Tesla (1H) โ Post-Distribution Breakdown vs NPC Equilibrium ZoneTesla is currently trading inside a NPC post-distribution compression range after breaking down from the upper volatility structure.
Instead of predicting direction, hereโs the statistical positioning based on the NeuroPolynomial Channel:
Current Positioning:
โข Price under NPC Core Cluster
โข Distance to lower stress band: ~1.4%
โข Distance to upper expansion band: ~3.2%
โข Compression vs prior impulse: ~0.61
NPC Volatility Map:
โข Upper Expansion Zone: +3% to +3.8%
โข Core Equilibrium: 400โ412 zone
โข Lower Rejection Band: โ1.4%
โข Breakdown Continuation Zone: โ2.8% to โ3.5%
Interpretation (scenario-based):
โ Sustained acceptance above core โ structural rebuild attempt
โ Rejection at core โ continuation inside stress band
โ Re-entry into strong-lower โ extension zone unlock
This is a volatility structure map, not a prediction model.
Market insights
TSLA ... From darling to toxic exThere is nothing to debate.
PWL at 382.78โ388.21 must hold, or buyers get steamrolled. Weโre trading below the 50-day on the daily, and any strength is likely to be sold into. I hate leaning this bearish, but if thereโs going to be a short-term bounce, it *starts* with the PWL holding. With heavy overhead supply near 400, this is not a name where you want to be the early hero.
If the PWL breaks, downside opens to the 200-day near 338 or the beige pocket between 328โ336.
Negative headwind:
Forget Musk's latest pay package, his last one could wipe out years of Tesla profits
By Chris Kirkham
www.reuters.com
TESLA: Long Signal Explained
TESLA
- Classic bullish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Buy TESLA
Entry - 391.16
Stop - 384.56
Take - 403.96
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
โค๏ธ Please, support our work with like & comment! โค๏ธ
TSLA:Truncated 5th at 474 A-Bottom 382 Confirmed-3Scenarios MapTSLA: Truncated 5th at 474 โ ๏ธ A-Bottom 382 Confirmed โ 3 Scenarios Mapped: B to 440/460 or Bust? C-Targets 287-367 + Fed Cut Catalyst Dec 9-10:
Tesla's 5-wave impulsive rally from $273 to $474.07 is officially terminated in a classic Truncated 5th Wave pattern โ one of the most reliable bearish setups in Elliott Wave theory.
Key Confirmation Signals:
Wave โค high: 474.07 = exact same price as sub-wave (i) of โข (textbook same-price failure)
Screaming RSI bearish divergence at the top
Volume collapse + SMA20/50 death cross (Sep) โ truncation locked in
Current structure: ABC zigzag correction (likely Wave IV of larger cycle or Wave A of bear impulse).
Wave A: 474.07 โ 382.78 (0.786 retracement of entire impulse, Nov 14 low)
Wave B: Now underway as platform consolidation post-hammer reversal (Nov 23 low 383.76, RSI oversold confirmed)
๏ผPrimary target: 430-440 (0.618 Fib of A) by early Dec
๏ผIf breakout 445: Extend to 460 (0.786 Fib, 35% odds โ accelerated rally fueled by Fed doves)
MACD/RSI Fuel for B-Wave:
MACD bullish divergence emerging (-3.85 turning up) โ Gold cross by Nov end
RSI oversold hammer โ Short-term bounce to 410+ expected
3 Scenarios for Wave C (Post-B Top):
| Scenario | Probability | B-Wave High | C-Wave Target | Key Condition |
|-------------------|-------------|-----------------|-----------------|----------------------------------------|
| **Weak B: Deep C** | 50% | 430-440 (Platform Type) | 287-293 (C=1.618รA) | B stalls at 440; Dec FOMC mild cut โ Extension from 319 (1.272รA) low |
| **Strong B: Shallow C** | 35% | 445-460 (Accelerated Rally) | 361-367 (C=1.0รA) | Break 445 on Fed fuel; Shallow due to strong rebound |
| **Bullish Invalid: Extended โค** | 15% | >485 (Break Secondary Resistance) | 550-600+ (0.618 of Impulse) | Weekly close >485 negates ABC โ Wave โค resumes |
Catalysts to Watch:
Dec 9-10 FOMC: Expected 25bp cut (89% odds post-Williams) โ Long shadow potential for B acceleration (see chart)
Bear confirm: <380 break โ C accelerates to 250 (2.0รA, high-volume 2024 low)
Timeframe: B ends early Dec; C launches mid-Dec, bottoms Jan 2026 (4-6 weeks)
Trade with stops: ใLong B to 440 (trail below 380); Flip short at B top divergence.
