FTSE Challenges Key Resistance - Breakout or False Dawn?UK100 Technical Analysis: 🇬🇧 FTSE Challenges Key Resistance - Breakout or False Dawn? 🌅
Asset: UK100 (FTSE 100 Index CFD)
Analysis Date: September 5, 2025
Current Closing Price: 9,222.0 (as of 11:54 PM UTC+4)
Timeframes Analyzed: 1H, 4H, D, W
Executive Summary & Market Outlook 🧐
The UK100 is testing a critical technical and psychological resistance zone between 9,200 and 9,250. 🚧 This level has acted as a significant barrier in the past. The index is in a near-term uptrend but remains in a broader multi-month consolidation phase. A decisive breakout above 9,250 could signal the start of a new bullish leg, while a rejection here would reinforce the range-bound narrative and trigger a pullback. This analysis provides a clear roadmap for intraday 🎯 and swing traders 📈 navigating this pivotal level.
Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis 🔍
1. Trend Analysis (Daily & 4-Hour Chart):
Primary Trend: 🟡 Range-Bound (Neutral). Price is trapped within a larger consolidation rectangle between ~8,800 and 9,250.
Short-Term Trend: 🟢 Bullish. The recent rally from the 9,000 support has been strong, bringing price to the upper boundary of the range.
2. Key Chart Patterns & Theories:
Range-Bound Consolidation 📊: The dominant pattern is a large rectangle. The current test of the range high (~9,250) is a make-or-break moment. A breakout would be significant, while a rejection is a classic range-trading signal.
Elliott Wave Theory 🌊: The move off the recent low looks corrective (3 waves), suggesting it may be a B-wave or part of a larger consolidation pattern within the range. This reinforces the importance of the 9,250 resistance.
Ichimoku Cloud (H4/D1) ☁️: Price is trading just above the Cloud on the daily chart, indicating a tentative bullish bias. However, the Cloud is relatively flat, reflecting the lack of a strong trend. A clear break above 9,250 would see price move decisively above the Cloud.
Wyckoff Method: The price action could be interpreted as part of a potential re-accumulation phase near the top of the range. A breakout on increasing volume would confirm this.
3. Critical Support & Resistance Levels:
Resistance (R1): 9,220 - 9,250 (Key Range High & Technical Ceiling) 🚨
Resistance (R2): 9,400 (Projected Target if breakout occurs)
Current Closing Price : ~9,222
Support (S1): 9,100 - 9,150 (Immediate Support & 21-period EMA) ✅
Support (S2): 9,000 - 9,050 (Major Range Support - Must Hold) 🛡️
Support (S3): 8,800 (Ultimate Range Low & 200-day EMA)
4. Indicator Consensus:
RSI (14-period on 4H/D): Reading is near 62, in bullish territory but not yet overbought. This suggests there is room for further upside if buyers can maintain control. A bearish divergence here would be a strong sell signal.
Bollinger Bands (4H) 📏: Price is pressing against the upper band, a sign of strong short-term momentum. A rejection here could see price move back towards the middle band.
Moving Averages: The 50 and 200-day EMAs are flat, confirming the range-bound nature. The 21-period EMA on the 4H chart is key short-term dynamic support.
Volume & VWAP: A breakout above 9,250 needs to be confirmed with a significant increase in volume to be trusted. Low-volume breakouts are often false.
Trading Strategy & Forecast 🎯
A. Intraday Trading Strategy (5M - 1H Charts):
Bearish Scenario (Range Rejection Play) ⬇️: This is a classic range trade. Fade the resistance with a short position.
Entry: On clear rejection signals at 9,240-9,250 (e.g., bearish pin bar, engulfing pattern).
Stop Loss: Tight, above 9,270.
Target: 9,150 (TP1), 9,100 (TP2).
Bullish Scenario (Breakout Play) ⬆️: If price breaks out with conviction, wait for a pullback for a better entry.
Entry: On a pullback to re-test 9,220-9,230 as new support.
Stop Loss: Below 9,200.
Target: 9,350 (TP1), 9,400 (TP2).
B. Swing Trading Strategy (4H - D Charts):
Strategy: RANGE TRADING OR BREAKOUT WAIT. The most logical play is to trade the range until it breaks.
Ideal Long Zone: Near the 9,000 - 9,050 support area. ✅
Ideal Short Zone: Near the 9,220 - 9,250 resistance area. ✅
Breakout Strategy: A daily close above 9,270 would be a strong buy signal targeting 9,400+. A daily close below 8,950 would be a strong sell signal.
Risk Management & Conclusion ⚠️
Key Risk Events: UK economic data (GDP, CPI, BoE decisions) and GBP volatility are key drivers. 🔥 As a heavily international index, the FTSE is also highly sensitive to global risk sentiment and commodity prices (particularly oil and mining stocks).
Position Sizing: Trading within a range requires tight stop losses. Ensure your position size allows for a stop placed just outside the range boundaries without incurring excessive risk.
