Tesla Breakout? For the majority of the calendar year TESLA has been in a range between $220 - $365 with a clear midpoint of $295.
From March to the beginning of May TESLA bounced between range low and the midpoint until finally breaking through into the upper half of the range where it has stayed ever since. However, there is a clear diagonal resistance level that is preventing higher highs.
So will TESLA breakout, or will it lose the midpoint? Structurally it is clear that the bulls have a set level they are happy to buy at (Midpoint) but the bears are getting more aggressive with their selling, hence the lower highs. This compression inevitably leads to an impulse move but the direction is not so clear.
Bullish scenario: A clean breakout with volume that makes a new higher high, signaling a shift in structure. A pullback and retest of the breakout would be an ideal opportunity to go long and aim for that range high before expecting resistance.
Bearish scenario: The lower highs keep printing until the midpoint is lost and price accepts below it, that would then signify to me the new trading range is between Range Low and Midpoint.
The fakeout scenario is a risk but with price so close to the midpoint already it follows the same invalidation criteria as the bullish scenario, the midpoint is vital to both sides.
TSLAC trade ideas
Tesla Stock Gains After Musk Gets $30 Billion Award — What Now?Tesla board is hoping that the pile of shares would be enough to pin down the CEO and lock down his focus. But challenges are there. Here’s one — $30 billion might not be enough to keep Musk around.
💰 $30 Billion Retention Bonus
Tesla stock NASDAQ:TSLA is up about 4% since the start of the week after the board of directors handed Elon Musk a gift-wrapped, legally-contingent $30 billion stock package .
What’s inside? A cool 96 million shares — nearly enough to buy a small country or, at the very least, keep Musk’s wandering focus in the Tesla lane.
In a letter to shareholders, the board didn’t mince words: “We are confident that this award will incentivize Elon to remain at Tesla. Retaining Elon is more important than ever.” Translation: “Please don’t leave, here’s money.”
This isn’t just about stock awards or executive compensation. It’s about bringing back lost focus and whether the most famous CEO on the planet can be convinced to stop juggling a handful of companies and pay full attention (ok, more attention) to the one that’s public, highly volatile, and still kinda trying to figure out self-driving and robotaxis .
🎢 If the Stock Could Talk
The market’s response? Pretty bullish. Traders seem to like the idea of Musk staying inside the Tesla factory gates — or at least not moonlighting in so many side quests.
After all, Elon’s presence — erratic tweets, spontaneous product reveals, and all — is a core part of Tesla’s brand value. The stock has often behaved more like a crypto coin than a traditional automaker.
Musk already owns over 400 million shares, around 13% of Tesla, worth roughly $125 billion. But he’s gunning for more: his long-stated ambition is 25% voting control (equal to $250 billion in shares based on the current $1 trillion market valuation. This new package edges him closer to that goal. If he can’t own a country, a quarter of Tesla might do.
⚖️ A Legal Complication Worth $56 Billion
There’s one tiny footnote here: if Elon wins back his 2018 $56 billion pay package — the one struck down by a Delaware court — he might have to forfeit this new batch.
So yes, Tesla may have just given the richest man in the world a “Plan B” golden parachute. Or a “Plan A” depending on how Delaware judges are feeling when they decide on it.
🤖 AI, Robots, and Attention Deficits
Let’s not forget what lit the fire under this latest move. Back in January, Elon posted on X that he was “uncomfortable growing Tesla to be a leader in AI & robotics” without more control. It was a public shakedown — and apparently it worked.
Tesla’s ambitious AI goals — full self-driving software, Optimus the humanoid robot, and a suite of other sci-fi-sounding visions and promises — are largely tied to Musk’s personal involvement. Investors know that without him, these projects could end up shelved… or sold to xAI, his other pet project and owner of X (former Twitter).
🧮 The Math of Mega-Pay
Tesla says the accounting value of the package — after subtracting what Musk would have to pay to exercise the options and adjusting for restrictions — sits at about $23.7 billion. That's about the GDP of Malta and only slightly smaller than the SEC’s collective headache every time Musk tweets.
In return, Musk has to stick around for five years — or at least not officially leave. The board hopes that’s enough to keep him engaged. But the question is: How much is enough to counteract everything else going on?
The man’s worth $350 billion to $400 billion (depending on volatility) and if he wants to build Martian houses or dig tunnels under Paris, a few billion dollars aren’t going to make a difference.
