Trade ideas
TSLA maybe retest support near 360$ but target is 700$Price is near channel resistance and red trendline sell pressure zone so we can expect short-term fall here like the red arrow but soon after that short-term fall we can expect heavy gain here like the green arrow on chart and targets like 600$ and more also if the red trendline break valid to the upside without that correction target can hit.
DISCLAIMER: ((trade based on your own decision))
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A Top for Tesla?Tesla ended the third quarter on a strong note, but some traders may see risk of the EV maker stalling.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the $463 price area. TSLA peaked at that level twice last December before reversing lower. Sellers appeared around the same level this month, which may confirm resistance is in place.
Second, the rejection day featured a higher high and lower low. That bearish outside candle is a potential reversal pattern.
Next, MACD has turned lower. Notice how previous downward reversals corresponded with deeper price declines. (Marked by white arrows in the lower study.)
Finally, TSLA is an active underlier in the options market. (Its average volume of 2.7 million contracts in the last month ranks first in the S&P 500, according to TradeStation data.) That could help traders take positions with calls and puts.
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Fibonacci: Theory and Practice (Part 1) RetracementsThe Fibonacci proportions are a widely used technical tool in financial markets. They are based on the Fibonacci sequence, a numerical series introduced to the West by the Italian mathematician Leonardo de Pisa (13th century) after his travels in the Mediterranean (especially in Béjaïa, Algeria): 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144..., where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones.
Although Ralph Nelson Elliott incorporated concepts related to Fibonacci ratios in his wave theory (published in 1938), it was Charles Collins who first explicitly used price retracements and extensions in the 1940s.
I will divide the content into three parts to enhance understanding of this approach: Fibonacci Retracements, Fibonacci Extensions, and Harmonic Alignments.
Fibonacci Ratios
In trading, the sequence itself is not used directly but rather its ratios, which approximate natural proportions observed in nature, art, and price patterns.
The ratio of any number to the next higher number approaches 0.618 after the first four numbers. For example, 1/1 is 1.00, 1/2 is 0.50, 2/3 is 0.67, 3/5 is 0.60, 5/8 is 0.625, 8/13 is 0.615, 13/21 is 0.619, etc. (pay attention to the value 0.50).
The ratio of any number to the preceding lower number is approximately 1.618, or the inverse of 0.618. For example, 13/8 is 1.625, 21/13 is 1.615, 34/21 is 1.619. The higher the numbers, the closer they get to 0.618 and 1.618.
The ratios of alternate numbers approximate 2.618 or its inverse, 0.382. For example, 13/34 is 0.382, 34/13 is 2.615.
0.786 is the square root of 0.618.
Personal Perspective on Fibonacci Proportions
None of the ratios we will explore below possess magical properties. The truly decisive factor is price action, which acts as a mirror of the collective psychology of investors. Fibonacci proportions are excellent for highlighting proportionality and harmony, aspects that directly influence participants' decisions. This is where the importance of this approach lies.
Fibonacci Retracement Adjustments
In Figure 1, you can see how to correctly draw Fibonacci retracements in an uptrend: from bottom to top, from the low of the impulse (1) (including the lower wicks or shadows) to the upper high (2) (considering its wicks or shadows). The clearer and more defined these impulses are, the greater their influence on market participants' psychology. Clarity ensures better results when studying tools, indicators, or price action.
I discard the 0.236 level in my trading, but you can include it and experiment.
Timeframe is also important to consider: applying Fibonacci on 5-minute charts, for example, would be like trying to control the ocean with a measuring tape. As I demonstrated in the article “Timeframe is Everything” , lower timeframes degrade the success rate due to the greater influence of news and rumors, high-frequency trading, lower capitalization, and interests, etc.
If the drawing is incorrect, the values will not match those in the image, and the diagonal line will point downward.
Figure 1
In Figure 2, I show the correct drawing of Fibonacci retracements in a downtrend, from top to bottom, from the high of the impulse (1) (including the lower wicks or shadows) to the low (2) (considering its wicks or shadows). If the drawing is incorrect, the values will not match, and the diagonal line will point upward.