Conclusion: The UK100 is at a critical juncture. ⚖️ The battle between the bulls and the bears is concentrated at the 9,220-9,250 resistance wall. Until a decisive break occurs, the range-bound strategy is favored. Swing traders should be patient for entries near support or a confirmed breakout. Intraday traders can fade the range extremes. The next major move will be dictated by the resolution of this level. 📊
Overall Bias: 🟢 Bullish above 9,270 | 🔴 Bearish below 8,950 | 🟡 Neutral/Range-Bound between 9,000-9,250
For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade)
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Website: shunya dot trade
⚠️Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor.
UK100.F trade ideas
FTSE 100 Wave Analysis – 4 September 2025- FTSE 100 reversed from support area
- Likely to rise to resistance level 9330.00
FTSE 100 Index recently reversed from the support area between the pivotal support level 9100.00 (which has been reversing the price from July), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from August.
The upward reversal from this support area created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer, which stopped the previous wave 2.
Given the overriding daily uptrend, FTSE 100 Index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 9330.00 (which stopped the previous impulse wave 1).
No clear break of UK100 yetTRADENATION:UK100
Good morning my fellow traders!
uk100 price still within its downward trend range, currently rising but seems to have hit some consolidation around the 9150 - 9155 area.
areas to watch -
BULLS : 9162.0 has some resistance, above this is 9190.0. CAUTION around this area as the downward trend line is just above 9162.0, breaking above the trendline will see 9190.0
BEARS : watch for rejections at 9162.0, for a further pull back towards 9130.0, and 9090.0.
apply your risk management during this stage as it may break upwards pushing towards a new potential ATH, or a further continuation of its downward path.
Apply your strategy, trade the range and goodluck to you!
UK100 H4 | Bullish reversal setupBased on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has bounced off the buy entry, which is a pullback support and could potentially rise from this level to the upside.
Buy entry is at 9,132.77, which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 9,066.90, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit is at 9,268.55, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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Title: FTSE 100 - Bouncing Off Lower Channel BoundaryThe price of the FTSE 100 has reached the lower boundary of a major ascending channel, which is a strong support level. Historically, the price has demonstrated a strong bounce from this area, which makes the current entry point potentially attractive.
Key Factors:
Channel Support: The price is resting on the lower boundary of a clear ascending channel.
Historical Bounce: The price has historically rebounded from this level, confirming its significance.
Idea: During the next 4 hours, I expect the price to bounce from the current level and move towards the median line of the channel.
Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. I recommend conducting your own analysis and managing your risks accordingly.
Bears in full charge on UK100My first post here so, bare with me. I trade the uk100 with the broker Tradenation. The past few days and especially last week we had high bearish movements, establishing new lower lows. seems it hasnt run out of steam just yet. trendlines and support/resistance lines waiting to be broken or bounced off of. all eyes on UK100for the next couple of days to see a continuation downtrend, or a possible break into a new upward trend making newer ATH. Trade the range, wait for the open morning breakout of the first 1 hour candle, establish high, low, wait for the test, breakout and enter trades. goodluck to every single trader here.
UK100 H4 | Potential bearish drop?UK100 is reacting off the sell entry at 9,217.39, which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to the downside.
Stop loss is at 9,268.71, which is a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 9,071.86, which is a multi swing low support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FTSE100 Uptrend continuation support at 9160The FTSE remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a corrective pullback within the broader uptrend.
Support Zone: 9160 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level.
A bullish rebound from 9160 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at:
9246 – initial resistance
9275 – psychological and structural level
9305 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed break and daily close below 9160 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward:
9130 – minor support
9090 – stronger support and potential demand zone
Outlook:
Bullish bias remains intact while the FTSE holds above 9160. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
FTSE100 surges to records despite CPI surprise but can it last?The FTSE 100 has surged to a new all-time high, defying expectations after UK inflation surprised to the upside at 3.8%. This resilience can be attributed to renewed global interest in undervalued UK stocks, particularly defensives, as investors anticipate a potential end to the BOE’s easing cycle in 2025 due to persistent price pressures.
The market remains sensitive to global cues, with attention turning to the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium. A more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve could reinforce risk aversion and further boost the FTSE’s appeal as a relative safe haven, while a dovish Fed may see flows return to US equities, posing a conditional risk to the FTSE’s rally.
From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100’s recent breakout places immediate focus on the 9,367–9,400 resistance zone, which marks the upper boundary of the latest upward channel. A sustained daily close above 9,400 could open the door to further upside, targeting the psychological 9,500 level next.
On the downside, initial support is seen at 9,200, with a break below there potentially exposing the 9,050–9,000 area for a deeper pullback. Traders should watch for confirmation of direction at these levels, as volatility may increase around key macro events.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
FTSE 100 UK100 Technical Analysis: Weekly Forecast# FTSE 100 UK100 Technical Analysis: Advanced Multi-Timeframe Trading Strategy & Weekly Forecast
Current Price: 9,191.30 (As of August 30, 2025, 11:54 AM UTC+4)
Asset Class: UK100 / FTSE 100 Index
Analysis Date: August 30, 2025
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Executive Summary
The FTSE 100 Index (UK100) continues to demonstrate resilient performance, trading at 9,191.30 points with solid fundamental support from recent Bank of England policy accommodation. Recent market data shows the GB100 reached 9,199 points on August 29, 2025, maintaining a monthly gain of 0.68% and an impressive 9.82% year-over-year advance. Our comprehensive technical analysis reveals the index is positioned for potential continuation toward the 9,525.47 analytical target by year-end 2025, supported by dovish monetary policy and improving technical confluence across multiple timeframes.
