simonsays452

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About me Medium-term macro wannabe
Joined USA simonsays452
Strong dollar blob
Markets Allocation
30 % forex 17 % stocks 5 % commodities 49 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
USOIL 26% | 48 EURUSD 14% | 26 USDCAD 7% | 14 XAUUSD 5% | 9
simonsays452 simonsays452 PRO F, 240, Short ,
F: Continue shorting F
21 0 4
F, 240 Short
Continue shorting F

Amidst the backdrop of yesterday's broader market move to new all-time highs, $F showed continued weakness. This accelerated on news of potential emissions cheating at $GM. Recent selling pattern screams of institutional selling. Watch out below.

F: F weakness due for pause?
32 0 7
F, 240
F weakness due for pause?

F saw sustained weakness this week against flat/bullish dip-buying in SPX. Sentiment divergence is NOT bullish. F closed at prior structure lows and at the end of the prior moves range. I rolled down to 10.5 PUTS on fears of a pause here and will look to add more on a bounce off of current structure lows. If 10.90 breaks though, watch out for a swift move lower ...

simonsays452 simonsays452 PRO USDCAD, 60, Long ,
USDCAD: Canadian banks are just the beginning...CAD headed lower
61 1 7
USDCAD, 60 Long
Canadian banks are just the beginning...CAD headed lower

Moody's downgraded Canadian banks last night...and this is just the beginning... Overheated housing market Lower oil Will better articulate the short CAD trade this evening.

simonsays452 simonsays452 PRO FIT, 240, Long ,
FIT: LONG Technicals supportive of 6.40 test up through gap-fill at 7
31 1 5
FIT, 240 Long
LONG Technicals supportive of 6.40 test up through gap-fill at 7

LONG Technicals bullish supportive of a 6.40 test up through gap-fill at 7.00

simonsays452 simonsays452 PRO F, 240, Short ,
F: Short F
31 0 4
F, 240 Short
Short F

Peak auto and technicals, to boot!

simonsays452 simonsays452 PRO ZN1!, 240, Short ,
ZN1!: Short 10yr treasuries on collapse through support
18 0 6
ZN1!, 240 Short
Short 10yr treasuries on collapse through support

US rates didn't budge following the Fed's "surprise" balance sheet discussion. Instead, 10yr treasuries got monkey-hammed on Friday - entirely shrugging off Syrian escalation fears, closing on the lows and and decidedly breaching month-long trendline support. Look for a bounce at 124'08 and a re-test at 123'28, which corresponds to the first breach of 10yr yield ...

simonsays452 simonsays452 PRO ZN1!, 240, Short ,
ZN1!: Short 10yr H&S
4 0 3
ZN1!, 240 Short
Short 10yr H&S

what a beauty on the 420min

simonsays452 simonsays452 PRO TSLA, D, Long ,
TSLA: TSLA to 280
37 0 4
TSLA, D Long
TSLA to 280

This was a no-brainer. Kicking myself for not finishing the analysis until last night. Will see how the 10cent news plays out. Still bullish. Maybe 300 need to re-evaluate.

simonsays452 simonsays452 PRO TSLA, D, Long ,
TSLA: TSLA to 280
43 0 4
TSLA, D Long
TSLA to 280

Pissed I didn't finish this analysis until last night and didn't get to put this trade on :(

simonsays452 simonsays452 PRO USOIL, 240, Long ,
USOIL: Oil keeps looking bullish, begging for a breakout > 55
53 0 2
USOIL, 240 Long
Oil keeps looking bullish, begging for a breakout > 55

Breakouts in oil have been very rare over the past year. To that end, I scaled back my bullishness (delta) going into Thursday's NYMEX open by rolling up to 57 calls. Since then, we've seen momentum consolidate, RSI oversold get worked off, and major support levels hold. Boy, does that daily chart look bullish! https://www.tradingview.com/x/qz2JXaHI/ At the ...

simonsays452 simonsays452 PRO ES1!, 240, Long ,
ES1!: $ES_F still running with the bulls...2375
51 0 2
ES1!, 240 Long
$ES_F still running with the bulls...2375

I saw my favorite scare mongering headline on Friday: "Institutions and HF are using the rally to sell to retail investors..." Has anyone looked at HF performance over any timeframe, since 2009? Enough said. I'm happy to keep buying SPX futures and options from them! Moving on... Friday's 3:30 ramp (3:27, to be exact) saw a new all-time closing high for the ...

simonsays452 simonsays452 PRO ZN1!, 240, Short ,
ZN1!: Still targeting new $ZN lows
12 0 3
ZN1!, 240 Short
Still targeting new $ZN lows

Bonds need to catch down to real rates as inflation ought to continue to build. The irrational move higher off of the hotter than expected CPI release has run its course and should swiftly move back < 124'17 (pre-hawkish Yellen surprise) and 124'06 (hot CPI). I'm staying short through new lows and watching for a new high in yields TNX > 2.55%.

simonsays452 simonsays452 PRO USOIL, 240,
USOIL: Oil risks balanced, waiting for directionality at 53.50ish
63 0 3
USOIL, 240
Oil risks balanced, waiting for directionality at 53.50ish

For 2017, oil has traded in a very defined $2 range b/w 52 and 54. At the moment, risks are pretty balanced, with a slight short-term downside bias. To that end, I'm long a few 56 APR calls. I'm waiting for directionality @ 53.50ish on a test of wedge resistance. I suspect this directionality will ultimately be a false signal and I plan to trade it accordingly, ...

simonsays452 simonsays452 PRO EURUSD, 240, Short ,
EURUSD: Euro weakness to continue
59 0 6
EURUSD, 240 Short
Euro weakness to continue

Since Tuesday's US inflation report induced dollar reversal, the Euro has defied interest rate differentials and traded in lock-step with traditional risk assets. After running into ichimoku resistance, momentum stalled, failing to break out higher, and Euro closed the week < 1.062 @ 50% retracement. Price action had moved very very far from monthly VWAP. This has ...

simonsays452 simonsays452 PRO ES1!, 240,
ES1!: ES still clinging to positive momentum, watch 2350
41 0 4
ES1!, 240
ES still clinging to positive momentum, watch 2350

Watch 2350 as an arbiter of further momo strength following Friday's 3:30 ramp'd close above 2346. Prior rebounds off of intraday pullbacks point to 2360, while fib extensions add another 2pts, targeting 2362. On the daily view, ES looks toppy and another test of 2338 looks warranted. I'm long Wed 2350 calls. I'll close these on a weak move to/above 2350. ...

simonsays452 simonsays452 PRO ZN1!, 24, Short ,
ZN1!: 10yr overnight rebound failed
4 0 4
ZN1!, 24 Short
10yr overnight rebound failed

European traders have been dumping bonds all morning, putting an end to yesterday's late day ZN1! bid-fest. The 24m chart has a beautiful short set-up on a beach below rising support at 123'275, which corresponds nicely with a round 2.50% yield. This is a short-term short in a larger bear trend. In the immediate term, I'm targeting 123'140 - 123'090. With ...

simonsays452 simonsays452 PRO ZN1!, 240, Short ,
ZN1!: Resume 10yr short
11 0 4
ZN1!, 240 Short
Resume 10yr short

More complete analysis forthcoming re: Draghi... In short, the "sell the inauguration" trade looks long in the tooth with selling poised to return to treasuries aided by a dovish surprise from Draghi this morning. Front month treasury futures look to have made a head fake breakout on Tuesday AM and have since collapsed through support at 124'070 with a failed ...

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