TSLA trade ideas
EV Tax Credit Did Nothing For $TSLA StockThe renewed $7500 EV tax credit in 2022 seemed like a pleasant surprise for the EV industry and likely encouraged some producers to invest in EV cars and transportation. But the way that the stock market works, which discounts the future back to the present, it doesn't always reward Government handouts.
We can see that here in the NASDAQ:TSLA shares which in July 2022 were in a range of $314.67-271.81 and over 3 years later the stock had fallen as low as $101.81 and rebounded back to $488.54 in December 2024 before settling back in July 2025 at $338.00-$288.77, nearly identical to where it was when the $7500 subsidy was added.
I have made the overlay here of the IPO all the way to the peak in 2021 at 414.50 to remind investors that NASDAQ:TSLA has long periods of time sideways before big price advances. The 2019 bottom was significant because it was a crucial time when the financial condition of Tesla turned the corner after they struggled to raise capital due to poor credit ratings by the ratings agencies. The Tesla Model Y came out and all of the sudden it was clear that profitability was in the future. Model Y was on the way to being the #1 car in the world and Tesla would be able to raise capital and invest in the next generation of technology, its FSD or Full Self Driving hardware and software.
Tesla has come a long way since 2019 in driving down its costs of production to compete with gasoline cars. The disruption from 2020-2022 with supply chain issues and ramped up commodity prices slowed down progress on cost cutting, however the innovations in 48V, wire harnesses, giant presses and more have reduced processes and parts to drive down prices and make Teslas more affordable.
Since 2016, the price of a kWh of battery (that gets 3-4-5 miles per kWh in a car) has dropped from $500 to under $100, which has substantially improved affordability and profitability for Tesla.
Looking forward: There are many more products coming out of Tesla and will watch and try out each product as it comes out.
I hope you appreciate the chart of NASDAQ:TSLA shares compared to the EV TAX CREDIT from JULY 2022 until now so you can see how the stock has gone nowhere since then.
The EV tax credit expires September 30 and I imagine many will rush out to take advantage of that discount. States also have incentives. Check your state DMV website and see.
Regards,
Tim West
August 15, 2025. 11:34AM EST
TESLA BREAKOUT -- TARGET LEVELSHello Traders! Tesla recently broke out of its wedge pattern, with price currently consolidating just outside the breakout trendline.
Price should continue to the upside based on the technicals.
I have charted the target levels for Tesla for an upside move.
Thanks everyone!
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Tesla possible LongTesla’s recent breakout above the long-term descending trendline is a positive technical signal, suggesting that market sentiment may be shifting toward a bullish phase. However, the breakout lacks strong volume confirmation, leaving the possibility of a false breakout on the table.
The key battle zone now lies between USD 349.29 and 367.40 — if bulls can push and sustain the price above this range, the door opens for a larger rally toward the USD 400+ area. On the other hand, failure to hold above USD 331 would put the breakout at risk, potentially sending the price back into the USD 308–290 support zone.
In short, Tesla stands at a technical crossroads: momentum favors buyers, but confirmation through sustained price action and volume is essential before a strong uptrend can be confirmed.
TSLA Is Coiling at Key Resistance — $354 Break Is KeyTesla just popped up on my turnaround screen. A deeper look at TSLA’s recent daily candles, reveals that the bodies are getting smaller compared to the big surges we saw earlier in the year. That’s classic “energy compression,” not a big reversal pattern like a bearish engulfing or evening star, but more of a tight pause near the upper range. We’ve basically gone from wide, high-momentum candles in April–June to a sideways drift with low volatility, which is exactly the kind of setup that tends to precede an impulsive move.
Trend-wise, TSLA had a monster parabolic run into Dec 2024, then took a serious hit from Feb to Apr 2025. Now sentiment’s shifting — it’s less about fearing more downside and more about not wanting to miss the next leg up. You can see it in how dips toward $280–$300 keep getting bought. Momentum indicators agree: MACD is flat and hugging zero (neutral but primed), RSI is sitting at 57, not overbought, so there’s still gas in the tank for another rally before hitting exhaustion.
