NVDA at a Pivotal Spot – Aug 21NVDA at a Pivotal Spot – Reversal or Just a Dead Cat Bounce? 🚨
Technical Analysis (1H Chart)
NVDA sold off hard from the $182.5 zone, breaking structure and sliding toward $170 before bouncing. Current price is hovering near $175–176, right under a descending trendline.
* Resistance Levels:
* $178.0 → First key rejection point (previous supply & resistance line).
* $182.5 → Strong supply zone, coincides with prior range high.
* Support Levels:
* $172.5 → Short-term demand from recent bounce.
* $170.0 → Stronger base support; breakdown risks deeper selloff.
* Indicators:
* MACD is turning bullish with histogram rising, suggesting short-term momentum favoring upside.
* Stoch RSI is overbought, which warns of a possible pullback after this bounce.
* Trendline still points downward; NVDA must reclaim $178–182.5 to flip bullish.
⚡ Intraday Bias: Cautious bullish momentum but still within a bearish macro structure. $178–182.5 is the line in the sand.
GEX / Options Sentiment
The options board reinforces the technical zones:
* Upside Gamma Resistance:
* $178.0 → 2nd Call Wall (79%)
* $182.5 → Highest positive NetGEX + Major Call Resistance
* Above $182.5, upside unlocks $187.5 → $190
* Downside Gamma Support:
* $172.5 → 2nd Put Wall (–81%)
* $170.0 → Strongest Put Support (–87%)
* Break below $170 risks fast flush toward $167.5
* Sentiment:
* IVR 20.2 (low → option premiums cheap).
* Options flow leaning slightly bearish with 7.9% Calls, heavy put concentration below $172.
Trading Thoughts & Suggestions
* Bullish Setup: Consider short-dated Calls if NVDA can hold above $175 and break $178 with volume. Target $182.5, then $187.5. Stop under $172.
* Bearish Setup: If rejection comes at $178–182.5, Puts back toward $172.5 and $170 make sense. Strong stop above $183 to manage risk.
Conclusion:
NVDA is at an inflection zone. Short-term bounce looks promising, but unless bulls push through $178–182.5, bears keep control. Watch options walls closely — they align with key technical levels.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only, not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk.
NVDAB trade ideas
BEARISH CASE: NVDA SHOWING CLASSIC PARABOLIC EXHAUSTION BEARISH CASE: NVDA SHOWING CLASSIC PARABOLIC EXHAUSTION 📉
After an unsustainable 300%+ rally since Q3 2023, NVDA is displaying textbook parabolic blowoff characteristics. Weekly chart shows fractal trend violation with price touching upper resistance for first time since 2023.
4-hour chart reveals rapid breakdown below parabolic SAR support - a key reversal signal after extended uptrends. RSI at weekly overbought levels (70+) for prolonged period, historically precedes significant corrections.
Multiple Fibonacci retracement levels ($110-130) now acting as downside targets, representing 30-40% correction potential from all-time highs.
Institutional rotation away from AI premium already in progress. Extremely elevated valuation metrics combined with technical exhaustion pattern suggests profit-taking accelerating.
The AI narrative has pushed NVDA's market expectations beyond reasonable execution capabilities. Watching for confirmation at $150 support level - a break there opens path to much larger correction.
NASDAQ:NVDA #TechnicalAnalysis #BearishSetup
NVDAEVENTS:
1. Relative highs avoided (from July 30 to August 19)
2. Price swept low of August 1 (8% retrace of ATH)
3. Bullish reaction (wick up) from bullish day & 4hr gap
OBJECTIVE:
To Break all time high (ATH)
HISTORY:
Previously, on April 7 2025, price swept low of August 5 2024 (40% retrace of ATH)
NVDA short (Daily chart)MVP SYSTEM
this one is fairly obvious.
MOMENTUM- rsi broke from the triangle; sharply lower
VOLUME- not only was the volume light during this last move went upward, now there is a larger volume red engulfing candle
PRICE- as stated, large red candle. price broke below the topping area. and there is a smooth/rounded top here.
the weekly chart had a breakout to the upside; i suspect this move downward to be a pullback to the last support
Nvidia - This is clearly not the end!📐Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) will simply rally more:
🔎Analysis summary:
Yes, over the past couple of months, Nvidia has been rallying another +100%. But looking at the higher timeframe, this is still not the end of the unbelievable bullrun. Following the rising channel pattern, Nvidia can rally another +20% before we might see a potential retracement.
