I posted this post in mid-2017. I am reposting as the debate has risen recently whether a recession is near or not. it might be handy in 2019.
Jobless claims figures have been a reliable indicator of recessions. By examining a historical chart that goes back to 1960s we see a similar pattern in the behavior of claims and recessions.
Chart is self-explanatory:
Multiple Technical factors suggest the "MOST LIKELY" scenario is a down move for oil 0.73% in the coming weeks to months:
- A retest of major long term trend line ( from 2008 all time high)
- A retest of major long term price barrier at $75/barre
- Divergence between Copper 1.34% and Oil 0.73% for more than 10 months.
The 52 week(yearly) simple moving average has been underpinning the index for the whole bullish wave since early 2016. I will be watching the weekly closing as if we break it it could confirm a change in the slope of the supply demand equation. An immediate target would be 2550 next major support area.
Just a heads up on crude, as it could be a BIG Sell this $75 resistance. Stochastic is clearly divergent as well. I am watching for a final confirmation to short this.
Be cautious as if we break 75 it might signal bullish continuation.
The price is hitting a key area at a confluence of technical levels. Suggesting there is a good chance of at least a downside reaction.
The ceiling of the falling channel that started from January's top.
In addition to the horizontal key resistance at 149.30 area.
Add to that the 52-week(yearly) simple moving average.
Also, this could be a retest to the...
The technical position for USDJPY is constructive. First of all the price has been in a 6 month uptrend (March Low).
The recent correction that bottomed at the 200-days simple moving average has probably completed as it took the shape of a head and shoulders continuation pattern in this case.
We broke earlier above the neckline of the pattern and extended the...
The price has retraced back towards the long term rising channel support, which was broken earlier, and turned to a resistance now.
The recent shorter term pullback is taking the shape of an inverted head and shoulders bottom formation. Interestingly, the neckline of the formation coincided with the main broken channel in addition to the 50-days simple moving...
We probably topped near the descending resistance of the falling channel on the weekly, while Stochastic coming off overbought area. The price is also about to complete a small double top formation at that resistance(The pattern will be confirmed only if we close this week below the neckline at 8.2889).
As we are approaching the shorter term rising trend line,...
EURUSD is in a very interesting long term position. We are in a pullback to the broken neckline for the triple bottom formation completed Jul 2017. Interestingly, a hammer candle formed last month. Seems like a good possibility we are heading back to the cluster of falling trend lines as a first target.
This Bullish resumption scenario is valid so long as 1.1350...
The Three Drives patterns is one of the most powerful setups:
Bullish Three Drives pattern:
1)First wave is a normal bearish wave.
2)Followed by first pullback wave (shouldn't exceed 0.9 of 1st bearish wave).
3)Then Second bearish wave that extends beyond the first bearish wave low and reach between 1.27 and 1.618 Fibonacci extension for the first pullback...
Gold is likely to bounce as the price has shown multiple rejections on key support 1305. I expect a retest of 1357 resistance as the price maintain the bullish trend structure as long as 1305-1300 zone is holding.