T-Mobile SHORTT-Mobile has recently declared a dividend, but it's uncertain if it's a buy for long-term dividend investors. The company has been steadily upgrading its network and has a strong growth outlook, but it also has a significant debt burden. The company's balance sheet is not a major red flag, but investors should be mindful of it. T-Mobile's dividend is covered by its cash flows, and it has been buying back shares, taking them off the market. The company's growth outlook is expected to slow down in 2025, but it is still expected to grow. The stock is attractive for long-term investors, but they should be cautious of tighter consumer spending and an expected recession.
Trade ideas
Potential Breakout in T-MobileT-Mobile US has barely moved since mid-2021, but now it may be attempting a breakout.
The first pattern on todayโs chart is the series of higher lows since June. Notice how the wireless stock apparently broke the top of that ascending triangle last month. That may signal continuation to the upside.
Next, a falling trendline along the highs of November 2022 and April 2023 offered resistance. But, it gave way last week.
Third, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) had a โgolden crossโ above the 200-day SMA three weeks ago. That may suggest the longer-term trend is getting bullish again.
Finally, TMUS ended last week near the previous record closing price from exactly a year before. Further upside from here could potentially draw money from the sidelines.
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TMUS Might Be Ready To RipT-Mobile NASDAQ:TMUS is the nation's third largest mobile carrier, behind Verizon NYSE:VZ and AT&T NYSE:T
Since 2020, the company has grown revenues and profits considerably as synergies with combined company Sprint have taken hold, and the valuation has come back into an appealing area as well, at 23x earnings:
This may look expensive to some, but for a company this large, with such strong network effects and unbelievable cash flow, it seems reasonable to us.
Technically, the stock rallied into the end of 2021, but has traded sideways since over the past two years. We think a breakout could be in the cards, as the stock's megastructure has formed a kind of ascending triangle. We expect that further progress in earnings could ignite the stock, sending shares as high as $180.
While not an explosive move, playing the underlying shares using call option contracts could be a highly profitable endeavor.
On a breakout, we like 6-month out, at the money contracts as a way to play the name. They would require significantly less capital to buy into a position vs. the equity, and should present similar upside reward in a breakout scenario.
Be sure to keep this one on your radar for when the time comes.
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Looking Bearish on TMUS.
As you can see here we are sitting on a support line I drew on the 1 hour chart. We have formed a double top on the daily chart. I am looking to either gap below this level or breakthrough, retest and buy puts on the 15-minute chart with high volume. The bottom green demand zone would be my profit target.
Weekly ChartShort interest is just above 5%.
Top line slopes down and bottom line slopes up = Symmetrical Triangle.
Triangle targets are calculated from the point of the break. A symmetrical triangle has 2 sloping lines so targets are difficult to guesstimate as there is no way to know where this will break.
Triangles are consolidation patterns.
No recommendation
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20% ROI potential on TMUST-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS) presently breaking through key resistance.
A weekly settlement above this resistance would place (TMUS) into a buy-signal with potential gains of 5% - 10% over the next 1 - 2 months for short-term traders, and gains of 20% expected over the next 6 - 8 months for long-term investors.
Inversely, failing to close above this resistance level on a weekly basis keeps (TMUS) susceptible to falling back to key support.
T-MOBILE 1st Bullish Break-out signalT-Mobile US (TMUS) broke today above the Lower Highs trend-line of April, the long-term Resistance and will most likely close the first 1D candle above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since August 16. This is the first bullish break-out signal of this pattern. The second will be if the price breaks above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) / 1W MA50 (red trend-line) which are trading on the exact same spot.
If we get a 1D candle close above them, we will buy the first break of Resistance 1 (142.85) and target 150.00, which will be a +14.33% rise from the bottom, same as the July 25 peak.
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T-Mobile US: Answer the Call! ๐Slowly but surely, T-Mobile US is answering the call of our dark green target zone between $161.69 and $168.80, heading further upwards. To finally pick up the receiver and complete wave B in dark green, the share should develop a three part upwards movement consisting of waves a, b and c in magenta, which should carry it above the resistance at $154.38. However, there is a 33% chance that T-Mobile US could have already hung up wave alt.B in dark green and thus drop below the support at $124.92.
$TMUS - Death Cross Pattern1. RSI Bearish Divergence in the upper timeframe, at the top of a long term uptrend, concluded 5 months ago.
2. Market showing signs of distribution as illustrated by the erratic price action it has been subject to since the last quarter of 2021.
3. The bias is to look for short opportunities.
4. 2 Weeks ago the yellow trendline breakout, close to the delimited resistance area, gave us the trigger we were looking for.
5. The past week came with a 10 EMA crossunder the 50 EMA, raising further authority and confirmation to the bearish thesis.
6. For the sake of working with a healthy risk to reward ratio, wait for the price to retrace to the EMAs and display a rejection candle against this area.
0. Remember that drawing lines on a chart means nothing if you do not command and deploy thorough risk management principles and rules.
Cheers,
Tenacious Tribe - Backtested, Quantified Trading Strategies
Trash Talk on TelecomsBloomberg reports AMZN in talks with telecoms and the carriers all sell off in response to the news. Reuters reports AMZN says they are not talking to telecoms and now we wait for investors to either buy back their positions or continue selling due to the spike down in prices. Which side are you on? The side I'm on will be selling PUT options next week on TMUS, expecting the inevitable bounce back to the price range it had been in prior to the false report.
At a minimum TMUS gets back to the mid 130s with resistance starting at $140.
Place your bets.
T-MOBILE hit the 1W MA100 after 7 months. Buy. T-Mobile (TMUS) has been trading within a long-term Channel Down pattern and yesterday started rebounding after hitting the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) for the first time since October 13 2022. That fractal is very similar with the current sequence. This is a buy call and with it we are targeting the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at 143.50.
Attention is needed as we are about to see the first 1D Death Cross since October 11 2021. As a result we will only turn bullish on T-Mobile again on the long-term if the price breaks above Resistance 1 (152.25).
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RectangleEarnings 4-27 AMC
Targets in green are for a break up from the horizontal trading channel and targets in orange for a break to the downside,
No recommendation.
Neutral pattern until broken.
Price is above the .236
52 Week Range
120.90
154.38
Day Range
144.90
146.05
EPS (FWD)
7.15
PE (FWD)
20.40
Div Rate (TTM)
-0
Yield (TTM)
-0
Short Interest
5.48%
Market Cap
$175.86B
Trade Idea: TMUS (T-mobile) TMUS is looking very topping heavy on the larger term time frame.
This would align with our thesis that we believe communication and aspects of the tech market are going to see some capital rotation.
If this weekly topping formation is triggered in this chart we will have a high probability trade setup.
Knowing the trend to trade is key.






















