$YPF: Sell Argentine stocks, and sell shortGM gents, it seems that Argentine stock market peaked, the signs were there for a few months and it only got worse since the Buenos Aires province election that showed a devastating victory by the opposition to Milei's "libertarian" crusade.
Back in August 2022, it became clear NYSE:YPF would surge for 10 quarters in a row, and the time for this trend expired, odds of a reversal or long term consolidation are very high since December 2024.
Now the monthly has traced a big distribution pattern, which can culminate in a sharp break down during October (which lines up with mid term elections which will likely be won by the Peronist party). This makes Argentine stocks and bonds extremely risky, going forward, similarly to what what happened in 2018 when Macri's bull market turned sour.
FX_IDC:USDARS is trending up as well, breaking above the Central Bank's upper flotation band at $1400 Pesos per Dollar, which complicates matters further. The government has little room to maneuver after wasting tons of precious hard currency reserves in manipulating prices to keep an artificially inflated Peso and maintain disinflation at the behest of employment.
Crossing fingers (I live here), I'm really not too optimistic about the local market now.
Best of luck (to us all),
Ivan Labrie.