🔀 A Shifting CEO, A Shaky Business?
It’s not just about Elon’s attention span. Tesla’s business hasn’t exactly been smooth sailing. The EV market is more crowded than ever. Sales are dropping in Europe. Tariff threats are buzzing in the background.
On top of that, it’s the earnings season and the Earnings calendar is hot to the touch. In recent quarters, Elon’s perceived absence from the factories have coincided with slumping revenue and nervous investors.
Add in the fact that Elon just exited the Trump administration after a brief stint and dramatic fallout — yes, that happened — and Tesla investors are understandably hoping for a little more focus in the months ahead. Not to mention his new Washington gig — his “America party” political party .
🚗 Is Tesla Still a Growth Story?
Tesla is still the largest EV maker in the US, but the shine has worn off a bit. The Cybertruck’s still not mainstream, Model 3s are getting old, and margins are being squeezed by global competition and pricing wars.
If Musk is serious about staying and building, this could be Tesla’s opportunity to pivot — from hype-driven volatility to sustained, AI-powered growth. But if not, well... there’s SpaceX. Or xAI. Or Neuralink. Or The Boring Company. Or the next startup he tweets into existence.
Off to you : Do you feel like Tesla is paying Elon to stay interested — or rewarding him for prior (and future?) performance. And is that the way to buy loyalty and dedication? Share your thoughts in the comments!
TSLA pivot points suggesting imminent breakoutTSLA is in a tightening pattern, which can of course break either bullish or bearish. given the overall trend and market conditions, I have a bullish lean on it. After doing some pivot point analysis this evening I have shifted the bull break odds even higher in my mind, and not only that, I believe the bull break may be imminent this week.
TSLA Facing Key Resistance – Short Setup Targeting 301 SupportTesla is currently testing a key resistance area formed by the intersection of a descending trendline and a previously tested supply zone around 321.
Price action in this region may lead to a potential rejection.
**Forecast:**
If the rejection is confirmed, I expect a move toward the 301–300 support zone.
This area aligns with prior demand and a technical timing window from my harmonic model.
Trade idea based on trend structure, liquidity zones, and time-based forecast methodology.
📅 Watch price behavior around 321 for confirmation.
📉 Target: 301 support area
TSLA to $450-$500 this year Technicals:
Big Picture: Huge wedge breakout, followed by retest and bounce, and now we are flagging.
2Month Chart: Every time TSLA has had a hammer candle on the 2M chart, we have rallied hard within 2-7 months.
100 SMA on the daily: Everytime TSLA’s daily 100 SMA has gone from an extended downslope to upsloping (with the addition of some wedge breakout or Inverted H&S), it’s been the beginning of a rally.
Fundamentals: While this analysis is primarily technical, Tesla’s long-term prospects, its strong base of loyal investors, and the high level of short interest believing its already over priced- suggests to me that the technicals are signaling a huge run this year to $450-$500+.
TSLA Breaking Out — But Can It Hold Above $320? Aug. 7📊 Technical Analysis (1H + 15-Min Confluence)
TSLA has surged out of its $308–$312 consolidation range with strong bullish momentum. It's now pressing against the key resistance zone just under $320, with clean price structure and a rising trendline.
