DXYThe US Dollar Index remains in a downtrend. If the support zone breaks out, I expect the bearish trend to continue. Otherwise, if the price reaches the resistance zone, it could decline again.
DX.F trade ideas
DXY Weekly Fundamental factors: The US domestic economy and the imposition of additional tariffs on consumer goods from China and Russia, as well as the confidence building of global opinion that the US will not start a war, all of these factors can help the index grow.
Technical factors: The oversold situation and the gap between the Keysin and Tensin lines increased, as a result, there is a possibility of price growth.
Will the US Dollar Run?Here we have a classic invert head and shoulders in validated if we take out the previous higher lows, but with how things are going, I don't see that happening, especially with Trump being in office you can argue all you want, but the charts don't lie
DXY at Major Support – Dollar Ready to Rebound?Today, I want to analyze the DXY index ( TVC:DXY ) for you. First, I must say that this week, US indexes can have an impact on the DXY index trend .
US indexes to be released this week:
Core PPI m/m: Tomorrow
PPI m/m: Tomorrow
Core CPI m/m: Thursday
CPI m/m: Thursday
CPI y/y: Thursday
Unemployment Claims: Thursday
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday
Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations: Friday
The DXY Index is currently moving near the Support zone($97.989-$97.834) , Yearly Support(2) , and the lower line of the descending channel .
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that the DXY index has managed to complete microwave 5 of the main wave C . The corrective structure is of the Zigzag Correction(ABC/5-3-5) type.
Also, we can see the Regular Divergence (RD+) between consecutive valleys .
I expect the DXY index to rise to at least $98.07(First Target) before the US indexes are announced.
Second Target: $98.56
Stop Loss(SL): $96.997
Note: With the DXY index rising, we can expect a correction in Gold( OANDA:XAUUSD ), Bitcoin( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ), and major Forex pairs (dollar strength).
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
U.S. Dollar Index Analyze (DXYUSD), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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Bearish drop formation?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 98.63
1st Support: 97.12
1st Resistance: 100.21
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US Dollar: Upside Price Target vs. GoldSince the historic print low of 70.69 in 2008, the US dollar has risen more than 55% to its current levels north of 110. There is no telling just how high the dollar can run amid the parabolic move upward from its 2021 low. An inverse head and shoulder pattern suggests a minimum upside price target of 117.64 or around 7% north of current levels. Fibonacci time cycles portend potential turning points this October and in November 2023. Despite all the headline inflation, the rise in the dollar is, by definition, deflationary. This suggests that given inflation remains steadily on the rise, the dollar needs to go significantly higher for its deflationary effects to manifest in the real economy. One item of particular note is the dollar-based price of gold today vs. at the dollar lows in 2008. At the all-time lows of 2008, Gold was trading in the $800-$1000 range. Contrast that to today, with a dollar that is 55% higher, and we see Gold trading at $1700. That says a lot about Gold's ability to hold its value amid a rising dollar, which is typically bearish for Gold.
WILL THE BEARS CONTINUE TO BREAK THE BULLS' BACKS ???DXY ANALYSIS (Daily Timeframe).
On the 1st of July 2025 price began printing a sideways correction, wherein minute wave (a) terminated on the 1st of August 2025. Price is currently printing a minute wave (b) before a minute wave (c) to complete minor wave 4. Minute wave (c) may not take out the 100.257 levels due to the strength of the Bears.
Looking at higher times, weekly and monthly. We see that price created a long term bullish support. We have seen the first several touches of the support line between the 28th of April 2011 and the 29th of August 2011, a total of 10 touches. We have also seen the second touches on the trendline between the 6th of January 2021 and 7nth of May 2021, about 12 touches. We are currently witnessing the third touches on the trendline. Price has already touched once the trendline on the 30th of June 2025. We are still expecting more touches and a breakthrough into the trendline. Should bulls remain weak, we will see price retest and breakaway from the trendline.
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Weekly Review: Dollar Weakness, Equities Rally, Crypto at resis'Abstract
This week’s market action painted a consistent story: the dollar fell hard, global yields softened, and equities rallied toward resistance.
Meanwhile, commodities (oil, gold, copper) strengthened, supporting a reflationary tone. The main caution flag: volatility gauges (VIX & VVIX) are rising, hinting that this risk‑on rally might not be bullet‑proof.
In crypto, BTC and ETH tested overhead resistance with weak volume — optimism is there, but conviction is not.
🚨 Special Focus: September 17th Fed Cut
The Federal Reserve’s September 17th policy decision is the most important catalyst this week. A rate cut at 2 PM EST has direct and immediate implications for all the moves outlined below:
Dollar Impact: Cuts weaken the dollar further, amplifying this week’s oversold DXY.
Yields: A cut locks in the recent fall in bond yields, making equities and gold more attractive.