📝Levels to watch:
$250
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
sellers showing signs of exhaustion, potential return to support1. entry of sellers after strong uptrend
2. buyers gain intrest and push back to challange #1 sellers
3-4. establishment of a consolidation channel
5. buyers strong attempt to push up, the failure of this and the
candles after in which the genesis of the #5 candle is broken down,
shows me that buyers do not have strength right now
* i believe control might be given back to the sellers here.
* two zone based entries using chaos theory targets which currently
have a 64% follow through rate.
NVDA – Two Scenarios on the Table: 200 or 140?NVIDIA has been the undeniable leader of the AI revolution, pushing higher for months and hitting fresh highs around $180+. But after such a strong rally, the market often faces a “decision zone”: either break higher with momentum or take a healthy correction.
That’s why I’m laying out two clear trade paths — bullish continuation 🚀 and bearish retracement 📉.
✅ Bullish Scenario (Momentum Continues → $200)
Entry Points (Bullish):
$178
$170
$160
Profit Targets:
TP1: $185
TP2: $190
TP3: $200+
⚠️ Bearish Scenario (Healthy Correction → $140 Entry)
If momentum fades and sellers push NVDA below $170, a correction toward $140 is possible — which would actually be a great long-term entry for buyers waiting on the sidelines.
Entry Points (Bearish Long Setup):
$160
$150
$140 (ideal deep value entry zone)
Profit Targets on Rebound:
TP1: $160
TP2: $175
TP3: $190
📌 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I’m sharing my personal trading view for educational purposes. Always do your own research and manage risk before entering any trade.
Strong Bullish Flow in NVDA: $180 Calls Primed for Breakout! 🚀 NVDA Weekly Options Bullish Flow – Aug 19, 2025
**Market Sentiment:**
📈 Total calls: **632,689** | Total puts: **334,721**
💥 **Call/Put Ratio: 1.89 → Strong Weekly Bullish Flow**
⚠️ Gamma Risk: Moderate – watch volatility closely.
**Technical Indicators:**
* **Daily RSI:** 63.3 → slight pullback signs
* **Weekly RSI:** 87.2 → 🚀 strong weekly momentum
* **Weekly Volume Ratio:** 0.9x → weak institutional activity, caution advised
**Options Highlights:**
* Key strikes: **\$180** (OI: 65,649), **\$187.50** (liquid and premium-friendly)
* Expiration in **3 days** → time decay accelerating
**Risks to Monitor:**
* Weak weekly volume
* Daily RSI trending down
* Price support at **\$175.90–\$176.00**
**Consensus & Trade Setup:**
* **Overall Bias:** Moderate Bullish
* **Recommended Trade:** **Single-leg Call**
* **Strike:** \$180.00
* **Entry:** \$3.60
* **Stop Loss:** \$1.80
* **Profit Target:** \$6.00–\$7.50 (80%-100% potential)
* **Confidence:** 65%
**Trade JSON Snapshot:**
```json
{
"instrument": "NVDA",
"direction": "call",
"strike": 180.0,
"expiry": "2025-08-22",
"confidence": 0.65,
"profit_target": 6.00,
"stop_loss": 1.80,
"size": 1,
"entry_price": 3.60,
"entry_timing": "open",
"signal_publish_time": "2025-08-19 13:15:57 EDT"
}
NVIDIA (NVDA): Fueling Up for Fresh Highs!NVIDIA (NVDA): Fueling Up for Fresh Highs! 🚀
NVIDIA (NVDA) has staged a powerful recovery, turning the tide from its early 2025 lows and now poised for a significant move. A comprehensive look at the daily timeframe reveals crucial levels and a compelling bullish structure.
Robust Trend Reversal & Channel Formation: Following a substantial bottom established near the 85-95 region 🎯 in April, NVDA initiated a textbook uptrend. The price action has since carved out a well-defined bullish channel 📈, consistently printing higher highs and higher lows, indicative of strong buyer conviction.
Pivotal Support Foundations: The long-term 150-155 zone 🟢 now serves as a robust foundational support, having transitioned from a previous resistance level. More immediately, the 170-175 area 🟣 represents a critical confluence of a recent swing low and the lower boundary of the bullish channel. This zone is paramount for sustaining the current upward momentum.