This is not financial advice โ DYOR.
TSLA โ Downside Extension Followed by Potential Rebound PhaseTesla has continued to slide after its recent peak, with price action forming a deeper corrective leg. The latest reaction suggests a rebound scenario may develop if momentum begins to shift, paving the way for a possible recovery sequence in the coming sessions.
Disclosure: We are part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in our analysis.
TESLA Will Explode! BUY!
My dear friends,
My technical analysis for TESLA is below:
The market is trading on 391.16 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 403.74
Recommended Stop Loss - 384.61
About Used Indicators:
A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
โโโโโโโโโโโ
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TSLA: Fundamentals Are Collapsing While Valuation Stays in OrbitTesla is trading near multi-month highsโฆ but the fundamentals tell a very different story.
EPS has dropped by 50%, revenue growth has almost stalled, and yet the stock still carries a Forward P/E of 164.
This combination โ slowing growth and extreme valuation โ looks like the definition of an institutional bubble setup.
๐งฎ Fundamental Context
Over the past few years, Teslaโs growth has slowed dramatically:
Revenue rose from 31B โ 53B โ 81B โ 96B โ 97B โ barely any increase.
EPS climbed from 0.2 โ 1.6 โ 3.6 โ 4.3 โ and then fell by half.
Quarter-over-quarter metrics remain negative, with no visible recovery trend.
Meanwhile, the Forward P/E of 164 implies double-digit expansion ahead โ which clearly isnโt happening.
The fundamentals simply do not justify this kind of valuation.
Right now, Teslaโs numbers resemble the early phase of a valuation compression cycle โ where prices eventually catch up with reality.
๐ Technical Structure
Technically, Tesla has been moving in a broad sideways range, forming what looks like a long-term Wave 4 structure.
Weโre currently inside the โBโ leg, which could already be complete or near completion.
Once that wave ends, the next expected move is a Wave C decline.
Key levels to watch:
๐ Upper resistance zone: $400 โ $550
๐ Primary cluster: around $250
๐ Support zone: $150 โ $200
The chart shows clear volume concentration around $250 โ once that level breaks, the next liquidity pocket sits between $150 and $200.
Thatโs where a potential bottoming cluster could form before the final upward leg.
โ ๏ธ Market Outlook
While other FANG names maintain solid balance sheets and stable earnings, Teslaโs fundamentals are deteriorating sharply.
Yes, the stock may still see short-term pumps driven by sentiment or Muskโs fan base โ but markets always return to fundamentals.
And those fundamentals are pointing downward.
๐ Summary
EPS and revenue both trending lower ๐
Forward P/E at 164 โ completely disconnected from growth metrics
Technical range suggests potential decline toward $200โ$150
Current price action likely part of a larger corrective structure
Long-term investors should exercise extreme caution โ ๏ธ
Tesla isnโt a short-term โgrowth storyโ anymore โ itโs a valuation risk story.
Until earnings stabilize and margins recover, this stock looks massively overpriced.
Tesla / Palantir Fractal - 50 Days of identical price action?On oct 7th I suggested that Tesla and Palantir had been in a 'fractal" pattern. Since identifying this pattern, it's been 50 days of identical price action (on the 15 minute timeframe). But this fractal goes back much further in time.
