Nvidia - The correction just started!💉Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) is now heading lower:
🔎Analysis summary:
Just recently, Nvidia once again retested the major rising channel resistance trendline. Together with November's bearish engulfing candle, Nvidia is slowly shifting bearish. And before Nvidia will retest the next major support area, we can see a drop of another -15%.
📝Levels to watch:
$150
SwingTraderPhil
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NVIDIA This is how it can reach $100 and the Supports involved.NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) had a strong red 1M candle last month, the first one after a rally of 7 straight green months. This is not the first time we present you this 12-year Channel Up, in fact we used this in late October to give a sell signal.
The reason is that Nvidia almost reached the top of that pattern, a technical Higher High, successive if you count the late 2024 one. Such Double Tops have been previously consistent with the start of strong corrections (Bearish Legs) which in both cases (2018 and 2022) bottomed on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
The key element that we added on the chart this time is the (green) Support Zone, which stemmed every time from the last consolidation (blue circle) before the Top.
It is no surprise that this time it also falls on the 1W MA200 and a potential contact with the price towards Q3 2026 and beyond. Even then, it will still be above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level as in December 2018 and quite close to the bottom of the Channel Up for the first time since October 2022.
Our long-term Target and thus next long-term Buy Signal, remains $100.
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Let's buy nvidiaMine is a purely technical analysis that is supported by multiple factors: we can first notice in the daily timeframe that Nvidia is squeezing through this descending triangle creating a slight downtrend, retracing by about 15% from the historical high and arriving in an area of particular importance that in recent months has acted as a very important support, as we can see from the arrow. The price also tried to break the resistance looking for a further decline but failing to do so, it ended up closing the day's candle with enormous lower weakness as can be seen in the yellow area, finally arriving at the point of interest where we can notice the structural change in h4 and the break, now for 5 days, of the descending triangle.
Sub $100 Incoming?Textbook UTAD • LPSY Formation • Bearish Divergence on 3D QQQ Trend
📌 Overview
NVDA is showing a complete Wyckoff Distribution across all major timeframes. The Monthlys last major push has been extremely weak volume, The Weekly chart printed a clean UTAD, the Daily/3D shows a fractal UTAD, and the 3-Day QQQ trend reveals a bearish divergence by closing above its last swing, while NVDA closed below — confirming supply dominance.
This combination strongly suggests NVDA is transitioning from Phase C → Phase D, with markdown likely into the AR and below.
🟦 1. WEEKLY — Completed UTAD, Now Phase D
The Weekly structure is extremely clean and follows classic Wyckoff logic:
Phase A
PSY
Buying Climax (BC)
Automatic Reaction (AR)
Secondary Test (ST)
Phase B
Wide, choppy rotation while the Composite Operator distributes.
Phase C — UTAD
NVDA broke above Phase B highs, failed immediately, and reversed with increasing sell pressure.
This is the exact spot where smart money typically finalizes distribution.
Phase D — Current
The last two rallies have formed LPSYs, each weaker than the last:
Lower highs
Shortened thrust
Volume fading on upswings
Downside volume expanding
Interpretation:
Weekly is firmly in Phase D, preparing to test the AR (≈ $120). Followed by SOW-B ≈ $93
Failure of this zone opens Phase E (markdown).
🟪 2. 3-DAY NVDA — Fractal UTAD of the Weekly Distribution
On the 3-Day chart, NVDA produced a smaller UT and UTAD inside the larger weekly UTAD.
This is a fractal distribution, confirming:
A smaller distribution nested inside a larger one
CO selling on both timeframes
Supply overwhelming diminishing demand
This also aligns perfectly with the behavior of Phase C → D.
This is one of the strongest bearish Wyckoff signals you can get.
🟦 3. 3-Day QQQ Trend — Clear Bearish Divergence
Above the NVDA 3D chart is the QQQ 3-Day
• When NVDA closes below its last swing, while the market held above, that shows weakness.
This is momentum divergence:
Demand decelerating
When the leaders start to lag, thats something to cause concern.
Its a classic condition during UTADs in distribution tops
When a UTAD forms with divergence, Wyckoff views it as Demand is drying up.