* Trend: Higher lows with a breakout above structure = bullish continuation bias
* MACD: Bullish crossover + expanding histogram = momentum building
* Stoch RSI: Overbought at 88+ = short-term cooling possible, but not a sell signal on its own
* Volume: Strong breakout volume confirms interest — now needs follow-through above $320
Key Levels to Watch:
* Support Zones:
* $317.50 (micro support)
* $312.35 (breakout base / trendline confluence)
* $308.72 (former top of range)
* Resistance Zones:
* $319.85 (current high)
* $322.50 (major gamma wall)
* $325 → $330.39 (stacked supply above)
Scalping Setup (15-Min View):
* Entry (CALLs): Break and hold above $320
* Target: $322.50 then $325
* Stop: Below $317.50
* Bias: Momentum continuation as long as price holds trendline + VWAP
🔬 GEX-Based Option Sentiment (1H GEX Map)
The options market is now showing significant gamma resistance overhead, making this a crucial inflection zone:
* CALL Walls:
* $319.85 = 2nd CALL Wall (95.21%) — this is where price is currently pausing
* $322.50 = 3rd CALL Wall (86.55%)
* $325–$330 = GEX10/GEX7 cluster — potential fade zone
* PUT Support:
* $305 = HVL + strong buyer interest
* $300 = -26.58% PUT Wall
* $297.83 = 3rd PUT Wall — major dealer de-hedging zone
* Net GEX Bias:
* Positive GEX above $312.50 → bullish momentum slows as dealers hedge
* Below $305 = faster downside risk (gamma unwind)
* IVR 5.5, IVx Avg 51.4 → IV drop = favorable for buying options, not selling them
🎯 Options Trade Ideas:
* Bullish Swing (Speculative Breakout):
* Entry: Break > $322.50
* Target: $325 / $330
* Stop: < $317.5
* Bearish Fade (Gamma Cap Reversal):
* Entry: Reject below $320 with stalling momentum
* Target: $312.5 / $308
* Stop: Close > $322.5
⚠️ My Thoughts:
TSLA is at a key gamma inflection point. Price structure supports more upside, but dealer positioning above $322.5 may cap momentum unless volume forces a squeeze. Use trendline and VWAP confluence as your confirmation anchors — and watch for failed breakout traps into overhead gamma zones.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
TSLA – Testing Key Gamma & Structure Levels. TA for Aug. 6TSLA – Testing Key Gamma & Structure Levels
Technical Overview
TSLA has been consolidating just under a key resistance zone at 310–312, which also aligns with the highest positive GEX / gamma resistance area. Price is forming a higher-low structure off the 303–305 support trendline, suggesting buyers are still defending key levels despite recent selling pressure.
MACD is flattening out and Stoch RSI is cycling near mid-range, indicating a potential momentum build but no confirmed breakout yet.
GEX / Options Sentiment
* Gamma Resistance: Heavy call wall at 312 with 52% concentration, and further stacked resistance into 320–325. This creates a ceiling unless strong bullish momentum steps in.
* Gamma Support: Large put positioning at 300 (-64% concentration) and 295 acting as a key defensive floor.
* Dealer Positioning: Above 312, gamma flip could drive momentum toward 320–325 quickly. Below 300, dealer hedging could accelerate selling into 295 and possibly 290.
Trade Scenarios
Bullish Case
* Trigger: Break & hold above 312 with volume.
* Target 1: 320
* Target 2: 325
* Stop: <305
Bearish Case
* Trigger: Close below 300 with momentum.
* Target 1: 295
* Target 2: 290
* Stop: >312
Options Thoughts
* Bullish: Consider short-term calls if price breaks above 312 with strong volume and momentum confirmation.
* Bearish: Consider puts targeting 300 if rejection occurs at 310–312 and sellers regain control.
* Neutral / Premium Selling: Selling an iron condor around 295–325 could work if expecting continued range trading until a catalyst emerges.
📌 My Take: TSLA is coiling for a decisive move. GEX shows a tight battle between 312 call resistance and 300 put support. A break in either direction could lead to a fast expansion move. I’m leaning neutral-to-bullish as long as 305 holds, but I’ll switch bearish if 300 breaks.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk accordingly.
TSLA Don't Miss Out
### 🔥 TradingView Viral Post Format 🔥
---
### 📢 **Title:**
**TSLA Options Surge? \$330 Call Could Double in 3 Days — Here's the Setup** 🚀📈
---
### 📝 **Description:**
Tesla’s options market is flashing **moderate bullish signals** this week! 📊
✔️ Call/Put Ratio: **1.39** (Bullish)
✔️ RSI (Daily & Weekly): **Rising**
⚠️ Volume is light, but sentiment leans bullish.
🎯 **Trade Idea:**
Buy TSLA \$330 Call (Exp: Aug 8)
💰 Entry: \$0.85
🎯 Target: \$1.70
🛑 Stop: \$0.43
⏱️ Confidence: 65%
⚡ Gamma risk rising with time decay — tight execution is key.
Is this the breakout or a bull trap? Let’s watch it play out 👀
👇 Drop your thoughts or setups in the comments!