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Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis
Elliott Wave Analysis
The FTSE 100 exhibits a complex corrective structure within a larger degree impulse sequence:
Primary Count: Completing Wave 5 of (3) within an extended bull market cycle
Alternative Count: ABC corrective completion transitioning to new impulse
Immediate Target: 9,300-9,400 (Wave 5 extension)
Extended Target: 9,525-9,600 (Major wave completion zone)
Invalidation Level: Break below 8,950 (Wave 4 low)
Long-term Projection: 10,200-10,500 potential by mid-2026
Wyckoff Market Structure Analysis
Current price action demonstrates characteristics of a Wyckoff Re-accumulation Phase:
Phase: Late Stage Re-accumulation with signs of Markup beginning
Volume Analysis: Institutional absorption evident on declines below 9,100
Price Action: Narrowing consolidation ranges with higher low formation
Composite Operator Activity: Smart money accumulation at support levels
Market Structure: Building energy for next major upward movement
W.D. Gann Comprehensive Analysis
Square of 9 Analysis:
- Current price 9,191.30 positioned near significant Gann resistance level
- Next major Gann square: 9,409 (180-degree rotation from recent low)
- Time and price convergence: September 15-22, 2025 (Autumn Equinox influence)
- Critical Gann levels: 9,216, 9,409, 9,604 (geometric progressions)
Angle Theory Application:
- 1x1 Rising Angle Support: 9,050-9,100 (primary trend support)
- 2x1 Accelerated Angle: 9,300-9,400 (next resistance cluster)
- 1x2 Support Angle: 8,850-8,950 (major correction boundary)
- 1x4 Long-term Support: 8,500-8,600 (secular bull market support)
Time Cycle Analysis:
- 84-day cycle completion anticipated: Mid-September 2025
- Seasonal Gann Pattern: September-October historically bullish for UK markets
- Major time window: October 8-18, 2025 (next significant turning point)
- Annual cycle: Year-end strength typically supports FTSE performance
Price Forecasting & Time Harmonics:
- Immediate resistance: 9,240-9,280
- Primary target: 9,350-9,400
- Extended projection: 9,525-9,600
- Time harmony suggests acceleration after September 18, 2025
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Japanese Candlestick & Harmonic Pattern Analysis
Recent Candlestick Formations (Daily Chart)
Bullish Engulfing: August 26-27 showing strong buying pressure
Piercing Pattern: August 28-29 confirming support at 9,150 level
Long Lower Shadows: Multiple occurrences indicating accumulation
Volume Validation: Increasing volume on up days, declining on down days
Harmonic Pattern Recognition
Bullish Gartley Completion: 9,050-9,150 zone (recent successful test)
ABCD Pattern Active: Targeting 9,375-9,425 completion zone
Potential Butterfly Formation: Monitoring for completion at 9,500-9,600
Fibonacci Confluence: 1.618 extension projects to 9,387 from August low
Advanced Harmonic Analysis
Three Drives Pattern: Currently developing third drive toward 9,400+
Cypher Pattern Potential: Reversal consideration at 9,550-9,650
Deep Crab Formation: Long-term pattern suggesting 9,800+ targets
AB=CD Equality: Multiple time and price relationships converging
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Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Analysis
Current Cloud Structure (Daily Chart)
Price Position: Above Kumo cloud indicating bullish trend continuation
Tenkan-sen (9-period): 9,167 (short-term dynamic support)
Kijun-sen (26-period): 9,124 (medium-term trend baseline)
Senkou Span A: 9,146 (leading span A - immediate support)
Senkou Span B: 9,087 (leading span B - key cloud support)
Chikou Span: Positioned above historical price action (bullish confirmation)
Future Kumo Analysis (26 periods ahead):
- Ascending cloud formation supporting continued bullish bias
- Future support zone: 9,200-9,300 (forward-looking cloud support)
- Kumo thickness increasing, suggesting strengthening trend
Ichimoku Trading Signals
TK Cross: Tenkan above Kijun (active bullish signal)
Price vs Cloud: Sustained positioning above cloud
Chikou Span Clear: No interference with historical price levels
Cloud Breakout: Recent bullish breakthrough confirmed
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Technical Indicators Comprehensive Analysis
RSI (Relative Strength Index) Multi-Timeframe
Daily RSI: 62.4 (healthy bullish momentum, room for expansion)
Weekly RSI: 58.7 (positive trend with upside potential)
4H RSI: 65.8 (approaching but not yet overbought)
RSI Divergence Analysis: No bearish divergence detected, momentum intact
Bollinger Bands Analysis
Current Position: Price approaching upper band (9,220 level)
Band Width: Contracting after recent expansion (consolidation phase)