Figure 2:
Psychology of the Ratios
Ratio 0.382
This ratio is extremely useful for avoiding premature entries in favor of the trend. In my experience, in most cases, we should wait for the price to touch the 0.382 level unless a consistent price formation justifies a trend continuation.
This level indicates a typical retracement zone, making it ideal for detecting "pauses" in strong trends. It is also necessary that entries at this and other ratios we will study are validated by price action and context.
In Figure 3, you can observe how the price offers an excellent reversal opportunity at the 0.382 Fibonacci level. A previously respected 50 EMA and a strong point like the 50% of the body of a weekly engulfing candle increase the robustness of the zone. The confirmation of price action manifests in increased volumes that may signal a likely reversal and a bullish engulfing candle.
Figure 3
I won’t provide examples in downtrends for this level, as the buying pressure inherent in market nature makes short entries based on the 0.382 level very unstable. Thus, this ratio is primarily evident in uptrends.
Ratio 0.50
It is generally believed that this ratio does not belong to the Fibonacci sequence, but 0.50 is a harmonic starting point in the progression.
It marks a balance between supply and demand, thus serving as a psychological magnet that tends to attract the price while delineating a battle zone between buyers and sellers.
In Figure 4, you can see the correct use of the level: The 0.50 ratio is perfectly aligned with the presence of a 50 SMA and price action elements like a ceiling test , offering extremely robust resistance. An island gap pattern is an excellent reversal signal to confirm a short entry.
Figure 4
In Figure 5, we observe the alignment of the 0.50 level with the presence of a large gap acting as robust support. Additionally, the level coincides with the 50% of the body of a bullish engulfing candle on a weekly chart, adding significant confidence. The price action would confirm an entry with a large bullish engulfing candle.
Figure 5
Ratio 0.618 (Golden Ratio)
The 0.618 ratio is a universal "equilibrium point" in crowd psychology; the place where many investors expect a bounce, as it represents a deep but not exhaustive correction.
Studies and tests (such as those by Robert Prechter in Elliott Wave Principle ) show that the 61.8% level appears in up to 70% of significant corrections in indices like the S&P 500 or Dow Jones, while behavioral economists argue that its "success" is more due to confirmation bias than strict causality.
In Figure 6, we observe how the golden ratio (0.618) aligns with a high order volume zone (volume profile). The noticeable weakness in price action, graphically represented in oscillators like the MACD (bearish divergence), combined with a volume spike, could provide clues about a likely rejection in the zone.
Figure 6
In Figure 7, we observe a bullish example where the 0.618 level aligns with a strong support generated by accumulation. Note how this zone shows a high order volume (volume profile). This support was also backed by a 20 EMA on a weekly chart. The price action would confirm the entry after several rejection candles.
Figure 7
Ratio 0.786
This is my favorite Fibonacci retracement ratio, and I use it exclusively to seek reversals in uptrends. It indicates trend weakness, but I like to consider it a high-probability reaction zone, as selling pressure in such a deep correction tends to be weak, while large participants or institutions may see a good opportunity to buy low.
I apply this ratio exclusively to double bottoms, as seen in Figures 8 and 9.
Figure 8
Figure 9
In Figure 8, the 0.786 level aligns with the 50% of a monthly engulfing candle and a large gap visible on the daily chart. Additionally, volume and a large engulfing candle pattern would have confirmed the entry well.
Figure 9 shows an alignment between the 0.786 level and a strong support on the daily chart. In the same zone, a 20 EMA on a weekly chart coincides. The price action confirmation manifests in compression and an explosion of bullish volatility.
Fun Facts
1-Leonardo de Pisa (or Leonardo Pisano) was born around 1170 in Pisa, Italy, and was the son of Guglielmo Bonacci, a commercial official working in North Africa.
The nickname Fibonacci comes from "filius Bonacci," which in Latin literally means "son of Bonacci." He signed his works as "Leonardo, son of Bonacci, Pisan," but the term "Fibonacci" was shortened and popularized centuries later.
2-The Fibonacci numerical series actually dates back to ancient Indian texts (such as those by Pingala in the 2nd century BC, used for poetic meter).
