Gold Dec. Futures (MCX) – Intraday Analysis 6th Oct., 2025MCX:GOLD1!
Gold is consolidating at 119,369 after a strong bounce, with price action pressing against a pivotal resistance area (zero line) and testing higher-low support in a sideways-to-bullish formation.
Bullish (Long) Setup
Long Entry (118,955):
Fresh longs are actionable above 118,955 with price holding above recent swing support, confirming buyers’ intent for further upside.
Adds can be managed at 118,779 if dips hold with rising volume and higher lows.
Upside Targets:
120,256 (Target 1): First mapped supply zone and likely profit-booking area.
120,826 (Target 2): Higher bullish extension and next major resistance.
Stop Loss:
Keep stops below 118,602 (short entry area) or 118,457 (long exit) to reduce risk in case of reversal.
Bearish (Short) Setup
Short Entry (118,602):
Shorts activate below 118,602, confirming breakdown of support and shifting momentum to sellers.
Downside Targets:
118,410 (Target 1): Bounce/support area for first profit booking.
117,840 (Target 2): Deeper extension and next major demand zone.
Stop Loss:
Exit shorts if price retakes 118,955 to avoid losses on failed breakdown.
Range/Neutral Logic
Zero Line (119,333):
Current action near the zero line marks the market balance; a sustained close above 119,333 supports bullish momentum, while repeated rejection turns bias sideways or soft bearish.
Wait for a breakout from the zero line for high-conviction trades.
XAUTRY1! trade ideas
New ATHs for Gold?It seems like every single week, gold has been making new ATHs. With the overall bullish sentiment of the market plus the government shutdown, I don't see price slowing down any time soon.
As long as price is trading above the VWAP on lower time frames (4H, 1H, 15min), we could continue to see ATHs up to $4,000.
Me personally, I've been very cautious trading in these ATH markets. The reason is because price doesn't have much structure to follow. There's no clear vision of the target when entering longs and you're kind of just trading into no-mans-land.
We'll see what price decides to do early in the beginning of the trading week.
Long trade
Pair/Asset: MGC1! (Micro Gold Futures)
Trade Type: Buyside trade (Trade Idea)
Date: Tuesday, 30th Sept 2025
Session: 6:00 AM
Trade Details
Entry: 3841.3
Profit Level (TP): 3914.2 (+1.90%)
Stop Level (SL): 3822.0 (-0.50%)
Risk–Reward (RR): 3.78
Technical Narrative
Market Context:
Gold retraced sharply overnight, creating multiple fair value gaps (FVGs) on the 5m chart.
The strong rebound at ~3820 formed a structural low + BSLQ sweep, suggesting liquidity taken below support. A bullish recovery candle with high volume confirmed aggressive buyers stepping in.
Entry Justification:
Entry at 3841.3 coincided with the demand zone after the sweep.
EMA/WMA realignment showed a momentum shift back to the upside.
Volume spike supported bullish intent.
Target Rationale:
TP at 3914.2 chosen just below the prior swing high & inefficiency zone.
Broader context: If USD shows weakness during the NY session, upside continuation is likely?
DYX (1Hr TF) overview
Gold buy above 117815 tgt 120000 positonalGold buy above 117815 tgt 120000 positonal
Gold buy above 117815 tgt 120000 positonal
Gold buy above 117815 tgt 120000 positonalGold buy above 117815 tgt 120000 positonalGold buy above 117815 tgt 120000 positonalGold buy above 117815 tgt 120000 positonalGold buy above 117815 tgt 120000 positonalGold buy above 117815 tgt 120000 positonalGold buy above 117815 tgt 120000 positonalGold buy above 117815 tgt 120000 positonalGold buy above 117815 tgt 120000 positonalGold buy above 117815 tgt 120000 positonalGold buy above 117815 tgt 120000 positonalGold buy above 117815 tgt 120000 positonalGold buy above 117815 tgt 120000 positonal
Mcx Gold Profit-taking takes placeA proper analysis and technical analysis(gold)
The latest 4-hour chart of MCX Gold Futures (INR) reveals a strong uptrend supported by channel movement and clear Fibonacci retracement levels. The price has recently tested channel resistance around 116,625 INR and faced a minor pullback to 116,170 INR, suggesting short-term consolidation after a rally.