Fractals are a mathmatical anomaly, if you understand linear equations (and believe the market is "random"). All assets are doing the same patterns over and over, on all time frames. You just need to see it for what it is.
May the truth be with you.
TSLA SELL++++ $360-370 to be testedAs I posted last week, and, clearly too early TSLA needs to test the $370 range where it broke out from. I do pat myself on the back for the epic bounce off support at $324.80 that needed to hold to see $426's and TSLA always goes further then we think both ways. We're way overdone and todays reversal shows it. $370's imminent in coming weeks
Tesla Retests Key support Amid a New Lawsuit After Deadly CrashTesla (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:TSLA ) faces renewed scrutiny after a lawsuit was filed over a fatal January 2023 crash in Washington state. According to the complaint, the vehicle โrapidly acceleratedโ before striking a utility pole and bursting into flames, killing one passenger and severely injuring another. First responders reportedly struggled to access the victims due to the vehicleโs structure and fire behavior, raising questions about safety systems and emergency accessibility.
The lawsuit lands during a period of heightened attention on Teslaโs real-world AI features, including Autopilot and Full Self-Driving (FSD). While the filing does not explicitly blame autonomous systems, it adds pressure to Teslaโs regulatory and legal environment, which remains a critical investor risk factor heading into 2026.
Teslaโs Fundamentals Remain Strong
Despite the legal challenges, Tesla retains a massive market cap near $1.33 trillion and continues scaling its energy and robotics divisions. The company remains profitable, with a strong balance sheet and long-term margin expansion driven by software, AI, and autonomous capabilities. The Optimus humanoid robot program and 4680 battery ramp both strengthen Teslaโs position in the next industrial cycle.
Teslaโs broad lineupโfrom the Model 3 to the Semi and Cybertruckโsupports global delivery growth, while its charging infrastructure partnerships increase ecosystem reach. Fundamentally, Tesla remains one of the strongest players in the EV and AIโmobility sectors.
Technical Outlook: Trendline Retest in Play
From a price-action perspective, Tesla trades around $391, pulling back toward a critical ascending trendline visible on the weekly chart. This trendline has guided Teslaโs recovery since April and remains the key level to watch.
Support:
โข $390 trendline
โข Major demand at $350
โข Long-term support at $250
Resistance:
โข $425
โข $492 (2025 high)
A strong bounce at the trendline could send TSLA back toward $425 and eventually $492. However, a clean breakdown risks a deeper correction toward the $320 zone.
TSLA Momentum Play: QuantSignals V3 Sees Strong UpsideTSLA | QuantSignals Katy 1M Prediction (2025-11-21)
Current Price: $385.51
Predicted Close: $396.06 (+2.74%)
30-min Target: $393.15 (+1.98%)
Trend: Bullish
Confidence: 75%
Volatility: 27.4%
Trade Signal
Direction: CALL
Entry: $385.51
Target: $393.95
Stop Loss: $379.73
Expected Move: +2.74%
Summary: 1 trade signal generated from 1 successful analysis.
Tesla - Withstanding all weakness!๐นTesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) can still break out:
๐Analysis summary:
Since Tesla was listed on the Nasdaq back in 2013, we witnessed a lot of triangle breakouts. And starting all the way back in 2020, Tesla once again created a bullish triangle. Last month we saw the breakout and this month we have to see the confirmation
๐Levels to watch:
$400
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
Nasdaq 100, Tesla and Apple OutlookWall Street is on the verge of closing lower for a third week for the first time in eight months. I explain why I think there could be further losses ahead, why Tesla (TSLA) is a preferred short setup and why to keep an eye on Apple (AAPL).
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index
Tesla's curious caseTesla has always been a volatile stock but since 2021, it has forever been under corrective wave strcuture. Its not the typical corrective structure where the prices only go down, but it's a combination of large scale Zigzag and inverse Zigzag.