🟧 4. MONTHLY — Macro Distribution Entering Phase D
The Monthly chart confirms the big picture:
Massive vertical run → PSY + BC
First shift in behavior → AR
Controlled retest → ST
Drift sideways → Phase B
Final push → Monthly UTAD
Rejection with increased supply → Phase C complete
Now price is failing the retest and rolling over into Phase D.
The Monthly and Weekly now align, which greatly increases the probability of sustained markdown.
🟥 5. Wyckoff Markdown Projection Path
Based on the current structure:
1️⃣ Current Zone
Weak LPSY → low-volume rally failures. I expect some chop, followed by one last UT of the chop highs, with a rejection between $185-$195. IF we reclaim and hold $195 = Invalidation, otherwise:
2️⃣ SOW (Sign of Weakness)
A decisive breakdown below the most recent structure lows.
3️⃣ First Major Target: AR Zone
$120
Every completed distribution returns to test the AR.
4️⃣ Sow Break (Phase E Begins)
Targets:
$102 (Phase A low)
$90-102 (Redistribution zone)
$76 (Final stopping area; Monthly value reset)
5️⃣ Bear Market Behavior
If the SoW breaks, NVDA enters a true Phase E markdown —
smooth, directional, and supply-driven.
🟩 6. Invalidation
To negate this bearish Wyckoff view:
➡️ NVDA must reclaim and HOLD above the UTAD high.
Given the 3D divergence and repeated LPSYs, this has low structural probability.
🟦 7. Final Thoughts
NVDA is aligning across all major timeframes in one of the clearest Wyckoff distribution sequences of the year:
Monthly UTAD
Weekly UTAD → LPSYs → SOW
Daily/3D fractal UTAD
3-Day QQQ divergence
Volume shift confirming supply
Everything here points toward Phase D → Phase E, with markdown into the AR and below. I think its important to not repeatedly try and call tops so if this idea is invalidated I will remain neutral, until I see redistribution below phase b, but I also think that the weakness in volume, and the MTF alignment is too much to ignore
If this continues to play out that would make all of 2025 a distribution. If that is the case, the markdown phase could play out throughout all of 2026 and into 2027. I know people say this every year/month/day but this is the first time, I personally, have seen this kind of alignment and supporting evidence across timeframes. Time will tell.
Good luck in 2026 everybody
Trade Summary: Bearish Continuation with High ConfidenceYou are looking at the Daily chart for NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation). The broader trend is clearly bearish, and the MAF Neural Brain indicator has identified a high-probability continuation setup.
1. Perception (The Eyes): What the Indicator Sees
Efficiency Score: 0.14. This is very low, indicating "Noisy/Chop" price action. The daily candles are overlapping significantly, showing a struggle between buyers and sellers rather than a smooth trend.
Spread (Price): 22.45. Volatility is present but contained within the bearish structure.
Position: INSIDE CLOUD. Price is trading within the indicator's bands, confirming that this is a consolidation phase within the larger downtrend.
Trade Summary: Bearish Continuation with High Confidence
2. Cognition (The Mind): How the Indicator Interprets It
Bias: BEARISH. Despite the choppy daily action, the system maintains a negative bias.
Conviction: GAINING. This is the key insight. While the market looks messy to the naked eye, the algorithm's internal confidence in the downtrend is actually increasing. It sees the current chop as a pause before another drop, not a reversal.
Mode: FLAT (REPELLING). The market is stuck in a range that is resisting upward breakouts.
3. Narrative (The Story): The Strategic Output
Signal: SELL. A hard sell signal is active.
Confidence: 100%. The system is fully aligned. Every metric (Bias, Conviction, Structure) points to lower prices.
4. Summary (The Execution)
Macro Structure: STRONG BEARISH. The dominant force is selling.
Micro Action: NOISY / CHOP. The daily candles are messy.
AI Strategy: HOLDING (Ignoring Noise).
Trade Analysis: This setup represents a "Bear Flag" or Consolidation in a Downtrend.
The Opportunity: Traders often get shaken out during "Noisy" consolidations like this because they mistake the sideways movement for a bottom. The Neural Brain is explicitly telling you to ignore that noise.
The Action: If you are short, HOLD. If you are flat, this is a valid entry for a Short position, anticipating a breakdown from the current "Inside Cloud" consolidation.
The Verdict: The 100% confidence level combined with "Gaining Conviction" suggests the path of least resistance remains strictly downward.
