ORCL Weekly Signal: Overbought & Set for PullbackORCL Weekly Signal | 2025-12-01
Instrument: ORCL
Strategy: Weekly PUT (Short)
Strike Price: $195.00
Entry Price: $8.75 – $9.20
Target 1: $13.85 (50% gain)
Target 2: $16.65 (80% gain)
Stop Loss: $6.50 (≈30% loss)
Expiry: 2025-12-05 (4 days)
Position Size: 2% of portfolio
Confidence: 58%
Weekly Momentum: NEUTRAL (+0.85% 1W)
Options Flow: Neutral
Risk Level: MODERATE-HIGH
Technical Notes: RSI overbought at 78.8; price near session high; 70% of Katy AI predictions below current price
News Sentiment: Mixed; recent weakness in Oracle cloud sector
Katy AI Prediction: Bearish, price could drop to ~$197.36
⚠️ High Risk Warning: Use only a small position size due to conflicting signals and moderate confidence.
Trade ideas
$ORCL — WaverVanir Edge (Vampiric Setup)NYSE:ORCL — WaverVanir Edge (Vampiric Setup)
(Educational Only)
Market Structure:
Price tapped the ascending trendline after a full liquidity drain from the June–Sept highs.
The selloff created a deep retracement into 0.702 → 0.786 zone, a common SMC reversal region.
ORCL is now positioned for a Vampiric Setup — the market drains retail liquidity before revealing the real directional move.
Vampiric Setup Components (From the chart):
Retail stop pools swept
Breaker structure formed
Bullish displacement confirms aggressive repricing
Liquidity reclaimed with momentum
Bias:
As long as structure respects the trendline, bias favors a multi-month rally toward:
Fib 1.0 → $345
Fib 1.382 → $399 (primary target)
Liquidity Map:
Below: liquidity vacuum already drained — limited downside unless macro breaks.
Above: large inefficiencies between 260 → 315 → 345 now become magnets.
Momentum:
A classic “drain → reclaim → expansion” pattern.
ORCL often trends in large waves due to its enterprise cloud cycles.
Key Levels:
Support: 188 / 205
Targets: 315 → 345 → 399
Invalidation: Strong daily close below trendline
Smart money always moves after the drain.
— WaverVanir International LLC
#ORCL #Stocks #VolanX #AI #Liquidity #WaverVanir
ORCL - Up Or DownORCL's debt clock ticking and CDS are expensive.
Anyways, it's little bit oversold here. We can see a little bounce here.
Earnings next week can ramp this up a little. Prefer to play via shares rather than options.
Long anywhere here.
Target 1 - 223
Target 2 - 240
Target 3 - 252
Stop loss - 200, can be 180 but it's too wide.
Oracle (ORCL) Approaches Key Weekly Support After Trend BreakOracle experienced a strong multi-month uptrend before breaking its major ascending trendline (green line). This break triggered a sharp downside move, forming a new short-term downtrend (red line). Price is now moving toward a critical weekly support at $181.68, which stands out as a major reaction zone.
🔍 Technical Analysis
Current Price: ~$202
Recent price action highlights:
A confirmed break of the long-term uptrend
A clean, accelerating downtrend in place
Price heading toward major weekly support at $181.68
Structure:
Clear downtrend with well-defined support levels that may offer strong risk–reward setups if reached.
🛡️ Support Zones (if pullback continues)
🟢 $181.68 | Stop-loss: $165
Major Weekly Support — Great swing trade setup if reached.
🧭 Outlook
There are three valid approaches depending on the trader’s style:
1️⃣ Enter now and wait
A trader may open a starter position before support is reached. This avoids the risk of missing the move entirely but requires patience as price develops.
2️⃣ Wait for the $181.68 weekly support
This is the cleanest structural level, but there is a real possibility price does not reach it, leaving no entry.
3️⃣ Wait for a break of the downtrend to go long
This is the safest confirmation-based entry. A breakout above the red trendline signals momentum reversal, but usually results in a higher entry price.