### Trend and Channel Analysis
- The price is moving within a rising channel, indicating persistent bullish momentum .
- The current price (116,170 INR) is slightly below recent highs, respecting the upper boundary of the channel, which signals overextension and potential for a corrective pullback .
- As long as the price remains inside the channel, the upward trend is intact.
### Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Key Fibonacci levels derived from the recent upmove:
- 0.0%: 116,625 INR (Recent swing high; nearest resistance)
- 23.60%: 113,656 INR (First near-term support; significant for shallow corrections)
- 38.20%: 111,819 INR (Secondary support; may attract buyers on stronger dips)
- 50.00%: 110,335 INR (Critical mid retracement; if broken, trend may weaken)
- 61.80%: 108,850 INR (Key retracement; strong institutional level)
- 78.60%: 106,737 INR (Major support if deep correction occurs)
### Support and Resistance
- Immediate resistance is at 116,625 INR; breaking above could trigger strong bullish momentum .
- Immediate support is at 113,656 INR; a drop below this could bring further downside to 111,819 INR .
- Psychological support is at 110,000 INR, just below the 50% retracement, and another at 108,750 INR near 61.8% .
### Momentum and Outlook
- The trend remains bullish unless the price closes below 113,656 INR .
- Watch for a buying opportunity if the price retests the lower channel or key Fibonacci levels without breaking the channel downward.
- If price sustains above 116,625 INR, next round of buying could push towards 118,000 INR.
### Summary Table
| Level | Price (INR) | Significance |
|-----------------|-------------|-------------------|
| Channel High | 116,625 | Immediate Resistance |
| 23.6% Fib | 113,656 | First Support |
| 38.2% Fib | 111,819 | Deeper Support |
| 50% Fib | 110,335 | Mid-Support |
| 61.8% Fib | 108,850 | Strong Support |
| 78.6% Fib | 106,737 | Deep Correction |
Overall, the outlook is bullish above 113,656 INR, but a close below key retracement levels could invite deeper correction towards 110,335 or 108,850 INR . Aggressive traders can ride the trend with tight stops below key levels, while conservative traders may wait for price action confirmation at or near Fibonacci supports.
Gold & Silver Push Higher as Markets Hunt for Safe HavensGold continues its climb, breaking through past resistance levels as investors flee into safety ahead of U.S. fiscal turmoil and rate ambiguity.
Meanwhile, silver is turning heads — rallying hard on the back of both safe-haven demand and its dual role as an industrial metal.
Together, they’re painting a picture: when anxiety and uncertainty rise, the metals step into the spotlight.
Gold hit an all-time high of $3,833.37/oz, closing at $3,829.63, on strong safe-haven demand amid U.S. shutdown fears and rate cut expectations.
It then extended gains, reaching $3,842.76/oz, putting it on track for its best month since August 2011 with an ~11.4% gain in September.
Silver also surged: it climbed to a 14-year high near $46.85/oz as industrial demand and safe-haven flows bolstered interest.
Earlier this year, silver broke $35/oz, a level not seen in over 13 years, driven by tight supply and robust demand in tech & green energy sectors.
Long GoldSo, without overexplaining: the overall structure is bullish, but the 15-minute timeframe is still bearish for now. You can either wait for the 15-minute to shift bullish before entering long, or take a more aggressive entry from the identified area. Also, keep in mind it’s Monday — the opening can be choppy. Still, the market currently looks bullish overall.
Is Gold Heading Higher?At the beginning of last week, price saw a much needed pullback on the commodity. Earlier news in the week was the catalyst that gold needed to head down.
Some thought we would head down further but gold seems to have traversed the entirety of its pullback, with price trading not too far away from its ATH.
