Recount wave Now gold bias for long because its go to fibo extension daily , so this week can focus long , gold now will be expensive 😅
XAUTRY1! trade ideas
Gold Futures — Extended After Bullish Surge, Watching 4 PullbackYesterday’s move pushed gold aggressively higher with almost no retrace, leaving a string of unfilled imbalances below. Price is now pressing into 3780 levels, just shy of the psychological 3800 handle.
Key Scenarios:
Bullish Continuation: If Asia/London hold above 3767, a squeeze into 3800–3810 is possible before any meaningful pullback.
Retracement Setup: A break under 3767 could trigger a retrace into 3743 → 3719 zone, aligning with prior resistance turned support.
Bigger Picture: Major 4H FVG remains untested below (around 3650–3660), which could act as a downside magnet later in the week.
Patience is key after such a vertical move — waiting to see if Tuesday gives us either continuation or that first retrace.
Silver To The Mooooon!!Several factors have come together to make silver especially attractive.
Expectations of Fed Rate Cuts / Lower Real Yields
Markets are increasingly pricing in Federal Reserve rate cuts, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding non‐yielding assets like silver.
Real yields (yields adjusted for inflation) have been weak or falling, making silver more appealing.
Weak U.S. Dollar
When the USD weakens, commodities priced in dollars become cheaper for holders of other currencies, boosting demand.
Safe-Haven / Inflation Hedge Demand
Geopolitical risks, economic uncertainty, and fears of inflation make precious metals attractive. Silver benefits both as an industrial metal and a hedge to some degree.
The gold-to-silver ratio is unusually high, which many see as signalling that silver is “cheap” relative to gold, suggesting more upside potential.
Gold Futures – Hedge Within a Larger Bullish Wave (Weekly)🟡 Gold Futures – Hedge Within a Larger Bullish Wave (Weekly)
Zooming out to the weekly timeframe, gold has extended aggressively into the 2.618 Fib extension (~3,778), a level that historically marks exhaustion points in strong trends. Volume profile also shows a lack of heavy participation above, meaning this is an overextended zone that can invite corrections.
That said, the structural trend remains firmly bullish. Gold has been in a secular uptrend, and each consolidation/throwback over the past decade has set up for higher highs. From a macro perspective, dips remain buying opportunities — but risk management matters when price stretches this far, this fast.
🔍 Long-Term Context
Gold has already cleared the 1.618 extension (~2,734) and ran nearly straight into the 2.618 (~3,778) without meaningful retrace.
Volume profile shows thin participation between ~3,200 and 3,600 — fast moves can cut both ways here.
Stronger long-term support sits around 3,390 (high-volume node) and further down at ~2,730 and ~2,090 (Fib levels + prior consolidation zones).
⚖️ Strategy Update
Long-term bias: Bullish. Macro backdrop (Fed easing cycle, fiscal imbalances, central bank buying) favors higher gold over time.
Short-term hedge: Valid. With price testing a 2.618 Fib extension, we expect corrective pullbacks before continuation. A hedge here reduces risk of giving back profits without abandoning the larger uptrend.
Plan: Maintain hedge positioning near 3,758–3,771 (as outlined in the short-term plan). If pullback develops, scale out at key supports (3,701 → 3,587 → 3,510). If price breaks and sustains above 3,790, hedge is invalid and we reset for long continuation.
📊 Perspective:
The weekly chart confirms why a hedge here makes sense — gold has run into a historically significant Fib extension with thin volume structure above. This doesn’t negate the long-term bull trend, but it increases the probability of a corrective throwback. Protecting gains with a short hedge while respecting the bullish macro bias keeps us balanced.
Gold Futures Hedge Update🟡 Gold Futures Hedge Update
Our previous short setup reached the first take profit, confirming that hedging into overextension made sense. Long-term bias on gold remains bullish, but short-term conditions still look stretched, and we’re preparing for another protective hedge.
This is not a bearish reversal call — the goal is to lock in gains and protect profits as gold presses into heavy resistance.