Bias:
Bullish only if $181.68 holds or if the red downtrend breaks.
🌍 Fundamental Insight
Oracle’s fundamentals remain intact despite the recent technical weakness. Cloud and AI infrastructure revenue (OCI) continues expanding, supported by strong cash flow, dividends, and buybacks. The correction reflects broader market tech volatility more than company-specific deterioration.
✅ Conclusion
Oracle is trading within a well-defined downtrend while approaching a major weekly support at $181.68.
This is one of the cleanest swing levels on the chart. Traders can choose between early positioning, waiting for the support, or waiting for trendline confirmation depending on their risk tolerance.
If you found this useful, don’t forget to like & follow for more structure-based insights.
orcl breaking orcl has seen almost 200% gains and now has pulled back onto support. we have came down 45% and are simply resting support and from here we will need bullish conformation on the smaller times .i will expect a break out as long as we close green next week orcl will be looking ready to move
ORCL Swing Signal: Katy AI Predicts Short-Term UpsideORCL Swing Signal — (2025-11-28)
Instrument: ORCL
Direction: BUY CALLS 📈
Confidence: 58% (Medium)
Horizon / Expiry: 14 days → 2025-12-12
Strike Focus: $210.00
Entry Range: $8.50 – $9.00 (mid $8.75)
Target 1: $12.75 (+50%)
Target 2: $15.30 (+80%)
Stop Loss: $6.38 (-25%)
Position Size: 2% of portfolio
Risk Level: Moderate — recent volatility and low confidence
Katy AI Signal
Bullish bias, recovery potential after 7.96% drop
Predicted mean reversion toward $220–$230 range
40.2% swing range position favors upside
Technical Context
Current Price: $201.30 (< VWAP $206.97) → potential bounce
Key Resistance: $219.07
Support: $185.63
Trend Strength: Weak, but setup favors upside
Candlestick Patterns: None detected
Broader Market: STRONG_BULLISH; SPY & QQQ bullish
Options Flow
Neutral flow, low time decay risk
No unusual activity — potential for momentum shift
Trade Setup & Strategy
Why This Trade: Combines oversold bounce potential with broader market tailwinds
Timing Advantage: Enter after sharp single-day drop; favorable risk/reward
Risk Mitigation: Tight stop loss, small position size, scale in if needed
Oracle Corporation (ORCL) – Technical & Fundamental OutlookAfter a strong multi-month rally, Oracle (ORCL) recently broke below its short-term trendline, signaling a cool-off in momentum 📉 after months of steady gains.
Currently, price is holding around $275, with the next key weekly support near $249, which could offer a technical rebound opportunity if buyers step in.
The $181–$185 “greedier” support zone remains on the chart its a great swing position but high risk of not reaching it since reaching it requires a deeper tech correction.
📊 Technical Levels
Weekly Support: $249
Deeper Support (High-Risk Of not reaching it): $181–$185
🧠 Fundamental Insight
Oracle continues to strengthen its AI-driven and cloud-focused ecosystem ☁️, transitioning from traditional database services to high-growth enterprise cloud infrastructure.
Cloud services revenue continues to grow at double-digit rates, led by OCI.
Strong free cash flow supports steady dividends and ongoing share buybacks.
Expanding partnerships in AI, ERP, and autonomous data management place Oracle in a favorable position against major competitors like Microsoft and AWS.
These strong fundamentals maintain a long-term bullish bias, even amid short-term volatility.
✨ If you find this analysis useful, please don’t forget to like 👍 and follow for more technical & fundamental updates.
ORCL QuantSignals V3: Market Watching – Awaiting Breakout!ORCL QuantSignals Katy 1M Prediction 2025-11-26
Direction: (Neutral)
Current Price: $205.07
Final Prediction: $205.38 (+0.15%)
30min Target: $205.76 (+0.34%)
Trend: Neutral
Confidence: 40.0%
Volatility: 48.9%
Trade Signal Generated: ❌ None (insufficient confidence/move size)
Summary:
Katy AI predicts a very small move, so no active call or put recommendation.
