DX.F trade ideas
US Dollar Index: Bullish! Buy The Dip!Expecting price to retrace into the +FVGs below. Look on the 1H for a CISD when price comes into contact with either of the two poi's. Once a directional change is confirmed, buy it.
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DXY - FROM THE WEEKLY CHART TO THE H4 CHART - WHAT TO EXPECTThe DXY Index has been going up since Jerome Powell speech after FOMC on 17 September 2025 and has continued its bullish trend since then, looking at the weekly chart this may be headind to an important resistance in the 101.395 area if the index succesfully breaks the 100.040 level of resistance, data will dictate its next move
I expect the index to test the 97.700 - 97.500 level of support early in the week and raise gradually to 100.040
Once there we have the following options:
- Poor usd data = selloff of the index on the way to the previous lows
- Strong usd data = break of the 100.040 level of resistance and the index reaching the weekly resistance 101.395
BE REACTIVE AND NOT PREDICTIVE
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) OutlookThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is currently in a major corrective structure after topping out in 2022. On the monthly chart, price action suggests we are in the final stages of a Wave II correction, with a potential bottom forming around key Fibonacci retracement levels.
The correction appears to be forming a WXY/ABC structure, with wave c in progress.
Price is currently within the 0.618 – 0.786 retracement zone of the prior impulse.
The long term ascending channel from 2008 lows remains intact, with support aligning around this Fib cluster.
A bullish reaction from this zone could trigger the beginning of Wave III, which historically is strong and impulsive.
Invalidation: Sustained break below 87.00 would weaken the bullish count
Targets:
1 = 132.91
2 = 141.88
If this count holds, DXY could be setting up for a multi-year bullish cycle, suggesting that the dollar may regain strength in the coming years, impacting major USD pairs across the board.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Markets are dynamic and unpredictable.
DXY - KEY LEVELS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK Last week the DXY tested the 97.500 level exactly as I forecasted over the week-end and on Thursday we saw a good breakout that pushed the price to the 98.150 area.
On Friday NFP was cancelled because of government shutdown so we didn't see a lot of volume however we had a re-test of the previous day breakout and the price closing above 97.700.
BULLISH VIEW:
Next week an important support to monitor wil be 97.513, a test of it could see the price going up to the 98.600 / 99.600 area.
BEARISH VIEW:
A break of the 97.513 with momentum could see the DXY re-testing 97.513 and the price lowering to 96.800 starting a long term selloff to the 95.000/92.000 long term support.
Please like / comment / share this idea - I will certainly follow up through the week.
Dollar Faces Major Golden Ratio CorrectionRecent GDP data puts the dollar into uptrend(rise from 3.3% to 3.8% ) reaching around 98.7 and hit a Major Fibonacci 0.618 Correction and Multi-month highs.
The Dollar can be expected to correct at the 0.5 ratio (around 97 ) of the recent trend along with the trendline. If the dollar sentiment is to follow the rate cuts, we will see the dollar to the downside and stocks, crypto and commodities to the upside.
The Fed has recently announce a possibility of two more rate cuts happening this year Q4 of 2025. The cut is stays at 25 bps rather than the expected 50 bps . Some investors say it is not enough to bring positivity to the market.
Traders, what are your thoughts?
DXY DOLLAR INDEX What is the DXY?
The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is a weighted index that measures the value of the United States dollar (USD) relative to a basket of six major foreign currencies: the euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), British pound (GBP), Canadian dollar (CAD), Swedish krona (SEK), and Swiss franc (CHF). The euro has the largest weight in the index, around 57.6%, making it the most influential currency in the DXY.
The DXY provides a broad gauge of the USD’s international value and is frequently used by traders and analysts to assess dollar strength.
Correlation of DXY with US10Y (U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield)
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) and the DXY often have a positive correlation.
Higher US10Y usually signals stronger U.S. economic growth and/or expectations of higher Federal Reserve interest rates, making U.S. Treasury securities more attractive to investors. This leads to increased demand for USD, causing the DXY to strengthen.
Rising yields increase the return on dollar-denominated assets, attracting capital inflows and boosting the dollar’s value relative to other currencies.
Conversely, when US10Y falls, it often indicates weaker economic sentiment or looser monetary policy, which tends to weaken the dollar and lower the DXY.
Strength of the U.S. Dollar and DXY Relationship
The DXY directly reflects the strength or weakness of the U.S. dollar in the global forex market.
A rising DXY means the USD is strengthening against other major currencies, indicating increased purchasing power and greater global dollar demand.
A falling DXY implies the USD is weakening, reducing its relative value versus other currencies.
The DXY is impacted by the interest rate differentials, economic growth expectations, geopolitical events, and risk sentiment affecting capital flows in and out of the U.S.
The DXY is a key barometer for the dollar’s relative strength, and its movement often aligns with changes in US10Y due to the economic and yield attractiveness
IF THE INDEX CORRECTS IN THIS WEEKLY CANDLE EXPECT A LONG POSITION .
WATCH EURUSD,AUDUSD,GBPUSD,USDJPY.