📍 Trade Setup (Short Hedge)
Entry (Short): 3,750 (Fib 1.618 extension + HVN resistance)
Stop Loss (SL): 3,780 (above channel top + HVN cluster)
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 3,700 – 3,685 (volume node / mid-channel support)
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 3,587 (next HVN + structural support)
Take Profit 3 (Stretch): 3,510 – 3,500 (Fib retrace + channel low)
⚖️ Rationale
Gold has been overextended on the short-term chart, pressing into Fib and channel resistance with signs of stalling.
Volume profile highlights key support/resistance nodes that align with Fib levels.
Taking partial profits on the way down while keeping risk tight ensures the hedge protects without overcommitting against the dominant bullish trend.
📊 Plan: Scale into shorts near resistance with defined risk, peel off at TP1 and TP2, leave a runner for deeper correction potential. If gold breaks and holds above 3,790, hedge is invalidated and focus shifts back to long setups.
elliot wave counting GC Hit my fibo extension and now gold doing ending diagonal for wave 3 major of 5, so this week can short gold for wave 4 major
Tracking Stagflation with this Ratio - Crude, Copper, Gold RatioHow to Spot Stagflation?
One way is by looking at the copper-to-gold ratio and the crude oil-to-gold ratio.
• Gold reflects real money and investor confidence.
• Copper tracks recession.
• Crude oil represents inflation pressures.
When real money is under threat, the economy slows, and inflation rises at the same time, we have stagflation. This is the worst-case scenario for any economy. Fortunately, we are not experiencing it yet, though the risk remains.
What could trigger it?
Copper Oil Futures & Options
Ticker: HG
Minimum fluctuation:
0.0005 per pound = $12.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Gold Futures — New Week Opens Strong After Friday RallyGold closed last week bullish after sweeping liquidity below the weekly low and snapping higher into resistance. As we open into Asian session Monday, price is testing the daily high (3719).
Key Scenarios This Week:
Bullish: If buyers hold above 3719, continuation toward 3743 (weekly fair value gap high) and potentially 3767 (ATH marker) could play out.
Bearish: A failure to hold above 3719 opens the door for retracement back toward 3700 → 3685 zone (last week’s supply area).
Opening conditions look bullish, but patience is key. Waiting to see if Asia sets the tone for continuation or if NY later in the week pulls it back.
Gold 4000 GLD 361 by end of 2025Projection based on a comment made by Jeff Gundlach in his post-Fed interest rate cut interview with CNBC.
"I think almost certainly gold will close above 4000 before the end of this year"
MGCZ2025 WEEK 39 SEPT 21STLooking for MON, TUE, WED to be the low of the week, trading into or slightly below 3H BISI. Price should run energetically to break $3744.
Look for buying opportunities once price has broken below $3715. Note that price can run lower into the BOB (Bullish OB) before turning around.
IF- price closes below the 3H OB at $3706. Hold to see if price turn in the lower 3H SIBI instead. You could be wrong in your analysis and price may be trying to run lower.
NOTE we are entering MC-NM. This is typically a retracement which should be to the up side given market structure.
NOTE: you are looking to hold for a 20 point run based on the fib. The best BUYs will be formed below $3723
CALENDAR EVENT
MON
- 12PM - FOMC SPEAKER
TUES
- 9:45AM - PMI (HIGH)
- 12:35AM - POWELL SPEAKS (HIGH)
WED
- 10AM - NEW HOMES SALES
THUR
- 8:30AM - FINAL GDP (HIGH)
- 10AM - EXISTING HOME SALES
FRIDAY
- 8:30AM - CORE PCE INDEX (HIGH)
Final Note
- remember to keep track of midnight/8:30 opening prices. Always refer back to the 1H and 3H
to confirm what side of the market you should be on.
- Alway look to buy in a discount range and sell in a premium range.
Risk- Only risk 150- 200 per trade on initial entry. you can add lots once you confirm trade is good. Refer back to higher TF before adding lots.
Max two trades per session.
TIME FOR RISKY ASSETS TO MOVE UP! after running for 2-3 years without a severe 30% pull back, this could play out for 2026 pt
if inflation kept low, fed interest rate cut 25 points on oct2025, war peace and regional calm? we can see 30% decline for gold YES. but as always:
DYOR
happy trading and happy profit taking
Gold: Major New Option Portfolios Signal Strong Moves AheadFriday’s CME report showed a surge in large option blocks in gold — two of them stand out.