Equities: Would justify current rallies but also risks looking like “policy panic”, which can spur volatility.
Commodities: Oil and Gold respond positively to looser policy → reflation + hedging.
Crypto: Historically benefits from Fed easing, but watch if BTC can actually break resistance when liquidity improves.
Interpretation: September 17th could either validate the risk‑on rally, or reverse it sharply if markets fear the Fed is cutting because economic weakness is worse than expected. Traders should mark 2 PM EST as a volatility event across Dollar, Yields, Equities, Commodities, and Crypto.
👉 Chart reference: US10Y
1. Dollar & FX: Oversold Break
DXY dropped to ~96.6, oversold on RSI (26) after repeated breaks of structure.
EURUSD surged past 1.18, entering overbought momentum.
USDJPY and USDCAD both slipped lower, aligning with dollar weakness.
USDINR weakened to 88.0 → 87.85 POI, showing INR strength matched with NIFTY breakout.
Interpretation: The dollar is oversold and losing momentum — normally bullish for risk assets. But extreme RSI means a technical bounce is possible.
👉 Chart here: DXY / EURUSD
2. Yields: Relief for Equities
US10Y at 4.03%, US30Y at 4.65% — both off highs, easing pressure on stocks.
CA10Y fell to 3.16%, tailwind for CAD and TSX.
IN10Y steady ~6.49%, supportive backdrop for India.
Interpretation: Lower yields = fresh air for equities. Bonds validating a mild risk‑on bias.
👉 Chart here: US10Y / Global Yields
3. U.S. Equities: Bulls in Control
S&P 500 at 6607, up ~2.9% this week, testing resistance.
Nasdaq 100 jumped 3.5%, now overbought on RSI.
Dow Jones up 1.7%, steady breadth support.
Interpretation: U.S. indices are riding the yield drop, but now pressing major resistance zones. Easy money for bulls is fading — the next leg requires stronger conviction.
👉 Chart here: SPX (NDX and DJI showing similar characteristic on their respective charts)
4. Global Equities: India & Canada Stand Out
NIFTY broke to 25,239, clean resistance breakout, INR strength aligned.
TSX surged 3.7% with oil, CAD, and yields falling in sync.
EuroStoxx (SX5E) consolidated flat — showing Europe still lagging.
Interpretation: The best relative strength came from India and Canada. Europe lagged, lacking energy leverage.
👉 Chart here: NIFTY / TSX
5. Commodities: Reflation Pulse
Oil climbed to $64.6, breaking resistance.
Gold at $3695 (+2.6%), safe‑haven demand still alive.
Copper to $4.70, break higher supportive for growth assets.
Interpretation: Energy and metals are supporting the equity rally. Gold rising alongside = investors hedging tail risk too.
👉 Chart here: Oil / Gold
6. Volatility: Under the Hood
VIX back up to 16.4, rising after being crushed.
VVIX surged to 104, volatility of vol is warning of unstable positioning.
IndiaVIX collapsed below 11, reflecting too much complacency locally.
Interpretation: While equities scream “bull!”, vol warns risk management is key. This is not free money.
👉 Chart here: VIX
7. Crypto: Resistance Check
BTC at 116.6k and ETH at 4.5k: both testing resistance with weak volumes.
BNB surged +5.7%, outperformed majors.
SOL held above 228–236, neutral bias.
XRP stuck near 3.0, chopping sideways.
Interpretation: Trend is up in sympathy with equities, but risk of rejection at resistance is very real. Without stronger volumes, crypto remains a “show me” trade.
👉 Chart here: BTC
💡 Big Picture Takeaway
Dollar tanking = equity and commodity rally fuel.
Yields easing = confirms risk‑on conditions.
Equities at resistance with rising vol = bulls in control, but fragility building.
Crypto is lagging in volume — it benefits from macro tailwind but not leading.
Best relative strength: NIFTY, TSX, Oil, Gold.
Fed rate cut on Sep 17 = the true decision point for trend continuation or reversal.
🎯 Conclusion — Risk‑On, But Fed Holds the Key
Markets rewarded risk this week as the dollar collapsed and yields faded. But overbought equities, crypto resistances, and rising volatility gauges warn that the move is not bullet‑proof.
The September 17th Fed cut at 2 PM is the ultimate test. If the cut is seen as proactive stimulus, the rally has room to extend. If it’s read as a panic signal, what looks like risk‑on could swiftly unwind.
✅ Bias for the coming week: constructive risk‑on until the Fed cut, then stand ready for sharp volatility.
📌 For traders: Buy dips in leaders (NIFTY, TSX, commodities) before the Fed — reduce leverage into decision. For investors: Stay allocated with hedges in vol and gold.