3-Leonardo de Pisa popularized the numerical series in Western Europe through his book, Liber Abaci (1202), where he used it to solve practical problems, such as rabbit population growth (the famous example: a pair of rabbits produces a sequence of births generating the numbers 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8...).
Conclusions
Fibonacci proportions are a valuable complement, but not the holy grail. In my strategies, I find them extremely useful and feel comfortable incorporating them in specific contexts, though not all systems require them. For example, I like having a Fibonacci at hand in patterns like double bottoms to identify key supports or when a price overextends or retraces strongly, delineating potential reversal zones.
I recommend that investors avoid chasing mystical numerical alignments and maintain a logical approach to each tool, method, or pattern studied.
Final Note
If you want to take a look at my analysis record, you can find my profile in Spanish, where I transparently share well-defined market entries. Send your good vibes if you enjoyed this article, and may God bless you all.
TSLA: My Final StrategyNASDAQ:TSLA ⚠️ Entering markdown phase.
Breakdown under 447 confirms structural weakness.
First liquidity target → 413 → 377, then 318 if macro risk expands.
VolanX DSS bias: 70% bearish. Only reclaim >465 flips trend.
#TSLA #VolanX #AITrading #WaverVanir #SmartMoneyConcepts
WaverVanir ⚡ To grow and conquer
Not Investment Advice
Tesla: Top Established!Tesla initially hit a new high before quickly reversing course with a notable move to the downside. As a result, we now view the corrective upward movement of beige wave x as complete and anticipate further sell-offs as part of wave y. The stock is expected to gradually break below the support levels at $297.83 and $215.01, ultimately reaching our blue Target Zone between $157.88 and $46.70, which we have identified for the final corrective low of blue wave (II). However, there remains a 40% chance that TSLA will not reach the blue zone at all but instead will break out directly above resistance at $532.92. In this case, we would consider blue wave alt.(II) already complete and locate the stock in a sustained (magenta) upward impulse. Even in our primary scenario, the new uptrend of the regular wave (III) is ultimately expected to surpass the $532.92 resistance.
The 7 Killers That Make You Lose Money in TradingTrading isn’t easy; in fact, it’s one of the most complicated ways to make money in the financial world.
I know that’s not what the mainstream narrative tells you. The same narrative that warns “more than 90% of traders lose money” also sells the illusion that you’ll be part of the 10% who don’t, because deep down, we all think we’re different, smarter, faster, more capable than the crowd.
But if you strip away emotion and bias and read that statistic correctly, it’s a harsh truth: you have less than a 10% probability of long-term success. That’s not pessimism; that’s probability. And probability doesn’t lie. Every day, it quietly proves that most “special” traders end up broke, not because markets are unfair, but because they misread the numbers that could have saved them.
After more than 20 years in this game, I’ve noticed one thing every losing trader has in common: they ignore what’s painfully obvious. Trading is numbers in an uncertain world.
Numbers mean math. Put math in an uncertain environment, and the only way to handle it is through probability. Yet most traders fight this reality, chasing signals, news, or “gut feelings” instead of learning how probability actually runs the game.
After working with hundreds of losing traders, I found that this blindness leads to seven recurring mistakes: the same ones that keep the losing rate stuck above 90%.
1. Mistake: Trying to Predict Instead of Projecting
The moment you believe you need to know where the market’s going, you’ve already lost your edge. By definition, the future is uncertain; anything can happen. No system or algorithm can change that.
The game changes when you stop trying to predict what the market will do and start projecting how your account will behave under uncertainty. It’s not about guessing direction; it’s about managing outcomes.
Probability reminds us that uncertainty isn’t our enemy, it’s our playing field. Without it, there would be no opportunity. Don’t focus on prediction; learn to handle what the market does and control its impact on your account value.
📖 Referenced posts: “In a World of Chances, Probability is the King” and “The True Laser Vision in Trading.”
2. Mistake: Judging Success Trade by Trade
If you judge your system by a single trade, you’re missing the point. Trading isn’t a sprint; it’s a marathon. Your edge doesn’t live in one trade, it appears in the average of many.
