simonsays452

PRO
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About me Medium-term macro wannabe
Last visit Joined a year ago USA simonsays452 basementmacro.com
Strong dollar blob
Markets Allocation
32 % forex 14 % stocks 5 % cryptocurrency 49 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
USOIL 30% | 48 EURUSD 15% | 25 USDCAD 8% | 13 XAUUSD 5% | 9
simonsays452 simonsays452 PRO USOIL, D, Short , 3 months ago
USOIL: Shorting oil to 42
100 0 4
USOIL, D Short
Shorting oil to 42
Bullish bets haven't abated over the last two weeks, despite a 6% decline in the front month contract and a new YTD low in oil volatility. Looking to collect some vol carry and continued downside price drift via Sept puts 45 puts. I see room for a decline down to the 76.4 fib retracement at 41.49. Will look to roll ...
simonsays452 simonsays452 PRO USDJPY, 24, Long , 4 months ago
USDJPY: Too perfect: stay short $USDJPY to 98.787
27 0 1
USDJPY, 24 Long
Too perfect: stay short $USDJPY to 98.787
Continue staying short $JPYUSD (Yen strength). The 24min chart has a stupidly perfect setup for a strengthening impulse to 98.787 which coincides with: 100% fib retracement, prior low and a bear pennant breakdown.
simonsays452 simonsays452 PRO USOIL, D, Short , 4 months ago
USOIL: Crude continues to lack support through $39
101 0 4
USOIL, D Short
Crude continues to lack support through $39
With no real support until the 50% fib retracement at 38.76 and consolidation zone support at 37.55, crude looks destined to continue lower. Options markets are pricing August expiry at 36.69 on the downside and crude volatility is breaking out of a quarterly downtrend. Watch price action around psychological ...
simonsays452 simonsays452 PRO XAUUSD, D, Short , 6 months ago
XAUUSD: Unusual for new $GC_F LODs to form post Euro Close
56 0 1
XAUUSD, D Short
Unusual for new $GC_F LODs to form post Euro Close
Fed Funds futures are predicting a 22.5% probability of a June rate hike. That's 4 points higher than pre ISM data. Dollar continues to strengthen. Unusual for Gold to set new LODs after European close. Speaks to degree and breadth of selling. Futures are beginning for a re-test of 1200.
simonsays452 simonsays452 PRO BUND, D, Short , 6 months ago
BUND: Bunds still contained below 164.39
14 0 2
BUND, D Short
Bunds still contained below 164.39
6/1: Bunds still contained below 164.39. Watching for a break in either direction. Short bias.
simonsays452 simonsays452 PRO BUND, D, Short , 6 months ago
BUND: BUNDS still range bound
5 0 1
BUND, D Short
BUNDS still range bound
5/31: Still range bound. Would be nice to see a move back below 163.71. Unconcerned until above 164.39.
simonsays452 simonsays452 PRO USDCAD, D, Long , 6 months ago
USDCAD: Nice Risk/Reward Long CAD, If Skeptical of Commodity Rally
135 0 3
USDCAD, D Long
Nice Risk/Reward Long CAD, If Skeptical of Commodity Rally
I'm skeptical of commodities holding up at these levels with renewed dollar strength, especially oil. CAD has strengthened considerably and looks due for a pull back (higher). I'm targeting the 61.8% retracement of the recent rally (lower) at 1.3790 by JUL expiry. Options markets are only pricing in an expected ...
simonsays452 simonsays452 PRO BTCUSD, D, 6 months ago
BTCUSD: CNY USD Arbitrage highest since Feb 2014
112 0 5
BTCUSD, D
CNY USD Arbitrage highest since Feb 2014
We're seeing an explosion higher in BTC led by Chinese buyers to the tune of 30X BTCCNY:BTCUSD volume with a massive arb spread of $72 (15%), highest since Feb '14. The arb spread blowing out leads me to speculate that fears of the PBOC loosening up their grip on a "managed devaluation" are spreading. Thank ...