The current corrective wave will end between 320-328 and then again an upmove journey will begin heading towards 733 mark ( exact number to be confirmed once uptrend starts.
Be on the watch out for entering at 325.
QuantSignals V3 TSLA Alert: Strong Bearish MomentumTSLA 1M | QuantSignals Katy | 2025-11-20
Direction: PUT (Bearish)
Confidence: 75%
Current Price: $427.76
Final Target: $411.82 (-3.73%)
30min Target: $419.17 (-2.01%)
Entry: $427.76
Take Profit: $415.01
Stop Loss: $434.18
Volatility: 24.9%
Analysis:
Katy AI predicts steady bearish movement over the month.
Momentum favors downside, with 1M horizon showing consistent decline.
Strong confidence (75%) and moderate volatility suggest high-probability put setup.
Trade Setup & Edge:
Entry aligns with current price at resistance level.
Tight stop limits risk while capturing projected downside.
Short-term 30-min target gives early exit option if quick profit is desired.
โ ๏ธ Risk Warning: Moderate volatility; adjust position size accordingly.
Tesla (TSLA) โ Key Levels Tightening Up Ahead on Nov. 20TSLA is coiling inside a clean rising wedge on the 1H and 15M charts. Price is grinding toward the apex with buyers slowly stepping in, but sellers are still defending the 410โ415 zone. This tension usually leads to a breakout move, up or down, depending on how the opening momentum comes in.
Tomorrow, traders will be watching TSLA because itโs sitting right at the intersection of trendline pressure + GEX walls โ perfect setup for volatility.
1. 1H Timeframe โ Bigger Picture
* TSLA is trapped between 395 support and 410โ415 resistance.
* The rising wedge support is doing its job. Every dip into 395โ398 gets bought.
* If TSLA clears 415, it can quickly push toward 422โ425, then 430.
* If it rejects again, the wedge breaks down toward 400, then 390.
What matters:โจThis structure is tight. A move outside the wedge tomorrow will set direction for the next 2โ3 sessions.
2. 15M Timeframe โ Intraday Setup
* Strong BOS + CHoCH stack that reversed the downtrend earlier today.
* Price is now retesting the mid-range around 410.
* Bears are active at 410.30โ411.50 (multiple rejections).
* Bulls defending the 401โ402 block and 398โ400 FVG zone.
If buyers hold 401โ402:โจTSLA can attempt 415 โ 422.
If sellers break 398:โจExpect a fast unwind toward 390โ392.
The 15M gives the intraday trigger for the bigger 1H structure.
3. GEX / Options Sentiment โ Confirms the Levels
This is the clean part:
* Highest positive GEX resistance at 422โ425.โจOptions dealers hedge aggressively there โ hard ceiling unless volume comes in.
* 410 is the HVL zone โ right where price is stuck.โจThis level often acts like a magnet and chop zone.
* Below price, 400 / 395 / 390 are stacked with negative GEX โโจthis acts like put support. Traders love to take premium here.
What this means:โจGEX supports the same ranges the chart shows:
* Above 415 โ clear air pockets toward 422โ425.
* Below 400 โ air pocket toward 390.
Trading Outlook for Nov 20
Bullish Scenario
* Needs to reclaim 415 with strength.
* First target: 422
* Next target: 425โ430
* Momentum confirmation: volume spike + 15M BOS continuation.
Bearish Scenario
* Lose 398โ400, preferably on a breakdown during first 15โ30 minutes.
* Target: 390โ392
* Next: 382 (deep range sweep)
Neutral / Range
* If price sits between 402โ410, expect chop.
* This is where most retail gets trapped.
Probability Summary (Not Signals)
* Breakout above 415: moderate probability if NASDAQ is strong.
* Reject & fade into 400: high probability if SPY pulls back.
* Chop 402โ410: base case until macro gives direction.
Final Note
Everything lines up cleanly across 1H, 15M, and GEX โ the exact setup traders search for before a trend day. TSLA will be heavily watched tomorrow because whichever side wins this 410 battle will control the next big move.