#DXY #US10Y
DXY Daily Outlook: Bearish Pressure BuildsLooking at the DXY (US Dollar Index) chart as of September 30, 2025, the long-term structure is clearly in a descending wedge pattern, showing sustained weakness since the sharp rejection from the 100.23 level earlier this year. Price action has been consistently making lower highs and lower lows, respecting the upper and lower trendline resistance and support. Currently, DXY is trading around 97.80, slightly above the mid-support zone, but momentum suggests that bears remain in control.
The chart also highlights multiple Change of Character (ChoCH) and Break of Structure (BOS) points, showing failed attempts by bulls to reverse the trend. Each rally has been capped below descending resistance, most recently around the 98–99 zone, which is now acting as a supply area. The ongoing compression in price suggests a possible breakout direction soon.
From a Fibonacci perspective, the major retracement levels drawn from the swing high (100.23) to the swing low (96.18) give clear downside targets. If the wedge breaks bearish, first support lies near 96.18, followed by Fib -0.382 (94.63), then deeper at -0.618 (93.67). A strong bearish continuation could extend toward the -1.618 projection (89.62), which aligns with long-term demand.
On the other side, if bulls manage to reclaim 98.50–99.00 with strong volume, it could trigger a corrective leg toward 100.23 (previous high and wedge resistance). However, given repeated rejections, this remains the less likely scenario unless macro fundamentals (such as Fed policy or global risk sentiment) strongly shift in favor of the dollar.
The RSI/Momentum structure would likely be neutral-to-bearish given the flat but declining structure. The price remains below the major moving averages (200-day SMA/EMA), adding weight to the bearish bias.
Momentum / indicators
Momentum on the daily appears neutral-to-bearish (rallies are weaker and get rejected).
RSI on daily (if checked) is likely flat-to-slightly below neutral, not showing strong bullish divergence — therefore rallies are corrective.
Price is trading under the major moving averages on the daily (200MA acts as dynamic resistance), reinforcing the bearish bias unless reclaimed decisively.
Key daily levels
Immediate resistance / supply: 98.00 – 99.00 (daily rejection zone).
Invalidation for bearish view (daily close basis): daily close above 100.23 / decisive break and hold above 100.5–101 would flip bias.
Near-term support: 96.18 (first target / pivot).
Secondary targets if 96.18 breaks: 94.63, 93.67 then 89.62 as extended target on a strong bearish continuation.
Price-action scenarios
Bearish continuation (favored): Price respects the upper descending trendline, forms a daily rejection or bearish engulfing at ~98.0–99.0 → short with first target at 96.18, partial take at 94.63 if momentum continues.
Neutral / consolidation: Price oscillates 97–98.5, chopping in wedge — wait for a daily close below 96.60 or above 99.50 before taking directional trade.
Bullish breakout (less likely): Daily close above 100.23 with follow-through and volume would signal trend change toward 102+ — invalidate shorts and look for long setups only after retest.
In Summary
Trend: Bearish within a descending wedge.
Resistance: 98.50 → 99.00 → 100.23.
Support: 96.18 → 94.63 → 93.67 → 89.62.
Long-term bias: As long as 99–100 zone is not broken decisively, DXY is likely to head lower toward 94–90 levels in coming months.
Risk factor: Only a macro-driven breakout above 100.23 would invalidate the bearish outlook and shift momentum toward 102+.
One-line Conclusion
Daily bias = bearish while price stays under the 98–100 supply zone; preferred approach is to short on daily rejections or after a break+retest of 96.18, with extended targets at 94.6 → 93.7 → 89.6, and clear invalidation only on a daily close above ~100.23.
Note
Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
DXY – 2H Chart SetupThe Dollar Index is showing signs of strength after bouncing from the 97.20–97.30 demand zone and reclaiming short-term structure. Price is currently consolidating around 97.55, and holding above this support keeps the outlook bullish.
📈 Bullish Bias:
Above 97.50 support, price is likely to push higher.
Next upside targets are 97.80, then 98.20 – 98.40 key resistance zone.
Retests of the 97.50–97.40 area could provide buy opportunities before the next leg up.
DXY Is it finally time for the Dollar to shine?The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) has been trading within a Channel Up since the March 2008 bottom during the U.S. Housing Crisis. This pattern has been showing incredible symmetry, having clear correction phases (red Channels) followed by bullish phases, where the price rallied to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension.
Right now the price has almost hit the bottom of this multi-year Channel Up, while at the same time making a new (2nd) bottom for the 2nd Bearish Leg of the (red) correction phase.
With the 1M RSI having already touched its 16-year Support Zone, which has provided the most optimal Buy Signals throughout this pattern, we expect the Dollar Index to start rising aggressively in the long-term, targeting at lest 120.000 on its way to the 1.618 Fib ext.
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DXY – Reversal in Motion, Correction Next?In my previous DXY analysis, I highlighted that all the bad news might already be priced in for the USD, opening the door for a reversal.
That scenario is now unfolding: after making new dips, the index bounced strongly from the 95 zone and is currently trading around 98.