%B Indicator: 0.72 (strong positioning without extreme reading)
Squeeze Indicator: Preparing for next volatility expansion
VWAP Analysis (Volume Weighted Average Price)
Daily VWAP: 9,154 (key dynamic support level)
Weekly VWAP: 9,089 (intermediate support zone)
Monthly VWAP: 9,067 (major trend support)
Volume Profile: Significant acceptance above 9,100 level
Moving Average Structure Analysis
10 EMA: 9,158 (immediate dynamic support)
20 EMA: 9,136 (short-term trend support)
50 SMA: 9,087 (intermediate trend support)
100 SMA: 9,023 (key trend support)
200 SMA: 8,934 (major secular support)
Moving Average Alignment:
- Perfect bullish alignment across all timeframes
- Golden Cross pattern firmly established (50/200 SMA)
- Price trading above all major moving averages
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Support & Resistance Analysis
Primary Resistance Levels
1. R1: 9,240-9,280 (immediate Gann resistance cluster)
2. R2: 9,350-9,400 (2x1 Gann angle and harmonic completion)
3. R3: 9,525-9,600 (Major Elliott Wave target and analytical forecast)
4. R4: 9,750-9,800 (Long-term harmonic projection)
5. R5: 10,000-10,200 (Psychological and secular targets)
Primary Support Levels
1. S1: 9,124 (Kijun-sen and recent swing support)
2. S2: 9,050-9,100 (1x1 Gann angle and harmonic support)
3. S3: 8,950-9,000 (Elliott Wave invalidation boundary)
4. S4: 8,850-8,900 (1x2 Gann angle and 100 SMA confluence)
5. S5: 8,750-8,800 (Major correction target zone)
Volume-Based Price Levels
High Volume Node: 9,050-9,150 (institutional accumulation zone)
Low Volume Gap: 9,200-9,300 (potential rapid movement area)
Volume Resistance: 9,400+ (historical distribution levels)
POC (Point of Control): 9,125 (maximum volume acceptance)
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Multi-Timeframe Trading Strategy Framework
Scalping Strategy (5M & 15M Charts)
5-Minute Timeframe Methodology:
Entry Criteria: Pullbacks to 20 EMA with RSI <30 oversold
Profit Targets: 25-40 points per scalping trade
Stop Loss Parameters: 15-20 points maximum risk exposure
Volume Confirmation: Above-average volume required on breakouts
Optimal Time Windows: 8:00-10:00 AM and 2:00-4:00 PM GMT
15-Minute Scalping Framework:
Range Identification: Current consolidation 9,150-9,220
Breakout Methodology: Volume spike confirmation above 9,220
Mean Reversion: Fade extreme moves beyond 2 standard deviations
Risk Management: Maximum 3 positions simultaneously, 1:1.5 minimum R:R
Intraday Trading Strategies (30M, 1H, 4H)
30-Minute Chart Approach:
Trend Following: Long positions above EMA confluence (9,140)
Pattern Recognition: Flag and pennant completions near resistance
Target Methodology: Initial 9,280, extended 9,350-9,400
Risk Parameters: 50-70 point stops, 2:1 reward-to-risk minimum
1-Hour Chart Strategy:
Momentum Confirmation: MACD histogram expansion on bullish crossovers
Support Trading: Long entries from 9,100-9,150 support zone
Breakout Management: Monitor 9,240 level for continuation signals
Session Focus: London session volatility (8:00 AM - 4:30 PM GMT)
4-Hour Swing Framework:
Cloud Strategy: Long positions on successful Ichimoku cloud bounces
Elliott Wave Guidance: Ride Wave 5 extensions toward major targets
Fibonacci Utilization: 38.2% and 61.8% retracements for optimal entries
Position Duration: 2-7 days typical holding period for swing trades
Swing Trading Strategy (Daily, Weekly, Monthly)
Daily Chart Methodology:
Breakout Strategy: Long on sustained breaks above 9,240 with volume
Accumulation Zones: Build positions on tests of 9,050-9,150
Target Sequence: 9,350 → 9,525 → 9,750 progressive profit-taking
Position Management: Scale entries across multiple time frame confirmations
Weekly Chart Perspective:
Primary Trend: Strongly bullish above 8,950 weekly support
Swing Objectives: 9,525-9,600 zone for major profit realization
Risk Assessment: Weekly closes below 8,850 signal trend reversal
Monthly Chart Analysis:
Secular Trend: Multi-year bull market structure intact
Long-term Targets: 10,500-11,000 by 2026-2027 projections
Major Support: 8,200-8,500 (unlikely to test in current cycle)
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Daily Trading Plan: September 2-6, 2025
Monday, September 2, 2025
Market Status: Full UK trading session
Technical Setup:
Resistance Levels: 9,240, 9,280, 9,320
Support Levels: 9,150, 9,100, 9,050
Expected Range: 9,120-9,260
Trading Strategy:
Morning Session (8:00-12:00 GMT): Monitor for overnight gap analysis
Afternoon Session (12:00-16:30 GMT): Focus on US market correlation
Primary Setup: Long 9,140-9,170 targeting 9,240-9,280
Alternative Setup: Fade any move above 9,280 without volume confirmation
Risk Considerations:
