TSLA 1H + GEX Game Plan for Tue, Sep 16TSLA Cooling After a Monster Run — Will 410 Hold or Is 430 Next? ⚡️
Market Structure (1-Hour View)
* Sharp run-up: TSLA ripped from mid-300s to a peak around 430 and is now consolidating in a broad rising channel.
* Trend support: Current pullback is testing a rising channel floor near 405–410.
* Momentum: MACD still in a bearish cross with fading histogram; Stoch RSI is climbing out of oversold — early sign of a potential rebound.
Key Levels to Watch
* Resistance: 410.8 (current pivot), 420.0–422.0, and 430.4 (recent high / gamma wall).
* Support: 402.2, 395.9, then deeper supports near 346.1 and 340.0 if momentum collapses.
GEX Read (Sep 16)
* Highest positive NETGEX / Call resistance: 430.4
* 2nd Call Wall: ~420–422 area.
* HVL / gamma pivot: 356–357.
* Put walls: 320 and 305.
* Options sentiment: Calls >100% (very call-heavy), IVR ~20, IVx ~65.9 — big bullish skew but with elevated implied volatility.
Implication:
* Dealers may keep TSLA pinned around 400–420 for balance.
* A strong reclaim of >420 with volume invites a retest of 430.4 and possibly higher.
* Lose 402 and a slide to 395–390 is possible.
Trade Scenarios
1) Bullish Continuation
* Trigger: 1H close >412–415 with uptick in volume.
* Entry: 414–415 on retest.
* Targets: 420 → 430.4.
* Stop: Below 408.
* Options: 420/430 call debit spread expiring this week.
2) Range Fade
* Trigger: Failure to clear 415 with repeated rejection wicks.
* Entry: 413–414 short.
* Targets: 402 → 395.9.
* Stop: Above 417.
* Options: 410P or 415/402 put spread for quick fade.
3) Deeper Pullback
* Trigger: Clear 1H break <402 with retest fail.
* Entry: 401–402 short.
* Targets: 395 → 390, with a stretch toward 356–357 (HVL) if heavy selling accelerates.
* Stop: Back above 406.
Options: 400/390 put spread for a measured pullback.
Scalping & Swing Notes
* First test of 410–412 will set the early tone; quick rejections there can produce a 5–10 point scalp.
* If we gap near 400, watch for a sweep into 395 then bounce back toward 410.
Risk & Management
* Keep sizing conservative: TSLA’s elevated IV means sharp intraday swings.
* Scale out partials at first target and tighten stops if momentum accelerates in your favor.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always trade with a plan and manage risk carefully.