In plain English: "NVDA is taking a breather after dropping, and the price action is messy. However, the internal data says sellers are still in total control and getting stronger. Don't buy the dip; expect the drop to continue."
NVDA – TA for Dec 8–12Compression Under Resistance, Demand Below (Full TA + GEX Insight)
NVDA is entering the week sitting right beneath an important resistance band while holding onto a broader ascending structure. The stock is consolidating after a strong run, and the market is now deciding whether this pause leads to continuation or a deeper pullback. This week’s movement will hinge on how NVDA behaves at the key levels that have repeatedly controlled price throughout November and December.
Daily Timeframe (1D)
On the daily chart, NVDA has been drifting sideways-to-lower ever since rejecting the upper supply zone near 198–212. The structure hasn’t broken down completely — the stock is still defending its rising trendline — but momentum has clearly cooled.
A key observation on the daily chart is how NVDA keeps holding above the mid-line around 176–178, which acts as both a structural support and a zone where prior liquidity was collected. Beneath this, deeper demand sits between 164–170, with a much larger demand block far lower on the chart that has not been touched in months.
If NVDA loses the 176–178 zone on the daily, the market will likely move swiftly into the 164–170 liquidity pocket. But if buyers continue defending the trendline, NVDA may attempt another approach toward resistance.
A daily close above 185–186 would be the first sign of strength returning.
1-Hour Timeframe (1H)
On the 1H chart, NVDA is compressing beneath a clear supply shelf between 183–186. This area has acted as a ceiling multiple times over the past sessions. Each approach into the zone has produced a rejection, and the most recent push created a BOS but failed to maintain follow-through.
At the same time, NVDA is sliding into a rising intraday trendline, creating a tightening wedge. This type of structure often forces a decisive move — either a breakout into the supply zone or a breakdown into the liquidity block below.
A reclaim and hold above 184–186 is the confirmation needed for bullish continuation. Without that, the 1H chart continues to lean toward a retest of 180, 178, or even the stronger demand at 174–176.
Short-term momentum is weakening, but buyers are still defending intraday demand. This makes NVDA a range-bound market heading into the week.
15-Minute Timeframe (15M)
The 15M timeframe highlights this compression even more clearly. NVDA is trading within a tight descending channel inside a larger demand zone. Each bounce is getting smaller, but sellers also haven’t been able to break the lower block around 180–182 despite repeated tests.
This type of price action suggests the market is building energy for a larger move. The path becomes clear once NVDA either:
* sweeps the 180–182 demand and sharply reverses
or
* breaks cleanly above the 183–186 supply band and retests it as support
Until that happens, price is likely to remain choppy, and intraday trades should be taken with caution.
A break below 180 on the 15M would shift the structure decisively bearish intraday.
GEX Insight (Options Positioning & Dealer Influence)
NVDA’s gamma landscape explains why the stock has been stuck between 180 and 186.
The region around 184–186 aligns with the highest positive NET GEX, which creates a natural resistance band where dealer hedging suppresses upward momentum. This matches the repeated intraday rejections you’re seeing on the chart.
Above 190, gamma begins to thin out significantly. If NVDA can break and hold above the 186 supply zone, the path toward 192–195 becomes much easier because hedging pressure shifts from restrictive to supportive.
Below 180, gamma flips and begins pulling price toward lower put-heavy regions:
* 172
* 165
* 162.5
These areas align cleanly with the chart’s major liquidity blocks.
In summary:
* Staying below 186 keeps NVDA pinned
* Breaking 186 opens the path toward 190–195
* Losing 180 exposes liquidity down to 172–165
GEX and price action are in full agreement this week.
Trading Focus for the Week
NVDA is coiling into a decision zone. The idea is not to predict the breakout but to react once the market commits.
The cleanest long setups come from:
* A liquidity sweep into 180–182 followed by a clear reversal
* A breakout and hold above 186
The cleanest short setups come from:
* Rejection wicks in the 183–186 supply zone
* A confirmed breakdown below 180
With momentum fading but structure still intact, NVDA is preparing for a directional move — traders just need to wait for confirmation.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk, and traders should conduct their own research and apply proper risk management before entering any position.
(NVDA) Complex China Saga and Strategic ImplicationsRecent developments surrounding Nvidia’s ability to sell advanced chips in China highlight the profound geopolitical and commercial challenges facing the AI semiconductor leader. The announcement of a deal by the Trump administration to allow the sale of its H200 chip to "approved customers" in China represents a significant, yet highly conditional, policy shift.