Immediate Resistance Challenge: Currently, NVDA is fiercely contending with the $183 resistance level ⚡. This is a pivotal point; a decisive breach above this mark would confirm strong bullish continuation, signaling that buyers are firmly in control and pushing for new highs.
Path to Target: A confirmed break above $183 opens the gateway for a powerful push towards the $193 objective 🎯. This target aligns seamlessly with the upper boundary of the prevailing bullish channel, signaling the next potential peak for this rally. Traders should monitor the volume accompanying any breakout for confirmation.
Key Levels to Monitor: While the outlook remains bullish, a failure to defend the
170-175 support would warrant caution, potentially ushering in a retest of the stronger
150-155 foundation ⚠️. Vigilance at these key levels will be crucial for navigating NVDA's next moves.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.
$NVDA big move comingWatching NASDAQ:NVDA close the month with a long legged Doji at the top is leading me to believe that some bigger news will be coming out to drop the stock to the downside. I would expect a nice discount coming for potential longer term entry.
Potentially something like China is rejecting their chips or an international market rejection or lawsuit to come into play.
NVDA - Short for ShorttermNVDA shows double resistance around $185. Price is going flat and double on resistance. Price is also far away from 200 EMA on Day TF and it must meet in near future. There will some slowness on stock movement and retracement will take it towards 200 EMA on D TF. Short term short price target of $150
NVDA - Critical Point right now! Back to 150 OR we make new high📊 NVDA – Multi-Timeframe Outlook
🔎 Monthly (1M)
Strong bullish structure with clear Elliott Wave progression (1)-(3) unfolding.
Current candle shows retracement after a parabolic push, but higher timeframe structure remains intact.
Target level stands at 200 USD, aligning with Wave (3) completion zone.
🕰 Weekly (1W)
NVDA completed Wave (3) near 184, now pulling back into a local support zone ~160 – 165.
Structure suggests a corrective Wave (4) before potential continuation higher.
As long as support holds, expectation remains for a Wave (5) push towards 200+.
⏱ Daily (1D)
Price coiling inside a corrective a-b-c structure under trendline resistance.
Demand/support zone ~170 – 172 is acting as the base.
Break above 184 resistance confirms bullish continuation, while loss of support opens risk towards 152 (deeper retrace).
⏳ 8H
Clear retracement into demand after Wave (3) high.
Price holding trendline support + demand confluence.
If buyers step in, expect a rally into Wave (5) targeting 190 – 200.
Breakdown of demand would shift momentum bearish short-term.
🎯 Trade Plan
Bias: Bullish continuation (Wave 5 setup)
Entry Zone: 170 – 175 (demand/support)
Targets: 184 (short-term), 200 (medium-term)
Invalidation: Break & close below 160 support
Institutions & Participants in Financial Markets1. Introduction
Financial markets are the backbone of global economies. They provide a platform where individuals, corporations, and governments can raise capital, invest savings, and manage risks. Behind every transaction in the stock market, currency exchange, bond market, or commodity trading, there are participants who make the system function. Some are individuals trading with their own savings, while others are large institutions managing billions of dollars. Together, they form a complex network of buyers, sellers, intermediaries, and regulators who ensure liquidity, stability, and transparency in markets.
Understanding Institutions and Participants is essential because they influence how prices are discovered, how risks are shared, and how capital flows across economies. Without them, financial markets would not function efficiently.
2. Definition of Institutions & Participants
Institutions in financial markets refer to organized bodies that create, regulate, or facilitate market activities. Examples include central banks (RBI, FED), regulators (SEBI, SEC), stock exchanges (NSE, NYSE), clearing houses, and depositories. Their primary role is to ensure smooth functioning, enforce rules, and reduce risks of defaults or fraud.
Participants are entities or individuals that actively take part in financial transactions. This includes retail traders, institutional investors, corporations, governments, and intermediaries like brokers and dealers. They provide liquidity, demand, and supply for financial assets.
Together, institutions and participants form the ecosystem of financial markets, where institutions provide the structure and participants provide the activity.
3. Types of Market Participants
(a) Retail Investors
Retail investors are individual participants who invest their personal savings in stocks, mutual funds, bonds, or derivatives. They usually trade in smaller quantities compared to institutions. Retail participation has grown tremendously with the rise of mobile trading apps, discount brokers, and financial literacy campaigns.
