TWTR with a monster run this year climbing over 80% ytd, and with such gains a log-scale makes more sense in detecting resistance and support trend lines. The pitchfork seems to be reliable here on the log-scale. With RSI at all time high and such quick rise over the last 45 days resembling a FOMO melt up, this make a solid short term contrarian play.
I like this short term AB=CD pattern to 257.85 which also happens to be the February high mark. Small Caps broke their highs last couple of weeks, then the tech sector joined, looking for Dow to be in catch up mode.
position: short dated ITM call options in $DIA
There's a reason TSLA is one of the most hated stocks on wall street (~31% float shorted) which boils down to free cash flow and net debt load. It appears the more cars Tesla sells the worse the cash flow. This is really an interesting stock to watch over the next few quarters. If TSLA has to raise cash it would probably be dilutive and harmful to common share ...
Tesla has to pull off a scary turn around next few quarters to avoid dilutive capital raise with terrible FCF burn and sluggish production of model 3. Not to mention looming debt maturities totaling +$10B and future competition making news. Looking to test ~250 lows.
A lot of Bearish News has kept the stock market suppressed: core-inflation spike, Consumer Staples sell off, Trade wars, rising interest rates, 'not good enough' earnings season.
Playing contrarian in hopes market spurs short covering from demand zone.
Consumer Staples slump due to amazon effect, higher interest rates, weak earnings performance, trade wars.
Multi-year technical support level and divergence in recent drop from all time high.
Value managers buy the dip. Play the bounce.
I'm predicting some moderate profit taking after a historical run from the Dow. This week appeared to be a weekly shooting star with little movement in this week leading up to the signed bill. Some announcements this week from companies pledging to increase wages... will it be enough to keep investors appetites at these levels? I'm trading the 3x Inverse Dow Jones ...
1) Evening Star before earnings.
2) 1-month and 3-month return change is unsustainable and in my opinion setting up for a black swan earnings potential.
3) When viewing from a log view it's now above upper channel.
-Execution: Small position of OTM put options w/ less 1 month expiration.