Focusing on each result drags you into an emotional roller coaster, the highs of winning and the lows of losing. In reality, you’re not reacting to truth; you’re reacting to variance, and variance loves to mislead.
The real measure of your system (your expectancy) doesn’t care about your last trade. It only reveals itself after enough repetitions, as the law of large numbers smooths out noise and exposes your true average performance.
If you want peace of mind, stop zooming in on the moment. Zoom out and focus on the mean, the expected value of your account. That’s the mindset that turns emotions into data and chaos into clarity.
📖 Referenced posts: “Sharpening Your Trading Focus” and “Spying on Your Trading Future.”
3. Mistake: Not Accepting Losses as Part of the Process
I’ve seen it countless times: new traders obsessed with their win rate. Almost every candidate I’ve mentored asks the same question before hiring me: “What’s your winning rate?”
And I get it. In a world obsessed with prediction, it feels natural to think accuracy equals success. But that’s where I correct them: we’re not here to predict; we’re here to make money.
Instead of asking how often a trader is right, ask, “How much money does he keep after losses?” That’s the question that shifts focus from ego to expectancy, from being right to being profitable.
📖 Referenced posts: “Decoding Trading Odds: Demystifying Probability”.
4. Mistake: Misjudging Probability as Too Complicated
Many traders avoid thinking in probabilities because they believe it’s too mathematical. They prefer indicators because they seem easier and more visible. I get it, not everyone loves math. But in trading, probability isn’t complex theory; it’s practical logic.
Think about predicting the weather. When you see a small gray cloud, you don’t say, “It will rain.” You say, “It might rain.” That’s probabilistic thinking: assigning likelihood instead of claiming certainty.
Trading works the same way. Every trade is its own weather forecast. You can’t predict what will happen, but you can estimate what’s likely and prepare for both outcomes. Once you see probability as a decision framework, you stop reacting emotionally and start thinking strategically.
📖 Referenced posts: “In a World of Chances, Probability is the King” and “Decoding Trading Odds: Demystifying Probability.”
5. Mistake: Overleveraging Your Edge
Even with a profitable system, betting too big turns strategy into suicide. Leverage doesn’t just multiply gains; it magnifies mistakes. I’ve seen many good traders destroy solid systems because they couldn’t stay anchored to steady, safe growth. They wanted to accelerate the curve.
But here’s the truth: every time you increase position size, you also increase your risk of ruin exponentially. Great traders know success isn’t about how fast you can grow, but how long you can keep growing.
It’s even worse for traders who don’t know if they have an edge at all. Leverage in the wrong hands is like a driver who thinks that because he can handle a Tesla, he can drive an F1 car. He’s not compounding; he’s just going to hit the wall faster.
And the market knows that. That’s why those aggressive leverage offers exist, they want your money fast.
Knowing how to play the long game is the real alpha.
📖 Referenced posts: “Spying on Your Trading Future” and “Risk Management: The Engine of Expectancy” (upcoming).
6. Mistake: Misunderstanding Variance and Calling It Bad Luck
When things go wrong, most traders think they’re bad traders, or they blame their system and rush to replace it. Or worse, they believe the markets are rigged. In reality, they just don’t understand variance.
Variance is when you take three losses in a row despite perfect setups. It’s not betrayal or bad luck; it’s randomness doing its job. Every system has a natural distribution of wins and losses, and they’ll always appear randomly. Sometimes you’ll win, sometimes you’ll lose. No rule or model can predict exactly when. That’s not broken; that’s just markets being markets.
Neither streak defines your edge, they’re both part of the math. That’s why only expectancy can tell you if you have an edge or just luck.
When traders don’t understand variance, they take it personally. A losing streak feels like punishment; a winning streak feels like mastery. Both are illusions. Expectancy, the expected value of your account, doesn’t care about your feelings. It only reveals your edge over a large enough sample, when randomness smooths out and the real average emerges.
Accept variance as part of the process and trading becomes calmer, simpler, and much more rational.
📖 Referenced posts: “Spying on Your Trading Future” and “Sharpening Your Trading Focus.”
