Watchlist 2023-05-01 $SPY $JPM $NCLH $SOFI $PINS $APLSAMEX:SPY - well after and week of ranging between 415 to 410, early last week we broke down to 406. However, it only took 2 days to reverse 8 days of those losses and are now trading right back at 415. This morning to continue higher a heathy pullback to 412 would add fuel to this bull fire. While a look above 415 and a quick rejection down would give signs for and early , and potentially more aggressive more down. But anything is possible. Investors are awaiting the FED decision on interest rates on Wednesday.
NYSE:JPM - regulatory authorities confirmed that First Republic Bank has been seized and that JPMorgan Chase & Co has agreed to purchase most of the bank's assets. Investors are liking this news as JPM jumps 2 ATRs in the PM into the 144 range resistance. If there is consolidation here for a few min on the only this is a 10/10 level to buy a BO. The market previously acted very favorably when UBS bought the troubled Credit Suisse for pennies on the dollar and it looks like JPM is only getting a massive discount on this deal. JPM is only setting up with a beautiful daily buy setup which makes the BO more powerful. The only downside is the lack of PM vol which could be misleading due to the april 14 when it had 6 PM vol
For further confirmation of a trend day, watch for:
USI:ADD pinned near +\-2000
USI:VOLD ratio over +/- 3
USI:TICK cumulating past 0 wicking to +/-900
NYSE:PINS - fell on lower earnings on Friday's session. Trading 5 RVOL this PM. Had multiple price target adjustments 1 dollar lower but the vast majority of the targets are a few dollars higher than the current price. Trading 5 RVOL in the PM session. Making a tight range at 23, which is also the 3 month pivot. If pins can trade above the pivot of 23, and can get past the 23.25 PM resistance form Friday. I think we could see 24, and potentially 25.
NASDAQ:SOFI - Q1 Loss Narrows, Net Revenue Rises; 2023 Adjusted Net Revenue Guidance Raised. 6.30 was the tough level to get past on Friday so there is plenty of demand there. If we get a sell off early on , looking to buy this level. However, if we range off the open, and put in a clear inflection, I would also buy a Break above inflection, I could see a level forming at 6.45 as that's the 200 EMA.
NYSE:NCLH - buy over 13.75 if there is consolidation at that level first. Don't want to be firs to this trade.
NASDAQ:ALPS - under 78 sell.
PINSD trade ideas
PINS | Informative NYSE:PINS
Pinterest dropped by 15% after its recent earnings report, despite exceeding expectations. Based on my analysis, I anticipate further decline as the stock closed below the weekly trendline from August 2022. The next support level is estimated to be in the range of 18$ to 19$. While there is potential for the stock to fill the gap left after the earnings drop.
$PINS Bullish patternNot financial advice,
$PINS currently creating higher highs and higher lows in this uptrend in white triangle usually a bullish pattern, but will need to break the broadening formation in blue to confirm. fail to do so and we will head to the lower part of the formation!
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PINS Short 3.10 to 4/14 following Fri 3.10 OpeningPINS continuing its descending micro-pattern following Earnings (see PEAD Project) towards a low range of 22.87-23.86 prior to its next Earnings period.
Selling Call Credit Spreads following the brief push-up pre-market on 3/10/23 at 24.5/26 (deltas == -0.57 / 0.42).
Consider closing or rolling up/out if loss == 25% OR price exceeds 26
Take profit at 55-65%.
Chart Reading: PINS on the move finally? PINS may be on the move ... but has to first contend with 2 heavy congestion zones ahead.
This chart reading uses MA's, simple VPA (Volume Price Analysis), MACD/Momentum and "built-in" Bar Strength analysis
The weekly view is much easier to see given the high volatility on the daily TF .. there's finally some positive sentiment building up on the weekly - the weekly also shows that recently there is (relatively) good reaction to up moves and weak reaction to the downside ...
let's keep an eye on PINS
thoughts & comments ?
PINS: cup and handleIt is time to put an alert on PINS. The stock has been very constructive for the past year putting in a rounding bottom. From an Elliot Wave point it counts as a leading diagonal with fib targets almost in the money. It has created the cup of the cup and handle pattern and the handle is being formed right now. over the next weeks I will keep a close eye on $21 - $19.5 level. If the bounce makes a micro 5 wave moves up (in 15 min or 30 min time frames), I will contemplate a significant portion of my capital into PINS for a strong swing up toward $50 target by end of year. For now, a few more weeks of patience is required.
'Jade Lizard' Trade Idea for a 3/3 Expiration$PINS 'JADE LIZARD'
Pinterest has been great for iron condors the last six months as it has been ranging between $20 and $27.
A similar neutral strategy is a 'Jade Lizard', which is combining a short put with a call credit spread. The idea is that the premium credit from the short put needs to be sufficient to cover the max loss of the call credit spread. And in doing so, the jade lizard setup has no risk to the upside. One thing that is nice about the jade lizard compared to the short iron condor is that if the share price falls and triggers assignment on the short put, the trader now possesses something to show for their troubles, namely shares, which they can now use to sell [aggressive [ calls with in order to get back to breakeven or profitability. With an iron condor, once you take your loss you can't do much about it, except for rolling the losing side into an even riskier credit spread further out. Of course the counter argument is that the holding the shares from a short put could be riskier overall than walking away from the defined risk of a credit spread. In any case, it would be wise to pick a stock, like $PINS, that is expected to fare relatively well in the current market.
If the call credit spread is violated and the short call is in the money, the trade will need to be closed manually before close on expiration day.
$29 Call 3/3 buy
$28 Call 3/3 sell
-- --
$24 Put 3/3 cell
Total Credit ~$156.
Collateral $2,400 for short put.
Renewed MomentumAfter the short attempt to retrace and the close of the 4 hour window we've got a sharp spike up which I consider being a signal for renewed strength. As we still are trading in a broad range I prefer to trade the 4 hour only not yet looking at longer terms. The more that I assume to whole stock market rather running sidewards in the next time.
Learn Patience The whole picture. Trading in a nutshell. Big consolidations know matter the form; triangles, pennants, or rectangles... etc. A good trader has a lot of patience. So, at the moment we are in a good rectangle base consolidation, it could change to another form. The trade and the hope would be that in time we breakout to the upside of the consolidation for a big move to the long-term downtrend line. Could always breakdown to the downside and we would have a short. The lesson here is patience in your trading journey. Good luck to all and God bless.
Pinterest's gains to be capped.Pinterest - 30d expiry - We look to Sell at 26.74 (stop at 28.01)
The primary trend remains bearish.
The trend of higher highs is located at 26.80.
In our opinion this stock is overvalued.
Early optimism is likely to lead to gains although extended attempts higher are expected to fail.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Although the market broke to the upside in early trade, bespoke resistance at 26.80 capped the gains.
Our profit targets will be 23.61 and 23.11
Resistance: 25.50 / 26.80 / 27.50
Support: 22.80 / 22.00 / 20.80
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