Tesla Is Moving Toward a Key Support ZoneHello everyone, Tesla is entering a sensitive phase as the strong rally from 310 USD to 406 USD over the past two months begins to lose momentum. The recent decline is not just a normal pullback; the repeated appearance of red FVGs shows that buying pressure is fading while sellers are gradually taking control again. At the moment, the 401 USD level is acting as the nearest support. If this area fails to hold, Tesla could slide further toward 395 USD โ a zone with green FVGs and heavy volume where strong buying previously pushed the price upward.
On the fundamental side, the news flow isnโt helping. Teslaโs Q3/2025 report showed adjusted profits dropping nearly 29% even though revenue still grew around 12%, indicating that operational efficiency is weaker than expected. Rising costs, lower income from regulatory credits, and massive investments in AI and robotics continue to squeeze margins. At the same time, competition from Chinese and European EV manufacturers is intensifying, putting additional pressure on Teslaโs future market share. With the broader tech market shifting toward a risk-off mood, growth stocks are taking heavier hits โ and Tesla is clearly feeling that weight.
Given both technical structure and market sentiment, the most reasonable scenario right now is a continued move down into the 395 USD support zone to test liquidity and gauge the marketโs reaction. This level remains a strong technical area and could trigger a meaningful bounce if buyers step in. However, if 395 USD breaks under negative news or persistent outflows from growth assets, the decline could extend toward 385โ380 USD. On the flip side, if a major positive catalyst appears โ such as notable progress in robotaxi development, better margins, or a breakthrough in battery technology โ the 405โ410 USD region would be the first recovery target.
For now, Tesla is standing at a โpivot zoneโ โ a place where the market will soon reveal whether this is just a pause before another upward leg, or the beginning of a deeper corrective cycle.
QuantSignals V3 | TSLA High-Probability Weekly PUT TradeTSLA QuantSignals V3 โ Weekly PUT Trade (2025-11-19)
Trade Signal:
Direction: BUY PUTS (Short)
Strike Price: $402.50
Entry Range: $8.35โ$8.45 (mid $8.40)
Target 1: $12.60 (50% gain)
Target 2: $16.80 (100% gain)
Stop Loss: $5.88 (30% risk)
Expiry: 2025-11-21 (2 days)
Position Size: 3% of portfolio
Confidence: 65% (Medium)
Market Analysis:
Trend: NEUTRAL overall, short-term bearish bias (-0.67% predicted decline)
Price Action: Current $401.88, trading below VWAP $406.38
Technicals: EMA bearish, weekly momentum neutral (-0.61%), key support $380.97, resistance $432.75
Options Flow: Put/Call Ratio 1.39, institutional put-heavy positioning
Volatility: Rising VIX (19.83 vs 18.44 avg) indicates increasing market nervousness
News Sentiment: Mixed; positive news not lifting price, sector skepticism present
Competitive Edge:
Katy AI downside prediction combined with strong bearish options flow and technical weakness
$402.50 strike balances risk/reward near-the-money
Mid-week entry captures potential late-week volatility
Tight stop loss mitigates gamma risk
Risk Notes:
2-day expiry creates high gamma and time decay risk
Rising VIX may increase premiums but also volatility
Moderate conviction requires careful position sizing
Monitor actively through expiration
What are these "algorithms" I'm always talking about?I talk a lot about โ algorithms โ - but for newer followers, it can feel abstract or confusing.
This video breaks down the core logic behind how I analyze any chart and tell a story to set up for the best possible trade.
Here I discuss:
- What is liquidity
- How the market builds liquidity
- Why certain movements/patterns repeat with accuracy
- How tapering, liquidity, and the basics of supply and demand form algorithmic behavior
If you want to understand the power behind the charts I show every day, this is for you.