Structurally, TSLA’s stuck between two Darvas boxes. The lower one is $280–$340, the upper is $370–$480. Right now we’re pressing against that $340 ceiling, a true decision zone. Break it with strong volume and you’re looking at $354, $372.5, maybe even $391. Fail here, and it’s back toward $300–$280.
Fibonacci retracements from the $465 high to the $280 low line up nicely with this view. $322 is the 23.6% level, $354 is the 38.2%, $372.5 is 50%, $391 is 61.8%, and $422 is 78.6%. We’re currently just above that $322 mark, fighting for $354 — reclaiming it would be a pretty bullish milestone.
Bottom line, TSLA looks like it’s coiling for a breakout. The $340–$354 range is the trigger zone. Watch for a volume surge and a daily close over $354 to confirm we’re moving into the next box. If that doesn’t happen and we slip under $300, expect a retest of $280.
Tesla (TSLA) – Swing Buy SetupTesla (TSLA) – Swing Buy Setup
Bias:
Bullish short-to-medium term, targeting a strong supply zone above.
Technical Breakdown:
Price has completed a 5-wave structure to the upside, breaking above a wedge pattern and filling a volume gap.
Current price action shows a clean breakout with potential continuation toward the $416.06 supply target.
Key demand zone sits below current price, acting as a retest area after breakout.
The strong supply target at $416 aligns with historical resistance and unmitigated order block.
Entry Zone:
Ideal pullback entries: $325–$335 range (grey demand zone).
Confirmation with bullish candle close on the retest for safer entries.
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: $380 (minor structure resistance)
TP2: $416 (strong supply zone)
Invalidation Level:
$297.82 – Break below here invalidates bullish structure.
$TSLA TASince 2019, NASDAQ:TSLA has been trending within a long-term bullish channel. From 2019 to Jan 2023, price completed a 5-wave Elliott impulse sequence, with each impulse wave showing bearish volume divergence — confirming volume peaks and overbought RSI conditions into the Oct ’21 top.
This was followed by a retracement triangle, kicking off a 3-year corrective phase in a 5-3-5 Elliott retracement structure. The impulsive down legs were accompanied by rising volume, while the corrective bounces saw declining volume. The final bearish wave showed exhaustion, with bullish divergence emerging via stable-to-rising volume and a flattening RSI.
An 8-wave Elliott fractal then formed, with volume alignment, ending at a $222 support zone — confluencing with peak volume and a historically oversold RSI. From here, price formed a bull pennant and has since broken above resistance, albeit on weak volume — suggesting possible whipsaw risk.
If price closes firmly above resistance, the next leg could target the upper channel near $488.
Tesla Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 081225Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 335/61.80%
Chart time frame:B
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress:A
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) 61.80% support
D) Hit the bottom
E) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks.
If you want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
Is this a higher high on Tesla daily?!I haven't been trading @TSLA for awhile but while I was doing some charting this is what caught my eye.
The lower highs and lower lows trend seems to maybe have come to an end. It broke the trendline, making a higher high & looks like I might turn that last lower high into support now...we will see.😎
LONG | TSLA NASDAQ:TSLA
TSLA is pressing against a key confluence zone $352–$356 (TP1), aligning with daily and weekly resistance. A confirmed breakout could open the path toward $367 (TP2) and $404 (TP3) in the medium term.
Supports: $326 / $318 – must hold to maintain bullish momentum.
Bias: Bullish if above $326; consolidation or pullback likely if rejected at $356.
A monthly close above $367 would confirm a long-term cup breakout, projecting toward the $500 area over the next cycles.
TSLA – TA + GEX Confluence for August 13, 202530-Minute Price Action
TSLA remains inside a descending triangle after an earlier breakout attempt toward $345.75.
* Resistance: $345.75 – repeated rejections, forming the triangle’s upper boundary.
* Support: $339.03 – near-term floor; $332.99 – key downside pivot.
* Indicators:
* MACD is attempting to recover from negative territory, showing early momentum shift but still lacking strong follow-through.
* Stoch RSI in the mid-to-high zone — room for continuation up if buyers push through resistance, but also vulnerable to a quick fade if rejected.
1-Hour GEX Insights
* Highest Positive NET GEX / Gamma Wall: $350 – strongest upside resistance zone.