Strengths: Flexibility, diversity of strategies, emotional conviction.
Weaknesses: Limited capital, lack of information compared to institutions, prone to herd behavior.
Example: In India, after 2020, retail investors surged on platforms like Zerodha, Upstox, and Groww, contributing significantly to stock market liquidity.
(b) Institutional Investors
These are large organizations that pool funds from clients or members and invest systematically. They include:
Mutual Funds – Manage pooled capital for retail investors.
Pension Funds – Invest long-term for retirement benefits.
Insurance Companies – Invest premiums in safe and growth-oriented assets.
Hedge Funds & Private Equity – Use complex strategies to maximize returns.
Institutions play a dominant role because of their large capital base and access to advanced research. Their actions often influence market trends and sentiments.
(c) Brokers & Sub-Brokers
Brokers act as intermediaries between investors and the stock exchange. They provide platforms, research, and execution services. Sub-brokers or franchisees work under main brokers to service clients in smaller regions.
In India, SEBI regulates brokers, requiring them to register and follow compliance rules. Discount brokers like Zerodha revolutionized the industry by reducing costs and increasing retail participation.
(d) Market Makers & Dealers
Market makers are institutions or individuals who continuously provide buy and sell quotes for securities, ensuring liquidity in the market. Dealers trade on their own account, taking positions in securities to profit from price movements.
Example: In the Forex market, banks act as market makers by offering two-way quotes (bid and ask prices).
(e) Corporates
Companies participate in markets to raise funds by issuing shares, bonds, or commercial papers. They also engage in hedging using derivatives to manage currency or interest rate risks.
For example, Reliance Industries regularly taps debt markets, while Infosys issues shares under ESOPs.
(f) Governments & Central Banks
Governments raise capital through bonds (sovereign debt) to finance infrastructure, welfare, and development. Central banks regulate money supply, set interest rates, and intervene in foreign exchange markets.
The Federal Reserve (US) sets monetary policy that affects global markets.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) manages inflation, rupee stability, and liquidity.
(g) Regulators & Exchanges
Regulators (e.g., SEBI in India, SEC in the USA) create and enforce laws to protect investors and maintain fair markets.
Exchanges (e.g., NSE, NYSE) provide the physical or electronic infrastructure where buyers and sellers meet. They ensure price transparency, equal access, and fair competition.
(h) Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) & Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs)
Global investors participate in emerging markets like India to seek growth opportunities. They bring in large capital inflows, which can boost stock indices but also increase volatility if they withdraw funds quickly.
Example: In 2020–2021, FPIs invested heavily in Indian equities, leading to record highs in Nifty and Sensex.
4. Institutions in Global & Indian Context
Stock Exchanges
Global: NYSE, NASDAQ, London Stock Exchange.
India: NSE and BSE dominate trading volumes.
Clearing Corporations & Depositories
They reduce settlement risks by ensuring that buyers get their securities and sellers receive payments.
India: NSDL, CDSL.
Global: DTCC (USA), Euroclear (Europe).
Regulators
India: SEBI, RBI, IRDAI.
Global: SEC (USA), FCA (UK), ESMA (Europe).
International Institutions
IMF & World Bank – provide financial stability and funding to nations.
Bank for International Settlements (BIS) – sets banking regulations.
5. How Participants Interact in Markets
Financial markets are divided into:
Primary Market: Where new securities are issued (IPOs, bonds). Corporates and governments raise funds here.
Secondary Market: Where existing securities are traded. Retail and institutional investors interact here.
Price Discovery happens when buyers and sellers agree on prices based on demand and supply. Institutions often lead price discovery, while retail investors follow.
Technology’s Role: Algorithmic trading, high-frequency trading, and fintech platforms have transformed participation. Machines now execute trades in microseconds, increasing liquidity but also creating flash-crash risks.
6. Case Studies & Examples
2008 Financial Crisis: Triggered by reckless lending by banks, misuse of mortgage-backed securities, and regulatory gaps. It showed the danger of unregulated institutions.
Indian Markets Post-2020: Surge in retail investors and rise of discount brokers democratized investing. FIIs also played a strong role in pushing indices to record highs.