With the dollar still gaining strength from future rate cut uncertainty, is this just a test of the top before further moves down? Could be. But future rate cut uncertainty might not be enough to keep gold from making new highs.
We do have a pretty news heavy week with NFP looming at the end of the week. Remember to always trade with caution.
Gold MCX Nov. Future - Intraday Technical Analysis - 29 Sep. MCX:GOLD2! Gold Futures are consolidating at 114,908, hovering just above the key zero line and prior resistance, after a robust recovery that has shifted the trend for the short term.
Bullish Scenario (Long Logic)
Long Entry (114,584):
Initiate longs above 114,584 as the hourly structure confirms a strong reversal from the recent swing low, and price is respecting the ascending trendline.
Additional positions can be scaled in near 114,432 if retracement holds above this support, aligning with higher lows in price structure and rising volume.
Upside Targets:
115,685 (Target 1): Represents the first major resistance and expected profit-booking zone, corresponding to recent swing highs.
116,175 (Target 2): Upper mapped resistance, extension target for momentum continuation if bullish sentiment escalates.
Stop Loss:
Maintain stops below 114,280, or tighter at 114,156 (Long Exit), protecting against immediate breakdowns and false breakouts.
Bearish Scenario (Short Logic)
Short Entry (114,280):
Shorts activate below 114,280, as this would break both horizontal and trendline supports, shifting bias back in favor of bears.
Downside Targets:
114,097 (Target 1): Bounce area and possible reversal/support from previous sessions.
113,607 (Target 2): Deeper target, highlights aggressive selling and fall to lower end of range.
Stop Loss:
Shorts should be covered above 114,891 if breakdown fails and price recovers above zero line and consolidation resistance.
Neutral/Trend Logic
Zero Line (114,891):
Acting as a pivotal point; hourly close above it favors continuation of uptrend, while failure to hold may result in quick reversion.
Rising trendline support and strengthening volume confirm buyers are in control, unless price slips below 114,432.
This structure supports disciplined setups for both breakout and reversal trades, with each scenario anchored by logical risk management and intraday targets.
Follow Chart Pathik for more Bullion related updates.
Gold Futures – 1H Demand Zone Retest | Bullish Setup📊 Trade Breakdown:
Pair: Gold Futures (MGC1!)
Timeframe: 1 Hour
Bias: Bullish
Type: Demand Zone Retest
Entry: Waiting for bullish engulfing confirmation
Stop Loss: Below 3770 demand zone
Take Profit:
• TP1: 3785
• TP2: 3813
Risk-to-Reward: ~1:2–1:3 depending on entry, but the overall target is 1:1!
⸻
📌 Key Confluences:
• Price broke previous structure high, confirming momentum shift
• Fresh 1H demand zone left behind after breakout
• Waiting for retest + signs of rejection before executing
• Bullish engulfing candle will be my trigger
• Trend bias still showing strength intraday
⸻
⚙️ Trade Setup:
Plan is to let price come back into demand, reject cleanly and print a bullish engulfing candle. That’s when I’ll look to execute long. Stop will be tucked below the zone around 3770 to keep risk defined. First target set at 3785 (recent structure) with extended target at 3813 (previous high/supply zone).
If the zone fails or no bullish confirmation shows, the setup is invalid and I stay flat.
⸻
🧠 Mindset:
Patience is everything. I’d rather wait for price to come back to me than force a trade. No FOMO. Clean invalidation, clean R:R. Confidence comes from the structure break and demand zone. Trusting the process and letting the trade play out on my terms.
“Trade Simple, Live Lavish”
Thanks LuxAlgoI have been searching for some tools and developing on my own. The trend line by LuxAlgo is far superior to what I was thinking about making. The combination of these two indicators and reading the market has already made a significant improvement in my winning rate and precision. Adding my own custom indicators, it's been difficult to lose on gains on bar replay.
Gold futuresOver the past four weeks, gold futures have continued their rally, climbing above the 3800 mark. Formally, the trend remains bullish; however, from a historical perspective, it has already lasted nearly 1000 days, which leaves little room for further growth. In the event of a downward correction, gold could target the support level in the 3200-3300 range.
