Audacity618

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About me Ian Castrovinci, CFA Level III Candidate
Joined Scottsdale, AZ
Trump Trades Reversing.
Markets Allocation
88 % stocks 4 % forex 3 % indices 5 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
PLUG 6% | 16 SPY 5% | 13 SPWR 4% | 11 MTSN 4% | 10
Audacity618 Audacity618 AAPL, D, Short ,
AAPL: 5 Years Ago - Similarties
49 0 4
AAPL, D Short
5 Years Ago - Similarties

~$40 bullish move from Nov to April. $QQQ $SPY

Audacity618 Audacity618 TAN, W, Long ,
TAN: 50% Return: Solar Covering (got balls?)
29 1 5
TAN, W Long
50% Return: Solar Covering (got balls?)

Short cover volume is providing temporary floor with weekly divergence in drops. -68% down from 2014 highs (Fibonacci).

Audacity618 Audacity618 SQ, D, Long ,
SQ: Square up to $20 (short term)
24 0 3
SQ, D Long
Square up to $20 (short term)

strong accumulation -- buyout rumors. Follow the trend.

Audacity618 Audacity618 SNAP, D, Long ,
SNAP: SNAP ready to test highs?
45 1 5
SNAP, D Long
SNAP ready to test highs?

IPO's I find tricky with little trading history and lack of strong sentiment. I have found PSar to be decent sometimes in the first month of trading. Low beta movement as you would expect with an IPO.

Audacity618 Audacity618 BABA, D, Long ,
BABA: Ascending Triangle - Squeeze
50 0 6
BABA, D Long
Ascending Triangle - Squeeze

BABA is in a bullish push here with little beta movement. Possible move to $120 (ATH) and $125 (1.618 extension). Volatility squeeze coming out of a month-long ascending triangle.

Audacity618 Audacity618 TLT, D, Long ,
TLT: Retracement in Bonds
65 0 4
TLT, D Long
Retracement in Bonds

Treasuries could make some gains as tax relief or doubts in timing of fiscal stimulus could send capital to "safety". Fed seems to be cautious on raising rates too fast.

Audacity618 Audacity618 ES1!, D,
ES1!: Hidden Hagopian Line
117 1 3
ES1!, D
Hidden Hagopian Line

$SPY $SPX

Audacity618 Audacity618 TLT, D, Short ,
TLT: Treasuries Look Weak -
29 1 5
TLT, D Short
Treasuries Look Weak -

- After semi-hawkish Fed comments last week. Current probability for June rate hike stands at 72% to 28% (No-hike vs hike) derived from fed funds futures. Sell the breakdown.

Audacity618 Audacity618 AMZN, D, Short ,
AMZN: Expensive P/R
39 0 2
AMZN, D Short
Expensive P/R

Pitchfork works well here with similar ~$245 bull move from before. MACD is also bearish here. Any weakness in the market is pulling this momo back fast IMO.

Audacity618 Audacity618 XRT, D, Long ,
XRT: Biting on Retail
8 0 2
XRT, D Long
Biting on Retail

Retail sell off after a series of sub-par earning reports provides short term relief trade based on prior support and depressed RSI.

Audacity618 Audacity618 USOIL, D,
USOIL: Watchlist: Short at $51+
49 1 3
USOIL, D
Watchlist: Short at $51+

Looking for an exhaustive move to short above $51 back lower to $46 target.

Audacity618 Audacity618 DXY, D,
DXY: Fib Fan Analysis
33 1 1
DXY, D
Fib Fan Analysis

See text.

Audacity618 Audacity618 XAUUSD, 120,
XAUUSD: Mini .618 Retracement
57 0 2
XAUUSD, 120
Mini .618 Retracement

$GLD

Audacity618 Audacity618 TLT, D, Short ,
TLT: Bearish Gartley
39 0 1
TLT, D Short
Bearish Gartley

Treasuries have been driven up again on deflation/global risk. Gartley formed.

Audacity618 Audacity618 ABX, D, Short ,
ABX: Hidden Log Trend Lines
48 0 2
ABX, D Short
Hidden Log Trend Lines

Always check for log trends on multi-year time frames along with linear.

Audacity618 Audacity618 ARTX, D, Short ,
ARTX: Small Cap Short
28 0 1
ARTX, D Short
Small Cap Short

PSAR is bearish after topping multi-year channel.There is little correlation with the market in price action.

Audacity618 Audacity618 SPX, M,
SPX: Inverted Yield Curve Predictor
47 0 3
SPX, M
Inverted Yield Curve Predictor

Spread between 10 and 2 year treasury rates to detect when spreads go negative (inverted yield curve), Currently at the lowest level in the spread since last recession. Historically, inversions of the yield curve have preceded many of the U.S. recessions. Due to this historical correlation, the yield curve is often seen as an accurate forecast of the turning ...

Audacity618 Audacity618 CL1!, D, Long ,
CL1!: ABCD Relief
191 0 3
CL1!, D Long
ABCD Relief

With two consecutive ~(40)% drops...there might be some relief as we just hit $30 wti. Looking for some quick short cover moves.

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