7. Challenges & Risks
Conflicts of Interest – Brokers may mis-sell products, institutions may prioritize profits over clients.
Market Manipulation – Pump-and-dump schemes, insider trading, and algorithmic manipulation distort fairness.
Globalization Risks – Capital flight during crises (e.g., FIIs pulling funds).
Regulatory Gaps – Some instruments (like crypto) still lack clear regulations.
8. Future of Institutions & Participants
AI & Algorithmic Trading will dominate markets, with human traders playing a smaller role.
Fintech & Digital Platforms will bring more retail investors into the system.
Global Institutional Flows will decide the fate of emerging markets like India.
Sustainable Finance – ESG-focused investing and green bonds will rise.
9. Conclusion
Institutions and participants together form the lifeline of financial markets. Institutions provide the rules, infrastructure, and trust needed for smooth functioning, while participants provide liquidity, capital, and demand. Their interaction shapes prices, drives innovation, and supports economic growth.
From a small retail trader buying a single stock to a central bank moving billions in currency reserves, each participant plays a vital role in maintaining balance. The future will bring more technology-driven participation, deeper global integration, and stronger institutional oversight.
In essence, the strength of a financial market depends on the quality of its institutions and the diversity of its participants.
NVDA Under Pressure: Sellers Dominate as Volume Spikes Fail NVDA Under Pressure: Sellers Dominate as Volume Spikes Fail to Sustain Price Gains
Context – This 60‑minute NVDA chart uses the ATAI Volume Pressure Analyzer (VPA) on a 55‑bar window. The indicator plots an A→B→C structure: the blue C→B segment tracks the preceding advance and the red B→A segment the subsequent pull‑back. Up‑volume and down‑volume are calculated on a lower time frame and then aggregated into host‑time‑frame bars to expose buying and selling pressure.
Volume ranking – Within this window the indicator labels the three largest buying and selling bars (B1–B3 and S1–S3) and reports their statistics in a HUD. The most prominent bar, B1, spans H 184.46 to L 176.41 and shows 5.68 M up‑volume versus 6.69 M down‑volume, producing a –1.01 M delta. B2 (H 178.15–L 173.76) is even more bearish, with 4.03 M up‑volume and 6.52 M down‑volume (delta –2.49 M). B3 (H 177.86–L 171.20) is the only buying bar with a positive delta: 3.50 M up‑volume, 2.79 M down‑volume and a +0.71 M surplus. On the sell side, S1 and S2 coincide with B1 and B2 and mirror their negative deltas. S3 (H 182.08–L 179.10) registers 2.38 M up‑volume against 3.34 M down‑volume for a –0.96 M delta. Collectively, the pattern shows that peaks in buying volume have not yielded higher closes; sellers control all but one of the ranked bars.
Segment behaviour – The C→B rally accumulated roughly 29.89 M up‑volume versus 27.81 M down‑volume, a modest +2.07 M delta. In contrast, the B→A decline logged 40.16 M up‑volume against 43.27 M down‑volume, giving a –3.11 M deficit. The slopes of the trend lines accentuate the story: the advance has gentle positive slopes (~+11° top, +12.4° bottom), whereas the pull‑back slopes downward (–8.5° and –6.9°). Sellers have pushed prices lower more decisively than buyers previously drove them higher.
Price structure and implications – Price currently trades around 174.28 USD. Resistance sits near 178.15 (B2/S2) and 184.46 (B1/S1). As long as price remains beneath these pivot highs and subsequent B‑ranked bars fail to show a positive delta, the selling bias persists. The red dashed guide, connecting recent lows, continues to slope downward, confirming the bearish tilt. Only a flattening or reversal of this guide—coupled with a new B‑ranked bar sporting a positive delta—would hint at a shift in momentum.
Risk management – This analysis is intended for educational purposes. It illustrates how separating up‑ and down‑volume on lower time frames can reveal hidden pressures in intraday charts. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell NVDA stock. Always consult your own trading plan and risk tolerance before acting.
I believe NVDIA will...I think NVIDIA is in a consolidation phase and we may see a pull back into the liquidity zone before its next run and I believe that this is a buying opportunity, to see let profits run. According to the Fibonacci retracement tool that we are using it was going to have a pullback. The way in which it is set up in a way where I am able to tell. It you look at my recent bitcoin publication you would see how it works. It's able to essentially tell you if the asset is going to be bearish or bullish based on its pull backs. Now I am always one for fundamental and I am still experimenting with this strategy. So, I guess we will see.
