Break out or Break down - $C - CitigroupShort-term call?
After a quick drop and sharp earnings reversal, Citigroup seems to be ready to break out of the "Head and Shoulders" pattern it has been setting for a year. In the past two years especially, the second half of the year has typically been a boon to the Financial Sector. Due to the lack of resistance, if Citigroup does resume it's trend, it's clear skies until $73 or 8 strikes from it's Monday (7/16/18) close of $69.47. MACD & RSI divergence, higher lows & highs, hint it's break out time; although $C tends to test support when closing below a mid-dollar strike (e.g. $68.5, $69.5 ... ) many signs seem bullish.
Short-term Put?
Since the 100-day MA hasn't been traversed quite yet and dimming global outlook for a very globally diverse financial institution are pertinent concerns: a resumption of $C's breakdown toward $67.50 is still plausible; Less likely after $66.50 was touched and multiple lines of support drawn there after during the post-earnings fire-sell, but still plausible all the same. Having a complete collapse like the "Head & Shoulders" suggests, and a fall straight through $66 is more of a longer term trend that is unlikely, but still possible. Caution would be to start with a strangle or straddle around the $69.50 strike, with the call focusing on the resistance-turn-support of $69 (firmly in the money) and roll the dice with the put's placement, with one's choice on potential gains.
At the end of the day:
Financial deregulation, tactical global divestment, Citigroup's 10% share buyback, increase in dividend payouts and a solid beat on it's Q2 earnings (despite the sell-off) all point toward a brighter future. Old allies and Old foes becoming the opposite, nationalistic rhetoric and new Middle-Eastern oil deals all are obstacles, but whether they are insurmountable is up to your short-term hypothesis because only time tells; and time is always money.