After such a sharp rebound, the market looks ready for a correction. This pullback phase could provide traders with attractive opportunities – especially to position short on the major USD pairs, but at better, higher prices.
Trading Plan:
• The reversal has confirmed, but I expect a correction before continuation.
• I’m looking for retracements to offer entry levels for USD shorts via majors.
• As always, flexibility is key – monitor price action closely to time entries correctly.
The market has started to shift – now it’s about waiting for the correction to align risk and reward properly. 🚀
DXY idea We expect the Monday low to be sweeped to then continue in the HTF direction. A more HP setup will be if the sweep will be done on 4h Timeframe thru fvg higher after sweeping.
So we just wait. We let the price developing.
The setup is also valid if we continue higher directly without sweeping, but instead creating new 4h fvg higher.
Dollar Index Elliott Wave Analysis | next move ABCIn this , we break down the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) using Elliott Wave Theory. 📊
✅ 5-wave impulsive structure (1–5) has completed
✅ Market entering corrective phase (ABC)
✅ Key support: 97.40 – 97.20
✅ Resistance zone: 98.00
✅ Short-term bias: Possible corrective upside before continuation
This analysis is crucial for EUR/USD traders, as Dollar Index movement directly impacts Euro strength. Watch till the end to understand the upcoming correction and trading opportunities. 🚀
#ElliottWave #DollarIndex #ForexAnalysis #DXY #EURUSD
EUR USD and DOLLAR UPDATE
The Dollar Index (DXY) is grinding through a daily order block and has just pierced 97.882.
Technical
If we close above 97.882, that confirms a break and opens continuation toward higher liquidity zones. With tomorrow’s heavy macro news, the setup has volume behind it for a potential massive move.
Macros
U.S. government shutdown is weighing on confidence and trimming growth forecasts (each week may shave 0.1–0.2pp off GDP).
The Fed remains cornered — markets price in rate cuts, but policy credibility is under scrutiny.
Safe-haven flows are mixed: gold at records, dollar stabilizing after Supreme Court support for Fed’s Cook.
Data releases are being delayed by the shutdown, which adds uncertainty and volatility.
EURUSD
We’re short and holding.
4-month rangebound structure remains
Be aware
Dollar strength is being fueled by technical break + macro volume. EURUSD is vulnerable if DXY confirms above 97.882.
But with policy risk and shutdown uncertainty, expect volatility spikes and liquidity hunts around tomorrow’s big data.
DXY DOLLAR INDEX The DXY, or U.S. Dollar Index, measures the strength of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major currencies. It reflects how the dollar is performing against these international peers and serves as a key indicator of the dollar’s global value.
Key Points about DXY:
It tracks the U.S. dollar against the euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), British pound (GBP), Canadian dollar (CAD), Swedish krona (SEK), and Swiss franc (CHF).
The euro has the largest weighting in the index (~57.6%), making it the biggest influence on the DXY.
Movements in the DXY indicate whether the dollar is strengthening or weakening overall.
A rising DXY means the dollar is gaining value against this currency basket; a falling DXY means it is losing value.
The index impacts global trade, commodity prices (like gold and oil), and international investment flows.
Practical Use:
The DXY is widely followed by forex traders, economists, and policymakers to gauge dollar strength.
It helps assess the U.S. dollar's impact on global markets and forecast currency market trends.
#DXY #DOLLAR #US10Y
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)- Daily Timeframe Analysis 🔎 Market Structure
The Dollar Index (DXY) remains in a bearish market structure, forming consistent lower highs and lower lows. Price action is currently reacting within important Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), which often act as magnet zones for liquidity and corrective moves before resuming the primary trend.
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🟪 Higher-Timeframe Fair Value Gaps
April FVG (Purple Box): Price previously filled part of this imbalance but failed to sustain a bullish continuation. This reinforced bearish order flow.
September FVG (Blue Box): Price recently tapped into this imbalance, where sellers may look to re-enter the market.
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📉 Bearish Reaction Zones
99.000 – 100.000 (Red Box): A critical supply zone aligning with the upper boundary of the blue fair value gap. If price retests this region, strong rejection is likely.
Current price around 97.96 suggests the market is already reacting to this supply/FVG area.
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🔮 Directional Bias
The broader expectation is for the DXY to form a new lower high before resuming bearish momentum.
Two possible scenarios are highlighted:
1. Rejection directly from the current FVG zone (97.9 – 99.0) → continuation lower.
2. Slight extension into the upper supply zone (99.5 – 100.0) → liquidity grab → sharp bearish reversal.
Both paths suggest a downside move targeting 96.20 and potentially lower levels.
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📌 Summary for Traders
Bias: Bearish
Key Resistance: 99.0 – 100.0 (FVG + Supply Zone)
Key Support: 96.20 (short-term target)
Expectation: Formation of a lower high, followed by renewed selling pressure.
⚠️ Note: Always confirm with confluence (macroeconomic data, USD pairs’ correlation, and risk management rules) before entering trades.
DXY: Bulls Are Winning! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break above the current local range around 97.541 will confirm the new direction upwards with the target being the next key level of 97.640 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️