🔹 1. "Long Condor" on December Futures (GCZ24)
This is the most significant structure added:
Targets a move below $3,620 or above $3,780
In other words: a breakout is expected, not consolidation
📌 Key point:
A "Long Condor" profits from volatility, not direction.
It wins if price moves sharply — up OR down — but loses if it stays flat.
💡 My note:
When I first encountered delta-neutral strategies like this as a Forex trader — my brain exploded.
No directional bias… yet clearly positioned for action?
That was the moment I realized: options are a different game.
🔹 2. Bull Call Spread (Oct Series): $3800–$3850
Another key play:
A classic bullish call spread at 3800/3850
Target: upside beyond current levels
But here’s the difference:
Unlike the "Long Condor", this one needs a clear upward move — and soon. Within a few days.
This isn’t about volatility.
It’s a directional bet that gold will rise.
🧠 Bottom Line:
One portfolio says: "Breakout coming — no matter which way."
Another says: "Gold goes up — and soon."
Are they aligned?
Contradictory?
Or could both win?
Trade smarter, not harder! Looking to boost your profits with valuable market insights and data-driven entry points? Join us or keep moving!
Liquidity Sell ModelTrade example from last week.
I wanted to show how the market cycles when it comes to liquidity. Usually price will create a decent high and low during the Asia session (Tokyo and Sydney). Once NY session opens, a sweep either above or below Asia session will occur before the true move occurs.
In this case, price swept above Asia session highs before dropping into SSL.
GC - GOLD 9/19Monthly timeframe Pink
Weekly = Grey
Daily = Red
4hr = Orange
1hr = Yellow
15min = Blue
5min = Green
4 candles, 6 Levels, & MarketMeta
A Range = 2 or more candles in the same direction, either Accumulation ranges, Distribution ranges or Single candles which are ranges on lower timeframes.
the 4 candles are:
2 from the Distribution Range - BackSide (BS) which is the first distribution candle in the range. It has an expectation to have a strong influence on price when price is above it. If price is below the BS level, price enters the distribution range and the BackSide level acts as resistance to keep price down in a distribution trend.
The FrontSide candle (FS) is the last distribution candle is the range. the bottom side wick is the swingLow level and distribution range boundary. A FrontSide candle has an expectation to create an accumulation trend and keep price above the swingLow.
The other 2 candles are in the accumulation range and the exact opposite of the BS & FS level so they are labeled Inverse BackSide (Inv.BS) & Inverse FrontSide (Inv.FS)
Gold Futures — Bearish Momentum Building After Fed CutGold continues to show weakness after the Fed’s 25bps rate cut. Price rejected the 1H FVG overhead and is pressing down toward yesterday’s low (3660).
Key Scenarios:
Bearish Case (favored): If we break and close below yesterday’s low (D-L 3660), sellers likely push toward the weekly low (WL ~3627). That move would clean up the liquidity pool and fill the H-TF imbalance.
Bullish Case: Only if buyers defend the daily low and reclaim the 1H FVG with strength could we see price revisit 3710 (daily high).
Momentum remains on the downside, with ADX > 25 confirming trend conditions. Watching closely for the daily low sweep and possible continuation.
Gold setup indicates a fall ahead – Stay alert, traders!This is the 15-minute chart of GOLD1!
Gold is moving in a well-defined parallel channel and currently respecting the LOP resistance zone at 109750–109850.
The channel’s lower boundary near 108650 may act as short-term support.
If Gold breaks down below this support, the projected downside target is near 107750.
In case of range-bound movement, the ideal sell zone remains at the LOP (109750–109850).
If this resistance level sustains, Gold may fall and test the lower targets.
Additionally, a Head & Shoulders pattern has formed within the channel, with its downside target aligning with the channel projection.
Thank you.
Anticipation of GC / Gold over the next couple of weeks.For those who might have interest in a Elliott reading on gold:
In this post, everytime I write gold, I mean GC. This is just for info, since GC and gold doesn't have same prices, but the movement is very much the same.
If you follow along on a gold spot or similar, just translate the levels to there.
The picture is very messy for those who doesn't know what the lines and numbers are for, but please follow along.
I have a strong believe that with current PA the 3rd (white iii) wave is over, and now we will look for price to search for the bottom of the blue channel.