7. Mistake: Replacing Numbers and Logic with Dopamine and Emotion
One of the hardest habits to break in new traders is their need for dopamine. Many don’t come to the market to trade; they come to feel something. They treat trading like entertainment — constant stimulation, adrenaline, and fast feedback.
A typical beginner believes trading means dozens of short-term trades per day, with stops and targets hit constantly, like scrolling through TikTok. Each trade becomes another “like,” another hit of excitement.
I often tell my students, “If you’re here for entertainment, go to the cinema, or better yet, go to Las Vegas. It’ll cost you less, and you’ll leave happier.”
Trading isn’t a game of dopamine; it’s a game of data and probabilities. The more you chase emotional highs, the further you drift from logic and expectancy. When you trade emotions instead of numbers, you stop trading your system and start trading your mood.
📖 Referenced posts: “Sharpening Your Trading Focus” and “The True Laser Vision in Trading.”
Bonus: Trusting the Wrong Sources
Here’s an uncomfortable question: if 90% of traders lose money, what are the odds that most trading education actually works?
If we apply probability to information itself, we’d infer that 90% of the “trading wisdom” online is more likely to produce losses than profits. In other words, there’s a 90% chance your guru is wrong. And that’s before considering how many truly successful traders never share what really works.
So ask yourself: if most people fail, does it make sense to follow what most people do? There’s no formal proof for this, but after two decades in the game, I’ve seen the pattern repeat endlessly. The crowd follows the same noisy ideas... and the crowd loses.
It may not be a comfortable truth, but sometimes the truth that shocks you is the one that sets you free.
Final Thought
Most traders don’t lose because they lack talent; they lose because they fight probability instead of using it. Trading is uncertainty made measurable — a game of math, mindset, and patience.
Learn to think like a risk manager, not a fortune teller.
And remember, if you’re here for entertainment, go to Las Vegas. It’ll cost you less, and you’ll probably leave happier.
Throughout this post, I’ve referenced other entries that explore each of these mistakes in more depth. They’re all part of the How To Lambo series, where I keep breaking down the probabilistic view of trading in plain language: practical, rigorous, and free of jargon.
If you haven’t read them yet, I highly recommend starting with “Probability is the King” and “The True Laser Vision in Trading.”
Is this Tesla / Palantir fractal showing both will hit ATH soon?Fractals are a mathmatical anomaly, if you understand linear equations (and believe the market is "random"). All assets are doing the same patterns over and over, on all time frames. You just need to see it for what it is.
May the trends be with you.
This happened today TSLA 453.25 Bullish entry above 456.00/460.00 if the open is in this area. If the open is below 452.00, we can expect this to be the 440.00 area with a possible rebound, providing an upside opportunity. If the 440.00 level is lost, we can only enter bearishly below 436.00/432.00 (a possible downside target of 419.00) (a possible upside target of 488.54)
www.tradingview.com
This happened today TSLA 453.25www.tradingview.com
Bullish entry above 456.00/460.00 if the open is in this area. If the open is below 452.00, we can expect this to be the 440.00 area with a possible rebound, providing an upside opportunity. If the 440.00 level is lost, we can only enter bearishly below 436.00/432.00 (a possible downside target of 419.00) (a possible upside target of 488.54)
$TSLA | Premium Rejection → Gap Fill WatchNASDAQ:TSLA ⚡ | Premium Rejection → Gap Fill Watch
We’re sitting right at the previous premium sell zone (~$454) — liquidity likely being tested.
Volume rising into resistance, RSI >70, and volatility increasing — signs of distribution.
If bears hold under 454, I expect a retracement toward $420 → $405 to fill the gap zone this week.
Only a confirmed close above 456 invalidates the bearish setup.
Gap fills usually move fast once liquidity flips — and this one has the volatility fuel to do it.
#TSLA #WaverVanir #VolanX #SMC #LiquidityMap #AITrading #SmartMoneyConcepts #Tesla
Tesla (TSLA) — Symmetrical Triangle Breakout IdeaSummary
Pattern: Symmetrical triangle on daily chart.
Expected timeframe for breakout: Within 1–2 weeks.
Targets: $367 on an upside breakout; $273 on a downside breakout.