---
### 🏷️ **Tags (for TradingView):**
```
#TSLA #Tesla #OptionsTrading #CallOptions #BullishSetup #TSLAOptions #StockMarket #WeeklySetup #TradingStrategy #TechnicalAnalysis #TradeIdea #MomentumTrade #UnusualOptionsActivity #TradingView
Tesla wedge and volatilityTesla has been riding this wedge downward after a false breakout on terrible earnings. BBWP has flashed blue, which has not happened since 2017, which is a signal for me. Stochastic has reset, and a stall candle is forming. Volume is generally up.
My plan:
TSLL shares, possible cash secured puts
Sitting Right on the 200-Day EMATSLA is sitting right on the 200-Day EMA here while holding this wedge for quite some time. TSLA's Bollinger Bands are starting to squeeze, indicating a significant move is forthcoming, and moving averages (MA 5/10/30/60) are flattening, indicating a loss of bullish momentum. It will be interesting to watch from here.
7/24/25 - $tsla - Duh 7/24/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:TSLA
Duh
- ppl focused on ST FCF (all over X!) is 100% of the reason why when you put the pieces together, you realize that while ST this might not behave like anyone expects... LT, TSLA is v likely going to in, elon's own words, be the largest cap in the history of capital markets
- two leading robots with leadership position in IRL AI
- profitable, is all that matters
- have not yet hit the S-curve
was super lucky to trim some of this last week
now i'm back to sizing into a full position, not yet there like on that silly political dump, but i'm nearly 10% (20% is my max size).
V
Shorted TSLA 319 Look at TSLA hit 50 day and 200 day MA and failed and know under them
Look at the lower highs and see the stoch heading down
Know lets look weekly stoch heading down and lower highs
Target is 100 day ma 294.22 take some off. When it breaks will add back on
Have trailing stop in place
Cyclical Stocks vs Non-Cyclical Stocks: How Can You Trade Them?Cyclical Stocks vs Non-Cyclical Stocks: How Can You Trade Them?
Not every stock is created equal. One of the biggest distinctions is cyclical vs non-cyclical—those that grow or decline alongside economic conditions and those that are less sensitive. In this article, we explore the key differences between the two, how to analyse both, and how to trade them.
What Are Cyclical Stocks?
Cyclical stocks are those that rise and fall in line with the broader economy. They’re more sensitive to consumer spending and include those in the travel, automotive, construction, and luxury goods sectors.
Simply put, when consumers have more disposable income, they’re likely to buy new cars, travel abroad, or invest in home improvements. Demand boosts corporate earnings and pushes share prices higher. However, when consumers have less money or face economic uncertainty, they reduce and delay spending on these discretionary purchases, dampening company earnings and stock valuations.
Nike and Starbucks are good examples here—both are cyclical companies that see higher demand when consumers are in a stronger financial position and feel comfortable purchasing brand-name clothes or buying coffee on the go.
Cyclical stocks tend to be more volatile than non-cyclical ones. Their sensitivity to cyclical business conditions offers potential opportunities for traders to capitalise on a growth phase, but timing matters—getting caught in a temporary or prolonged downturn can lead to sharp drawdowns.
Cyclical Sectors
- Automotive
- Airlines & Travel
- Luxury Goods & Apparel
- Construction & Materials
- Banking & Financial Services
- Technology & Semiconductors
- Restaurants & Entertainment
- Retail (Discretionary Spending)
Is Tesla a Cyclical Stock?
Yes, Tesla is a cyclical stock. Demand for electric vehicles moves in line with economic conditions, consumer spending, and interest rates.
Is Amazon a Cyclical Stock?
Amazon is partly cyclical. Its retail business depends on consumer spending but its cloud computing division (AWS) sees constant demand and provides diversification.
What Are Non-Cyclical Stocks?
Non-cyclical stocks belong to companies that sell essential goods and services. Contrasting with cyclical stocks and their sensitivity to consumer spending, non-cyclical companies sell things people buy regardless of economic conditions. They’re often referred to as defensive stocks because they tend to hold up when the economy weakens.
Non-cyclical sectors include healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples. Supermarkets, pharmaceutical companies, and electricity providers see relatively steady demand because people still need food, medicine, and power whether the economy is growing or contracting.
For example, consumer non-cyclical stocks, like Procter & Gamble, which owns brands like Oral-B, Charmin, and Gillette, continue to generate revenue year-round because consumers still buy everyday household items. The same goes for Johnson & Johnson, which sells medical products that hospitals and pharmacies need.