ALWAYS REMEMBER THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. I PRAY THAT YOU (THE READER) RECIEVE YOUR BLESSING WITH THIS TRADE.
The Many Roads of Your Trading SystemThere are many possible journeys for your account — some lucky, some painful. But why is it that only one of them really matters? Let’s find out.
1. A Glimpse Into the Future (With All Its Paths)
How confident would you feel if your trading plan could show you not just the average outcome you can expect, but also the good, the bad, and even the ugly roads your account might take?
In this blog, we’ve talked about expected value as the trader’s true laser vision: the ability to project the evolution of your account instead of obsessing over the price of a single trade.
Today, we’ll turn that laser forward in time. We’ll see how expectancy becomes real when trades start piling up, and how a couple of simple simulations let us peek into the different futures of a trading system.
2. The Power of Repetition: When the Average Becomes Real
A single trade tells you nothing. It may end in profit, it may end in loss — but in statistical terms, it’s just noise.
Things change once you start repeating trades under a rule-based system. Variance begins to smooth out, and the average result — expectancy — becomes visible.
Think of flipping a coin: if you flip it 5 times, you might get 4 heads and 1 tail. Misleading, right? But flip it 500 times, and the ratio will settle close to 50/50.
Trading works the same way: a system is not judged by one trade but by hundreds or thousands. And here’s where many beginners stumble: they overvalue a single outcome, feeling euphoric after a win or devastated after a loss. That emotional swing is one of the main reasons traders blow up their accounts. But judged in the bigger picture, those single dots are meaningless — what matters is the long-run average.
3. The Trap Visualized
When you look at trades one by one, the picture is chaotic. Some dots are up, some are down, scattered without a clear pattern.
The plot at the top left is exactly what fuels emotional trading. The blue bars are single-trade outcomes — random wins and losses. The red line is expectancy. When you zoom in on just one bar, you’re focusing on noise, whether it’s a big win or a big loss. In reality, that focus is a misleading: a single trade tells you nothing about the true edge of your system.
But when you let your rule-based system play out over time, the story changes. As the top-right plot shows, trades accumulate, those scattered outcomes begin to cluster, and the distribution slowly aligns with the red line. The noise shrinks, the signal emerges, and the expectancy — the true value of your system — takes center stage.
4. From One Trade to Many: The Path of Your Account
Once we shift from a single trade to many trades, the picture changes completely. Instead of scattered dots, we now see full equity paths — different possible journeys of an account following the same rules over time.
The bottom-left plot shows that with just a handful of trades (10 or 20), the paths zigzag wildly. Some end positive, others in losses—here, luck still calls the shots!
The bottom-right plot shows that with hundreds of trades (200, 500, or more), the paths converge around the system’s true average. Luck fades away, and expectancy takes the lead.
5. Expectancy = Realistic Confidence
Together, these lessons are powerful:
A single trade means nothing — it’s just random variance.
Many trades reveal the true destiny of the system — expectancy gradually asserts itself.
This isn’t about promising that losses won’t happen. It’s about accepting that your account’s future is always a range of possible scenarios. The key fact is this: if your system has positive expectancy, mathematics is on your side — but only if you give it enough repetitions for the signal to rise above the noise.
So let me ask you: do you know the expectancy of your system? If you don’t, then trading without it isn’t just risky — it’s irresponsible.
6. Conclusion and What’s Next
So here’s the takeaway:
Expectancy is your compass.
Monte Carlo simulations are the flashlight showing you the different roads that compass might lead you down.
The future of your trading isn’t a black box. It’s a set of possible paths you can explore, measure, and prepare for.
In the next post, we’ll focus on the engine that makes expectancy work in real life: risk management. Because even with a winning system, if you risk too much on each trade, variance can knock you out of the game before expectancy has a chance to do its job.
For Readers Interested in Quantitative Trading
I have prepared a Python repository to accompany this post. You can find it on GitHub by searching for the repository name "How To Lambo." Inside, you’ll find the notebook probabilistic_trading.ipynb, which lets you experiment hands-on with the probabilistic trading concepts discussed here. Think of it as opening the hood of the car and seeing how the engine actually works.
