MSTR Everyone buying those $400, $500 and even $600 lotto-calls seem to forget Saylor will open the ATM spigot wide open if the stock gets back toward $350. He is probably getting terrible withdrawal symptoms by now and he will be desperate to get the coin count up to near the 700,000 level by end of year.
That would take issuing around $6.5B in stock ATM, or around 20M shares. In turn, that would keep the stock price pinned well under $400 for the next 3 weeks until after the Nov. 21st expiration, all without the MMs having to do any additional hedging of their own. As each day passes, more of their open hedges can be unwound, further pinning the stock.
The theta curve will start steepening and accelerating in the next few days as the delta exposure of those far-OTM calls collapses, making for a very happy holiday season kickoff for the MMs. The man with the orange tie gets to feed his ego with press releases, the MMs make out like bandits thanks to him, and retail once gain takes the shaft in an unlubricated prone position.
MSTR Citi initiated coverage of MSTR yesterday with a tepid buy rating and a price target of $485 based on their projection that BTC will reach $181k.
Why didn't the price pop today? Because the devil is always in the details. The Citi analyst surmised that the stock is likely fairly valued at the current mNAV premium of 1.25-1.35, which means a move in BTC to $181k would not even get MSTR back to its ATH.
The analyst referenced a historic 3.0x delta for MSTR as compared to BTC. He is projecting a future delta of 1.1x, which means he feels like the current mNAV of 1.25-1.35 is fair value for the stock and likely to continue.
Let's do the math: If BTC goes to $181k, that is a 63% move from $111k when the model note was released (yesterday). An increase in MSTR to $485k would be a 70% increase from yesterday, implying a delta of 1.1 in relation to bitcoin. And that assumes no further dilution by Saylor, which could continue to lower the delta overtime as it has done historically.
In short, this research note was written for institutional investors looking for a bitcoin proxy that may not have the ability to invest in bitcoin directly, or their charter may prohibit investment in bitcoin ETFs (such as some school pension funds, etc). The analyst was green-lighting using MSTR as a 1.1 proxy to bitcoin if they have no other alternatives available to them.
The analysts also notes MSTR is a high-risk BTC proxy, and with only a 1.1 delta, investors should proceed with extreme caution. In other words, if a safe ETF is available with a 1.0 delta, you'd be an idiot to invest in MSTR.
That's why the stock did not pop today in response to this research note. Only fanbois, novices or simple-minded retail investors that don't own a calculator (or take the initiative to actually use the one they have) could take this research note as being positive. However, you'll find MSTR shills all over YouTube polishing this into a short-killing price target and a squeeze is imminent. Don't fall for that hopium.
MSTR Everyone buying those $400, $500 and even $600 lotto-calls seem to forget Saylor will open the ATM spigot wide open if the stock gets back toward $350. He is probably getting terrible withdrawal symptoms by now and he will be desperate to get the coin count up to near the 700,000 level by end of year. 