Long-term trend: Up
Resistance level: 3800
Support level: 3200-3300
Gold analysis So Gold is in a consolidation in a form of a symmetrical triangle.
I think even though the trend overall is bullish, but we still in a consolodation, and likely the price visits the lower trendline.
other than that, price will break out above the upper trendline, and then we flip bullish then.
Dont go with size on that bearish trade as i could be very very wrong in my analysis.
Gold Rally May Soon Collapse Into a BustGold has reached its most overbought level on a monthly basis in 45 years. Not only that, but it is also overbought on a daily and weekly basis, a feat that is not only rare but troubling.
The RSI on gold is now well above 70 on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. It is not merely that gold’s RSI is above 70 – it has reached a staggering 89.6 on the monthly chart, a level not seen since January 1980, when it peaked at 91.2 and closed that month at $681.50. It then took more than 27 years for gold to register a new monthly closing high in September 2007.
Currently, the weekly chart exhibits similarly overbought conditions, with an RSI reading of 76, while trading above its upper Bollinger band for what appears to be four consecutive weeks. In addition, the %b – which measures how far above the upper Bollinger band the price of gold is – stands at 1.12, indicating that it is historically quite stretched.
The daily chart suggests there may be a little further for gold to rally, but not much, with $3,820 marking the upper end of the trading range. With the RSI currently at 78, sustaining such a rally will be challenging.
While there is precedent for gold to rally further from similarly overbought levels, as seen in the early and mid-1970s, today’s inflation picture is not quite the same. Historically, gold has tended to follow boom-and-bust cycles on a recurring basis over the past 50 years, and there is a good chance that this current move higher will end in a similar fashion.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management.
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.
No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.
Bottom Buying in GoldIn my recent analysis of Gold Futures, I spotted a classic bottom-buying opportunity on the hourly chart.
Gold was consolidating and testing support around the 50 EMA. Despite a flagpole pattern failure, I trusted the support level and managed my risk carefully. With a tight stop loss, I entered the trade right near the bottom retracement zone.
The result was impressive. Within just 2–3 hours, the trade delivered a strong profit, validating my setup and conviction.
At present, I am trailing my position with proper stop losses, ensuring that I capture as much of the ongoing trend as possible while protecting my gains. I’ll continue to maintain the trail as long as momentum stays active.
This setup reaffirms the value of sticking to disciplined technical analysis and executing with conviction, even when patterns appear to fail.
Gold Futures – Pullback Into H4 Supply Before Drop to Demand?Price sold off strongly from 3812 resistance and is now correcting higher. On the H4, I see a bearish supply zone between 3791.4–3769.9, which aligns with prior POC acceptance around 3790. If price pulls back into this area and fails, I expect continuation lower into the H4 demand zone at 3746.3–3735.2, which also lines up with Daily Low (DL) and Weekly High (WH) liquidity markers.
Levels to Watch:
Bearish H4 Supply: 3791.4–3769.9
Bullish H4 Demand: 3746.3–3735.2
Invalidation: Break & hold above 3795 could target 3812 liquidity.
Targets: First 3746.3, extended 3735.2.
Bias: Bearish pullback scenario into supply → downside continuation.
Gold Futures (GC) – “Top Is In” Schematic ReviewExecutive Snapshot 🧭
Primary stance: Bearish swing/top-in thesis (Wyckoff Distribution complete via UTAD).
Bias strength: High, while price remains below 3,825–3,860 and fails to accept above.
Game plan: Fade strength into supply; look for Phase D → E breakdown confirmation → target 3,534/3,509 → 3,209 → 3,123 then extended 2,970–2,795 if momentum accelerates.
Multi-Framework Confluence:
A) Wyckoff (your schematic) ♟️
Phases:
A/B: BC/ST established range highs; AR/SOW tagged mid/low of range.
C: UT → UTAD (new high on diminishing relative spread & mixed volume).
D (now): Throwback rallies holding beneath UTAD; look for LPSY near 3,760–3,825; failure → Phase E markdown.