To recreate the plots from this post:
Run monte_carlo_pnl to visualize the dispersion of single-trade outcomes. You’ll see clearly that no single result reflects the true expectancy of the system — it’s all variance.
Run plot_equity_paths with different values of n_trades. At 50 trades, the equity curves look like a jungle of chaotic, diverging paths. At 500 trades, they transform into something resembling a highway of parallel lanes — stable, predictable, and clustered around the system’s mean.
And that’s just the beginning. The notebook follows a clear conceptual line, guiding you interactively through the logic of probabilistic trading. It’s an open invitation to explore, test, and see for yourself the power of expectancy in action.
NVDA Ready to Break Higher – $187.50 Calls Flashing Opportunity!
# 🚀 NVDA Weekly Options Analysis (2025-08-17) – Don’t Miss Out!
### 🔎 Model Insights Recap
**Grok/xAI Report**
* 📊 RSI: Falling (daily & weekly → potential exhaustion)
* 📈 Call/Put Ratio: **2.00 (Bullish flow)**
* 🔊 Volume: Weak
* ✅ Decision: Moderate bullish → suggested **\$190 Call**
**Gemini/Google Report**
* 📊 RSI: Declining
* 📈 Options Flow: Strong, but weak trend & volume
* 🛑 Decision: **Pass** (low confidence)
**Claude/Anthropic Report**
* 📊 Technical: Overbought with negative divergence
* 🔊 Volume: Flat weekly
* 🛑 Decision: **No trade** (bearish momentum indicators)
**Llama/Meta Report**
* 📊 Bias: Neutral-bullish (options flow positive)
* 🔊 Volume: Weak
* ✅ Decision: **\$187.50 Call** with caution
**DeepSeek Report**
* 📊 Market: Bearish divergence despite bullish flow
* 🔊 Volume: Weak institutional support
* 🛑 Decision: **No trade**
---
### 📌 Key Agreements
✔️ Declining daily & weekly RSI = potential momentum exhaustion
✔️ Strong call/put ratio = bullish sentiment from options traders
✔️ Weak volume = lack of support for sustained upside
### 📌 Key Disagreements
⚖️ Grok/xAI & Llama/Meta → potential bullish calls
⚖️ Gemini/Claude/DeepSeek → caution/pass
⚖️ Bullishness varies depending on options flow vs volume
---
## 📊 Recommended Trade Setup
* **Direction:** CALL (Long)
* **Strike:** \$187.50
* **Expiry:** 2025-08-22
* **Entry Price:** \$0.85
* **Stop Loss:** \$0.34 – \$0.425 (40-50% of premium)
* **Profit Target:** \$1.50 (50-100% return)
* **Entry Timing:** Market Open
* **Confidence:** 65%
---
### ⚠️ Key Risks
* **Momentum Exhaustion:** Falling RSI could signal reversals
* **Weak Institutional Support:** Volume may limit upside
* **Event Risk:** Upcoming earnings may introduce volatility
---
📊 **TRADE DETAILS JSON**
```json
{
"instrument": "NVDA",
"direction": "call",
"strike": 187.50,
"expiry": "2025-08-22",
"confidence": 0.65,
"profit_target": 1.50,
"stop_loss": 0.34,
"size": 1,
"entry_price": 0.85,
"entry_timing": "open",
"signal_publish_time": "2025-08-17 09:26:30 EDT"
}
```
10 AI Stocks to BUY/HOLD with Key Catalysts for solid gains 202510 AI Stocks to BUY/HOLD with Key Catalysts for solid gains 2025–2026
________________________________________
1. NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA)
• Catalyst: Expansion of AI infrastructure via new GPU generations (e.g., Blackwell), continued dominance in AI training/deployment. Regulatory/availability clarity in key markets like China could also drive demand.
• Highlights: Leader in AI GPUs; high analyst upgrades and raised targets; strong global demand from data centers and hyperscale AI deployments.
________________________________________
2. Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT)
• Catalyst: Deepening integration of AI across products and services (e.g., Office, Teams), OpenAI partnership further embedded in Azure services, AI product launches (Copilot, AI Studio).
• Highlights: Extensive cloud & enterprise reach; strong balance sheet; strategic positioning as AI infrastructure and application leader.