Risk management: Use a stop-loss just outside the triangle after breakout confirmation; position size per your risk rules.
Setup & Rationale
A well-defined symmetrical triangle has formed on TSLA’s price action, characterized by converging trendlines connecting lower highs and higher lows. Volume has contracted inside the pattern, consistent with consolidation. Symmetrical triangles are neutral continuation/reversal patterns; the breakout direction provides the trading signal.
Key technical points:
Price is approaching the apex, increasing the likelihood of a decisive breakout in the next 1–2 weeks.
Volume decline during the consolidation and a volume spike on breakout would confirm conviction.
The breakout should be taken after a daily close beyond the upper or lower trendline (or after a retest), not merely intraday probes.
Entry Criteria
Upside trade: Enter long on a daily close above the upper trendline (or on a confirmed retest).
Downside trade: Enter short on a daily close below the lower trendline (or on a confirmed retest).
Targets & Measurement
Measure the pattern height (vertical distance between the initial high and low of the triangle) and project it from the breakout point.
Upside target (projected): $367.
Downside target (projected): $273.
Adjust targets proportionally if you use a measured move from the actual breakout point rather than the pattern’s maximum height.
Stops & Risk Management
Place stop-loss slightly outside the opposite trendline or beyond a recent swing point to avoid false breakouts.
Preferred approach: fixed-risk percent per trade (e.g., 1–2% of portfolio) and scale position size accordingly.
Consider tightening stops to breakeven after price clears ~50% of the distance to the target.
Confirmation: daily close beyond trendline plus above-average volume (up or down depending on direction).
Symmetrical triangles are neutral; false breakouts occur. Wait for confirmation.
News, earnings, or market-wide events can invalidate technical setups quickly—monitor catalysts.
Adjust targets/stops if volatility expands or if the breakout lacks volume confirmation.
You will ask yourself "how did he know Tesla would do that"?On July 29th I suggested Telsa would follow a predicatble path. Price action has unfolded as anicipated every step of the way.
After a long run up, on Oct 1st I suggested that Tesla had topped at my green T1 and would retrace into my red support zone and bonce.
Now that this has played out, the only question that remains is Tesla going lower into my red T1...or simply all time highs from here?
Either way, Tesla may be about to melt faces (few & small retracements). For the next 2-10 weeks Tesla may form a blow off top (*"IF" Telsa continues this pattern). This blow off, will be the end of this bull pattern that I have been following since the April lows. Once Tesla hits my next range ($570-980) I expect a huge dump. I will monitor price action closely, once Tesla is in this next range.
May the trends be with you.
TSLA Oct 7 – At the Edge of a Breakout! Bulls Eyeing $460+ Zone15-Min Chart Analysis (Intraday Trading Setup):
TSLA is riding a sharp ascending wedge structure after a strong rally from the $420s. Price is consolidating near $453.84, right beneath the upper channel line around $455–$456, hinting at a potential breakout or short-term exhaustion.
The MACD remains elevated but is losing histogram momentum — suggesting that while buyers are still in control, short-term strength is cooling. Stoch RSI near 25 shows a possible reset before the next leg higher, a classic pattern after a big push.
If TSLA maintains support above $446.60–$448.00, bulls should watch for continuation toward $454.91 → $460. However, a break below $436.70 would invalidate the bullish micro-structure, potentially sending price toward $430–$428 to retest liquidity.
The 15-min chart shows buyers defending dips aggressively — indicating that institutions are still supporting price action within this rising wedge.
1-Hour GEX Confirmation (Options Sentiment Insight):
The 1-hour GEX data strongly supports the bullish thesis:
* Highest positive NETGEX / CALL resistance sits near $450, which TSLA has already reclaimed — a bullish confirmation that gamma is now supportive, not suppressive.
* CALL walls cluster between $455–$465, forming the next target zone if momentum persists.
* PUT walls remain heavy around $410–$420, providing a sturdy gamma floor.
This configuration reflects a bullish gamma landscape, where dealer positioning favors upward drift as long as TSLA holds above $445. The $450 reclaim may act as a launchpad toward the $460 gamma pocket.