Compared to cyclical stocks, non-cyclical stocks are usually less volatile because their earnings are more consistent. While their potential returns are relatively limited vs their more growth-oriented cyclical counterparts, non-cyclical stocks are believed to not dive as sharply during a downturn.
Non-Cyclical Sectors
- Consumer Staples (Everyday Goods)
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals
- Utilities (Electricity, Water, Gas)
- Telecommunications
- Grocery & Essential Retail
- Defence & Aerospace
How Traders Analyse Cyclical Stocks
In a market where going long or short volatile cyclical stocks is an option (such as with CFDs), many prefer to trade them over non-cyclical stocks. More broadly, traders analyse a few key indicators to determine whether cyclical stocks are in a growth phase.
Macroeconomic Indicators
When GDP expands, businesses and consumers spend more, and free-flowing spending boosts demand in cyclical sectors. Similarly, interest rates determine spending on more big-ticket purchases, like cars, homes, and luxury goods. Lower interest rates encourage borrowing and vice versa.
Employment rates also play a key role. More layoffs and a higher unemployment rate mean consumers dial back purchases of discretionary goods and services. Employment conditions, along with economic and policy uncertainty, drive consumer confidence. When optimism is high, cyclical stocks often rally.
Earnings Trends & Sector Data
Unlike non-cyclical companies, cyclical firms see earnings fluctuate based on economic cycles. Traders pay attention to quarterly reports and especially forward guidance. If a company expects strong sales growth due to rising demand, this can drive its stock price higher and possibly signal an upswing in the sector.
Industry-specific data, like auto sales figures or airline bookings, is also a useful gauge for assessing the future performance of a company.
Market Sentiment & Seasonal Trends
Cyclical stocks are prone to seasonal patterns—retailers surge in the holiday season, while travel stocks perform well in summer. Market sentiment is another important factor; for instance, if economic uncertainty is growing but investors on the whole believe it to be a temporary blip, then cyclical stocks may still rise.
Analysing Non-Cyclical Stocks
While traders often favour cyclical stocks for their higher potential returns, many still turn to non-cyclical companies as a possible form of short-term defence against downturns, to balance a long-term portfolio, or when unique occasions arise (earnings reports, company-specific news, etc.).
Earnings Stability & Cash Flow
Since non-cyclical companies sell essential goods and services, their earnings tend to be more consistent. Traders look at revenue trends, gross margins, and free cash flow to assess a firm’s ability to generate relatively steady income. Consistent earnings—even during downturns—can be a marker of a strong non-cyclical stock.
Dividend History & Payout Ratios
Many non-cyclical stocks pay dividends. That makes them attractive for those looking for income-generating assets. A company with a long track record of consistent or growing dividend payments is often a sign of financial strength. The payout ratio (dividends paid as a percentage of earnings) is another metric traders examine—too high, and it could indicate unsustainable distributions.
Market Conditions & Defensive Rotation
If economic uncertainty rises, investors will generally shift into defensive sectors like healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples. Many will monitor fund flows—where institutional money managing exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, and large portfolios is headed—to understand if risk aversion is growing.
Likewise, outperformance in certain sectors can be a signal. If sector indices like the S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index or the S&P 500 Healthcare Index outperform the overall S&P 500, it may indicate capital moving into non-cyclical stocks.
Trading Cyclical and Non-Cyclical Stocks
Now, let’s take a closer look at how traders engage with these stocks.
Short-Term Trading
Short-term traders generally focus on stocks or sectors expected to move over hours or days. One strategy might be to examine the broader conditions and trade ahead of earnings reports. If summer is approaching and the economy is doing well, Delta Air Lines could rise in the weeks before an earnings release as traders anticipate strong quarterly performance and positive forward guidance.
Another strategy is trading macro themes. If inflation rises, traders might focus on companies with strong pricing power, like consumer staples firms that can pass costs onto consumers. If economic data points to a slowdown, they might focus on healthcare stocks.
Medium-Term Trading
Medium-term traders take a broader view and typically adjust their portfolio weightings based on economic conditions. During expansions, they may overweight cyclicals like construction and travel stocks, while shifting into non-cyclicals as recession risks grow. That could mean just rebalancing a collection of ETFs, over/under-weighting a set of stocks, or a mix of both.
Here, the focus is usually on broader economic trends while also staying alert for possible strengthening or weakening consumer demand.