ICEUS:DXY FX_IDC:USDINR CMCMARKETS:USDCAD CMCMARKETS:EURUSD TVC:US10Y CBOE:SPX NASDAQ:NDX DJ:DJI NSE:NIFTY TSX:TSX TVC:SX5E NYMEX:CL1! OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:VIX CRYPTO:BTCUSD
LIQUIDITY SWEEP ON DXY BEFORE FALLINGIn this weekend dollar index analysis presentation, my thesis is sideways liquidity sweep before a daily bear flag breakout to the downside. Momentum and RSI on the higher timeframe are still to downside suggesting more selling. Price is still trapped below all our moving averages confirming our trend bias. On the weekly time frame we have a couple of inverted candles at a fib 0.618 support zone suggesting a likely reversal from a higher low but I think these inverted candles are liquidity sweeps from the 0.382 fib retrace resistance level. The daily chart has a strong shooting star which initiated selling pressure to the current trendline support level at 97.432 where our last daily candle was a doji indecision or pause.
In the coming first trading week of September, I will be watching for clear break of the trendline on the daily chart and a confirmed breakout of the fib 0.618 support zone at 97.187 for an initial target of 96.702 and final target of 96.155.
Thank you and have a great profitable trading new month. Cheers!!
DXY Next Week Trade- Patient is the keyFlip the chart again and this is what I see
Everything is on the chart
Be Patient and manage fund right
Goodluck
DXY Bearish The DXY is expected to remain bearish until it reaches the 94.00–92.00 levels, with the possibility of dropping even further below those levels
Dollar Index (DXY) – Watching Both Sides LiquidityOn the daily timeframe, we can clearly identify liquidity resting on both sides of the chart:
Relative equal lows acting as sell-side liquidity.
Low-resistance highs representing buy-side liquidity.
From my perspective, the main draw on liquidity remains the sell-side lows. However, before targeting that area, price may first reach higher to grab the buy-side liquidity. Once this liquidity is collected, I expect a potential shift in momentum and a move to the downside.
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💡Wait for the update!
Head and Shoulders Pattern on U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Bearish Overview of the Idea (as shown in the chart)
The chart illustrates a Head and Shoulders (H&S) reversal pattern forming on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). This classical technical pattern signals a potential trend reversal from bullish to bearish.
Left Shoulder: The first peak followed by a pullback.
Head: A higher peak, forming the top of the pattern.
Right Shoulder: A lower peak compared to the head, roughly equal to the left shoulder.
Neckline: A support line connecting the lows between the shoulders. Once broken, it indicates potential bearish continuation.
The chart highlights:
A breakout below the neckline.
A retest of the neckline (common in H&S setups, where old support becomes resistance).
A projected downside target aligned with the height of the head-to-neckline move.
Detailed Analysis
1. Pattern Identification
The H&S is clear: higher high (Head) flanked by two lower highs (Shoulders).
The neckline is slightly ascending, but once broken, it signals sellers stepping in.
2. Breakout Confirmation
Price broke below the neckline, confirming the bearish pattern.
The retest at ~97.62 shows rejection, strengthening the bearish outlook.
3. Bearish Projection
Technical rule: the expected downside target is approximately equal to the distance from the head to the neckline, projected downwards from the breakout point.
The chart projects a move toward 97.25, which aligns with the marked support zone.
Timing
The projection points to Monday, 15/09/25, suggesting this bearish move may unfold in the upcoming trading sessions.
Walkthrough Thought Process
Think of the market like a battle between buyers and sellers:
The buyers pushed price higher (Head), but then failed to sustain strength at the right shoulder.
When price breaks the neckline, it shows sellers are gaining control.
The retest confirms that what was once support (neckline) has now become resistance.
This setup gives traders confidence to enter a short (sell) trade, targeting the projected downside.
Trade Idea
Entry : After retest rejection around 97.62.
Target (TP) : 97.25 (support zone based on H&S projection).
Stop Loss (SL) : Above the right shoulder at 97.80 (to protect if pattern fails).
Possibility of correction Given the behavior of the index within the current support range, possible scenarios have been identified. If the index breaks through the support range, a continuation of the downward trend is likely.
First day of the week and Dollar dropWith the market opening, the Dollar Index continued its decline and reached a key support level. However, I think it could bounce from this area and move up toward the middle of the range. We’ll have to see how long this level can hold the price, since the Dollar Index has been bearish for quite some time. ✅
DXY FRGNT WEEKLY CHART ANALYSIS - DXY Q3 W38 Y25🌍FRGNT WEEKLY CHART ANALYSIS - DXY Q3 W38 Y25
📊 DXY FRGNT Breakdown + Impact on GBP, EUR, and Cross Pairs
1. Higher Timeframe Context (Weekly)
Trend: Bearish → clear lower highs & lower lows since mid-summer.