- Bank of England policy speculation impact
- End-of-month institutional flows
- Brexit-related news sensitivity
Tuesday, September 3, 2025
Market Outlook: Post-Labor Day momentum with full global participation
Key Events & Strategy:
UK Economic Data: Manufacturing PMI and construction data releases
Technical Focus: 9,240 breakout attempt with volume validation
Entry Strategy: Long 9,180-9,220 on consolidation completion
Target Areas: 9,300-9,350 on successful breakout scenarios
Risk Management:
- Reduced position sizes due to data event risk
- Monitor GBP/USD correlation for confirmation signals
- Prepare for potential volatility around PMI releases
Wednesday, September 4, 2025
Market Outlook: Mid-week consolidation with building momentum
Strategic Framework:
Technical Pattern: Monitor for bull flag or pennant completion
Volume Analysis: Require institutional participation for sustained moves
Support Testing: Strength of 9,150-9,180 zone crucial for continuation
Momentum Signals: MACD and RSI alignment for directional bias
Trading Approach:
Range Strategy: Buy support, sell resistance until breakout
Breakout Preparation: Position for 9,240+ level clearance
Risk Assessment: Political developments and central bank communications
Thursday, September 5, 2025
Market Outlook: Pre-weekly close positioning dynamics
Key Considerations:
Technical Levels: 9,300-9,350 resistance cluster testing
Institutional Activity: Pension fund rebalancing flows
Pattern Development: Harmonic pattern completion monitoring
Global Correlation: Monitor S&P 500 and DAX for confirmation
Execution Strategy:
Momentum Continuation: Above 9,280 favors 9,400 target
Profit-Taking Zones: Scale out at 9,320, 9,380, 9,425
Risk Management: Tighten stops as resistance approaches
Friday, September 6, 2025
Market Outlook: Weekly close significance and weekend positioning
Final Session Strategy:
Weekly Close Target: Above 9,200 maintains bullish structure
Profit Preservation: Secure gains from successful breakout trades
Gap Risk Management: Prepare for weekend news flow impact
Position Review: Maintain swing positions with appropriate stops
Critical Levels:
Weekly Bullish: Close above 9,220
Weekly Neutral: 9,150-9,220 range
Weekly Bearish: Close below 9,150
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Macroeconomic & Policy Analysis
Bank of England Policy Impact
The Bank of England's recent monetary policy decisions significantly influence FTSE 100 performance. The Committee voted to reduce Bank Rate to 4% in August 2025, representing continued accommodation that supports equity valuations and corporate profitability across the index.
Interest Rate Environment
The next Bank Rate decision is due on September 18, 2025, with economists and markets expecting at least one more rate cut in 2025. This dovish policy trajectory provides fundamental support for equity market performance.
Economic Growth Outlook
The UK economic environment presents improving conditions with downside domestic and geopolitical risks around economic activity remaining, although trade policy uncertainty has diminished somewhat. This stabilization supports continued FTSE 100 outperformance.
Inflation Dynamics
The Bank of England predicted that inflation would follow a bumpy path and expects it to rise to around 4% in September, but this increase should be only temporary, and inflation should fall back to 2%.
Key Risk Factors
1. Monetary Policy Uncertainty: Timing and magnitude of future rate cuts
2. Global Trade Relations: Post-Brexit trade relationship developments
3. Currency Impact: GBP strength/weakness affecting multinational earnings
4. Energy Sector Exposure: Oil price volatility impacting major components
5. Political Stability: Government policy consistency and business confidence
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Sector Analysis & FTSE 100 Component Review
Sector Performance Dynamics
Financial Services: Benefiting from interest rate normalization process
Energy Sector: Oil majors providing dividend yield attraction
Consumer Goods: Defensive characteristics supporting index stability
Technology: Limited exposure compared to global peers, potential upside
Healthcare: Pharmaceutical giants providing stability and growth
Dividend Yield Analysis
The FTSE 100's attractive dividend yield continues to support international investor interest, with share buybacks remaining a significant component of shareholder returns supported by robust cash generation of these companies.
Valuation Assessment
There's little doubt that the UK's blue-chip index is undervalued compared with overseas peers, providing fundamental support for continued outperformance and multiple expansion potential.