The Shrinking China Footprint and Revenue Impact
The data underscores a dramatic contraction in Nvidia's China business, a direct result of successive U.S. export controls. For the latest quarter, Nvidia's revenue from China stood at $2.8 billion, accounting for just 5% of its total sales. This figure is starkly lower than:
The $8.4 billion Wall Street had projected for the quarter.
The 13% of overall revenue China represented in the previous fiscal year.
This decline illustrates the substantial financial toll of the regulatory environment. In contrast, Nvidia's revenue from the United States ($39.2 billion) and Taiwan ($13.8 billion) demonstrates where its growth momentum has decisively shifted, fueled by global demand for AI data center infrastructure outside of the restricted Chinese market.
A Rollercoaster of Regulatory Actions
The path to the current "approved customers" deal has been fraught with volatility:
The April Ban: An unexpected move by the Trump administration in April effectively banned sales of the H20 chip to China, causing a significant stock sell-off and an estimated $2.5 billion in lost Q1 revenue.
The August Deal: Following intensive lobbying by CEO Jensen Huang, President Trump agreed in August to grant export licenses. However, this came with an unprecedented condition: Nvidia would be required to share 15% of its China revenues with the U.S. government.
Chinese Retaliation: In a complicating twist, Chinese regulators subsequently moved to ban domestic tech firms from purchasing the very H20 chips Nvidia was now licensed to sell, reflecting the tit-for-tat nature of the tech war and potentially undermining the value of the U.S. concession.
Nvidia's CFO, Colette Kress, encapsulated the company's position, stating disappointment over being unable to ship "more competitive" products to China while committing to continued engagement with both governments to advocate for global competitiveness.
Strategic and Market Implications
This situation places Nvidia in a delicate balancing act. The new deal potentially opens a narrow channel for revenue, but under terms that cede a portion of profits and face demand-side uncertainty from Chinese buyers. The company's strategy appears to be one of resilient diversification, having successfully reallocated its immensely sought-after supply to other global markets, as evidenced by its monumental U.S. and Taiwan revenue figures. The long-term risk remains that prolonged restrictions could accelerate China's drive for semiconductor self-sufficiency, creating future competitors.
Technical Perspective and Key Levels
From a chart analysis standpoint, following the significant news-driven price movements, key Fibonacci retracement levels have emerged as critical technical supports for Nvidia's stock:
First Support Zone: $182.53 (0.236 Fibonacci Level)
This represents the initial level where buyers may step in to defend the prevailing trend during a pullback. Holding above this zone would suggest underlying strength remains intact.
Second & Stronger Support Zone: $164.20 (0.382 Fibonacci Level)
This is identified as a more significant support area. A test of this level would indicate a deeper correction, and its ability to hold would be a crucial test of the stock's structural bullish foundation amid ongoing geopolitical headlines.
Conclusion
Nvidia's navigation of the U.S.-China tech conflict is a masterclass in managing geopolitical risk. While the new "approved customers" deal provides a partial and costly relief valve, the company's financial performance proves its growth is no longer dependent on the Chinese market. Investors must weigh the incremental benefit of reopened, albeit diminished, China sales against the persistent risks of regulatory whiplash from both nations and the long-term strategic decoupling of the tech ecosystems. The stock's trajectory will likely continue to be influenced by these macro forces, with the identified technical support levels serving as important gauges of market sentiment through the volatility.
Long trade
🟩 Buy-Side trade
Pair: NVDA
Date: Mon 1st Dec 2025
Time: 12:30 pm
Session: NY Session PM
Entry: 180.25
TP: 195.71 (8.57%)
SL: 178.54 (0.949%)
RR: 9.04
🟦 STRUCTURE
NVDA formed a bullish MSS → BOS on the 1H
Price retraced into discount (0.618 fib region)
Strong displacement candle confirmed the long bias
FVG inside retracement zone provided algorithmic entry logic
Target aligns with HTF premium zone around 195–200
🟨 LIQUIDITY
Sweep of sell-side liquidity beneath 178.50–179.00
Inducement engineered before bullish expansion
Upside liquidity magnets:
187.80 (0.382 retracement)
195.70 HTF equilibrium level
Gap above → likely draw-on-liquidity
Large volume cluster supports bullish continuation
🟧 SENTIMENT
NVDA remains fundamentally bid due to AI/semiconductor strength
Broader tech sector showing rotation back into high-beta names
NY PM session typically generates continuation moves
Market repricing risk-on after morning volatility clearance
NVDA Market Preview – December 5NVDA heads into tomorrow’s session sitting at a major decision zone. Price has been tightening inside a rising channel, and the structure suggests a directional break is getting close. Supply and demand zones are well-defined, and current positioning gives a clear sense of where the next move may develop.