The stock is essentially in a neutral stance for the short term.
No entry, target, or stop-loss levels are suggested.
ORCL Neutral Forecast — Insufficient Move for Trade SetupORCL QuantSignals Katy 1M Prediction 2025-11-25
Ticker: ORCL
Current Price: $195.31
Katy AI Final Prediction: $196.01 (+0.36%)
30-Min Target: $195.94 (+0.33%)
Trend: NEUTRAL
Confidence: 55%
Volatility: 39.2%
🚫 Trade Signal
No trade generated — move size and confidence level too low.
📝 Summary
Katy AI forecasts only a mild +0.36% upside, with neutral trend and low conviction, resulting in no actionable setup for ORCL today.
0 trade signals generated from 1 completed analysis.
QS V3 ORCL Weekly Momentum Breakout AlertORCL (QS V3 Weekly | 2025-11-24)
Direction: BUY CALLS
Confidence: 60%
Expiry: 2025-11-28 (4 days)
Strike Focus: $192.50
Entry Range: $9.20 – $9.65 (mid: $9.43)
Target 1: $15.10
Stop Loss: $5.66
Weekly Momentum: Bullish (+1.82% 1W)
Flow Intel: Neutral
Risk Level: ⚠️ Moderate Risk
Katy AI Forecast: Predicts move toward $233.28 (+16.7%) by Nov 26–27, with peak near $247.
Support: $196.87
Resistance: $234.75
VWAP: $205.75
Volatility: VIX 23.43
Recommended Position Size: 3%
Is Oracle’s AI Growth Hitting a Structural Wall?Oracle Corporation (ORCL) stands at a defining juncture where aggressive cloud expansion collides with the physical limits of infrastructure scaling. Despite a strategic pivot that has positioned Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) as a primary engine for artificial intelligence workloads, the stock has retreated approximately 35% from its September peak. This volatility reflects a market grappling with a dual narrative: the immense promise of a $300 billion AI pipeline and the operational fragility of concentrating heavily on a single client, OpenAI.
Geopolitics and Geostrategy: The Sovereign Advantage
Oracle has effectively weaponized data sovereignty as a competitive moat. Unlike hyperscale rivals often viewed with skepticism in Europe and Asia, Oracle’s dual-region sovereign cloud strategy allows governments to retain strict legal control over data residency. This approach insulates a portion of Oracle’s revenue from protectionist policies and US-China trade tensions, positioning OCI as the "neutral" vendor of choice for state-level actors requiring air-gapped security for sensitive workloads.
Industry Trends and Macroeconomics: The Capacity Wall
The macro environment presents a paradox for Oracle. High interest rates have inflated the cost of debt just as the company accelerates capital expenditures (CapEx) to build AI data centers. Simultaneously, the industry faces a hard physical ceiling: power availability. In key markets like Northern Virginia and Silicon Valley, grid connections face multi-year delays. Oracle’s ability to secure gigawatt-scale power for its "Stargate" class projects will be the primary determinant of whether it can convert its record bookings into recognized revenue before 2027.
Business Models: The OpenAI Concentration Risk
Oracle’s shift from license-based legacy software to consumption-based cloud revenue is accelerating, but the quality of this revenue is under scrutiny. Recent disclosures reveal that a significant percentage of the company’s Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) is tied to OpenAI’s massive infrastructure demands. While this validates OCI’s technical prowess, it introduces binary counterparty risk. If OpenAI faces regulatory headwinds or funding slowdowns, Oracle’s growth narrative could face an abrupt repricing.
Technology, Cyber, and Patent Analysis
Technologically, Oracle differentiates itself through automation. Its Autonomous Database utilizes machine learning to self-patch and self-tune, theoretically reducing the cyber attack surface by eliminating human error—the leading cause of data breaches. Patent analysis suggests Oracle is aggressively protecting this "self-driving" database architecture, aiming to lock in enterprise clients who prioritize security over the raw compute cost advantages offered by generic cloud providers.