Unmitigated Imbalance (IMB): 99–101 zone above current price → acts as a long-term liquidity magnet but not yet tested.
Bias: Weakness dominates until price proves otherwise.
2. Daily Timeframe
Supply Zone: 98.200–98.500 (aligns with Daily 50 EMA).
Demand Zone: 96.800–97.000 (next liquidity draw).
Expectation: Retrace into 98.2 supply, then continuation lower toward 97.0 demand.
3. Intraday (4H)
Supply Overlap: 97.800–98.200 (Daily + 4H confluence).
Structure: Still bearish, repeated rejections from the 50 EMA.
Projection: Price likely taps 98.0 area, then drives into 97.0 demand.
Summary
Bias: Bearish.
Watch for liquidity sweep above 98.0 → rejection → sell setups toward 97.0 demand.
🌍 Impact on GBP, EUR, and Cross Pairs
GBPUSD
Effect: Dollar weakness supports bullish setups.
Expect retrace into 1.2670–1.2720 demand before price extends higher.
Targets: 1.2800–1.2850, with potential stretch toward 1.2950.
Narrative: As long as DXY stays capped under 98.2, GBPUSD should continue higher.
EURUSD
Effect: Also benefits from USD weakness, though less aggressively than GBP.
Look for longs around 1.0850–1.0880 demand.
Targets: 1.0950–1.1000.
Narrative: Similar structure to GBPUSD, but GBP is likely to outperform EUR.
EURGBP
Effect: GBP stronger than EUR → bearish bias.
Shorts valid below 0.8520, aiming for liquidity under 0.8430–0.8450.
Narrative: Even if both EUR and GBP rise against USD, GBP is leading.
Other USD Cross Pairs
USDJPY: Likely to weaken, targeting 144.50–145.00 liquidity.
USDCAD: Bearish pressure, could reach 1.3600 demand.
USDCHF: Lower toward 0.8850–0.8900 demand.
✅ Overall Picture
DXY Bearish = Favor longs on GBPUSD & EURUSD.
GBP stronger than EUR = EURGBP shorts are attractive.
JPY & CHF weak = Pairs like GBPJPY and EURJPY can push higher.
👉 In short: DXY’s weakness is the engine, driving GBPUSD and EURUSD higher. The Pound has the edge, making EURGBP a sell candidate while GBPJPY becomes a standout buy.
TVC:DXY
FRGNT
LONG OPPORTUNITYin daily tf market price form hhs and hls
in monthly tf there is bullish engulfing cs formation
general market trend is uptrend
weelky outlook 9-14-25weelky outlook 9-14-25 in this video i will show what i am gonnaa trade for the week.
DXY week 14/09/2025Even last week we close near to the NWOG, I still see a dxy under the 97 I don’t want to see dxy over the 97,800 I expect a reaction to the down side taking PDL and a retest to continue lower.
USD, DXY Monthly - X Marks the SpotThe US Dollar is near the mid-point of the 20-year range but for the past few months, the currency has been tangling with long-term trendlines that haven't yet shown a willingness of giving way.
The upper trendline originates in 2001 and connects to the 2020 high. This caught the low in 2023 and then again in April. Shorter-term, the weekly chart of DXY has been taking a seat on this trendline with sellers unable to yet leave it behind.
The support trendline originates in 2011 and connects to the 2021 low. This caught the low around the Q3 open and hasn't been back in play since. But - as we move towards the FOMC rate decision next week this is a big level to watch.
With the Fed widely expected to cut rates, the bigger question and likely bigger driver from next week's meeting will likely come from the bank's dot plot matrix, and if the Fed does lean towards the 125-150 bps of rate cuts that are expected into the end of next year, USD bears could finally get a shot-in-the-arm. Perhaps a bigger question behind that is whether EUR/USD can finally take on strength after the pair has stalled for the past two and a half months. - js
WILL THE BEARS CONTINUE TO BREAK THE BULLS' BACKS ???DXY ANALYSIS (Weekly Timeframe) (Chart 2)
Looking at higher times, weekly and monthly. We see that price created a long-term bullish support. We have seen the first several touches of the support line between the 28th of April 2011 and the 29th of August 2011, a total of 10 touches. We have also seen the second touches on the trendline between the 6th of January 2021 and 7nth of May 2021, about 12 touches. We are currently witnessing the third touches on the trendline. Price has already touched once the trendline on the 30th of June 2025. We are still expecting more touches and a breakthrough into the trendline. Should bulls remain weak, we will see price retest and breakaway from the trendline.
#SabaliCapital
#TechnicalAnnalysis
#DXY
12.09.25 Morning ForecastPairs on Watch -
FX:EURUSD
FX:USDCAD
FX:NZDUSD
A short overview of the instruments I am looking at for today, multi-timeframe analysis down to what I will be looking at for an entry. Enjoy!