* Key Call Walls Above: $347.5 (2nd gamma wall), $350 (primary wall), $355–$357.5 (3rd wall).
* Put Support: $327.5 (first gamma support) and $320 (major downside defense).
* IVR: 4.7 – very low implied volatility rank, making long options relatively cheap.
TA + GEX Combined Read
The 30m descending triangle structure is pressing TSLA into a decision point.
* The $345.75 resistance aligns closely with the $347.5 GEX wall — meaning bulls need strong volume to break out.
* A breakout above $347.5 opens a cleaner path toward the $350 gamma wall, where heavy hedging could either cap price or trigger a gamma squeeze to $355+.
* A failure to clear $345.75 combined with a break below $339 could invite sellers to push toward $332.99 and possibly $327.5 GEX support.
Trading Scenarios for August 13
* Bullish Breakout: Long calls or debit spreads above $347.5 targeting $350–$355.
* Bearish Breakdown: Puts or put spreads if $339 breaks, targeting $333 and $327.5.
* Sideways/Neutral: Credit spreads in the $339–$347 range could work given low IVR, but expect volatility if $347.5 breaks.
Reasoning
The 30m chart’s descending triangle suggests consolidation before a larger move. The 1h GEX data confirms the critical nature of $347.5 and $350. A breach above these could accelerate buying via gamma squeeze mechanics, while a breakdown under $339 targets deeper GEX supports.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk appropriately before trading.
Tesla: Upward Pressure, but Bears May Soon Regain ControlTesla has once again faced upward pressure, which pushed the stock toward resistance at $373.04. However, our primary expectation is that the bears will soon regain control, setting off further sell-offs within the ongoing downward impulse. Step by step, this magenta five-wave move is expected to break below support at $215.01. If price moves above the $373.04 level, our alternative scenario will become significantly more relevant. If the stock even surpasses the higher threshold at $405.54, we will ultimately shift to this alternative view and classify Tesla as being in a sustained uptrend of blue wave alt.(III) , which would extend beyond $488.50. In this 39% likely scenario, wave alt.(II) would already be complete.
Tesla (TSLA) Shares Break Above July HighTesla (TSLA) Shares Break Above July High
As the chart indicates, Tesla (TSLA) stock is demonstrating a pronounced upward trend. Specifically, its price:
→ has risen for four consecutive days;
→ has moved above its July high;
→ has gained over 10% since the start of August.
Why Is TSLA Rising?
Among other factors, TSLA’s share price is being driven by:
→ News that Tesla has extended the estimated delivery time for the Model Y from one–three weeks to four–six weeks (according to Barron’s). This may signal an increase in orders, boosting market optimism after the first two quarters showed a notable decline in electric vehicle sales.
→ Statements from Elon Musk regarding the development of the robotaxi project. According to him, Tesla’s robotaxi service will be publicly available next month. Musk also noted that Tesla has achieved several additional breakthroughs in artificial intelligence that will make car control remarkably similar to that of a human driver.
Can TSLA continue to rise?
Technical Analysis of TSLA Stock
When analysing the TSLA chart on 24 July, we identified a broadening triangle pattern with its axis around $317. Since then:
→ the price tested the lower boundary of the triangle and reversed upwards (as indicated by the arrow);
→ importantly, it broke through the upper boundary. This was made possible by the improvement in the fundamental backdrop (as reflected in the news), leading to a shift in market sentiment in favour of buyers.
Yesterday, the NASDAQ recorded the highest trading volume in August, with the daily candle closing below its midpoint – a sign of increased seller activity, further confirmed by the most recent long bearish candle on the hourly chart.
Given the above (as well as the RSI indicator approaching overbought levels), we could assume that TSLA’s share price could see a short-term correction following its rally in early August. Should the market follow this scenario, the price could pull back to the area highlighted in purple, which represents a significant support level, as it lies close to:
→ the upper boundary of the triangle (former resistance);
→ the lower boundary of the ascending channel (shown in blue);
→ the 50% retracement level of the A→B impulse;
→ price zones of strong upward movement (a bullish imbalance zone, as described by the Fair Value Gap pattern of the Smart Money Concept methodology).
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