Higher-Timeframe Structure (1H)
NVDA is still holding a mid-term bullish structure that began at the 176–178 demand zone. Buyers have consistently defended this region, confirming its significance.
However, the 183.50–185 area continues to act as the main supply zone, rejecting price multiple times.
Key Zones
* Supply: 183.50–185.00
* Demand: 178–180
Price is now pressing toward the apex of a rising channel. This type of compression often leads to a decisive breakout or breakdown once the market chooses a direction.
Intraday Structure (15M)
A recent CHoCH did not lead to strong continuation, and NVDA is currently retesting its internal trendline with diminishing momentum.
Bearish signs
* Consistent rejection inside the supply zone
* Multiple upper wicks showing absorption
* Declining volume into resistance
* GEX resistance overhead
Bullish signs
* Rising trendline still holding
* No confirmed bearish BOS
* Liquidity resting above 185 that could attract a sweep
The structure remains balanced, but vulnerable. The next clean break will likely dictate direction for the session.
GEX Outlook for December 5
* Call wall: 187.5–190
* Put support: 179 / 177
* Neutral magnet: 182–183
A breakout above 183.50 creates room for 185 → 187.50.
A rejection here increases the probability of a rotation back toward 180 and possibly 178, aligning with demand and put support.
Dealer positioning is fairly neutral, suggesting the session may be two-sided unless a clear breakout occurs.
What to Watch for Tomorrow
Bullish Scenario
Requires a strong break and hold above 185, followed by a clean retest.
Targets: 187.50, then 190 (likely rejection area).
Bearish Scenario (favored unless macro shifts)
Needs another failed test at 183.5–185 and a loss of the 15M trendline.
Targets: 181.5 → 180 → 178.5–179.
Bias Going Into the Session
The lean is bearish-to-neutral unless NVDA reclaims and holds above 185.
Key reasons:
* Momentum softening at resistance
* Lower highs forming intraday
* SMC sell zones consistently respected
* GEX resistance overhead
* CHoCH has not converted into bullish structure
Expect chop early, followed by clearer direction once the trendline breaks.
Trading Thoughts
For possible longs:
* Wait for confirmation above 185
* Look for retest entry, not breakout chasing
* First upside target: 187.50
For possible shorts:
* Preferred zone: 184–185
* Downside targets: 181.5 → 180 → 178.8
For scalpers:
* 183.10 is the first micro pivot
* Trendline break on 15M will define direction
* Avoid trading the center of the range — poor R/R
Disclaimer
This outlook reflects personal market analysis and is for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always trade your own plan and manage risk accordingly.
NVDA Put Signal Triggered: Institutions Turning BearishNVDA QuantSignals V3 Weekly 2025-12-08
Direction: PUT Bias
Confidence: 58% (Medium)
Expiry: 2025-12-12 (4 days)
Entry Zone: $1.62 – $3.02 (depending on strike)
Recommended Strikes:
$182.50 (higher delta, stronger move)
$180.00 (safer, cheaper, wider buffer)
🧠 Why NVDA Shows Downside Risk
Katy AI forecasts a short-term decline of –0.73% to –1.70%
Options Flow: Extremely bearish — PCR 5.20 → 7.05 (institutions buying puts aggressively)
Technical Levels:
Strong resistance at $188.00 – $188.34
Key support around $180.00
Volume 2.4× above average → exhaustion at the highs
News: Mixed sentiment, increased volatility, China export headlines
🎯 Trade Setup (Simple Version)
Buy Puts
Strike: 180–182.5
Entry: $1.62–$3.02
Target: $2.45–$4.50
Stop Loss: $1.20–$2.10
Position Size: Small (2%)
⚠️ Risk Note
Katy’s confidence is only 50% and LLM shows conflict, so treat this as a high-risk, short-duration weekly trade.