My Thoughts:
TSLA’s recovery from sub-$430 levels shows aggressive reaccumulation and gamma reinforcement from institutions. The near-term wedge consolidation is a healthy pause — not weakness. If buyers can break above $455 with conviction, the next run toward $460–$465 could unfold quickly.
However, caution remains if TSLA slips below $446, as that would reintroduce downside gamma pressure, likely driving a retest of $436–$430 before finding demand again.
Options Outlook (Oct 7–11):
* Bullish setup: Consider 455C or 460C (Oct 11 expiry) if price breaks and holds above $455 with rising volume.
* Bearish scalp: Buy 440P only if price fails at $454.91 and loses $446.60 structure support.
* IV note: IVR 30.5 with IVx 70.1 — volatility remains high, so option premiums are rich; ideal for momentum plays, not range trades.
Conclusion:
TSLA is coiled for a decisive move. The 15-min wedge suggests momentum compression, while the 1-hour GEX map shows strong support below $440 and bullish gamma flow above $450. A confirmed breakout above $455 opens room toward $460–$465, with potential to squeeze higher this week.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
Hello trader, for tomorrow, TSLA: 453.25 10/07/2025 amBullish entry above 456.00/460.00 if the open is in this area. If the open is below 452.00, we can expect this to be the 440.00 area with a possible rebound, providing an upside opportunity. If the 440.00 level is lost, we can only enter bearishly below 436.00/432.00 (a possible downside target of 419.00) (a possible upside target of 488.54)
$TSLA - possible move pre product launchTSLA - Stock moving higher pre product launch tomorrow. Seeing multiple call buyer coming in as well. Stock is in a triangle pattern on the 4 hour time frame bouncing off bottom of the channel. Stock has top of the channel is at $470. bigger move about that level. Stock is decent at the indicator level.
TSLA: As planned...If it isn't obvious to us all by now why we're receiving "surprises", and major company updates after EV credit's are removed, and while sitting at the precipice of all time highs ... These announcements have been prepared long in advance and in anticipation of the EV tax credit's being removed. These "more affordable" vehicles are already in production... The prices are set... FSD v.14 will go mainstream.
This is all just another step towards supplying the roads with as many Tesla's as possible (whilst maintaining profitability on vehicle sales) to continue the ramp towards autonomy at scale.
Perhaps 10/7 is a sell the news event, but this news cycle is worth its shot to push past resistances and sell side pressure.
All I can say is that I am buying as much as I can in this range and definitely anything below the range.
These are my long term perspectives.
Tesla Approaching Key Resistance: Time to Position for a BreakouCurrent Price: $429.83
Direction: LONG
Targets:
- T1 = $445.50
- T2 = $460.00
Stop Levels:
- S1 = $420.00
- S2 = $410.00
**Wisdom of Professional Traders:**
This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, leveraging collective intelligence to identify high-probability trade setups. The wisdom of crowds principle suggests that aggregated market perspectives from experienced professionals often outperform individual forecasts, reducing cognitive biases and highlighting consensus opportunities in Tesla.
**Key Insights:**
Tesla continues to dominate the EV (electric vehicle) market with innovations in autonomous driving and battery technology. Analysts are focusing on the recent announcements about significant manufacturing cost reductions and Tesla's newly introduced Cybertruck deliveries, which are expected in Q4 2025. These developments solidify its position as a leader and provide a catalyst for improving margins. Furthermore, the continued expansion into the energy storage market will diversify revenue streams, offering resilience to economic variations.
From a technical perspective, Tesla is approaching a critical resistance level near $435. If broken, this level could trigger a significant upward momentum as bullish sentiment builds. The recent holding of support above $420 suggests strong institutional confidence in Tesla’s upward potential.
**Recent Performance:**
Tesla’s stock has risen approximately 15% over the last three months, recovering from a dip earlier this year when macroeconomic uncertainty temporarily pressured high-growth tech firms. The stock has shown consistent strength as it rebounded from the $380 level after weaker-than-expected Q2 earnings but has since been buoyed by a positive outlook for Q4. Tesla has seen increased volume in recent weeks, signaling growing trader attention.