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Multi-Asset Correlation Analysis
Currency Relationships
GBP/USD Impact: Inverse correlation with multinational earnings (0.65 negative)
EUR/GBP Influence: European trade relationship effects (0.45 positive)
USD Strength: Dollar appreciation pressures on international revenues
Global Index Correlations
S&P 500 Relationship: Moderate positive correlation (0.58)
DAX Connection: Strong European correlation (0.74)
Nikkei Influence: Asian market sentiment transmission (0.42)
Commodity Exposure
Oil Price Sensitivity: Energy sector weighting creates positive correlation
Gold Relationship: Limited direct exposure, inverse correlation during risk-off
Base Metals: Industrial exposure through mining components
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Risk Management Comprehensive Framework
Position Sizing Methodology
Scalping Operations: 0.5-1% account risk per individual trade
Intraday Positions: 1-2% maximum account risk exposure
Swing Positions: 2-3% account risk per established position
Maximum Portfolio Exposure: 7% total UK100-related risk allocation
Stop-Loss Implementation
Scalping Stops: 15-25 points maximum loss per trade
Intraday Stops: 50-75 points based on volatility conditions
Swing Trading Stops: Below key support levels (9,050 for current longs)
Technical Invalidation: Elliott Wave and pattern breakdown levels
Profit-Taking Strategy
Scaling Method: Take 30% at first target, 40% at second target, hold 30%
Trailing Stops: Implement after achieving 2:1 favorable risk-reward
Time-Based Exits: Close before major BoE announcements and data releases
Pattern-Based Exits: Honor harmonic and Elliott Wave completion zones
Risk Monitoring Systems
Daily Risk Assessment: Maximum drawdown tolerance 3%
Weekly Risk Review: Position correlation and concentration analysis
Monthly Performance Evaluation: Strategy effectiveness and adjustment needs
Stress Testing: Scenario analysis for major market disruptions
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Weekly Outlook Probability Matrix
Bullish Scenario (Probability: 70%)
Primary Catalysts:
- Bank of England maintains accommodative policy stance
- UK economic data shows continued stability/improvement
- Technical breakout above 9,240 with volume confirmation
- Global risk-on sentiment supporting equity markets
Price Objectives:
- Initial Target: 9,300-9,350
- Extended Target: 9,400-9,525
- Optimistic Scenario: 9,600+
Supporting Factors:
- Dividend yield attraction for international investors
- Undervaluation relative to global peers
- Technical momentum building across timeframes
Neutral/Consolidation Scenario (Probability: 20%)
Characteristics:
- Range-bound trading between 9,100-9,280
- Mixed economic signals and policy uncertainty
- Technical indecision at key resistance levels
- Reduced trading volumes and institutional activity
Trading Parameters:
- Upper Range: 9,250-9,280
- Lower Range: 9,100-9,150
- Strategy Focus: Range trading and volatility contraction plays
Bearish Scenario (Probability: 10%)
Risk Catalysts:
- Unexpected hawkish shift from Bank of England
- Significant deterioration in UK economic indicators
- Major geopolitical shock or financial system stress
- Technical breakdown below critical support at 9,050
Downside Objectives:
- Initial Target: 8,950-9,000
- Extended Target: 8,800-8,850
- Stress Scenario: 8,600-8,750
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Advanced Trading Techniques & Market Microstructure
Order Flow Analysis
Institutional Activity: Large block trades above 9,150 indicate accumulation
Retail Sentiment: Contrarian indicator showing excessive bearishness
Options Market: Put/call ratio neutral, no extreme positioning detected
ETF Flows: Consistent inflows into UK equity ETFs supporting demand
High-Frequency Trading Considerations
Algorithmic Support: 9,150-9,180 zone shows HFT buying interest
Liquidity Zones: Deep liquidity above 9,200 and below 9,100
Speed of Execution: Critical during London market open and close
Spread Dynamics: Tightening spreads indicating improving liquidity
Options Market Intelligence
Gamma Exposure: Positive gamma above 9,180, negative below 9,100
Key Strike Concentrations: 9,200 calls and 9,100 puts high open interest
Implied Volatility: Currently underpriced relative to realized volatility
Options Skew: Slight put premium indicating modest hedging activity
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Seasonal & Cyclical Analysis
Historical Seasonal Patterns
September Performance: Historically mixed, average +0.8% monthly return
Q4 Seasonality: Strong fourth quarter performance, average +4.2%
Year-End Effects: Portfolio rebalancing typically supports FTSE 100
Dividend Calendar: Major distributions in Q1 and Q3 affecting flows
Economic Cycle Positioning
Current Phase: Late cycle expansion with monetary accommodation
Sector Rotation: Value sectors outperforming growth in current environment
Interest Rate Cycle: Declining rate environment supporting equity multiples
Credit Cycle: Stable credit conditions supporting corporate expansion
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Technology & Innovation Impact
Fintech Integration
Digital Banking: Major FTSE components adapting to digital transformation
Payment Systems: Evolution affecting traditional banking models
Regulatory Technology: Compliance costs and operational efficiency factors
Cryptocurrency Influence: Limited direct exposure, regulatory developments
ESG Considerations
Environmental Standards: Increasing focus on sustainability metrics
Social Governance: Stakeholder capitalism trends affecting valuations
Regulatory Compliance: ESG reporting requirements and investment flows
Transition Risks: Energy transition affecting traditional sector weights
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Conclusion & Strategic Outlook
The FTSE 100 Index (UK100) presents a compelling technical and fundamental investment case with multiple confluences supporting continued upside momentum toward the analytical forecast target of £9,525.47 by the end of 2025. The combination of accommodative Bank of England policy, attractive dividend yields, and constructive technical patterns creates a favorable risk-reward environment.
