We might have finished this ending diagonal at 1.4417 and have seen the first 5 wave move of a new bullish trend that should continue higher from around the 50-61.8% retracement levels if the count is correct.
But the chance remains we are still in wave 4 of this diagonal here and so we need to expect one more new low to around 1.4350 before we rally higher.
For now price seems to be making a 3 wave correction and is at resistance around the 61.8% retracement level of previous bearish impulse wave and the upper channel line.
A clear break above this resistance zone, favors the bulls and we then need to look at current resistance becoming futur support from where price can rally after it pulls back.
If on the other...
We have been in a bull trend since June '19 and it's now making an Ending Diagonal, that as the name suggests, appears at the end of a trend.
A potential termination point is the Fib cluster zone marked by the yellow box but it can also come to an end even at current level!
A good sign of a sustained reversal will be if price breaks below the wave (2) and (4)...
We could be in a 3 waves zigzag here, currently in wave (B) which is near it's ending point.
So, if NFP comes higher than what is expected, we could see a new rally in the dollar taking this higher.
If on the other hand we see it come out below expectations and Powell takes a dovish tone later today,
the dollar will then get destroyed!
We might be in a bearish impulsive wave currently in wave 4.
For this to stay valid, price needs to remain below 2593.
Any move above that would increase the odds for bulls to take over.
Here is previous post with a bullish bias
We are in a consolidation, currently in possible wave B of (4) and should soon see a push lower for wave C to around 133 before going back up again one more time for wave (5) before we see any deep retracement.
Notice that waves 4 are tricky as they can take any form of corrective pattern, zigzag, triangle or flat.
One more option is that wave 4 is in at 136 and...
When price breaks outside the base channel, it suggests an impulsive move is in play.
The two zones marked in orange often act as resistance and support for subwave (i) and (ii) of larger degree red ((iii) which is perfectly the case here.
Therefore, I'm expecting a continuation higher here to 6340 first followed by 6390.
Invalidation level is 6200.
If this count count is correct, we should see a reversal in the next few sessions and definitely not go below 2800.
A sharp move up above 2990 would be a good indication that we'll go higher one more time !
If price continues to go lower though, especially below 2800, then we need to consider that we might just have started a bearish trend.
For those not...
Expecting a bearish reversal very soon here.
The higher time frame count suggests that we should see a sharp reversal lower as potential wave 3 or wave C.
But because we have a nice round base here, this could become a Cup and Handle pattern which is bullish!
In that case, we should see price retrace around half of this move up before reversing higher.
We got a perfect A=C correction here wich stopped at 1460 and we are now seeing a big bullish candle due to a very bad ISM Manufacturing PMI.
This could be the start of a new bullish trend but it's best to have a 5 waves move up first before making such statement.
If we see price reverse and go lower, then we can consider the correction is ongoing.
We've been tracking this pair for 2 weeks now and looks like it's finally Breaking out of this choppy correction!
If price goes above 1.3310, the odds of a continuation higher would increase.
If we see a reversal and price goes below invalidation level, then the count is negated.
A move below 1.3210 would be a first indication that we could see new lows!
We are at a first resistance zone from where we could see price go lower one more time to around 7500 as first support.
Next level of resistance is around 8700.
Check previous Bitcoin posts for longer term view.
Our first attempt to short this one was a Failure as we were only in wave 4.
Now we are at a important resistance zone and could see a reversal in the coming hours.
A move below 9898 would increase the odds of a continued bearish move.
The beginning of this diagonal is a good first target zone.
Since december 2018 Roku has been in a clear impulsive wave that topped at 175 and made a sharp reversal.
This correction has more the caracteristics of an impulsive wave than a correction, so, I suspect this to be only the first leg, wave A, of the overall correction.
For now we can count 3 waves which means we should see a small pullback for wave (iv)...
Don't freak out, let other do that !!!
Set money aside and get ready to buy because we'll see a huge rise once this correction ends !!!
We're in the last moments of this correction I've been talking about for quiet some time now (see previous posts)
Key levels here will be : 8120 which is the 100% projection of C vs A.
We got a clear impulsive wave that ended at 1.0850.
Now should have started a down move that depending if previous impulse is wave A of Y or just a wave C will see different targets.
If it's a wave C then we should see an immpulsive wave making a new low.
If it's wave A then we'll see at least a 3 waves correction that should stop ideally at the 61.8%...
Made a spike down but retraced it just as fast and is now going up, for the last time hopefully.
Ideal retracement zone is the 61.8% level but we could see it turn a bit sooner, around 9.039.
As you can see, the 38.2% retracement level has been hit, which is the minimum required.
So, if we see price go down right away, the count still remains a valid one.