Nvidia (NASDAQ: $NVDA) $2B Synopsys Bet Reshapes AI’s FutureNvidia’s recent $2 billion investment in Synopsys signals one of the company’s most strategic and transformative moves in the AI and semiconductor race. The purchase—completed at $414.79 per share for a 2.6% stake—pushes Nvidia deeper into the core infrastructure that powers advanced computing, chip design, and the next generation of AI hardware.
While mainstream attention often focuses on AI chatbots, consumer apps, and model breakthroughs, Nvidia’s Synopsys stake shows a different priority: controlling the foundational technologies that make AI possible. Synopsys is one of the world’s most critical companies in electronic design automation (EDA), providing the tools used to design semiconductors, aerospace systems, and highly complex digital architectures. By aligning with Synopsys, Nvidia effectively plugs into the heart of global chip innovation.
Experts suggest this isn’t merely a passive financial investment—it’s a strategic partnership aimed at accelerating breakthroughs in AI-optimized chips, automation tools, and silicon-level performance. With Nvidia already dominating GPU computing, securing influence within Synopsys strengthens its command over the entire AI hardware pipeline, from design to deployment.
This move also positions Nvidia ahead of rivals as the semiconductor landscape becomes increasingly defined by custom silicon, automated chip design, and hardware-accelerated AI systems. A deeper integration between both companies could unlock new workflows where AI models help design better chips—and those chips, in turn, train better AI models.
While media narratives often revolve around front-end AI products, Nvidia’s quiet focus on infrastructure reveals its long-term strategy: build, own, and optimize the invisible technological backbone of the AI revolution. With Synopsys now in its orbit, Nvidia is not just participating in the future of AI—it’s helping engineer it.
Technical analysis
Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is bouncing from a key demand zone after pulling back from the $212 resistance area. Price is reclaiming short-term momentum as it holds above the major support region around $145, which previously acted as a strong accumulation zone. As long as NVDA maintains support above this level, the structure favors a continuation toward the $200+ range, with $212 remaining the next major hurdle. A breakdown below $145 would open room for a deeper correction, but current price action signals buyers are defending the trend.
NVDA Wave Analysis – 4 December 2025- NVDA reversed from support zone
- Likely to rise to resistance level 194.30
NVDA recently reversed with the daily Hammer from the support zone between the multi-month support level 170.00 (which has been reversing the price from August), lower daily Bollinger Band and the support trendline of the daily down channel from October.
NVDA just broke the aforementioned down channel from October – which is lily to strengthen the bullish pressure on NVDA .
Given the clear daily uptrend, NVDA can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 194.30 (which reversed the price at the end of November).
NVDA breaks out of wedge and above 20ema. Mega bullish. NVDA’s push above the wedge and reclaim of the 20‑EMA tilts the very short‑term bias back to bullish, but it’s breaking into nearby resistance rather than into empty space.
Where price sits now NVDA is trading around 187–188, just above today’s 20‑EMA (~184) and basically on top of the 50‑EMA/50‑SMA cluster near 187–188.
The prior month’s action had price oscillating around these MAs, so this area is a battle zone, not clean air. Short‑term technical services still flag 20‑EMA as a “Sell” and 50‑EMA as “Sell/neutral,” reflecting recent downside momentum despite today’s pop.
Wedge breakout implications A breakout above a falling wedge after a pullback in a larger uptrend is typically bullish, with measured‑move targets often taken as the wedge height projected from the breakout.
Given NVDA’s broader uptrend (200‑day EMA/SMA rising around 155–163), this looks more like a continuation setup; the breakout favors a retest of the upper recent range (low 190s, then 200+) if it holds above the 20‑EMA.
Key intraday / short‑term levelsSupport to hold the breakout:183–185: 20‑EMA zone and today’s intraday low area; losing this quickly would make today look like a fake‑out 178–180: prior micro‑swing area; below here, wedge breakout thesis weakens and risk shifts back toward 170s.Resistance / upside magnets:190–192: recent local resistance band flagged by several TA services and discretionary analysts as a sell zone on first touch.
Above 192 on strong volume opens room toward the prior high zone near 200–212 over days to weeks if the AI/semis tape cooperates.
Good luck. Fortune awaits.
This is not financial advice. Please do your due diligence.