The blue channel is an acceleration channel, which is used to see if 4th (white iv) wave is under way. When the 4th (white iv) has developed some more, we are able to put another channel on, called the deceleration channel. This we will use to spot the end of the 4th (white iv).
Until now, it seems gold is respect the white 161 fib level, which is a very typical 3rd wave level to end.
The reason I started this post, was to tell you about my thoughts on when the 4th (white iv) is going to end, or at least how long it's going to be.
A typical scenario is that wave 4 is longer in duration than wave 2. For ease of spotting, I have put up these purple boxes, so now we do not anticipate gold to end the correction, before it has exited the purple box to the right.
The depth of wave 4 (white iv): I believe we are going to see prices in the level between 3600 and 3550 (the green box).
Reasons for the levels of the green box: when prices wave 2 (white ii) goes beyound the 61.8 fib level (in this case below), we tend to see a retracement between 38% and 50% in the 4th (white iv). And this is the area the green box indicates.
Timewise it is places outside of the previously mentioned purple box.
4th wave also tends to respect the base channel . Either the upper line or the middle line.
The lower line of the blue channel and the middle of the grey channel ( base channel ), the green box, outside of the purple box is all seeming to fall in the same place. So I like all the confluences falling together here, so that's why I feel pretty certain that, that is where the white iv wave is likely to end.
Timewise it'll be about 1st of october.
The white v wave i have also done a forecast on that fits if wave white iv retrace to the green box.
Normally the 5th wave is going to end in the area between 38% and 61% of the wave 1 and 3. This level is indicated with the blue fib.
Usually wave 5 is equal to wave 3. But can be extended if wave three isn't. Have indicated the 100% fib of white i wave with the cyan fib.
This 100% level falls between the blue fib, right around the yellow line I have talked a lot about before in previous post. So I also have a lot of confluences for price to go here in the white v wave.
If the white v is extended it could go to the blue 100% level, which also is confluenced with that cyan upgoing line. This is a pitchfork drawn from previous waves.
let's see where gold will take us.
Gold — Fed Cut Fade: Overextended, Eyeing a ThrowbackGold — Fed Cut Fade: Overextended, Eyeing a Throwback 🎯
Gold ripped higher into the FOMC, but the 25 bp cut was fully priced in. Post-decision, we saw the classic whipsaw — down → up → slow fade into the close. With the dollar and real yields catching a bid, the metal looks due for digestion before the next leg.
Technicals (4h)
Overextended run: Vertical leg higher with no real basing.
Supply zone: Sellers showed up around 3.71–3.75k.
Volume magnet: Confluence of the broken trendline + HVN sits down at ~3.41k.
Thin profile: Gap between 3.52 → 3.41k leaves room for a fast move lower if momentum flips.
Trade Idea
Short bias: Fading the 3.71–3.74k zone or on breakdown acceptance below 3.69k.
Stop: Above 3.76k (invalidation).
Target: 3.41k (major HVN + retest zone).
Macro Context
The Fed’s move matches expectations. With positioning stretched and “buy the rumor / sell the news” in play, near-term risk is for a pullback. Medium term, the trend stays bullish if easing continues and real yields drift lower.
Not financial advice — just sharing the setup I’m watching.
#Gold #GC1 #Futures #ShortSetup #VolumeProfile #FOMC
Fed Cuts Rates — Gold Reacts, Watching for Follow-Through or ReThe Fed has just delivered a 25 bps rate cut, and there’s a mixed tone in the after-move: inflation still high, jobs softening, and the dot-plot shows more cuts are expected — but with divided opinions.
On the chart, Gold spilled out of consolidation post-Fed, touched key support, and is now pressing back toward a 4H FVG (supply zone).
Scenarios:
Upside: If price pushes up toward the 4H FVG, gets rejected cleanly → potential short entry.
Downside: If that rejection holds, or support breaks, expect slide toward high timeframe FVG region in 3600s.
Trade with eyes open — volatility likely stays high. Support & resistance zones are critical here.
