"Gambling" on LVS this morning -- Long at 53.46,I was looking through my signals from last week this morning and I came across LVS. Now LVS isn't a lights out safe play, there is risk here and gambling is probably the right word to use in the title. However, good gambling, like good trading, is about pushing your chips to the middle of the table only when the odds favor you.
The signal actually came last week (as you can see from the final white arrow on the chart), but I wasn't ready to push my chips in then, so I let it go and kind of forgot about it for the rest of the week. But this morning, after 5 consecutive down days, which helps put the odds for a short term win in my favor, the risk/reward was good enough for me to ante up here.
We are, I think, at sort of an inflection point in the market overall. If things go south macro-wise, this could be a long, unpleasant trade. But, as Dec-Apr on the chart show, that doesn't mean money can't be made. Given that LVS has never produced a losing trade for me (the world will never run out of gamblers), I got in at a price around 3.5% below that last signal's break even level. What that suggests is that this should be a better than average return trade if I just hold to the recent signal's level. Again, after 5 straight down days, that puts me closer to seller exhaustion as well.
Nothing is guaranteed in the market, even when the history of LVS is 100% wins for me. But when you put the odds in your favor - in this case close to 100% both with a resilient system that pays even in declines, and using those sequential down days to my advantage, you tend to come out ahead. This is not an "all in" trade, however. There is dry powder available to take tactical advantage of any other signals if it does decline or the trade drags out - ALWAYS a good idea.
As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