DeepSeek Smuggles Nvidia (NASDAQ: $NVDA) Chips for AI ModelChinese AI startup DeepSeek is reportedly building its next major artificial intelligence model using thousands of Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) Blackwell-generation GPUs that were smuggled into China, according to a detailed investigation by The Information. These chips, among Nvidia’s most advanced AI accelerators, are restricted under U.S. export controls, making them unavailable to Chinese buyers through legal channels.
The report highlights a sophisticated smuggling operation in which servers equipped with Blackwell chips were initially shipped to data centers in countries not affected by U.S. restrictions. The servers were then dismantled, and their components imported into China in pieces, bypassing regulatory scrutiny. Most Nvidia chips are produced in Taiwan and distributed globally through a network of intermediaries, creating gaps that can be exploited.
For DeepSeek, access to the Blackwell architecture provides a significant performance advantage. It enables faster training times, larger models, and superior inference efficiency—critical factors in the global AI race. Despite Beijing’s aggressive support for domestic semiconductor advancement, Chinese-made AI chips still trail Nvidia’s top-tier performance, according to executives from Chinese AI companies.
Nvidia, responding to the allegations, stated that it has not seen evidence of “phantom data centers” being constructed and dismantled to disguise smuggling routes, though the company emphasized that it investigates any credible tip it receives.
Technical Analysis
NVDA’s price action remains in a broad structural uptrend, despite recent volatility. The stock is currently trading near $185, just below its shorter-term moving average. A critical resistance zone lies around $212, marked by the previous swing high. A breakout above this level could resume the macro uptrend, potentially targeting new all-time highs.
If price fails to reclaim momentum, downside support sits around $170, where significant demand previously pushed price higher. A deeper correction could revisit the $145 liquidity zone, aligning with historical consolidation. Overall, NVDA remains technically strong, but sensitive to geopolitical and regulatory headlines.
How low do we go? NVDAI get my information on where stocks might be headed based on my dowsing- as-in, with a pendulum. A super interesting thing occurred, which is that I did a reading on NVDA back on Feb. 25, 2024, which suggested a future date to be aware of in 20 months from then.
I just put the date in my my phone calendar for Oct. 24th 2025 with a couple alerts so I can pay attention. When I saw NVDA made these highs and pulled right back, I was super intrigued as it was in my date window. It's now head and shouldersy looking, and as such, I did draw a couple symmetry lines (are annotated as gray dashes) for reference.
(Love than my target is right above the second symmetry.)
I have been getting lower levels on NVDA, but I'm getting tired of some of these multiple numbers I get, so I just asked what advice there is and it said to get a date.
When I get a date, it often means a price revisit, or could be a pattern repeats from the past.. In this case, it's suggesting a price revisit to where NVDA traded on 11/14/2024. Then, I asked how many percent down from the ath at $212 & it gives me 31%.
My joy came when I drew the price lines out for the date, and lo and behold they overlay the 31% down price (146.41)!
I attempted to find out when this may hit, and I get Feb. 20th or 26th zone.
Let's boogie!
NVIDIA (NVDA) – Daily AnalysisNVIDIA (NVDA) – Daily Analysis
The chart is showing something interesting here:
Price has been trending down under the green bearish trendline, but we’re now seeing bullish pressure building right on top of the red long-term bullish trendline.
This creates a compression zone — and usually, NVIDIA doesn’t stay quiet in these zones for long.
What’s the key idea?
If price breaks and closes above the green trendline, momentum can shift bullish again, and the next logical magnet is the yellow horizontal level at 196.31.
Why that level?
It’s a major historical reaction zone.
It aligns as a clean liquidity pool.
Market loves to revisit these "00-zones" and round-number clusters.
Probability Outlook
With current price basing at 183.59 and respecting the bullish diagonal:
➡️ A move toward the yellow line (196.31) is highly probable once the trendline break is confirmed.
Market Conditions are the Cycle of a Bull or Bear MarketEverything you are learning is beneficial to your trading so long as the information is factual and accurate and NOT hype, scams, fraud, misinformation or manipulative information.
One way to determine if what you are learning is accurate or not is to understand the CYCLEs of the Bull Market and Bear market which are entirely different.
A Great Bull Market is all about new technologies that will and are displacing old technology and are disruptive forces for the older companies whose once new technology is aging and out of date.