simonsays452 simonsays452 PRO TLT, D, Short , 6 months ago
TLT: Short TLT down to 124
19 0 3
TLT, D Short
Short TLT down to 124
Dollar strength, Fed hawkish, probability of FFR hike increasing, short TLT breakdown to 124
simonsays452 simonsays452 PRO USDOLLAR, D, Long , 6 months ago
USDOLLAR: Dollar about to explode higher
24 0 1
USDOLLAR, D Long
Dollar about to explode higher
Dollar is looking like it's ready to explode higher after Yellen commentary doesn't oppose recent hawkish Fedspeak.
simonsays452 simonsays452 PRO XAUUSD, D, Short , 6 months ago
XAUUSD: Gold technically and fundamentally weak
70 0 1
XAUUSD, D Short
Gold technically and fundamentally weak
5/25: Gold's fundamentals and technicals look weak. Fundamentals: Rate rise fears, renewed USD strength, $ES_F strength paints optimistic US econ picture and positioning data is awfully one-sided. Technicals: Broke down below two key support levels, Ichimoku cloud, ascending bullish trendline support and it ...
simonsays452 simonsays452 PRO BUND, D, 6 months ago
BUND: Bunds, as proxy for rate fears are range bound
13 0 2
BUND, D
Bunds, as proxy for rate fears are range bound
Bunds, as proxy for rate fears, are contained b/w 164 and 162. Waiting for trendline breaks. Otherwise, nothing to see here.
simonsays452 simonsays452 PRO USOIL, 60, Short , 6 months ago
USOIL: 47.31 close on oil today
74 0 0
USOIL, 60 Short
47.31 close on oil today
47.31 close on oil today
simonsays452 simonsays452 PRO XAUUSD, D, Short , 6 months ago
XAUUSD: 1240-1250 Important Decision Zone for Gold
46 0 2
XAUUSD, D Short
1240-1250 Important Decision Zone for Gold
Gold has finally shown some sustained weakness after markets realized the remarkably, fantastically obvious underpricing of June FFR hike risk - up 30% from 4%,only two days ago! Money Managers have never been longer the yellow metal - on both an absolute and net basis, so there's quite a bit of volume that should ...
simonsays452 simonsays452 PRO SPX500, D, Short , 6 months ago
SPX500: Short /ES through support at 2033 to 2013
58 0 0
SPX500, D Short
Short /ES through support at 2033 to 2013
I like the asymmetrical risk in shorting spooz here at support around 2033 on down to the next support level at 2013. Keep your eyes open for a possible bounce at 2019. WARNING: Keep your stop VERY tight! We've seen two strong bounces higher off of this support zone at 2033ish.
simonsays452 simonsays452 PRO KBH, 60, Short , 6 months ago
KBH: Continue shorting housing weakness
7 0 1
KBH, 60 Short
Continue shorting housing weakness
KBH is giving up all of today's "better" than expected housing data. The trends are still not looking good. I would continue to short KBH here below support at 12.70ish down to 12.00
simonsays452 simonsays452 PRO USDOLLAR, D, Long , 7 months ago
USDOLLAR: Was this morning dollar bear capitulation?
30 0 1
USDOLLAR, D Long
Was this morning dollar bear capitulation?
NFP came in weak, as expected. On the release, $GC1! spiked, $DX1! dove and $ES1! tanked. Again, all par for expectations. That said, no sooner than 6 minutes after the release, $DX1! was already trading higher than pre-NFP. Could that be a signal of capitulation on the bearish dollar trade? Yes, that's a gutsy ...
simonsays452 simonsays452 PRO XAUUSD, 15, Short , 7 months ago
XAUUSD: SPX & GC Divergence, FINALLY?
25 0 1
XAUUSD, 15 Short
SPX & GC Divergence, FINALLY?
Are we finally seeing the beginning of some divergence between gold and US equities? I expect this to be bearish for Gold.
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