Validation: Lower highs after the UTAD and repeated rejections of the supply shelf 3,760–3,825.
Confirmation trigger: Break and accept below ICE/Creek = 3,534–3,509 (your pink band) → distribution confirmed.
Macro Frame 🌐
Gold’s cyclical up-leg is extended; near-term macro supports a pause/reversion:
Real yields/beta & USD shocks can catalyze a value-seeking dip.
COMEX time-and-price run suggests heat above without equivalent build in value → mean-revert first, trend later.
Invalidation & Risk:
Hard invalidation (swing): Weekly close > 3,860 and acceptance above for 2–3 sessions (no swift rejection).
Soft invalidation (tactical): Daily close back inside 3,760–3,825 after a breakdown → step aside, wait for next LPSY.
Position/Risk Template:
Initial risk: above 3,825 (or 3,860 for wider swing).
Size: start ½–⅔ unit at first tag/reject; complete size on breakdown retest of 3,534–3,509.
Trailing: swing stop > last LPSY high once 3,534 is lost.
Momentum & Internals (Quick Read) ⚙️
RSI/ultimate RSI (your panels): persistent bearish divergence into UTAD zone.
MACD: high, curling; ripe for signal cross on daily if price slips under 3,600s → 3,534.
Squeeze/Momentum: elevated; release down would align with the distribution thesis.
Execution Checklist ✅
Pre-break:
Fade 3,760–3,825 on rejection candles/footprint absorption.
Track delta & volume—no expansion = stronger distribution read.
Break event:
Daily close < 3,534 → reduce discretion, execute plan; seek retest → LPSY to add.
Manage:
Cover +30–50 handles into 3,209–3,180; roll runner.
Data to watch: USD DXY spikes, GLD OI/put skew, dealer GEX flips around GLD 300.
One-Page Risk Map 🗺️
Bearish while: < 3,825–3,860.
Confirmation: < 3,534–3,509 (close/accept).
Targets: 3,209 → 3,123 → 2,970 → 2,795 → 2,541.
Stop/Invalid: > 3,860 w/ acceptance.
Marked UTAD and supply stack 3,760–3,825 present a clean risk-defined top. Until the market accepts above 3,860, the probabilistic path favors Phase E markdown back toward 3,2xx value and possibly the 2,9xx–2,795 extension if momentum breaks loose.
Gold Buy ModelAs we all know, gold has been trending up for quite some time now. With Fed Chair Roman Powell speaking about rate cuts in the future, this means that Gold is going to want to continue trending up.
Lower interest rates can also weaken the U.S. dollar, making gold cheaper for foreign buyers and increasing demand.
I do think gold will continue to trend higher, but I'd love to see a sweep of Asia session lows, potentially testing PDL before this happens. My area of interest is right around $3780 to $3775.
I Should Have Noticed This Pattern (Episode 1)
Just today I zoomed out on my GS chart and noticed for the first time this almost perfect triangle pattern. How did I completely miss this?
-There are many times in my short trading career that I have come across things I should have noticed. Whether it's chart patterns, correlation, volume spikes, or indicators indicating; I kick myself for my neglect!
-Now the least I can do is point out those mistakes and share them with you as I see them, in the hopes that more get noticed in the future.
-This is an example of a symmetrical triangle which is considered the most common type of triangle pattern. Despite the name, the triangle does not have to be symmetrical and like all patterns is evaluated in the approximate. Some imagination is required. Most triangles are a representation of consolidation before continuation, but can sometimes represent a top or bottom before reversal. When price does break out of a triangle, volume should spike and this example clearly shows that. This example also shows a false breakout which would have been discovered when closing for the day back "inside" the pattern. Also like all patterns, the larger the time interval, the more important the pattern. Daily and longer are preferred.
-Again this is what I see after the fact and far too late. I would not enter this trade now. Please let me know if I missed something or if you were able to trade this in real time and there was details that I left out. Also, did anyone make money on noticing this pattern? Am I mistaken in any way?