(It's difficult to do this in a 10 minute video - which is why I have students who I work with one-on-one to dive deeper into learning this process. I don't sell myself or a course - I simply want you all to learn something that is truly helpful and beautiful. I post everything I know on here as often as I can!)
Happy Trading :)
TSLA: Serious Divergence at $380As a long term investor I am not concerned with corrections, and when we look back at price movement retrospectively, they always seem to be the correct movements.
I trust the process, but it's always fun to try and snipe a buy. To me it feels like upper 300s are on trend for a reversal. Tesla is known to move slow and sideways before moving higher. So I don't presume to know when we begin to hit the $500s. However, I do believe it is inevitable - whether we get there before the end of the year or next year.
No trade advise. Just investing in quality companies for the long term.
TSLA Testing a Key Support โ Will Buyers Step Up? (Nov 19)TSLA has been drifting lower ever since rejecting the 423โ440 supply zone, and now price is sitting right on top of an important support shelf around 397โ401. This level has been tested multiple times and has acted as the midpoint of the entire OctoberโNovember structure.
Tomorrow (Nov 19) will tell us if this support holds โ or if TSLA breaks into the deeper liquidity zone toward 380 and below.
๐ TSLA โ Daily Structure (1D)
The daily chart shows TSLA losing its rising trendline from August and pulling back toward the first major demand zone.
Key levels:
* 423โ440 โ Major supply, previous rejection
* 401โ398 โ Immediate support
* 380โ381 โ Next liquidity sweep
* 213 โ Deep macro demand below
Right now TSLA is sitting right between two worlds โ still above the major breakdown level, but below all the recent bullish structure.
๐ TSLA โ Intraday Trend (1H)
The 1H chart shows a clean sequence of CHoCH โ BOS โ lower highs, confirming the short-term downtrend.
Short-term zones for tomorrow:
Resistance:
* 404โ408 โ First lid
* 415โ423 โ Major resistance + heavy supply zone
* 440 โ Macro rejection zone
Support:
* 397โ398 โ Current support
* 380โ381 โ Next high-volume liquidity zone
* Lose 380 โ quick move into 370s
The intraday structure stays bearish unless TSLA reclaims 408โ415.
๐ TSLA โ GEX Levels for Nov 19
This adds the real roadmap for tomorrow.
CALL Walls / Resistance
* 415 โ Heavy call wall
* 423โ430 โ Largest positive GEX clusterโจ(This is why TSLA struggled to push higher all week)
PUT Support
* 398โ400 โ Highest negative GEX / HVL support
* 390 โ Second put wall
* 380 โ Strong third wall
TSLA is sitting directly on the 398โ400 GEX shelf.โจLose this โ 390, then 380.
๐ Bullish Scenario (Bounce From Support)
TSLA must hold 397โ400 early in the session.
If buyers step in:
1. Reclaim 404โ408
2. Push into 415 (first big wall)
3. Clear 415 โ move toward 423
4. Break 423 โ opens path toward 430
TSLA is bullish only if it breaks 408 first.
๐ Bearish Scenario (Break of Support)
If TSLA opens weak or rejects 404โ408 early:
1. Drop back into 398โ400
2. Lose 398 โ straight to 390
3. Lose 390 โ strong magnet toward 380โ381
Your 1H chart structure supports this: BOS levels all pointing downward.
๐ My Outlook for Nov 19
TSLA is sitting on a key support shelf (398โ401), but momentum is still bearish. Unless TSLA reclaims the 404โ408 range early, sellers continue to have control.
Bias:
* Neutral โ Bearish below 404
* Bullish only above 408 โ 415
As long as TSLA is under 415, upside is limited because of the heavy GEX resistance stack.
๐ Summary
* Daily trendline broken
* Support: 398โ401, then 390 โ 380
* Resistance: 404โ408, then 415โ423
* GEX strongest support: 398โ400
* Bullish only above 408 โ 415
* Bearish continuation under 398
โ ๏ธ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always trade your plan and manage risk.






