________________________________________
3. Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL)
• Catalyst: Rollout of key AI products (e.g., Gemini, Bard enhancements), continued monetization of AI in search & advertising, rising AI-related cloud license revenue.
• Highlights: Core AI research leader; growing earnings momentum; sustained institutional inflows and investor confidence tied to AI growth.
________________________________________
4. AMD (NASDAQ: AMD)
• Catalyst: Launch of AI-optimized server chips (e.g., MI400 series), integration of AI functionality in CPUs/GPUs, synergy from Xilinx and Silo AI acquisitions.
• Highlights: Aggressive roadmap in AI compute; acquisitions bringing AI IP and talent; gaining share in AI server ecosystem.
________________________________________
5. Palantir (NYSE: PLTR)
• Catalyst: Expansion of AI-driven government and commercial contracts, rollout of AI-enabled analytics platforms such as Palantir AI suite, new hyperscaler partnerships.
• Highlights: AI-analytics leader with strong public-sector footprint; pivoting toward cloud-based AI; high-margin recurring revenue potential.
________________________________________
6. Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU)
• Catalyst: Accelerated demand for AI-optimized memory and storage (e.g., HBM, SSDs); uptake of Micron's AI/space-qualified SSDs; expansions into AI data center deployments.
• Highlights: Strong sequential performance in earnings; double-digit growth in AI segments; positioned as non-GPU hardware beneficiary of AI boom.
________________________________________
7. TSMC (NYSE: TSM)
• Catalyst: Scaling advanced process nodes (e.g., N3E, N2) to support AI chips, capacity expansion initiatives, securing AI chip orders from Nvidia, AMD, and other fabless players.
• Highlights: Global leader in semiconductor foundry; high-barrier-to-entry business model; direct beneficiary of AI silicon ramp-up.
________________________________________
8. Oracle (NYSE: ORCL)
• Catalyst: Launch and adoption of Oracle Cloud AI capabilities (OCI AI, embedded ML), AI-driven Oracle Fusion applications, increasing AI-related capex by enterprise customers.
• Highlights: Strong enterprise penetration; AI-infused software suite; renewed investor interest from hedge funds targeting AI exposure.
________________________________________
9. Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META)
• Catalyst: Continued investment in large-scale AI infrastructure (data centers), Llama 3 and generative AI models, new AI products in social, AR/VR, and enterprise.
• Highlights: Massive AI compute investments; pioneering open models like Llama; turning AI into a core product strategy beyond social media.
________________________________________
10. Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO)
• Catalyst: AI-related semiconductor solutions (e.g., networking, connectivity, acceleration) embedded in data center infrastructure, demand from AI workload networking.
• Highlights: Integral player in AI infrastructure as part of the “Fab 4”; diversified exposure across chips critical for AI workloads.
________________________________________
How to Monitor These Catalysts
• Product Launches & Roadmap Updates (e.g., NVDA GPU release events, AMD MI400 launch, META model updates)
• Earnings Calls / Financial Guidance revealing AI revenue — especially with MSFT, GOOGL, ORCL, MU, and AVGO
• Partnership or Contract Announcements — e.g., Palantir industry deals, Oracle enterprise AI deployments
• Capacity & Scaling News — e.g., TSMC fab expansion, Micron memory contracts, Meta data center buildouts
NVDA NVIDIA As of mid-August 2025, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) stock is trading around $180.45 per share, down slightly by about 0.86% on the day. The stock has had a strong year, gaining over 34% in 2025, with a recent all-time high closing price of $183.16 recorded on August 12. The company's market capitalization stands at approximately $4.4 trillion.
NVIDIA remains a dominant player in the semiconductor industry, known especially for its leadership in graphics processing units (GPUs), artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, and high-performance computing. The company's focus on AI and data center applications continues to drive investor interest.
Analysts, including those at Goldman Sachs, have a positive outlook on NVIDIA ahead of its upcoming earnings report scheduled for August 27, 2025. They expect strong financial performance, potentially exceeding expectations, particularly driven by ramp-ups in new product lines and growth in key markets like China.
Key highlights:
Current stock price: ~$180.45
Market cap: ~$4.4 trillion
Year-to-date gain: ~34%
NVIDIA's core growth prospects are closely tied to innovations in AI chips, data center expansion, and gaming technologies, positioning it well for continued long-term growth despite some short-term price volatility.
#STOCKS #NVIDIA