Long-Term Trading
Long-term traders often hold a mix of cyclical and non-cyclical stocks to maintain a balanced portfolio across economic cycles. While they may still adjust weightings over time, they tend to be more concerned with long-term sector trends and income generation.
With a longer time horizon, these traders may be more willing to allocate more capital to cyclical stocks during a downturn, especially to otherwise strong companies or sectors, to take advantage of potential rebounds months down the line.
The Bottom Line
Understanding the difference between cyclical and non-cyclical stocks is fundamental to trading them. Careful analysis—macroeconomic, sectoral, and company-specific—can help traders identify potential opportunities across all time horizons.
FAQ
What Are Examples of Cyclical Stocks?
Cyclical stocks include Tesla (TSLA), Delta Air Lines (DAL), Nike (NKE), Caterpillar (CAT), Marriott International (MAR), and Ford (F).
Which Industries Are Most Cyclical?
Highly cyclical industries include automotive, airlines, hospitality, construction, luxury goods, and consumer discretionary retail.
Is Coca-Cola a Cyclical Stock?
No, Coca-Cola is considered a non-cyclical stock. Demand for its wide range of products remains stable regardless of economic conditions.
Is Starbucks a Cyclical Stock?
Yes, Starbucks is a cyclical stock. Coffee purchases aren’t essential, so demand fluctuates based on disposable income and consumer confidence.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Bearish Pennant & Long Term Bearish DivergenceBearish pennant formed and sharp bearish divergence on the RSI, Elon personally receiving billions from the pockets of the company. This alludes to possible instability on the inside, despite being up a significant amount this year. Companies are like icebergs, cracks on the surface run deep, negative information is repressed.
In my opinion, a drawdown of over 25% seems in order
TSLA Attempting Breakout – Watching $312 Key Level. Aug. 5TSLA Attempting Breakout – Watching $312 Key Level 🚀
Technical Overview (1H)
TSLA is consolidating just below the critical $312 resistance, aligning with the Highest Positive GEX and 2nd Call Wall (57.55%). A breakout above this level could trigger a gamma squeeze toward $317.5 and potentially $325.
Support sits at $300 (Major Put Support -58.42%). If this fails, bears could push toward $295 and $290. Price is currently forming a falling wedge, a bullish reversal pattern if confirmed.
GEX & Options Flow Insights
* Highest Positive GEX: $312 – Strong resistance; breaking above can fuel upside momentum.
* Major Call Walls: $317.5, $325 – Profit-taking zones for bulls.
* Major Put Support: $300 – Bears will defend here; losing it invites heavier selling.
* Call/Put Positioning: CALLs 31.3% vs Puts – Skew still leans slightly bullish, but gamma flip is near $300.
My Thoughts
TSLA is coiling for a potential move. As long as price holds above $300, the risk/reward still favors a bullish breakout play. However, failure to clear $312 could see a pullback into $305–$300 range before another attempt.
Trade Ideas
Bullish Scenario:
* Entry: On a breakout above $312 with strong volume
* Targets: $317.5 → $325
* Stop-Loss: Below $305
Bearish Scenario:
* Entry: Rejection at $312 and loss of $305
* Targets: $300 → $295
* Stop-Loss: Above $315
15-Minute Short-Term Setup
* Intraday traders should watch for a mini breakout retest above $310 for scalps to $312+.
* If $307 fails intraday, momentum could stall toward $304–$302.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
TESLA Lagging BehindA compelling reason to buy Tesla stock now—despite it being beaten down—is the asymmetric risk-reward setup driven by its depressed valuation relative to long-term growth potential. Sentiment is currently low due to concerns about EV demand, competition, and Elon’s distractions, but this pessimism is largely priced in. Meanwhile, Tesla still holds massive optionality: AI-driven autonomy, energy storage, and Dojo supercomputing. If even one of these verticals scales meaningfully, current prices may prove a generational entry.
At the moment, we are hitting some of my key support levels being the anchored vwap from the low , as well as the previous Value Area High range retest within the formation of this broader triangle, suggesting a potential continuation to the upside should we get a strong breakout.
I will be watching for further down side as the current risk is only approx 6-7% for a potential upside of 60%-70% , a massive Risk to reward.
Should this reclaim the downtrend vwap, it can be a strong sign of strength for this stock to move back to ATH's as tesla is massively lagging behind.