Gold Bears Trapped at POC - Bulls Load for $3,850 BreakoutThe Market Participant Battle:
Bears attempted to push Gold below the Value Area at point 2 but were decisively trapped and beaten by major institutional buyers. The rejection at the POC (Point of Control) with strong bullish divergences across multiple momentum indicators signals that bulls have regained control. Price is expected to return to test the $3,850 resistance after this bear trap consolidation, with institutional buyers defending the value area high at $3,720.
Confluences:
Confluence 1: Value Area Rejection & POC Defense
The chart shows a textbook rejection at the Value Area High (point 2), with price piercing below but immediately recovering above both the POC and VAH. This is a classic bear trap pattern where aggressive sellers were absorbed by institutional buyers. The anchored VWAP from point 1 shows the 1st standard deviation aligning perfectly with the VAH, creating a powerful confluence of support that trapped late bears and sparked the reversal.
Confluence 2: Quad Bullish Divergence
All four momentum indicators (OBV, RSI, MFI, CDV) made higher lows while price made a lower low at point 2. This is an extremely rare quad divergence setup that historically precedes powerful moves higher. The OBV shows accumulation never stopped, RSI held oversold bounces, MFI indicates money never left, and CDV confirms institutional buying throughout the dip.
Confluence 3: FOMC Rate Cut Catalyst
The Fed just cut rates by 25bps today (September 17) with Governor Miran dissenting for larger cuts. The dot plot suggests two more cuts coming in 2025. Gold historically performs strongly during rate cutting cycles, with average gains of 14% in the year following initial cuts when markets are near highs.
Web Research Findings:
- Technical Analysis: Gold holding above $3,670 with immediate resistance at $3,700-3,720, major resistance at $3,850
- Recent News/Earnings: Fed cut rates 25bps today, markets pricing 93% chance of continued cuts through year-end
- Analyst Sentiment: Goldman Sachs targets $3,700+ for 2025, World Gold Council sees 0-5% upside in H2
- Data Releases & Economic Calendar: CPI at 2.9% (above 2% target), unemployment rising, suggesting stagflationary environment
- Interest Rate Impact: Real rates turning negative as inflation exceeds rate cuts - historically bullish for gold
Layman's Summary:
The Fed just started cutting interest rates today while inflation is still high (2.9%), creating the perfect storm for gold. When the Fed cuts rates but inflation stays elevated, gold becomes the go-to asset because cash loses value. Big banks are already positioned for this - central banks bought record amounts of gold in 2025. The technical setup shows major buyers stepped in exactly where they should (at the value area), creating a bear trap that should spring gold higher toward $3,850.
Machine Derived Information:
- Image 1: Shows numbered reference points 1-4 with clear bear trap at point 2, target at $3,856 - Significance: Classic V-reversal at value area with institutional footprints - AGREES ✔
- Image 2: Displays quad divergence across OBV/RSI/MFI/CDV indicators - Significance: Extremely bullish momentum divergence rarely seen, confirms accumulation - AGREES ✔
Actionable Machine Summary:
The AI analysis confirms a textbook bear trap setup at a critical technical level (Value Area/POC) combined with an ultra-rare quad divergence across all momentum indicators. The timing with today's FOMC rate cut creates a fundamental catalyst to trigger the technical spring-load. Stop placement is clear below point 2 at $3,706, with initial target at VAH retest ($3,720) before continuation to $3,850+.
Conclusion:
Trade Prediction: SUCCESS
Confidence: High
This setup combines the perfect storm of technical and fundamental factors. Bears were trapped attempting to break value area support just as the Fed initiated its rate cutting cycle. The quad divergence is exceptionally rare and historically precedes 5-10% moves. With inflation still elevated at 2.9% and rates being cut, gold's traditional role as an inflation hedge is activated. Risk/Reward is excellent with tight stop below $3,706 and targets at $3,850+, offering 4:1 R/R.
GOLD : SELL TD COMBO 13 posted yesterday 16th SeptemberThe famous Tom DeMark indicator posted a 13 Countdown on Tuesday 16th September, meaning that Gold has entered a selling area.
Gold Range Took a bit of time but they did bring Gold prices back into the range. I cant say how the Gold market will react for the Fed but there is potential for Gold to range at these price for a bit based on 9 Sept expressing sellers present. I think gold will resume out of the range but possibly not until the end of the month.
#GoldRange
#goldtrading
