’ve fully closed my long position on Apple after an extraordinary run, with the trade playing out exactly as predicted. Now, with the AI bubble inflating and no major new product launches expected, I see a strong case for a short position. Apple is likely to correct down to its support line at $210 and potentially to the 200 EMA at $228 over the next six months. Profit-taking is evident at these levels, and declining volume suggests that selling pressure will intensify. Watch for a break below $266.88 for confirmation; consider taking profits at the CME gap at $254—or hold on and see how far the decline goes.
Long trade 📘 Trade Journal Entry
Symbol: AAPL (Apple Inc.)
Direction: Buy-Side Trade
Date: Fri 10 Oct 25
Time: 11:00 am
Session: LND to NY Session AM
Timeframe: 1 Hour
🔹 Trade Details
Metric Value
Entry 248.43
Profit Level (TP) 278.00 (+11.88%)
Stop Level (SL) 243.56 (–1.98%)
Risk–Reward (RR) 6.0 R
🔸 Technical Context
Structure:
Price broke out from an extended accumulation zone with confirmation from a BOS (Break of Structure) and Demand Zone Retest on the 15-minute and 1-hour timeframes.
The move aligns with a strong fair value gap fill and retest of the order block around 244–245, which acted as a springboard for the next impulsive leg.
Fibonacci Expansion:
1.618 projection → 261.30 (short-term target)
2.618 projection → 267.60 (intermediate)
3.618 projection → 274.00 (high-probability swing)
4.236 projection → 277.92 (extended TP)
Volume Confirmation:
Volume spikes visible at the breakout candle reinforce institutional participation, marking a clear transition from consolidation to markup phase.
🔹 Narrative & Bias
Apple continues to exhibit buyside momentum after consolidating above the September accumulation range. The breaker block re-entry at 245 aligned with fib 0.618 retracement and strong volume demand, confirming bullish continuation.
Current structure mirrors prior accumulation-distribution cycles seen before major upside runs.
Macro Context:
Tech sector rotation in line with AI & earnings optimism.
Broader equity market stability encouraging risk-on positioning in mega-cap tech names.
Projection:
Price expected to extend toward 267–278 levels before the next major consolidation phase, with potential for partial take-profits near the 1.618 extension.






