Critical Success Factors:
1. Monetary Policy Support: Continued BoE accommodation through 2025
2. Technical Breakout Confirmation: Sustained move above 9,240 with volume
3. Economic Stability: UK data showing resilience and gradual improvement
4. Global Risk Environment: Maintained risk-on sentiment supporting equities
Key Monitoring Priorities:
1. September 18 BoE Decision: Next policy rate announcement impact
2. Technical Level Behavior: Price action at 9,240-9,280 resistance cluster
3. Volume Patterns: Institutional participation in breakout attempts
4. Global Correlation Changes: Relationship dynamics with major indices
Strategic Recommendation:
Maintain constructive bias with tactical flexibility, emphasizing disciplined risk management while positioning for probable continuation of the multi-year bull market in UK equities. The September 15-22 Gann time window represents a critical juncture for intermediate-term directional confirmation.
The confluence of technical, fundamental, and policy factors suggests high probability for achieving the 9,400-9,525 target zone within the forecast timeframe, while downside risk appears well-contained above the 9,050 support complex.
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*This comprehensive analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, and readers should conduct their own research and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions. Always implement appropriate risk management strategies and position sizing methodologies.*
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Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor.
FTSE corrective pullback, resistance at 9245The FTSE remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a corrective pullback within the broader uptrend.
Support Zone: 9160 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level.
A bullish rebound from 9160 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at:
9246 – initial resistance
9275 – psychological and structural level
9305 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed break and daily close below 9160 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward:
9130 – minor support
9090 – stronger support and potential demand zone
Outlook:
Bullish bias remains intact while the FTSE holds above 9160. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
FTSE overbought pullback support at 9220The FTSE remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a corrective pullback within the broader uptrend.
Support Zone: 9220 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level.
A bullish rebound from 9220 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at:
9360 – initial resistance
9380 – psychological and structural level
9400 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed break and daily close below 9220 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward:
9190 – minor support
9160 – stronger support and potential demand zone
Outlook:
Bullish bias remains intact while the FTSE holds above 9220. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
#FTSE100 hits all-time high — what’s next, higher still?On August 22, 2025 , #FTSE100 closed at an all-time high of 9355.60 points . The main driver of growth was a surge of foreign capital, especially from U.S. investors seeking undervalued assets and boosting demand for UK equities. Defense and commodity companies led the rally, adding optimism amid strong corporate earnings and high dividends. Some bank stocks corrected lower, but the weight of industrial and export-oriented leaders was enough to push the index to record territory.
Why the FTSE 100 is setting new records: 5 growth factors:
Strong UK macroeconomic indicators: Steady GDP growth and a narrowing trade deficit reinforce the foundation for further #FTSE100 gains.
Inflow of foreign investments: Massive capital inflows from the U.S. and other countries have shifted focus and funds into UK equities, strongly supporting the index.
Outperformers among exporters and defensive sectors: Growth in defense, mining, and financial companies provided fundamental support to the index’s upward momentum.
Dividend appeal and low valuations: #FTSE100 offers high dividends and relatively low P/E ratios, making it attractive for investors seeking both yield and value safety.
Global diversification and resilience to local risks: The multinational structure of companies and dollar-based revenues shield the index from domestic economic and currency weaknesses, ensuring long-term stability.
The current #FTSE100 rally is the result of a powerful mix: foreign capital inflows, strength in defense and commodity sectors, and appealing dividends against a backdrop of moderate global rate policy. FreshForex analysts note that if investment flows persist and corporate leaders continue to deliver strong earnings and buybacks, the index may remain near record highs.
UK100 Weekly hesitation, time for correction SHORTHello
fellow traders and glass ball tellers :D finally a moment of truth-ARE WE DOING SOOOO WELLL??? hmm... By talking to people and checking out the chart looks like we are in a bubble which needs relief of the pressure for always doing so well, time will show, my idea, don't copy as it's not an advise, always protect your capital whatever you do, your money your responsibility, take care good luck
How Charts Can Help You Manage Risk in the MarketsOver the past few hours, the FTSE has experienced a small sell-off. Nothing dramatic, and certainly not enough to suggest the long-term trend is in danger. But moments like this highlight why charting tools are essential for managing risk, whether you’re a short-term trader or a long-term investor.
Reading the 4-Hour Chart
Looking at the 4-hour timeframe, the Ichimoku cloud has been a reliable support since July. Right now, the base of the cloud sits around 9150, providing a clear short-term reference point. If prices dip toward this level, traders can use it as a guide for setting stops or reassessing positions.
Key Support Levels
Charts allow us to identify where the market has repeatedly found support in the past. These levels often become key reference points for risk management:
• 8911 – former March high, retested in June, now acting as near-term support
• 8476 – major level tested multiple times in May and August
• 8044 & 7909 – deeper, longer-term support areas
The important lesson here: the more often a support or resistance level is tested, the stronger it tends to become. Think of them like fine wine — age and repeated testing increase their significance. 🍷
Long-Term Trend Still Intact
When we zoom out to the weekly and monthly charts, the trend is still pointing higher. Even if the market corrects back toward 8911 or 8476, the bigger picture suggests this would be a healthy correction, not a reversal.
What This Means for Risk Management
Using charts isn’t just about predicting where the market might go — it’s about defining your risk:
• Identify support and resistance levels where you would reassess your position
• Use indicators (like the Ichimoku cloud) to find natural “lines in the sand”
• Accept that corrections are part of an uptrend, but know your tolerance for risk
By combining short-term and long-term charts, you give yourself a roadmap. That roadmap doesn’t guarantee outcomes, but it does help you avoid being caught off guard.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Always assess your own risk and position size before making trading decisions.