**Expert Analysis:**
Many equity analysts remain bullish on Tesla's mid-term trajectory. The company’s recent Q3 earnings report (released last month) revealed impressive year-over-year growth in energy division revenues, while automotive gross margins remained steady despite pricing pressures in China. Technical strategists view the current consolidation just below $435 as preparation for the next leg upwards. Tesla's RSI (Relative Strength Index) remains below overbought levels, leaving room for additional bullish momentum.
**News Impact:**
The announcement of Tesla's advancements in Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology has renewed market interest. Achieving regulatory approval for autonomous driving in key markets like Europe and the U.S. could dramatically expand Tesla's total addressable market. Meanwhile, Elon Musk’s comments on Tesla’s potential new factory locations have reignited speculation about the company’s growth strategy, fueling optimism among investors.
**Trading Recommendation:**
Given Tesla’s strong fundamentals, positive technical setup, and upside potential, initiating a long position at current levels may lead to substantial gains. Traders should watch for a break above $435, which could pave the way for a move to $445.50 (T1) and possibly $460 (T2). Use stops at $420 (S1) and $410 (S2) to manage downside risk effectively. Tesla's position as a market leader, combined with its technical momentum, makes this an attractive opportunity for the current trading window.
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TSLA Testing Critical Support — Will Bulls Reclaim? Oct. 6⚡️
Market Context & Overview (15-Min Chart)
TSLA has been under steady selling pressure, sliding from the $446–450 resistance zone toward the $416–420 support. The 15-minute chart reveals a clear short-term downtrend, marked by a descending trendline and a series of lower highs. However, buyers finally showed signs of life late Friday, creating a rebound attempt above $425 — a minor but notable shift in momentum.
The MACD histogram has turned positive, and the blue line has crossed over the red, suggesting early bullish momentum building up after a short-term exhaustion. The Stoch RSI has curled upward from oversold territory, hinting that the stock may be setting up for a relief bounce if the intraday trendline breaks cleanly above $432–$435.
GEX Confirmation (1H Chart Insight)
The 1-hour GEX (Gamma Exposure) chart adds an important institutional perspective. The highest positive NET GEX sits between $446–$452, aligning with the 2nd and 3rd CALL walls — a significant resistance area where dealer hedging can dampen upside movement unless a strong breakout occurs.
On the downside, heavy PUT walls and support zones rest around $416–$405, reinforcing this as the critical defense zone for bulls. If price holds above $416 early this week, a short-term reversal toward $440+ becomes highly probable as option dealers shift their delta hedging upward.
IVR remains moderate (26.7), with CALL positioning at 62.9%, suggesting sentiment still leans bullish, though not extreme.
Trade Scenarios (for This Week)
Bullish Case:
If TSLA breaks and sustains above $435, expect momentum to accelerate toward $446, and possibly $452, where the next CALL wall sits.
* Entry: Above 435 confirmation
* Target 1: 446
* Target 2: 452
* Stop-Loss: Below 425
Bearish Case:
If price fails to reclaim 435 and breaks back below $420, sellers could retest $416 and possibly sweep toward $405, which is the major PUT support level on GEX.
* Entry: Below 420
* Target 1: 416
* Target 2: 405
* Stop-Loss: Above 430
Options Insight
Given the GEX structure, short-term calls near 430–440 could benefit from a quick bounce play if momentum continues early in the week. Conversely, puts near 420 become favorable only if TSLA fails to break the descending trendline. A balanced gamma landscape this week may create a “whipsaw” environment, so avoid chasing extremes — trade confirmation, not prediction.
My Thoughts: This setup feels like a “pressure build” zone — bears losing momentum but bulls not yet commanding control. A breakout from the descending trendline will likely dictate the week’s tone. The key is whether TSLA can convert $430–$435 into support. A sustained hold above that could quickly trigger gamma-driven buying back toward the mid-$440s.
If it rejects again and volume fades, the PUT side could reload, making $416 the final line before a larger flush. Watch that MACD and Stoch RSI cross — they’re early tells of rotation strength.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own due diligence and manage risk responsibly before trading.






