Bull Markets have 6 primary market conditions. Each market condition is unique in how you trade that with your trading style, how you find stocks to trade, risk inherent in that market condition and profit opportunities.
We are in the early years of a Great Bull Market. Bull Markets do not just go upward. Retracements, Short Term Corrections, and Intermediate Trend corrections and Flash Crashes, occur periodically when the price of a stock is too far above the fundamental level for that stock. This impacts the indexes.
If a correction causes a sudden collapse of the stock price to be below the fundamental level which is a horizontal price level, then Dark Pools will start bargain hunting and buy the stock to move it back into their Buy Zone.
Is Nvidia’s Next Up Leg Coming?Nvidia has paused after a rally, and some traders may think the next up leg is coming.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the series of lower highs since November 3. The AI chip giant closed above that falling trendline yesterday, which could mean that the short-term resistance is fading.
Second is the failed rally on November 20 after earnings and revenue beat estimates. MACD was falling at the time, which prevented the shares from holding their gains. But now the oscillator has turned up, which may suggest that momentum has grown more favorable.
Third, prices have consolidated around their 50- and 100-day simple moving averages. That could reflect a bullish long-term trend.
Next, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is rising toward the 21-day EMA. Crossing above may signal bullishness in the short term.
Finally, NVDA is a highly active underlier in the options market. (Its average daily volume of 3.6 million contracts ranks first in the S&P 500, according to TradeStation data.) That may help traders take positions with calls and puts.
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NVDA — WEEK 49 TREND REPORT | 12/03/2025NVDA — WEEK 49 TREND REPORT | 12/03/2025
Ticker: NASDAQ:NVDA
Timeframe: WEEKLY
This is a reactive structural classification of NVIDIA based on the weekly chart as of this timestamp. Price conditions are evaluated as they stand — nothing here is predictive or forward-assumptive.
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1) Current Trend Condition [ Numbers to Watch ]
• Current Price @ 180.26$
• Trend Duration: +31 weeks (Bullish)
• Trend Reversal Level (Bullish): 190.87$
• Trend Reversal Level (Bearish Confirmation): 176.52$
• Pullback Support : 167.75$
• Correction Support : 132.86$
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2) Structure Health
• Retracement Phase:
Pullback (approaching 78.6%)
• Position Status:
Caution (interacting with structural layers)
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3) Temperature :
Cooling Phase
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4) Momentum :
Coiling
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5) Market Sentiment
Bullish
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Author’s Note
This analysis is fully reactive, not predictive. Market conditions, trend structure, and behavior are classified as they appear in real time. The objective is to identify where directional shifts first occurred, where structural integrity remains intact, and where it would begin to weaken if key levels were breached.
Predictive analysis projects outcomes that do not exist yet. Without price confirmation, prediction is built on baseless assumptions. This framework avoids that entirely by responding only to verified structural changes and live conditions.
The levels shown simply identify where the current trend structure first shifted and where it would begin to lose integrity if breached. Recognizing these boundaries allows for clearer interpretation of market behavior without relying on forward guarantees, speculative projections, or unsupported assumptions.
⸻
Methodology Overview
This classification framework evaluates directional conditions using internal trend-interpretation logic that references price behavior relative to its structural layers. These relationships are used to identify when price movement aligns with the framework’s criteria for directional phases, transition points, or regime shifts. Visual elements or structural labels reflect these internal interpretations, rather than explicit trading signals or preset indicator crossovers. This framework is observational only and does not imply future outcomes.
NVDA🌎NVIDIA: At the Peak or the Brink?
Nvidia's record highs are accompanied by warning signs. A market cap of $4.37 trillion and a P/E ratio of 51 indicate inflated expectations.
Risks:
Speculative demand: The $23.7 billion investment looks like an artificial market pump.
Macro threats: The AI boom will face energy shortages.
Historical parallel: The scenario mirrors Cisco's pre-dot-com bubble.
Fierce competition: AMD, Intel, and cloud giants are creating their own chips.
Growth drivers:
Leadership in AI, a closed CUDA ecosystem, and 66% data center revenue growth.
Nvidia is a leader, but its shares have become a high-risk asset. Any slowdown in business performance will lead to a collapse in the stock price.
The baseline scenario is a broad sideways trend.






