FTSE bullish breakout testing resistance at 9360The FTSE remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a corrective pullback within the broader uptrend.
Support Zone: 9220 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level.
A bullish rebound from 9220 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at:
9360 – initial resistance
9380 – psychological and structural level
9400 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed break and daily close below 9220 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward:
9190 – minor support
9160 – stronger support and potential demand zone
Outlook:
Bullish bias remains intact while the FTSE holds above 9220. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
FTSE 100 Index Closes at an All-Time HighFTSE 100 Index Closes at an All-Time High
Earlier, when analysing the chart of the UK’s FTSE 100 stock index, we outlined an ascending channel and anticipated a scenario with a continued upward trend and an attempt to establish a new historical high.
Since then:
→ The index has risen by almost 5%. The channel structure has shifted slightly, but not dramatically – after adjustment, it remains relevant given the latest price dynamics.
→ Yesterday, the stock index climbed to 9,325, thereby setting an all-time high.
Bullish sentiment was supported by news of a shrinking public sector deficit and increased private sector output. How might the situation develop further?
Technical Analysis of the FTSE 100 Chart
From a bullish perspective:
→ The market remains in bullish territory.
→ The price successfully broke through the resistance zone at 9,180–9,200 (in effect since late July).
→ The 0→1 impulse was strong, signalling buyers’ dominance.
→ The price remains above the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 0→1 impulse, which may serve as support during a pullback.
→ Additional support could come from the green zone, where bulls were strong during the breakout above the 9,180–9,200 resistance area.
From a bearish perspective: the upper boundary of the channel has confirmed its role as resistance. At the same time, peaks 1 and 2 have formed:
→ They show signs of a bearish Double Top pattern, creating bearish divergence with the RSI indicator.
→ The fact that the second peak is slightly above the first adds weight to the bearish case: this could have been a bull trap for late buyers, while in reality the rally may already be exhausted.
The ability of bulls to keep the price above the green zone may confirm the strength of the FTSE 100. Nevertheless, in the short term, scenarios involving pullbacks and retests of the mentioned support levels might be realised (as seen in early August, when the 9,040 level was tested in an aggressive manner).
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FTSE bullish rally resistance at 9360The FTSE remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a corrective pullback within the broader uptrend.
Support Zone: 9220 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level.
A bullish rebound from 9220 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at:
9360 – initial resistance
9380 – psychological and structural level
9400 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed break and daily close below 9220 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward:
9190 – minor support
9160 – stronger support and potential demand zone
Outlook:
Bullish bias remains intact while the FTSE holds above 9220. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
UK100 Bullish Heist: Ready to Loot the Upside?🎯 TRADE PLAN: UK100 BULLISH ROBBERY HEIST! 🎯
Asset: UK100 "FTSE 100 Index Cash" | Type: Indices CFD | Style: Swing & Scalping Larceny
Dearest Fellow Thieves & Money Bandits! 🤑💸🤵♂️👩💼
The vault doors to the UK100 are creaking open! Our intel confirms a BULLISH HEIST is in play. The big money is sitting pretty, and it's our duty to... redistribute it. Time to execute the plan with precision!
🗺️ THE HEIST BLUEPRINT
🎯 MISSION: BULLISH ROBBERY (LONG)
🔑 ENTRY:
The Thief's way is MULTIPLE LIMIT ORDER LAYERS! 🎰 We don't just enter; we infiltrate at all key levels. Deploy your buy limits at these coordinates:
👉 LAYER 1: 9240.0
👉 LAYER 2: 9260.0
👉 LAYER 3: 9280.0
👉 LAYER 4: 9300.0
(Pro Thieves: Add more layers based on your capital!)
🛑 STOP LOSS:
This is the Thief's OG Stop Loss @ 9160.0.
Attention Ladies & Gentlemen of refined taste: Adjust your SL based on your own risk appetite and strategy. Protect your capital!
🚨 TARGET - ESCAPE PLAN:
The police barricade is set up near 9600.0. Our escape car is waiting at 9520.0! 🚓💨
ESCAPE WITH THE STOLEN MONEY BEFORE TARGET! Do not get greedy and get caught! A true thief lives to rob another day.
👁️ NOTES FOR THE CREW:
Scalpers: Only swipe bags on the LONG side. Quick in, quick out. Use a tight trailing SL to lock in your stolen profits! 💰
Swing Traders: This is your masterpiece. Load up in layers and let the heist unfold.
⚠️ NEWS ALERT: High-impact news is like the security alarm going off! 🚨 Avoid new trades during these times and secure your running positions with trails.
💖 SUPPORT THE MISSION
💥 SMASH THAT "BOOST" BUTTON! 💥
Fuel our next heist! Your support allows us to case more joints and bring you the most profitable robbery plans. Let's make stealing money look easy! 🏆❤️🎯
Stay tuned, the next heist is already being planned... 🤑🐱👤🤫