Management and Leadership: The Aggressive Pivot
Under the stewardship of Larry Ellison and Safra Catz, Oracle’s culture remains unapologetically aggressive. The leadership has demonstrated a willingness to sacrifice short-term margins for long-term capacity, a strategy reminiscent of Amazon’s early AWS days. However, this high-stakes bet requires flawless execution in supply chain management, particularly in securing Nvidia GPUs amidst global shortages.
Stock Performance and Technical Status
Technically, ORCL is testing critical support zones after its sharp 35% correction. The sell-off was triggered by the realization that bookings growth does not equal immediate cash flow. Investors are currently demanding proof of "broad-based demand"—evidence that OCI is winning enterprise clients beyond the headline-grabbing AI labs. Until this diversification is proven, the stock remains vulnerable to volatility.
Analysis of the $ORCL stock chart
NYSE:ORCL is set to release its earnings later this week, so I wanted to take a closer look ahead of the report. On the 1-month timeframe, plotting the Fibonacci sequence shows that the recent pullback found support at the 0.5 Fibonacci level, accompanied by a bullish engulfing pattern — a potential signal for further upside.
The RSI remains above 50 and is trending upwards, which adds to the bullish case. However, earnings could be a key swing factor, potentially moving the stock sharply in either direction.
From a technical standpoint, this setup suggests a watchlist-worthy opportunity. If the stock holds above key support levels, momentum could carry it higher, but traders should be mindful of volatility around the earnings release.
NYSE:ORCL heads into Dec 10 earnings with the stock down from Sept highs. Cloud & AI growth could drive a beat, but debt & cap‑ex weigh. A strong report may lift the stock, a miss could keep it under pressure. #Oracle #AI #Cloud #EarningsSeason
Oracle (ORCL) rebounded on renewed AI momentum.
Surging Alphabet (GOOGL) and revived Nvidia (NVDA) stock prices are leading the AI momentum. Oracle (ORCL), which fell over 40% from its high on amplified doubts over its 300 bln USD computing contract with OpenAI, saw a rebound.
Deutsche Bank assessed the drop in ORCL stock as providing an attractive entry point. They valued the current price as reflecting no positives, citing EPS (ex-OpenAI costs) at 17 USD and FCF at 31 bln USD, both below company guidance.
HSBC also issued a Buy rating on ORCL, expecting various financing strategies for data center costs to be announced, thereby mitigating balance sheet burden and diversifying risk.
ORCL briefly tested the 186.00 low before slightly rebounding. The price remains within the descending channel and below the bearish EMAs, indicating the potential downtrend extension. If ORCL breaches above EMA21 and 220.00, the price could advance toward the next resistance at 250.00.
Conversely, if ORCL fails to close above EMA21, the price may retreat toward the following support at 186.00.
ORCL Momentum Play: Go Long with QuantSignals V3!ORCL — QuantSignals Katy (1M Prediction | 2025-11-21)
Current Price: $198.11
Predicted Close: $200.82 (+1.37%)
30-min Target: $197.64 (-0.23%)
Trend: Bullish
Confidence: 69.1%
Volatility: 113.3%
Trade Signal
• Direction: Long
• Entry: $198.11
• Target: $200.28
• Stop Loss: $195.14
• Expected Move: +1.37%
ORACLE The collapse won't stop here.Oracle (ORCL) has been correcting violently ever since its early September news-related pump that made new All Time Highs (ATH). The correction has already almost reached the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), resembling the technical pull-back of both December 2024 - April 2025 and the 2022 Inflation Crisis.
Based on the 1W RSI, we expect Oracle to follow that Bear Cycle and seek its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for Support, which has been he most optimal long-term buy entry of the past 5 years.
If this Channel Up holds, this time the bottom should be above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. Our Target is $170.
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